AdvoCare 500 Betting News and Notes

Driver Highlights - Atlanta

Marcos Ambrose (No. 9 Kwikset Ford)

One top 10
Average finish of 22.2
Average Running Position of 23.8, 25th-best
Driver Rating of 61.7, 25th-best

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

Three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 16.3
Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 93.7, ninth-best
234 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.426 mph, 11th-fastest
2,795 Laps in the Top 15 (71.2%), sixth-most
396 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge)

Three wins, three top fives, eight top 10s
Average finish of 18.1
Average Running Position of 14.7, 11th-best
Driver Rating of 95.6, sixth-best
236 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
679 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.451 mph, 10th-fastest
2,300 Laps in the Top 15 (58.6%), 12th-most
368 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)

One win, three top fives, three top 10s
Average finish of 17.3
Average Running Position of 14.9, 13th-best
Driver Rating of 90.6, 11th-best
182 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
747 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.385 mph, 12th-fastest
2,244 Laps in the Top 15 (57.2%), 13th-most
361 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Military Intelligence/AMP Energy Chevrolet)

One win, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.5
Average Running Position of 11.9, fourth-best
Driver Rating of 96.9, fifth-best
223 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
740 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.676 mph, third-fastest
2,818 Laps in the Top 15 (71.8%), fifth-most
398 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford)

Three wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 14.2
Average Running Position of 13.3, eighth-best
Driver Rating of 101.2, third-best
Series-high 316 Fastest Laps Run
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.858 mph, second-fastest
2,952 Laps in the Top 15 (75.2%), third-most
362 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)

Four wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.5
Average Running Position of 10.8, third-best
Driver Rating of 100.6, fourth-best
158 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.459 mph, ninth-fastest
3,125 Laps in the Top 15 (79.6%), second-most
434 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Charter Communications Toyota)

One top five, three top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 18.4
Average Running Position of 12.3, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 94.7, seventh-best
147 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.667 mph, fourth-fastest
2,324 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6%), 11th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

Three wins, 10 top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 10.4
Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
Series-best Driver Rating of 110.1
243 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.002 mph
Series-high 3,545 Laps in the Top 15 (90.3%)
Series-high 437 Quality Passes

Kasey Kahne (No. 4 Red Bull Toyota)

Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 17.1
Average Running Position of 14.8, 12th-best
Driver Rating of 93.1, 10th-best
217 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.480 mph, eighth-fastest
2,561 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), ninth-most
332 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)

Eight top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 13.0
Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 94.5, eighth-best
139 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
756 Green Flag Passes, third-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.525 mph, seventh-fastest
2,630 Laps in the Top 15 (67.0%), eighth-most
390 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

Average finish of 30.5
Average Running Position of 21.4, 22nd-best
Driver Rating of 62.4, 24th-best

Paul Menard (No. 27 Quaker State/Menards Chevrolet)

One top five, 2 top 10s
Average finish of 22.0
Average Running Position of 23.7, 24th-best
Driver Rating of 61.3, 26th-best

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)

Three top fives, four top 10s
Average finish of 17.1
Driver Rating of 88.7, 13th-best
363 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobile 1 Chevrolet)

Three wins, nine top fives, 14 top 10s
Average finish of 11.6
Average Running Position of 10.8, second-best
Driver Rating of 102.3, second-best
212 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.644 mph, fifth-fastest
2,922 Laps in the Top 15 (74.4%), fourth-most
390 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

Two top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 23.6
Average Running Position of 12.3, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 89.2, 12th-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 171.597 mph, sixth-fastest
2,631 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), seventh-most
396 Quality Passes, fourth-most

AdvoCare 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

Brad Keselowski’s rise through the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season is one of the most amazing things I have ever seen in the sport. It was only six weeks ago that Keselowski was sitting 23rd in points with slim hopes of making the Chase for the Championship and now heading into this weeks race in Atlanta, he’s 11th and considered one of the favorites to win it all.

His last four races have seen him win twice with a runner-up and third-place finish in the other two. We’ve seen likes of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon roll out similar stretches, but those were years where they dominated the entire season. In Keselowski’s case, he had only two top-five finishes in the first 20 races of the season; now he’s got six, including three wins, tied for second best in the series.

