AAA 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver Highlights - Dover
By Micah Roberts

1 - Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.1

2011 Rundown

# Two wins, five top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.3
# Led 15 races for 377 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Two wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.5 in 25 races
# Average Running Position of 21.7, 26th-best
# Driver Rating of 71.4, 24th-best
# 508 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most

2 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Rheem Chasing The Cure Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.4

2011 Rundown

# Four wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s
# Average finish of 11.3
# Led 13 races for 333 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Two top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 17.0 in 21 races
# Average Running Position of 18.0, 14th-best
# Driver Rating of 78.3, 15th-best
# 513 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# 2,607 Laps in the Top 15 (50.1%), 13th-most
# 219 Quality Passes, 13th-most

3 - Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 87.3

2011 Rundown

# Three wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.7
# Led 14 races for 273 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Average finish of 17.7 in three races
# Average Running Position of 18.3, 15th-best
# Driver Rating of 70.3, 25th-best

4 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.3

2011 Rundown

# One win, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 10.6
# Led 18 races for 597 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 7.6 in 14 races
# Average Running Position of 9.6, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 104.9, fourth-best
# 404 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# 513 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.769 mph, fourth-fastest
# 3,897 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fifth-most
# Series-high 384 Quality Passes

5 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.8

2011 Rundown

# Three wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.8
# Led 18 races for 799 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Four wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 12.2 in 37 races
# Average Running Position of 13.7, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 89.4, 11th-best
# 481 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.568 mph, seventh-fastest
# 3,686 Laps in the Top 15 (70.8%), eighth-most
# 319 Quality Passes, sixth-most

6 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.4

2011 Rundown

# Four wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.3
# Led 20 races for 1,188 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 13.8 in 13 races
# Average Running Position of 12.6, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 102.0, fifth-best
# 226 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.747 mph, fifth-fastest
# 3,808 Laps in the Top 15 (73.2%), seventh-most
# 326 Quality Passes, fifth-most

7 - Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.6

2011 Rundown

# Two wins, seven top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.0
# Led 15 races for 625 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Two wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 12.4 in 25 races
# Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
# Driver Rating of 110.0, second-best
# 348 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 530 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.944 mph, second-fastest
# Series-high 4,402 Laps in the Top 15 (84.6%)
# 379 Quality Passes, second-most

8 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 84.4

2011 Rundown

# Four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.0
# Led 8 races for 50 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 17.8 in 23 races
# Average Running Position of 20.5, 23rd-best
# Driver Rating of 76.1, 17th-best
# 131 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# 486 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most

9 - Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.9

2011 Rundown

# One win, seven top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 13.0
# Led 16 races for 616 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Five top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 18.7 in 22 races
# Average Running Position of 11.8, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 95.0, seventh-best
# 180 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 503 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.502 mph, eighth-fastest
# 3,533 Laps in the Top 15 (67.9%), ninth-most
# 304 Quality Passes, eighth-most

10 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.9

2011 Rundown

# One win, 11 top fives, 18 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.9
# Led 16 races for 695 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Six wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 9.6 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 8.0, second-best
# Series-best Driver Rating of 117.4
# Series-high 669 Fastest Laps Run
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 143.132 mph
# 4,371 Laps in the Top 15 (84.0%), second-most
# 261 Quality Passes, ninth-most

11 - Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army ROTC Chevrolet)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.1

2011 Rundown

# One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 13.3
# Led 14 races for 347 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Three wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 10.9 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.5, eighth-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 142.360 mph, 10th-fastest
# 4,008 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0%), fourth-most

12 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)

# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.6

2011 Rundown

# One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 17.1
# Led 14 races for 392 laps

Dover International Speedway Outlook:

# Two top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 20.9 in 11 races
# Average Running Position of 18.7, 17th-best
# Driver Rating of 79.3, 13th-best

Glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase

A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Dover, Del. (in order of points):

DRIVER: Tony Stewart

CHASE POINTS: First, 2,094 points

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1

CAR: No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart-Haas Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Won his second consecutive race by passing Clint Bowyer as Bowyer ran out of gas on the final lap.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 25

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2000, twice)

DRIVER: Kevin Harvick

CHASE POINTS: Second, -7 points

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAR: No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet

TEAM: Richard Childress Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Finished 12th at New Hampshire in part because his Chevrolet didn't get good fuel mileage.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 21

BEST DOVER FINISH: 3rd (2006)

DRIVER: Brad Keselowski

CHASE POINTS: Third, -11 points

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 4

CAR: No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Finished second at New Hampshire for his second top-five of the Chase.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 3

