AMP Energy Juice 500
By Micah Roberts
Last week’s race at Martinsville wasn’t supposed to be a race where drivers behind points leader Jimmie Johnson could make up some ground in the Chase for the Championship because of how good Johnson has been there over the years, but it was. Denny Hamlin won for the third straight time at Martinsville and with Johnson finishing fifth, Hamlin was able to chop Johnson’s lead over him from 41 down to a mere six points.
Also gaining ground was Kevin Harvick, who had his best career finish at Martinsville with third-place. By leading a lap, while Johnson never did, and finishing two positions higher than Johnson, Harvick cut his deficit from 77 points to 62 with four races remaining as they head to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend.
Talladega was to be the track that some of the Johnson chasers could really make their move, not Martinsville. Now we have the stage set for a race that could ultimately determine who wins the championship. The volatile nature of Talladega can wipe out any driver at any time like no other track on the circuit. Drivers can’t simply sit back and play it safe because danger lurks everywhere on the monstrous 2.66-mile beast.
Johnson has had success at Talladega in the past, but the Hendrick restrictor-plate program isn’t what it used to be and he should have cause for concern this week. In the first go around at Talladega in April, Johnson finished 31st while Harvick won. Harvick also went on to win the next plate race at Daytona in July showing that he is the driver to beat this week.
Should the same results occur this week that happened in April, both Hamlin and Harvick would leap frog Johnson in points and have a substantial lead. Johnson gained only 75 points with his finish while Hamlin gained 165 points for finishing fourth and Harvick 190 for winning. Kyle Busch could realistically get back into the Chase with a good run; he’s currently 172 points behind and always runs well in plate races.
The strategies for the contenders this week will be completely different. Hamlin has said jokingly that he is just going to follow Johnson for the entire race just to ensure that he has the same fate of Johnson to stay close in points. Johnson will likely lag behind all the cars to try and stay out of trouble and then make a move with five laps remaining. Harvick will be looking to lead the most laps and get the bonus 10 points for doing so, along with going after the win which his car and skills are very capable of. Hamlin has a good enough program to compete for the most laps bonus and also go for the win.
The bonus of leading laps will have some takers outside the chase, most notably Jamie McMurray who has been just a small notch below Harvick in plate races this year. McMurray won the Daytona 500 and finished runner-up to Harvick at Talladega.
Jeff Burton, Harvick's teammate, has equally good parts and should run well as he did at Talladega in April when he led the most laps. Look for both of these drivers to contend for the win late. Burton finished fifth in the last plate race run at Daytona.
Juan Pablo Montoya has the same plate program as his teammate McMurray and should run a good race this week as well. He finished third at Talladega in April and has a career best finish of second-place in 2008.
For NASCAR’s sake with it’s declining ratings, having a real chase down the stretch with Johnson chasing others would be a real boost. In order for that to happen, Johnson will have to falter this week. The three remaining tracks after Talladega are all tracks Johnson fares well at. I’ll be looking for Harvick and Hamlin to do very well this week with Johnson finishing in the high teens which should give us a new points leader after the race and set up for a great final three races.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #1 Jamie McMurray (12/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
3) #31 Jeff Burton (18/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (20/1)
Odds & Ends - Talladega
Talladega Superspeedway Data
Race #: 33 of 36 (10-31-10)
Track Size: 2.66 miles
# Banking/Corners: 33 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 16.5 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
# Frontstretch: 4,300 feet
# Backstretch: 4,000 feet
Driver Rating at Talladega
Denny Hamlin 95.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 93.3
David Ragan 92.5
Tony Stewart 89.0
Jeff Burton 87.1
Jeff Gordon 86.0
Joey Logano 85.3
Kurt Busch 85.0
Jamie McMurray 84.4
Jimmie Johnson 83.6
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Talladega.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: None (weather)
2009 race winner: Jamie McMurray, 157.213 mph, 11-1-09)
Track qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph, 44.998 seconds, 4-30-87)
Track race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph, 5-10-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 34-36 laps, based on fuel mileage
Driver Highlights - Talladega
1 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 108.6
2010 Rundown
# Six wins, 15 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 13.0
# Led 21 races for 1,311 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 17.8 in 17 races
# Average Running Position of 16.8, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 83.6, 11th-best
# 1,127 Laps in the Top 15 (53.7%), ninth-most
# 2,310 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most
2 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.8
2010 Rundown
# Seven wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 13.4
# Led 17 races for 959 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# Three top fives, three top 10s
# Average finish of 19.3 in nine races
# Series-best Average Running Position of 13.8
# Series-best Driver Rating of 95.9
# 40 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 192.205 mph, fourth-fastest
# 1,038 Laps in the Top 15 (60.6%), 10th-most
# 2,135 Quality Passes, eighth-most
3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.8
