Air Guard 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
This Saturday night at Richmond will not feature the mad dash to finish in the race to the Chase like we seen over the last few years because the field is basically set. Two spots are mathematically open in the 12-driver field with five drivers eligible, but it would take some serious craziness to happen for the two that are currently in, Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer, to miss out. All Biffle has to do is finish 42nd or better while Bowyer has to finish 28th or better. No driver in the short "Race to the Chase" history has overcome such a deficit coming to the final race to make it.
For whatever it’s worth, just because they are still mathematically alive, Ryan Newman is 117 points out, Jamie McMurray 128 points out and Mark Martin is 147 points out.
This week's race give the Chase drivers one last chance to gain bonus points for the 10-race Chase for the Championship. Every driver in the Chase will be set at 5,000 points and will have 10 bonus points added on for each of their wins during the first 26 races of the season. Currently, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin would be given 50 bonus points for their five wins on the season followed by Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch with three wins each.
We get kind of a head start on handicapping this race because we have already seen races run on the similar tracks of Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire this season. The three tracks, while all different in configuration, usually mirror each other in set-ups because of the relatively flat banking. A driver that usually does well at one will do the same on the others.
The driver that stands out the most from his first go-around on the three tracks is Jeff Gordon who managed to finish within the top-four of them all. In fact Gordon probably should have won at Phoenix and Richmond, but got out drag raced at the start of the green-white-checker finish. He hasn’t won since the spring Texas race last year, but could be in line to break the winless streak Saturday night. He’ll be using his fourth-place New Hampshire chassis from late June, a car that also led 92 laps and finished third at Martinsville.
Kyle Busch has been absolutely insane at Richmond over his short career while driving the old car, the car of tomorrow, Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing. It doesn’t matter, Busch is going to finish well and he’s got the tenacity down the stretch of races that gets him wins in the crunch as was the case when he played Gordon for the win in May’s Richmond race. In 11 starts at Richmond, Busch has two wins, three runner-ups, four other top fives to go along with his worst of 15th and 20th.
Busch’s teammate Denny Hamlin has been almost as good with five top-six finishes in nine starts, including a win in the race last season. Hamlin’s edge comes from being very familiar with his home track and having all the Richmond rowdies cheering for him. Despite being in a prolonged slump, Hamlin is still someone you don’t want to bet against on this track.
Jimmie Johnson won the race on this type of track at New Hampshire, his last win of the season, a stretch of eight races. He also finished third at Phoenix and 10th in the first Richmond race. He’ll be using the same car from that first Richmond race this week. Overall, Johnson has three wins at Richmond with the last coming in this race two seasons ago.
All three of the Childress drivers figure to fare prominently in this race just because of how well they have done on the three similar tracks. In the May race, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished third and fourth respectively with Clint Bowyer finishing 12th. All three are past winners at Richmond with Burton having some home state love on his side as well. Harvick finished fifth at New Hampshire and 13th at Phoenix and will be using the same car he raced in all three races this week. Burton has opted to use his runner-up Dover chassis this week.
Look for all three cars to compete with Bowyer taking things easy to not hurt his chances of finishing worse than 28th. Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart are also drivers to take notice of. Stewart is getting really hot right now following his first win of the season last week at Atlanta while Newman has been hot ion these tracks all season. Newman took his turn at beating Gordon off the line at Phoenix and won the checkers and also had a strong sixth-place finish at Loudon. Newman has one Richmond win over his career and Stewart has three.
I’ll be looking for Gordon to stand strong this week and not be bullied around. It’s amazing that he has only won twice at Richmond in 35 starts with the last coming in 2000. He’s currently on a seven race streak of finishing no worse than ninth at Richmond and I like the trend to keep going. Look for Gordon to match Stewart’s win last week and give himself 10 bonus points to start the Chase.
Top-5 Finish prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
5) #31 Jeff Burton (15/1)
Odds & Ends - Richmond
Richmond International Raceway Data
Race #: 26 of 36 (9-11-10)
Track Size: .75 miles
# Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
# Frontstretch: 1,290 feet
# Backstretch: 860 feet
Driver Rating at Richmond
Denny Hamlin 117.4
Kyle Busch 114.1
Kevin Harvick 114.0
Jeff Gordon 99.5
Tony Stewart 98.2
Kurt Busch 95.4
Mark Martin 93.9
Ryan Newman 93.8
Clint Bowyer 93.7
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 88.8
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Richmond.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin (126.808 mph, 21.292 secs.)
