Autism Speaks 400 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The NASCAR summer-fest takes its traveling tour up North for the first time this season after criss-crossing the country from the west to southeast several times already in this young season. For almost the entire month of May, the drivers have had the luxury of sleeping in their own bed as all the races have been near their homes, beginning with Darlington and concluding with the two weeks of races in Charlotte.
The northeast tour begins this weekend as all 3 major NASCAR series race on the one mile high banked concrete oval of Dover, Delaware, otherwise known as the Monster Mile. The track is unique to itself and doesn’t resemble another, first because of the concrete, and second because of the high banking. Over the last couple of years, crew chiefs have brought their Bristol chassis’ to Dover because of the similarities in steep banking and because of the recent multi-grooves run at Bristol now after the restructuring, or dismantling of the famed half mile track.
If we use the comparison from two tracks from 2008, we see that one driver, Matt Kenseth, finished in the Top 10 in all four races and six other drivers finished in the Top 10 in 3 of the 4 races.
One of the drivers that doesn’t show up on the list is this week’s favorite, Las Vegan Kyle Busch, who won this Dover race last season, but failed to get a top 10 in any of the other three races. Part of the lack of success for Busch on this track has to do with hard charging nature and never being able to settle down and take what the track gives him when he may have a car that is only capable of getting a 12th. It’s almost like an all or nothing deal for Kyle.
That style and nature succeeded for Kyle Busch in this years Bristol race that saw him dominate and lead the most laps en route to the win. In Dover races of the past, Kyle has been spectacular mixed in with two 40th or worse finishes. In eight career Dover starts, he has five Top 5 finishes. His run there last season is the perfect example of the extreme high’s and lows of Busch. After winning in the spring, he finished dead last in the fall, a race in the chase that sent him to the bottom of the chase points and doomed his chances despite still having eight races remaining.
The three races this weekend at Dover also give Busch another chance to complete the trifecta, or treble, which is winning all three series races in a weekend. No one has ever accomplished the feat, but Busch has won two of the three on three separate occasions. This season at California Busch became the first driver to ever win two major series races on the same day when he won the truck race early and came back a few hours later to win the Nationwide race. He fell short in the Cup race with a third place finish. In all, Busch has 50 career NASCAR wins covering all three major series, including eight this season.
The career active leader in average finish position is Carl Edwards with a 7.7 clip in ninestarts. Since the fall of 2006, Edwards has five straight finishes of getting either a first, second, or third. Edwards, nicknamed Concrete Carl because of his prowess on the surface in all series, took the fall Dover Cup race of 2007.
The similarities between Bristol and Dover success is no more apparent than Edwards who last year won at Bristol and then had a second and third at Dover. If the trend continues between the two tracks, Edwards could be in trouble because he was a non-factor at Bristol for the first time in two seasons. All isn’t well with the No. 99 Roush team, but if anything can get him going, it’s likely to be the concrete of Dover.
Jimmie Johnson tied his best finish ever at Bristol this season after taking some serious lumps in his career on the track. Perhaps the extreme makeover of the track had something to do with his recent success there, and perhaps making the track run more like Dover was right up Johnson’s alley. Johnson finished in the Top 10 in both Dover races last season and has three career wins on the concrete oval, including sweeping the season in his rookie year of 2002. Only Ryan Newman and Edwards have a better career average finish at Dover than Johnson with his 11.1 average. Johnson’s last win there came in the fall of 2005; since then he’s had only one Top 5.
Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin are the tracks active leaders in wins with four. Martin’s last win there came in 2004 while Gordon’s was in 2001. The two teammates and elder statesmen of the series are showing all the youngsters how it’s done. Both are currently in line for making the chase for the championship with Gordon leading everyone in points. Gordon is one of the six drivers to finish in the Top 10 in three of the four Bristol and Dover races last season. Gordon’s fifth and seventh last season at Dover was his best season there since 2002. At Bristol this season, Gordon didn’t have a great car but was able to bring it in with a great fourth place finish. Expect similar results this week.
Ryan Newman began his upward swing on his season at Bristol with a seventh after struggling to barely qualify for races in the first few races of 2009. Newman, once wondering if he’d made the right choice to go with Tony Stewart in this make shift start-up team, now is firmly entrenched with points , sitting in seventh, and is on his way to the Chase in one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent NASCAR history. They have gone from Junk to now competing for wins.
Newman has an average finish of 10.5 at Dover over his 14 career starts. From 2003 to 2004, Newman won three of the four races there and has always had a knack for the concrete. Look for Newman to get back to success at Dover after a mediocre 2008 there with Penske.
Greg Biffle has 13 career Dover starts and has an 11.2 average finish position. He won the fall Dover race last season giving him two career wins there. He is currently on a streak there that has seen him finish no worse than eighth in his last six races. Like Edwards, Biffle has finished first, second, or third in his last three races there. At Bristol this year, Biffle had engine problems that relegated him to a 39th. If going back to 2008, Biffle is one of the six drivers to finish in the Top 10 in three of the four races at Dover and Bristol combined.
Congratulations go out to David Reutimann for getting his first Cup win at Charlotte last week, with an assist from Mother Nature. The race dragged on for two days of rain until NASCAR finally said enough is enough and called the race that had barely passed the halfway point. For bettors, there weren’t many takers on Reutimann at 75 to 1 and higher, therefore many of the books did very well in their odds to win pools. The books also did well in driver matchups because of the rain and the sequence of pitting that occurred just before the final Red Flag came. Many of the top cars bet on for this race were shuffled back allowing some of the underdogs to get there. One thing you can’t handicap, and that is the weather. Good luck this week and let’s hope that we have some nice Delaware weather for this weekend.