2010 Rundown
# Three wins, 14 top fives, 22 top 10s
# Average finish of 9.2
# Led 14 races for 344 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.5 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 19.0, 17th-best
# Driver Rating of 75.3, 18th-best
# 46 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 3,580 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# 1,873 Quality Passes, 12th-most
4 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.2
2010 Rundown
# Three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.6
# Led 17 races for 1,245 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One win, one top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 23.2 in 11 races
# Average Running Position of 18.7, 16th-best
# Driver Rating of 79.7, 16th-best
# 55 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 3,114 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
# 993 Laps in the Top 15 (47.4%), 11th-most
# 1,877 Quality Passes, 11th-most
5 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 102.1
2010 Rundown
# 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 12.2
# Led 19 races for 918 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# Six wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 16.7 in 35 races
# Average Running Position of 17.4, 14th-best
# Driver Rating of 86.0, seventh-best
# 1,138 Laps in the Top 15 (54.3%), seventh-most
6 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.7
2010 Rundown
# Seven top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.1
# Led 10 races for 143 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One top five, three top 10s
# Average finish of 22.5 in 12 races
# Average Running Position of 24.3, 37th-best
# Driver Rating of 67.4, 27th-best
# 40 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
7 - Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.0
2010 Rundown
# Two wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 13.5
# Led 19 races for 536 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 14.8 in 23 races
# Average Running Position of 14.6, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 89.0, fifth-best
# 49 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 3,619 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 192.163 mph, fifth-fastest
# 1,136 Laps in the Top 15 (54.2%), eighth-most
# 1,939 Quality Passes, ninth-most
8 - Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.1
2010 Rundown
# Six top fives, 15 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.0
# Led 15 races for 527 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# Four top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 18.4 in 33 races
# Average Running Position of 17.1, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 87.1, sixth-best
# Series-high 4,322 Green Flag Passes
# Average Green Flag Speed of 192.133 mph, seventh-fastest
# 1,163 Laps in the Top 15 (55.5%), fifth-most
# Series-high 2,970 Quality Passes
9 - Kurt Busch (No. 2 Operation Home Front/Miller Lite Dodge)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.6
2010 Rundown
# Two wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 14.7
# Led 15 races for 820 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# Six top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.8 in 19 races
# Average Running Position of 16.2, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 85.0, ninth-best
# 3,559 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
# 1,212 Laps in the Top 15 (57.8%), second-most
# 2,540 Quality Passes, fourth-most
10 - Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 84.4
2010 Rundown
# Five top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.3
# Led 9 races for 91 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# Three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 18.7 in 21 races
# Average Running Position of 17.0, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 81.7, 14th-best
# 3,332 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# 1,191 Laps in the Top 15 (56.8%), fourth-most
# 2,595 Quality Passes, third-most
11 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 86.9
2010 Rundown
# Two wins, seven top fives, 16 top 10s
# Average finish of 16.1
# Led 11 races for 319 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 22.0 in 15 races
# Average Running Position of 22.5, 29th-best
# Driver Rating of 68.9, 26th-best
# 42 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
12 - Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet)
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.6
2010 Rundown
# One win, six top fives, 16 top 10s
# Average finish of 15.0
# Led 14 races for 381 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
# One top five, three top 10s
# Average finish of 21.4 in nine races
# Average Running Position of 27.3, 48th-best
# Driver Rating of 64.3, 36th-best
# 38 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
Glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase
A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Talladega Superspeedway (in order of points):
DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson
CHASE POINTS: first, 5,998 points
CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 17
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 1st (Spring, 2006)
LAST WEEK: A very rare misstep in Martinsville, a place he's dominated lately. Struggled to find the right setup early and settled for fifth, allowing Hamlin to pull within six points with four races remaining.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It was a solid performance, something we can't be disappointed in,'' Johnson said. ``I wish we were a little better but there is a lot of racing left.''