BEST DOVER FINISH: 13th (2011)

DRIVER: Carl Edwards

CHASE POINTS: Fourth, -14 points

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAR: No. 99 Aflac Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Had an uneventful eighth-place finish at New Hampshire.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 14

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2007)

DRIVER: Jeff Gordon

CHASE POINTS: Fifth, -23 points

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 6

CAR: No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Led three times for a race-high 78 laps, but had to save gas at the end and finished fourth.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 37

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (1995, 1996 twice, 2001)

DRIVER: Kyle Busch

CHASE POINTS: Sixth, -26 points

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3

CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Finished 11th after losing time on his final pit stop because he drove through his stall.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 13

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2008, 2010)

DRIVER: Matt Kenseth

CHASE POINTS: Seventh, -26

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3

CAR: No. 17 Crown Royal Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Spun after contact with teammate Edwards, but rallied to finish sixth.

CAREER NEW HAMPSHIRE STARTS: 25

BEST NEW HAMPSHIRE FINISH: 1st (2006, 2011)

DRIVER: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

CHASE POINTS: Eighth, -26 points

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 3

CAR: No. 88 AMP Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was headed to a top-10 finish until two flat tires dropped him to 17th-place.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 23

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2001)

DRIVER: Kurt Busch

CHASE POINTS: Ninth, -28 points

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 5

CAR: No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Day got off to a bad start when NASCAR inspectors did not release his car until minutes before the race. Finished 22nd.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 22

BEST DOVER FINISH: 4th (2006, 2010)

DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson

CHASE POINTS: 10th, -29 points

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 2

CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Never hit his stride at New Hampshire and finished 18th.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 19

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2003-twice, 2010)

DRIVER: Ryan Newman

CHASE POINTS: 11th, -34

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 5

CAR: No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart-Haas Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Won the pole but finished 25th because of a slow late pit stop and a flat tire.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 19

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (2003-twice, 2004)

DRIVER: Denny Hamlin

CHASE POINTS: 12th, -66 points

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was poised to finish in top-five until he ran out of gas with three laps to go. Finished 29th.

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 11

BEST DOVER FINISH: Fourth (2007, 2010)

Driver Handicaps: Dover
By: Jeff Wackerlin

To help you make your fantasy racing picks for the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.

Who's HOT at Dover
• Matt Kenseth won in May for his sixth top five in the last seven races.
• Jimmie Johnson has won three of the last five races.
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers in average finish (5.2) in the nine races with the COT.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in the last three races, including a win in the 2010 spring race.
• Four-time winner Mark Martin, who finished second in May, leads all drivers with 23 top fives.
• Four-time winner Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with 2,231 laps led.
• Greg Biffle is second in average finish (6.6) in the past 10 races.

Keep an Eye on at Dover
• Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman each have finished in the top 10 in three of their five starts at Dover with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Jeff Burton has a 9.2 average finish in the nine races with the COT at Dover.
• Kevin Harvick is coming off his eighth top 10 at Dover.
• Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have respective average finishes of 3.5 and 10.0 in the two races so far in the Chase.
• Martin Truex, who won the 2008 spring race, is coming off his first top 10 with Michael Waltrip Racing at Dover.
• Kurt Busch has finished in the top five in three of his last five starts at Dover.
• Denny Hamlin has posted an average finish of 9.7 in his last three starts at Dover.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Carl Edwards
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Craig Moore: Kyle Busch
Steve Blevins: Greg Biffle
John Singler: Carl Edwards
Ricky Hamber: Jimmie Johnson

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Dover unless noted)

1. Tony Stewart: 14.0 average finish in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Has finished 21st or worse in last two starts; 19.0 average finish in the nine races with the COT; Swept the two races in 2000 driving for Joe Gibbs Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 564) that he most recently finished ninth with at Michigan International Speedway in August.

2. Kevin Harvick: Coming off eighth top 10 in 21 starts; 16.1 average finish and one lap led in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 353) that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May and finished seventh with at Atlanta Motor Speedway in September.

3. Brad Keselowski: 17.7 average finish in three starts; Coming off best finish in 13th; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 748) that he finished ninth with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in July.

4. Carl Edwards: Leads all drivers with a 7.6 average finish; Has finished eighth or better in nine of the last 10 races; Winner of the 2007 fall race; First in average finish (5.2) and second in laps led (393) in the nine races with the COT; Fourth among all drivers with a 104.9 driver rating in the last 13 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 788) that he finished fourth at Chicagoland Speedway.

