AAA Texas 500 Betting News and Notes

Driver Highlights - Texas

1 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.5

2011 Rundown

One win, 16 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 10.0
Led 22 races for 743 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 16.5 in 13 races
Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 98.3, fifth-best
288 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.956 mph, fourth-fastest
3,362 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), third-most
512 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

2 - Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.4

2011 Rundown

Three wins, six top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 13.0
Led 18 races for 515 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 13.2 in 19 races
Series-best Average Running Position of 9.0
Driver Rating of 102.9, second-best
287 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.043 mph
Series-high 3,561 Laps in the Top 15 (81.8%)
488 Quality Passes, seventh-most

3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Rheem Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.3

2011 Rundown

Four wins, nine top fives, 18 top 10s
Average finish of 11.3
Led 16 races for 391 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Three top fives, eight top 10s
Average finish of 12.9 in 17 races
Average Running Position of 16.1, 13th-best
Driver Rating of 83.2, 14th-best
919 Green Flag Passes, third-most
375 Quality Passes, 13th-most

4 - Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 86.9

2011 Rundown

Three wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 14.3
Led 17 races for 281 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Average finish of 23.7 in six races
Average Running Position of 25.3, 30th-best
Driver Rating of 57.3, 32nd-best

5 - Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.0

2011 Rundown

Three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.0
Led 20 races for 724 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 9.0 in 18 races
Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
Series-best Driver Rating of 105.2
250 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
947 Green Flag Passes, second-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.997 mph, third-fastest
3,326 Laps in the Top 15 (76.4%), fourth-most
525 Quality Passes, second-most

6 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 MyLowe's Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.6

2011 Rundown

Two wins, 14 top fives, 21 top 10s
Average finish of 11.2
Led 21 races for 1,112 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 9.9 in 16 races
Average Running Position of 12.5, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 98.8, fourth-best
242 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.648 mph, ninth-fastest
3,052 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), fifth-most
495 Quality Passes, sixth-most

7 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 106.1

2011 Rundown

Four wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.0
Led 25 races for 1,439 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Four top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 16.2 in 13 races
Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 97.5, seventh-best
203 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
796 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.890 mph, fifth-fastest
2,951 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), seventh-most
480 Quality Passes, eighth-most

8 - Kurt Busch (No. 22 AAA Dodge)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.1

2011 Rundown

Two wins, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 13.3
Led 19 races for 713 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, three top fives, 11 top 10s
Average finish of 13.6 in 17 races
Average Running Position of 13.7, 10th-best
Driver Rating of 92.0, 10th-best
174 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
852 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.478 mph, 11th-fastest
2,801 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), eighth-most
442 Quality Passes, ninth-most

9 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Heritage/AMP Energy Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.3

2011 Rundown

Four top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 14.5
Led 9 races for 52 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, three top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 14.5 in 18 races
Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
Driver Rating of 93.1, eighth-best
162 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
900 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.718 mph, seventh-fastest
3,392 Laps in the Top 15 (77.9%), second-most
Series-high 562 Quality Passes

10 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.8

2011 Rundown

Three wins, 12 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.9
Led 21 races for 915 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 17.3 in 21 races
Average Running Position of 14.7, 12th-best
Driver Rating of 89.2, 11th-best
199 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
2,509 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), 11th-most
407 Quality Passes, 11th-most

11 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.1

2011 Rundown

One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 16.2
Led 15 races for 450 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
Average finish of 9.3 in 12 races
Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
Driver Rating of 97.8, sixth-best
157 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
853 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.748 mph, sixth-fastest
2,715 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), ninth-most
499 Quality Passes, fifth-most

12 - Ryan Newman (No. 39 Haas Automation Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 88.3

2011 Rundown

One win, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 14.3
Led 17 races for 399 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook

One win, three top fives, three top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 21.0 in 16 races
Average Running Position of 21.0, 23rd-best
Driver Rating of 69.9, 23rd-best
782 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most

Glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase

A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Texas (in order of points):