This has been a year full or parity where 14 different drivers have won a race which makes his achievement even more astounding. He’s peaking at the right time and as he continues to dominate on every type of track, his odds to win the championship keep getting lower and lower.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened Keselowski at odds of 300/1 to win the title before the season started. Before last week, while he was on a great three-race run, he was 25/1. Following Saturday’s night’s Bristol win, he’s now 15/1, the same odds as his teammate Kurt Busch who currently sits in the eighth position.

The shift in power within the Penske organization seems to coincide with each other beginning with the Brickyard 400 five races ago. Heading into the race, Kurt Busch was third in points with Keselowski 23rd. Four of Busch’s last five starts have seen him finish 17th or worse while plummeting to eighth while Keselowski has gone on his run like he’s made a deal with the devil.

Busch’s struggles and Keselowski’s rise could be a matter of car owner Roger Penske having enough with Busch’s antics within the organization. Busch was supposed to be the No. 1 on the team and the equipment through the first half between each reflected it, but it’s obvious something changed for each because it wasn’t like Keselowski just learned how to drive better. He’s always wheeled a good car to great results in every series he’s been in.

Let’s also not forget that Keselowski has done all this in the last four races with a broken ankle, which is part of what has endeared him to so many fans in such a short amount of time. NASCAR fans love tough drivers and driving like he has with a broken limb is about as tough as it gets.

Keselowski had to fight his way to where he’s at with all kinds of resistance from drivers like Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin trying to intimidate him on and off the track. Last season Hamlin was publicly calling him Brad Crash-a-lot-ski, but now it’s not so funny anymore for Hamlin as he’s become the one who struggles every week with the wall and is danger of not making the Chase.

This will be the first and only race of the season in Atlanta, the first time since the track opened in 1960 that they won’t host two races. In the past, Atlanta Motor Speedway officials had always attributed their declining fall attendance to losing the battle for customer dollars to SEC football which makes it ironic that they would host their one date on the opening week of college football.

Not only do they have to battle all the teams for attention this week, but the Georgia Bulldogs play their biggest game of the season in the Georgia Dome against Boise State on Saturday night. Perhaps if there is any money left over from the Bulldog fan's day of partying, the Atlanta race might get some spillover attendance on Sunday night.

While we haven’t seen a race in Atlanta this year, we have seen a few between the sisters tracks of Las Vegas, Charlotte and Texas which can be used as a great reference point to handicap this weeks race. The Roush drivers would be a good starting point beginning with three-time Atlanta winner Carl Edwards, who won at Las Vegas, and Matt Kenseth, who won at Texas. Edwards will be using his fifth-place Kansas chassis while Kenseth will be going with a brand new car.

Kevin Harvick won at Charlotte just ahead of Roush driver David Ragan, but it was Kenseth who led the most laps and had the best car that night. If Ragan can duplicate his fine performance from Charlotte and capture a win, it would give him two wins and bump Hamlin out of the Chase with one race to go. Kenseth should to be the driver to focus on this week with three-time Atlanta winner Jimmie Johnson being there as well.

We shouldn't forget about Harvick, though. He hasn't won a race since Charlotte in May, his third of the season, but it should be noted for good measure that he will be using that same Charlotte car this week. I've been waiting for him to regain some momentum and Atlanta might be the place.

Johnson will be using a car that finished third at Fontana, eighth at Texas, ninth at Dover and most recently fourth-place at Pocono. This is his time of the year where it's all business for Johnson. Although he doesn't have a win with this car, it's pretty plain to see that he will likely be in the top-five contending.

If Penske has actually shifted powers within his organization, Keselowski should also be considered because Kurt Busch has won two of the last four Atlanta races. Keselowski will be using his Michigan car that finish 25th. His last four races have also been with cars that didn't have great first impressions, so it matters little.

We should also mention Paul Menard as a possible candidate to do well just because he's using his winning Brickyard 400 chassis this week.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) # 48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (14/1)

AdvoCare 500 NASCAR Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz

Labor Day weekend in sports mean so many things. College football is back. The NFL is right around the corner. And the boys of NASCAR are about set to begin their version of the playoffs.

On Sunday night at 7:46 (ET), some of the best drivers in the world will engage in NASCAR betting action at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the AdvoCare 500, the next-to-last race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup. TV coverage is provided by ESPN.

There are really only a few drivers that are sweating their spots in the Chase for the Sprint Cup right now. We fully expect to see 10 drivers locked up in their Chase bids after this race. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon have already punched their tickets into the postseason, and Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. should all get in with this race.