5. Jeff Gordon: Four-time winner; Last won in 2001 after leading 381 laps from the second-starting position; Last of 21 top-10s came in the 2009 fall race; Finished 17th in the spring; Seventh-best average finish (11.4) in the nine races with the COT.

6. Kyle Busch: Two-time winner; Has finished sixth or better in last three starts; Combined to post an average finish of 3.5 and 177 laps led in both races in 2010; Fourth in laps led (335) and ninth in average finish (14.6) in the nine races with the COT; Fifth among all drivers with a 102.0 driver rating in the last 13 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 308) that he won at Kentucky Speedway with in July.

7. Matt Kenseth: Coming off second win in 25 starts; Has finished in the top five in seven of the last nine races; Third in laps led (384) and Fourth in average finish (8.3) in the nine races with the COT; Second among all drivers with a 110.0 driver rating in the last 13 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 763) that he raced at Dover in May.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 22.3 average finish in seven starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Scored seven top 10s and one win in previous 16 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Led first lap in the nine races with the COT in May; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 657) that he last finished 16th with at Bristol Motor Speedway in August.

9. Kurt Busch: Has finished in the top five in three of the last five races; Finished 14th in the spring; 19.1 average finish in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 758) that he led 38 laps and finished third with at Pocono Raceway at Pocono Raceway in August.

10. Jimmie Johnson: Defending event winner; Win was sixth in 19 starts; First in laps led (1,276) and second in average finish (7.7) in the nine races with the COT; Leads all drivers with a 117.4 driver rating in the last 13 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 669) that he last finished second with at Michigan International Speedway in August.

11. Ryan Newman: 12.0 average finish in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Three-time winner with Penske Racing, including a sweep in 2003; Has led 842 laps in 19 starts; Eighth-best average finish (13.0) in the nine races with the COT.

12. Denny Hamlin: 16th-place finish in May snapped streak of two consecutive top 10s; 20.9 average finish in 11 starts; Has yet to lead a lap in his last seven starts.

13. Clint Bowyer: Coming off fourth top 10 in 11 starts; 10th-best average finish (15.3) in the nine races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 350) that he most recently finished eighth with at Michigan International Speedway in June.

14. Greg Biffle: Has finished 19th in last two starts; Finished eighth or better in nine of his previous 11 starts; Third in average finish (8.0) and fifth in laps led (240) in the nine races with the COT; Third among all drivers with a 106.9 driver rating in the last 13 races.

15. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 10th in this event last year for second top 10 in nine starts; 25.1 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 752) that he most recently finished 10th with at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

16. Mark Martin: Four-time winner in 50 starts; His 23 top-five finishes and 1,726 laps led are a personal best at any track; 8.2 average finish in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Finished second in May; Fifth-best average finish (8.8) in the nine races with the COT.

17. David Ragan: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 10 starts; 24.0 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 744) that he finished 20th with at Bristol Motor Speedway.

18. Martin Truex Jr: Won the 2007 spring race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. after leading 215 laps; Coming off first top 10 (eighth) in three starts with Michael Waltrip Racing.

19. Juan Pablo Montoya: Fourth-place finish in this event in 2009 is best in nine starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1003) that he finished 32nd with at Dover in May.

20. Kasey Kahne: Started fourth and finished 36th (engine) in first track start with Team Red Bull; Last of three top 10s in 14 starts came in both races in 2009.

Dover AAA 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts

After two races into NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship, we have a new leader and new Las Vegas odds-on favorite. After not winning for the first 26 races of the season, Tony Stewart’s championship alarm clock has awoken the former champ and he’s won the first two events of the Chase. Stewart now has a 7-point lead over Kevin Harvick heading into this week’s event at Dover, Delaware.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened Stewart at 20-to-1 odds before the Chase started, with not many takers. But following his Chicago win, he was dropped to 9-to-2. The combination of a poor finish by five-time, reigning champ Jimmie Johnson not doing well at New Hampshire and Stewart winning has dropped him all the way to 5-to-2.

Jimmie J in the four-eight, or ‘five-time’ as he’s been called, is now 29-points behind the leader, but is still respected with odds of 6-to-1. That’s only 29 positions to make up with eight races to go, but based on this season where he’s only had one win, it could turn out to be an eternity. Could we be witnessing the fall of a dynasty in the same way we saw Roger Federer and Tiger Woods take a back seat in their sports?