Top 5 Dover Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
3) #39 Ryan Newman (18/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
Driver to win the Autism Speaks 400
Kyle Busch 5 - 1
Jimmie Johnson 6 - 1
Greg Biffle 7 - 1
Carl Edwards 7 - 1
Jeff Gordon 8 - 1
Matt Kenseth 10 - 1
Mark Martin 12 - 1
Denny Hamlin 12 - 1
Tony Stewart 12 - 1
Kurt Busch 15 - 1
Martin Truex Jr 25 - 1
Kasey Kahne 25 - 1
Ryan Newman 25 - 1
Jeff Burton 30 - 1
Jamie McMurray 35 - 1
Kevin Harvick 40 - 1
Brian Vickers 40 - 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 40 - 1
Joey Logano 50 - 1
Clint Bowyer 50 - 1
David Ragan 50 - 1
David Reutimann 60 - 1
Juan Pablo Montoya 75 - 1
Michael Waltrip 100 - 1
Paul Menard 100 - 1
Bobby Labonte 100 - 1
Reed Sorenson 100 - 1
Sam Hornish Jr 100 - 1
Scott Speed 100 - 1
Elliott Sadler 100 - 1
AJ Allmendinger 100 - 1
David Stremme 100 - 1
Casey Mears 100 - 1
Field (Any Other Driver) 35 - 1
Autism Speaks 400 PreQ
Greg Biffle has had some phenomenal runs at Dover International Speedway in recent years. Over the last eight races at the track Biffle has been to victory lane twice with seven top 10s and in the last four races he is averaging a 3rd place finish. Biffle has had an odd year to this point with zero wins and five finishes of 20th place or worse yet sits 10th in the point standings through the first third of the season. He looks to be in position to be a contender in the Chase for the Championship and a solid run this weekend could do wonders for the #16 3M Ford team.
The driver that has been performing just as well, or even better, than Biffle in the last few years has been teammate Carl Edwards. In nine career starts Edwards is averaging an 8th place finish but over the last four races is averaging a 2nd place finish recording one win while finishing each race in the top 3. It seems that the Roush-Fenway Racing duo have figured out how to get around the Monster Mile fairly easily and should be in your lineups for the Autism Speaks 400,
A driver on the opposite end of the spectrum over the last four races has been Kurt Busch. In the past two seasons Busch has failed to record a finish better than 20th place with an average finish of 31st position. Busch currently is in the 3rd position in the point standings but has had some struggles recently. He had his poorest finish of the season in the rain shortened Coca-Cola 600 last weekend finishing in the 34th spot. It was his third consecutive finish outside the top 10 – the first time that has occurred all season. Busch may struggle once again this weekend and gets the ‘buyer beware’ label for this race.
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Autism Speaks 400 HOT! Sheet
Look out! Here comes the “killer bees”! That’s the nickname for the #17 team of Matt Kenseth. Over the last month or so, he has quickly been on the rise and has gotten back to running well on a consistent basis. It started at Talladega where he led 9 laps and had a solid top 20 run. He followed that up by improving 22 spots from start to finish at Richmond. From the pole, he had a top 10 at Darlington. Then when the rains came last week, he was scored 10th again. He won this race three years ago, so he is a really good option for you.
If you’re looking for a sleeper team that has made a good fantasy option so far, it’s Juan Pablo Montoya. The Columbian driver has been impressive considering he still is relatively new to this style of racing. He has yet to post a DNF, and as a matter of fact has finished on the lead lap in all but two events (Vegas and Phoenix). He is coming off of a good weekend in Charlotte as he qualified 9th and when the final red flag waved he was scored 8th. He probably isn’t too expensive in most formats and he should be a good buy.
It’s been a pretty wild season so far for Greg Biffle, but the #16 team still finds themselves steadied in the top 10 in the standings. He has had spurts where it looked like nothing could go right with back-to-back DNFs in Atlanta and Bristol. But he’s also had spurts in which he looked like he may make a strong run at the title this year like he did with top 7s in all three events in April. He also led the most laps at Darlington. He has an incredible track record here. It includes a win last fall. We like his chances this weekend.
For the second week in a row, the same name is at the very bottom of our sheet. That’s because the woes continue for Clint Bowyer. The former Chaser has looked like anything but a Chase contender for the last two months. He has plummeted all the way down to 17th in the standings. As you can see on our chart, his average finish in the last six events is about 30th. In those, he has finished on the lead lap only once. That whole organization has been weak lately and until they turn it around, stay away.