DRIVER: Carl Edwards

CHASE POINTS: First, 2,273 points

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 99 Aflac Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Twice dropped a lap down but battled back and finished a surprising ninth.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 13

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2005, 2008-twice)

DRIVER: Tony Stewart

CHASE POINTS: Second, -8

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2

CAR: No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart-Haas Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Used a powerful pass of Jimmie Johnson in the closing laps to win his third race of the Chase.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 19

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2006)

DRIVER: Kevin Harvick

CHASE POINTS: Third, -21

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2

CAR: No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet

TEAM: Richard Childress Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Finished fourth, but failed to gain much ground on Edwards - Harvick sliced just five points off his deficit.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 17

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 3rd (2006)

DRIVER: Brad Keselowski

CHASE POINTS: Fourth, -27

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAR: No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was headed to a top-five finish until late contact caused him to spin and finish 17th.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 6

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 18 (2011)

DRIVER: Matt Kenseth

CHASE POINTS: Fifth, -36

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 3

CAR: No. 17 Crown Royal Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was running in top 10 when contact with Kyle Busch sent him to garage. Was later wrecked by Vickers and finished 31st.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 18

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2002, 2011)

DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson

CHASE POINTS: Sixth, -43

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1

CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was going to win the race until the final caution set up a three-lap shootout, which Johnson lost to Stewart.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 16

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2007)

DRIVER: Kyle Busch

CHASE POINTS: Seventh, -57

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Led a race-high 126 laps, but was in the incident with Kenseth and finished 27th.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 13

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 3rd (2008, 2010)

DRIVER: Kurt Busch

CHASE POINTS: Eighth, -58

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Was spun early but rallied to finish 14th.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 17

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2009)

DRIVER: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

CHASE POINTS: Ninth, -73

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 88 AMP Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Notched only his second top-10 of the Chase with a seventh-place finish.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 18

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2000)

DRIVER: Jeff Gordon

CHASE POINTS: 10th, -76

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Led 113 laps and finished third.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 21

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2009)

DRIVER: Denny Hamlin

CHASE POINTS: 11th, -80

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Didn't contend for the win at his home track, but finished fifth.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 12

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2010-twice)

DRIVER: Ryan Newman

CHASE POINTS: 12th, -89

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAR: No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart-Haas Racing

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK: Grabbed his third top-10 of the Chase with a 10th-place finish.

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 16

BEST TEXAS FINISH: 1st (2003)

Driver Handicaps: Texas
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday's AAA Texas 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 334-lap event.

Who's HOT at Texas
• April winner Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last nine starts.
• Denny Hamlin has two wins and an average finish of 4.8 in the last four races.
• Greg Biffle is the only driver to record top 10s in the last six races.
• Jimmie Johnson has posted an average finish of 6.3 in the last three races.
• Tony Stewart has the second-best driver rating in the past 13 races.
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers in laps led (347) in the seven races with the COT.

Keep an Eye On at Texas
• Kurt Busch (8.6), Brad Keselowski (11.2), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12.3) and Marcos Ambrose (12.9) each rank in the top 10 in average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.
• Kyle Busch is second in laps led (336) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.
• Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer each have finished seventh or better in three of their last four starts at Texas.
• Mark Martin has finished sixth or better in four of his last five starts at Texas.
• April pole winner David Ragan has recorded two top 10s in his last two Texas starts.
• Jeff Burton has one win and six top 10s in his 13 Texas starts with Richard Childress Racing.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Tony Stewart
Pete Pistone: Greg Biffle
Craig Moore: Matt Kenseth
Steve Blevins: Matt Kenseth
John Singler: Carl Edwards
Ricky Hamber: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Texas unless noted)

1. Carl Edwards: Three-time winner; Ended three race streak with finishes outside the top 10 with a third-place finish in the spring; Leads all drivers in laps led (347) in the seven races with the COT; Leads all drivers with a 5.2 average finish in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 739) that he last finished third with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

2. Tony Stewart: 13.0 average finish and two top 10s in five races with Stewart-Haas Racing; Won this event in 2006 with Joe Gibbs Racing; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (8.7) and third in laps led (330) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.