One more driver will clinch a Wild Card slot. There are a slew of drivers hoping that the hot racing of Brad Keselowski continues at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 2 Dodge was once at least +5000 on the NASCAR odds in every race. But thanks to the fact that he has won twice in his last four races and finished in the Top 3 in all four, he has improved to +1200 on the Don Best odds screen.

Keselowski needs just a handful of points to clinch at least a Wild Card berth, but he is still putting out the effort to close that 21-point gap between he and Tony Stewart in 10th place.

Stewart is also +1200 on the AdvoCare 500 odds and doesn't have a win to his credit on the season. If he falls behind Keselowski or Clint Bowyer, who is 22 points behind the cutoff line, he won't be in the postseason.

However, there's good news for Stewart this week. He has run at Atlanta Motor Speedway 24 times in his career and has three wins, including taking the checkered flag in this race last season. He also has 14 Top 10 finishes and an average finishing position of 11.6 in these races, meaning Stewart is sure to be a factor come Sunday night.

Bowyer is lined at +3500 this week, and he knows if he'll be in the Chase if he can win just one of these last two races.

There are still several drivers that know a win will likely put them in the second season. Denny Hamlin, who finally cracked the Top 10 for the first time in five races last week at the Irwin Tools Night Race, is +1200, while all three of Paul Menard, David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose are tremendous underdogs.

The favorites on Sunday are Edwards, Busch and Johnson, all at +800. Gordon, who has two wins this year and four at Atlanta Motor Speedway in his career, is the fourth choice at +900.

Cloud coverage should cool down what otherwise would be a hot holiday weekend in the Peach State. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s when the race drops the green flag, and they should dip into the low-70s by the conclusion of the race. Though there is going to be plenty of cloud coverage, there shouldn't be much of a chance of rain.

Driver Handicaps: Atlanta
By: Jeff Wackerlin

To help you make your fantasy racing picks for the AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 325-lap event.

Who's HOT at Atlanta
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with a 10.4 average finish.
• Tony Stewart has two wins and a 9.0 average finish in the last 10 races.
• Matt Kenseth has the best average (8.2) in the six races with the COT.
• Kurt Busch leads all drivers in wins (2) and laps led (385) with the COT.
• Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin each lead all drivers with 14 top fives.
• Juan Pablo Montoya has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts.

Keep an Eye on at Atlanta
• Brad Keselowski, Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Busch and Paul Menard will be racing for the Sprint Summer Showdown bonus.
• Kasey Kahne is second in laps led (221) with the COT at Atlanta.
• Denny Hamlin has combined to lead 129 laps in the last three races at Atlanta.
• Kevin Harvick will return in the same car that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway with in May.
• Carl Edwards has the best average finish (6.0) on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Brian Vickers has a 6.3 average finish in his last three starts at Atlanta.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the fifth-best driver rating at Atlanta since 2005.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in the last two races of the season.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Matt Kenseth
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Craig Moore: Brad Keselowski
Steve Blevins: Jeff Gordon
John Singler: Tony Stewart
Ricky Hamber: Kyle Busch

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Atlanta unless noted)

1. Kyle Busch: 11.2 average finish in six starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Coming off third top 10 in 13 starts; Winner of the 2008 spring race; Fifth-best average finish (11.2) in the six races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 318) that he finished second with at Pocono Raceway last month.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Three-time winner; Coming off 10th top five in 19 starts; Third-best average finish (8.5) in the last 10 races; Best driver rating in the last 12 races; 12.4 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 650) that he last drove to a fourth-place finish at Pocono Raceway in June.

3. Matt Kenseth: Leads all drivers with a 7.3 average finish in the last 10 races; Best average finish (8.2) in the six races with the COT; Second-best average finish (7.6) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 787) in the AdvoCare 500.

4. Carl Edwards: Three-time winner; Finished second in this event last year; Nine top 10s in 13 starts; Third-best driver rating in the last 12 races; Leads all drivers with a 6.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 768) that he last finished 14th with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

5. Kevin Harvick: 33rd-place finish in this event last year snapped streak of three consecutive top 10s; 20.5 average finish in 20 starts; Led 66 laps and finished second in this event on 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 353) that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway with in May.

6. Jeff Gordon: Tied with Mark Martin for most top fives (14) and top 10s (23) among active full-time drivers; Second-best average finish (8.4) in the last 10 races; Third-best average finish (9.2) in the six races with the COT Fourth-best driver rating in the last 12 races.

