Aarons 499 News and Notes

Odds & Ends - Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway Data

Race #: 9 of 36 (4-25-10)
Track Size: 2.66 miles
# Banking/Corners: 33 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
# Frontstretch: 4,300 feet
# Backstretch: 4,000 feet

Driver Rating at Talladega

Brad Keselowski* 94.2
Denny Hamlin 93.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 92.2
David Ragan 91.8
Joey Logano* 90.0
Tony Stewart 89.9
Brian Vickers 89.3
Jeff Gordon 87.1
Jeff Burton 85.8
Matt Kenseth 85.7

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Talladega.

* - Keselowski and Logano have each run two Talladega races

Qualifying/Race Data

2009 pole winner: Juan Pablo Montoya (188.171 mph, 50.890 seconds)
2009 race winner: Brad Keselowski, 147.565 mph, 4-26-09)
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph, 44.998 seconds, 4-30-87)
Track race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph, 5-10-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 34-36 laps, based on fuel mileage

Aaron's 499 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

One of the most exciting races of any NASCAR season is always held at Talladega. Despite the usual late drama that creates that excitement, for bettors, it's one of the least favorites of the season just because of all the unknowns. Due to the beast of a 2.66-mile, 33 degree banked monster of a track, and the volatile nature where any driver can get caught up in "The Big One", the value of the odds never seem to weigh out the risk.

Over the last decade, when wagering on NASCAR has really taken off, Talladega is one of the few sporting events where the popularity doesn't match the wagers through the betting windows.

Restrictor-plate racing only takes place four times a year, two each at Daytona and Talladega. Compared to all 20 other tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, the plate races draw the least action in matchup betting just because there isn't the normal quality data heading into a race like the others compounded by the major possibility a wager could be knocked out by one of the massive wrecks.

Odds to win action still gets the normal type of wagers, and in some cases exceeds other tracks in ticket counts, but the amount wagered by many is far less thanks to a sizeable decrease in matchup wagers and downgrading of a normal unit wager in odds to win.

On a normal week, most of us look at the past history, recent trends with each team, and then use the information gained from the final practice sessions at that particular track to get a great read on who the top candidates are. Usually on race day, those top drivers that are found from all the data gained perform well, and in some instances they even win.

At Talladega, we have to throw all the conventional handicapping out the window. Practice matters very little just because most of speeds are skewed somewhat because of most cars driving in packs are 7 mph, or faster, gained from practicing in the draft, as opposed to what they would be by themselves.

The cars are all so bunched up and shuffling position constantly throughout that any gain a car may have on it's own is negated because of the masses surrounding it.

Over the years we have seen some pretty good runs by certain teams that always managed to finish near the top or win. From the fall of 2001 to the spring of 2004, Dale Earnhardt Jr won four straight Talladega races. At the time, it was as sure of thing for Junior to win as it was in Jeff Gordon's hey-day on the road courses. Finding Junior at odds of 5/2 or higher was value.

Between people feeling it was almost pointless to bet on another driver and those that didn't want Junior at such a low return, the betting action suffered in the sports books.

Last season, we saw just the opposite at Talladega where Brad Keselowski won at odds of 100/1 and higher in the spring and Jamie McMurray won with odds of 35/1 in the fall. There weren't too many bettors that can say with a straight face that they had Keselowski to win, but the positive was that it showed that other drivers could win. It showed not only that other drivers could win, but that the win could be huge by taking a chance on some of the others in the field.

By the time McMurray won, a lot of people got paid at high odds, not because of anything he had done in practice, but because he had shown that he had a niche for plate racing by winning at Daytona in 2007 and the value was right.

One of the better strategies I've seen when betting Talladega is to take a look at every underdog in the matchups and take a shot with them. You won't get the big prices like some of the other tracks, but with so many opportunities to have an unsuspecting great car get wiped out, taking plus money is the smart move. Laying a price for any plate race isn't very wise unless it's a short price and Dale Jr. from 2002 is who you bet.

Earnhardt Jr. is one of the interesting choices this week. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book is just daring people to bet him, hoping bettors use their heart and past memories to induce a wager, but at 15 to 1, how can you not? True, he hasn't won at Talladega since 2004 which is also the last time he's won a plate race, period. Heck, he hasn't won a race of any kind in 65 races. But maybe this is the week it happens. Maybe because of current state of mind, which should be on the upswing because of sitting seventh in points, is at it's best since 2004.

