AAA 400 Betting News and Notes

Dover Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.091, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.447, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 95.4, sixth-best
· 440 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.206, seventh-fastest
· 5936 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4), eighth-most
· 548 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 HScott Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.850, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.296, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.5, seventh-best
· 237 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.219, sixth-fastest
· 5876 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4), fifth-most
· 516 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, ten top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.591, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.861, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 105.8, third-best
· 482 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.565, third-fastest
· 6870 Laps in the Top 15 (78.0), fourth-most
· 557 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 17.682, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.063, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.1, 10th-best
· 326 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.113, eighth-fastest
· 5466 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1), 11th-most
· 498 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.500, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.117, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.6, fourth-best
· 511 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.243, fifth-fastest
· 6085 Laps in the Top 15 (69.1), sixth-most
· 572 Quality Passes, series-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, five top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.455, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.154, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.2, eighth-best
· 406 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.904, 11th-fastest
· 5667 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3), ninth-most
· 468 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Ten wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 7.455, second-best
· Average Running Position of 7.710, series-best
· Driver Rating of 120.1, series-best
· 1207 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.881, series-fastest
· 7507 Laps in the Top 15 (85.2), second-most
· 464 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, 15 top fives, 22 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.364, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 8.664, second-best
· Driver Rating of 107.7, second-best
· 500 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.598, second-fastest
· 7328 Laps in the Top 15 (83.2), third-most
· 569 Quality Passes, second-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, four top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.333, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.066, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.8, 11th-best
· 157 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.017, 10th-fastest
· 2940 Laps in the Top 15 (61.2), 12th-most
· 283 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 7.250, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.735, third-best
· Driver Rating of 98.1, fifth-best
· 35 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.276, fourth-fastest
· 1408 Laps in the Top 15 (87.7), series-most
· 114 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Three top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 13.357, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.177, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.3, 13th-best
· 75 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.861, 13th-fastest
· 3802 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8.), seventh-most
· 372 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 15.773, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.331, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.8, 12th-best
· 141 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 143.870, 12th-fastest
· 5332 Laps in the Top 15 (60.5), 13th-most
· 411 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, one top five, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.100, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.180, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.2, ninth-best
· 314 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.047, ninth-fastest
· 5095 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6), 10th-most
· 458 Quality Passes, ninth-most

AAA 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We've blazed through almost every type of track there is over the first 11 races of the Sprint Cup season, with the exception of a road course and a one-mile high banked concrete oval, so let's check off that concrete track this week, a race at Dover that comes a few weeks earlier than it did last season.

Sunday's AAA 400 will be the first race of the season in the northeast after the series has run multiple times in the west, mid-west and south.

The main story coming into the race is no one being hotter in the series than Kyle Busch. The Las Vegas native just won his series leading third race of the season Saturday, his first ever at Kansas Speedway, which was also his series leading ninth top-five finish in 11 races.

After watching the first 11 races last season sitting in his rocking chair at home due to breaking a leg in the season opening Xfinity Series race at Daytona, he grew up real fast as a driver. He understood that the series was moving along just fine without him. Coupled with experiencing the birth of his first child at the same time, he's learned to not be so 'Rowdy" anymore and that adjusted temperament helped him win the first Sprint Cup title of his career and he's been on cruise control ever since.

Of course, it doesn't hurt that he also drives for Joe Gibbs Racing which is producing great cars for not only for Busch, but also Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth while providing equipment for Martin Truex Jr. Edwards' five top-fives is tied with Kevin Harvick for second most in the series and his two wins are tied with Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski for second most. Kenseth, who has had awful luck this season despite great cars, finally got his first top-five of the season at Kansas.

While the JGR drivers all figure to perform well on Dover's 'Monster Mile', the undisputed King of Dover and favorite to win is Johnson.

Last May, Johnson won for a track-record 10th time at Dover which made him the fifth driver in Cup history to win 10 times at a single track joining Richard Petty, David Pearson, Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt. In 28 starts, he has 15 top-five finishes, a ninth-place average finish and a series-best 2,999 laps led. At all phases of his career, Dover has been a consistent winner for him. He's currently on a run of winning three of the past five there.

Although Johnson is best at Dover, there was one driver that was better than him last season. Harvick finished second behind Johnson last May and then won in the fall during the Chase where he led 355 of the 400 laps. It was his first win in 30 starts on the track.

