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5-Hour ENERGY 301 Betting News and Notes

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(@blade)
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New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data

Season Race #: 19 of 36 (07-19-15)
Track Size: 1.058-mile
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 2 to 7 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 2 to 7 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 1 degree
Banking/Backstretch: 1 degree
Frontstretch Length: 1,500 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,500 feet
Race Length: 301 laps / 318.46 miles

Top 10 Driver Rating at New Hampshire

Jeff Gordon 107.3
Tony Stewart 106.9
Denny Hamlin 103.2
Jimmie Johnson 102.1
Kyle Larson 99.1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 97.1
Brad Keselowski 95.6
Clint Bowyer 95.0
Kyle Busch 94.7
Kevin Harvick 93.1

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2014 races (20 total) among active drivers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2014 pole winner:
Kyle Busch, Toyota
138.130 mph, 27.574 secs. 07-11-14

2014 race winner:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
108.741 mph, (02:58:03), 07-13-14

Track qualifying record:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
140.598 mph, 27.090 secs. 09-21-14

Track race record:
Jeff Burton, Ford
117.134 mph, (02:42:35), 07-13-97

 
Posted : July 14, 2015 6:43 pm
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New Hampshire Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota)
· Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.500, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.335, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.0, eighth-best
· 245 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.934, seventh-fastest
· 3760 Laps in the Top 15 (69.9), eighth-most
· 498 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)

· One win, seven top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.050, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.375, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 94.7, ninth-best
· 232 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.801, 11th-fastest
· 3975 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5), 10th-most
· 532 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Haas Automation Chevrolet)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 17.500, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.294, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.1, 13th-best
· 187 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· 3529 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0), 13th-most
· 548 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Nationwide Chevrolet)

· Seven top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.350, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.743, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.1, sixth-best
· 251 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.100, fifth-fastest
· 4435 Laps in the Top 15 (74.2), fourth-most
· 625 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 AARP Member Advantages Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 16 top fives, 22 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 10.700, third-best
· Average Running Position of 7.680, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.3, series-best
· 457 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.292, series-fastest
· 5266 Laps in the Top 15 (88.1), series-most
· 676 Quality Passes, series-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Freight Toyota)

· Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.500, second-best
· Average Running Position of 11.406, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 103.2, third-best
· 320 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.064, sixth-fastest
· 3936 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2), fifth-most
· 570 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Jimmy John's/ Budweiser Chevrolet)

· One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.750, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.288, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, 10th-best
· 219 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.890, ninth-fastest
· 4002 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9), ninth-most
· 465 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Three wins, ten top fives, 18 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.950, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.144, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 102.1, fourth-best
· 432 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.193, third-fastest
· 4758 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6), second-most
· 626 Quality Passes, second-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Great Clips Chevrolet)

· One win, three top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 18.050, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.160, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.3, 12th-best
· 340 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.891, eighth-fastest
· 3781 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2), 12th-most
· 534 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 11.000, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.985, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.6, seventh-best
· 229 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.866, 10th-fastest
· 2147 Laps in the Top 15 (65.3), 11th-most
· 336 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 2.500, series-best
· Average Running Position of 10.730, third-best
· Driver Rating of 99.1, fifth-best
· 14 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.217, second-fastest
· 443 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9), sixth-most
· 51 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 16 top 10s; seven poles
· Average finish of 15.150, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.142, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.8, 11th-best
· 169 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.770, 12th-fastest
· 4342 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6), seventh-most
· 504 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.947, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.290, second-best
· Driver Rating of 106.9, second-best
· 412 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.104, fourth-fastest
· 4347 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6), third-most
· 557 Quality Passes, fifth-most

 
Posted : July 14, 2015 6:45 pm
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New Hampshire 301 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It's safe to say the new down force aero package we saw debut at Kentucky last week was a smashing success. It accomplished everything NASCAR wanted by slowing cars down and creating more passing which combined together was a win-win for all the fans.

Kevin Harvick, who had dominated the down force tracks prior to Kentucky, and finished eighth Saturday -- his worst on those types -- might not agree with the new package being a success, but consider that there were 2,665 green flag passes on Saturday night compared to just 1,147 on the same track last season.

Kyle Busch ended up taking control of the race to win for the second time this season and has eight races to make up gap of 87 points between he and the 30th-place car to become eligible for the Chase. All four of the Joe Gibbs drivers had the new package figured out as they all finished in the top-five.

Unfortunately, we won’t see the new aero package in the 10-race Chase. They’ll give it to us again for Darlington, but that’s it, which means Harvick can go back to running his dominating set-up again on the five 1.5-mile tracks during the Chase. NASCAR will raise the spoilers at Indianapolis and Michigan to create more drag, but the Chase will be decided with the aero package that the season started with which means more Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex, Jr. and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. domination.

