Advocare 500 Betting News and Notes

Driver Tale of the Tape at Atlanta

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

· Three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.0
· Average Running Position of 13.3, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.6, 10th-best
· 237 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· 881 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· 3,249 Laps in the Top 15 (71.0%), fifth-most
· 509 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Beautyrest Chevrolet)

· Three wins, four top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 17.2
· Average Running Position of 14.8, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 94.6, seventh-best
· 255 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 885 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· 2,628 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), 12th-most
· 461 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)

· One win, three top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 16.9
· Average Running Position of 13.9, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 92.8, ninth-best
· 217 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· 918 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.196 mph, ninth-fastest
· 2,751 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1%), 11th-most
· 446 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard ‘Race To Achieve’ Chevrolet)

· One win, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.5
· Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.3, eighth-best
· 223 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 944 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.204 mph, eighth-fastest
· 2,897 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), ninth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Subway Ford)

· Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 15.1
· Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
· Series-high 341 Fastest Laps Run
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.526 mph, third-fastest
· 3,484 Laps in the Top 15 (76.1%), third-most
· 479 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

· Five wins, 16 top fives, 25 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.9
· Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
· Driver Rating of 104.8, second-best
· 238 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.329 mph, fifth-fastest
· 3,765 Laps in the Top 15 (82.3%), second-most
· Series-high 549 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota)

· One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.2
· Average Running Position of 11.1, third-best
· Driver Rating of 99.7, fifth-best
· 241 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.527 mph, second-fastest
· 2,976 Laps in the Top 15 (70.0%), eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John's Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 19.2
· Driver Rating of 86.4, 13th-best
· 179 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 806 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· 400 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 11 top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.1
· Series-best Average Running Position of 8.0
· Series-best Driver Rating of 108.3
· 272 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 171.699 mph
· Series-high 4,043 Laps in the Top 15 (88.3%)
· 532 Quality Passes, second-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

· Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 18.6
· Driver Rating of 88.9, 12th-best
· 234 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 2,609 Laps in the Top 15 (57.0%), 13th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Home Depot Husky Toyota)

· Eight top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.7
· Average Running Position of 12.5, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.4, sixth-best
· 164 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· 919 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.263 mph, sixth-fastest
· 3,268 Laps in the Top 15 (71.4%), fourth-most
· 496 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Mark Martin (No. 14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Two wins, 14 top fives, 24 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 18.5
· Average Running Position of 16.0, 16th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.5, 17th-best
· 97 Fastest Laps Run, 15th-most
· 2,555 Laps in the Top 15 (55.8%), 14th-most
· 351 Quality Passes, 19th-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

· One top five, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 21.5
· Average Running Position of 11.9, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.8, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.355 mph, fourth-fastest
· 3,217 Laps in the Top 15 (75.7%), seventh-most
· 506 Quality Passes, fourth-most

AdvoCare 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It’s been a long time since we saw racing a on a high banked 1.5-mile track like we’ll see this Sunday night at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the AdvoCare 500. The 1.5-mile tracks litter the schedule more than any type, but it’s been since June 29 at Kentucky since one has been raced on, and it’s been since May 26 at Charlotte that a race has been run on a high banked track similar to Atlanta.

We can lump Las Vegas, Texas and Charlotte into the same group as Atlanta, and all of those races ran in the early portion of the season. So the question is, how much has changed from then to now? Are the results and data gained from early in the season still relevant now that so many other types of tracks have been run on with such a large gap in between on the schedule?

It’s probably a good idea to go with a 50-50 mindset on all of the questions. Keep what happened from March through May on the similar tracks in the back of your mind, while also staying in touch with what’s happening now, even though some of the tracks don’t apply. For instance, you can use what happened recently at the five races between Michigan, Pocono and Indianapolis just because of those tracks requiring pure horsepower that will applicable at a place like Atlanta.

