Aarons 499 News and Notes

Aaron's 499 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After being spoiled week after week with solid NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, the series took the week off much to the dismay of the rabid NASCAR nation. However, most fans will attest that they would certainly give a week away and wait two weeks in order to receive a gift wrapped order of Talladega Super Speedway racing.

This track is an absolute monster; it’s the biggest, meanest, most intimidating track on the planet. Because of that danger, the race takes on a completely different realm for fans, drivers, and teams alike that is equaled by no other racing facility. By simply defying physics, the laws of gravity, and knowing what the drastic consequences could be if just the slightest mistake in the draft is made makes Talladega the single most "edge of your seat" track for Fans.

Nobody wants to see wrecks, but people like to see others challenge the norm and take it to the limit. Human nature has always been intrigued with those unfazed by risks. The circus thrilled mankind as far back as ancient Rome with their lion tamers and then much later watched in terror as trapeze artists and tightrope walkers defied gravity. In more recent history, Evel Knievil’s daredevil jumps paved the way for pay-per-view as we know it today because people across the world wanted to pay just to hold their breath and see what happens.

Once again on Sunday, Talladega will not disappoint. It will be action packed and guaranteed to keep you entertained and on the edge of your seat. Not so coincidentally, that is the sort of claim and same guarantee that Barnum and Bailey or Ringling Brothers made when they rolled into a town for a show.

All eyes this week will be on the No. 88 car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr, the overwhelming fan favorite at the track, as he makes his first start at Talladega with Hendrick Motorsports and his 300th career Cup race start. Junior has raced in 16 Cup races at Talladega and has won 5 times times. During one stretch from 2001-2004, Junior won 5 of 7 Talladega races and in the process set a track record by winning 4 straight.

The feeling with most in the garages is that Junior is now ready to get back to that 2001-2004 level since he is now driving for the team that has the most recent success in restrictor plate races.

From 2001-2004, the DEI duo of Michael Waltrip and Junior won 11 restrictor plate races in 16 opportunities at Talladega and Daytona. During DEI’s last true year of dominance in plate races, a new era was evolving for Hendrick Motorsports which was reacquainting themselves with success in plate races. Jeff Gordon took two plate races in 2004 after going winless in 14 straight races. They had much success in the late nineties with 5 plate wins, including two Daytona 500 wins and then somehow it got away from them, or seemingly coincided with Ray Evernham leaving as Gordon’s crew chief and main source of data for the entire Hendrick team.

Whatever the case may be on why some teams have dominated over certain periods may always remain a mystery. Some teams adapted with certain required body templates sooner than others, but most say it’s about who’s the most clever at getting more horsepower to the engine. We say “clever” as another term to what others may call it, “Cheating”. Remember, it ain’t cheatin’ unless you get caught. I certainly believe it is a little of both and also believe it is a part of NASCAR that is, and always will remain, as part of the sport no matter what a raving steroid crazed media believes should deem okay.

As Junior embarks on his second plate race journey with Hendrick, his team will definitely be searching for edge to help break his 70 race winless streak. He’s run well this season and has been rewarded with sitting third place in points. Despite all the early good finishes, Junior wants to win at Talladega, the place his father dominated and won a track record 10 times. Should Junior win, it would make him the fourth driver in five consecutive Talladega races to win in a Hendrick car.

Jeff Gordon swept the two Talladega races last season, while in 2006, Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson won. Their plate record may not be as impressive as the DEI run, but from 2004-2007, Hendrick cars have won 9 of 16 plate races.

The cycle for both DEI and Hendrick is almost similar. Here we are one plate race into the 2008 season and Hendrick doesn’t claim it. In fact the craziest of occurrences happened in this years Daytona 500…..a Dodge won! Since 2001, only two Ford’s have won in plate races in 29 total events. Ryan Newman’s Dodge won at Daytona making a gap of 24 races between Dodge wins. I think you all get the point, but just to put the cherry on top, the last Dodge to win at Talladega was driven by Dave Marcis in 1976.

Clearly, Chevrolet has dominated the plate races, and most especially at Talladega. With all the statistical history we have placed before you, it may come as a surprise that the favorite to win this week drive Toyota’s. Even though neither Tony Stewart nor Kyle Busch won the Daytona 500, they dominated and were clearly the two best cars on the track with the slight edge given to Busch who not only had a horsepower edge, but also came up with the best handling car on the track, a combination hard to beat when both areas are clicking at the same time.

Tony Stewart has the distinction of tying an all-time NASCAR record while racing at Talladega. Stewart has finished second at Talladega six times without winning. That ties him with Alabaman Bobby Allison at Martinsville and Mark Martin at Pocono. Talladega remains one of four current Cup tracks that Stewart has never won on. He’s gone winless in 18 starts at Talladega which three more than Darlington, four more than California, and eight more than Las Vegas.

We’re going to look for Stewart to take his proven solid strategy of getting near the front at the end of the race, and look for him to take his new Toyota to the winners circle for the first time. It would be a first for Stewart on the season, in his new car, and ever at Talladega. It would also allow him to join his two Gibbs teammates, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, as winners on the season. The majority of Stewart’s wins come in the later junction of the season, but this may be a race Stewart would like to take care of after so many close calls. It is also likely the “Bridesmaid” title doesn’t suit Stewart too well.

The driver we also want to look at creates a great ‘odds to win” opportunity with your favorite sports book. Kurt Busch pushed himself to a second place finish in the Daytona 500 while propelling his teammate to the win. He hasn’t come close to that kind of run since and will be looking forward to getting the teams’ plate program out there again. In the last 10 years of racing at Talladega, no one has a better average finish than Kurt Busch with a 10.0 average in 14 starts. He has almost as many third place finishes, four, as Stewart has seconds. In Busch’s last seven starts there, he hasn’t finished worse than eighth which says a lot considering how volatile the track is and also that he never drove a Chevy in any of those starts.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

#20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
#2 Kurt Busch (20/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (6/1)
#29 Kevin Harvick (15/1)

Danica finally sprays the Champagne

I just wanted to offer my congratulations to Danica Patrick for finally getting that gigantic monkey off her back. I don't want to place her unfairly in the category of sporting greats that finally achieved the goal they were reaching for during their career, however, Danica deserves much credit for hanging with it. Having the responsibility of not only taking criticism from a portion of male fans, but also from her colleagues she drives with should make her triumph that much more special.

She has brought much attention to herself with the scantily clad photos and tantrums on the track that vindicate all the naysayers that she's nothing more than Anna Kournikova in a firesuit. She's also had the weight of the entire Indy Car Series on her shoulders as they continually use her as the main marketing tool for the series, a series that has fallen light years behind NASCAR among North American auto racing fans. So it took her 50 races, big Deal! She did it, and now everything is set up perfectly for her, and the series as the INDY 500 rolls around next month. I, for one, will be rooting for her.

From an odds aspect, don’t expect to get 15 to 1 on her anymore as was the case last week when she won in Japan. She'll likely be in the 9 to 1 category, slightly lower than her teammate Marco Andretti, which means that the Big 4 of Tony Kanaan, Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon, and Dan Wheldon will all have their raised weekly because Danica has now joined the party and can be considered a threat to win the Indy Car Series race at Kansas this week will come with huge fanfare and publicity because of Danica.

