We are entering that interesting point of the NBA season, a point where plenty of teams have to weigh up their priorities. With just a handful of regular season games to go, many teams have already wrapped up their qualification for the Playoffs. Others know that the season has been a bust and will be looking at the summer offseason as a chance to regroup.
For bettors, the tail-end of the regular season can be both an opportunity and a bit of a minefield. Teams who have already qualified for the Playoffs must strike a balance between playing the remaining games and keeping players fresh and healthy for the business part of the season. Of course, there is still plenty to play for, including the attainment of a better seeding, yet you can be sure that some teams will have an eye on the Playoffs.
OKC can look forward to the Playoffs
A case in point is the Oklahoma City Thunder. On paper, betting on the OKC to keep winning is a no-brainer. They’ve arguably been the most impressive team in the NBA this season, and it’s almost certain that OKC will end up with the best win-loss record. Yet, they are guaranteed to be the Western Conference’s No.1 Seed, so nothing the team does can change their status going into the Playoffs. That’s a conundrum for the team’s management and bettors alike.
There are effectively two sides to the argument. On the one hand, the OKC’s management can look at the remaining games and push hard to keep up the momentum going into the Playoffs. Winning is habitual in basketball, and no team really wants to go into a postseason after having suffered a bunch of losses.
Teams may rotate the roster
On the other hand, having already guaranteed the No.1 spot, Mark Daigneault may decide to rotate his roster, keeping players fresh, resting those with niggling injuries, giving underused players more game time, and so on. The upshot is that the team may come up short against weaker opposition, especially teams that are still playing for something.
The example of OKC is just a simple one, but it does illustrate the point we are trying to make: bettors need to be aware of how each team will approach the remaining games. Player rotation is possible for teams not playing for Playoff places, and you might even argue that some teams will take their foot off the gas, even when playing their key starters. It’s up to the individual bettors to try to gain some insight into what coaches’ plans are.
Of course, that can be easier said than done, but you will want to be looking at betting odds, weighing up if you can find some value in upsets. There’s no question that each NBA team wants to win in any given situation, but if you can analyze what coaches are saying about their approach to certain games, you may be able to weigh that up against the game lines and spreads.