Auto Club 500 HOT! Sheet
Speed weeks brought a lot of pleasant surprises with it. One of those was the run that Reed Sorenson had. In the three races his team competed in, his worst finish was 5th place. During the Bud Shootout, he drew the 6th starting position and maintained it the entire night and went home 5th. After starting back in the pack of the first Gatorade Duel, he fought his way to the top and led a couple of laps before finishing runner-up. Then in the Daytona 500, he started and ended a strong 5th. Look for him to visit victory lane for the first time real soon.
Another nice fantasy racing surprise was Robby Gordon. Although an infraction beforehand eventually nullified his actual effort, he raced to 14th in the second duel and followed that up by weaving through the pack to finish 8th on race day. The 100 points he lost sent him spiraling down in the standings and is extremely costly to a one-car operation. However, it may light a fire under his helmet. And when that happens with Gordon, look out!
The Toyota camp got off to a good start to the 2008 season, including one of their best drivers from a year ago, Brian Vickers. The #83 team ended last season with a run of three top 25s in a row, and that carried over to the first event this season. He had a good showing in qualifying and the Duel, and then raced his way to a 12th place spot on the final rundown sheet. Last year at California, he posted a pair of top 10s. You can probably get him for a decent price, and we do suggest it.
At the very opposite end of our sheet this week are several guys who we know won’t stay there, but their stock did drop a little bit after the first race. That includes Jeff Gordon. The four-time series champion looked to have a good shot at putting another car in the museum at Daytona after a 4th in the Shootout and 3rd in his Duel. But a suspension problem brought all hope to an end with about 15 laps to go in the big show. He may be at his cheapest price all season, so get him if you can.
We will say practically the exact same thing for the man just above him on the chart this week, Matt Kenseth. Although in typical Kenseth style he didn’t have that good of a qualifying effort (28th), he made his way to the front. In fact, he ran inside the top 10 from lap 34 to 160 and at one point led a lap. But on lap 161 his teammate pushed him up the track and in to the wall. The end result was 36th. Again, we’re not saying bench him, but he gets a “buyer beware” label this week.
profantasysports.com
Top 5 and 5 to watch: California
Sporting News
Here's a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday's Auto Club 500 at California Speedway in Fontana. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at California Speedway unless otherwise indicated.
1. Ryan Newman. Newman has accomplished a lot in his young career but has yet to win consecutive races. His driver rating at California is a mediocre 75.6, which ranks 17th. He hasn't had a top 10 at California since February 2005. In terms of completing laps, California ranks 19th among the 23 tracks on which he has raced. He has completed 89.0 percent of his laps on the 2-mile oval. Which leads us to ...
2. Kurt Busch. Busch is the opposite of Newman, his Penske Racing teammate. Busch has completed all but two laps at California and has one win (2003, when he was with Roush). Busch was the polesitter in three of the past four races at California, all since he joined Penske. His driver rating is 95.1, ninth best.
3. Tony Stewart. Stewart is winless at California in 13 races, with six top 10s. Speed has not been a problem. Only Greg Biffle, with 134 laps, has posted more fastest laps in the past three years than Stewart's 130. He leads in green-flag pass differential, 114, and has the fifth-highest driver rating, 101.2. Worth noting is that Joe Gibbs Racing engine whiz Mark Cronquist has been working on the power plant for the car all offseason. He purposely was not part of the team working on the plate engines so he could work ahead.
4. Kyle Busch. What goes in Stewart's car goes in Busch's car. So if one gets a boost, so, too, will Busch and JGR teammate Denny Hamlin (along with the other Toyota drivers). Busch has the third-highest driver rating, 109.3. All five of his California top 10s in seven starts have come in his last five races, including his first Cup win in 2005.
5. Reed Sorenson. If this is Sorenson's breakout year, perhaps it's best to ignore what he has done in the past. So with that in mind, I'll tell you what he has done in the past -- average finish in four races, 26.5; driver rating, 63.7 -- and close by telling you I am ignoring it. Sorenson will post his best California finish Sunday.