DRIVER: Denny Hamlin
CHASE POINTS: second, 5,992 points (-6)
CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 9
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 3rd (Spring, 2008)
LAST WEEK: Pulled off a perfect weekend at Martinsville, taking the pole then pulling away from Johnson over the final 30 laps to sweep both stops at NASCAR's shortest track and turning the Chase into a two-driver race.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I don't think I've ever closed that well, ever,'' Hamlin said.
DRIVER: Kevin Harvick
CHASE POINTS: third, 5,936 points (-62)
CAR: No. 29 Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 19
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 1st (Spring, 2010)
LAST WEEK: Posted his best-ever finish at Martinsville by coming in third, perhaps thanks to a pit crew switch with Clint Bowyer's folks. Drew within 62 points of Johnson, but will likely need to win at least one of the last four races to make a run at the title.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Right now, we have four more weeks,'' Harvick said. ``I'm really looking forward to Talladega and just racing hard.''
DRIVER: Kyle Busch
CHASE POINTS: fourth, 5,826 points (-172)
CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 11
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 1st (Spring, 2008)
LAST WEEK: Continued his strong mid-Chase run with a fourth-place at Martinsville including a terrific move past Johnson in the final laps.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Jimmie and I, we know how to do it and I didn't do it rough enough to where I turned him or anything,'' Busch said. ``I just tried to give him a little bit, a little bit to try to get by him.''
DRIVER: Jeff Gordon
CHASE POINTS: fifth, 5,795 points (-203)
CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 35
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 1st (six times)
LAST WEEK: Slipped further out of serious contention with a 20th-place effort at Martinsville, helped in part by a midrace run-in with Kurt Busch that send Gordon into the wall in Turn 4.
CHASE CHATTER: ``At this point we're just racing to try to get the best finishes, and we'll continue to do that as we move forward,'' Gordon said.
DRIVER: Carl Edwards
CHASE POINTS: sixth, 5,785 points (-213)
CAR: No. 99 Aflac Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 12
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 5th (Fall, 2005)
LAST WEEK: Continued to grind it out at Martinsville, finishing eighth as he closes in on a second straight season without a victory.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I know for me personally I was worn out toward the end, but to come home eighth, I don't know how we did in points, but it's probably better than we started and that's good,'' Edwards said.
DRIVER: Tony Stewart
CHASE POINTS: seventh, 5,762 points (-236)
CAR: No. 14 Old Spice/Office Depot Chevrolet
TEAM: Stewart/Haas Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 23
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 1st (Fall, 2008)
LAST WEEK: A pair of pit road miscues and a late tire problem sent Stewart tumbling through the field at Martinsville, finishing 24th.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It went green for a really long time at the end, and our car got really tight and we're not sure really why,'' crew chief Darian Grubb said.
DRIVER: Jeff Burton
CHASE POINTS: eighth, 5,752 points (-246)
CAR: No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 33
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 3rd (Fall, 2001)
LAST WEEK: Jumped a couple of spots in the standings with a strong run in Martinsville, running as high as second before coming in ninth to post his 15th top-10 of the season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We weren't as good as we needed to be at the end,'' Burton said. ``We put a great effort out there and it's hard to believe you can finish ninth in a car that was that good.''
DRIVER: Kurt Busch
CHASE POINTS: ninth, 5,721 points (-277)
CAR: No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge
TEAM: Penske Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 19
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 3rd (four times)
LAST WEEK: Finished 16th at Martinsville, but settled a score, knocking Gordon out of serious contention by sending the four-time champion into the wall.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I didn't mean to get into him that hard, but I guess that shows the game we're gonna play,'' Busch said. ``One bump versus another bump, it still seems like the scorecard isn't even.''
