AAA 400 News and Notes

Glance at 12 drivers in the Chase

A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Dover International Speedway (in order of points):

DRIVER: Mark Martin

CHASE POINTS: first, 5,230 points

CAR: No. 5 Carquest/Kellogg's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 46

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (4 times, last 2004)

LAST WEEK: Is this the year? Finally? The Chase's top seed started off with a win at New Hampshire, one where he may - or may not - have brake-checked Juan Pablo Montoya. He's one of the best cars week in and week out regardless of the track and finished 10th at Dover during the spring race.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I've swallowed some pretty big pills in my racing career, so I'm cautious about expecting things,'' Martin said.

DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson

CHASE POINTS: second, -35

CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 15

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (4 times, last spring 2009)

LAST WEEK: Here's the scary part about Johnson's fourth-place finish at New Hampshire: he barely made a blip on the radar all day. Instead he hovered in the top 10 all race until it was time to race and then was right there.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We were running strong all day long, and I'm glad we got a good top-five,'' said Johnson. ``Great start to the Chase, very happy with things.''

DRIVER: Denny Hamlin

CHASE POINTS: third, -35

CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 7

BEST DOVER FINISH: Fourth

LAST WEEK: Continued his recent surge by running a strong second behind Martin, his best finish in a Chase race. His team keeps getting better, though he hasn't had much success at the Monster Mile during his brief career.

CHASE CHATTER: ``To come out second when I should have been about fifth with those restarts, I was pretty proud of that,'' Hamlin said.

DRIVER: Juan Pablo Montoya

CHASE POINTS: fourth, -55

CAR: No. 42 Target Chevrolet

TEAM: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 7

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 5

BEST DOVER FINISH: 10th

LAST WEEK: Set a qualifying record at New Hampshire, dominated practice and led a ton of laps before Martin outfoxed him at the end. Montoya blamed it on a lack of experience, after hinting Martin may have bent the rules a little bit to get the win. Bad news about Dover? He's never finished on the lead lap.

CHASE CHATTER: ``You've got to learn from it,'' Montoya said. ``I haven't fought for enough wins. Did I get screwed? yeah, because I got (Hamlin) beside me the last three laps, and (Martin) drove away.''

DRIVER: Kurt Busch

CHASE POINTS: fifth, -65

CAR: No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 18

BEST DOVER FINISH: 4th

LAST WEEK: Sixth-place finish at New Hampshire showed he could be a factor throughout the Chase despite crew chief Pat Tryson's imminent departure. However, he lost a handful of precious points when he let little brother Kyle slip by him on the last lap.

CHASE CHATTER: ``If there had been no debris cautions, we would have finished second,'' Busch said. ``It was tough, a hard-fought battle all day.''

DRIVER: Tony Stewart

CHASE POINTS: sixth, -74

CAR: No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart/Haas Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 4

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 21

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (twice, last in 2000)

LAST WEEK: Smoke looked like he had arguably the best car in the field at New Hampshire before a wheel problem led to a lengthy pit stop that put him at the back of the field and he finished 14th.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We let him down,'' crew chief Darian Grubb said. ``We have to assemble that car to the utmost of our abilities, and we just didn't.''

DRIVER: Ryan Newman

CHASE POINTS: seventh, -79

CAR: No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart/Haas Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 15

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (three times, last in 2004)

LAST WEEK: A solid seventh at New Hampshire could have been even better if not for the run-in between Dale Earnhardt Jr. and David Reutimann that forced him to give up some track position with 17 laps to go.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We're in the hunt,'' Newman said. ``If we get to running like Mark (Martin) there, we'll be all right.''

DRIVER: Brian Vickers

CHASE POINTS: eighth, -90

CAR: No. 83 Red Bull Toyota

TEAM: Red Bull Racing

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 11

BEST DOVER FINISH: 6th

LAST WEEK: The hottest driver heading into the Chase cooled off, but only a little. Finished 11th at New Hampshire and made almost zero mistakes. Could he be this year's surprise?

CHASE CHATTER: ``If we want to win this championship we have to stop beating ourselves,'' Vickers said. ``That's kind of been our motto and we've done a really good job the past 10 weeks.''