Improving the Talladega Twos
Racingone.com

With six NASCAR Sprint Cup Series second place finishes in his carer at Talladega Superspeedway Tony Stewart is looking for his first win this weekend in Sunday's Aaron's 499.

Although he wants to make a trip to victory lane at the 2.66-mile superspeedway, Stewart says he isn't frustrated by his half-dozen runner-up finishes.

"No, not at all," Stewart said. "I mean, Talladega is a track where you can’t do anything on your own. You have to strictly rely on what everybody else around you is doing. It’s still not real racing when somebody else has to go with you and somebody else can dictate how you run. If you don’t ever have anybody go with you all day you never have a shot at winning."

"But if you have guys go with you, you have a shot. We haven’t won there, but look at how many second-place finishes we’ve had. Anytime you can finish in the top-two is like a win at Talladega, especially when you’ve done it as consistently as we have."

Stewart's overall record at Talladega is impressive with eight top fives and 11 top 10s in 18 career Sprint Cup starts.

He looks to add to those impressive numbers in Sunday's second restrictor plate race of the season.

“If you’re smart, after 10 years, surely you’ll learn something," Stewart said about plate racing. "We’re not sending a space shuttle to the moon here, so it’s not like it was something that was out of our reach as far as trying to be able to learn. You hope that with 10 years of experience, you’d at least learn enough to keep yourself competitive."

Sunday's race will mark the second appearance of the new NASCAR Sprint Cup car at Talladega, after the machine made its debut on a plate track last October.

Stewart believes this trip will be very similar to last fall's visit.

“It’s going to be the same this year at Talladega as it was last year at Talladega for the most part," he said. "From a driver’s perspective, you don’t have to relearn anything. From the crew side, you have to relearn everything. You’ve got a whole different package. We’ve got bump rubbers now. It’s a total learning process again, which is why we had a two-day test at Talladega last fall."

In the year's first restrictor plate competition during "Speedweeks" at Daytona, Stewart and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch were particularly strong.

Stewart is confident the Toyota tandem will again be stought this weekend at Talladega.

“I think it’s been great," Stewart said of his new teammate. "It’s probably been better amongst the three teams than it’s ever been. With Kyle coming on board we now have a debrief session after the last practice on Saturday or the final session. We all get together – all three drivers, all three crew chiefs and all three engineers from each team all get together."

"We drivers talk about how our cars drove, the crew chiefs talk about what changes we made to compensate for the balance, and together with the engineers, we talk about what we think we might be able to do to make the cars better for the race. I think from the communication side, he’s brought a lot to the table and helped us elevate our program."

Wood to Drive No. 21 at Dega
RacingOne.com

HARRISBURG, N.C. - Jon Wood will make his 2008 Sprint Cup Series debut in the Wood Brothers Racing no. 21 Honey Buns Ford Fusion in the Aaron’s 499 at the famed Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday, April 27.

Since the race was not a scheduled event for Bill Elliott, the team felt that Wood was a logical choice given his experience in the Nationwide and Craftsman Truck Series on superspeedways.

Wood has a busy schedule this week as he is also entered to drive the no. 21 Air Force Ford F-150 in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 250 at the Kansas Speedway on April 26th. The team is making every effort to make sure Wood participates in both events. An alternative driver is being considered to practice, qualify and possibly race the truck if arrangements cannot be made to get Wood to the Kansas Speedway.

To start the week, Wood Brothers Racing and Jon Wood will be conducting a two day test at Iowa Speedway April 22 and 23.

Crew Chief Mike Smith agrees that this week is an excellent opportunity for the team to gel and work together for the first time this year.

"With Jon's experience level on superspeedways in other series, I'm very comfortable with him getting in the car this weekend," he said. "The test in Iowa will also help. It will give us a chance to work together as crew chief and driver, which we've never done before. I'm really looking forward to it."

Who's Hot / Who's Not In Sprint Cup : Talladega Edition

Talladega Superspeedway is one of the more intimidating tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule. It requires skill; it requires patience; and most often, it requires a certain amount of luck. For a few of the drivers, the 2.66-mile track is a welcomed site; but for most, Talladega is a dreaded wild card event where anything can and will happen.

But despite the track’s unpredictable nature, some drivers have achieved consistent success down in Alabama. As the Who’s Hot / Who’s Not column returns from an off week, we take a look at not only the hottest and coldest drivers in the series this year, but how the Top 15 in driver points have fared at Talladega throughout their careers.

Who’s Hot

Jeff Burton: Points leader extended his Top 10 streak to six races at Phoenix. Burton’s worst finish is still a remarkable 13th in what’s amounted to the best start of his career to date.

Carl Edwards: Nearly went four for eight in the win column this year if not for a pit road problem at Phoenix. And if it weren’t for a blown engine while leading at Atlanta, Edwards would have just two finishes out of the Top 10 in all of 2008.

Jimmie Johnson: Some slump that was. With his win at Phoenix, Johnson has now finished in the Top 5 in his last three events, moving him from tenth to fourth in driver points.

Clint Bowyer: His second place run two weeks ago was Bowyer’s best finish of the year, but the Kansan has also built a streak of five consecutive Top 10s around it after just one Top 20 in the first three races.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is quietly catching fire. In his last four races, the No. 11 has finished outside of the Top 5 just once (6th – Bristol) while winning at Martinsville and streaking into 7th in the standings.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has already earned one pole this season, at Texas; come Talladega, he’ll be a threat to take his second top spot of 2008.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior is the prohibitive favorite this week at Talladega, and is having an excellent year to date — he’s collected Top 12s in all but one race.

Who’s Not

Reed Sorenson: Since opening eyes at Daytona, Sorenson has just one Top 20 since and has fallen to 31st in points. Now, rumors surfaced his sponsor may be leaving at the end of this season; those were quickly denied amidst a flurry of reactive press releases from Target’s higher ups. But if Sorenson doesn’t pick it up, the whispers of his imminent departure won’t die down anytime soon.

J.J. Yeley: It’s been another disappointing year for Yeley, who has finished on the lead lap just once in 2008. In eight starts, his No. 96 Hall of Fame Racing Toyota has yet to finish better than 25th.

Dave Blaney: The No. 22 is trying to crack the Top 35 in owner points, but is struggling — Blaney’s recorded just one Top 25 finish all season.

Regan Smith: The DEI driver is sitting on the bubble in 35th in owner points. In his eight starts this year, Smith is averaging a 31.2 finish, hardly the rookie run everyone anticipated from Mark Martin’s protege.

How The Top 15 In Points Have Fared At Talladega

1) Jeff Burton: 28 Starts, 2 Top 5s, 10 Top 10s. Finished better than 25th once in the last five races.

2) Kyle Busch: 6 Starts, 0 Top 10s. crashed out of both races in 2007.

3) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 16 starts, 5 Wins, 7 Top 5s, 9 Top 10s. Has not won in his last six starts at Talladega (as part of a winless streak overall that dates to May, 2006 at Richmond).