This Sunday’s New Hampshire 301 will also be using the regular package and based on what we saw at Phoenix and Richmond, we shouldn’t expect to see too many drivers leading laps. I like to group Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire together simply because the crew chiefs do it for their set-ups. Many bring the same chassis’ to each if successful and because all three tracks are flat and range from 1-mile to ¾-mile in distance, we can apply them to each other to make odds and also as a basis for wagering strategies.

Between Phoenix and Richmond it was the Harvick and Kurt Busch show. Only four drivers led a lap at Phoenix with Harvick controlling the race leading 224 laps and winning his fourth straight race there. Busch was one of five drivers to lead a lap at Richmond, but he led 291 of the 400 to win. With the set-up being the same, those are the two drivers to beat this week.

It’s hard to throw away what we saw last week with the Gibbs drivers, and even the Penske duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano running, but that’s got nothing to do with this week and we’ll have to save Kentucky data for Darlington.

Harvick finished third at New Hampshire last fall and won in 2006, which was also the year he swept Phoenix and won at Richmond as well. In 2004, Busch swept New Hampshire and has totaled three wins over 28 career starts. However, he hasn’t had a top-five there since 2010.

Keselowski and Logano were the only drivers other than Harvick and Jamie McMurray to lead laps at both Phoenix and Richmond this season and last season Keselowski won this race at New Hampshire and Logano won it in the fall. Logano won his first career Cup race at New Hampshire in a rain shortened event in 2009. Those two figure to give Harvick and Busch their stiffest competition on Sunday.

Other drivers that have fared well at New Hampshire over their careers include Johnson and Jeff Gordon who have each won three times. Gordon will be making his 41st career Loudon start and has raced in every Cup race the track has ever had in the Cup series. His last win there came during his magical 1998 season when he won 13 times.

Denny Hamlin has a 10.5 average finish over his 18 career starts that include two wins, the last coming in 2012. This is his type of race track. Just think of a bigger Martinsville, a place that he won at for his only win of the season. The one negative is that he didn’t run well at Phoenix or Richmond this season.

A wild card to watch out for is Kyle Larson who you should be able to get 20-to-1 odds with. In his first two New Hampshire Cup starts last season he finished third and second. He also ran well at Phoenix and Richmond this season. His teammate, McMurray, finished second at Phoenix and fourth at Richmond and could be worth a shot at 25-to-1 odds.

I don’t want to take Harvick and Busch this week even though all the data says they’re going to the drivers to beat, so I’ll roll with Logano. I'm also going to see what I can find on Larson and McMurray in any capacity with props and match-ups and maybe even a stab at odds to win if the price is high enough.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1): #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
2): #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
3): #41 Kurt Busch (7/1)
4): #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
5): #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)

 
Posted : July 16, 2015 3:10 am
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Drivers to Watch - New Hampshire
By Sportsbook.ag

5-Hour Energy 301
Sunday, July 19th – 1:30 p.m. EDT
New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Loudon, NH
Sportsbook.ag Odds to Win Race

After a dominant week for the Joe Gibbs racing team in Kentucky, the Sprint Cup Series heads to New Hampshire for the 5-Hour Energy 301; a race first held in 1993 at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway. There has been a ton of variance with the victors in this event with a new winner each year since 2010 while no one driver has owned the course. Jimmie Johnson (2003, 2010), Kurt Busch (2004, 2008) and Tony Stewart (2000, 2005) are all active drivers who have won more than once when hitting the 1.058-mile oval course made up of asphalt and granite.

The venue is often dubbed “The Magic Mile” and it allowed Brad Keselowski to come away with the win last year as he did so in 2:58:03 at an average speed of 108.741 MPH. His win was in an extended race due to a green-white-checker finish and is one of 33 in his career. Let’s take a look through the entrants this week and see who stands out as a competitor at this course.

Drivers to Bet

Jimmie Johnson (6/1) - This track is yet another that Johnson has been able to tame in his career, as one of the best drivers in history has three wins with 18 top-10s in his time at the venue with two of those victories coming in this particular event. He’s spent 4,758 laps in the top-10 (79.6%) which ranks second-best amongst the drivers and he is also second in quality passes (626). The 39-year-old is the current Sprint Cup Series leader with yet another spectacular season in which he owns four wins and has done worse than ninth just once over his last six times out. Each week Johnson could take the checkered flag, so feel confident when you go with him.