DRIVER: Greg Biffle

CHASE POINTS: ninth, -92

CAR: No. 16 3M Scotch Brand Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 14

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (twice, last in 2008)

LAST WEEK: Salvaged a top-10 despite a middling qualifying effort and making no real run at the leaders. Not great but could have been worse. Has always been strong at Dover, he'll need to be again if he wants to be taken seriously.

CHASE CHATTER: ``All I needed to do was get track position and I could have been there,'' Biffle said. ``I knew that once I got up there I could run with them, but I could just never get there.''

DRIVER: Jeff Gordon

CHASE POINTS: 10th, -102

CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 4

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 33

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (four times, last in 2001)

LAST WEEK: Said early at New Hampshire that if his crew could figure out the car, the rest of the field would be in trouble. They never did and he wound up 15th. Not time to panic. Yet.

CHASE CHATTER: ``It just wasn't a good day for us,'' Gordon said. ``It's one we've just got to put behind us and go on.''

DRIVER: Carl Edwards

CHASE POINTS: 11th, -113

CAR: No. 99 Aflac Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 2

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 10

BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st

LAST WEEK: Almost a total nonfactor while finishing 17th at New Hampshire, though his foot injury seems to at least have taken the focus off his winless season.

CHASE CHATTER: ``It could have been a disaster, because a lot of guys had more trouble than us, so we'll take it,'' Edwards said. ``Our car just struggled all day and I couldn't go fast.''

DRIVER: Kasey Kahne

CHASE POINTS: 12th, -161

CAR: No. 9 Budweiser Dodge

TEAM: Richard Petty Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 7

CAREER DOVER STARTS: 11

BEST DOVER FINISH: 6th

LAST WEEK: Disaster struck early in New Hampshire, when a crankshaft blew 67 laps in. He finished 38th and tumbled from fifth to 12th in points.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We need to make sure we don't have issues and finish these races out strong,'' Kahne said. ``We're going to have to win and get extra points and do everything we can to fight back after this.''

Odds and Ends - Dover
VegasInsider.com

Dover International Speedway Data

Race #: 28 of 36 (9-27-09)
Track Size: 1 mile
· Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
· Banking/Straights: 9 degrees
· Frontstretch: 1,076 feet
· Backstretch: 1,076 feet

Driver Rating at Dover

Greg Biffle 117.0
Matt Kenseth 113.9
Jimmie Johnson 108.2
Carl Edwards 106.6
Mark Martin 100.6
Kyle Busch 100.3
Ryan Newman 98.4
Martin Truex Jr. 94.3
Kurt Busch 93.5
Clint Bowyer 90.2

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Dover.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (157.061 mph, 22.921 seconds)
2008 race winner: Greg Biffle (114.168 mph, 9-21-08)
Track qualifying record: Jeremy Mayfield (161.522 mph, 22.288 secs., 6-4-04)

Track race record: Mark Martin (132.719 mph, 9-21-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 72-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.

AAA 400 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NASCAR points leader Mark Martin kicked off the Chase to the Championship last week with a win at New Hampshire, the 40th win of his career, giving him a little breathing room as the Series rolls into Dover, Delaware this weekend.

This will be the second time the Series has visited Dover this season. In the first episode, Jimmie Johnson led the most laps in winning his fourth career race at Dover, but he had to battle Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle down the stretch making the winning pass with only three laps to go.

The one-mile concrete oval is a fast high banked track that doesn’t really resemble any track on the circuit. Some of the crew chiefs will bring their Bristol chassis’ from a few weeks ago because the set-up requirements are similar since Bristol changed it’s layout a few years ago.

For Martin, Dover has been a place he’s had lots of success at. In his 47 career starts, he has 29 top-10 finishes that include four wins - the last coming in 2004. Martin has become the NASCAR Nation overwhelming choice to win it all just because of the 50 year old is just an all-around good guy.

How can you not root for a driver that has stood the test of time with excellence throughout his career, but has never won a title? He’s finished second in points on four separate occasions with the last coming in 2002. His support comes from his regular long time fans, but down the stretch he’s finding fans from all over, in particular, the Junior Nation.