4) Jimmie Johnson: 12 starts, 1 Win, 4 Top 5s, 5 Top 10s; finished 2nd in both races here in 2007.

5) Kevin Harvick: 14 Starts, 3 Top 5s, 7 Top 10s, no DNF’s … an accomplishment in itself at this facility.

6) Denny Hamlin: 4 Starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, and an average finish of 17th.

7) Tony Stewart: 18 Starts, 8 Top 5s, 11 Top 10s. 4 Top 10s in his last 6 races in Alabama.

8) Clint Bowyer: 4 Starts, 0 Top 5s, 0 Top 10s. Finished better than 35th just once here in his career.

9) Carl Edwards: 7 Starts, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10s. All of Edwards’ Top 10 finishes came in the last three races held at the track.

10) Greg Biffle: 10 Starts, 0 Top 5s, 0 Top 10s. 4 straight DNF’s at ‘Dega.

11) Kasey Kahne: 8 Starts, 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, and an average finish of 20.4. Kahne has never won a restrictor plate race in his career.

12) Ryan Newman: 12 Starts, 3 Top 5s, 5 Top 10s. The brainiac scored Top 10s in both Talladega races in 2007, and is 1-for-1 in plate races in 2008 (Daytona).

13) Jeff Gordon: 30 Starts, 6 Wins, 13 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s. Won both races last year at this track.

14) Martin Truex, Jr.: 6 Starts, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10s, and a mediocre average finish of 23.7 at the 2.66-mile superspeedway.

15) Matt Kenseth: 16 Starts, 3 Top 5s, 6 Top 10s. He’s finished the last seven races held at Talladega.

frontstretch.com

Driver Highlights - Talladega
VegasInsider.com

Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Talladega Superspeedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last six races at Talladega. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) 20/1

# Six top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.0
# Series-best Average Running Position of 11.3
# Driver Rating of 95.0, second-best
# Series-high 36 “Closer” positions improved (positions improved in the last 10% of races)
# 2,253 Green Flag Passes, second-most
# Series-high 890 (78.1%) Laps in the Top 15
# Series-high 1,794 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet) 5/1

# Five wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 14.3
# Average Running Position of 18.5, 14th-best
# Driver Rating of 81.2, 11th-best
# 29 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 602 (52.8%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
# 1,194 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) 7/1

# Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.9
# Average Running Position of 14.3, sixth-best
# Series-high Driver Rating of 98.5
# 725 (63.6%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota) 12/1

# One top five
# Average finish of 17.0
# Average Running Position of 14.2, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 89.8, sixth-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 192.086, fourth-fastest
# 415 (54.9%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-best percentage
# 852 Quality Passes (average of 213 per race), eighth-best average

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) 8/1

# One win, four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 17.8
# Average Running Position of 14.9, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 89.8, sixth-best
# 1,629 Green Flag Passes, 14th-best
# 699 (61.3%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
# 1,380 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford) 25/1

# Three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 16.1
# Average Running Position of 13.3, third-best
# Driver Rating of 88.9, eighth-best
# 23 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 10th-most
# 756 (66.3%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
# 1,480 Quality Passes, third-most

Jamie McMurray (No. 26 Crown Royal Ford) 30/1

# Three top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 17.8
# Average Running Position of 14.8, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 92.6, fourth-best
# 1,838 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# 729 (63.9%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
# 1,287 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota) 6/1

# Eight top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.6
# Average Running Position of 12.6, second-best
# Driver Rating of 93.1, third-best
# 22 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 13th-best
# 2,141 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
# 724 (63.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
# 1,252 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota) 85/1

# One win, two top fives, three top 10s
# Average finish of 21.3
# Average Running Position of 14.0, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 91.5, fifth-best
# 22 “Closer” positions gained, fourth-most
# 637 (67.2%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
# 1,109 Quality Passes for an average of 221.8 per race, fifth-best average

Odds and Ends - Talladega
VegasInsider.com

Talladega Superspeedway

History

# Construction began on Talladega Superspeedway on May 23, 1968.
# The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on Sept. 14, 1969.
# The second race was moved from July to October in 1997.

Notebook

# There have been 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega Superspeedway since the track opened in 1969; two a year every year except the inaugural season.
# Bobby Isaac won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole at Talladega in September 1969. Isaac went on to win the first three poles there. 33 different drivers have won poles at Talladega.
# Bill Elliott leads all drivers with eight poles at Talladega.
# Jeremy Mayfield, Joe Nemechek and Elliott Sadler lead all active drivers with three poles each at Talladega.
# Richard Brickhouse won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega.
# 35 different drivers have posted victories at Talladega led by Dale Earnhardt (10); 18 drivers have won more than once.
# Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six victories at Talladega.
# Rick Hendrick has won 10 races at Talladega, more than any other car owner.
# 31 of 77 races at Talladega have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole; 21 have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
# The furthest back in the field that a Talladega race winner started was 36th by Jeff Gordon in 2000.
# All of the NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Talladega have been scheduled for 188 laps, 500 miles.
# Bobby Hamilton won the caution-free 2001 spring Talladega race with an average speed of 184.008 mph. His average speed for 188 laps was just 0.853 mph slower than the Coors Light Pole speed for that race set by Stacy Compton.
# Mark Martin’s pace in the 1997 spring race set an all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup record for the fastest race ever run. He won the caution-free race with an average speed of 188.354 mph and covered the 500-mile distance in two hours, 39 minutes and 18 seconds.
# Dale Earnhardt Jr., finished 42nd and 14th in his first two races at Talladega. In his 14 races there since, he finished eighth or better nine times, including five victories and two second-place finishes. His four consecutive victories (October 2001 through April 2003) are the most ever by a driver at Talladega. Buddy Baker (three, May 1975 through May 1976) is the only other driver to win more than two consecutive races there. The Alabama Gang
# There have been 96 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Alabama.
# 60 NASCAR drivers (all-time) have their home state recorded as Alabama – including Bobby Allison who is tied for third on the all-time winners list with 84.
# There have been seven race winners from Alabama in NASCAR’s three national series:

Talladega Superspeedway Data

Race #: 9 of 36 (4-27-08)
Track Size: 2.66 miles

# Banking/Corners: 33 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
# Frontstretch: 4,300 feet
# Backstretch: 4,000 feet

Driver Rating at Talladega

Jeff Gordon 98.5
Kurt Busch 95.0
Tony Stewart 93.1
Jamie McMurray 92.6
Brian Vickers 91.5
Denny Hamlin 89.8
Jimmie Johnson 89.8
Matt Kenseth 88.9
Ryan Newman 83.0
Elliott Sadler 81.4

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at Talladega.

