AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
For the second time this season the NASCAR Sprint Cup series visits Texas Motor Speedway, but things are a lot different right now from when they ran in April. In fact, it’s almost as if the series has been turned upside down.
Chevrolet had won the first four races on 1.5-mile tracks led by three wins from Jimmie Johnson -- including Texas -- and Kevin Harvick won the other (Las Vegas). Harvick was leading the most laps weekly on every type of track while Toyota and Ford were trying to play catch-up.
But then there was a major shift on these type of tracks in May when Denny Hamlin won the All-Star Race at Charlotte. Then his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Carl Edwards would win the following week in the Coca-Cola 600. Another JGR Toyota would win at Kentucky with Kyle Busch and then Hamlin kicked off the Chase with a win at Chicago. Four straight 1.5’s and four JGR Toyota’s took the checkers.
But then just when we thought we were going to see a JGR runaway, Ford came back strong with Joey Logano winning the last two on 1.5s. Logano dominated at Charlotte last month leading 227 laps for the win and then won a week later at Kansas, a race that was actually dominated by Matt Kenseth until Logano punted him late.
There are 11 races on 1.5 tracks scheduled in the season and we’ve already seen nine of them. Being good on these tracks really is the gateway to a championship. Two of the next three races to close out the season are on 1.5s -- this week at Texas and then the Championship Race at Homestead in three weeks.
If we follow the pattern of what has happened all season there really isn’t any reason to think Logano won’t win again. What makes it easier to choose him this week is that he has to win. After Kenseth paid him back last week at Martinsville, Logano is last with two races to go in the Eliminator Round. He’s got to make up 28-points which is the distance between he and fourth-place Harvick. Or he could just win this week and automatically qualify.
Beyond what Logano has done in the past two 1.5-mile races, he’s got a recent history in his favor at Texas as well. He won there last spring and has averaged a fifth-place finish in his past five starts there. Even when his team wasn’t going full throttle yet back in the April race, he still finished fourth.
The other reason to like Logano this week is that one of the strongest cars on 1.5s this season will likely be starting another driver. For his actions last week, Kenseth will likely be suspended by NASCAR. Kenseth led a race high 153 laps at Kansas and would have likely been Logano’s top competition this week. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Texas and is second-best all-time there with a 9.4 average finish.
So with Kenseth out, Logano’s chances of winning become even greater. Although you can never count out Johnson at Texas where he’s the track’s all-time leader with five wins and an 8.7 average finish. Johnson led a race-high 128 laps in April, but the team has really struggled since June with no wins after leading the series with four through May.
Harvick should be in the mix as well Sunday. He’s never won at Texas in 25 starts, but he also never won at Las Vegas or Dover before this season. He finished second to Johnson in the April race and led 96 laps.
The next tier of drivers to worry about come from JGR where Hamlin is a two-time winner, Edwards has won three times and Kyle Busch has also won. Hamlin would seem like the most logical contender since he’s finished fourth or better in the past four races on 1.5s.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #20 Joey Logano (7/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (9/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
Driver Handicaps: Texas
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Who's HOT at Texas
• Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last six races, including the last two.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five in four of the last five races, including a win in the 2014 spring race.
• Kevin Harvick, who led 96 laps in the spring, has finished second in the last two races.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in his last two starts and has combined to lead 164 laps in the last four races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished sixth or better in three of his last four races.
• Kyle Busch, who did not race in the spring, has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts, including a win in the 2013 spring race.
• Carl Edwards, who is a three-time winner at Texas, finished 10th in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in the spring.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Texas
• The top 10 in average finish at 1.5-mile tracks (nine races) this season are: Logano (5.1), Keselowski (7.4) Kurt Busch (8.0 - seven starts), Martin Truex Jr. (8.8), Kyle Busch (9.2 - five starts), Harvick (7.4), Ryan Newman (11.9), Earnhardt Jr. (10.9), Edwards (11.7) and Denny Hamlin (12.6).
• Hamlin, who swept Texas in 2010, has finished in the top 10 in his last five starts at 1.5-mile tracks this season, including a win to open the Chase at Chicagoland Speedway.
• Kurt Busch, who won the pole at Texas in the spring, has finished in the top 10 in his last six starts at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Jeff Gordon, the 2009 spring Texas winner, finished seventh in April for one of his five top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Erik Jones will replace the suspended Matt Kenseth this weekend. Jones won the XFINITY Series race at Texas in the Spring.
• Truex Jr. has led 268 laps at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Jamie McMurray has finished sixth or better in his last two starts at Texas.
• Kasey Kahne finished eighth in the spring at Texas for his third top 10 in seven track starts with Hendrick Motorsports.