2009 race winner: Denny Hamlin (96.601 mph, 9-12-09)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (129.983, 20.772 seconds, 5-14-04)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph, 9-6-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 85-95 laps, based on fuel mileage
Driver Highlights - Richmond
Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Hamburger Helper Chevrolet)
# 12th in points entering Richmond
# One win, one top five, four top 10s
# Average finish of 10.2
# Average Running Position of 11.8, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.7, ninth-best
# 511 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.616 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,676 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), 10th-most
# 295 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
# Sixth in points
# One win, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.4
# Average Running Position of 15.1, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best
# 495 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# 2,884 Laps in the Top 15 (65.4%), seventh-most
# 270 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
# Eighth in points
# One win, three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 17.8
# Average Running Position of 13.5, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 95.4, sixth-best
# 262 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 495 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.817 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,810 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), ninth-most
# 293 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Doublemint Toyota)
# Third in points
# Two wins, nine top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 5.5
# Average Running Position of 7.2, third-best
# Driver Rating of 114.1, second-best
# 336 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.104 mph, second-fastest
# 3,937 Laps in the Top 15 (89.3%), second-most
# 309 Quality Passes, second-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
# 19th in points
# Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.2
# Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
# 252 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# 591 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.621 mph, ninth-fastest
# 2,358 Laps in the Top 15 (53.5%), 12th-most
# 243 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Second in points
# Two wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
# Average finish of 14.2
# Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 99.5, fourth-best
# 239 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.679 mph, seventh-fastest
# 3,138 Laps in the Top 15 (71.2%), sixth-most
# 235 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# 10th in points
# One win, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 8.8
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.5
# Series-best Driver Rating of 117.4
# Series-high 354 Fastest Laps Run
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.171 mph
# 3,445 Laps in the Top 15 (95.4%), fourth-most
# 265 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
# NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader
# One win, five top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 12.1
# Average Running Position of 6.8, second-best
# Driver Rating of 114.0, third-best
# 353 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.093 mph, third-fastest
# Series-high 4,130 Laps in the Top 15 (93.7%)
# Series-high 355 Quality Passes
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
# Seventh in points
# Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 17.8
# Driver Rating of 87.0, 12th-best
# 137 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 2,343 Laps in the Top 15 (53.1%), 13th-most
# 246 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
# 18th in points
# One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 18.2
# Average Running Position of 16.4, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
# 234 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# 548 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.606 mph, 11th-fastest
# 2,539 Laps in the Top 15 (57.6%), 11th-most
# 251 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST Auto Parts Chevrolet)
# 15th in points
# One win, 17 top fives, 27 top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 12.0
# Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.9, seventh-best
# 144 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.710 mph, sixth-fastest
# 2,864 Laps in the Top 15 (64.9%), eighth-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 Wix Filters Chevrolet)
# 13th in points
# One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.4
# Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.8, eighth-best
# 3,618 Laps in the Top 15 (82.0%), third-most
# 292 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
# Fourth in points
# Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.9
# Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.2, fifth-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.874 mph, fourth-fastest
# 3,175 Laps in the Top 15 (72.0%), fifth-most
# 288 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Driver Handicaps: Richmond
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Richmond Int'l Raceway for Saturday's Air Guard 400 for one last race before the Chase starts. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.
Who's HOT at Richmond
• Kyle Busch has two wins in his last three starts and leads all drivers with a 5.5 average finish.
• Jeff Gordon is the only driver to finish in the top 10 in the seven races with the COT.
• Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner and has led the most laps with the COT (861).
• Kevin Harvick has one win and 10 top 10s in his last 11 starts.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (3) in the seven races with the COT.
• Tony Stewart has an 8.3 average finish and the fifth-best driver rating in the last 11 races.
Keep an Eye on at Richmond
• Jeff Burton has three top 10s in his last four starts at Richmond.
• Clint Bowyer has a 10.0 average finish with the COT at Richmond.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in his three Richmond starts with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Mark Martin posted four consecutive top fives at Richmond prior to his 25th-place finish in May.
• Carl Edwards is coming off first top five in 12 starts at Richmond.
• Juan Pablo Montoya's sixth-place finish in May was his second top 10 in the last three Richmond races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., who has a 20.3 average finish in his last seven starts, is a three-time winner at Richmond.