Qualifying/Race Data

2007 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (192.069 mph, 49.857 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jeff Gordon, 154.167 mph, 4-29-07)
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph, 44.998 seconds, 4-30-87)
Track race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph, 5-10-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 34-36 laps, based on fuel mileage

Aaron’s 499 PreQ

After the week off drivers and fans are ready to get back to racing at the always exciting Talladega Superspeedway. There is one driver that is certain to be happy to get back to racing – Jimmie Johnson. Johnson was off to a bit off a slow start to the 2008 season posting just one top 10 in the first five races. He has since picked it up dramatically recording three straight top 5 finishes including a win the lat time out at Phoenix. Johnson has a win and a pair of runner-up finishes in the last four starts at Talladega and along with his recent hot streak ranks as the No. 1 driver heading into the race this Sunday. Look for the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet to be productive for the fourth consecutive race.

A driver that has been moving in the opposite direction than Johnson has been Kevin Harvick. Still, that should not be much of a concern as Harvick has still been running well in the last few races although he does not have a top 10 run in the last 3 races. He has still managed to finish each race this season in the top 20 and runs well at Talladega averaging a 13th place finish in 14 career starts with seven top 10s. Happy has yet to make it to victory lane this season and it would not be much of a surprise if he got that win in the Aaron’s 499.

A ‘sleeper’ driver to keep your eye on for this race is David Gilliland. In six career restrictor plate starts Gilliland has posted four finishes in the top 15 with an average finish of 15th place. He did have a rough time the last time out at Talladega finishing in the 27th position but in this race last season Gilliland posted a season best 4th place. Yates Racing has always had a solid restrictor plate program and while Gilliland may not contend for the win he could get a solid top 10. When looking to add that final driver to your lineup jump on the #38 Ford bandwagon.

Even though DEI has the history of running well on the restrictor plate tracks Paul Menard has not had a great time at Talladega in his young career. In three starts at the track Menard has failed to finish in the top 30 with an average finish of 38th place. He does run a little better at Daytona but in five career restrictor plate starts he has yet to record a top 20. Menard is a decent driver when the series is on the other track types but he is a liability for your team on the restrictor plate tracks. It would be a wise move to avoid him for this race.

Kyle Busch has been having a great season in 2008 sitting second in the point standings with a victory to his name (Atlanta) in his first year with his new Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota #18 team. Busch’s success is all that more sweeter as the driver that replaced him at Hendrick Motorsports, Dale Earnhardt Jr., is behind him by one spot in the standings without a trip to victory lane this season. Busch, however, could see both of those things come to an end this weekend – and part of it could be because of his own poor luck at Talladega. In six career starts at the track Busch has finished in the top 30 just once with an average finish of 32nd place. Busch has been off to a strong start but this could be a race in which he struggles.

profantasysports.com

Sprint Cup hits Talladega

Jimmie Johnson finally broke through in Phoenix with his first win of the year, and he'll be looking to make it two in a row on April 27 when he hits the track in the Aaron's 499.

Johnson had just enough fuel to hold off Clint Bowyer and take the checkered flag in the Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix International Raceway on April 12, which gave the struggling Hendrick Motorsports team their first victory of the 2008 season. It was Johnson's fourth Top-10 result this season, and it puts him fourth in the driver standings.

Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, and Mark Martin rounded out the Top 5 in Phoenix, while Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr., Greg Biffle, and Kyle Busch made up the rest of the Top 10. Jeff Gordon had to settle for a 13th-place finish, while Tony Stewart was 14th, and Kevin Harvick was 19th. Kurt Busch (23rd), Kasey Kahne (36th), and Matt Kenseth (38th) were farther behind, while Ryan Newman didn?t finish the race.

Burton's fourth-place result kept him atop the driver standings as the series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the Aaron's 499. Burton has three Top-5 and six Top-10 results so far this season, and he sits 80 points ahead of second-place Kyle Busch in the standings. Dale Jr. and Johnson are 86 and 99 points, respectively, behind Burton.

Harvick fell to fifth in the standings with his middling result at Phoenix, while Hamlin, Stewart, Bowyer, Edwards, Biffle, Kahne, and Newman are the rest of the current Top 12. Gordon moved up one spot in the standings to 13th, while Truex Jr. is now 14th, and Kenseth fell to 15th. Kurt Busch also dropped a position on the list to now sit in 16th.

Johnson has earned a series win at Talladega in the past - he visited victory lane in the Aaron's 499 back in 2006. Teammates Gordon and Earnhardt Jr., though, have had the most past success on that track. Gordon won both Talladega events in 2007, and he also picked up wins there in 2005, 2004, 2000, and 1996. Earnhardt Jr. won the EA Sports 500 in 2004, and he won four straight Talladega events from 2001 through 2003.

Hardly any other active drivers have earned Cup series wins at Talladega in their careers. Brian Vickers won the UAW-Ford 500 there in 2006, and Michael Waltrip took the EA Sports 500 in 2003. Bobby Labonte took the checkered flag in the DieHard 500 back in 1998, and Mark Martin grabbed his two Talladega wins back in 1995 and 1997.

After racing at the Alabama track the drivers of the Sprint Cup Series will head to Richmond International Raceway for the Crown Royal Presents the Dan Lowry 400. That race will take place on May 3; the rest of that month's schedule will include the Dodge Challenger 500, the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race, and then the Coca-Cola 600.

Aaron's 499 Preview

Start Time: 2:21 p.m. (et)

Site: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Alabama

Track: 2.66-mile high-banked tri-oval

Laps: 188

Miles: 500

Capacity:

Total purse: $6,022,630 (2007 figure)

Payouts: 1st Place - $349,711; 2nd - $257,536; 3rd - $212,483 (2007 figures)

Year: 39th

On TV: FOX

Announcers: Mike Joy, Darrell Waltrip, Larry McReynolds

On Radio: MRN/Sirius Satellite

Race record: 188.511 m.p.h. (Elliott Sadler, 2006)

Qualifying record: 212.809 m.p.h. (Bill Elliott, 1987)

2007 Finish
Defending champion: Jeff Gordon

Runner up: Jimmie Johnson

Pole winner: Jeff Gordon (192.069 m.p.h.)

Top 10:

1. Jeff Gordon (Start: 1)

2. Jimmie Johnson (8)

3. Kurt Busch (26)

4. David Gilliland (2)

5. Jamie McMurray (25)

6. Kevin Harvick (41)

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr (36)

8. David Stremme (20)

9. Ryan Newman (28)

10. Martin Truex Jr (37)

Average speed: 154.167 m.p.h.

Time of race: 3 hours, 18 minutes, 46 seconds

Margin of victory: under caution

Caution flags: 8 for 26 laps

Lead changes: 42 among 20 drivers

Past winners
2007 Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 154.167 m.p.h.

2006 Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 142.880 m.p.h.

2005 Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 146.904 m.p.h.

2004 Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 129.396 m.p.h.

2003 Dale Earnhardt Jr, Chevrolet, 144.625 m.p.h.

2002 Dale Earnhardt Jr, Chevrolet, 159.022 m.p.h.

2001 Bobby Hamilton, Chevrolet, 184.003 m.p.h.

2000 Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 161.157 m.p.h.

