Auto Club 400 Betting News and Notes

Fontana Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 16.941, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.063, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.6, eighth-best
· 222 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.606, seventh-fastest
· 2487 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8), ninth-most
· 676 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Clint Bowyer (No.15 HScott Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Two top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 14.067, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.174, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 90.5, 10th-best
· 74 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.415, 10th-fastest
· 1973 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1), 12th-most
· 627 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Three wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.250, third-best
· Average Running Position of 8.917, second-best
· Driver Rating of 110.0, second-best
· 250 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.977, second-fastest
· 3001 Laps in the Top 15 (81.3), fourth-most
· 808 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 11.941, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.901, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.2, sixth-best
· 144 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.517, ninth-fastest
· 2610 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9), seventh-most
· 788 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.941, second-best
· Average Running Position of 12.690, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.1, fourth-best
· 154 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.751, sixth-fastest
· 2873 Laps in the Top 15 (73.7), fifth-most
· 799 Quality Passes, third-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· One top five, four top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 19.643, 13th-best
Average Running Position of 13.408, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.7, seventh-best
· 72 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.587, eighth-fastest
· 2114 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3), eighth-most
· 601 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 12.941, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.864, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.8, fifth-best
· 171 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.797, fifth-fastest
· 2871 Laps in the Top 15 (73.6), sixth-most
· 776 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Five wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 6.412, series-best
· Average Running Position of 6.044, series-best
· Driver Rating of 119.4, series-best
· 510 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.526, series-fastest
· 3635 Laps in the Top 15 (93.2), series-most
· 827 Quality Passes, series-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.059, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.310, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, ninth-best
· 110 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.335, 11th-fastest
· 2415 Laps in the Top 15 (61.9), 10th-most
· 782 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.118, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 8.990, third-best
· Driver Rating of 106.1, third-best
· 150 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.957, third-fastest
· 3249 Laps in the Top 15 (83.3), second-most
· 758 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 14.000, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 12.838, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 86.1, 12th-best
· 2 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.812, fourth-fastest
· 343 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7), third-most
· 135 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)

· Five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.941, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.123, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.0, 13th-best
· 24 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.092, 13th-fastest
· 2075 Laps in the Top 15 (53.2), 13th-most
· 697 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Brian Vickers (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· One top five, six top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.615, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.659, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.2, 11th-best
· 57 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.283, 12th-fastest
· 1914 Laps in the Top 15 (60.6), 11th-most
· 622 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Auto Club 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It's crazy that we were just anxiously awaiting for NASCAR to begin prior to Daytona and now the 2016 season is already four races old with four different winners.

This week at Auto Club Speedway, we get to see the low downforce package let loose on the wide 2-mile layout. While there was plenty of excitement for the package in two races last season, the jury is still out how its performed this year.

The NASCAR west coast swing comes to end after three straight west races that began with Las Vegas two weeks ago and continued last week at Phoenix. Lets just say results from the first two weren't as sexy as we may have hoped with the new package. Sure Vegas had some wind, but Phoenix was beautiful and despite the fantastic finish, the racing wasn't the best I've seen on the track.

Last season when the package was introduced which shortened the rear spoiler and front splitter, we saw lots of passing. There was outstanding competition with several teams showing they could contend with the power organizations. Drivers absolutely love the package. But I have to call it as I see it, and as much as I have a west coast bias for its NASCAR races, the last two races left feeling me kind of empty.

There were only seven lead changes among four drivers Sunday at Phoenix, where Kevin Harvick again led the most laps (139 of 313) while winning for his track record eighth time. New package, same results, and there appeared to be even a bigger edge for the top guys, which has kind of a reverse effect as was intended by NASCAR with the package.

Will that again be the case at Fontana's 2-mile wide layout this weekend?

Brad Keselowski won his only race of 2015 at Fontana last season where he led just one lap -- the last one. Harvick and teammate Kurt Busch finished second and third while combining to lead 99 of the 209 laps. However, there was a missing element in last years race that is active this week -- Kyle Busch.

Busch missed the race because of a broken leg suffered in the season opening Xfinity Series race at Daytona. The Las Vegas native is a three-time winner at Fontana, including wins in his last two starts there. Prior to the 2013-14 wins, last years Sprint Cup champ had finished second in 2012 and third in 2011. Yes, he loves the track and the track apparently seems to like him as well. He should be considered the favorite to win Sunday. He doesn't just have track history on his side, he's been one of the better drivers since the new package was introduced.