Five to watch:
Dale Earnhardt JrThe first of Junior's well-publicized 2007 engine failures happened in this race. Think that'll happen this year? Doubtful. Junior's driver rating is 76.8, but that's all with DEI. Junior gets the Sorenson treatment: We're ignoring his past.
Sam Hornish JrThis is a good second race for Hornish. The cars will spread out, and it'll be all about turning laps. Hornish has a free pass into his first five races (because of 2007 owner points), and if he can turn in three more Daytona-like performances in the next three races -- all on intermediate tracks -- he'll have a nice cushion to emerge from the fifth race, at Bristol, comfortably in the top 35, which is where he needs to be his entire rookie season.
Carl EdwardsEdwards loves this track, as do all Roush Fenway drivers. His average finish in seven races is 7.6; his lone finish outside the top six was 29th in last February's race. His driver rating is 100.6, sixth best.
Jimmie JohnsonJohnson also excels at California, the closest Cup track to his native El Cajon, outside of San Diego. In 10 races he has six finishes in the top three, including two wins. His worst finish is 16th (twice). His driver rating, 111.3, is second only to the driver who is the two-time defending champion of the Auto Club 500 ...
Matt KensethJust the facts: Besides his two wins, he has finished seventh in the second California race three years in a row. ... His driver rating is 113.9. ... He has led a series-high 244 laps over the past three years (six races). ... And for good measure, he has won four Nationwide races at Fontana. For whatever reason, Kenseth is stronger early in the season than later. It all adds up to another top finish, if not a third straight win.
Driver Handicaps: California
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to California Speedway for the Auto Club 500. RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 250-lap event.
Who's HOT at California
# Roush Fenway Racing - Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle have combined to win three of the last six races. Carl Edwards also has finished sixth or better in six of the last seven events.
# Hendrick Motorsports - Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson each have multiple wins, with Gordon's three leading all drivers.
# Kasey Kahne has finished 10th or better in four of his last five starts.
# Kurt Busch has won three poles and captured two top 10s in the last four races.
# Mark Martin leads all drivers with 35 top 10s on 2-mile speedways.
Keep an Eye on at California
# Joe Gibbs Racing - All three drivers (Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart) were happy with the way their Toyotas performed in Preseason Thunder at California.
# Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be making his first start in a Hendrick Motorsports car on a 2-mile speedway.
# Daytona 500 winner Ryan Newman the best Dodge COT in 2007 in terms of finishing average.
# Clint Bowyer has posted a 10.8 average finish in four starts at California.
Track Performers
Jeff Gordon leads all active full-time drivers with five wins, 28 top 10s, eight poles and 1,411 laps led on 2-mile speedways. Carl Edwards, who has made 14 starts, holds the best finishing average on 2-mile tracks at 7.4. Matt Kenseth is second in average at 10.3 and Gordon (10.8), Denny Hamlin (11.0) and Jimmie Johnson (11.2) round out the top five. Part-time drivers Bill Elliott and Mark Martin also have stellar records on 2-mile tracks with both posting seven and five wins, respectively. Martin leads all drivers with 35 top 10s.
California Rookie Report
Regan Smith is the only Rookie of the Year candidate that has made multiple NASCAR starts at California Speedway. He made six combined starts in the Nationwide and Truck Series since 2003, with his best finish (ninth) coming in the NNS event last February. Sam Hornish Jr. has one Nationwide Series start at California that came in February 2007. He qualified in the 16th and finished 36th after an accident took him out of contention. Hornish also has four IndyCar Series starts at California Speedway with an impressive record of two wins and four top-five finishes. Dario Franchitti also visited victory lane in the IndyCar Series, while Patrick Carpentier has raced in both the Champ Car Series and the IRL at California. Rookie Standings
Qualifying Tidbits
Last September, Kurt Busch became the first driver to win three poles at California Speedway. Busch's brother, Kyle, set the qualifying record at 188.425 mph driving in the 2005 February event. Ford's last pole at California came in the September 2005 race with Carl Edwards. Kasey Kahne, the 2004 February pole winner, holds the best starting average among all drivers at 7.1. Eight of the 15 races have been won from outside the top 10 and no one has yet to win from the pole. Past Pole Winners | Starting Positions of California Winners
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Denny Hamlin - FedEx and Hamlin deliver Toyota their first points-paying Cup win in their backyard.