• Ryan Blaney has posted a 10.5 average finish in his last two starts at 1.5-mile tracks.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Joey Logano
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Joey Logano
John Singler: Kyle Busch
Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Five Races at Texas
Joey Logano has finished in the top five in four of the last five races at Texas Motor Speedway, including a win in the 2014 spring race. Logano finished fourth and led 19 laps in the spring to add to his series leading average finish (5.1) and laps led (489) in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in four of his last five starts at Texas Motor Speedway, including a win in the 2013 spring race. Busch did not race in the spring at Texas due to an injury, but has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts at 1.5-mile tracks this season, including a win at Kentucky Speedway. He also led 121 laps in the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway.
Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last six races at Texas Motor Speedway, including the last two. Johnson leads all drivers with three wins at 1.5-mile tracks this season. He led five laps and finished third in the last race at a 1.5-mile track, Kansas Speedway.
Brad Keselowski has yet to win in 14 starts at Texas Motor Speedway, but has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races. Keselowski's combined 164 laps led in the last four races ranks second to Jimmie Johnson. This season, Keselowski ranks second to his teammate Joey Logano in average finish (7.4) in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks. He is the only driver this season that has finished in the top 10 in all nine races.
Denny Hamlin has posted an average finish of 10.3 in his last four starts at Texas Motor Speedway. Hamlin swept both races in 2010, but has only combined to lead 23 laps in eight starts since. However, Hamlin has been the best driver in the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks this season based on his average finish of 3.6. He also kicked off the Chase with a win at Chicagoland Speedway.
Greg Biffle is a two-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway with the last coming in the 2012 spring race. Since his last win, Biffle has finished in the top 10 three times. This season in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks, Biffle has posted a 16.4 average finish, including his 17th-place run in the spring at Texas.
Ryan Newman has posted a 14.3 average finish in his three Texas Motor Speedway starts with Richard Childress Racing. His best Texas finish with RCR came in the spring in 12th. Newman won at Texas back in 2003 with Team Penske. In 2015, Newman has finished in the top 10 five times and has led 16 laps in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Newman will return in the same car (chassis No. 526) that he finished fourth with at Chicagoland Speedway.
Martin Truex Jr. is coming off his first top 10 in three Texas Motor Speedway starts with Furniture Row Racing. The ninth-place run is one of six top 10s in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Kevin Harvick has finished second in his last two starts at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick led 96 laps in the spring to add to his season total of 464 laps led at 1.5-mile tracks the season. In 2015, Harvick has one win and four runner-up finishes in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 846) that he led 355 laps with en route to the win at Dover International Speedway.
Matt Kenseth is a two-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and has six top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks in 2015, but will not be racing this weekend due to a suspension from NASCAR. Erik Jones, who won the XFINITY Series race at Texas in the spring, will replace Kenseth at Texas.
Carl Edwards finished 10th in the spring at Texas Motor Speedway in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards posted nine top 10s, including three wins, in his previous 20 starts with Roush Fenway Racing. Edwards holds the second-best average finish (4.2) in the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to his win at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Kasey Kahne finished eighth in the spring at Texas Motor Speedway for his third top 10 in seven track starts with Hendrick Motorsports. The Texas finish is one of two top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Kyle Larson finished 25th in the spring to snap a streak of two consecutive top 10s at Texas Motor Speedway. Larson's last of two top 10s at a 1.5-mile track this season came at Chicagoland Speedway in September.
Jamie McMurray has posted an average finish of 5.5 in his last two starts at Texas Motor Speedway. McMurray's sixth-place finish at Texas in the spring is his only top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season.
Tony Stewart has posted a 15.0 average finish in his three Texas Motor Speedway starts with crew chief Chad Johnston. This season, Stewart has yet to finish inside the top 20 at a 1.5-mile track. He finished 24th in the spring at Texas.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished sixth or better in three of his last four starts at Texas Motor Speedway, including a third-place run in the spring. Earnhardt started the season with five straight top fives at 1.5-mile tracks, but has finished 12th or worse in the last four.
Clint Bowyer has posted a 25.0 average finish in his last two starts at Texas Motor Speedway with Michael Waltrip Racing. This season, Bowyer has yet to finish in the top 10 at a 1.5-mile track, posting a 21.9 average finish in the nine races.
Aric Almirola's only top 10 in nine starts at Texas Motor Speedway came in the 2013 spring race, in 13th. Almirola's two top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks this season have come in two of the last three races - Chicagoland and Charlotte.
AJ Allmendinger has posted a 19.3 average finish in three Texas Motor Speedway starts with JTG-Daugherty Racing. Allmendinger did start the season with two top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks, but has posted an average finish of 24.1 in the last seven races.
Paul Menard has recorded two top 10s in nine Texas Motor Speedway starts with Richard Childress Racing. He finished 41st in the spring at Texas due to an engine issue and has yet to score a top 10 this season in the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks. Menard will look to turn that statistic around the weekend by driving a new car (chassis No. 527) in the AAA Texas 500.