Which college teams are over hyped?
Let’s be honest, when you handicap college football games, it’s easy to like the favorite.
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The favorite looks good for a reason. Thus, it’s sometimes hard pulling the trigger with an undervalued underdog. One thing people tend to forget is that betting on underdogs can be a very profitable task. Get into the habit of looking at underdogs before you place a bet. The public loves favorites and the linesmakers know this. While this is not secret knowledge that they pump the lines up knowing the public will still bet overvalued teams anyway, most bettors can’t stomach going against the stronger team.
For example, in college football this season Louisville has been one of those favorites that has simply been overvalued. They are 4-5 ATS as the public loves to jump on the Cardinals due to their quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, who was a Heisman candidate early in the season. Unfortunately, for those who bet on Louisville, they have covered just one of their last five games.
Betting underdogs is not always about picking the best team; it’s about the selecting best team to cover in that matchup. The better team doesn’t always win football games. More importantly, while most do win, they don’t always cover.
Here’s some advice: If you looking for an underdog, don’t bet it early. In most cases, bettors will move the line to give the underdog extra value, which is when you should grab it.
But beware, there are some underdogs that look too easy. Be careful of the “public’s underdogs.” Sometimes there is a team that has a key injury or suspension and would normally be a favorite, but is an underdog against a top team. Those are the types of underdogs that the public usually jumps on. You should stay away.
A good example earlier this season would be Miami (Fla.) against Florida State. The public loved the Hurricanes getting 21 and they played well for a half, but then FSU took it to them in the second half, winning 41-14. Miami-Florida is an example of a public team that fans love to bet on but going into Saturday, they’ve lost four straight against the spread.
Duke is the team people love to bet on in college basketball, but are considered bottom feeders on football. They’ve been a joke for the last three decades until David Cutcliffe took over as a coach. This year, they’ve covered their last four and as an underdog. In other words, many teams have media labeled “good team” or “bad team” associated with them and this gets stuck in the public’s head. Strip these labels off. Forget the team name when handicapping. Look at stats, film and information. Things that matter. And don’t be afraid to go against the hype. That’s where you’ll find your best value and will be rewarded.
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