It’s looking closer to being the end than it is that his team will miraculously become better than the first 28 races of the season.

Close behind Stewart is Kevin Harvick (-7 points, 7/2), Brad Keselowski (-11, 7/1) and Carl Edwards (-14, 4/1). My choice to win the Chase, Jeff Gordon, is currently 23 points behind with odds of 6-to-1, but has a lot more upside down the stretch than Johnson just because he’s been able to show he can dominate a race.

Denny Hamlin wasn’t thought of as a driver who could win the Chase, but was 15-to-1 when it started. After two awful performances, he’s 66-points behind the leader and can be had for 200-to-1 if having any reason to believe things will get better.

If there ever was a track on the schedule that could get Johnson going in the right direction again, it would be Dover. Five-time is a six-time winner on the track, including taking this race last season. He finished ninth in the first Dover race held in May, but led 207 of the 400 laps, most of which came in the early portion of the race.

“New Hampshire obviously wasn’t the finish we were looking for especially with how good we were throughout the weekend, " Johnson said. "I’m really looking forward to this weekend though. Dover has always been a good place for the 48 team and I really enjoy racing there. I’m not really sure why, but it has always just kind of suited my driving style.”

Matt Kenseth eventually won the first Dover race by opting to go with two tires in the final pit stop while perhaps the best car at the time, driven by Carl Edwards, took four tires.

That decision and same tire compound could prove to be a blessing for Edwards this time around as Kenseth paved the way for success. Edwards has a great history at Dover already with a 2007 win and not finishing worse than 11th in his last 10 starts there. The lesson learned the hard way could prove to be a good one for the No. 99 team this week.

Kenseth’s win was the second of his career at Dover. Since his first win in 2006, Kenseth has finished in the top-five in eight of 11 starts. He had a gritty sixth-place finish last week at New Hampshire in a car that he absolutely hated through practice and the race, which could lead to more success in races to come making him a factor in the Chase. He’s currently 26-points behind Stewart and has several of his best tracks coming up, beginning with Dover.

“This weekend, we’re bringing the same chassis we ran and won with at Dover back in May," said Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig. "Dover is Matt’s favorite track and that gives us a lot of motivation to have another solid run there this weekend. We were able to leave New Hampshire with a sixth-place finish at a track that has been a challenge for us in the past, so I’m looking forward to this weekend in order to help us make up some position in the point standings.”

Although Dover is kind of in it’s own world with not a lot of comparisons because of the steep banking and one-mile concrete layout, Bristol is as close as it comes, especially since Bristol‘s repaving job in 2007 which gave it multiple grooves.

If we account for what happened in late August at Bristol, we have to look at Brad Keselowski who finished strong with a win in that race. Gordon led the most laps with Martin Truex Jr., Johnson and Kenseth all running well enough to win.

Gordon saw a rebound at Bristol the second time around and his crew chief, Alan Gustufson, thinks they can rebound at Dover this week the same way.

“I certainly hope so,” said the No. 24 crew chief. “We learned a lot from our first trip to our second at Bristol this year, and I’m hoping the success on that concrete track translates over to Dover this weekend.”

So how about Stewart’s chances of winning three straight races?

It looked as though Dover would be a track that he would dominate on over his career as he swept the 2000 season, but he hasn’t won there since, a span of 21 races. His runner-up finish in the spring of 2009 was his only top-five on the track since 2004. It would seem a long-shot for him to complete the tri-fecta this week, but he’s already beaten the odds by winning the first two, so you never know.

Top 5 Finish prediction:

1) #99 Carl Edwards (8/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)

NASCAR Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle

The Monster Mile looms large as the third race in NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup takes the green flag for the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway Sunday.

So far, the theme of the 2011 Chase has been “The world according to Tony Stewart”. Stewart has won the first two races and looks like the driver to beat. However, the driver known as “Mr. Five Time” can’t be counted out.

Jimmie Johnson, once considered the driver to take it all has struggled. He’s currently 10th in points - his lowest Chase position ever. His previous low was ninth, three different times.

An 18th-place finish at New Hampshire put him 29 points behind Stewart. But Johnson needs only to look at his own past history to realize that this lead isn’t insurmountable. In 2006, he was 136 points behind then leader Jeff Burton after two Chase races and came back to win his first of five consecutive championships. He knows he needs to get back in the game and this weekend could just be his last, but best, chance to do so.

Johnson is this week’s favorite and for good reason. He’s has won three of the last five Dover races and six overall - the most among all active drivers.