7. Ryan Newman: 14.0 average finish and two top 10s in four starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Scored fourth top 10s in previous 14 starts with Penske Racing.

8. Kurt Busch: First in laps led (385) and Fourth in average finish (10.5) in the six races with the COT; Third-best average finish (8.2) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 750) that he finished fourth with in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 13.2 average finish in six starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Scored one win and nine top 10s in previous 17 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; Fifth-best average finish (12.4) in the last 10 races; Fifth-best driver rating in the last 12 races; Seventh-best average finish (11.2) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.

10. Tony Stewart: Defending race winner; Win was third in 24 starts; 8.3 average finish in four starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Fourth-best average finish (9.0) in the last 10 races; races; Second-best average finish (8.7) in the six races with the COT; Second-best driver rating in the last 12 races; Fifth-best average finish (10.2) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 591) that he finished second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with and 17th in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

11. Brad Keselowski: 30.5 average finish in two starts; Best finish came in this event last year in 25th; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 755) that he finished 25th with at Michigan International Speedway in June.

12. Clint Bowyer: Finished seventh in this event last year for fifth top 10 in 10 starts; Four laps led in last five starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 368) that he last finished eighth with at Michigan International Speedway last month.

13. Denny Hamlin: Won the pole and led 74 laps in this event last year up until engine failure; Has combined to lead 129 laps in last three events; 18.4 average finish in 11 starts; Fourth-best average finish (9.2) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2011.

14. AJ Allmendinger: Sixth-place finish in the 2010 spring race is only top 10 in six starts; 15.2 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 752) that he last finished 22nd with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

15. Kasey Kahne: Last of two wins came in this event in 2009; Has combined to lead 220 laps in last three events; 17.1 average finish in 14 starts; Second in laps led (221) in the six races with the COT.

16. Greg Biffle: 36th-place finish in this event last year raised finishing average to 16.3 in 16 starts; Last of nine top 10s came in the 2010 spring race in eighth.

17. Martin Truex Jr: 19.5 average finish in two starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Two top 10s came in previous 10 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc./Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.

18. Joey Logano: Has yet to finish inside the top 20 in four starts; 28.5 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 319) that he won the pole and finished 26th with at Pocono Raceway in August.

19. Mark Martin: Won the pole in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in the 2009 spring race; Best finish, and only top 20 with HMS, came in this event in 2009 in fifth; Two wins came with Roush Racing in 1991 and 1994; Tied with Jeff Gordon for most top fives (14) and top 10s (23) among active full-time drivers.

20. Paul Menard: Last of two top 10s came in the 2010 spring race in fifth; 22.0 average finish in nine starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 364) that he won the Brickyard 400 with last month.

NASCAR stops in Atlanta Sunday night
By: Brian Graham

More Chase for the Cup spots look to be clinched as NASCAR races under the lights for the second straight weekend on Sunday, this time at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the AdvoCare 500. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick are all assured places among the 12-driver Chase, and five others can clinch their spots Sunday as well, one week before the regular season wraps up Sept. 10.

The quad-oval Atlanta Motor Speedway was built in 1960, but was reconfigured in 1997 to its current 1.54-mile length. All turns are 24 degrees and the straightaways measure 0.44 miles at the front and 0.34 miles on the backstretch, both banking at five degrees.

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) - Johnson’s victory drought is up to 16 races now, but he’s certainly heating up for the Chase portion of the schedule with top-5 finishes in five of his past seven races. He has also torn up this Labor Day weekend race recently with top-3s in six of his past eight starts, including victories in 2004 and 2007. At 8-to-1, these could be the most favorable odds Johnson receives for the rest of the season.

Jeff Gordon (8/1) - He’s one of the favorites in this race because of four career AMS victories (1995, 1998, 1999, 2003) and 14 top-5s at this track. Gordon has also had a nice ride in his past dozen races this season, with an average finish of 6.8 and top-10s in nine of these 12 starts. His odds aren’t wonderful, but he’s still a strong play.

Tony Stewart (10/1) - Last year’s Labor Day weekend winner has flourished in Atlanta with three victories (2002, 2006 and 2010) and top-10s in 13 of 18 starts at AMS since 2002. However, he is still looking for his first win this season, and only has two top-5 finishes all year. Because of this, don’t place too large a wager for Stewart to dominate in Atlanta again.