Of all the Hendrick cars, Junior's looks to be the most capable. At Daytona this season he looked like he didn't have anything, but with the race on the line he parted the sea of cars like Moses and grabbed a second-place finish. If Junior were 6/1, there would be no value there, especially with the volatility of the track and today's NASCAR that doesn't feature a restrictor-plate team that is head and shoulders above all. But at 15/1, come on, that's value, even at Talladega.

The Hendrick cars were the ones to dominate following the DEI-Junior reign. From 2004 to 2007, they totaled nine wins between the team in plate races. Since then, they have been rather ordinary outside of Junior's finish this season at Daytona.

The team that has taken it up a notch like never seen before has been the Fenway-Roush program. Prior to 2007, Roush had won sparingly in plate races. Mark Martin grabbed two at Talladega with the last coming in 1997. Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle each won a Firecracker at Daytona, but Jamie McMurray set off the fireworks with his fall Daytona win in 2007. The 2008 season saw several Roush cars perform well enough to win, but come up short, but last season, a Roush car took two of the four plate races including Roush's first Daytona 500 win.

Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and even David Ragan to an extent have all proven themselves over the last three seasons to be very good in plate races.

The two drivers I like initially coming in are pretty much the same drivers I always like in plate races. Maybe it's because I'm biased being from Las Vegas mixed in with them actually being very good in plate races, but Kyle and Kurt Busch are who I'm looking at this week.

Kyle Busch has very nice, fair odds at 10/1 with Kurt Busch getting 15/1. It looks like Kyle Busch has his team going in the right direction and he knows what it takes to get up front, or at least make the winning move late. Kurt Busch still remains the best plate racer to not have a plate win.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (15/1)
3) #2 Kurt Busch (15/1)
4) #16 Carl Edwards (18/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (10/1)

Edwards, FR9 Ready for Talladega
By Racingone.com

Carl Edwards will have Ford's new engine under the hood of his Roush Fenway Racing entry this weekend as he tries to snap a long NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winless drought in Sunday's Aaron's 499 at Talladega Superspeedway.

All cars under the Roush Fenway and Richard Petty Motorsports umbrella will be running the new piece at Talladega Superspeedway which will mark the first points race in which a majority of Ford Fusions in the field will have the FR9. At Daytona, teams ran the engine in practice, qualifying and the Gatorade Duels, but only Bill Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Elliott Sadler ran it in the Daytona 500.

The step to run the engine across all of the RFR and RPM teams comes after much testing and additional work and fine-tuning by the Wood Brothers Racing team in race conditions.

"It’s been a great help that the Wood Brothers have been able to run it all year, said David Simon, Ford Racing engineer. "They’ve been a great asset for us in that respect, so the validation process is going well.

"We’re on schedule for the rollout with the open package and, barring any hiccups here in the next couple of months, we’ll be racing it pretty much the second half of the season.”

Edwards is hoping the much-anticipated new powerplant will help him get to victory lane or at least turnaround his recent fortunes at Talladega. He has a 27.2 average finish in his last four runs to the 2.66-mile track a stretch that included last year's dramatic flying finish after making contact with Brad Keselowski heading to the checkered flag.

"Obviously a year ago the finish was a little more exciting than I would have liked, but we were in a position to win," said Edwards, who will race the same car he ran in February at Daytona where he finished ninth.. "We’re going to go back with points in mind considering the trouble we had in Atlanta and Texas, and hopefully we can come out of Talladega in one piece. I’d like to have an opportunity to win again like we did a year ago."

Sunday's race will be the first at Talladega with the New Sprint Cup rear spoiler and although Edwards was not at the track last month to participate in the open test, he feels confident he'll have a solid car to run this weekend.

"I didn’t get to take part in the test, but from what I’ve heard I believe the spoiler will make it a little different race," he said. "The cars will be able to close a little bit more, and maybe make some moves we wouldn’t have been able to make with the wing."

Driver Handicaps: Talladega
RacingOne.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday's Aaron's 499. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 188-lap event.

Who's HOT at Talladega
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (817).
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins and 11 top 10s in 20 starts.
• Tony Stewart has one win and six runner-up finishes.
• Jeff Burton has a 7.8 average finish in his last four starts.
• Jimmie Johnson has a win and five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts.
• Denny Hamlin has the best driver rating among drivers with two or more starts.
• Kurt Busch has finished eighth or better in eight of the last 11 races.
• Defending event winner Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with a 4.5 average finish.

Keep an Eye on at Talladega
• Jamie McMurray has won the last two restrictor-plate events.
• Kyle Busch has one win and has led the 79 laps with the COT.
• Roush Fenway and Richard Petty Motorsports drivers will be racing the new FR9 engine.
• Kevin Harvick currently holds the longest streak without a DNF at Talladega (18).
• Joey Logano posted a 6.0 average finish at Talladega in his rookie season.
• Ryan Newman has captured three top 10s with the COT at Talladega.
• Juan Pablo Montoya leads all drivers with a 13.3 average running position at Talladega.