Busch has two Dover wins, but none since 2010. In 22 starts, he's got 14 top-10s and has led 1,037 laps. He finished second to Harvick last fall. The case to be made for him this week to win lies mostly with momentum, but also the new low downforce package which has never been used at Dover. The Gibbs drivers have it figured out and Kyle has shown he is a big momentum guy no matter the type of track. He won four of five during a stretch in July and won two straight to start April.

This is technically Mayetta, NJ native Martin Truex Jr's home track, and it was the site of his first career win in 2007. He's only won two races since, but he's probably never had a car set-up so perfectly week-to-week like this season. Last week he led 172 of the 267 laps at Kansas, but settled for 14th. He's been 11th or better in his past four Dover starts.

Edwards' only Dover win came in 2007, a time when he went on a run of finishing in the top-five in eight of 13 starts. He hasn't cracked the top-five since then with finishes of 11th or worse in his last six. The reason you might want to support Edwards this week is because of leading 276 of 500 laps in a win at Bristol's half-mile concrete layout last month. The speeds are way faster at Dover, but the banking is similar which makes the required set-up similar.

"I really think the way all of our JGR Toyotas have been running, and the way that Martin Truex, Jr. has been running, it’s going to be a really fun weekend," said Edwards. "I think we’re going to have to beat our teammates to win the race. So I look forward to going to Dover. The race itself is a really tough one. You have to stay focused the entire time because of the high speeds in the corners and the difficulty of that racetrack. It’s a pretty intense four hundred laps. It’s a really fun place to win."

I like the Bristol angle and that Edwards has won two of the past four races on the schedule.

We haven't seen a decent payout at over 15/1 odds at Dover since Truex, but there are two drivers that have shown consistency in recent years that will fetch high odds. Kyle Larson (30/1) has a 7.2 average finish over four starts, including a best of third in this race last year. Aric Almirola (100/1) was fifth in both races last year. Kasey Kahne (25/1) was fourth and sixth between the two 2016 races.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #19 Carl Edwards (8/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (15/1)

NASCAR at Dover Betting Odds, Driver Breakdown
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

The 12th race of the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to the northeast for the first time for Sunday's AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. Four of the six drivers to win so far have multiple wins and one of those, Jimmie Johnson, has a Dover record 10 wins over 28 starts, which includes winning three of the past five on the high-banked, one-mile concrete oval known as The Monster Mile.

Because of Johnson's dominance of winning once every 2.8 times on the track, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has installed him as the 7-to-2 favorite. His 2,999 laps led are also a track record, but even when he doesn't dominate, he still manages to find ways to win. Take last spring when eight drivers combined to lead the first 377 laps, but as the race went on he got stronger and the only laps he led on the day were the final 23.

“There is just something about Dover that fits my driving style," said Johnson of his affection for the track. "There is some weird pressure that comes with that — we aren’t too happy when we aren’t running up to our expectations. It’s a tough race for sure and so many things can go wrong but it also suits (No. 48 team crew chief) Chad Knaus' style. When I think back to having 10 wins at Dover I just think about the three or four that got away from me over the years. It’s an unbelievable track, I wish we raced at Dover more than twice a year.”

The rest of the field has their hands full again this week and as you can see by the low price, Johnson winning at Dover is more of an expectancy.

Here's a look at all the drivers odds this week, along their Dover resume:

Jimmie JOHNSON 7/2 - He became the fifth driver to have 10 or more wins at a single track when he won at Dover last May. He's got an eighth-place average finish and has won seven of the past 14 races, which somehow seems to make 7-to-2 odds to win seem like value.

Kyle BUSCH 5/1 - He's a two-time winner — the last in 2010 — and comes in having won three of the past six races to take over the series lead for victories. He finished second in this race last fall. His crew chief and lug nut changer will be suspended for this race, but the system is well rehearsed and ready to roll no matter who sits atop the pit box.

Kevin HARVICK 6/1 - After 30 career Monster Mile starts, he finally got his first victory there last fall by leading 355 of the 400 laps, and he's bringing that same chassis back again this week. In the spring race he led 91 laps and was 23 laps away from victory before being passed and settled for another runner-up. He was the top performer between both 2015 Dover races.