The massive allegiance of supporters who followed Dale Earnhardt and the current army of Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans have all jumped on board the Mark Martin wagon. That good ole’ boy down home quality Martin exemplifies has endeared both old school and new school NASCAR fans to his side.

Martin’s success story has even crossed over into other realms because of his age. He’s finding new fans from all over who are inspired about his ability despite not knowing much about the sport. I’ll bet that Pfizer wishes they still had their logo on his hood for this type of marketing dream sweepstakes.

Drivers who will contend for the win this week begin with Greg Biffle, who is now in ninth place and 92 points behind Martin. Biffle won this race last season and has finished in the top-3 in his last four starts. Overall, Biffle has two wins on the track.

"I will be disappointed if we are not in contention for the win this weekend at Dover, Biffle said. We led several laps there in the spring and won this race last year. Our pit crew is at the top of their game week in and week out. I was at the shop this week going over our notes from Dover with Greg (Erwin) so we would be ready to hit the ground running as soon as we unload. Dover is a great racetrack, the racing is good and as a driver, it’s a fun place to race. We need a good finish there to keep Mark Martin in our sights. If we can keep gaining a little every week, we’ll be right there in contention for the title at Homestead."

Biffle and Erwin will be bringing the chassis that they ran at both Pocono race.

Carl Edwards is still winless this year, a major shock since he won nine races last season. He has the best average finish at Dover at 7.6 and did just that in the earlier race this season with a 7th place finish. Edwards is 11th in points, 113 points behind.

Tony Stewart started his career out doing very well at Dover, capturing two wins and nine top-5’s and then he went into four year slump with no top-5’s. In his first outing with at Dover with his new team, he finished second and would have won had the race been 397 laps. Look for Stewart to be top contender to win this week. He’s now sixth in points after leading for much of the season.

Kyle Busch isn’t in the Chase, but should be a good candidate to do well based on his record at the Dover and his recent success at Bristol. Busch’s last win of the season was at Bristol, similar in ways to Dover, and his last Dover win was last year. No pressure on Busch now, it’s all about wins and finishing the season strong, something that evaded him down the stretch last year.

Kurt Busch has not had the best of success at Dover over his career. He’s only had three top-5’s in his career, but he did have one those top-5’s this year. Even though his crew chief Pat Tryson is in lame duck status, and only allowed into Penske headquarters for Tuesday meetings, Tryson still wants that Championship attached to his resume before he leaves.

Jimmie Johnson won at Dover earlier in the year, but is bringing the chassis he drove at Michigan that led 133 laps before running out of fuel late in the race. The chassis he won with at Dover will serve as a back-up. He is favored, not just because of his wins on the track, but more so because of how dominant he’s been in Chase races winning a NASCAR record 14 times.

This week was supposed to be the debut of betting NASCAR at the track of Dover, Delaware, something that not even Las Vegas has. Sports betting was approved in Delaware a month ago, but a crusade led by the NFL stopped straight betting and wagers taken on other sports. The only thing that can be bet in Delaware now is parlays on NFL games which have drawn far less action over the first two weeks than expected.

If action on the NASCAR race had been allowed on site, the figures would have blown away what they are currently writing on NFL parlays. Imagine three days of racing on a track holds 100,000. Figure that at least half of them would wager an average of maybe $50 with the house expected hold of about 40%. It would’ve been spectacular for the fans and also the state of Delaware who is now going to have a tough time matching their lofty budgeted goals.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #16 Greg Biffle (11/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (9/1)
3) #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #5 Mark Martin (8/1)

Driver Handicaps: Dover
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway for Sunday's AAA 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.

Who's HOT at Dover
• Greg Biffle has the best driver rating (117.0) over the last nine races.
• Four-time winner Mark Martin leads all drivers with 21 top fives.
• June winner Jimmie Johnson has four wins and 10 top 10s in 15 starts.
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 7.6 average finish.
• Four-time winner Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with 2,231 laps led.
• Three-time winner Ryan Newman has the second-best average finish (10.3).
• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top five in his last three starts.