Denny Hamlin (12/1) - Hamlin has torn up this track in his 18 career visits, getting into the top-10 11 times, the top-five seven times and also has two wins. Those results have aided him in having a tremendous driver rating of 103.2 (third-best) and his average finish of 10.5 is second-best amongst his peers. He flies around this course at an average green flag speed of 125.064 MPH (sixth-fastest) and has been able to compile 570 quality passes (fourth-most). Hamlin has been all over the place in 2015 as he has done worse than 25th four times, but won at both Martinsville and the All-Star Race. He has done great in the past two weeks leading up to New Hampshire, getting a third at both Daytona and Kentucky and has risen into the top-10 of the Sprint Cup standings. Grabbing Hamlin would be going with a hot hand who has had tons of success at this track in the past.

Kyle Larson (20/1) - Larson hasn’t exactly been blowing anyone away this year with his performances, but he looks like he is on the right track with his car running well as evidenced by a fourth-place pole at Sonoma while winning the pole last week in Kentucky. Larson is one of the youngest racers in the circuit and much of his inconsistencies can be attributed to that fact, but he has had no issues in his first two visits to this track. In his limited experience here he has been in the top-five each time and already has 51 quality passes in that time. The youngster should be able to put things together and gain some consistency where he has done a phenomenal job in the past.

Carl Edwards (20/1) - Edwards does not exactly have the upside this week to get the win, but he should give himself the chance as he has been consistent here in the past. Over his 21 career visits, he owns a mere five top-10s, but still has tallied an impressive average finish of 14th. He has one of his 24 career wins this year as he took down Charlotte in late May and currently ranks 10th in the Sprint Cup Series. Edwards will hope to piggy-back off of an impressive showing last week where he ended in fourth, just his second top-10 of the year, and led for a single lap after beginning in 20th. If he can ride the momentum from Kentucky he will place higher than his usual at this track.

Paul Menard (100/1) - Menard is in the midst of his best season since coming to the Sprint Cup Series in 2003 as he sits in 14th with four top-eight finishes. He has come close to getting a second career victory with his first coming at the 2011 Brickyard 400, and although he has been unable to get into the top-10 at this track over his 16 career starts, his improved performances this year should allow him to jump up near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Check out more MLB Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag

 
Posted : July 16, 2015 3:24 am
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Driver Handicaps: New Hampshire
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Sunday’s 5-hour ENERGY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Who's HOT In Loudon

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Three straight top-10 finishes there bode well for "Junior" to bounce back after last week’s frustrating run in Kentucky.

Brad Keselowski: Dating back to 2011, Keselowski has finished outside the top 10 just once in Loudon, a stretch that includes a win last season.

Kurt Busch: Overall, his numbers aren’t great at New Hampshire. But the way Busch has been running this year, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver should be an impact player on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick: Copy and paste the description for Busch, Harvick’s SHR teammate. Harvick's recent outings in New England are nothing to write home about, in general, but Harvick did post a third-place finish in 2014.

Kyle Busch: Three consecutive second-place finishes and an eighth last year are what Busch has put on the board in Loudon over his last four starts. He’s a man on a mission to make the Chase and has an excellent shot at adding to the goal of making the "playoffs" on Sunday.

Who's NOT

Paul Menard: A 20.2 average finish for the Richard Childress Racing driver over his last 10 Loudon starts makes the track one of his biggest challenges.

David Ragan: Maybe his first career Loudon start for Michael Waltrip Racing will turn around Ragan’s misfortunes that have seen him finish in the top 10 only once over the last 10 races.

Danica Patrick: Four starts and an average finish of 26.3, with a best outing of 19th, doesn’t bode well for Patrick’s chances.

Sam Hornish Jr.: Like Patrick, Hornish also only has four Sprint Cup Series starts at New Hampshire over the last 10 races held at the track. His average finish is 19.0.

Jamie McMurray: Despite two top-five runs in his last three starts, New Hampshire has not been one of McMurray’s best tracks with an average finish of 15.9 dating back to 2010.

Who to Keep an Eye On at New Hampshire

Joey Logano: Forget the fact there are two 40th-place finishes on Logano’s record in the last three races at Loudon. He won last fall and is running well enough this year to challenge for another victory Sunday.

Kyle Larson: Third in his first start at the track and second in the next outing. There’s only one spot left to go in his climb to the top.

Clint Bowyer: Has a 10.8 average finish in the last 10 races at Loudon, which is third-best among active drivers. The clock is ticking on ending a two year winless streak as Bowyer tries to get back to the Chase.

Denny Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver usually excels on flat tracks and is a former New Hampshire winner, in 2012.

Jimmie Johnson: Had tire problems in this race a year ago that appeared to be the result of the team experimenting since Johnson had already locked down a Chase spot. A former winner at the track, Johnson considers Loudon one of his favorite ovals.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Brad Keselowski
Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick

 
Posted : July 17, 2015 3:11 pm
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