149th Kentucky Derby Predictions
The 149th Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday, May 6th at Churchill Downs and even though Forte is the morning-line favorite, does he offer bettors the best value when it comes to betting the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown?
Kentucky Derby Event Details
What: 149th running of the Kentucky Derby
Where: Churchill Downs, Lexington, KY
When: Saturday, May 6, 6:57 p.m. ET (post time)
Watch: NBC and Peacock
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
Forte is currently 3/1 to win the Kentucky Derby this evening, followed by Tapit Trice at 5/1. Angel of Empire is currently 8/1, followed by Derma Sotogake at 10/1. Two Phil’s and Kingsbarns are 12/1, respectively, followed by Verifying and Mage at 15/1, respectively.
Continuing with the morning lines, Confidence Game and Mandarin Hero are both 20/1, respectively, while Hit Show, Disarm, Rocket Can and Cyclone Mischief are all 30/1, respectively. The biggest long shot odds belong to Reincarnate, Jace’s Road, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and King Russell at 50/1, respectively. Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar have all been scratched.
149th Kentucky Derby Betting Predictions
OPTION 1: Tapit Trice (5/1)
Tapit Trice was purchased for $1.3 million, which is the most of any horse in Saturday’s field. He also has the most recent prep, which came in the Blue Grass Stakes and enters the Derby with wins in four of his five lifetime starts. Both Tapit Trice and Forte were trained by Todd Pletcher, who has trained more Kentucky Derby runners than any trainer all-time. While Pletcher hasn’t had a ton of success in the Derby – only 2017 Always Dreaming and 2010 Super Saver went on to win – the odds are high that one of the thoroughbreds he trained will be in the winner’s circle tonight.
OPTION 2: Disarm (30/1)
Of course, Pletcher does not hold the crown of all-time winningest trainer in Churchill Downs race history. That honor belongs to Steve Asmussen, who trained Disarm ahead of Saturday’s race. Disarm will be the 25th runner in the Derby Asmussen has trained, which is the most of any trainer without a win. Last year, he trained post-time favorite Epicenter, who finished second.
OPTION 3: Forte (3/1)
No, there’s not much value in taking the favorite but at 3/1, which is why I’ve listed him third. That said, he’s won six out of his seven lifetime starts, including four Grade 1 stakes. Today he’ll look to become the third horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, along with Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007. Since 1985, the first year the Juvenile champion could run in the Kentucky Derby, only seven Juvenile champions have been the post-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Forte has earned favorite status entering the race tonight at Churchill Downs.
