Kentucky Derby Betting Trends to Know
Looking for an edge when deciding which horse to back in Saturday evening’s 149th running of the Kentucky Derby? Here are some angles to consider ahead of tonight’s race at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Derby Event Details
What: 149th running of the Kentucky Derby
Where: Churchill Downs, Lexington, KY
When: Saturday, May 6, 6:57 p.m. ET (post time)
Watch: NBC and Peacock
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
Forte is currently 3/1 to win the Kentucky Derby this evening, followed by Tapit Trice at 5/1. Angel of Empire is currently 8/1, followed by Derma Sotogake at 10/1. Two Phil’s and Kingsbarns are 12/1, respectively, followed by Verifying and Mage at 15/1, respectively.
Continuing with the morning lines, Confidence Game and Mandarin Hero are both 20/1, respectively, while Hit Show, Disarm, Rocket Can and Cyclone Mischief are all 30/1, respectively. The biggest long shot odds belong to Reincarnate, Jace’s Road, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and King Russell at 50/1, respectively. Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar have all been scratched.
149th Kentucky Derby Betting Trends
Largest Payoffs
Two of the three largest payoffs on record at the Kentucky Derby have come in the last four years. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the 20 years prior to 2000, the post-time favorite did not win the race in any of them. That said, 10 post-time favorites have won this race since 2000, with an average finish of fourth. So don’t feel like you’re doing yourself a disservice by having Forte in any of your combinations tonight.
That said, if you’re more of a long-shot better, here are the five largest payoffs in the pari-mutuel era at the Kentucky Derby (all wins): Donerail $184.90 (1913); Rich Strike $163.60 (2022), Country House $132.40 (2019), Mine That Bird $103.20 (2009); Giacomo $102.60 (2005).
Post Positions
If you’re into post position trends, you might not find a bigger one that this: The No. 14 post position has a 61-year drought since its last winner, which is the longest active drought. Even though he’s the third choice on the morning lines, Angel of Empire will be battling serious history tonight at Churchill Downs.
Staying in theme, post position No. 17 is the only post position that has yet to produce a winner since 1930. That’s unfortunate news for Derma Sotogake, who is tied for the fourth-shortest morning-line odds. Derma Sotogake also comes to the Kentucky Derby after winning the UAE Derby, which is a Kentucky Derby prep race that’s produced a grand total of zero winners in 18 starts. In fact, none of those 18 horses even hit the board.
Trainers
Both Forte and Tapit Trice are trained by Todd Pletcher, who has trained more Kentucky Derby runners than any trainer all-time (65 total, including three this year). That said, only two Pletcher-trained horses went on to win the Derby: 2017 Always Dreaming and 2010 Super Saver. Among those previous 62 runners, Always Dreaming in 2017 was the only one to go off as the post-time favorite.
When it comes to trainer-based trends that you might want to pay attention to, the all-time winningest trainer at Churchill Downs is Steve Asmussen. Disarm will be the 25th runner in the Derby that Amussen has trained, which is the most of any trainer without a win. Last year, Asmussen trained post-time favorite Epicenter, who did finish as the Derby runner-up to Rich Strike.