We also have to acknowledge that the Toyota teams, most notably the Joe Gibbs racing cars, have gone through all kinds testing on their engines from early in the season -- when they dominated on the horsepower tracks -- to now, where the horsepower is a little less, but has more durability. The timeline for the Gibbs engines was to only be a two or three race experiment that would have the best performing and most durable engine ready for their cars in the Chase, where engine failure is not an option, at least if wanting to win a Championship.

So when we look at Las Vegas, where Matt Kenseth won, and Texas, where Kyle Busch won, we have to consider that these Gibbs cars aren’t the same. Kenseth also won on the flatter 1.5-mile tracks of Kansas and Kentucky. The Kentucky win for Kenseth came during their experimental stage with their engines.

When looking over the entire season of winners on tracks that can be scoured for details to help this week at Atlanta, the one name missing consistently is Jimmie Johnson. His four wins on the season have come between two wins at Daytona with a restrictor-plate, the short track at Martinsville and the fast track at Pocono. No wins on a 1.5-or 2-mile track during a season would be a first for the five-time champion over his 12-year career.

Johnson is a three-time winner at Atlanta with a 10.3 average finish. His last win there came in 2007, when he swept the season -- back when Atlanta had two races a season. He’s currently in a funk we have rarely seen out of Johnson, where he’s finished 36th or worse in his last two starts coming in. It was odd sight watching the No. 48 go around much of last week’s race at Bristol with no hood or fenders, feebly limping around the track to complete laps for position points.

While we should be dialing in on drivers on the upswing like Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr., or Kasey Kahne, for some reason, with everything looking bad for Johnson, Atlanta has the look of being a race he’ll challenge his team and himself to conquer. The motivation is simple: there are two races to go before the chase and Kenseth has passed Johnson with five wins on the season to his four, which means more bonus points to start the Chase. Johnson still leads the points at this juncture, but there is no way this team settles for mediocrity heading into the Chase on their quest to win their sixth Sprint Cup Championship.

The drivers that have to make an immediate impact for the final two weeks are Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon. All three have no wins on the season and sit 11-13 in points respectively, which means they would be out in the Chase started this week. Keselowski and Busch both dropped three positions last week at Bristol and will need good runs this week.

Gordon actually moved up a position last week and is 12 points away from passing Joey Logano in 10th-place. Gordon raced himself into the Chase last season with runner-up finishes at Atlanta and Richmond and will need a run similar this time around. This is the track where Gordon made his Cup debut in 1992, which also happened to be the final race of Richard Petty’s great career. He’s won at Atlanta five times over his career, the last coming in 2011.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
4) #5 Kasey Kahne (7/1)
5) #56 Martin Truex Jr. (18/1)

Driver Handicaps: Atlanta
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com brings you our weekly detailed analysis to help steer you toward Sunday night's AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Atlanta

• Jeff Gordon, winner of this event in 2011, has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts.
• Matt Kenseth has the best average finish (7.4) in the last 10 races.
• Three-time winner Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with an 11.1 average finish.
• Carl Edwards has posted an average finish of 8.1, including a win in 2008, in seven of the last 10 races where he's been running at the finish.
• Kurt Busch, who will be making his first track start with Furniture Row Racing, leads all drivers with 497 laps led in the last 10 races, which includes two wins.
• Defending race winner Denny Hamlin has posted a 4.5 average finish in his last two starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Atlanta

• Kasey Kahne (5.6), Martin Truex Jr. (6.0), Kevin Harvick (9.0), Jamie McMurray (11.4), Clint Bowyer (11.6), Joey Logano (13.0) and Aric Almirola each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2013.
• 2008 spring Atlanta winner Kyle Busch has posted one win and is third in laps led (263) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2013.
• Brad Keselowski has posted a 4.5 average finish in his last two starts at Atlanta.
• Paul Menard, who finished eighth last year at Atlanta, was among the 13 drivers that participated in the Goodyear Tire test earlier this month.
• Seven-time Atlanta pole winner Ryan Newman will be back in the same car he last finished sixth with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
• Mark Martin will make his second start in the No. 14 Chevrolet for the injured Tony Stewart.

