Aaron's 499 News and Notes

Aaron’s 499 PreQ

With the first bad week for Jeff Gordon teammate Jimmie Johnson made a move toward the top spot in the point standings. Johnson could make another jump this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway as he once again rates as the No. 1 driver on our PreQ forecast. Johnson has struggled on the restrictor plate tracks averaging a 20th place finish in the last five starts but most of those poor runs were at Daytona – where he has three straight finishes outside the top 20. At Talladega Johnson is averaging a 6th place finish in his last four starts. Johnson could be the point’s leader after the Aaron’s 499.

After a rough start to his career on the restrictor plate tracks Clint Bowyer has been stellar in recent years. Bowyer could not pay his way into a top 20 finish in his first season and a half in the Sprint Cup series. Since that time he has posted four straight top 10 finishes on the restrictor plate tracks including a career best 4th place finish at Daytona earlier this season. Bowyer has yet to get to victory lane this season and could be a dark horse candidate for his first career restrictor plate win.

Another driver that could surprise this weekend is Roush Fenway Racing’s David Ragan. Since the season opening Daytona 500, in which he finished in 6th place, Ragan has failed to record a top 10 finish with just top finishes in the top 20. He is in desperate need of a good day and Talladega could be just what the doctor ordered. Ragan posted a pair of top 5 finishes at Talladega last season with four top 6 finishes in his last five restrictor plate starts. Look for the #6 UPS Ford to be a contender this weekend.

Kyle Busch is the defending race champion but he has not run that well in his career at Talladega. The win last season is his lone top 10 finish in eight starts with just top other top 20 finishes to his credit. He is averaging a 26th place finish in his career at the track. Busch struggled in the Daytona 500 placing in the 41st position which could be a sign of things to come although he can differently win each and every week. Still, Busch is a bit of a crapshoot on the restrictor plate track and we suggest looking elsewhere for a top tier driver.

This has not been one of Greg Biffle’s favorite tracks in his career either. In 12 career starts he has posted zero top 10 finishes with just three finishes in the top 20. In those 12 starts he is averaging just a 25th place finish. Biffle ha not run particularly well on the restrictor plate tracks since the move to the COT car with just one top 10 finish (Daytona) while averaging a 23rd place finish in five starts. With many other drivers having better luck at the track we would avoid Biffle altogether.

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Kyle Busch is the defending race champion but he has not run that well in his career at Talladega. The win last season is his lone top 10 finish in eight starts with just top other top 20 finishes to his credit. He is averaging a 26th place finish in his career at the track. Busch struggled in the Daytona 500 placing in the 41st position which could be a sign of things to come although he can differently win each and every week.

I am not sure if they actually watched the Daytona 500 as Kyle Busch led 88 laps and was in complete domination of this race, until Earnhardt jr had a rush to the head and caused a multi car pile up which took Busch out.

Hey Kosar, welcome to the site.

They also spelled definitely wrong 😉

Aaron's 499 Preview
By Micah Roberts

After eight races on the 2009 NASCAR Cup Series campaign we have seen just about every type of track there is on the circuit. We have seen the Superspeedway of Daytona, the long wide horsepower two-mile track of Fontana, high banked 1.5 mile tracks, short tracks, and intermediate mile track like Phoenix last week. We should be well versed and ready to go for this Sunday’s outing at Talladega Superspeedway, the biggest, baddest track in the world.

Actually, we have only one restrictor plate race to go off of this week and the way things have gone this season, this race is wide open. It used to be that Talladega was an easy call. All you had to do was handicap all the Chevrolets and throw out the rest of the field because only Chevy’s won in restrictor plate races. Coming into last season, Chevy’s had won 17 of 18 Talladega races with the combined efforts of Hendrick Motorsports, DEI, and RCR. A Chevy has dominated the last decade of plate racing, not just at Talladega, but at Daytona as well.

Well, things have changed, and they’ve changed fast. Last season we saw a Dodge win once and Toyota ’s win three times in the four plate races. This season we saw a Roush Ford win the Daytona 500 for the first time ever making it five straight plate races that a Chevy hasn’t won. Things have always gone in cycles in racing, but the one consistent milestone all could always count on was a Chevy being the best in plate races.

When attempting to dissect this week’s race, you might have to begin by taking a serious look at the Roush Ford’s. They have traditionally done poorly in plate races but excelled in most of the other tracks which has been the key to Jack Roush winning two Cup titles. This season it is kind of reversed. Most of the Roush Ford’s were excellent at Daytona opposed to how awful they have been everywhere else. Is it possible Roush threw all his engine marbles into one basket this season in order to win the greatest race of the season? So far, the record indicates, “YES, he did”.