1999 Dale Earnhardt, Chevrolet, 163.395 m.p.h.

1998 Bobby Labonte, Pontiac, 142.428 m.p.h.

1997 Mark Martin, Ford, 188.354 m.p.h. (race record)

1996 Sterling Marlin, Chevrolet, 149.999 m.p.h.

1995 Mark Martin, Ford, 178.902 m.p.h.

1994 Dale Earnhardt, Chevrolet, 157.478 m.p.h.

1993 Ernie Irvan, Chevrolet, 155.412 m.p.h.

1992 Davey Allison, Ford, 167.609 m.p.h.

1991 Harry Gant, Oldsmobile, 165.620 m.p.h.

1990 Dale Earnhardt, Chevrolet, 159.571 m.p.h.

1989 Davey Allison, Ford, 155.869 m.p.h.

1988 Phil Parsons, Oldsmobile, 156.547 m.p.h.

1987 Davey Allison, Ford, 154.228 m.p.h.

1986 Bobby Allison, Buick, 157.698 m.p.h.

1985 Bill Elliott, Ford, 186.228 m.p.h.

1984 Cale Yarborough, Chevrolet, 172.998 m.p.h.

1983 Richard Petty, Pontiac, 153.936 m.p.h.

1982 Darrell Waltrip, Buick, 156.697 m.p.h.

1981 Bobby Allison, Buick, 149.376 m.p.h.

1980 Buddy Baker, Oldsmobile, 170.481 m.p.h.

1979 Bobby Allison, Ford, 154.770 m.p.h.

1978 Cale Yarborough, Oldsmobile, 159.699 m.p.h.

1977 Darrell Waltrip, Chevrolet, 164.877 m.p.h.

1976 Buddy Baker, Ford, 169.887 m.p.h.

1975 Buddy Baker, Ford, 144.948 m.p.h.

1974 David Pearson, Mercury, 130.220 m.p.h.

1973 David Pearson, Mercury, 131.956 m.p.h.

1972 David Pearson, Mercury, 134.400 m.p.h.

1971 Donnie Allison, Mercury, 147.419 m.p.h.

1970 Pete Hamilton, Plymouth, 152.321 m.p.h.

Last race
Race: Subway Fresh Fit 500 (April 12)

Site: Phoenix International Raceway, Phoenix Arizona

Miles: 312

Laps: 312

Finish line order: Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin

Time of Race: 3 hours, 1 minute, 14 seconds

Average speed: 103.292 m.p.h.

Margin of victory: 7.002 seconds

Caution flags: 8 for 42 laps

Lead changes: 10 among 4 drivers

Lap leaders: Newman 1-30; Johnson 31-42; Newman 43-49; Johnson 50-123;Newman 1-30; Johnson 31-42; Newman 43-49; Johnson 50-123;Earnhardt Jr. 124-126; Johnson 127-149; Earnhardt 150-163; Martin164-201; Earnhardt 202-271; Martin 272-301; Johnson 302-312.

Entry list
#00 Michael McDowell (Phoenix, AZ) Toyota/TBA

#1 Martin Truex Jr (Mayetta, NJ) Chevrolet/Bass Pro Shops Tracker

#01 Regan Smith (Cato, NY) Chevrolet/Dale Earnhardt Inc

#2 Kurt Busch (Las Vegas, NV) Dodge/Miller Lite

#5 Casey Mears (Bakersfield, CA) Chevrolet/Kellogg's/CARQUEST

#6 David Ragan (Kannapolis, NC) Ford/AAA Travel

#7 Robby Gordon (Cerritos, CA) Dodge/Jim Beam

#07 Clint Bowyer (Emporia, KS) Chevrolet/DirecTV

#8 Aric Almirola (Tampa, FL) Chevrolet/U.S. Army

#9 Kasey Kahne (Enumclaw, WA) Dodge/Budweiser

#09 Sterling Marlin (Columbia, TN) Chevrolet/Miccosukee Resort

#10 Patrick Carpentier (Quebec, Canada) Dodge/LifeLock

#11 Denny Hamlin (Chesterfield, VA) Toyota/FedEx Freight

#12 Ryan Newman (South Bend, IN) Dodge/Alltel

#15 Paul Menard (Eau Claire, WI) Chevrolet/Menards/Turtle Wax

#16 Greg Biffle (Vancouver, WA) Ford/3M/Red Cross

#17 Matt Kenseth (Cambridge, WI) Ford/DeWalt

#18 Kyle Busch (Las Vegas, NV) Toyota/M&Ms

#19 Elliott Sadler (Emporia, VA) Dodge/Best Buy

#20 Tony Stewart (Rushville, IN) Toyota/Home Depot

#21 John Wood (Stuart, VA) Ford/Little Debbie

#22 Dave Blaney (Hartford, OH) Toyota/Caterpillar

#24 * Jeff Gordon (Vallejo, CA) Chevrolet/Dupont/Pepsi

#26 Jamie McMurray (Joplin, MO) Ford/Crown Royal

#28 Travis Kvapil (Janesville, WI) Ford/Yates Racing

#29 Kevin Harvick (Bakersfield, CA) Chevrolet/Shell-Pennzoil

#31 Jeff Burton (South Boston, VA) Chevrolet/AT&T Mobility

#34 John Andretti (Indianapolis, IN) Dodge/TBA

#38 David Gilliland (Torrance, CA) Ford/FreeCreditReport.com

#40 Dario Franchitti (Edinburgh, Scotland) Dodge/Tums Quik Pak

#41 Reed Sorenson (Peachtree City, GA) Dodge/Polaroid

#42 Juan Pablo Montoya (Bogota, Columbia) Dodge/Wrigley's Big Red

#43 Bobby Labonte (Corpus Christi, TX) Dodge/Cheerios/Betty Crocker

#44 David Reutimann (Zephyrhills, FL) Toyota/UPS

#45 Kyle Petty (Randelman, NC) Dodge/Marathon Motor Oil/Wells

#48 Jimmie Johnson (El Cajon, CA) Chevrolet/Lowe's

#55 Michael Waltrip (Owensboro, KY) Toyota/NAPA Auto Parts

#66 Scott Riggs (Bahama, NC) Chevrolet/State Water Heaters

#70 Ken Schrader (Fenton. MO) Chevrolet/Hunt Brother Pizza

#77 Sam Hornish Jr (Defiance, OH) Dodge/Mobil 1

#78 Joe Nemechek (Lakeland, FL) Chevrolet/Furniture Row

#83 Brian Vickers (Thomasville, NC) Toyota/Red Bull

#84 A.J. Allmendinger Los Gatos, CA) Toyota/Red Bull

#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (Kannapolis, NC) Chevrolet/National Guard/AMP