Speaking of Richard Childress Racing, Kevin Harvick can’t seem to find the right path either and he is at the bottom of the list, too. It’s kind of hard to believe, but he has only finished inside the top 15 five times this season, and it’s happened only once in the last six events (11th – Darlington). It just seems to be one thing after another for the #29 team. They are coming off a terrible showing in Charlotte when the car made contact with another one early in the event, which was just the start to a 41st place showing. We know he has the potential to win on any given week, but we still can’t recommend him right now.
profantasysports.com
Driver Highlights - Dover
VegasInsider.com
NASCAR’s top 12 in points heading to Dover, Delaware
1 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) 7/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.5 2009 Rundown
# One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 10.1
# Led eight races for a total of 496 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Four wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 11.9
# Finished seventh in September
# Led 19 of 32 races for 2,231 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Series-high 299 Fastest Laps Run
2 – Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet) 12/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.6 2009 Rundown
# Five top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 10.2
# Led five races for 54 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.2
# Finished 11th in September
# Led 10 of 20 races for 1,061 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
3 – Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) 18/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.3 2009 Rundown
# One win, three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 12.2
# Led seven races for 322 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Two top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 21.4
# Finished 34th in September
# Led four of 17 races for 225 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Average Running Position of 10.0, third-best
4 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) 5/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 101.7 2009 Rundown
# One win, five top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 13.7
# Led 10 races for 319 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Three wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.1
# Finished fifth in September
# Led nine of 14 races for 637 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Average Running Position of 10.0, second-best
5 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota) 12/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.0 2009 Rundown
# Two top fives, four top 10s
# Average finish of 12.4
# Led four races for 479 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# One top five, two top 10s
# Average finish of 23.8
# Finished 38th in September
# Led one of six races for 61 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Average Running Position of 10.3, fourth-most
6 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) 5/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.1 2009 Rundown
# Three wins, four top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 15.8
# Led eight races for 789 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# One win, five top fives
# Average finish of 14.4
# Finished 43rd in September
# Led three of eight races for 270 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# 236 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
7 – Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet) 18/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.5 2009 Rundown
# Four top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 14.0
# Led seven races for 137 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 10.5
# Finished 13th in September
# Led nine of 14 races for 813 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Has run 78.6% of the laps on the lead lap, 12th-best
8 – Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet) 25/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.9 2009 Rundown
# Two top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 14.5
# Led two races for 67 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# One win, six top fives, 13 tops 10s
# Average finish of 16.3
# Finished ninth in September
# Led eight of 30 races for 127 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 66.4%, ninth-best
9 – Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford) 15/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 81.8 2009 Rundown
# Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 16.2
# Led five races for 171 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.1
# Finished second in September
# Led seven of 20 races for 686 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# 1,116 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
10 – Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford) 10/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.5 2009 Rundown
# Three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 16.0
# Led five races for 267 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.2
# Won September’s Dover race
# Led seven of 13 races for 422 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# 255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
11 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford) 10/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 89.7 2009 Rundown
# Two top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 16.0
# Led five races for 42 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# One win, five top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 7.7
# Finished third in September
# Led six of nine races for 285 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Average Running Position of 13.3, seventh-best
12 – Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet) 10/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.4 2009 Rundown
# Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 17.8
# Led five races for 215 laps Dover International Speedway Outlook:
# Four wins, 21 top fives, 28 top 10s; four poles
# Average finish of 12.8
# Finished fourth in September
# Led 28 of 45 races for 1,719 laps Season-To-Date Loop Data Highlight
# Has been passed 484 times, fewest in the series
13 – David Reutimann (No. 00 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota) 45/1
# Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.2 2009 Rundown
Autism Speaks 400 Driver Rating
This week’s race at Dover International Speedway marks the 13th stop – halfway – in qualifying for one of the 12 positions in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Statistics covering the five previous years in which the championship has been contested under The Chase format suggest at least 10 drivers among the current top 12 will be in the mix when the Chase begins in September at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
In the past three seasons, only one driver outside the top 12 after the spring Dover race was able to race his way into the Chase. Two drivers in 2004 and 2005 managed to become Chase eligible over the season’s second half. That, however, was then and this is now.
The 2009 season is one of parity – eight different winners through the first 12 races – with at least nine teams currently having a realistic chance of making the Chase. No surprise; Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Richard Childress Racing and Roush Fenway Racing are current holders of top-12 positions. But Stewart-Haas Racing, a first-year team, and a resurgent Penske Racing also are represented. Among the teams within 80 points of the top 12 are Michael Waltrip Racing, for which David Reutimann won its first race May 25 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway; Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates, Richard Petty Motorsports and Team Red Bull.
There could be a number of new faces in this year’s Chase. Three among the current top 12 and eight of the first 16 were not among last year’s qualifiers. All four manufacturers stand an excellent chance of taking home the championship trophy. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota were represented a year ago while Dodge didn’t see a team qualify for the 2008 Chase. But Penske’s Kurt Busch, the 2004 champion and first to win the title under the Chase format, ranks a solid third on the basis of a win, three top-five and six top-10 finishes.
Last spring’s Dover race proved a microcosm of last year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. The top five finishers – and six of the first seven – all became Chase-eligible. Eventual champion Jimmie Johnson finished seventh. Active winners of the spring race are holders of 11 NASCAR Sprint Cup titles. Jeff Gordon is the only driver with a Dover spring victory in his championship season. Gordon won both in 2001.
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Driver Handicaps: Dover
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover Int'l Speedway for Sunday's Autism Speaks 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.
Who's HOT at Dover
• Greg Biffle has the best driver rating (116.6) over the last eight races.
• Defending event winner Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in five of his eight starts.
• Four-time winner Mark Martin leads all drivers with 21 top fives.
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 7.7 average finish.
• Jimmie Johnson has three wins and nine top 10s in 14 starts.
• Four-time winner Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with 2,201 laps led.
• Matt Kenseth has one win and has led the most laps (627) in the last eight races.
Keep an Eye on at Dover
• Martin Truex Jr. has one win and an average finish of 10.0 at Dover with the new car.
• Tony Stewart has a 12.2 average finish and has led 1,066 laps at Dover.