Matt Kenseth’s win the Daytona 500 was completely unexpected, but all five of the Roush drivers performed very well in that race despite what the results show. David Ragan, Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle, and Kenseth all had a great plate package for the race and it’s likely that the momentum will continue this week.

Roush had better hope that their recent plate success continues because their in the beginning of a stretch of tracks where they haven’t done traditionally well in recent years. If you throw out Kurt Busch’s Roush wins, were looking at only Greg Biffle as a Roush winner in the last seven years on the four tracks of Phoenix, Talladega, Richmond, and Darlington. If they are in fact as good as Daytona showed amid all their recent failures on their traditionally successful tracks, they had better step up this week for the sake of competing for the Championship. Thus far, only two of the five Roush drivers would make the Chase including Matt Kenseth with his two wins who is only nine points ahead of Mark Martin for the 12th and final position.

The top car this week will be driven by Kyle Busch in his Toyota who won at Daytona and Talladega last season. Just to refresh memories, Kyle had by far the best car at this year’s Daytona 500. He was en route to his first ever Daytona 500 victory until Dale Earnhardt Jr. got a little frisky as a lapped car and wrecked all the leaders. Kyle led the most laps on that February day and wrecking him was likely the only way anyone was going to be able to stop him.

Tony Stewart won the fall Talladega race last season driving a Gibbs Toyota. He currently sits fourth in points driving his own Chevy in what is truly a remarkable story. After Daytona where Stewart led laps and competed well with an eighth place finish, we have to throw him into the mix. He knows how to play the game, stay up front, or wait in the back for trouble to elude him.

Stewart is one of the best restrictor plate drivers on the circuit and now that we have some data on his new car and team, we can count him as a bona-fide contender this week unlike our skepticism at Daytona. Should Stewart win this weeks 40th anniversary race at Talladega, he would become the first driver/owner to win a race since Ricky Rudd at Martinsville in 1998. That race is forever memorable not only because of the owner facet, but because Rudd had the flu and was confined to his car in the sweltering heat of Virginia in the late summer.

Jeff Gordon had one of his worst finishes of the season at Daytona with a 13th, despite winning one of the Gatorade Duels a week prior. He is the currently the points leader by 85 points and all indications are that Gordon will be one of the drivers to beat this week regardless of Chevy’s recent droughts in restrictor plate wins columns. Gordon is NASCAR’s all-time leader in wins at restrictor plate tracks. He passed the late Dale Earnhardt in 2007 with a Talladega win, much to the disapproval of Alabama who proceeded to heave every can of something available onto the track while Gordon was doing his burnout.

That Talladega win for Gordon in 2007 also passed Dale Earnhardt Jr for active career leader in track wins with 6. This week, the Junior nation will be in full force again with a blanket of AMP Green spread across the facility. The Junior fans were spoiled so fast and so quickly with DEI and Junior’s quick rise to dominance a few years ago that the Talladega expectations are almost too lofty to attempt and conquer. Kyle Busch may have had some validity in comments regarding Junior and the weight of the NASCAR world on his shoulders being overwhelming.

Gordon’s teammate Jimmie Johnson has one career win at Talladega along with a pair of runner up finishes. Although Johnson hasn’t looked good in the last two seasons of plate racing, you know that when it comes time to shine he’ll be there helping any one of his teammates down the stretch making his chances maximized as the last freight train of drivers coming storming through on the last lap.

Kurt Busch has to be the best plate racer with no wins on Superspeedways. He currently leads all drivers in average finish position at Talladega since he’s been driving with at 12th. We saw him push Ryan Newman to Dodge victory in last seasons Daytona 500 when he could have easily went his own way and attempt the win. He won’t have many supporters helping him on the track, but when he’s there towards the end of the race, alliances will be made regardless of what manufacturer he drives.

I’ve been touting him for a few years to win a plate race to no avail, let’s not stop now and press the bet.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) # 2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (9/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (4/1)

Aaron's 499 Preview

I’ve been touting him for a few years to win a plate race to no avail, let’s not stop now and press the bet.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) # 2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (9/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (4/1)

I have been saying the same thing for years about Kurt Busch and have already made a nice size bet on him at 12/1 for this race.

Nothing for me on this race but the fantasy stuff I am obligated to pick. too unpredictable at these plate tracks for me to get my money down.