Kasey Kahne (20/1) - At 20-to-1, Kahne presents good value with two wins and six top-5s in his AMS career. However, his seven Labor Day weekend starts have been all over the place with a victory in 2009, two other top-10s and four finishes of 32nd or worse. He’s been pretty good lately, finishing 13th or better in five of his past eight starts, and could be worth a Unit or two as a longshot.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Last week’s winner continues to see his odds fall after a stellar summer, which includes four straight top-3 finishes and top-10s in seven of his past nine starts. He has to cool down sometime, and since he only finished 25th and 36th in two career races at AMS, there are better options than Keselowski at 12-to-1.

Carl Edwards (8/1) - He lost this race to Tony Stewart by 1.3 seconds last year, placing in the top-3 for the fifth time (two wins, two runner-ups, one third) in seven Atlanta Labor Day weekend races. He hasn’t been strong in recent weeks though, with an average finish of 16.6 in his past eight races. The 8-to-1 odds are too small to place a large wager on.

NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings

This Week's Race: Advocare 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

Practice Notes - Atlanta
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Charlotte*
1 Tony Stewart 10/1 14th 1st 20th 17th
Notes: Three-time winner; best 10 consecutive lap average in practice. Using Las Vegas chassis.

2 Brad Keselowski 15/1 1st 4th 14th 19th
Notes: Top overall performer in all practice session categories; hottest current driver last four weeks.

3 Matt Kenseth 7/1 12th 12th 6th 14th
Notes: Eight top-five finishes in 22 career starts with 13.0 average; led most laps at Charlotte.

4 Carl Edwards 6/1 15th 7th 7th 16th
Notes: Three-time winner with four other top-five finishes in 13 starts; using fifth-place Kansas car.

5 Clint Bowyer 30/1 3rd 3rd 2nd 15th
Notes: Career best of sixth-place on four occasions in 10 starts; using eighth-place Michigan car.

6 Kyle Busch 8/1 19th 9th 3rd 32nd
Notes: 2008 winner; chassis will make second start, the first was a runner-up finish at Pocono.

7 Jeff Gordon 10/1 27th 1st 5th 20th
Notes: Four-time winner with the last coming in 2003; 10.1 average finish over his last 20 starts.

8 Jimmie Johnson 8/1 9th 33rd 17th 28th
Notes: Three-time winner with the last coming in 2007; using fourth-place Pocono chassis this week.

9 Kurt Busch 13/1 20th 11th 10th 4th
Notes: Three-time winner, including two of the last four; returns same car from Coca-Cola 600.

10 Kevin Harvick 15/1 26th 19th 21st 1st
Notes: Won 2001 event in third start of career; using his winning Coca-Cola 600 chassis this week.

Note: * Results from the Coca-Cola 600 held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 29, 2011, the last high banked 1.5-mile track ran at. Earlier races on the sister tracks of Las Vegas and Texas are also a good barometer to use for handicapping Sunday’s race.

NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle

Every race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series means a lot, but with only two races until the field is set for NASCAR’s Chase for Championship, Sunday’s AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway means so much more.

There are only two more chances for Wildcard wins and two chances for Chase bonus points. After the Chase field is set, all drivers will have their points reset to 2,000, but only the top 10 will earn three bonus points for each regular season win. Currently, Kyle Busch leads with four wins and 12 bonus points.

Only six bonus points, three per win, remain. And this week’s favorite wants his share. Jimmie Johnson wants to reassert himself as the guy to beat. His steady climb in the last few weeks is evidence that he’s ready to win an historic sixth consecutive championship. But Johnson isn’t focused on the big picture, his attention is on each and every race, starting with a win at Atlanta and three more precious bonus points this weekend.

“The success we've had over the last five years doesn't guarantee anything for this year's Chase so we're living in the moment,” Johnson told reporters. “We're living in the now, worried about what we need to do today to win races.”

Johnson has three wins at Atlanta, the highest driver rating and the highest average finish among the top 10 drivers in points. He finished third here in the fall and wants to improve on that finish Sunday night.

“I would love to have another win for the bonus points and also what it does for the team moral, the confidence it gives the race team moving forward,” Johnson said. “Any momentum you can build now is very helpful in the Chase. I say that in the back of my mind. I think of years where we've entered the Chase pretty far off, much further off than what some critics say where we are now and we still won the championship. So it's not that you have to win but there's nothing bad that comes from it and we're here to win the race this weekend."