• Three-time Dover winner Ryan Newman is shooting for his fifth-straight top five of 2009.
• Jeff Burton has an 8.0 average finish in his last eight races at Dover.
• Dover is Jamie McMurray's second best track in laps led with 131.
Qualifying Tidbits
Dover Int'l Speedway has seen 33 different pole winners, led by David Pearson with six. Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles. Starting positions in the top five have produced 47 race winners, while only 17 races have been won from a starting position outside the top 10. The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 37th (Kyle Petty, 1995). Qualifying has been cancelled four times at Dover. Greg Biffle is the defending pole winner in this race and Ryan Newman is the last driver to have won from the pole position (2003).
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Mark Martin
Pete Pistone: Greg Biffle
Rachael West: Matt Kenseth
Kym Opalenik: Carl Edwards
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
1. Jeff Gordon: Gordon will be making his 33rd start at Dover International Speedway on Sunday. With four wins at the track, he is tied with Mark Martin and Bill Elliott for the most wins among active drivers at the track. He last won on June 3, 2001 after leading 381 laps in the race. Gordon leads all active drivers with the most laps led at "The Monster Mile" with 2,231. Overall, Gordon has finished in the top five 14 times and has started on the pole four times. Since recording two DNFs in 2005, Gordon has gone on to post four top 10s, including a fifth-place run in this event last year.
2. Tony Stewart: Stewart has only finished in the top 10 once in the last eight races at Dover International Speedway. Prior to that string of races, Stewart posted two wins (both in 2000), eight top-five and 11 top-10 finishes. This weekend, Stewart will look to turn around his recent luck at Dover when he makes his first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing.
3. Kurt Busch: Busch has competed in six races with Penske Racing at Dover International Speedway, and his fourth-place run in the 2006 fall race is his only top 10 with the team. Prior to 2006, Busch made 11 starts at DIS with Roush-Fenway Racing where he recorded three top 10s. This weekend, Busch will drive the same car (chassis No. 600) that finished 11th at Bristol.
4. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off his 14th top 10 at Dover International Speedway after finishing fifth last fall. In this event last year, Johnson started fourth and finished seventh. In his first two starts at DIS in 2002, Johnson swept the season after leading a combined total of 358 laps. He captured his third win at the track in the 2005 fall race after leading 134 laps from the fifth starting position. In the 2006 June event, Johnson had an eventful weekend after multiple incidents that started with a spin in qualifying. In the race, he started 42nd and quickly found himself a lap down after a mid-race accident. In the end, Johnson was able to rally back to finish sixth. This weekend, Johnson will race the same car (chassis No. 465) that started 42nd and finished second at Darlington Raceway earlier this month.
5. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off three consecutive finishes of 38th or worse at Dover International Speedway. The finishes have raised his average finish to 23.8 in six starts. His best finish, and second top 10, was a fourth-place run in the 2007 fall race.
6. Kyle Busch: Busch is the defending winner of this event after leading 158 laps from the third starting position. The win came in his first start at Dover International Speedway with Joe Gibbs Racing. He raised his average to 14.4 last fall after engine problems relegated him to a 43rd-place finish. Busch's previous six starts at Dover came with Hendrick Motorsports where he posted four top fives. This weekend, Busch will pilot the same car (chassis No. 193) that led 378 laps en route to a win at Bristol in March.
7. Ryan Newman: Newman has put together a pretty impressive record in his 14 starts at Dover International Speedway. Newman has captured three wins, eight top 10s, and has led 813 laps. His last top 10 came in the 2007 June event when he led 135 laps en route to a second-place finish. Three of Newman's four Dover poles have come in the last seven events. Newman's last win at Dover came in the 2004 fall race when he dominated the race leading 325 laps on his way to his only win in The Chase. This weekend, Newman will look to turnaround his recent three-race Dover average of 18.3 when he makes his track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing.
8. Jeff Burton: Burton scored his best finishes with Richard Childress Racing in nine races at Dover International Speedway in 2006 after finishing fourth in June and winning the fall race. The victory ended a 175 Sprint Cup race winless drought. In the last three races at DIS, Burton has scored three more top 10s to give him an average finish of 7.1 with RCR at Dover. Prior to his Dover races with RCR, Burton captured eight top 10s with Roush Racing dating back to 1996. This weekend, Burton will climb into the same car (chassis No. 239) that finished eighth at Bristol in March.
9. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth captured his first win at Dover International Speedway in the 2006 June race after leading 83 laps from the 19th starting position. Sunday will mark Kenseth's 21st start at the one-mile oval dating back to 1998 when he made his first Sprint Cup start after stepping in for Bill Elliott. Along with his victory, Kenseth has recorded 12 top-10 finishes and one pole, which was the first of his career.
10. Greg Biffle: Dover International Speedway is Greg Biffle's best track that he's made more than 10 starts at based on his finishing average of 11.2. Biffle has been on a tear in the last eight races at DIS, capturing two wins and sixth consecutive finishes of eighth or better. Biffle combined to lead 314 laps en route to his two wins. This weekend, Biffle will return in the same car (chassis No. 546) that won at Dover last fall.
11. Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off his fifth consecutive top five at Dover International Speedway after leading 85 laps en route to a third-place finish. Last year in this event, Edwards finished second. Edwards, who leads all drivers with a 7.7 average finish, scored the win in the 2007 fall race. This weekend, Edwards will make his 10th start at the one-mile track in the same car (chassis No. 596) that finished 15th at Bristol in March.