#96 J.J. Yeley (Phoenix, AZ) Toyota/DLP HDTV

#99 Carl Edwards (Columbia, MO) Ford/Office Depot

Notes

Jeff Gordon became the first four-time winner of this race last year,when he raced to victory. Gordon, who became the first pole sitter to capturethis race since Bobby Labonte in 1998, reclaimed the lead on lap 185 and heldon to edge Jimmie Johnson under caution. Gordon led 10 times for a total of 71laps, as he claimed his 77th career Sprint Cup title. Gordon's win total nowstands at 81, although he is winless in 2008.In his 30 career starts at Talladega (Sprint and Nationwide), Gordon has sixwins, 13 top-five's and 16 top-10's. Gordon has led 24 of those races for atotal of 801 laps.Jimmie Johnson led for only three laps, but it was good enough to claim his21st career Sprint Cup Series title in 2006. Johnson, who has now improved to34 victories, overtook Brian Vickers and Tony Stewart on the final lap to takethe checkered flag by the slimmest of margins (0.120 of a second). Pole SitterElliott Sadler led for 23 laps, but finished 16th. Ironically, Vickersreturned the favor in the second Talladega race in 2006, as he passed Johnsonand Dale Earnhardt Jr on the closing lap for the win.David Pearson is the only driver in history to win three consecutive Aaron's499's (1972-74). The race history at Talladega features many multiplechampions. Gordon is a four-time winner, while Pearson, Bobby Allison, DaveyAllison, Buddy Baker and Dale Earnhardt are three-time champions. Mark Martin,Darrell Waltrip and Cale Yarborough won this race twice.Chevrolet has dominated this race in recent years winning the last nineAaron's 499. In fact, Chevy has won 16 of the last 17 races at Talladega. DaleJarrett's Ford win in the fall of 2005 is the only blemish in that streak.Dale Earnhardt Jr and his father had great success at Talladega. Dale Sr won10 times at the track, while Dale Jr's victory total stands at five.Earnhardt's start this week will be his 300th career Sprint Cup event.The Sprint Cup Series moves to Richmond International Raceway on May 3th forthe Crown Royal 400, as Jimmie Johnson defends his title in the 10th race onthe schedule.

Aaron's 499 Driver Rating

Jeff Gordon leads the driver ratings headed into Talladega, having led an astounding 300 laps in the last six races at the famed Superspeedway. Tony Stewart is in a distant second during that same span with only 124 laps led. Expect Gordon and teammate Jimmie Johnson to remain mid-pack until the final laps of the event. That strategy gave Gordon the win in the UAW-Ford 500 last October. "We didn’t want to lay back during the fall race, but there were a lot of unknowns with the new car at the track," said Gordon. "Our qualifying position played the biggest part in determining our strategy. Starting so far back, we thought it would be best to play it safe and work our way into contention near the end of the race. As uneventful as it was in back, I was concerned every single moment of every single lap. I was concerned that we would wreck amongst ourselves. I was wondering if we were going to lose the draft."

Kurt Busch has recorded an unbelievable six consecutive top 10 finishes at Talladega Superspeedway. His 95 driver rating puts him 2nd on the list, closely behind Gordon. Busch needs a quality showing, having dropped to 16th in the Sprint Cup standings. Busch has never won at Talladega, but this may be his year. “I guess the law of averages comes into play and they have to include us among the favorites to win Sunday’s race," said Busch. “Our runner-up finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 probably adds some credibility to the way we’re viewed entering this weekend."

Even though Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ranks 11th in this week’s driver ratings, the racing gods might help lift the monkey off his back at one of his favorite places to drive. "I love running at Talladega," Earnhardt said. "I have such a great fan base there. Those people have been so good to us and so supportive. You go into each race there feeling like you owe it to them to put the car out front. They want to get on their feet, cheer and see that car take the lead." Don’t be surprised if Junior’s 70-race winless streak ends this weekend.

profantasysports.com

Earnhardt has a great shot at Talladega

The most popular NASCAR Sprint Cup driver has five victories (out of 17 career Cup wins) at Talladega, where Earnhardt loyalty always runs deep among the race's 160,000 spectators.

For the Junior Nation, this is the race at just the right time.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., still seeking his first NASCAR Cup win in nearly two years, returns Sunday to what is arguably his best track, Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway.

The most popular NASCAR Sprint Cup driver has five victories (out of 17 career Cup wins) at Talladega, where Earnhardt loyalty always runs deep among the race's 160,000 spectators. His late father, seven-time champion Dale Earnhardt, also won a record 10 times at Talladega, NASCAR's longest track at 2.66 miles.

"The fans have been really great to us there," Junior told reporters this week. "They're ready for a win."

Excitement about Earnhardt's prospects jumped this year after his much-publicized departure from the team his father started, Dale Earnhardt Inc., to the powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports.

He turned up the buzz by winning the first race of the year in February, the non-points Budweiser Shootout exhibition race at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway.

Through the first eight races, Earnhardt has finished in the top five three times, in the top 10 six times, and he's third in the overall Cup standings.

Earnhardt, in fact, is higher in points so far than the other three Hendrick drivers, including reigning Cup champion Jimmie Johnson (who's fourth) and four-time champ Jeff Gordon (13th).

Yet Earnhardt's No. 88 Chevrolet still hasn't reached Victory Lane. If there's one track where the drought should end, wouldn't it be Talladega, where Earnhardt, 33, also will be making his 300th career Cup start?

"You could say that," Earnhardt said. "We're going to have a good chance this weekend, and I'm motivated by that. But I've felt that way all year, really."

A two-year winless streak is "definitely a stat you are aware of and reminded of," he said, but added: "It's not a whole lot of pressure. I still drive for a good team."

Danica Patrick, who finally got her first IndyCar Series win in her 50th attempt last week, sympathized with Earnhardt's dry spell. "Dale Jr. is still that same driver that everybody loves and cheers for," she said. "He'll get it. It's something that happens to a lot of drivers."

But Earnhardt gently told his fans that if he doesn't win Sunday, there's always the next race.

"They have to keep reminding themselves to be patient for that win to come, because they've wanted the opportunity for their driver to be running well each week, and they have that now," he said. "I feel like a win is around the corner."

Despite Earnhardt's record at Talladega, the high-banked track is always treacherous and unpredictable -- owing to its status as one of the two speedways (Daytona is the other) where NASCAR mandates the use of carburetor restrictor plates.

The plates are a safety measure to keep the cars at about 200 mph, but they also keep the field's 43 cars bunched in freight train-like packs.

That means a driver must be adept at working with others to "draft" nose-to-tail in order to pass cars, and Earnhardt's drafting skill -- learned in large part from his father -- is among the best.

"Talladega is not a race track where you can do it all on your own," said two-time Cup champion Tony Stewart, who has finished second at Talladega six times but never won. "You've got to have help."

Earnhardt's help this year will include new teammates Gordon and Johnson, who have won three of the last four races at Talladega.

But they'll also be some of his toughest competition in the final laps. Gordon is a six-time winner at Talladega, and he won both the spring and fall races there last year.

And with "plate races" comes another threat: Crashes that can take out several cars at once because they run so tightly together.

Some drivers will intentionally hang back until the end in hope of avoiding such a melee -- but not Earnhardt.

"I want to be up toward the front anyway to stay out of any accident that might be happening or could happen behind me," he said.

Besides, "you've got a lot of fans in the stands," Earnhardt said. "They want to see that car take the lead."

latimes.com

Fantasy Picks 'N' Pans: Aaron's 499
Cami Starr and Mike Neff

The Cup stars head to Northern Alabama this weekend to the longest and fastest track on the schedule, the Talladega Superspeedway. It’s the first time that the series comes back to a plate track, having run at Talladega last Fall in the new CoT configuration. That car, along with a newly paved track, resulted in a very long, single file run last year; but expect to see a more competitive race this time around now that the drivers have a better idea of how the car will react in the packs that result from plate racing. Aerodynamics become the most paramount factor this weekend; handling has almost no bearing at all in this weekend’s race, as it all comes down to making the car move efficiently through the air and developing as much horsepower as possible with the restricted engines.