Note: Sprint Cup Series teams will be running the same left-side tire code that they have run the last two seasons at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The right-side tire code is a new tire, and combines the compound that has recently been run at Kansas Speedway and Michigan International Speedway on the inside three inches of the tread, with the compound run at Atlanta for the last seasons across the rest of the tread. Thirteen drivers last tested this tire combination at Atlanta that included Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Paul Menard, David Ragan, David Reutimann, Martin Truex Jr. and J.J. Yeley.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Writer Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kasey Kahne
Pete Pistone: Jeff Gordon
Dustin Long: Jeff Gordon
John Singler: Matt Kenseth

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Atlanta unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Last of three wins came in the 2007 fall race; Crash in this event last year ended streak of two consecutive top-three finishes; Fourth among all drivers in average finish (9.2) and laps led (257) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 728) that he last finished second with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway after leading 73 laps.

Clint Bowyer: Finished 27th last year in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; Last of five top 10s (seventh) came in this event in 2010; 11.6 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 777) that he finished 20th with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Carl Edwards: Last of three top 10s came in the 2008 October race; Engine issues last year snapped streak of two consecutive top fives; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Tied for the fifth-best average finish (11.4) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 821) that he last finished 11th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May.

Kevin Harvick: Has finished ninth or better in six of the last eight races; Led 101 laps and finished fifth last season; Third-best average finish (9.0) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Won in the fourth race on 1.5-mile tracks, Charlotte Motor Speedway; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 391) that he last finished 17th with at Pocono Raceway in August.

Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Coming off fourth top 10 in 15 starts; Has combined to lead 85 laps in last two starts; Has posted one win, 263 laps led and a 17.2 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Matt Kenseth: Has finished ninth in last two starts; Leads all divers with a 7.4 average finish in the last 10 races; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Leads all drivers win wins (3), laps led (355) and is tied for the second-best average finish (6.0) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Making first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 13.1 average finish in eight starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Coming off 11th top 10 in 25 starts; 20.6 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 726) he won the pole and finished 12th with at Kentucky Speedway in June.

Kasey Kahne: Finished 23rd last season in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Last of two wins came in this event in 2009 with Richard Petty Motorsports; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Leads all drivers with a 5.6 average finish and is second in laps led (275) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 779) that he led 66 laps with en route to the win at Pocono Raceway.

Greg Biffle: 16.8 average finish in 18 starts; Last of nine top 10s (eighth) came in the 2010 spring race; 21.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 844) that he last finished 34th with at Kentucky Speedway.

Joey Logano: Coming off best finish (18th) in six starts; 13.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 862) in his first track start with Penske Racing.

Brad Keselowski: Has posted an average finish of 4.5 in last two starts; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; 17.4 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 861) in the AdvoCare 500.

Kurt Busch: Last of three wins came in the 2010 spring race with Penske Racing; Has finished 13th or better in nine of the last 10 races; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Making first track start with Furniture Row Racing; 16.2 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Jeff Gordon: Scored fifth win in this event in 2011; Finished second last year for 10th top 10 in last 13 races; 23.8 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Martin Truex Jr: Led 40 laps and finished fourth last year; 14.3 average finish in four starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Racing this weekend with a fracture of right wrist; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Tied for the second-best average finish (6.0) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Ryan Newman: Seven-time pole winner; Two top 10s (last in this event in 2010) in six starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; 16.4 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 748) that he last finished sixth with at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May.

Jamie McMurray: 20.5 average finish in 19 starts; Last of four top 10s came in the 2008 October race; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; Tied for the fifth-best average finish (11.4) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Paul Menard: 13.0 average finish in two starts with Richard Childress Racing; Coming off third top 10 in 11 starts; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; 16.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 403) that he finished 10th with in its last start on a 1.5-mile track, Kansas Speedway.

Aric Almirola: 26.5 average finish in two starts; Participated in the Goodyear confirmation test earlier this month; 15.8 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 855) that he finished 15th with at Kentucky Speedway in June.