12. Mark Martin: Martin has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts at Dover International Speedway dating back to his fourth win at the track in 2004. His 21 top fives and 28 top 10s leads all drivers. This weekend, Martin will make his Dover debut with Hendrick Motorsports in the same car (chassis No. 527) that won at Darlington Raceway.
13. David Reutimann: Reutimann will look to carry over his momentum from his win at Lowe's to Dover International Speedway where he is in search of his first top 10 there. In three starts, Reutimann has posted an average finish of 20.7. This weekend, he will drive the same car (chassis No. 634) that finished fourth in the Sprint Showdown two weeks ago.
14. Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has posted one top-10 finish in four starts at Dover International Speedway. Last year he finished 12th and 39th, respectively. This weekend, Montoya will pilot the same car (chassis No. 802) that finished ninth at Bristol in March.
15. Kasey Kahne: Dover International Speedway is Kahne's worst oval on the schedule less than 1.5 miles in length based on his 25.9 average finish. His average finish is hindered by four crashes and one mechanical problem. Kahne's lone top 10 came in the 2006 June race when he finished seventh.
16. Brian Vickers: Vickers has made four starts at Dover International Speedway with the Red Bull Racing team. His best finish with the team came last June when he came home 13th. Vickers' previous six starts all came with Hendrick Motorsports where he posted one top-10 finish (sixth) in 2005.
17. Clint Bowyer: Last year in this event, Bowyer recorded his worst finish (36th) in six career starts at Dover International Speedway after the car suffered suspension problems. His best finish at the track is three eighth-place finishes with the most recent coming last fall. This weekend, Bowyer will debut a new car (chassis No. 268) in the Autism Speaks 400.
18. Martin Truex Jr.: Dover International Speedway is one of Truex Jr.'s best tracks on the circuit based on his 11.3 average finish. His win in the 2007 June race marked the first of his Sprint Cup career. He won the event after leading 216 laps from the 26th starting position. Last year in this event, Truex captured his third top 10 with a sixth-place finish. This weekend, Truex Jr. will be back in the same car (chassis No. 82) that led 61 laps en route to a sixth-place finish at Darlington Raceway.
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt Jr. did not have a good debut season at Dover International Speedway with Hendrick Motorsports. His 24th-place finish in the fall race was his best effort in 2008. His previous starts came with Dale Earnhardt Inc., which included his only win at the track in September 2001. In addition to his win, Dale Jr. has four top fives and seven top 10s at the one-mile track. He has led in eight races for 366 laps. In the 2003 fall race, he started second - after rain cancelled qualifying - and then went on to lead 48 laps before posting his only Dover DNF. This weekend, Earnhardt Jr. will be back behind the wheel of the same car (chassis No. 526) that finished 14th at Bristol and 27th at Darlington.
20. Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose will be making his second Cup Series start at Dover International Speedway. Last fall, he finished 32nd driving the No. 21 Ford for the Woods Brothers.
RacingOne Power Rankings
RacingOne.com
Season-to-Date Driver Ratings
Ryan Newman took the top spot in the rankings from his boss after he posted his fourth consecutive top-five finish this season with a runner-up finish in the Coca-Cola 600. RacingOne's rankings are based on a combination of season-to-date loop data, season standings and staff selections by Jeff Wackerlin and Rachael West.
1. Ryan Newman: Newman took the top spot in the rankings after finishing second in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 Monday. Newman was one of the few drivers to benefit from the rain, as he opted not to pit under the caution on lap 222 and stayed out to grab the runner-up spot beyond Reutimann. That decision bumped him up from 15th prior to the caution, and gave him his fourth straight top-five finish this season. The last time Newman posted four-straight top fives was at this time of the season in 2005. In 14 starts at Dover, Newman has three victories and four pole positions. His average finish is 10.5 with eight top 10s.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.5
Point Standing: Seventh
Last Week's Ranking: Second
2. Tony Stewart: Stewart won the All-Star race but slipped in the rankings after being caught in 19th place when the Coca-Cola 600 was called early for rain. He elected to pit under the caution on lap 222 for gas and four tires but the pit stop proved unnecessary when the race was red flagged on lap 227. Stewart maintained his point standing in second place, though. Stewart is a two-time winner at Dover and has 12 top 10s there in 20 starts. But, he's only posted one top 10 in the last eight races there.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 99.6
Point Standing: Second
Last Week's Ranking: First
3. Kyle Busch: Busch jumped in the rankings after being the dominant driver in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 Monday. He led 173 of the race's 227 laps but he had to settle for a sixth-place finish after pitting on lap 222 - while leading - for gas. Busch will try to shake off the bad luck at Dover this weekend where he is the defending race winner. Five of Busch's eight starts at the track have resulted in top-five finishes but he has an average finish there of 14.4 due to two engine-failure sparked DNF's.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.1
Point Standing: Sixth
Last Week's Ranking: 10th
4. Jeff Gordon: Gordon still owns the top spot in the standings but he slipped in the rankings after posting his fourth finish outside of the top 10 at the rain-soaked Coca-Cola 600. His 14th-place finish was a result of pit strategies and not related to his recent back issues. In 32 starts at the Monster Mile Gordon has won four races - his last in this event in 2001. He has 20 top 10s, 14 top fives and an average finish of 11.9.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.5