Of course, that leads to close quarters, big pack racing, and the threat of the big wreck — a crapshoot that could lead to disaster for your fantasy team. Read on to see what the experts have to say in order for you to navigate the waters of tricky Talladega …

Cami’s Race Rewind:

Talladega has long been associated with the name Earnhardt, and while it was Jeff Gordon in Victory Lane last year, Dale Earnhardt, Sr. was still part of the storyline. Gordon’s sixth win at Talladega broke his tie with The Intimidator on the All-Time Win List on what would have been the legend’s 56th birthday. Gordon turned his spot from the pole into his second straight victory, holding off teammate Jimmie Johnson in a green/white/checkered finish after a multi-car wreck broke out in turn two. But while the victory was a restrictor plate masterpiece, it was something that obviously didn’t sit well with many of the Earnhardt fans in the stands, who showered the track with debris and boos as Gordon took his Victory Lap.

The Hendrick duo was followed by Kurt Busch, David Gilliland, and Jamie McMurray to round out the Top 5 finishers in the event.

Mike’s Keys to the Race:

Talladega is a lot like your first few months away at college. It is all about the body. You don’t care about personality, you don’t care about intelligence — you only care about how well that body fits. Talladega is the fastest track on the circuit, and was just repaved last year. Those two factors make it all about getting the car through the air as smoothly and effortlessly as possible; handling doesn’t matter at all for this weekend’s race. So, look for the teams that spend huge dollars on plate programs and who know how to build a restrictor plate car to be effective. Hendrick Motorsports has owned the track in recent history, and they now have the best plate driver in the business on their roster in Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Expect to see him, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson all near the front during this race as a result. Richard Childress also invests a large amount of money and effort into their plate program, so don’t be surprised to see Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, and possibly even Clint Bowyer running well, too. Lastly, don’t discount Kurt Busch this weekend. He is on the team with the Daytona 500 winner, and has been outstanding at Talladega in recent years.

Mike’s Picks:

Crank ‘Em Up:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. could be the mayor of Talladega at the drop of a hat. For whatever reason, ‘Dega has adopted the Earnhardts as their own, and that crowd Karma seems to be able to push Junior even further than his car is capable. Add to that the fact his new team is Hendrick Motorsports — who has notched the last four wins at the 2.66 mile course — and you know that Earnhardt is going to be very close to the front all day on Sunday. The veteran has the fifth best average finish at the track among active drivers, and won five of the seven races from the Fall of 2001 through the Fall of 2004. Where’d he finish in the other two? Second place. With that type of track record, expect Junior to end his winless streak this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson has not made too many friends over the years at Talladega. Whether his fault or not, he has been accused of starting many a melee in his Cup career on the fastest track the series visits. However, that has not prevented him from winning there, and running top two in three of the last four races. Seeing as Hendrick was first, second, and sixth last fall, you can anticipate another strong showing from Johnson this weekend.

Sit ‘Em Down:

Clint Bowyer does not have the greatest of luck on restrictor plate tracks. He’s ended up on his roof, he’s been spun out, and he’s blown up. He’s ticked off his teammates, and he’s just plain made bad guesses on which lane would move. But whatever the case may be, Bowyer does not normally run well at Talladega. Four races with finishes of 40th, 35th, 35th, and 11th leave him with a paltry average finish of just 30.3; clearly, that’s not something to write home about. Bowyer could turn the corner and have a great weekend, but it is best to let him sit on the sidelines until he develops a little more consistent finishing patterns at Talladega.

Elliott Sadler has logged more air time at Talladega than Tony Hawk; he’s flipped on the backstretch, and across the start/finish line. But outside of those headlines, Sadler’s runs haven’t been much to talk about. He has two Top 10s in 17 career races at the big Alabama track; and with the luck the No. 19 has been having this year, don’t look for it to turn around much this coming weekend. Sadler will hopefully get off of the snide sometime soon, as GEM seems to be turning the corner a little with their cars; but, this weekend is probably not a good time to expect him to.

Roll The Dice:

Casey Mears has not done much of anything at Talladega over his career. His average finish is 24th, with three Top 10 finishes and five of 30th or worse in ten career starts. However, one of those Top 10s was a sixth place finish last Fall in Talladega, and he also ran very strongly at Daytona before he was taken out at the end of the event. Mears could certainly bust out this weekend, or he could have another typical ‘Dega finish … but that’s why we call it rolling the dice.

Cami’s Picks:

Crank ‘Em Up:

Needless to say, Jeff Gordon has had his fair share of bad luck and struggles this year. But even with three finishes of 35th or worse, he is just eight points outside of the Top 12 as the series heads back to Talladega, a track that should erase some of those woes. Last year, Gordon swept both events, once in the “old” car and once in the CoT. That proved the style of car doesn’t matter when it comes to his success on restrictor plate tracks. In fact, in Gordon’s last 20 Talladega starts, he has five wins, tying him for first among active drivers; and Gordon has an average finish of 13.3. Look for Gordon to use this weekend’s race as a springboard to getting back on track and back into Chase contention.

In the season opener, it was Kurt Busch who pushed teammate Ryan Newman to the victory; but this week, Busch has got to hope that the roles are reversed as he goes for his eighth Top 10 in a row at Talladega. In 14 career starts at the Alabama superspeedway, Busch has an amazing average finish of 10th; but even with all that success, the ’04 Cup champ is still looking for his first victory there. Given his record and the strength of the Penske cars at Daytona, Busch is a strong play for this coming weekend.

Carl Edwards may be look good at tracks like Texas; but when it comes to restrictor plates, he’s still got a lot to learn.

Sit ‘Em Down:

Sometimes, I step out and make some pretty bold picks in this category, and this one might have a few people scratching their heads; but I stand by the choice of not putting Carl Edwards on your team this weekend. Yes, he leads the series with three victories this year… but those have all come on the 1.5-milers. Plate racing isn’t something that Edwards has found a knack for yet in his career, either. In seven career starts at Talladega, he has finished 32nd or worse three times, and was 14th here in the Fall (CoT) race. Normally a good play most times, this is the one time to let Edwards cool off and ride the pine.

Rounding out this week’s Sit ‘Em picks is another Roush Fenway driver, Greg Biffle. While he did manage to eek out a tenth place finish at Daytona this year, Biffle is a big 0-for-10 when it comes to scoring a Top 10 at Talladega. In fact, he’s only scored a Top 15 on two occasions, which explains his poor average finish of only 26th. Biffle has been on top of his game for most of the 2008 season, but look for this weekend to be a big stumbling block.