3. Kevin Harvick: Has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last 11 races; Has only led five laps in 17 starts; Fifth among all drivers in average finish (9.6) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 381) in the AAA Texas 500.

4. Brad Keselowski: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in six starts; Best finish came in the 2010 spring race in 14th; Sixth among all drivers in average finish (11.2) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 805) in the AAA Texas 500.

5. Matt Kenseth: Coming off second win in 18 starts; Win was eighth top 10 in last nine races; Leads all drivers with a 7.0 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Second among all drivers in average finish (8.1) and first in laps led (457) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.

6. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of this event in 2007; Finished eighth in April for 12th top 10 in 16 starts; Fifth in average finish (10.9) in the seven races with the COT; Seventh among all drivers in average finish (12.1) and fifth in laps led (266) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 681) that he drove to Victory Lane at Kansas Speedway last month.

7. Kyle Busch: 16.2 average finish in 13 starts; Best finish, of third, came in the 2008 and 2010 spring races; Fourth in laps led (286) in the seven races with the COT; Second in laps led (336) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 322) in the AAA Texas 500.

8. Kurt Busch: Winner of this event in 2009; Finished 10th in April for 11th top 10 in 17 starts; Third among all drivers in average finish (8.6) and fourth in laps led (311) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 758) that he scored the win with at Dover International Speedway last month.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 17.0 average finish in seven starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Coming off ninth top 10 in 18 starts; Won the 2000 race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; Ninth among all drivers in average finish (12.3) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 668) that he finished third with at Chicagoland Speedway in September.

10. Jeff Gordon: Win in 2009 spring races is last of nine top 10s in 21 starts; Led one lap and finished 23rd in the spring; Fifth in laps led (256) in the seven races with the COT.

11. Denny Hamlin: 15th-place finish in April snapped streak of two consecutive victories; Led 31 laps in this event last year; Second in average finish (7.6) in the seven races with the COT; Eighth among all drivers in average finish (12.2) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.

12. Ryan Newman: 14.4 average finish in five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Last of three top 10s came with Penske Racing in the 2008 spring race; Winner of the 2003 race; 10th-best average finish (12.0) in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 686) that he finished 10th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

13. Clint Bowyer: Coming off sixth top 10 (second) in 11 starts; Led 44 laps in April; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 371) that he finished seventh with at Chicagoland Speedway and Kansas Speedway in the Chase.

14. Greg Biffle: Has finished in the top 10 in last six races; Winner if the 2005 spring race; Third in average finish (10.6) and second in laps led (339) in the seven races with the COT; Fifth in laps led (91) in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car that he finished eighth with at Kansas Speedway last month after leading 23 laps from the pole.

15. Kasey Kahne: 17.0 average finish in two starts with Team Red Bull; Last of three top 10s in 14 starts came in the 2010 spring race; Winner of the 2006 spring race; Third-best average finish (6.0) in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

16. AJ Allmendinger: 22.1 average finish in seven starts; Only top 10 (10th) came in this event in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 710) that he finished 19th with at Texas Motor Speedway in the spring.

17. Juan Pablo Montoya: 23.8 average finish in nine starts; Last of two top 10s came in the 2009 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1119) that he finished 14th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

18. Marcos Ambrose: Coming off first top 10 in six starts; 18.7 average finish; 10th among all drivers in average finish (12.9) in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 735) that he finished sixth with at Texas Motor Speedway in the spring.

19. David Ragan: Won the pole and finished seventh in April; Finish was second consecutive top 10; 20.4 average finish in nine starts.

20. Mark Martin: Finished 36th in April after a crash; Finish was first outside the top 10 in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Fourth in average finish (10.7) in the seven races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 625) that he last finished 18th with at Pocono Raceway in June.

AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve got three races to go in NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship with Carl Edwards holding an 8-point lead over Tony Stewart. Martinsville became almost the type of wild card Talladega was with Brad Kieslowski (-27 points) and Matt Kenseth (-36) getting shuffled back due to poor finishes despite running well throughout.