Point Standing: First
Last Week's Ranking: Third
5. Joey Logano: Logano jumped in the rankings after posting his second consecutive top 10 finish, and third when including the All-Star race after being voted in on the fan vote. His ninth-place finish was his third top 10 of the season in a points race - all of which have come in the last four races this season. Logano will be making his series debut at Dover this weekend.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 62.6
Point Standing: 25th
Last Week's Ranking: Ninth
6. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson led six laps in the Coca-Cola 600 and was trying to prepare for a longer race when he pitted late in the race. He had run from first through eighth for most of the race. However, when the race was red flagged, he was marked with a 13th-place finish at his sponsor's home track. At Dover, Johnson has won four times, including in his first two Cup races at the track, and has only finished outside the top 15 two times. In 14 starts, he has nine top 10s and an average finish of 11.1.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 101.7
Point Standing: Fourth
Last Week's Ranking: Fifth
7. Mark Martin: Martin, like most other drivers, was banking on the Coca-Cola 600 lasting longer than it did. He was caught in 17th when the race was red flagged, after he pitted for four tires on lap 222. The result dropped him one spot in the points to 12th - 294 behind teammate Jeff Gordon. Martin is a four-time winner at Dover, all of which were in a Ford with Roush Racing. In 45 starts he has 21 top fives, 28 top 10s and an average finish of 12.8. In the COT, Martin has an average finish of 9.5.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.4
Point Standing: 12th
Last Week's Ranking: Fourth
8. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin maintained his fifth place spot in the standings after posting an 11th-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. The result was his third consecutive top 15 finish this season and he now has an average finish of 12.4. At Dover, Hamlin has only posted one top five finish in six starts. His average finish is 23.8. He crashed to a 43rd-place finish in this event last year and has three straight finishes of 38th or worse in the last three races.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.0
Point Standing: Fifth
Last Week's Ranking: Seventh
9. David Reutimann: Reutimann won his first NASCAR Cup Series race at Lowe's Motor Speedway Monday after gambling on pit strategy and opting to stay out on the track on lap 222. The win was also his team, Michael Waltrip Racing's, first win and Toyota's first win at LMS. Reutimann jumped two spots in the standings to 13th with the win and is now only six points out of the top 12. He's made three starts at Dover with a best finish of 17th in last year's fall race.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.2
Point Standing: 13th
Last Week's Ranking: N/R
10. Brian Vickers: Vickers beat several drivers off of pit road during the last caution period and was able to grab a fifth-place finish in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 as a result. Vickers is now in 16th place in the standings. In 10 starts at Dover, he's posted one top-10 finish - in this event in 2005. His average finish there is 21.2.
Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.9
Point Standing: 16th
Last Week's Ranking: N/R
Autism Speaks 400 Preview
by Christopher G. Shepard
Drivers and fans hope that the rains hold off for the Autism Speaks 400 at Dover International Speedway this Sunday at 1:30 p.m. as Jeff Gordon will try to extend a tenuous 44-point lead over Tony Stewart in the Sprint Cup standings with 12 races left before the Chase.
Gamblers who follow trends should keep in mind that 12 different drivers have won the Autism Speaks 400 in the last 12 races at the Monster Mile while the only driver to have won this race twice since 1996 is Jeff Gordon.
Who will win the 2009 Autism Speaks 400?
Dover is an incredibly important race for drivers on the bubble. Consider that last year 10 out of 12 drivers who were in the Top 12 after Dover made the Chase. This is important for the likes of David Reutimann, in 13th place and six points from 12th as well as Juan Pablo Montoya in 14th place and 31 points from 12th. At 77 points out of the 12th spot for the Chase, Kasey Kahne knows how important a good finish at Dover could be for his chances to make NASCAR's postseason. Of the three aforementioned drivers, Kahne is the only driver who has won at Dover and he'll look to make a strong showing on Sunday.
There was more bad news from the Dale Jr. camp this week. Despite driving for NASCAR powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports, who has three of their four drivers in the Chase, Earnhardt, Jr. has been set at 40/1 to win this week. You might love Junior as a fan but that is no reason to bet on No. 88 at Dover. Crew chief (and cousin) Tony Eury, Jr. was fired on Thursday and will be replaced for the race by team manager Brian Whitesell. Whatever happens, it can't be worse than Junior's 40th place at Lowe's last weekend; but it's called the Monster not the Miracle Mile.
One driver I really like this week and is screaming out to me is Carl Edwards. Edwards enters Dover in 11th place in the standings but he is far from a comfortable lock to make the Chase at this point in the season. In 10 Sprint Cup starts at Dover Edwards has two Top-5s and five Top-10s and at 7.7 has the best average finish of all active drivers. And he is a driver who fits the profile I told you about earlier; he's never won the spring race at Dover. Edwards won the fall race in 2007 and has finished no worse than third in his last five races at Dover.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (7/1)
2009 Autism Speaks 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing's Martin Truex Jr. has already won the Autism Speaks in 2007. In six starts at Dover he has recorded three Top-10s and has an average finish of 11.33 against a starting position of 20.11. Last year the No. 1 Chevrolet finished sixth. Truex Jr. has also has notched two wins at Dover in the Nationwide series. It's one of his most comfortable tracks and he always expects to do well in Delaware.