"New Hampshire obviously wasn't the finish we were looking for especially with how good we were throughout the weekend,” Johnson told reporters. “I'm really looking forward to this weekend though. Dover has always been a good place for the No. 48 team and I really enjoy racing there. I'm not really sure why, but it has always just kind of suited my driving style."

Matt Kenseth won here in May and has two wins overall at Dover. He’s eighth in the standings and only 26 points behind the leader. He also has the second-highest driver rating and could easily put himself in contention with a victory Sunday.

However, Kenseth’s mind may not be right heading into the weekend. His wife, Katie, was in a crash during a practice run for a bandolero charity race at Charlotte Motor Speedway Monday. She was taken to hospital on a stretcher and suffered a broken shoulder blade, but is expected to recover.

"I had a really sick feeling in my gut she was hurt really bad," Kenseth told the media following the accident.

The only other driver to score a win in the last five races, in addition to Johnson and Kenseth, is Kyle Busch. Busch has been hot and cold all season. Like Johnson, Busch knows he needs a win to get his Chase back on track. He finished fourth here in May and won the May race in 2010. Add to that the fourth-highest driver rating among the top 10 and the field could see a very hot Busch run away with it all Sunday.

Head-to-Head

Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have both visited Victory Lane once at Dover and this pair makes up our primetime matchup this week. Edwards has been running quietly, finishing in the Top 10 each week. Earnhardt had a third place finish at Chicago and was able to overcome adversity late last week at New Hampshire to salvage a 17th place. Despite the finish outside the Top 15 last week, Earnhardt seems to have found a spark while Edwards once a favorite, has lost direction. The edge goes to Earnhardt this week.

Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart: Stewart has been the class of the field for the first two races and has two wins at Dover. While he could go to Victory Lane again this Sunday, Stewart’s history is against him. Should Stewart complete a triple play, it will be the first time he has ever won three-consecutive races in his career. It’ll also be the first time a driver has won three consecutive races in the Chase since Jimmie Johnson won four straight in 2007. Stewart’s last two finishes at Dover have been outside the Top 20. Newman has three wins at Dover, but the last coming in 2004. Don’t look for Stewart to win the race but he should prevail in this matchup.

The Outsider

The only non-Chase driver to win at Dover in the last eight races is Greg Biffle. Biffle won here in 2008 and could do so again if he and his Roush-Fenway Team can find their groove.

Bottom Line

Thirteen drivers have won from the pole. The last to do so was Jimmie Johnson, in last season’s September race. The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 37th, by Kyle Petty in 1995.

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson (+600)
Matt Kenseth (+1,000)
Kyle Busch (+600)

NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings

This Week's Race: AAA 400 from Dover International Speedway

Practice Notes - Dover
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1 Jeff Gordon 8/1 4th 2nd 34th 17th
Notes: Three-time winner; strong practices and dominating Bristol race make him the favorite.

2 Matt Kenseth 10/1 2nd 20th 18th 1st
Notes: Two-time winner; using the same chassis this week that he won with in May Dover race.

3 Jimmie Johnson 6/1 7th 12th 6th 9th
Notes: Six-time winner, the last coming in 2010; using chassis that finished second at Michigan.

4 Kyle Busch 6/1 5th 11th 5th 4th
Notes: Two-time winner with six other finishes of sixth or better; using winning Kentucky chassis.

5 Carl Edwards 7/1 3rd 16th 4th 7th
Notes: 2007 winner and track best 7.6 average finish; using fourth-place Chicagoland chassis.

6 Kevin Harvick 15/1 16th 18th 22nd 10th
Notes: Career best of third in 2006. Has led 134 laps in 21 starts; using winning Charlotte chassis.

7 Mark Martin 30/1 15th 1st 17th 2nd
Notes: Four-time winner, the last coming in 2004; 11.4 average finsh in last 20 starts.

8 Brad Keselowski 15/1 6th 22nd 15th 13th
Notes: Rated high on the basis of his Bristol win where notes from that race should translate well.

9 Kurt Busch 12/1 12th 14th 2nd 14th
Notes: Five top-five finishes, including three in his last five starts; using third-place Pocono car.

10 Martin Truex, Jr. 30/1 8th 33rd 1st 8th
Notes: Captured his only career win at Dover in 2007; had a strong runner-up finish at Bristol.

Note: Results from the August 27, 2011 race at Bristol can also be used as a barometer for Sunday's race. Although, Bristol is half the size of Dover, the two concrete tracks each have multiple grooves and similar banking.