Aaron's 499 Driver Rating

Talladega Superspeedway is known for its unpredictability. Nowhere is that more evident than among the Roush Fenway Racing stable of drivers. The three Roush Fenway Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup mainstays are Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth. Their teammates – David Ragan and Jamie McMurray – have yet to earn a Chase berth. Yet, roles are reversed at Talladega. Statistically, Ragan and McMurray rank well above their more prolific teammates in practically every key Loop Data statistical category. Ragan, who posted two top-five finishes at Talladega last season, has a Driver Rating of 91.4 (fourth-best), an Average Running Position of 17.0 (11th) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 54.1% (11th). McMurray, who has three top-five finishes in the past eight races, has a Driver Rating of 87.6 (sixth), an Average Running Position of 16.2 (seventh) and a Laps in the Top 15 of 56.7% (ninth). Then there’s the uncharacteristically average stats belonging to Edwards, Biffle and Kenseth – all of whom were involved in the same accident the last time the series visited Talladega. Kenseth’s numbers are the best of the three. Finishing outside the top 25 in each of the last three races, he has a Driver Rating of 84.3 and an Average Running Position of 16.2. Edwards and Biffle consistently struggle at Talladega. In fact, it is Edwards’ worst track in terms of Driver Rating and Biffle’s second worst (second only to Watkins Glen). At Talladega, Edwards has a Driver Rating of 68.6, an Average Running Position of 24.2 and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 35.6%. Biffle has a Driver Rating of 66.7, an Average Running Position of 24.1 and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 27.0%. Roush Fenway has three drivers in the top 10 in Driver Rating. Only one other team has three – Hendrick Motorsports. Jeff Gordon (third with 92.3), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (seventh with 86.8) and Jimmie Johnson (10th with 83.9) are in the top 10 of Talladega Driver Rating. The third member of Hendrick – Mark Martin – has a surprisingly low Talladega Driver Rating of 60.4, which is 40th-best.

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Labonte gets new crew chief for No. 96 Ford

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -Bobby Labonte will have a new crew chief starting this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway.

Ben Leslie is taking over the No. 96 team from Todd Parrott. Yates Racing made the change to strengthen the organization, which is adjusting to Labonte's addition this season.

Labonte came to the team in mid-January when Yates aligned with Hall of Fame Racing. The team had to move quickly to prepare for the start of the season, and Labonte's first time in the car did not come until the first Daytona 500 practice.

Labonte is 28th in points. He has a season-best finish of fifth at Las Vegas in March, but has been hampered by an engine problem at Atlanta and an accident at Texas.

Smith still thinks he won last year at Talladega
April 22, 2009

Regan Smith still believes he won the last NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega Superspeedway.

Smith, who drove last year for Dale Earnhardt Inc., will return to the Alabama track for this weekend's Cup race, driving the No. 78 Chevrolet for Furniture Row Racing.

``It's hard not to think about that last lap,'' said Smith, who led the field to the checkered flag in last October's Talladega race only to see the victory taken away when NASCAR ruled that he illegally passed Tony Stewart on the final lap. The penalty relegated last year's top Cup rookie to an 18th-place finish.

``I was being blocked and it was either passing Stewart or crashing the field,'' explained Smith. ``I felt I made the proper move and won the race.''

Though it would have been his first career Cup win, Smith harbors no ill feelings toward Talladega. In fact, the 25-year-old driver said he enjoys Talladega's 2.66-mile oval and looks forward to the three- and four-wide racing.

``Talladega brings out all of the emotions,'' Smith said. ``I've always liked racing there. It's 500 miles of excitement and mind games, an incredible rush.''

KEEPING IT REAL: The folks at Red Bull Racing aren't thinking about a championship just yet. They'd rather focus on adding more wins to the team's historic finish at the Chinese Grand Prix.

Sebastian Vettel won Sunday's race at a rain-soaked Shanghai International Circuit ahead of teammate Mark Webber to earn the Austrian team its maiden victory and a 1-2 finish. Red Bull is now second in the constructors' standings after three races, trailing Brawn GP by 16.5 points.

Brawn GP also leads the drivers' championship through Jenson Button, who finished third at Shanghai after taking the opening two races. Vettel is third with 10 points, 11 behind Button. Each victory is worth 10 points.

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner warned about letting unrealistic expectations build following the impressive start.

``It is too early to say whether it is a championship challenge, but we are firmly on the scoreboard,'' Horner told Autosport.com. ``We know we've got a good package, we know we have got good drivers in the car, we know we have got more to come - but the fight back from the big teams is not to be underestimated.''

It was Vettel's second career win and first since switching over to Red Bull from sister team Toro Rosso, with whom the German driver won last year's Italian GP. It was also Webber's best ever finish in his eighth season in F1.