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Richmond Int'l Raceway unless noted)
1. Kevin Harvick: Coming off 12th top 10 in 19 starts; Won the 2006 fall race; Sixth-best average finish (10.7) in seven starts with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 304) that finished third with at Richmond in May.
2. Jeff Gordon: Only driver to finish in the top 10 in all seven races with the COT; Second in laps led (648) with the COT; Combined to lead 337 laps in last three races; Two-time winner with last coming in 2000; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 542) that he finished third with at Martinsville and fourth at New Hampshire.
3. Kyle Busch: Coming off second win and third top five in the last three races; Led 226 laps in May; Second-best average finish (9.7) in seven starts with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 277) that he finished 23rd with at Pocono in August.
4. Tony Stewart: Third-best average finish (5.8) in the seven races with the COT; 14.0 average finish in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Three-time winner with last coming in the 2002 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 525) that he finished 23rd with at Richmond in May.
5. Carl Edwards: Coming off first top five in 12 starts; Fifth-place finish in May was fourth top 10 in 12 starts; 17.1 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 570) that he raced at Richmond in May.
6. Jeff Burton: Coming off 15th top 10 in 32 starts; Fourth-place finish in May was fourth top 10 in 12 starts with Richard Childress Racing; 14.7 average finish in seven starts with the COT; Will drive the same car (chassis No. 302) that he finished second with at Dover in May.
7. Jimmie Johnson: Three-time winner in the seven races with the COT; Last win came in the 2008 fall race; Ninth-best average finish (12.9) in seven starts with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 590) that he finished ninth with at Martinsville in March.
8. Kurt Busch: Coming off worst finish in last four starts in 18th; Four top 10s in nine starts with Penske Racing; Finished second in this event last year for sixth top 10 in 19 overall starts; Won the 2005 summer race with Roush Racing; Tied for 10th-best average finish (14.0) in seven starts with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 702) that he won the All-Star race with in May.
9. Matt Kenseth: Nine top-10 finishes in 21 starts; Has finished outside the top 10 in his last six starts; 21.7 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 698) in the Air Guard 400.
10. Denny Hamlin: Defending event winner; Led 299 from the third starting position in that event; Lap leader (861) in the seven races with the COT; Fourth-best average finish (8.9) with the COT; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 276) that he finished 15th with at Indianapolis.
11. Greg Biffle: Five consecutive top-10 finishes from fall 2004 to fall 2006 are only top 10s; 19.7 average finish in seven starts with the COT; 13th-place finish in this even last year is best with COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 634) that he finished 16th with at New Hampshire in June.
12. Clint Bowyer: Winner of this event in 2008; Scored fourth top 10 in this event last year with a sixth-place finish; Fifth-best average finish (10.0) in seven starts with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 303) that he finished fourth with at Bristol.
13. Ryan Newman: Seventh-best average finish (11.1) in the seven races with the COT; Coming off third consecutive top 10 (all with Stewart-Haas); 11 top 10s in 17 overall starts.
14. Jamie McMurray: Finished 19th in first track start in an Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet; Three top 10s in 15 starts; Best finish came in the 2009 spring race with Roush Racing in seventh; 28.0 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1007) that he raced at Richmond in May; This vas tested last month at Gresham Motorsports Park.
15. Mark Martin: 25th-place finish in May ended a streak of four consecutive top fives; 11.3 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Eighth-best average finish (11.4) in the seven races with the COT; Scored one win (1990) and 22 top 10s with Roush Racing from 1988-2006; This weekend's chassis (No. 561) was tested at Pikes Peak International Raceway; This is the same car he raced at Richmond in May.
16. David Reutimann: Led race-high 104 laps en route to track best ninth-place finish in this even in 2008; Started second and finished 15th in May; 19.4 average finish in seven starts.
17. Juan Pablo Montoya: Coming off best finish in seven starts in sixth; Finish was second top 10; Best finish in the Summer race came last year in 19th; Has yet to lead a lap; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 1005) that he finished 36th with at Martinsville.
18. Kasey Kahne: 19.9 average finish in the seven races with the COT; Won from the pole in the 2005 after leading a race high 242 laps; Victory was first in Sprint Cup Series and is one of five top-10 finishes at track; Last top 10 came in the 2008 spring race; Finished 21st in May in first track start behind the wheel of a Ford.
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 19.8 average finish in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Led 90 laps en route to a fourth-place finish in the 2008 summer race; Captured three wins and nine top 10s in previous 17 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; Will race the same car (chassis No. 586) that he finished 32nd with at Richmond in May after a cut tire forced an unscheduled pit stop.