Pick! Martin Truex, Jr., No.1, (25/1)
2009 Autism Speaks 400- Odds for Top 3 Finish
There are quite a few candidates that look good to finish in the Top 3 at Dover. Unfortunately, only three can come in for this bet to cash. Last week my pick to win the Coca Cola 600 had seemingly the fastest car on the track but finished sixth when NASCAR stopped the race due to rain. This week I like the defending race champion to represent once again (provided that the rain holds off). In 2008 Kyle had the honor of being the only driver to come first and last at the same track: Dover. Joe Gibbs Racing's Busch either does really well or not so good as he has four other Top-5 finishes at Dover but no other Top-10s. Despite this, Kyle leads all drivers this season with three Sprint Cup victories and if he doesn't win he should finish in the Top 3.
One other point; you'll notice the field is set at 10/1 to finish in the Top 3. I think, however, this is a slight over-reaction to the rain shortened Coca Cola 600 and the unlikely winner David Reutimann with Ryan Newman and Robby Gordon rounding out the Top 3 last week. It has certainly been an unpredictable year, which might also count for the relatively short odds. Simply put, this is a sucker bet. At the Monster Mile I recommend laying off the field despite getting a great price.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (3/2)
Docsports.com
Reutimann captures Dover pole, Earnhardt Jr. qualifies 22nd
Dover, DE (Sports Network) - Four days after capturing his first career Sprint Cup Series victory, David Reutimann won Friday's qualifying for the Autism Speaks 400 at Dover International Speedway.
Reutimann grabbed the top starting position for Sunday's 400-mile race at Dover after turning in a lap at 156.794 m.p.h. (22.960 seconds) in his No.00 Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota.
"I think a lot of this has to go to everybody at Michael Waltrip Racing to start with," Reutimann said. "They're giving us great cars. My crew chief, Rodney Childers, obviously made a great decision last weekend, and we unloaded with another great Aaron's Dream Machine this weekend."
Reutimann picked up his second pole of the year and the third of his Sprint Cup career.
During the third rain delay in Monday's rescheduled Coca-Cola 600 at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Reutimann anxiously waited by his car - parked at the front of the field on pit road - for NASCAR to call the race 173 laps short of the 400- lap distance. Shortly after, as rain fell again and track-drying efforts ceased, NASCAR pulled the plug and awarded the 39-year-old driver with his maiden victory in NASCAR's top division. It came in his 75th start.
Reutimann and Childers gambled during a late-race caution. He remained on the track and inherited the lead, while Kyle Busch, who dominated the event with 73 laps led, and several other drivers came onto pit road. The strategy paid off when the red flag was displayed on lap 227 and NASCAR declared the race official hours later.
Kasey Kahne will start alongside Reutimann after posting the second quickest lap at 156.542 m.p.h. (22.997 seconds).
Juan Pablo Montoya qualified third, followed by Reed Sorenson and Greg Biffle.
Kyle Busch, the defending race winner, AJ Allmendinger, Jimmie Johnson, Brian Vickers and Elliott Sadler completed the top-10.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. qualified 22nd one day after team owner Rick Hendrick made a crew chief change at Earnhardt Jr.'s team. Tony Eury Jr. was moved from his crew chief position with the team and placed in a key role in Hendrick's research and development group.
Team manager Brian Whitesell will guide Earnhardt Jr.'s efforts this weekend at Dover, and Lance McGrew will take over as crew chief on an interim basis, starting next week at Pocono.
"Everybody that's on board this weekend is working really hard," Earnhardt Jr. said. "It's been good so far."
Points leader Jeff Gordon will start from the rear of the field in a backup car. Gordon lost control of his car and slapped the wall hard in turn two during the first lap on his qualifying effort. His Chevrolet sustained heavy damage to the right-front side.
"It hurt the car obviously, it's destroyed," Gordon said. "I got into (turn) one, and the car felt good. I got back in the gas, and the back end just came around me just a tiny bit. I tried to correct it...it just shot straight into the wall. That was a hard hit."
Gordon underwent a facet block procedure on his back last week in hopes of alleviating pain that has gotten progressively worse. He currently holds a 44- point lead over Tony Stewart, who will start 31st.
Brad Keselowski, Max Papis, Derrike Cope and David Starr failed to qualify. Keselowski scored his first Cup victory last month at Talladega.
Sunday's race is scheduled to start around 2:00 p.m. (et).
Autism Speaks 400 PostQ
Jimmie Johnson jumps to the top of the PostQ forecast for the race at Dover International Speedway this weekend. Johnson makes the move from 5th position on the PreQ forecast to the 1st position on the PostQ forecast due in large part to ranking No. 1 overall on our Speed chart. Johnson has a very quick car posting the 7th quickest qualifying time but was even better in the practice sessions posting the second fastest time in Happy Hour. Johnson does have three wins in his career at Dover but has not been to victory lane at the track since the 2005 season. If our forecast holds true Johnson will once again be waving the checkers at the end of the Autism Speaks 400.
While Johnson assumes the No. 1 spot on the PostQ Greg Biffle may still be the car to beat this weekend. Biffle loves racing at Dover as he has recorded six straight top 10 finishes including a win in the fall race. He qualified well sitting in the 5th position and was also quick in the practice sessions ranking 12th on our Speed chart. Biffle, like most of the Roush Fenway Racing drivers, gets around the Monster Mile very well. Jump on the #16 3M Ford for this event.