``The pressure is now on to repeat it. Your expectations change, so a result like this really puts us on the map and people take us seriously now,'' Horner said. ``This result is the culmination of a lot of hard work and we now have to build from here.''

Red Bull can enhance its championship chances at Sunday's Bahrain GP.

``We are still obviously at a very early stage in the championship,'' Horner said. ``We have now got clarity on the regulations, so we now have got to build on this result and do our best to repeat it as often as possible.''

GOING LONG: NASCAR star Carl Edwards will be part of a team of drivers that will put a 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid to the ultimate fuel-efficiency test this weekend, trying to drive more than 1,000 miles on a single tank of gas.

The drive, which will also raise money for the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, will start Saturday in Mount Vernon, Va., and, hopefully, finish Monday in Washington, D.C.

The team will drive for more than 43 hours continuously to reach the 1,000-mile goal with drivers taking shifts of between two and three hours. Edwards will still drive for Roush Fenway Racing over the weekend.

The Fusion Hybrid will need to average at least 57 miles per gallon to achieve its goal. During preliminary testing, Ford engineers have reached as much as 70 mpg in the Fusion Hybrid by using Eco-Driving techniques.

RCR Swaps Crew Chiefs
RacingOne.com

Richard Childress Racing’s No. 07 Jack Daniel’s crew will become the No. 29 Shell-Pennzoil crew, and vice versa, immediately following this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway.

Crew chief Gil Martin and his crew will move to the No. 29 team with driver Kevin Harvick while Todd Berrier and his crew will take over the No. 07 team with driver Casey Mears.

In addition to the crew chiefs, the transition will include car chiefs, engineers, shock specialists, engine tuners, tire specialists, mechanics, transporter drivers and over-the-wall pit crews. Harvick and Mears, who will maintain their race spotters, are currently 16th and 22nd, respectively, in the Sprint Cup Series point standings after eight races.

“The decision to interchange the 29 and 07 teams was made to make both programs stronger and more successful,” said Richard Childress, president and CEO of Richard Childress Racing.

“Our main objective has always been to have all four of RCR’s teams qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Neither team has had the success this season that we know they’re capable of, so we decided it was time to make a change to improve the two teams and the overall strength of RCR. We feel this change positions us to achieve that goal. Todd and Gil are proven winners who have strong and successful teams behind them. Chemistry is an important part of any successful organization and I felt it was time to change the makeup of these two teams. We’ve done this before with positive results."

Aaron’s 400 HOT! Sheet

The top three this week are the same guys we talked about last week, so let’s choose a few others. Let’s blow a little ‘Smoke’. For a first year team, Tony Stewart has really flourished and proven that he is one of the best behind the wheel of a racecar. The former champion has only had two finishes outside the top 8 all season. As you can see on our chart, his average finish in the last three events is right at 3rd place. Alongside his six runner-ups, he won finally won here last fall. Get him on your roster right away.

His former teammate, Denny Hamlin, is also one to watch out for. The #11 team has finished 6th or better in half of the races this season. It’s been good enough to vault him into the top 5 in the standings. Most recently, he has an average finish of 5 ½ in the last four events. Included in there are back-to-back runner-ups on the short tracks at Bristol and Martinsville. He has led in each of his six trips here. A trip to victory lane is not too far away.

A man really on the move is Greg Biffle. He has finished in the top 7 in half of the races so far, and if he hadn’t been wrapped up in an accident at Atlanta and had an engine failure at Bristol, he would definitely be among the top 10 in the standings. His last two races have boosted confidence in everyone after this led 93 laps and finished 3rd at Texas and then put together a solid top 5 at Phoenix. His record isn’t the greatest at Talladega, but we would still say he’s fine this weekend.

At the very bottom of our sheet this week is Elliott Sadler. Ever since his near miss when he led 24 laps at Daytona and wound up with a 5th place run, he has been nowhere to be seen. Since then, his average finish is about 27th. As you can see below, in the last three events it’s about 32nd. He has finished on the lead lap only once since the opening race, and even then he struggled (20th – Bristol). He doesn’t belong on your roster right now.

Almost an exact mirror to Sadler is the man right with him at the bottom this week, David Ragan. He ran 6th at Daytona, but since then is averaging about 24th. Even when things have looked like they were going his way, something happens to ruin it. That was the case at Texas when he qualified 4th and ended up leading his first lap of the season. But eventually he had an engine failure that forced him home with a DNF in 37th. He ended up 3rd and 4th last season here, so he may not be a terrible selection. But he gets our “buyer beware” label this week.