DRIVER: Matt Kenseth
CHASE POINTS: 10th, 5,705 points (-293)
CAR: No. 17 Crown Royal Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 21
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 3rd (Fall, 2005)
LAST WEEK: A penalty for speeding while exiting pit road late in the race at Martinsville cost him as he ended up 15th.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We sped on pit road somehow, which was weird because I wasn't racing anybody,'' Kenseth said. ``I guess I wasn't paying enough attention on the last segment down there.''
DRIVER: Greg Biffle
CHASE POINTS: 11th, 5,682 points (-316)
CAR: No. 16 3M Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 3.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 15
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 4th (Fall, 2009)
LAST WEEK: A pair of pit-road penalties and a cut tire sent Biffle sinking to a 33rd-place finish at Martinsville.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It was kind of unfortunate today,'' Biffle said.
DRIVER: Clint Bowyer
CHASE POINTS: 12th, 5,592 points (-406)
CAR: No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER TALLADEGA STARTS: 9
BEST TALLADEGA FINISH: 5th (Fall, 2005)
LAST WEEK: His miserable Chase continued at Martinsville, where a midrace collision with the wall sent him to the garage for a lengthy stretch and he wound up 38th.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We were working on the handling and thought we were getting it figured out,'' Bowyer said.
Driver Handicaps: Talladega
By: Jeff Wackerlin
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday's AMP Energy Juice 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 188-lap event.
Who's HOT at Talladega
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (821).
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins and 11 top 10s in 21 starts.
• Tony Stewart has one win and six runner-up finishes.
• David Ragan leads all drivers with a 12.7 average finish in the six races with the COT.
• Kevin Harvick picked up his first win (third plate win overall) in the spring race.
• Jamie McMurray has finished first and second, respectively, in his last two starts.
• Jimmie Johnson has a win and five top-10 finishes in his last nine starts.
• Kurt Busch has finished eighth or better in nine of the last 12 races.
• Denny Hamlin has the best driver rating in the last 11 races.
Keep an Eye on at Talladega
• Kyle Busch has one win and has led 101 laps with the COT at Talladega.
• Michael Waltrip, who will be racing this weekend, has posted the most fastest laps (75) in the last 11 races at Talladega.
• Joey Logano posted a 6.0 average finish at Talladega in 2009 during his rookie season.
• Jeff Burton has made the most green flag passes (4,322) in the last 11 races at Talladega.
• Juan Pablo Montoya will be back in the same car that he won the pole for the 2009 spring Talladega race with and posted three top 10s on restrictor-plate tracks.
• Greg Biffle has a 9.3 average finish in the last three races at Talladega.
• Clint Bowyer has the second-best average finish (13.8) among all drivers that have raced in the six events with the COT at Talladega.
• 2009 spring winner Brad Keselowski has two top 10s in three starts at Talladega.
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Talladega Superspeedway unless noted)
1. Jimmie Johnson: Coming off seventh DNF in 17 starts; 31st-place finish raised finishing average to 17.8; Won the 2006 spring race; Finished second in both races in 2007; 15.2 average finish in the six races with the COT; Led nine of his 201 career laps in the spring; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 618) in the AMP Energy Juice 500.
2. Denny Hamlin: Scored third top five in nine starts in April; Fourth-place finish came after leading 17 of his 192 career laps led; 18.3 average finish and 142 laps led (most among all drivers) in the six races with the COT; Will return in the same car that he posted a 25.8 average finish and 65 laps led with in the last four races at Talladega.
3. Kevin Harvick: Coming off first win in 19 starts; Victory was first top 10 in the last six races; 20.7 average finish in the six races with the COT; 14.9 average finish and three wins in 38 races on restrictor-plate tracks; Will be shooting for his third consecutive win in chassis No. 237 in the AMP Energy Juice 500; This is the same car he posted wins with in the Bud Shootout and Aaron's 499.
4. Kyle Busch: Coming off second top 10 in 11 starts in ninth; Other top 10 was a win in the 2008 spring race; 16.8 average finish and 101 laps led in the six races with the COT; 21.3 average finish in 23 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 260) that he finished 14th with in the Daytona 500 and ninth at Talladega in April.
5. Jeff Gordon: Leads all active drivers with six wins and laps led (821); 27.2 average finish since sweeping both events in 2007; Victory in this event 2007 was first with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 576) that he most recently finished third with at Daytona in July.