The all-time leader in wins at Fontana is Jimmie Johnson with five in 21 starts, including his first career victory there in 2002. The Ej Cajon, CA native has a 6.7 average finish, also a track record, at what is essentially his home track. His last win there was in 2010 which was the last season when Fontana had two race dates. Johnson's Atlanta win should serve as a good indicator he'll be a force to reckon with on Sunday. Recent history at Fontana hasn't been so hot for him as he's finished ninth or worse the past four years.

Look for the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing team to be almost as good as Kyle Busch with Johnson, Dale Earnhradt Jr., Harvick and Kurt Busch, Joey Logano and Keselowski all being strong contenders to win.

Yes, it's the same cast of characters, isn't it. But the sweeping turns and high speeds at Fontana should allow the low downforce package to produce some great racing.

Matt Kenseth is a three-time winner and Carl Edwards has a win and second-best 8.7 average finish.

The best long shot to win might be Austin Dillon at around 40/1 odds. The Richard Childress Racing driver had strong practices at both Atlanta and Las Vegas with nice final results to boot and both those tracks are applicable this week. He's certainly worth supporting in driver matchups this week.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)

Drivers to Watch - Fontana
By Sportsbook.ag

The Sprint Cup Series drivers will be heading to California for the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. Last week’s race was an exciting one and Kevin Harvick picked up a win and 45 points at Phoenix International Raceway. It was his first win of the season and second top-five finish. He also happens to have won this race in 2011 and will be looking to become one of many who has won multiple championships in Fontana.

One guy that will be extremely excited to be back at Auto Club Speedway is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has won this event three times in his career, which leaves him tied with the retired Jeff Gordon for most wins at this track. Kyle Busch will also be fired up to be back in Fontana, as he has won this event twice in his career and will be hoping to tie Kenseth and Gordon on Sunday.

With that being said, let’s take a look at some of the best value plays this weekend:

Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (8/1) - As previously mentioned, Matt Kenseth has won this race three times in his career and he’ll be eager to win his fourth on Sunday. Kenseth is coming off of an impressive seventh-place finish at the Good Sam 500 last week and has been driving well this season. He was about 30 seconds away from winning the Daytona 500 earlier in the year, but he came away with a disappointing 14th-place finish after a costly mental error. Kenseth just needs to put it all together for one complete race and there’s a good shot that he will do just that on Sunday. Kenseth could have easily been considered the favorite to win this one, but he’s instead getting 8/1 odds. Those are far too good to pass up and putting a few units on him could just pay off this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1) - Earnhardt Jr. has been having an incredible season thus far, winning the Can-Am Duel early in the year and finishing in the top-eight in each of the past three races. He has been driving extremely well this year and is a threat to win every time he is out on the track. This is, however, a race that Earnhardt Jr. has never won. That may not be a bad thing, though, as he will be driven to finally earn a victory here on Sunday. It’s also not like Earnhardt Jr. has performed poorly here in years past. He has two top-five finishes at this race and came in sixth a year ago. At 10/1, he’s a good choice to finally break through.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Keselowski is coming off of a disappointing 29th-place finish at the Good Sam 500, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that he will bounce right back with a win on Sunday. Keselowski is having an excellent season thus far, as he is fourth amongst all drivers in points and notched a victory at the Kobalt 400 two weeks ago. Not only did he win that race, but Keselowski also happens to be the defending champion in the Auto Club 400. His victory was the first of any Ford manufactured driver since 2009 and it’s hard to imagine him not being a threat to win it again on Sunday. His odds are very favorable at 12/1 and he’s worth a few units this weekend.

Austin Dillon (30/1) - There are not many dark horse picks that have a great shot to win this event on Sunday, but Dillon is getting some excellent odds at 30/1 and he will be a threat to win this weekend. He has been in fantastic form early in the season, as his worst finish was when he came in 11th-place in Atlanta. Outside of that, he has three top-10s and he came in fifth at the Kobalt 400. Dillon looks much improved from a year ago and he is somebody that is worth putting a unit on this weekend, as he could pay off big with a victory.