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Talladega Superspeedway unless noted)

1. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of the 2006 spring race; Finished second in both races in 2007; Leads all drivers that have competed in the five races with the COT, with an average finish of 12.0; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 574) that was scheduled to race in the Daytona 500 before getting in a practice crash.

2. Matt Kenseth: 24.7 average finish in last six starts; Last of six top 10s came in the 2006 Fall race; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 690) in the Aaron's 499.

3. Greg Biffle: Coming off two consecutive top 10s; Finishes were first top 10s in 14 starts; Fourth-place finish last fall was first top five; 15.2 average finish in five races with the COT; Piloting brand-new chassis No. 689.

4. Kevin Harvick: 24.6 average finish in last five starts; Last of seven top 10s came in this event in 2007; 15.8 average finish in 36 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 237) that won the Bud Shootout at Daytona in February.

5. Jeff Gordon: Leads all active drivers with six wins and laps led (817); Swept both races in 2007; Won first race with the COT at the track; Has posted an average finish of 28.5 in last four starts.

6. Kyle Busch: Won the 2008 spring race; Has led 79 laps in the five races with the COT; Led 42 laps and finished 25th in this event last year; 21.0 average finish in 21 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Bringing chassis No. 152, which made its debut in last year's fall Talladega race to an 18th-place finish.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Five-time winner; Finished second in this event last year for eighth top five; 12.8 average finish in four starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 575) that he tested at Talladega last month.

8. Jeff Burton: Has finished in the top 10 in last three starts; Fifth-place finish last fall was fifth top 10 in 11 starts with Richard Childress Racing; 14.8 in the five races with the COT; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 240) that finished 11th in the Daytona 500.

9. Kurt Busch: 14.5 average finish in eight starts with Penske Racing; Overall average finish (13.1) ranks first among drivers with three or more starts; Sixth-place finish in this event last year was 12th top 10 in 18 overall starts; 15.4 average finish in 37 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Piloting chassis No. PRS-632 which debuted to a fourth-place finish in his Duel race at Daytona and finished 23rd in the Daytona 500.

10. Mark Martin: Finished 43rd and 28th, respectively, in first track starts with Hendrick Motorsports in 2009; A crash has taken him out of the race in three of his last five starts; Last of 22 top 10s came in the 2006 fall race with Roush Racing; Won the spring race in 1995 and 1997; Driving brand-new chassis No. 5-561.

11. Denny Hamlin: Best driver rating among drivers that have competed in more than two races; Tied for the most laps led in the five races with the COT; Led 28 laps in this event last year en route to a 22nd-place finish; Last of two top 10s (third) came in this event in 2008; Chassis No. 233 will be used for the third consecutive time at Talladega.

12. Joey Logano: Finished in the top 10 in both races in 2009; 18.8 average finish in five starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 245) that finished third last fall at Talladega.

13. Tony Stewart: Won the 2008 fall race in last track start with Joe Gibbs Racing; Posted six second-place finishes in previous 18 starts with JGR; Finished 23rd and 35th, respectively, in first two track starts with Stewart-Haas in 2009; Only one of his 124 laps led with the COT have come with SHR; Bringing chassis No. 565 which finished second in his Duel race and 22nd in the Daytona 500.

14. Clint Bowyer: Only top 10s came in both races in 2008; Fifth-place finish in the 2008 fall race is best in eight starts; 17.5 average finish in 17 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 296) in the Aaron's 499.

15. Carl Edwards: 27.2 average finish in last six starts; crashes have taken him out of two of the last three races; Three top 10s in 11 starts came in the 2005 fall race through the 2006 fall race; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 650) that finished ninth in the Daytona 500.

16. Ryan Newman: Finished third in first track start with Stewart-Haas in this event last year; Finish was seventh top 10 in 16 overall starts; Posted fifth DNF last fall after a crash took him out of contention; 19.0 average finish in five races with the COT; Debuting a brand-new chassis No. 596.

17. Martin Truex Jr.: Has posted a DNF in eight of his 10 starts; Last top 10 (10th) came in the 2007 spring race; 24.2 average finish in 20 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will make track debut with Michael Waltrip Racing.

18. Paul Menard: Finished second in the 2008 fall race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Finish is only top 10 in seven starts; Will make third track start in a Ford; Finished 13th in first restrictor-plate start with Richard Petty Motorsports at Daytona this year; 24.5 average finish in 13 restrictor-plate starts.

