The 150th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports and the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown will be held at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening. With a 6:57 p.m. ET post time, which contenders are worth backing the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
2024 Kentucky Derby Event Information
What: 150th Kentucky Derby
When: 6:57 p.m. ET (post time), Saturday, May 4, 2024
Where: Churchill Downs, Kentucky
Watch: NBC/Peacock
2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
While the odds are subject to change the closer we draw to post time, the current favorite is Fierceness at 5-2, followed by Sierra Leone at 3-1 and Catching Freedom at 8-1. Just a Touch and Forever Young (JPN) are both 10-1, respectively, followed by Dornoch, Mystik Dan, Just Steel, Honor Marie, Track Phantom, Stronghold and Resilience at 20-1, respectively.
As of this writing, Catalytic, T O Password (JPN), Endlessly, Domestic Product and Epic Ride are all 30-1, respectively. West Saratoga, Grand Mo the First and Society Man are all 50-1, respectively, while Encino has been scratched.
2024 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
1 Dornoch
2 Sierra Leone
3 Mystik Dan
4 Catching Freedom
5 Catalytic
6 Just Steel
7 Honor Marie
8 Just a Touch
9 Encino SCRATCHED
10 T O Password (JPN)
11 Forever Young (JPN)
12 Track Phantom
13 West Saratoga
14 Endlessly
15 Domestic Product
16 Grand Mo the First
17 Fierceness
18 Stronghold
19 Resilience
20 Society Man
21 Epic Ride
2024 Kentucky Derby Predictions
This horse is peaking at the right time. Catching Freedom won the 2024 Smarty Jones and then placed third at the 2024 Risen Star behind fellow Kentucky Derby contenders Sierra Leone and Track Phantom with an overall speed score of 91. Then, he held off Honor Marie and Tuscan Gold to claim victory at the 2024 Louisiana Derby.
In the victory at the Louisiana Derby, Catching Freedom rallied from last to finish first by one length over Honor Marie. He closed the final three furlongs in approximately :36:58, which is outstanding. Given the muddy track and the way he closes, Catching Freedom is my favorite to win this evening at Churchill Downs.
PLACE: Honor Marie (20-1)
If I like Catching Freedom, I feel compelled to also like Honor Marie’s chances of finishing in the top three tonight at Churchill Downs. As previously mentioned, he was run down at the Louisiana Derby by Catching Freedom, but Honor Marie was beaten by only one length. Even in the loss, he ran his final three furlongs in approximately :37.01, which is solid.
The one knock I have on Honor Marie is that he only has two starts under his belt this season. That said, he has as much upside as any contender in this year’s field and ran an impressive five furlongs at :59 1/5 at Churchill Downs last Friday. He’s ready to rock.
SHOW: Forever Young (10-1)
Forever Young enters the Derby field with a ton of experience and an unbeaten record to boot. He won the 2023 Newcomer back in October of that year, then the 2023 JBC Nisai Yushun less than a month later. He again competed in December of 2023 and won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun before taking a break and claiming the G3 Saudi Derby on February 24. In his final tune-up before the Kentucky Derby, Forever Young placed first in the 2024 UAE Derby on March 30.
While not the quickest out of the starting gates, Forever Young’s patience should work well in the crowded Derby field tonight. While he doesn’t want to fall too far off the pace, this isn’t the race to back pace-setters, especially in what should be a muddy track.