Keep an Eye on at Dover
• Martin Truex Jr. has one win and an average finish of 12.2 at Dover with the new car.
• Tony Stewart has a 11.7 average finish and has led 1,072 laps at Dover.
• Juan Pablo Montoya has finished in the top 10 in six of the last 10 races in 2009.
• Jeff Burton has an 8.5 average finish in his last eight races at Dover.
• Kyle Busch has led 158 laps and has scored one win with the new car at Dover.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be driving the same car that finished 12th at Dover in June and ninth at Bristol in August.

RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Jimmie Johnson
Pete Pistone: Carl Edwards
Rachael West: Greg Biffle

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Dover unless noted)

1. Mark Martin: Four-time winner in 46 starts; His 21 top-five finishes and 1,723 laps led are a personal best at any track; Finished 10th this spring in track debut with Hendrick; Making 750th career Spring Cup Series start this weekend; Drove same chassis (No. 5-527) that brought him to victory lane at Darlington.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Four-time winner; Led 298 laps en route to the spring victory; Swept the events in first year in series in 2002, leading 358 laps in the two races; Has led a total of 935 laps in 15 starts; Average finish is 10.4 with 10 top-10 finishes; Only two finishes outside the top 15 were as a result of crashes; Piloting Chassis No. 552; Ran out of gas after leading 133 laps with the car at Michigan in August.

3. Denny Hamlin: Two top-10 finishes in seven starts, with a best fourth in the spring 2007 race; Last four results have been 36th or worse; Suffered his only DNF of the season so far at the first race after a cut tire sent him into the wall while running in second; Average finish is 25.6; Bringing chassis No. 232, which was last run at Atlanta to a sixth-place result.

4. Juan Pablo Montoya: One top-10 finish in five starts in this event in 2007; Led his first laps at the track (three) in the spring race but finished 30th; Average finish is 24.4; Debuting a new chassis (No. 905)

5. Kurt Busch: Posted his first top five in five races with a fifth-place this spring; Second top five since joining Penske Racing and fifth top-10 finish in 18 total starts; Average finish is 20.5; Debuting a new chassis (PRS-700).

6. Tony Stewart: Debuted with a second-place finish this spring with his new team; Led laps (six) for the first time since the spring of 2004; Has led 1,072 total laps in 21 starts; Swept the race victories in 2000; Has 10 top fives and 13 top 10s and an average finish of 11.7.

7. Ryan Newman: Finished eighth in debut with Stewart-Haas this spring; First top 10 in four races; Three-time winner with Penske Racing, including a sweep in 2003; Has led 813 laps in 15 starts, including 325 en route to victory in this race in 2004; Average finish is 10.3.

8. Brian Vickers: Best finish with Red Bull Racing was 13th in spring of 2008; Finished 25th this spring; Only has one top-10 finish in 11 starts; Average finish is 21.5; Has finished 12th or better in the past 10 races this season; Will become the youngest driver to make 200th Cup Series start this weekend.

9. Greg Biffle: Defending winner of this race; Two-time winner with 463 laps led; Last four straight races have been top fives; Has the best average with the new car of 3.0; Nine top 10s in 14 starts with an overall average finish of 10.6; Racing with chassis No. 585 that raced at both Pocono races in 2009 to a best 11th in the first race.

10. Jeff Gordon: Four wins, four poles, 14 top-fives and 20 top-10's in 33 starts; Last won in 2001 after leading 381 laps from the second-starting position; Finished 26th this spring after forced to a back up from a wreck in qualifying and an untimely pit during the race; Average finish is 12.4.

11. Carl Edwards: One victory and five top fives in 10 starts; 2007 victory is in the middle of a streak of six consecutive top-10 finishes; Has never finished worse than 18th (track debut, 2004); Average finish of 7.6 is best of all active drivers; Third-best track on the circuit in laps led with a total of 297 laps led over his last seven races; Running with same chassis (RK-596) from spring race that he led 12 laps with en route to a seventh-place finish.

12. Kasey Kahne: Finished a career-best sixth in the spring; Has two top-10 finishes in 11 starts and an average finish of 24.1; Led on two occasions for a total of 64 laps.

13. Kyle Busch: Led 158 laps en route to victory in the spring of 2008; Has five top-five finishes in nine starts, but none since his victory; Suffered a front splitter issue this spring that resulted in 23rd-place finish; Had an engine failure last fall to finish 43rd; Average finish is 15.3.

