2009 NASCAR Predictions

2009 NASCAR Predictions
By Keith Fredrick

As I sit here, analyzing the college basketball card for the next day, my mind has continually drifted to the upcoming Nascar season, a season that starts just 29 days from now with the Daytona 500. As such, when a handicapper's mind drifts it is usually because he thinks he has a way to make some real money. Ever since the last lap of Homestead 2008 I have been looking ahead to betting two drivers on season futures for 2009, and I have the chance now. With Micah Roberts at Stations Casinos, Jay Kornegay at the Hilton, and Tony Miller/Aaron Kessler at The Golden Nugget putting out Daytona and Nascar season futures, the time has come to place some bets.

Clearly, the favorite is going to be Jimmie Johnson, as he is going for an unprecedented fourth straight title. However, Kyle Busch will get a lot of play after a dominating season that saw him win nine Cup races and a bunch more on the Nationwide and Truck Series. This kid is truly coming into his own, and there is a championship in the family as older brother Kurt won The Chase in 2004. The other major name is Carl Edwards, who would have won last year's title by a scant 16 points in a non Chase format, and clearly was the second best on the track last year. A smart futures bettor should have something on each of these three, to be sure.

Other names with (in this view unwarranted) public support are, of course, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and, in a surprising development from last year that has continued so far into 2009, Clint Bowyer. Both of these guys are really popular with the bettors, Junior for obvious reasons and Bowyer since maybe everyone likes Jack Daniels?

I am not going to have the #88 or the #07 on my ticket, but aside from the three racers mentioned above I will be making two more plays. I will start with Tony Stewart. "Smoke" was just never comfortable last year in his Toyota, and now that he is back in a Chevy and with his own team in place, the last driver to win a championship other than Johnson should do very well. Lots of value here as the futures numbers are quite high on him, with it being at least 15-1. This will be my strongest play.

My other play is on a driver I mentioned in passing above, and that is Kurt Busch. Start with the fact that aside from Stewart and Johnson, Kurt is the only other driver in history to win a Chase, and if that format was in place in 2001 he would have TWO championships by now. Also, after what was a poor opening 26 races in 2008 Busch has four Top Six finishes in Chase races last year, and qualified well in every race in which he was not in the Ton T en at the end. Many observers point to the #2 as one of the best card in the garage at the end of last year, and from what I hear things have continued on the right path. Despite all that, Kurt is 35-1 a least around town, only a couple notches ahead of rookie Joey Logano. This represents a tremendous value, and should not be missed.

Thanks for taking the time to read this preview. As things get closer to Daytona I should be back with more from the track, Until then, keep on racin!

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