19. Brian Vickers: Won 2006 fall race with Hendrick Motorsports; 20.0 average finish in five starts with Team Red Bull; Finished eighth in this event last year; 19.4 average finish in 23 restrictor-plate starts.

20. Scott Speed: Finished fifth in this event last year; Finish is only top 10 in five restrictor-plate starts.

21. Jamie McMurray: Coming off third win on a restrictor-plate track with a victory in the Daytona 500; Won the fall event last year; Win lowered finishing average in five starts with the COT to 25.8; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1009) in the Aaron's 499.

22. Kasey Kahne: Equaled best finish in 12 starts last fall in second; Finished lowered average finish in the five races with the COT to 22.6; Will make track debut in a Ford.

23. AJ Allmendinger: 32.7 average finish in three starts; Finished 35th and 33rd in last two starts with Richard Petty Motorsports; Will make track debut in a Ford.

24. Juan Montoya: Defending event pole winner; Runner-up finish in the 2008 spring race is only top 10 in six starts; Finished 20th and 19th, respectively, in last two starts in a Chevrolet; 20.5 average finish in 13 restrictor-plate starts; Will pilot chassis No. 902, which finished 10th in season opening Daytona 500.

25. Brad Keselowski: Defending event winner; 4.5 average finish in two starts; 17.3 average finish in four restrictor-plate starts; Will race a car (chassis No. 573) that comes over from the No. 2 team.

26. Marcos Ambrose: Finished fourth in track debut last year in this event; 34th-place finish last fall helped raise his average finish in five restrictor-plate starts to 20.4.

27. David Ragan: 9.0 average finish in his last four starts; Finished in the top five in both races in 2008; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 649) that finished 16th in the Daytona 500.

28. Elliott Sadler: Finished ninth in first track start in a Richard Petty Motorsports Ford last fall; Finish was fourth top 10 in 21 starts; Finished 19th in this event last year.

29. Sam Hornish Jr.: 36.3 average finish in three starts; Has posted DNFs in last two starts.

30. David Reutimann: Has yet to post a finish inside the top 20 in six starts; Best finish came in the 2008 spring race in 20th.

Betting in Talladega
By Bodog

Who’s the most successful driver in NASCAR? Jimmie Johnson may be the four-time and defending Sprint Cup champion, not to mention AP’s Athlete of the Year for 2009, but last year’s highest-paid driver was none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. He earned an estimated $30 million on salary, endorsements and licensing according to Forbes magazine. Johnson did quite well for himself with $23 million, but Earnhardt is entrenched as the sport’s No. 1 attraction – even if he hasn’t beaten the NASCAR odds in two years.

If Earnhardt is going to end his losing streak, Talladega Superspeedway is the place to do it. Earnhardt performs better on tracks with long straightaways where restrictor plates are mandated for safety; he has five victories in 20 Cup appearances at Talladega, although none in his last 10. Moving from DEI to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008 has yet to change matters. Earnhardt has a better vehicle with the No. 88 Chevrolet Impala, and he’s starting higher up on the grid than he was before the move, but Junior only has a second-place finish at last year’s Aaron’s 499 to show for it. He’ll get another crack at it this Sunday (1:00 p.m., FOX).

Earnhardt finds himself atop the NASCAR betting lines for Sunday at 10-1, tied with Kyle Busch of Joe Gibbs Racing and Tony Stewart of Stewart Haas Racing. None of these three men has won a Cup race thus far in 2010. Busch and Stewart can’t claim to have Earnhardt’s fan base or his reputation for restrictor-plate brilliance, but Busch has taken the checkered flag eight times since Junior’s last Cup victory, including the 2008 Aaron’s 499. Stewart has five wins in that span including the 2008 AMP Energy 500 at Talladega.

Busch and Stewart also don’t have the weight of the betting public on their shoulders. “Expectations are so high with (Earnhardt) that if he’s not winning, then the world is not right,” former Cup champion and current television analyst Darrell Waltrip said last month. Texas Motor Speedway president Eddie Gossage echoed those remarks earlier this week. “If Dale Jr. won some races, things would be better,” Gossage told ESPN before Denny Hamlin spoiled things by taking Monday’s Samsung Mobile 500 in Fort Worth. Earnhardt finished eighth. Stewart crashed out, Busch was third and Johnson was second, narrowly missing out on his fourth points race win of the season.