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Driver Handicaps: Talladega
By Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday's Aaron's 499. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 188-lap event.

Who's HOT at Talladega
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with six wins.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins and 10 top 10s in 18 starts.
• Tony Stewart has one win and six runner-up finishes.
• Jimmie Johnson has a win and two runner-up finishes in his last five starts.
• Kurt Busch has finished eighth or better in nine of the last 11 races.
• Jimmie Johnson has the best average finish (8.0) in the three races with the COT.

Keep an Eye on at Talladega
• Kyle Busch won back-to-back restrictor-plate races last season (Talladega and Daytona).
• Kevin Harvick currently holds the longest streak without a DNF at Talladega (16).
• David Ragan finished in the top five in both Talladega races in 2008.
• Denny Hamlin has led 86 laps with the COT at Talladega.
• Mark Martin will be making his first start since 2006 at Talladega where he has 22 top 10s.
• Earnhardt Ganassi drivers: Martin Truex Jr. and Juan Pablo Montoya. Truex will be driving the same car that won the pole and finished 11th in the Daytona 500 and Montoya captured a runner-up finish in this event last year.
• Of the drivers not already mentioned, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman and Casey Mears each have two top 10s at Talladega in the COT.

Track Performers
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers in wins (12) and laps led (1,376) on restrictor-plate tracks. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is second in wins with seven. Mark Martin tops all drivers with 37 top 10s. Last July, Kyle Busch became the ninth driver to win back-to-back restrictor-plate races, with his wins in the Aaron's 499 and Coke Zero 400. (These stats do not reflect the 2000 race at New Hampshire.)

Qualifying Tidbits
Last fall, Travis Kvapil scored his first career Cup Series pole in qualifying at Talladega Superspeedway. It was the eighth pole for Yates Racing at the 2.66-mile track. Although Kvapil won't be in the race, Yates will field the No. 98 for Paul Menard and the No. 96 (Hall of Fame Racing) with driver Bobby Labonte. Last year in this event, Joe Nemechek captured his fourth pole at Talladega Superspeedway after turning a lap of 187.386 mph. The pole broke a tie for second among all active drivers. Bill Elliott, who will not race this weekend, leads all active drivers with eight poles. In the 2007 spring race, Jeff Gordon became the first driver to win from the pole, since Bobby Labonte turned the trick in 1998. Gordon also holds the distinction as the winner who started the furthest back in the field when he took the green flag from 36th in his 2000 season victory. In all, 13 drivers have gone on to win at the 2.66-mile speedway from the pole.

RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pete Pistone: Tony Stewart
Rachael West: Jimmie Johnson
Kym Opalenik: Denny Hamlin

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

1. Jeff Gordon: Gordon leads all active drivers with 12 wins on restrictor-plate tracks. Last fall, he broke a tie with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the most wins among active drivers at Talladega Superspeedway after he took his sixth checkered flag. His laps led total, of 805, currently leads all drivers. Last year, Gordon finished 19th and 38th (crash), respectively.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson won his first race at Talladega Superspeedway in the 2006 spring race after starting 16th. It was also his second plate win of 2006 after winning the Daytona 500. In 2007, he went on to finish second in both events for his fourth and fifth top 10 in 13 starts. Last year, Johnson finished 13th and ninth, respectively. His ninth-place finish was his sixth top 10 in 14 starts. In the 2004 Talladega fall event, Johnson equaled his worst finish (37th) after the engine overheated from a collision on pit road. In the last 12 races, Johnson has led in every race adding up to his 190 laps led at Talladega. This weekend Johnson will race the same car (chassis No. 474) that competed at Talladega last fall.

3. Kurt Busch: Busch has finished in the top 10 in 11 of the 16 races he has competed in at Talladega Superspeedway, including seven of the last nine. His best finishes at the 2.66-mile superspeedway are three third-place runs, with two of them coming in two of the last five races. Last year, Busch posted his worst finishes with Penske Racing at Talladega in 39th and 21st. This weekend Busch will look to get back on track at the Alabama track by driving the same car (chassis No. 588) that finished ninth in the Bud Shootout.

4. Tony Stewart: Stewart is coming off his first win at Talladega Superspeedway after leading 24 laps last fall. Prior to the 2006 fall race where he finished 22nd, Stewart finished second in three consecutive races at Talladega Superspeedway. In 20 Talladega starts, Stewart has 12 top-10 finishes and has led 268 laps. This weekend in his Talladega debut with his new team, Stewart will drive the same car (chassis No. 532) that finished second in the first Gatorade Duel at Daytona earlier this season.