14. Matt Kenseth: Won the 2006 Spring race with 83 laps led; Has led laps in all but one race since then and has led 693 laps in 21 starts; Has three consecutive top-five finishes including a runner-up last fall; Only finish outside the top 10 in his last seven starts was the result of engine failure after leading 192 laps in this event in 2007; Average finish is 13.6.

15. Clint Bowyer: All three top-10 finishes in seven starts have been eighth-place results; Three other finishes of 17th or better have contributed to a 14.3 average finish; Second running for Chassis No. 284 that finished 29th at Atlanta in debut.

16. David Reutimann: Won the pole and led 15 laps in the spring en route to an 18th-place finish; Best finish in four starts was 17th last fall; Average finish is 20.0.

17. Marcos Ambrose: Finished a best 20th in the spring in his second start; Average finish is 26.0.

18. Jeff Burton: Has an average finish of 11.3 in 10 starts with RCR with only one of those finishes outside the top 16; Captured victory with RCR in this event in 2006; Has six total top fives and 13 top 10s in 31 starts; Chassis No. 283 making its fourth appearance this season; Best finish with the car was an 18th-place result at Michigan in August.

19. Joey Logano: Made NASCAR debut at track in Nationwide Series in June of 2008; Cup track debut this spring resulted in 15th-place finish from 21st starting position; Bringing new chassis this weekend (No. 255).

20. Casey Mears: Finished ninth in debut with RCR this spring; Third top-10 finish in 13 starts; Best finish was sixth in this event in 2007 with Hendrick Motorsports; Average finish is 20.4; Bringing sixth-place Michigan chassis (No. 282).

21. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Won the Fall 2001 race after leading 193 laps; Has led 366 laps in 19 starts, but hasn't led a lap since the Spring of 2006; Finished 12th in the Spring for his best of three finishes with Hendrick Motorsports; Average finish is 17.1 with seven top 10s; Returning with same chassis (No. 88-526) from spring race that also finished ninth at Bristol in August.

22. Kevin Harvick: One of six top-10 finishes came in fall race last year after a string of four finishes of 20th or worse; Average finish in 17 starts is 18.4; Finished 17th this spring after falling a lap down on a pit miscue; Piloting Chassis No. 287 for the first time.

23. Jamie McMurray: Best finish came in track debut with Roush Racing - a second in the spring of 2006 with 95 laps led; Has posted two more top-10 finishes since then; Second best track in laps led with 131 total laps; Driving Chassis RK-640 that was last raced at Chicago to a 22nd-place finish.

24. Martin Truex Jr.: Site of first career Cup Series victory (Spring, 2007); Led 216 of the race's 400 laps; Only top five at the track in seven starts; Worst finish was 22nd in track debut in 2006; Driving Chassis No. 804 that was last run at Bristol to a 26th-place finish.

25. Elliott Sadler: Last of three top 10s came in this event in 2005 with Yates Racing; Has a 25.8 average finish since leaving that team; 21.4 average finish overall in 21 starts.

26. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 29th in his debut with RPM this spring; Best finish in five starts was 16th last fall with Red Bull; Average finish is 31.6.

27. Sam Hornish Jr.: Finished a best 13th this spring in three starts; Rallied back from two laps down to advance seven spots with just under 30 laps to go in the spring; Average finish is 24.3 due to a crash in the fall last year and subsequent 42nd-place finish.

28. Reed Sorenson: Yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts; Average finish is 23.1; Four laps led in the June race was the first time he led laps this season; Was running in top 10 until a bad pit stop pushed him out with about 70 laps remaining; Finished 19th.

29. Bobby Labonte: Won the spring 1999 event from the pole after leading 44 laps; 11 top-five finishes in 34 starts, but hasn't had one since the spring of 2003; After running in the top 10 for most of the race, pit road penalties this spring left him with a 28th-place finish; Average finish is 16.8.

30. David Ragan: Best finish of 14th came in spring of 2007; 23.0 average finish in six starts

Johnson tops in qualifying at Dover

Dover, DE (Sports Network) - Jimmie Johnson scorched the field in qualifying at Dover International Speedway on Friday to grab the pole for the AAA 400.