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch - Has won at Fontana before, has the horses in Toyota and a bad taste in his mouth from last week's Daytona disappointment.
Rachael West: Carl Edwards - Edwards was strong in testing in January and holds a 7.8 average finish at California.
Kym Opalenik: Jimmie Johnson - It's his home track, and he's the latest winner there. After his devastating loss at Daytona last week, and with his consistency, he has a very good chance of winning this weekend.
Additional Driver Notes
1. Ryan Newman (Points: 190): Daytona 500 winner Newman will make his 11th California Speedway start and his 226th career Sprint Cup Series start this Sunday. In his previous starts at the speedway, Newman has posted three top-10 finishes - his last coming in the 2005 February race. He won the pole in his first start at the track in 2002 and has gone on to post a total of four more starts of ninth or better. His worst finish, of 42nd, came in the 2003 race when a crash took him out of contention. Newman will be driving the same car (Chassis PRS-525) that was tested at both Las Vegas Motor Speedway and California Speedway during the pre-season.
2. Kurt Busch (Points Behind: -15): In 11 Cup starts at California Speedway, Kurt Busch has captured one victory, three top fives and five top-10 finishes. He also has started from the pole in three out of the last four events. Busch has made four California starts with Penske Racing and has posted an average finish of 14.8 in that span. This weekend Busch will be racing a new car (chassis No. PSC-528) that was tested at California Speedway.
3. Tony Stewart (Points Behind: -20): Stewart has recorded an average finish of 10.0 in his last two races at California Speedway. Stewart saw his worst finish (43rd) at California come in the 2006 February race after the No. 20 Chevrolet lost an engine on lap 214. His best finishes at the track came in 1999 and 2001 with a pair of fourth-place efforts. In the 2005 September race, Stewart scored his third top five - first in five races - with a fifth-place finish. Stewart dominated the 2003 event, leading three times for 100 laps, before a connecting rod broke within the engine, giving him a 41st-place finish.
4. Kyle Busch (Points Behind: -20): Early in his driving career, Kyle Busch had some trouble at California Speedway. He made his debut at the track in this event in 2004, finishing 24th after starting 18th. The following spring, he captured the pole position for the race, but only led three laps en route to a 23rd-place finish. But in the fall of 2005, the tide turned for Busch at California. In that event, he led 95 laps en route to his first career Cup victory. Since then, he has posted four consecutive top 10s and combined to lead 117 laps. This weekend Busch will be making his first non-restrictor-plate start with Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing.
5. Reed Sorenson (Points Behind: -30): Sorenson has posted an average finish of 26.5 in four starts at California Speedway. Earlier this month, Sorenson was second fastest on the final day of testing at the track.
6. Kasey Kahne (Points Behind: -39): In the 2006 September race, Kahne scored his first win at California Speedway after leading 130 laps from the ninth starting position. The win marked his third consecutive finish of sixth or better. Kahne's DNF in this event last year marked only his second finish outside the top 15 in eight starts. In his first two starts, Kahne led a combined 116 laps, won a pole and posted a finishing average of 7.5.