Matt KENSETH 8/1 - He finally broke the funk last week at Kansas with a top-five finish and should be ready to show results that are indicative to what a great car he has weekly. He's got two wins and 15 top-five finishes in 34 career starts.

“Dover is my favorite track," said Kenseth's crew chief Jason Ratliff, "and I know I say that every year, but it’s just a great race track, It’s like Bristol on steroids and it’s just such a cool track that I can’t believe there aren’t more tracks out there like it. We haven’t really gotten some of the finishes there that I felt we deserved though. There is a new tire for Dover this weekend and I think that the aero package will be a lot different going there. I think of all the tracks we go to, that with the new tire and the new package, this weekend could be where we see some changes. The corners are so long, and it’s always been an aero-sensitive track, but hopefully this new package will reduce that and create some better racing.

Carl EDWARDS 10/1 - If Dover can be compared a bit to Bristol's half-mile concrete layout, then Edwards is looking good this week since he led 276 of the 500 laps winning there last month. His lone Dover win came in 2007 and he's averaged a 10.8 finish in 23 starts.

Martin TRUEX JR 10/1 - This is the Marietta, N.J., native's home track and it's also site of his first career Cup win (2007). Last spring he led a race-high 131 laps before finishing sixth. He also led the most laps last week at Kansas. He's got lots of confidence on the home concrete.

“I have a comfort zone when it comes to Dover,” said Truex, who has recorded five top-seven finishes in the last eight Dover races. “I’ve been racing there for a long time and feel I know how to attack the track."

Joey LOGANO 12/1 - Career-best third-place in 2010 and is currently on run of finishing 11th or better in his last eight starts there. He hails from Connecticut so he'll have plenty of friends and family in the stands with hopes of seeing his first victory there, and surprisingly, also his first of 2016.

Denny HAMLIN 12/1 - Career-best fourth-place (twice) and has a 19.2 average in 20 starts. He sat on the pole and led 118 laps last spring before finishing 21st.

“Our FedEx team has the speed needed each week to compete for race wins, but some mistakes that I have made and other issues have taken us out of contention" he said. "Once we clean up some of the mistakes, I think we’ll be back at the front battling for victories. That’s the great part of this new Chase system. We are fortunate to have a win already, so adding wins is all we are focused on at this point."

Brad KESELOWSKI 12/1 - Winner of the 2012 race during the Chase and was runner-up in both 2014 races. He has a 13.3 average over 12 starts. With two wins on the season and locked in to this years Chase, like Hamlin, he's just out there to win which is always good to know when wagering.

Kurt BUSCH 12/1 - He won in 2011 and has an 18.5 average finish over 31 career starts. His third-place finish at Bristol — using that same chassis again this week — could make him one to watch closely in Saturday's final practices. Rain is expected both Friday and Saturday at Dover, so getting practice times while in race trim will be at a premium.

Dale EARNHARDT JR 15/1 - His lone win was way back in 2001 and he's averaged a 15.3 finish over 32 starts. Last fall he finished third.

Chase ELLIOTT 20/1 - Makes his Dover Cup debut, but from what we've seen through 11 races, he certainly doesn't appear to be a rookie. It's quite the contrary. He's cool and collected through each race this year like a 10-year veteran. He has three top-five finishes in the past five races, and seven top-10 finishes through the first 11 races. Only four drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series have more top-10 finishes this year and three of them are former Sprint Cup champions. Yes, he's not your average rookie.

Kasey KAHNE 30/1 - Not his best track statistically with a 19.5 average, but was fourth and sixth, respectively in last years two races, which is something he hopes to build on Sunday.

Kyle LARSON 30/1 - His 7.3 average finish is tops among all drivers at Dover. Of course, it's only four races for him, but he finished third in this race last season.

Austin DILLON 60/1 - In five starts, his best finish was 20th in 2014. He'll be using this weekend's chassis for the first time, but teammates Paul Menard and Ryan Newman used it at Texas and Atlanta, respectively.

Jamie McMURRAY 80/1 - Career-best runner-up in 2006 and then after eight years of mediocre results he finished fourth last spring and seventh in the fall.

Ryan NEWMAN 100/1 - Won three of four races between 2003-04, but hasn't won another since. His last top-five was a runner-up in 2007. He'll be using a chassis that finished 17th at Texas.

