Public Likes Patriots
AFC East rivals clash in New England Sunday as the Patriots host the winless Miami Dolphins. Oddsmakers have made the Patriots 12-point favorites.
The Miami Dolphins kept things close in Week 1 against the Jets, but looked bad in Arizona last Sunday. They head to New England Sunday looking for their first win, but they’ll need an excellent effort from quarterback Chad Pennington and the offense. The Dolphins need more offensive playmakers and wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. could fill that void if the team could get the second year player more involved in the offense.
The Patriots certainly haven’t looked as explosive as they have in years past without quarterback Tom Brady, but the execution is still there. Backup quarterback Matt Cassel will look to lead the Patriots to their third straight victory and could have a great deal of success against a suspect Miami defense. New England should have no issues keeping the Dolphins’ offense in check.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBG Global have made the Patriots a 12-point favorite and the over/under total has been set at 36.5. Current public betting information shows that 64% of bettors favor New England to cover the 12-point spread.
The Dolphins just don’t have enough talent to beat the Patriots, but they might be able to keep things close if Pennington and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over. New England isn’t the same team with Cassel under center, and head coach Bill Belichick plays things closer to the vest without his star quarterback. Belichick will once again lean on his defense to win this one. We predict the Patriots over the Dolphins 20-3.
Dolphins at Patriots Point Spread and Over/Under Total
Key Injuries:
MIAMI
[OG] Donald Thomas IR – Ankle – 09/10/08
[WR] Tab Perry IR – Achilles – 07/27/08
NEW ENGLAND
[S] Tank Williams IR. – Knee – 08/09/08
[C] Dan Connolly missed last game %27?%27 – Knee – 09/14/08
(!) [QB] Tom Brady IR – Knee – 09/07/08
[WR] Sam Aiken missed last game %27?%27 – Knee – 09/14/08
[RB] Laurence Maroney injured last game, "?" – Shoulder – 09/15/08
[TE] Benjamin Watson missed last game %27?%27 – Knee – 09/14/08
Top Trends:
MIAMI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
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