Carl Edwards hopes to score a much needed win Sunday. He’s secured a spot in the Chase and is in the thick of the hunt. But with only one victory this season, he knows the opportunity to earn bonus points is nearly over.

“Since we’re locked in the Chase winning is all that matters right now,” Edwards told the media.

Edwards is tied with Johnson with three wins at Atlanta and, while Johnson finished third in the fall, Edwards came home in second.

Kyle Busch is a sure bet to spoil everyone’s party this weekend. He’s hot and cold at Atlanta. He has a win in the spring race in 2008, but has an average finish of 17.3. He’s the hottest driver going in the last few races and could easily steal the show. But his history at Atlanta keeps him out of the favorites spot this week.

This week’s primetime matchup pits Kurt Busch against Tony Stewart. They have been struggling lately but both have three wins each at Atlanta. The edge goes to Stewart, however. While he has had a terrible year and would be a surprise winner Sunday, he did go to Victory Lane at Atlanta in this race last year and should at least finish ahead of Kurt.

Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with four wins at Atlanta, while Matt Kenseth has never won there. Both drivers are capable of winning Sunday but Kenseth has shown more consistency this season and is looking for a good finish, while Gordon has been more of a risk taker. Look for Kenseth to finish ahead for Gordon.

Wildcard watch: After Richmond the top 10 drivers will set up the first portion of the 12-driver Chase field. Spots No. 11 and No. 12 will go to those drivers with the most wins, provided they are inside the Top 20.

Currently, Brad Keselowski (three wins) and Denny Hamlin (one win) reside in the two Wildcard spots. But don’t count out Kasey Kahne. He’s within striking distance and has two wins at Atlanta, the last coming just two years ago.

Bottom line: Fourteen races at Atlanta have been won from the pole. The last to do so was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Both races last season were won from the second starting position. Fifty-nine of the 103 races at Atlanta have been won from the first five starting positions.

Favorites:

Jimmie Johnson (+800)
Carl Edwards (+800)
Kyle Busch (+800)

AdvoCare 500 NASCAR Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz

Labor Day weekend in sports mean so many things. College football is back. The NFL is right around the corner. And the boys of NASCAR are about set to begin their version of the playoffs.

On Sunday night at 7:46 (ET), some of the best drivers in the world will engage in NASCAR betting action at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the AdvoCare 500, the next-to-last race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup. TV coverage is provided by ESPN.

There are really only a few drivers that are sweating their spots in the Chase for the Sprint Cup right now. We fully expect to see 10 drivers locked up in their Chase bids after this race. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon have already punched their tickets into the postseason, and Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. should all get in with this race.

One more driver will clinch a Wild Card slot. There are a slew of drivers hoping that the hot racing of Brad Keselowski continues at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 2 Dodge was once at least +5000 on the NASCAR odds in every race. But thanks to the fact that he has won twice in his last four races and finished in the Top 3 in all four, he has improved to +1200 on the Don Best odds screen.

Keselowski needs just a handful of points to clinch at least a Wild Card berth, but he is still putting out the effort to close that 21-point gap between he and Tony Stewart in 10th place.

Stewart is also +1200 on the AdvoCare 500 odds and doesn't have a win to his credit on the season. If he falls behind Keselowski or Clint Bowyer, who is 22 points behind the cutoff line, he won't be in the postseason.

However, there's good news for Stewart this week. He has run at Atlanta Motor Speedway 24 times in his career and has three wins, including taking the checkered flag in this race last season. He also has 14 Top 10 finishes and an average finishing position of 11.6 in these races, meaning Stewart is sure to be a factor come Sunday night.

Bowyer is lined at +3500 this week, and he knows if he'll be in the Chase if he can win just one of these last two races.

There are still several drivers that know a win will likely put them in the second season. Denny Hamlin, who finally cracked the Top 10 for the first time in five races last week at the Irwin Tools Night Race, is +1200, while all three of Paul Menard, David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose are tremendous underdogs.

The favorites on Sunday are Edwards, Busch and Johnson, all at +800. Gordon, who has two wins this year and four at Atlanta Motor Speedway in his career, is the fourth choice at +900.

Cloud coverage should cool down what otherwise would be a hot holiday weekend in the Peach State. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s when the race drops the green flag, and they should dip into the low-70s by the conclusion of the race. Though there is going to be plenty of cloud coverage, there shouldn't be much of a chance of rain.