6. Carl Edwards: 22.0 average finish in the six races with the COT; Top-15 finishes in the last two events came after crashes in previous two events; Three top 10s in 12 starts came in the 2005 fall race through the 2006 fall race; 20.1 average finish in 24 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 693) that he finished sixth with at Daytona in July.
7. Tony Stewart: Won this event in 2008 in last track start with Joe Gibbs Racing; Posted six second-place finishes in previous 18 starts with JGR; Finished 23rd, 35th and 16th, respectively, in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Only two of his 125 laps led with the COT have come with SHR; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 532) that he finished first with in the 2009 July race at Daytona.
8. Jeff Burton: 32nd-place finish in April ended streak of three consecutive top 10s; Five top 10s in 12 starts with Richard Childress Racing; 17.7 average finish in the six races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 312) that he drove to a fifth-place finish in the July Daytona race.
9. Kurt Busch: 12.8 average finish leads all drivers; 13.8 average finish and six top 10s in nine starts with Penske Racing; Eighth-place finish in the spring was 13th top 10 in 19 overall starts; 14.9 average finish in 39 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 632) that he raced with in April at Talladega.
10. Matt Kenseth: 27.0 average finish in the six races with the COT; Last of six top 10s came in the 2006 Fall race; Will return in the same car that he finished 28th with at Talladega in the spring.
11. Greg Biffle: Fourth-place finish in this event last year is best in 15 starts; Only other top 10 came in the 2009 spring race; 15.5 average finish and six laps led in the six races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 689) that he finished 17th with in April at Talladega.
12. Clint Bowyer: Coming off third top 10 in nine starts; Has yet to lead a lap in last five events; Second-best average finish (13.8) among all drivers that have raced in the six events with the COT; 16.9 average finish in 19 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 294) that he finished fourth with in the Daytona 500.
13. Jamie McMurray: Defending race winner; Finished second in April in first track start with Earnhardt-Ganassi; Three time winner on restrictor-plate tracks, including a win in this year's Daytona 500; 21.8 average finish in the six races with the COT; 21.5 average finish in 32 starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1009) that he led 27 laps with in the spring at Talladega.
14. Mark Martin: Coming off 11th top five in 45 starts; 25.3 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Crashes took him out of both races in 2009; Posted two wins and 20 top 10s in previous 38 starts with Roush Racing; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 577) in the AMP Energy Juice 500.
15. Ryan Newman: Finished third in first track start with Stewart-Haas in the 2009 spring race; Finish was seventh top 10 in 17 starts; Posted fifth and sixth DNFs in the last two races after crashes took him out of contention; 21.7 average finish in six races with the COT.
16. Juan Pablo Montoya: Coming off second top five (third) in seven starts; Finish was first top 15 in a Chevrolet; 19.7 average finish in 15 restrictor-plate starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 902) that he won the pole with for the 2009 spring race and posted three top 10s in seven restrictor-plate starts.
17. Joey Logano: First two of three starts resulted in top-10 finishes; 36th-place finish in April raised his finishing average to 16.0; Has led at least one lap in every race; 22.7 average finish in seven starts on restrictor-plate tracks; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 212) that he finished 20th with in the Daytona 500.
18. David Reutimann: Has yet to post a top 10 in seven starts; Best finish came in the spring race in 14th; 24.2 average finish in the six races with the COT.
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Five-time winner; Second-place finish in the 2009 spring race is best finish in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; 8.7 average finish in last three starts; 672 laps led in 21 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 563) that he finished second with in the Daytona 500.
20. AJ Allmendinger: Has yet to finish inside the top 15 in four starts; Finished 19th in April in track debut in a Ford; 27.4 average finish in nine starts on restrictor-plate tracks.
NASCAR betting: Harvick Knows How to Tame Talladega
By Greg Engle
It’s the wildcard. Some drivers look forward to the visit, most do not. It’s Talladega, the biggest speedway on the circuit. So big in fact it’s known as a superspeedway.
The 2.66-mile oval is a test of raw speed, power and concentration for 500 miles of white-knuckle racing. For fans, Sunday’s Amp Energy 500 is one of the most anticipated races of the year. And among drivers, this week’s favorite Kevin Harvick is also filled with anticipation.
