2013 Daytona 500 Odds
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- It didn't take long for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season to end before Aliante sports book manager Fred Crespi had his mind churning for 2013 and the Daytona 500. After gathering information on driver and crew chief changes, and speculating on the effect of the new sixth-generation car debuting next season, Crespi had all he needed to offer the first Daytona 500 odds posted in Las Vegas.
The car itself presents the most questions for both bettor and bookmaker, especially in restrictor-plate races, where we have seen a drastically different style of racing in each of the last four seasons. Crespi thinks we'll see racing similar to last season.
"Looking at the Daytona 500 with the changes to the 2013 car, I still see the same type of racing that we have been used to. More pack racing during the bulk of the race with cars 'hooking up' late in the race to make their push to the front."
Restrictor-plate races are always crap shoots, which makes it easier to offer relatively high odds on top drivers, while also closing the odds gap on drivers who typically don't have a chance in the 32 non-plate races.
Even though Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn't won a plate race since 2004, when he took the checkers at both the Daytona 500 and at Talladega, he's still listed as the 10-to-1 favorite by Crespi.
"With so few changes from 2012 to 2013, team- and driver-wise, Daytona was pretty easy to breakdown in terms of the odds offered," said Crespi. "In no other race besides Talladega will you see the favorite be 10-to-1 or higher. And Dale Jr. is 10-to-1 only because he is Dale Jr. and he will attract at lot of action."
Coming into 2012, the public had shied away from Earnhardt Jr. because of his long winless streak, but once he started running well, and then finally won, the public started backing him at the betting windows with the same type of intensity it did in 2004. And because of the large demand on him, his odds dropped lower than they should have.
Crespi also had a dilemma on what to do with Matt Kenseth, the defending two-time Daytona 500 winner, who is now driving for Joe Gibbs.
"The driver that was most difficult to post in term of odds was easily Matt Kenseth," said Crespi. "Moving over from Roush Fenway to Joe Gibbs Racing will surely be an adjustment. When Tony Stewart left JGR and was replaced by Joey Logano, that team had not been the same performance-wise. While I believe Logano is a huge talent, Matt Kenseth will re-elevate that team as early as the Daytona 500. The No. 20 car with Logano would have been at least 30-to-1 at Daytona. With Matt, I debated the 15-to-1 or 18-to-1 range, but I believe his talent for this type of racing deserved the 12-to-1 opening number."
We've seen a Joe Gibbs team in the past make immediate changes for the better for a new driver. In 2005, Jason Leffler couldn't get out of his own way in the No. 11, but the following year Denny Hamlin won at Pocono twice as a rookie in the same car. It would be easy to suggest that it was Hamlin's driving skills that made the difference, but it was pretty obvious the equipment was better.
On the bottom end of the odds, Crespi had to be careful not to offer too high odds on drivers, because anything can happen in plate races. Even though Danica Patrick finished 38th in her Daytona 500 debut last season, she's got good equipment and another year of track time, which is why she's only 125-to-1 to win in February.
"Daytona is its own animal, much like Talladega. Truthfully, almost anyone can win, resulting in much lower available odds on the likes of Bobby Labonte, Casey Mears and Danica Patrick, than you would see the following week at Phoenix or even on the odds we posted for the Las Vegas race in early March. Jimmie Johnson at 15-to-1 should garner some interest though."
Some of the longer shots with a great chance at winning are two-time Daytona winner Jamie McMurray at 50-to-1, who has shown to be one of the better plate racers in the series. Earnhardt Ganassi Racing’s McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya will run Hendrick Motorsports engines next season, but Crespi is still skeptical about seeing a quick turnaround.
"It will be very interesting to gauge the impact of Hendrick Motorsports taking over the engines at EGR and how that may help McMurray and Montoya become more of a factor on a weekly basis. Horsepower and reliability is great, but ultimately success lies within the organization from top to bottom, and I'm just not sold that a new engine program is the tonic here."
Crespi will keep a close eye on a few teams early and based on what he sees, will adjust his odds, not only for the Daytona 500, but also the Sprint Cup championship and other races.
"There are three organizations that I will closely keep my eye on during Preseason Thunder and into the first few races of 2013. They include Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, Richard Childress Racing and Michael Waltrip Racing.
"I believe RCR will be back in 2013 and contending for race wins. All three drivers (Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Paul Menard) have all the talent needed to contend, and Richard Childress will do whatever it takes to get his teams back to competing with Hendrick, Gibbs and Roush."
"At the same time, I really like what I'm seeing from the MWR camp. Last year, all three main drivers were competitive week in and week out at every different NASCAR venue, whether it's Charlotte, Bristol or Martinsville. I could easily see Clint Bowyer or Martin Truex, Jr. contending all year long and being a factor in The Chase as well. Add in Mark Martin and Brian Vickers in that No. 55 car, and you have the making of a team seriously on the rise."
In addition to offering Daytona 500 and Sprint Cup championship odds, The Aliante also posted odds for the Las Vegas race in March, with Johnson the 7-to-1 favorite.
We'll keep you updated all off-season with any developments that may impact the odds for Daytona and elsewhere, in particular, the pre-season testing of the new car. There will be a two-day test session next week at Charlotte. They'll also run a three-day session January 10-12 at Daytona and another two-day session at Charlotte again on Jan 17-18.
ODDS TO IN 2013 DAYTONA 500
DALE EARNHARDT, JR. 10/1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12/1
DENNY HAMLIN 12/1
TONY STEWART 12/1
CLINT BOWYER 12/1
GREG BIFFLE 12/1
KYLE BUSCH 12/1
MATT KENSETH 12/1
KASEY KAHNE 15/1
KEVIN HARVICK 15/1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 15/1
CARL EDWARDS 15/1
JEFF GORDON 15/1
MARTIN TRUEX 20/1
RICKY STENHOUSE, JR. 25/1
RYAN NEWMAN 25/1
JOEY LOGANO 30/1
MARK MARTIN 30/1
PAUL MENARD 40/1
JAMIE McMURRAY 50/1
JEFF BURTON 50/1
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA 50/1
REGAN SMITH 50/1
KURT BUSCH 50/1
TREVOR BAYNE 50/1
ELLIOTT SADLER 60/1
MARCOS AMBROSE 75/1
ARIC ALMIROLA 75/1
DAVID GILLILAND 75/1
DAVID REUTIMANN 75/1
CASEY MEARS 100/1
DANICA PATRICK 125/1
BOBBY LABONTE 125/1
SAM HORNISH, JR. 125/1
A.J. ALLMENDINGER 125/1
JOSH WISE 150/1
DAVID STREMME 150/1
KEN SCHRADER 150/1
STEPHEN LEICHT 150/1
DAVID RAGAN 150/1
DAVE BLANEY 150/1
LANDON CASSILL 150/1
TRAVIS KVAPIL 150/1
J.J. YELEY 175/1
JOE NEMECHEK 200/1
MICHAEL MCDOWELL 200/1
ROBBY GORDON 200/1
BILL ELLIOTT 200/1
MIKE SKINNER 200/1
FIELD (All Others) 50/1