2008 Sprint Cup Preview - More of the same
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - One of the basic tenets of Sprint Cup racing which makes it so popular with its fan base, is that any of maybe 20 drivers can win on any given Sunday.
Not so with the series title. Only the really strong teams can win the series championship nowadays. Not since 1999 has a driver other than one from Hendrick Motorsports, Roush Fenway Racing or Joe Gibbs Racing laid claim to the title. That year Dale Jarrett won driving for Robert Yates Racing. In fact, since Dale Earnhardt won back-to-back titles in 1993 and 1994 Jarrett's title is the only one that got away from the "big three."
And 2008 looks like more of the same.
Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of drivers who can win a race here and there. Penske Racing with its lineup of Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman can look great on Sundays. Kasey Kahne won a series-high six times in 2006 and after an off year in 2007 should rebound. Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton contended for last year's title and look strong again in 2008.
But none of those will compete for the 2008 Sprint Cup crown. Yes, they will make it into the "Chase," but there is a difference between making the "show" and winning the "show."
The mentality of the "big three" is that winning the championship is all that matters.
Joe Gibbs Racing and Tony Stewart could have "stayed the course" and been competitive. They still had the driver and car to win races. But its all about the championship and JGR decided that the future was with Toyota. With Toyota they would be the No.1 team, not No.2 behind Hendrick Motorsports at Chevrolet. With full factory support from the Japanese manufacturer, JGR expects to be back on top very quickly.
"The difference between the new car and the old one really isn't that much different to me. A race car is a race car," said Stewart.
Though JGR, Stewart, Denny Hamlin and new teammate Kyle Busch may not win the title in 2008 (they will win races), the move will eventually pay off.
Roush Fenway Racing fell flat in 2007 and they freely admit that they didn't do enough work with the COT to compete. But that will change and has changed. By the end of the season, they were back in the mix and won three of the final 10 races.
Now with an off-season to make up for their shortcomings, Roush Fenway Racing will once again be a factor in the championship.
"We think we are caught up on the deficit we had," said owner Jack Roush. "And we think we are ready to start on a level playing field."
Matt Kenseth is the quietest of winners. He doesn't draw attention to himself, yet when it counts he is always there fighting for the championship. Since 2002 he has finished no lower than eighth overall while winning the "Cup" title in 2003. He finished fourth last season despite the team's troubles.
Carl Edwards seems ready to return to the rookie form which saw him finish tied with Greg Biffle just 35 points behind Stewart. Last year Edwards captured the Nationwide Series title (formerly known as Busch Series) and finished ninth in the Sprint Cup Series with three wins and 15 top-10s. But all three wins and 10 of the 15 top-10s came after the All-Star Challenge.
I expect big things from Edwards this season. So does Johnson, who watched him at the California Speedway test last week.
"The one that has impressed me really is Carl Edwards," said Johnson. "Those Roush cars have been good, especially Carl. He's been real fast, not only for one lap, but over the course of the run he's been really impressive."
Still, the title rests at Hendrick Motorsports and they have three drivers capable of keeping it in-house.
Lets start with the two-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. It's not a fluke that he has won back-to-back titles and is trying to become the first since Cale Yarborough (1974-1976) to win three-in-a-row.
"He was a hero of mine when I was young," said Johnson. "He's one of NASCAR's all-time greats. I'm honored just to be mentioned with him."
Since rising to NASCAR's top series in 2002, Johnson has never finished lower than fifth in the championship. He is one of the smartest drivers, has a great crew chief (Chad Knaus), a great pit crew, Hendrick Motorsports equipment (read the best equipment) and his single-minded focus on winning is similar to that of his owner Rick Hendrick.
Johnson and Knaus must have the best communication skills in the series because in every race they improve and improve the No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet until by the end of the race they are almost always one of the fastest cars on the track.
Johnson won 10 times in 2007, the most since teammate Jeff Gordon posted 13 wins in 1998.
All 36 races in 2008 will be run with the COT (Car of Tomorrow). In 16 COT races last year, Johnson won five and collected 11 top-10s. His worst finish was a 21st-place finish at Bristol.
Johnson will have the same crew chief, pit crew and equipment in 2008 so there is every reason to believe he will win again. Unless he suddenly becomes stupid and tries to drive like Robby Gordon (in other words through people instead of around them), he will win another championship.
Although Johnson is the 4-1 co-favorite to win his third straight, he must share the top spot with Jeff Gordon. Gordon had one of the best years in the modern era in 2007, yet fell short in the "Chase" when Johnson won four straight times (Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix).
Jeff Gordon was at the top of the charts in COT races, posting the best finishing average in the series, 5.50. In the 16 races, he won three races, he finished in the top-5 10 times and in the top-10 14 times. Overall, he had six wins in the season and an astounding 30 top-10 finishes. Gordon and crew chief Steve Letarte have a good relationship and of course he will again have the reliability and horsepower of Hendrick Motorsports. If anyone can beat Johnson, it is Gordon.
While Johnson and Gordon will garner their usual amount of attention, all eyes will be watching a third member of the Hendrick Motorsports team - Dale Earnhardt Jr. Voted the most popular driver for the past five years, "Junior" has jumped from the team his father started DEI, to the strongest team in the series.
While Earnhardt Jr. owns 17 career victories, he went winless in 2007 and his old team had problems finishing races. He goes to a new team that not only expects wins (18 in 2007), but championships and gives its drivers the equipment to complete its task. He will also have Tony Eury Jr. as his crew chief so communication should not be a problem. Earnhardt Jr. will not have any excuses in 2008 for not winning races or being a championship contender. He will do both, although not as well as Johnson or Gordon.
"I'm a good driver with a good team - and if we don't make mistakes on Sunday, we should have great finishes and win some races," said Earnhardt Jr.
In a nutshell, its another year of Hendrick Motorsports domination, though probably not quite as big as in 2007 as Roush Fenway Racing closes the gap with both Kenseth and Edwards.