The big winner in the entire deal last week was Stewart, who won his third race of the Chase, his only three wins of the entire season. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book made a massive adjustment on Stewart going from 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) following Talladega to now being even money to win the title. Edwards went from a minus-160 favorite to minus-120 (Bet $120 to win $100) following Stewart’s win.

The big winner in all of this may have been Edwards, who finished ninth at Martinsville despite it not being one of his favorite tracks. Not only does he have an 8-point lead, but the final three races of the season are all tracks that he does exceptionally well at.

Beginning with this week’s race at Texas, Edwards has three wins there in 13 starts and finished third in the first race held there in April. To close the season out, all Edwards will have to do is run well at Phoenix and Homestead, two tracks that he won at to close the year out last season.

After getting his third win of the Chase and getting nearer to Edwards in points, Stewart laid down the gauntlet.

"He'd better be worried," Stewart said of Edwards, "that's all I can say. He's not going to have an easy three weeks."

Stewart finished 12th in the first Texas race, but it might be wiser to look at what he’s done more recently on the 1.5-mile tracks, preferably the high banked sister tracks of Atlanta and Charlotte. While winning on the flatter Chicago track to start the Chase, Stewart also finished eighth at Charlotte and third at Atlanta in the last two months.

Edwards was able to better Stewart on average just a little on the two sister tracks getting a third and fifth-place finish respectively.

Edwards also has his Las Vegas win from early in the season to go off which runs similar to Texas. Ironically, Edwards got that win due to some back luck in the pits on Stewart’s final stop. Stewart had that race thoroughly dominated.

“Texas is one of our strong points," said Edwards. "I feel really good about going there, especially the way our Roush Fenway Fords run there. Texas is different than any track we go to just because of the atmosphere. It’s one of the biggest races of the year. The fans, sponsors and drivers all know it, there is a lot on the line and there is a lot of pride in winning a race there.”

The winner of the first Texas race this season in April was Matt Kenseth, who also won at Charlotte three weeks ago. Despite his chances of winning a second championship appearing to be gone, Kenseth should run as one of the favorites this week based on his recent and past history at Texas.

No one has been more consistent at Texas than Kenseth. Along with his two wins, he also has four runner-up finishes keeping in line with a long standing tradition of Jack Roush cars running well in the Lone Star State. A Roush driver won the first two races ever held there and since then has visited the winner’s circle with three other drivers.

Denny Hamlin swept both Texas races last season, but he hasn’t been a real contender in any 1.5-mile tracks this season. Jimmie Johnson got his only Texas win in 2007 and has had three runner-up finishes since, but hasn’t finished better than eighth in his last two starts. He'll be using his winning Kansas chassis this week. Look for Jeff Gordon to run well on the basis of his Atlanta win.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
3) #14 Tony Stewart (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)

NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
Covers.com

The gauntlet has been thrown down. The trash talking has started. Now it’s time to get it settled.

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series prepares for its final three races of the season the championship fight is closer than ever. There’s no better place for the next round than deep in the heart of Texas with Sunday’s running of the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Carl Edwards holds a slim eight-point lead over second-place Tony Stewart. Stewart scored an impressive come-from-behind win at Martinsville last week and issued the warning that Edwards “better be worried”, adding that “He’s not going to sleep for the next three weeks”.

This Sunday may just prove to be a wakeup call for Stewart. Edwards is this week’s favorite. He leads all drivers here with three wins and, with only one victory so far this season, is looking to answer Stewart’s trash talking Sunday.

“There could not be a better racetrack for us to be going to,” Edwards told reporters. “I feel like we made it through the first seven races of the Chase better than we expected. Now we just go these last three races and go for broke.”

Edwards won’t shy away from Stewart, in fact he seems eager to meet him head on Sunday.

“It would be perfect, fine with me if it came down to Tony and I the last lap,” Edwards said. “If we could separate ourselves from the rest of this pack, that would be wonderful.”