Once again Jeff Burton takes a dramatic fall from the PreQ to the PostQ. Early in the week Burton ranking in the top 5 in the PreQ forecast. He has fallen all the way to the 20th position on the PostQ forecast and he may be lucky to do that well. Burton took a hit in the point standings when the rain shortened Coca-Cola 600 relegated him to a 25th place finish. He has not looked good at all this weekend qualifying well back in the pack, which is always a concern at Dover, in the 32nd position while ranking even worse in our Speed rankings as he was just 40th quickest. It would be a prudent move to avoid the #31 AT&T Chevrolet this weekend.
profantasysports.com
Fastest after Practice at Dover
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Denny Hamlin ran the most laps in both practice sessions Saturday and looks to capitalize at a track that is notorious for long runs. In the Happy Hour session, Hamlin ran the fastest single lap and had good average times despite running several more laps than anyone.
Hamlin and his team were also very confident coming into Dover this weekend because of how well they did at Bristol this year.
"I look at Dover as a faster version of Bristol,” Hamlin said, “That’s about the best comparison you can make – and we are taking our Bristol car there this weekend for that reason. Dover is a really unique place - from the surface to the banking to the pit road. It’s a unique challenge for the teams to go there but it’s a place where we’ve run pretty well in the past even though our results don’t show that.”
Jimmie Johnson ran the 2nd most laps in Happy Hour with the 2nd fastest single lap. He had the fastest average practice speeds among drivers that ran at least 30 laps; Johnson ran 64 laps. He is a 3 time winner at Dover and is brought the same chassis that he finished 4th with last year in the fall. Johnson also ran this chassis to a 2nd place finish at Darlington a few weeks ago. He looks to be the driver to beat this week.
Kyle Busch was fastest in the 1st practice session and 3rd quickest in Happy Hour. Kyle is running his winning chassis from Bristol this week at Dover. The combination of great practices, the Bristol car, his tenacity, and all around success at Dover including winning this race last season make him one of the easy favorites to win.
Martin Truex Jr had some struggles in Saturday’s first practice session. He was very ordinary and spent a lot of time in the garage where his crew worked feverishly to get read for Happy Hour. When the final practice session came, Truex and his team found success and reeled off the 4th fastest lap of the session. This is the site and race of Truex’s only win 2 seasons ago. Look for a good run from a team that really needs it.
Casey Mears continues his upward climb in the speed charts for the 2nd consecutive week with the 5th fastest lap in Happy Hour. Mears had good average times as well after running 46 laps in one of Kevin Harvick’s former chassis’ that was rebuilt and outfitted with a new body for Mears. So far so good for Mears in practice, let’s hope it translates for 400 laps on race day. His best finish at Dover was a 6th two seasons ago.
Greg Biffle was 8th fastest in Happy Hour with good average times which looks to translate into another great Dover run. Last season Biffle was dominant in both Dover races Finishing 3rd in this race while leading the most laps and then winning in the fall.
Mark Martin was 7th fastest in Happy Hour and had very good average times after running 54 laps. He brought his winning Darlington chassis to Dover this week and looks to get his 3rd win of the season and 5th overall at Dover. His last win at Dover came in this race in 2004 with his 3 other wins coming in 3 consecutive fall races ending in 1999.
Best of the Rest
Kasey Kahne, David Reutimann, and Jamie McMurray were all blazing fast in the first practice session Saturday, but only McMurray was able to duplicate similar runs in Happy Hour where he ran the 9th quickest lap. Kahne only ran 27 laps in Happy Hour which was the least amount among the top 30 serious contenders, but did have the 12th fastest lap. Reutimann’s times fell significantly from the two sessions. He went from being 3rd overall early to 21st in 54 laps during Happy Hour.
Drivers to be Weary of
Jeff Gordon slapped the wall hard Friday and had to go to a back up car. During the Saturday practices, Gordon was very mediocre with a 19th in the early session and 17th in Happy Hour. It’s progression, but it doesn’t appear that the back-up is race ready. After a few pit stops, things could change, but as of now, they aren’t typical Gordon.
Dale Earnhardt Jr has so much on his mind right now and coupled with a bad car, things don’t look to get much better. Even with the crew chief change, there isn’t much that be done to the chassis already scheduled to be at Dover and prepared by former chief Tony Eury Jr. There were a lot of Hendrick brass around the 88 Garage during all practice sessions and they all did their best to get the car right. The first practice session Saturday saw a decent lap 14th fastest run in 28 laps, but Happy Hour was a mess, at least until about 10 minutes remained. The only ran 29 laps in Happy Hour and Junior spent a lot of time in the garage. He was only 26th fastest, but it was a vast improvement from where they were which was running with John Andretti and Mike Skinner. At the very end, Junior radioed in that he was finally “Happy” with the car.
Carl Edwards just isn’t the same and it’s no more evident than in practice, a place he used to flex his muscles and horsepower before eventually dominating. It’s a mystery that he could muster only a 20th fastest lap in a car that had such success last season. He brought the same chassis that he ran at Bristol this season and last season. Last season, Edwards won the fall Bristol race start to finish. This season, Edwards started 38th and finished 15th at Bristol. It doesn’t look promising for the driver that has the best average finish in Dover history.
They Should be Good just Because
Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman didn’t dazzle anyone in practice, but they rarely do and yet continue to show up with quality finishes week after week. In Happy Hour, they finished 13th, 14th, and 15th in a row. Kenseth looks to have turned the corner that Edwards is still stuck behind, and Stewart and Newman, well, they just can do whatever they want.
Top Rated after All Practices
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson
2) #18 Kyle Busch
3) #11 Denny Hamlin
4) #16 Greg Biffle
5) #5 Mark Martin