“One of the biggest challenges is the concrete itself," he said. "Once your tires build air pressure the seams in the concrete get pretty violent so having a car that rides well is extremely important. You really don’t accelerate a whole lot off the corner because corner speeds are so fast that straightaway speeds are just a little bit faster than your corner speed. Having a car that’s good in the corner is probably more important than having a car fast in the straightaway.”

Ryan BLANEY 100/1 - Makes his Dover Cup debut and comes off a strong fifth-place at Kansas. He finished 11th at Bristol which is the closest comparison to Dover.

Tony STEWART 100/1 - Three-time winner with a 13.5 average finish over his 33 starts where he says the type of racing has changed since he began racing there.

"When we started, you were pretty much stuck around the bottom," Stewart said. "The winner was the guy who could get his car working around the bottom. Now, guys are moving around. The guys who are still fastest are still on the bottom but, if your car is a little bit off, you can move around and not be stuck in that one spot.”

Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1 - Based on his Bristol prowess, you're not getting anything higher than 100-to-1. He had his best career run last fall with eighth-place.

Greg BIFFLE 200/1 - A two-time winner with a 13.8 average finish in 27 starts. His last top-five there was 2009.

Paul MENARD 200/1 - In 17 starts, he's averaged an 18.8 finish with two top-10s, including eighth last May. He's using a brand new chassis this week.

Aric ALMIROLA 200/1 - He's always liked this track from the time he finished sixth in his Cup debut on the track in 2012 to last season when he was fifth in both races.

Trevor BAYNE 300/1 - His odds have been slashed this week similar to teammate Stenhouse just because of being good at Bristol, where Bayne was fifth last month. Nothing to brag about in two previous Dover Cup starts, but the Xfinity Series is another where had six top-10s in seven starts.

AJ ALLMENDINGER 500/1 - A 23rd-place average over 16 starts that includes three top-10s.

Clint BOWYER 500/1 - Among active drivers with at least five Dover starts, he's third-best with an 11.8 average finish. He's been 14th or better in his past 10 starts there, a streak that is sure to be tested greatly with the junk he's been given this season.

Casey MEARS 500/1 - A 23.3 average finish in 26 starts.

Danica PATRICK 500/1 - In seven starts she's averaged a 23.5 finish with a best of 15th last May.

“I always like going to Dover," she said. "The track is pretty fun. It’s fast and it can make for a really long day of racing. I think that’s part of the appeal of it — how demanding it can be. We definitely want to stay out of trouble, which is easier said than done at these types of tracks.”

Chris BUESCHER 500/1 - Makes his Dover Cup debut, but does have an Xfinity win from last season under his belt.

FIELD 500/1 - Instead of wasting money on this wager, try investing it on a driver that can actually win. Johnson has won half the races there over the past seven years, so he's not bad at 7-to-1, but the best value of all might be 10-to-1 on Edwards. The best long shot candidates to win are Kahne and Larson at 30-to-1 each.

Dover Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

Who's HOT At Dover

Kyle Busch – Where isn’t he hot these days? The defending Sprint Cup Series champion goes into Dover on the heels of win No. 3 of 2016 last weekend at Kansas Speedway. His record at Dover isn’t eye-popping, with his last win there in 2011. But it’s hard to bet against Busch these days.

Jimmie Johnson – He used to own the deed to Dover, although things have been a little lean in recent years for Johnson - at least by his standards. The all-time Dover winner has "only" won three of the last five races there but does have a 41st-place performance last fall.

Kevin Harvick – Things have changed for Harvick in recent years and the 2014 champion has been better at the one-mile concrete oval. He heads into the weekend after finishing second to Kyle Busch last week in Kansas and has an average Dover finish of 8.2 in his last 10 starts.

Martin Truex Jr. – It’s a "home game" for the New Jersey native and he’ll have something to prove after last week’s disappointment in Kansas. Truex is a former Dover winner and has three top-10 finishes there in his last four starts.

Joey Logano – The Team Penske driver has only finished outside the top 10 at Dover once dating back to 2011 and that was an 11th-place finish last year. He's still looking for his first win of 2016.

Who's NOT

Austin Dillon – His great start to the year will be tested at Dover, where the Richard Childress Racing driver has not performed well in his Sprint Cup Series career. His best finish is 20th in five starts.