5. Denny Hamlin: In the 2007 fall race at Talladega Superspeedway, Hamlin scored his first top 10 in nine restrictor-plate starts by finishing fourth. He backed up that run in this event last year with a third-place run after leading 37 laps. Since then, Hamlin has posted a 30.0 average finish in three plate races (Talladega once, and twice at Daytona). This weekend Hamlin will be back in the same car (chassis No. 233) that finished 26th in the Daytona 500 and posted two top-five finishes in 2008 (Indianapolis and Fontana).

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes, his first two, at Talladega Superspeedway with respective finishes of ninth and fifth. The results in 2008 lowered his overall average to 22.5 in six starts. This weekend he will pilot a car (chassis No. 230) that was formerly a backup car for the No. 07 team.

7. Kyle Busch: Busch turned around his restrictor-plate record last season after capturing wins at Talladega in April and Daytona in July. Prior to 2008, Busch's only top 10s on plate tracks came at Daytona. His Talladega win lowered his finishing average to 25.8 in eight starts at the track. This weekend Busch will return in the same car (chassis No. 156) that finished fourth and first, respectively, at Daytona in 2008.

8. Carl Edwards: Prior to 2007, Edwards put together a solid run of finishes in three consecutive races at Talladega Superspeedway. In that span, he recorded an average finish of 7.3, which included his career-best Talladega finish, of fifth, in the fall of 2005. His first two starts didn't fare as well, as he finished 42nd (mechanical) and 32nd (crash), respectively. In the 2007 spring race, the engine failed in the No. 99 Ford, and Edwards was relegated to another 42nd-place finish. In the last four races, Edwards' only finish inside the top 25 was 14th in the 2007 fall race. This weekend Edwards will be racing the same chassis (RK-629) that finished 18th in the Daytona 500 this year.

9. David Reutimann: Reutimann has yet to score a top 10 at Talladega Superspeedway. His best finish, of 20th, came in this event last year. It was the only time he was running at the finish after a crash and two engine failures took him out of contention in his other three starts.

10. Kasey Kahne: Kahne's only top 10 in 10 starts at Talladega Superspeedway was a second-place finish in the 2006 fall race. Two times, Kahne has scored a DNF at Talladega after crashing out of the spring event in 2006 and the 2008 fall race. Overall, Kahne has a 22.2 average finish and had led 14 laps.

11. Jeff Burton: Burton has raced in 62 restrictor-plate races, including the 2000 New Hampshire event, where he led every lap. Burton has run 30 of the events at Talladega Superspeedway where he has captured three top-five and 11 top-10 finishes. His fourth-place finish last fall was his second top five, and third top 10, in nine starts with Richard Childress Racing. The 2004 fall race marked Burton's first race at Talladega with RCR. He led six laps in that event and ran in the lead pack until he broke a valve in the engine with only five laps to go, relegating him to a 13th-place finish. Burton's worst finish with RCR at Talladega came in the 2007 fall race, when he finished last, after the engine expired in the No. 31 Chevrolet.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth captured his best finish, of third, in 18 starts at Talladega Superspeedway in the 2005 fall race. In 2006, he continued the top-10 streak by finishing sixth and fourth, respectively. Since then, Kenseth has posted an average finish of 26.8 (four races) that includes a 41st-place finish in this event last year.

13. Mark Martin: Martin heads to Talladega Superspeedway fresh off his first victory with Hendrick Motorsports last weekend at Phoenix. Sunday's start will be Martin's first at Talladega since 2006. In 42 career starts at the Alabama track, Martin has earned two wins, 10 top-five finishes and 22 top 10s. This weekend Martin will pilot the same car (chassis No. 472) that finished 16th in the Daytona 500 in February.

14. Greg Biffle: Talladega Superspeedway is the only track on the schedule where Biffle has yet to score a top 10. His best finish in 12 starts was 13th in the 2005 spring race. Last year, Biffle finished 18th in the spring and 24th in the fall after a crash took him out of contention.

15. Juan Montoya: Montoya finished second in this event last year. It was his only top 10 in four starts, and it lowered his overall finishing average to 18.2. This weekend Montoya will make his first Talladega start in a Chevrolet. The car (chassis No. 902) he will be driving is the same one that finished 14th in the Daytona 500 earlier this year.