Mark Martin: Martin will enter second race since taking over for the injured Tony Stewart; Coming off 24th top 10 (10th with Michael Waltrip Racing) in 52 starts; 17.8 average finish in four starts in races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will race the same car (chassis No. 736) that Stewart raced to a 20th-place finish at Kentucky Speedway.

Jeff Burton: Last of 14 top 10s (fourth) came in this event in 2010; 19.6 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 372) that he last finished eighth with at Michigan International Speedway in August.

AdvoCare 500 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

It's been nine races and nearly seven years since Jimmie Johnson last won at Atlanta – and he's yet to win on any of the 1.5-mile tracks already run on this year – but he's still our choice as the top-rated driver to win Sunday night's AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Johnson was already considered the favorite to win this week, but his chances to do so were improved even more after two stellar practices sessions on Saturday where he showed he was fast in all situations. In the early session, Johnson had the sixth-fastest single lap (182.213 mph), while also having the second-fastest 10-consecutive lap average. During happy hour, he had the fastest lap (186.447) and third-best 10-consecutive lap average.

After successive weeks of finishing 36th-place or worse, we think Johnson and his entire crew -- led by chief Chad Knaus -- are going to take things up an extra notch this week. There will be no more talk from the team about being fortunate to have such a big lead in points and simply getting ready for the Chase. Matt Kenseth just passed them in season wins last week, which means more bonus points for them when the Chase starts. That doesn't sit well with this crew.

Although Johnson hasn't won on any of these types of tracks this season, including the 2-mile tracks, this has traditionally been his best type over his career. At Atlanta, he's a three-time winner with an 11.1 average finish.

When Carl Edwards came out blazing with fast lap times on Friday, we reserved judgment on him until Saturday's practices. On Friday, he used mock-qualifying trim in the first practice sessions to roll out the second-fastest lap, and then followed it up by qualifying with the second-fastest lap to start Sunday's race on the front row.

When Saturday came around for practices with race trim, Edwards went out and posted the fastest lap on his first lap ran. Then when happy hour was over, the time charts showed Edwards with the fastest 10-consecutive lap average making him a quality contender for Johnson to deal with on Sunday. Edwards is a three-time winner at Atlanta and is using a chassis that last ran at Charlotte (11th) and recently tested at Atlanta.

Five-time Atlanta winner Jeff Gordon needs to duplicate what he did there last when he finished second and maybe even better to follow up what he did in 2011, which is win. He needs some Chase help, and we think he'll make his own luck with a good run. He didn't have any blazing fast single-lap speeds like Johnson or Edwards had, but he was very good on the long runs, and they'll be plenty of those in this 500-mile race.

Gordon doesn't have a top-five this season on a 1.5-mile track. But what we like about Gordon a little more here is his craftiness of being a veteran and understanding how to save tires on Atlanta's worn out asphalt. There aren't many tracks out there we can say that about because the tracks keep repaving and taking away some of their character. It's been 16 years since Atlanta has been touched, and there's definitely something there to the correlation between Gordon, excellence and the surface.

Kevin Harvick is a driver that should be considered Sunday night, as well. Michigan was the last big horsepower track run at and he finished second. The last high-banked 1.5-mile track run on was at Charlotte and Harvick won that race. He hasn't won at Atlanta since his rookie year in 2001, but it was encouraging to see him with the fastest 10-consecutive laps average in Saturday's early practice session.

Kasey Kahne is also going to be somewhere in the mix Sunday night. He was fast in practice, and he's been good on the 1.5-mile tracks all season -- compiling three runner-ups in five attempts. We also have to like his chances because he's bringing the same chassis that won at Pocono last month and finished second at Las Vegas in March.

This will be an interesting race because it will be run in three stages where there is daylight, dusk and night fall, which creates three vastly different type of conditions for the crews to make adjustments on the fly. After two weeks of misery, we think the No. 48 crew will be up for the challenge most.