20. Martin Truex Jr: Coming off second top 10 (seventh) in nine starts; Finish came in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; 18.9 average finish in the seven races with the COT.
NASCAR Betting: Battle Over Bonus Points at Richmond
By Greg Engle
It comes down to this. One more event before the Top 12 drivers race for the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship.
The Top 12 have been pretty much decided, only Greg Biffle in 11th and Clint Bowyer in 12th have a chance of not making it in. But they would have to fail to show up in Richmond for Saturday night’s Air Guard 400 in order to miss out.
For the last several weeks, the drivers in the top dozen have almost been taking it easy as they tried to protect their positions for the Chase. But now that they’re locked in, it will be time to go for the win. Or, in the case of the Top 12, go after those all important bonus points.
After Saturday night, the 12 drivers who qualify for the Chase will have their point totals re-set to 5,000. They then will get 10 bonus points for each pre-Chase victory. Those new totals establish the Chase seeding.
How crucial are the bonus points?
Right now, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have won five races apiece, giving each 50 points. They’ll start the Chase seeded 1-2 (Johnson gets the top seed via the traditional tiebreaker of next-best finishes).
Jeff Gordon, meanwhile, is currently second in the points, but has no wins. Should he fail to win Saturday night, he will start at the bottom of the group along with several others. Ahead of him will be Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, currently tied with three wins apiece. Should one of those drivers win Saturday night, they would be only 10 points behind Johnson and Hamlin.
Bottom line: look for mayhem to break out Saturday night.
Rather than the last few weeks of holding back, those inside the Chase to go for broke and while those outside will try to make a statement by winning. From here on out, like Vince Lombardi said winning isn't everything, it's the only thing.
One driver who knows how to race through the mayhem, is veteran two-time champion and this week’s favorite Tony Stewart, who pretty much sums up the feelings of all those inside the Top 12.
"I'm racing 100 percent pressure-free because we have absolutely nothing to lose. We can't be bumped out of the Chase,” Stewart said. “We can finish 43rd and it's a non-event. Our goal is to try and do what we can to win and get those 10 extra bonus points. That's our focus. It's all or nothing for us. We're not going to throw away a car trying to make a stupid mistake while trying to get those 10 points, but our goal is to go out and try to win the race.”
The driver who could be Stewart’s main competition this week is Kyle Busch. Busch won here in the spring and won the spring race in 2009.
As for matchups, Kevin Harvick will try to outpace the field but should at least finish ahead of his teammate Jeff Burton. And while Clint Bowyer is tiptoeing around the track, look for Greg Biffle to stay out front of him.
Picks:
Tony Stewart (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+400)
Carl Edwards (+1200)
Practice Notes - Richmond
By Micah Roberts
Top 8 Driver Ratings Following All Practice and Qualifying Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualifying Spring Results*
1. Jeff Gordon 12/1 19th 16th 22nd 2nd
Finished in top-four on similar tracks of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire this year.
2. Carl Edwards 15/1 4th 1st 1st 5th
Terrific practices using same fifth-place chassis from spring; Roush team hard charging.
3. Jimmie Johnson 6/1 1st 21st 11th 10th
Three-time Richmond winner; using same car from May 1 race, broke slump last week.
4. Kyle Busch 7/2 15th 36th 32nd 1st
Won two of last three at Richmond; nine top-five finishes in 11 career starts.
5. Kevin Harvick 12/1 10th 8th 20th 3rd
2006 winner; using same chassis that had top-five finishes at New Hampshire and Richmond.
6. Clint Bowyer 25/1 1st 12th 4th 12th
Using fourth-place Bristol car; only two career wins have come on the similar tracks of New Hampshire and Richmond.
7. Ryan Newman 30/1 2nd 14th 23rd 8th
2003 winner with an average finish of 11.4 in 17 starts. Won on similar Phoenix track in April.
8. Tony Stewart 12/1 25th 6th 15th 23rd
Three-time winner at Richmond with four runner-up finishes; using same car from May race.
* Race results from May 1 Richmond race
Note: There were only two scheduled practices Friday followed by qualifying. The first practice in race trim was the more important of the two.
I finally climbed back to the top of both of my fantasy leagues but I am running out of B and C group drivers quickly. I can't believe Kesolowski is a fucking B group driver, what a joke. I got Hamlin, Bowyer, Earnhardt Jr. and Menard for tonight, wish me luck!