Johnson, who won at Dover in May, lapped the one-mile concrete oval at 157.356 m.p.h. (22.878 seconds) in his No.48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet for his second pole of the season and the 21st of his Sprint Cup Series career. He also won the pole for the 2007 Dover fall race.

"Qualifying was really good, our car has been super fast off the truck," Johnson said. "It was an exciting lap for sure. I think the track changed a little bit more than we anticipated, and I really had to hang on to it the entire way around the lap."

Johnson also led the way in the first Sprint Cup practice here earlier in the day.

Currently 35 points behind leader Mark Martin, Johnson is looking to capture his record fourth consecutive Cup championship this year. He is a four-time race winner at Dover. Johnson's pole will play into his favor as far as track position, since he will occupy the first pit stall.

"There's so much time to be gained on pit road, and the fact that you only have to go a few short feet to cross the camera line [pit road exit line] makes all the difference in the world," he said.

Juan Pablo Montoya, who won the pole and finished third last weekend at New Hampshire, secured the outside pole after turning a lap at 156.699 m.p.h. Montoya was the first driver to qualify in the 44-car field.

Ryan Newman qualified third, and Greg Biffle was fourth.

"We really weren't any good at all from when we unloaded today," Newman said. "It was a good run for us."

The top-four finishers in qualifying are Chase contenders.

David Reutimann, the pole winner here earlier this year, completed the top- five.

Chase drivers Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon were sixth and seventh. Clint Bowyer qualified eighth, followed by Sam Hornish Jr. and Paul Menard.

The remaining drivers in the Chase and their starting positions include: Brian Vickers (12th), Denny Hamlin (13th), Martin (14th) Kurt Busch (16th), Tony Stewart (22nd) and Carl Edwards (30th).

Martin also started 14th before winning the first race in the Chase at New Hampshire.

Scott Wimmer was the only driver who failed to qualify.

Sunday's 400-mile race is scheduled to start just after 2:00 p.m. (et).

AAA 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

Mark Martin will try to extend his 35-point lead over Jimmie Johnson in the Chase for the Spring Cup at the “Monster Mile” of Dover, Delaware for the AAA 400 on Sunday, September 27 at 2 p.m.

This will be the second of NASCAR’s ten-race playoff format known as the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Gamblers should keep in mind that seven different drivers have won at Dover in the last seven races so the trend has leaned toward prior performance has little influence over repeat results.

Who will win the 2009 AAA 400

Two huge beneficiaries after last week’s Sylvania 300 were Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya. JPM moved up seven spots to fourth in the standings -55 points while Newman moved up five spots to seventh in the standings -79 points behind Martin in the standings. Neither Montoya nor Newman are locks to stay or move higher than where they are, but we will see. Newman’s team mate at Stewart-Haas Racing, Tony Stewart, didn’t fare so well and dropped three places to sixth place. Since leading the points for practically the entire season Stewart has no top-tens in the last five races and has moved down in the standings ever since the points reset (I am sure Jeff Gordon would commiserate). Speaking of, Gordon dropped four spots to tenth and will need a good showing at Dover if he hopes to cut into the -102 points.

Meanwhile, after one race Kasey Kahne is already out of the Chase as he lost seven spots thanks to a 38th place finish and an insurmountable -161 points away from first. And with the infighting at Richard Petty Motorsports it doesn’t appear that Kahne will get any better this week. I’d steer clear of the No. 9 car on Sunday.

Before the Sylvania 300 I wrote I really liked backing Hamlin at 8/1 to win the Chase and New Hampshire did nothing to change my mind. Hamlin finished second and proved that he has a realistic shot at the Sprint Cup. I loved how he managed to wrestle a second place away from JPM. While Hamlin is also -35 points behind Martin Johnson gets the nod for second due to season wins. However, this week I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamlin drop a spot or two since Hamlin struggles at the Monster Mile. Hamlin is set at 8/1 and even those odds are way to generous for a driver who in seven starts has no wins, one top-five and two-top tens. In his last four races his best finish was in May when he finished 36th. No thanks I am passing on Hamlin on Sunday due to the fact there is way too much downside risk in either win or top-three markets.