16. Kevin Harvick: Harvick currently holds the longest streak without a DNF at Talladega Superspeedway of 16 races. In fact, he has only scored one DNF in 32 restrictor-plate races. Harvick, who has two runner-up Sprint Cup finishes at Talladega, saw his worst finish in the last 12 races come last spring when he took the checkered flag in 24th. Seven top-10 finishes have helped give Harvick an average finish of 14.6. Harvick's best qualifying effort at Talladega came in the 2005 spring race when he won the pole. In that event, he led 12 laps and finished 12th, snapping a four-race streak of finishes of seventh or better. This weekend Harvick will be racing the same car (chassis No. 238) that ran in five races last season (no plate races) and finished in the top 10 three times.

17. Ryan Newman: Newman has finished in the top 10 six times, including three of the last four races, at Talladega Superpseedway. His best finish in 14 starts is a pair of fourth-place efforts in the 2003 and 2005 fall races.

18. Brian Vickers: Last year in this event, Vickers scored his third top five in nine starts at Talladega Superspeedway. His fifth-place finish in that race was his best in three starts with Team Red Bull at the superspeedway. He won this event in 2006 driving for Hendrick Motorsports in a controversial finish.

19. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Although Earnhardt Jr. has posted an average finish of 24.3 in his last eight starts at Talladega Superspeedway, his track record speaks for itself. From the fall event in 2001 through 2004, Earnhardt Jr. mastered Talladega scoring five wins - including four straight - and two runner-up finishes. In 18 starts at the Alabama track, Earnhardt has led in 16 races, including 10 consecutive from 10/15/2000 - 05/01/2005, for a total of 635 laps. Earnhardt's best finish with Hendrick Motorsports at Talladega came last spring, in 10th. The finish was also his only inside the top 25 in the three COT races there. This weekend Junior will drive the same car (chassis No. 475) that finished 27th in the rain-shortened Daytona 500 in February.

20. David Stremme: Stremme has made five starts at Talladega Superspeedway with Chip Ganassi Racing. Two of those starts came in the COT, where he finished 17th and 28th, respectively. This weekend will mark his first track start with Penske Racing. He will be driving a new car (chassis No. 586) in the Aaron's 499.

Aaron's 499 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

Mark Martin surprised and delighted NASCAR fans last week as the "old man" ended his 97-race winless streak at Phoenix. He'll try for two in a row this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, a place where he has not won since 1997, to celebrate 40 years of bumping, drafting, and spectacular wrecks for the Aaron's 499 this Sunday, April 26 at 1 p.m. FOX will televise the race.

Who will win the 2009 Aaron's 499?

What makes Talladega a favorite track (at 2.66 miles the high-banked tri-oval is NASCAR's longest track) for fans is that they can expect the unexpected. Last October it looked like Regan Smith won the race, beating out Stewart with Paul Menard finishing third and David Ragan fourth. However, NASCAR officials concluded that Smith illegally passed Stewart on the final turn, going below the yellow line. Smith said he was forced over the line. But NASCAR sided with Stewart who claimed his first Talladega victory of his career.

It's hard to look back at Daytona, another restrictor plate track, to predict how drivers will do at Talladega. Daytona is worn and bumpy while Talladega is smooth and wide and was repaved in 2006. Bumping and drafting don't always work at Talladega. Just ask Carl Edwards, whose aggressive driving did just that to Greg Biffle and caused an enormous multi-car wreck last October.

Gamblers should be wary of backing a few drivers at Talladega. Greg Biffle has five DNFs in his last six starts at 'Dega. The Daytona 500 pole-sitter, Martin Truex Jr., has had a hard time at Talladega as he has not finished the past three races at the superspeedway.

At fourth place in the Sprint Cup standings Tony Stewart has defied expectations this year and will look to win two in a row at 'Dega. In 20 starts Smoke has 12 top-10 finishes of which he has finished second six times.

Nobody has amassed more points in the last four races at Talladega than Johnson, however. His 622 points leads all drivers at the Superspeedway and during that same time period Johnson has notched two second places and finished no worse than 13. But then Johnson is always a threat to win every time he gets in the No. 48.

My pick to win this Sunday is No. 18. Kyle Busch won Talladega's spring race last year; the first of two restrictor plate victories of 2008. At Daytona Kyle Busch led the race for 88 laps. "Rowdy" must be still fuming about getting flagged for speeding down pit-row at Phoenix with less than 10 laps to go. He started the race in second but that move cost him and he finished 17th at PIR.