Now that they’ve been racing on the same team in the same unibody Chevrolet, the results speak for themselves – Johnson and his crew are outperforming Earnhardt. So is the team surrounding Jeff Gordon. He’s the one man who can measure up historically to Junior on the superspeedways, winning six of 34 races at Talladega (most recently the 2007 UAW-Ford 500) and six out of 35 at Daytona. That’s a profitable return rate at odds of 11-1. Johnson is next on the market at 12-1; he tends to perform better on mid-size tracks like Texas, but Johnson won this event in 2006 and he leads the 2010 Sprint Cup standings by a healthy margin.

Mark Martin (20-1), the other (and too often ignored) member of Hendrick’s Four Horsemen, is enjoying a career renaissance at age 51 after leaving DEI in 2009 and winning five Cup races to end a four-year slump. However, none of those five victories was on a superspeedway. This just isn’t Martin’s cup of tea – he’s 2-for-44 lifetime at Talladega, last winning there in 1997, and he’s 0-for-50 at Daytona dating back to 1982.

Believe it or not, there is life outside Hendrick Motorsports. Hamlin is Busch’s teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing and the winner of two of the last three Cup events. The third was won by Stewart’s teammate, Ryan Newman. Their success has opened up the second tier of the betting market – Hamlin is available at 16-1 as we go to press, and Newman is priced at 20-1. Jamie McMurray is also available at 16-1 in his Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet; of his four Cup victories since his 2002 debut, three were in restrictor-plate races, most recently the 2010 Daytona 500. The fact that McMurray has enjoyed superspeedway success on two different teams (Roush Racing was his home until this year) suggests he does have some facility for this specific environment. And working with Junior’s former team can’t hurt, either.

Aaron's 499 at Talladega: NASCAR Betting Preview
By Greg Engle

Less than a week after a rainout makeup in Texas, NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway. While the racing has been called a high-speed chess match, the truth is that the entire complexion of the race can change in an instant. Mix in drivers with an agenda and you end up with the recipe for a great race.

Favorites

Jeff Gordon (+1200)

Gordon leads all active drivers with six wins here. In addition he has 13 Top 5s, 16 Top 10 finishes and one pole. Gordon was running towards the victory and battling his teammate Jimmie Johnson at Texas before getting caught up in a late-race accident. Gordon is starting to look like the aggressive champ of old and if he can avoid the big one this may be his breakthrough week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1500)

NASCAR's favorite son was grinning ear to ear last week after finishing eighth at Texas. He led more laps,46, then he had led the entire season. Add to that the fact he was competitive all day, finishing eighth after a late-race shuffle and Earnhardt heads to Talladega where he has five wins eight Top 5s, and 11 Top 10s, with a ton of momentum and confidence.

Jamie McMurray (+2000)

This time last season McMurray was far from anyone's favorite. Then he won the fall race at Talladega and the season opening Daytona 500, the last two NASCAR restrictor plate races. Overall, he has four Top 5s and five Top 10 finishes here and since the last visit has risen to the ranks of the favorites.

Others to watch

Jimmie Johnson (+1200)

Johnson has won here (2006) and has four Top 5s and seven Top-10 finishes. He also started on the pole at Talladega last fall. While he's a threat to win anywhere, at Talladega, Johnson has a history of finding trouble. Six of his 16 starts have ended in the garage.

Kyle Busch (+1000)

Busch has a win at Talladega (2008) and one Top 5 and one Top-10 finish. Most importantly, Busch finished third at Texas a week after an eighth at Phoenix. Busch and his Joe Gibbs Team may finally be starting to awaken and could be a threat.

Mark Martin (+2500)

Ask Mark Martin and he'll tell you Talladega is not listed among his favorite places to race. Martin has two wins, 10 Top 5 and 22 Top-10 finishes here. But his last two visits have ended in disaster. In this race last year, Martin tumbled down the front stretch on the last lap. Look for Martin to try and put that memory behind him this week.

Head to head

Brad Keselowski vs. Carl Edwards

Last season this matchup ended with Keselowski in victory lane and Edwards walking across the finish line after a flip that is still shown on highlight reels. Edwards came back in the fall to finish 14th, Keselowski eighth. Keselowski returns in a new car with a new team. Edwards is looking for his first win since 2008 - momentum Edwards.

Jeff Burton vs. Kevin Harvick

Neither Richard Childress Racing driver has won here before. Harvick learned this week he would be losing his primary sponsor at the end of the season. Word is behind the scenes Harvick now has an exit strategy and will leave RCR at the end of this year. Look for Harvick to come out on top as he does his best to finish strong and audition for another team.

Tony Stewart vs. Brian Vickers

Both drivers have solid records here with a victory apiece. Vickers will be looking to redeem his early-season disappointments, Stewart hopes to join his teammate and employee in the winner's column for 2010. Edge Stewart.