Danica Patrick – She carries an average finish of 23.6 into Sunday’s race, which will be her eighth career Dover Sprint Cup Series start. Her best finish came last year, when she was 15th.

Greg Biffle – There was a time when Biffle was strong at Dover, but he’s fallen on hard times in recent years. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has just one top 10 in his last 10 starts at "The Monster Mile” with an average finish of 18.6.

Casey Mears – The Germain Racing driver has a bloated 27.3 average finish over his last 10 Dover starts, and was 27th and 24th last season.

Ryan Newman – Last week’s top 10 at Kansas Speedway may be hard for Newman to match based on his Dover history in recent seasons. The RCR driver does have a pair of eighth-place finishes in his last 10 starts but an average finish of 20.0 dating back to 2011.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Dover

Kyle Larson – The body of work isn’t much, but Larson has been impressive at Dover in limited starts. He has the highest average finish among active drivers at 7.3 over four career starts.

Aric Almirola – The Richard Petty Motorsports No. 43 ride has fared well at Dover in recent seasons. Almirola posted a pair of fifth-place finishes there in 2015.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Still winless in 2016 and although he hasn’t won at Dover, he runs well there and knocked down a third-place finish last fall.

Jamie McMurray – Like his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Larson, McMurray can find the sweet spot at Dover. He had a pair of top-10 finishes last year and was fourth in the fall race.

Clint Bowyer – He has just one finish outside the top 10 in his last 10 Dover starts. However, the challenge of overcoming the HScott Motorsports struggles will be a major factor in whether Bowyer can keep up his Dover prowess.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
John Singler: Matt Kenseth
Jeff Wackerlin: Jimmie Johnson
Robbie Mays: Martin Truex Jr.

Drivers to Watch - Dover
By Sportsbook.ag

Jimmie Johnson will be looking to win his third straight AAA 400 Drive for Autism when the Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover on Sunday. For those who may be confused, this race used to be known as the FedEx 400 benefitting Austism Speaks.

Johnson has dominated this event, winning his fifth race and second straight in 2015. He is tied with Bobby Allison for most wins ever in this race.

Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart have all had success here as well, winning twice each. This track is not a very long one, running only a mile long.

Chevrolet is the manufacturer with the most victories in this race and Hendricks Motorsports’ nine victories is more than any other team.

With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be winning this thing on Sunday:

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - As previously mentioned, Johnson has mastered this track throughout his career. He has now won the AAA 400 Drive for Autism five times in his career (2002, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015) and has also won it each of the past two seasons. Johnson is extremely comfortable racing here and he also will have plenty of reasons to be hungry for a victory in this one. Johnson has really struggled the past two weeks, finishing 22nd two weeks ago and 17th last week. He can use a good placing at this race and it’s hard to imagine him not being near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. He’s worth putting a few units on at 4/1.

Kyle Busch (5/1) - Busch is yet another one of the favorites to win this thing, so it’s not necessarily groundbreaking to be considering him this weekend. He is, however, a favorite for good reason and that is why he’ll be worth putting a few units on at 5/1 this weekend. Busch has been absolutely dominant on the year, winning three races and coming in the top five on nine separate occasions. Busch also happens to have won last week’s GoBowling 400, so he’ll be feeling confident entering this race. Outside of Johnson, Busch is tied for the most wins here amongst current drivers and he certainly will be hoping to catch Johnson at some point in his career.

Chase Elliott (20/1) - Elliott has pretty much become a staple on this list, but it’s just too hard to stay away from him. The rookie has been racing extremely well recently, finishing in the top 10 in four of the past five races. Elliott has a ton of poise for somebody his age and it’s very hard to imagine him not winning a single race this season. This is a very good one to back him at, as he’s receiving 28/1 odds and would pay off rather nicely if he were to win. He should be near the front of the pack in the race’s final laps, so it’s worth putting a unit or half-unit on him Sunday.

Tony Stewart (100/1) - Stewart might not be the first guy that comes to mind when trying to pick a winner in the Sprint Cup these days, but he is a pretty good dark horse candidate this weekend. Like Kyle Busch, Stewart has won this race twice in his career and he also happens to be the last person to win that wasn’t named Jimmie Johnson. It also doesn’t hurt that Stewart has looked solid since returning to racing, coming in sixth two weeks ago and 12th last week. He’s worth a half-unit at 66/1.