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (3/2)

2009 Aaron's 499 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In keeping with the theme that anything is possible and quite likely at Talladega I'm looking at a driver that does very well at restrictor plate races. The last time Rousch Fenway Racing's David Ragan finished in the top 10 was at the Daytona 500 when Ragan finished sixth after starting the race 33rd on the grid. In four starts at Talladega Ragan has notched two top-five finishes; both came last year. In the spring race Ragan finished fourth and in autumn he improved to finish third. Granted, he moved up a space after Smith's win was disallowed, but even so Ragan is proving to be a restrictor plate specialist. In 2007 Ragan finished 17th in spring and 34th in autumn, which explains his 14.5-place average finish. Last October Ragan even managed to lead the pack for 11 laps. He was the only NASCAR driver to record two top-five finishes at Talladega last year. I won't be surprised to see the No. 6 UPS Ford leading again and perhaps even surprising everyone with an improbable win at the crap shoot that is Talladega.

Pick! David Ragan, No. 6, (30/1)

2009 Aaron's 499 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Earlier this year I picked Jeff Gordon to win Daytona, citing his restrictor plate success, experience, and rejuvenated team. He started third on the grid and looked good in the beginning of the race. But Gordon closed poorly and finished the race 13th. Since then Gordon has not looked back and has currently been the 2009 Sprint Cup points leader for the past six races. Gordon has finished in the top-five in five out of eight Sprint Cup races this year; including a win at Texas, two seconds and two fourths. Last week at Phoenix he began the race in fourth and finished 25th, his worst finish of the year. Gordon's lead over teammate Jimmie Johnson has shrunk to 85 points, and given Gordon's restrictor plate success I like him to bounce back big time on Sunday. In 2008 Gordon finished 19th in spring and 38th after an accident knocked him out of the autumn race. But in 2007 Gordon swept both races at 'Dega and has earned a career 550 points in Alabama. In 32 starts at Talladega Gordon has six wins with three of those wins coming in the spring race. Talladega is one of the hardest races on the circuit to predict, but I see the points' leader finishing this race in the top three.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (12/5)

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Aaron’s 499 PostQ

Denny Hamlin sits atop the PostQ forecast for the first time this season for the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. Hamlin makes the move to the top of the chart thanks in large part to the No. 2 ranking in NASCAR’s Driver Rating category. He hasn’t had the greatest of luck at Talladega in his career averaging an 18th place finish but he does have a pair of top 5 finishes at the track. Hamlin also ran well in the practice sessions sitting in the 4th position on our Speed chart. One of Hamlin’s goals is to win more races, which has not happened since the spring of last season. He could very well get his first win of the season this weekend.

There has been plenty of talk about Tony Stewart and his race team. Stewart has started his new career as driver/owner in pretty solid fashion with six top 10s in the first eight races. He could pass the next hurdle of driver/owner by taking his #14 Old Spice Chevrolet to victory lane this weekend. He will have to make up some track position as he will be starting in the 30th position but that doesn’t mean much at Talladega. What does help is that he ranks 10th on our Speed chart and is No. 1 overall in NASCAR’s Driver Rating category. Stewart could be climbing the fence at Talladega when it is all said and done this Sunday afternoon.

Of all the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers that one that fantasy players should have on their roster for this race is David Ragan. Ragan has had his fair share of problems this season but he does run well on the restrictor plate tracks. His lone top 10 finish this season came in the season opening Daytona 500 – the other restrictor plate track in the series. He had a pair of top 5 finishes at Talladega last season with an average finish of 14th place in four career starts. Ragan has looked good already this weekend qualifying in the 10th position while ranking 5th on our Speed chart. He should be able to get his second top 10 of the season in the Aaron’s 499.

While fantasy players will be adding Ragan their roster it would be wise to avoid teammate Matt Kenseth. Kenseth qualified quite well, in the 13th position, especially considering he is notorious for poor qualifying runs. He ranked just 37th on our Speed chart, however, which did not help much as he moved up from 31st on the PreQ forecast to 26th on the PostQ forecast. He is averaging a 27th place finish in the last four races at Talladega and will be hard pressed to do much better than that this weekend. We recommend avoiding the #17 DeWalt Ford for this race.

At the beginning of the season Michael Waltrip stated that if he does compete at a consistent level he would consider getting out from behind the wheel of the #55 NAPA Toyota. He started the year with a solid 7th place finish but has since struggled with just two other top 20 finishes as he ranks 25th in the point standings. Waltrip may struggle at Talladega, however, as he ranked just 21st on our Speed chart while qualifying in the 32nd position. Waltrip does love restrictor plate racing recording all four of his career wins on restrictor plate tracks. But he has not been to victory lane in nearly seven years. It might be time for Waltrip to step aside at the end of the 2009 season.

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