There are two drivers who have no business not winning this Sunday; Johnson and Greg Biffle. Not a big surprise since both drivers has dominated at Dover. Hendrick Motorsports’ Johnson is set at 9/2 to win the AAA 400 and for good reason. Johnson is a four-time winner at the concrete mixing bowl. He won in May and came in fifth last fall en route to his third Sprint Cup. Johnson also swept Dover in 2002 and won it in May of 2005. Johnson finished fourth at NHMS last week which was good enough to move him into second place in the standings after one race. Obviously Johnson is always a threat to win, but despite this the concrete mile doesn’t play to his strengths and given his comfy position in the standings I don’t expect Johnson to take unnecessary risks to win this race either.

Rousch Fenway Racings’ Greg Biffle is set at 10/1 to win the AAA 400. Biffle is coming off of a ninth place finish last week and cracked the top-ten moving up two spots to ninth in the NSCS standings. Nobody has been more consistent at Dover than two-time winner Biffle who in the last six starts has posted one win and five top-five finishes. More impressive is that in those six races Biffle has led a combined 300 laps. If you aren’t convinced he can beat Johnson on Sunday it is folly not backing him as a top-three finisher at 3/1.

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (10/1)

2009 AAA 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Last Saturday at the Sylvania 300 my pick, Denny Hamlin, paid off 9/5 by virtue of his second place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The one mile oval of Dover is one of two all concrete tracks on the NASCAR circuit and features a fast bumpy surface. “Concrete” Carl Edwards, set at 11/1 to win on Sunday, usually excels on this surface, hence his namesake, however, given that Edwards is still nursing a broken foot and Rousch Fenway Racings problems this season, the winless Edwards will need a great car to win on Sunday. Edwards is coming off of a 17th place finish at NHMS, which kept Edwards in 11th place in the Chase, to start his Sprint Cup quest. Keep in mind that Edwards has finished seventh or better in his last six races at Dover and won in 2007. Edwards is going to need a top-three finish at Dover to keep up with the likes of Martin, Johnson, Hamlin and Stewart. Broken foot and all I like “Concrete” Carl to represent on Sunday.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (10/3)

AAA 400 - Preview and Predictions
By Smooth44

The second race of the Chase takes place today at Dover, known as the Monster Mile and marks the 80th race here for NASCAR. Leading to my picks to win today it is important to take into account some history:

* 32 different drivers have posted victories at Dover.
* Hendrick Motorsports has 11 wins at Dover, more than any other car owner.
* 47 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position; 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
* The furthest back in the field a race winner started at Dover is 37th.
* Three of the last four races at Dover have ended with a margin of victory under one second.

Item 3 really sticks out to me with 60% of all races won from the top 5 starting position so let's look at the top 5 qualifiers:

Pos Driver Car Speed
1 Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 157.356
2 Juan Pablo Montoya Chevrolet 156.699
3 Ryan Newman Chevrolet 156.393
4 Greg Biffle Ford 156.284
5 David Reutimann Toyota 155.979

From the list I will immediately eliminate Montoya who has struggled terribly at this track in the past, Reutimann who is not a Chase contender, and Johnson who, at +350 odds, represents no value in my opinion leaving me with the following:

1. Ryan Newman (15 to 1): Tremendous odds here given the history stated above. Newman is a 3 time winner at Dover and possesses the 2nd best career average finish here.

2. Greg Biffle (7 to 1): Biffle performed well for us last week and the short odds here suggests he is a legitimate prospect to win. Greg has 9 top 10 finishes here during his career including 6 top 5s and 2 wins.

3. Mark Martin (7 to 1): With the history and success of the Hendrick's team here I can not ignore Martin, especially because of his personal success here too. Martin has performed better here than any other track in his career posting 21 top 5 finishes including 4 wins.

4. Jeff Gordon (16 to 1): Like Martin, with the history and success of the Hendrick's team here I can not ignore Gordon, especially at these odds. Gordon has done very well here during his career posting 14 top 5 finishes including 4 wins.

Interesting fact: From 2001-2009 a typical Dover race had 15.2 lead changes, 8.4 cautions for 49.1 laps, and an average green-flag run of 37.4 laps (source: NASCAR)

Enjoy the race!