Roll the Dice:

When it comes to picking race favorites, the name David Gilliland usually isn’t one that rolls quickly off the tongue. But when it comes to plate races, you have to give this young driver a look. He was fourth in this race last year, and by far has had his most Cup success on the larger tracks. That’s not to say he can’t run well other places; in fact, he scored his first Top 10 of the year at Bristol, and has posted back-to-back 15th place finishes at Texas and Phoenix. So, if you need a pick for a solid run on Sunday that isn’t going to break the bank, take a second look at adding Gilliland to your roster.

frontstretch.com

Aaron's 499 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

After a rare week off NASCAR heads down to Talladega Super Speedway, stock car racing's most competitive track, this Sunday at 2 p.m. televised by FOX, for the Aaron's 499 as Jeff Gordon tries to win his third straight at Talladega, having swept both Sprint Cup races last year.

If you are a fan of drafting this is the place for you. Talladega is a 2.66-mile tri-oval course that features both north and south turns banked at 33 degrees while the grandstands tri-oval is banked 16.5 degrees. There is something about Talladega, a restrictor plate track, that screams excitement. Just look at the records held by this track for the fastest 500-mile stock car race (188.354 mph, May 10, 1997, winner: Mark Martin), the most lead changes in a NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series event (75, May 6, 1984) and the most leaders in a NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series event (26, twice, July 27, 1986 & April 22, 2001).

Who will win the Aaron's 499?

In case you missed it we nailed the winner of the Subway 500 two weeks ago with Jimmie Johnson cashing a 6/1 ticket. If anyone could use a victory right now it is Johnson's teammate, No. 24 Jeff Gordon, who has experienced, by his standards, a rough spring. The good news for Gordon is that Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports have owned Talladega, notching wins 16 of the past 17 races while HMS drivers have won six of the past eight races. But I'm not totally sold that team HMS has overcome all that ills after their win at PIR two weeks ago. They gambled on fuel and won but that might not be the case again this weekend.

If you are looking for another driver who might take the checkered flag do not overlook Joe Gibbs Racing's Smoke in the No. 20 car. Tony Stewart is one of the most successful drivers to never have won at Talladega. His average finish of 12.8 is a bit deceiving, brought higher by three finishes of 28th place or greater due to three crashes. Aside from the crashes Stewart boasts eight top-five finishes and 11 top-10 finishes at Talladega. Stewart came in second place in 2001 and 2005.

That said, while it seems pretty obvious to most fans of NASCAR that Chevrolet will be the car to beat once again, if they lose it could be to Toyota, who has made huge leaps in CoT and could be the team to beat this weekend.

Pick! Tony Stewart (6/1)

Aaron's 499 Solid Gold Picks

Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Aaron's 499 but here are a few picks I like to cash under the lights on Saturday. Over the wall we just missed sweeping the board two weeks ago as Harvick had a comfortable lead over Gordon for the entire race until Harvick was forced to pit with a few laps left and stalled his car twice, which enabled Gordon to finish higher than Harvick. With my first loss in more than four weeks, my NASCAR match-ups record stands at 6-6 as I fall just below the money mark down -1.75 units on the season.

Long Odds Value Pick

In my last column I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised to see Clint Bowyer win at PIR, and win he almost did. Bowyer has been amazingly consistent and we saw that again as he rallied from the back of the grid to finish the race in second place. The final lap had us almost rooting for Johnson to run out of gas because 16/1 is a much better payday than 6/1. Looking ahead to this week it's hard to overlook Hendrick Motorsports as well as Chevrolet's dominance at Talladega. However, three of HMS' four drivers do not fall into a long odds value play so we are going to default to Casey Mears. While everyone is looking at the No. 88 car to win in Alabama, for this play we like No. 5 Carquest/Kellogs car. Mears has had a modicum of success at Talladega with three top-10 finishes. On super speedway tracks Mears has notched one top-five and five top-10 finishes.

Pick! No. 5, Casey Mears, 30/1

Square Tire Pick

Matt Kenseth (-1.05) vs. Kurt Busch (-1.25)

Meager pickings in the matchups section this week as most favorites are legitimate picks to cash this weekend. I think this is due in part to how unpredictable the Sprint Cup has been this year. I don't like many of the listed dogs but here is a small bark for a few bucks. Both Busch and Kenseth have done well at super speedways and Talladega in general.

Kenseth in the No. 17 car has two wins, eight top-fives and 18 top-10 finishes on super speedways of which he has recorded three top-fives and six top-10 wins. Busch in the No. 2 ride has never won on a super speedway but has recorded 15 top-fives and 21-top-10s of which he has six top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes at Talladega. The drivers have similar records but given the myriad of problems with the Dodge cars in recent races I think you have to give the edge to Kenseth and his Ford car to win this match-up.

Pick! No. 17, Kenseth (-1.05)

*Aaron's 499 Odds
Sunday, Apr 27th (2.00pm EST)
Talladega Super Speedway, AL

A.J. Allmendinger 150/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 50/1
Brian Vickers 80/1
Carl Edwards 16/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 22/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
Dario Franchitti 200/1
Dave Blaney 150/1
David Gilliland 50/1
David Ragan 50/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 11/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 35/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jeff Gordon 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joe Nemechek 200/1
John Andretti 200/1
Jon Wood 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Kasey Kahne 28/1
Ken Schrader 150/1
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Kurt Busch 16/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Martin Truex Jr. 28/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 150/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 125/1
Ryan Newman 22/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Sterling Marlin 150/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.

docsports.com

Earnhardt is the favorite despite nearly two-year drought

The popular driver who hasn't won since May 2006 probably gets the odds because of his five victories at Talledega and his Hendrick team's success on the track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. may be the most popular driver competing in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series but he hasn't been a winning bet for gamblers who've been looking for him to cross the finish line first in recent races.

Although Earnhardt -- listed as a 4-1 favorite to win Sunday's Aaron 499 at Talledega (Ala.) Superspeedway -- has competed well this season, he's still looking for his first victory driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

In eight starts, Earnhardt has three finishes in the top five but with no wins this season. In fact, Earnhardt has not won a NASCAR Cup race since May 2006.

But oddsmakers figure that this will be the week that Earnhardt will end his victory drought because of Hendrick's past success at Talledega and Earnhardt's winning history driving on the 2.66-mile tri-oval.

Hendrick drivers have won six of the last eight events held at Talledega and Earnhardt won four consecutive races on the track from 2001 to 2003. Of Earnhardt's 17 career wins, five were at Talledega.

Currently, Earnhardt sits in third place in the Sprint Cup standings, 86 points behind leader Jeff Burton. But the odds on Burton winning this weekend's Aaron 499 are 25-1, according to Sportsbook.com.

There are nine drivers with odds listed between Earnhardt and Burton.

Jeff Gordon, who has won three of the last four events at Talledega, is listed at 5-1, followed by Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart at 6-1, and Kyle Busch at 7-1. Denny Hamlin comes in next at 12-1, followed by Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer at 20-1.

NASCAR add: In updated odds on this season's Sprint Cup championship, bodoglife.com has pegged Johnson as the favorite at 9-2, followed by Earnhardt and Edwards at 5-1. Kyle Busch is next at 11-2 with Stewart at 7-1 and Gordon at 15-2.

latimes.com