Harvick nearly won last week’s race at Martinsville, NASCAR’s shortest track, which is a place he wasn’t expected to do well at. But he led laps, stayed in contention all race long and finished a career-high third, nearly hitting a home run.
"We came pretty close,” Harvick told me this week. “We went to Martinsville and had our first Top-5 finish there, we beat the No. 48 car, and we kept the No. 11 in sight. We were in contention to win, so that was pretty close to a home run. Everybody said it was going to be a two-horse race and we were right there in the middle of it. I had a lot of fun last week. Right now, we have four more races. I'm really looking forward to Talladega and just racing hard."
Racing hard is something Harvick does very well at Talladega. Unlike Martinsville, Harvick heads into Sunday’s race with the knowledge that he won the spring race here. Many in the garage area feel that Harvick and his team are starting to show what they have and are solidifying their place as the biggest threat to win it all.
The driver who could steal the show Sunday, just like he did last week by winning at Martinsville, is Denny Hamlin. He has the highest driver rating among the Top-12 drivers in the Chase and, like Harvick, seems to really be showing everything he’s got.
So why isn’t he the favorite this week? He has one glaring difference from Harvick - Hamlin has failed to finish here three times while Harvick is the only driver among the 12 in the Chase who has finished every race he’s started at Talladega. There is one big factor that overshadows all the rest this weekend - survival. And Harvick has proved he’s a master of that at Talladega.
This week’s primetime matchup pits Jeff Gordon against Kurt Busch. The two tangled at Martinsville, with Gordon coming out on the losing end last week. The tension will be high when they are close to each other. Gordon leads all active drivers with six wins here, while Busch has never won. Despite that, look for Busch to come out on top as Gordon has yet to prove they have shaken the gremlins that have slowed them down this year.
In the other matchup of the week look for Kyle Busch to try and finish ahead of his former teammate Tony Stewart. Both have one victory here, Busch won the spring race in 2008 and Stewart the fall race that same year, and both are hungry to win again. Busch, however, knows he’s still in the Chase so look for him to reach down to find that little extra to power past Stewart.
The spoiler
Never, under any circumstances, count Jimmie Johnson out. He didn’t win the last four championships without gaining a little knowledge of what it will take to protect his fragile points lead.
He has one win here, coming in 2006, but he finished 31st at Talladega in the spring. But does that mean he will try and hide and simply walk away with a decent finish? Not by a long shot. Just as he has proven time and time again, Johnson is capable of winning each and every week and this Sunday will be no exception.
Picks
Kevin Harvick (+500)
Denny Hamlin (+2500)
Jimmie Johnson (+2500)
Practice Notes - Talladega
By Micah Roberts
Top 8 Driver Ratings Following all Practice Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualifying April 25*
1. Kevin Harvick 5/1 31st DNP 14th 1st
Won two of the three plates races this season; using same car that won in April.
2. Jamie McMurray 8/1 3rd DNP 12th 2nd
Won this race in 2009 and Daytona 500 this year. Using runner-up chassis from April.
3. Jeff Burton 20/1 22nd 2nd 5th 32nd
Led the most laps in April race; using the same chassis that finished sixth at Daytona in July.
4. Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1 36th DNP 1st 3rd
Career best of second-place in 2008; using same ECR engine as Harvick and McMurray.
5. Denny Hamlin 25/1 1st 4th 17th 4th
Has led a lap in all nine career starts; using chassis that has started last three at Talladega.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1 10th 6th 6th 13th
Five wins with the last coming in 2004; using runner-up chassis from the Daytona 500.
7. Clint Bowyer 20/1 16th DNP 2nd 7th
Using the powerful ECR engine inside his fourth-place Daytona 500 chassis this week.
8. Kyle Busch 8/1 2nd 15th 32nd 9th
Won in spring of 2008, his only top five finish on track; has led a lap in last six starts.
* Results from the Talladega Aaron’s 499.
Note: Talladega is one of two tracks that require teams to use restrictor plates accounting for four races on the 36 race schedule. This is an impound race with only two scheduled practices. Many teams chose not to run the final practice.