Stewart isn’t exactly a slouch here, however. He went to Victory Lane at Texas in the fall of 2006. That year, he had failed to make the Chase and was looking to make a statement. This season, he’s right in the thick of it and looking to make another statement: He’s in it to win it. His driver rating of 102.9 is the second best among the top 12 drivers and with three wins, all inside the Chase, he will be a formidable force Sunday.

Don’t count out Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has the highest driver rating among the top 12 and won here in the spring. He’s 36 points back and may have to depend on some misfortune from the front runners in order to get back into the title fray. But adding a third win to go with the two he has here certainly isn’t a stretch. He knows the only chance he has at the title is to win and he could easily accomplish that Sunday.

Head to head

Kevin Harvick vs. Brad Keselowski: In between Edwards, Stewart and Kenseth are Harvick and Keselowski. Both drivers are only 21 and 27 points out of the lead, respectively. While neither has won here and have records that aren’t exactly filled with highlights, they could surprise with a win. However, both will do whatever they can to finish inside the Top 10 at the end of the day and should stage a furious battle. Based on the last few races, look for Harvick to come out ahead in this matchup.

Jeff Gordon vs. Jimmie Johnson: Like Harvick and Keselowski, both Gordon and Johnson have the chops to go to Victory Lane Sunday. Both have a single win at Texas and want to finish as close to the front as possible. Gordon’s win came in 2009, Johnson in 2007. Johnson finished eighth in the spring, Gordon 23rd. Look for Johnson to best his teammate in this duel.

Long shot

Greg Biffle finished fourth in the Texas spring race and fifth in last year’s AAA Texas 500. He led the three most recent races and twice has led 200-plus laps. He’s outside the Chase and desperate for a win.

Bottom line

Fifteen of the 21 races have been won from a Top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006). Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002 - the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.

Favorites:

Carl Edwards (+700)
Tony Stewart (+700)
Matt Kenseth (+700)

Practice Notes - Texas
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Practice Notes - Texas

Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Lineup* Practice 2 Practice 3
1 Matt Kenseth 7/1 9th 3rd 14th 7th
Notes: Two-time winner with track best 10-year average finish of 6.9; using same winning car from April.

2 Carl Edwards 7/1 2nd 7th 1st 8th
Notes: Three-time winner, best 10-consecutive average laps in final practice; using Charlotte chassis.

3 Tony Stewart 7/1 3rd 5th 8th 9th
Notes: 2006 winner; last Texas top-five came five races ago; using Las Vegas-Atlanta-Kansas chassis.

4 Kevin Harvick 12/1 23th 21st 13th 18th
Notes: 12.9 average finish in 17 starts, good average speeds in practice; using brand new chassis.

5 Jimmie Johnson 7/1 21st 11th 12th 16th
Notes: 2007 winner and runner-up in three races since; using winning Kansas chassis this week.

6 Jeff Gordon 8/1 28th 23rd 3rd 14th
Notes: 2009 winner with no top-10s since (four starts); had a great early practice session Saturday.

7 Kasey Kahne 20/1 14th 9th 4th 1st
Notes: 2006 winner with only one top-five finish since; practiced like he was in one of the Roush cars.

8 Greg Biffle 15/1 1st 1st 2nd 10th
Notes: 2005 Texas winner; eighth or better in five of last six starts on track. Finished fourth in spring race.

9 Brad Keselowski 20/1 17th 8th 6th 28th
Notes: No top-10 finishes in six starts, but had fastest 10-consecutive lap average of day in practices.

10 Kurt Busch 20/1 10th 14th 11th 24th
Notes: 2009 winner, struggled in practice, but is using proven chassis from Pocono (3rd) and Dover (1st).

Note: This is the second race of the season at Texas Motor Speedway. Matt Kenseth led 169 of 334 laps to win the first race held April 9, 2011, beating Clint Bowyer by a whopping 8.315 seconds. Kenseth’s teammates, Biffle and Edwards, came in third and fourth respectively.