7. Elliott Sadler (Points Behind: -40): This weekend will mark Sadler's fourth California Speedway start with Gillett Evernham Motorsports. His best finish with the team came in the September 2006 race when he led eight laps and finished 13th. Sadler posted his first top-20 finish at California in seven races when he drove the Robert Yates Racing Ford to victory in the 2004 Labor Day event. He followed the win up with his second top-10 finish (8th) in the 2005 February event. His average finish (22.5) is the worst among all active full-time drivers that have at least one victory at the speedway.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Points Behind: -47): Earnhardt Jr. will make his debut at California Speedway in a Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet after capturing four top 10s in 12 starts with Dale Earnhardt Inc. at the Speedway. After five consecutive races, Earnhardt Jr. was finally able to break back into the top 10 category at California Speedway when he finished a career-best second in the September race in 2006. Junior's other top-five finishes (third) came in 2001 after crashing the primary car on Friday and changing the engine on Saturday and in last September's event (fifth). This weekend Earnhardt Jr. will pilot the same car (chassis No. 88-483) that was tested at California Speedway.
9. Robby Gordon (Points Behind: -48): Gordon will look to make up the points he lost at Daytona due to penalties by scoring his first top 20 finish with Robby Gordon Motorsports at California Speedway. Gordon's only top 10 at the 2-mile track came in 2004 when he finished ninth.
10. Greg Biffle (Points Behind: -51): Biffle won his first Sprint Cup race at California Speedway in the February event in 2005. He led 46 laps en route to the win and it was his first finish of 13th or better in five starts at the 2-mile speedway. He followed the win up with another top-five, a runner-up finish after leading 16 laps. In the 2006 February race, Biffle looked to be the man to beat again. Coming off a win in the Busch race on Saturday, Biffle dominated the Cup race, leading 168 laps before a part failure took him out of the race. In the last three races, Biffle has posted an average finish of 18.7. This weekend Biffle will be piloting a new chassis (No. RK-559) that is a replica of the car tested at Las Vegas.
11. Bobby Labonte (Points Behind: -60): This weekend Labonte will be competing in his fifth race with Petty Enterprises at California Speedway. His 11th-place finish last September was his best finish with the team. All of Labonte's five top 10s at California came with Joe Gibbs Racing. He also won the pole for the 2001 race.
12. Jeff Burton (Points Behind: -61): Burton has made seven starts with Richard Childress Racing at California Speedway. In three of the last four races Burton has finished in the top five, including two consecutive fourth-place finishes. Burton's other three top-10 finishes came with Roush Racing from 1998-2000. His career best was a runner-up finish in 1999. This weekend Burton will return in the car (chassis No. 224) that was tested at California.
13. Brian Vickers (Points Behind: -63): California Speedway was the only track Vickers posted two top 10s on in the 2007 season with his new Red Bull Racing Team. Vickers' previous six starts at the 2-mile track came with Hendrick Motorsports where he posted one pole and one top-five finish.
14. Kevin Harvick (Points Behind: -69): California Speedway is one of three tracks on the circuit where Harvick has yet to post a top-five finish. In seven out of 11 races at the 2-mile speedway, Harvick has failed to finish inside the top 15. His best performance (sixth), and second top 10, came in the 2005 February race. This weekend Harvick will be racing a new car (chassis No. 238).
16. Denny Hamlin (Points Behind: -73): Hamlin is coming off his worst finish (19th) at California Speedway after cutting a tire under caution late in the race. His only top 10 in four starts came in the 2006 September race when he finished sixth. Last year in the event, Hamlin flew through the field early in the race to move from 17th to third before handling issues became an issue. He wound up finishing 11th. The team's primary car for the weekend is chassis 196. This car is the same one that was tested at California earlier this month.
17. Dale Jarrett (Points Behind: -75): Jarrett only qualified for this event last year with Michael Waltrip Racing. he finished 32nd in that event and it lowered his overall finishing average to 18.3. All off Jarrett's previous starts at California Speedway came with Robert Yates Racing where he posted six top 10s. This weekend will mark his last career start at California.
18. David Reutimann (Points Behind: -81): Reutimann has posted an average finish of 32.5 in his two starts at California Speedway. Last year in this event, Reutimann finished 33rd after a crash took him out of contention.
19. Carl Edwards (Points Behind: -84): Last year in this event, Edwards ended a streak of five consecutive top 10s at California Speedway after finishing 29th. He bounced back in the September race to score his best finish at the track in second. Edwards' six top 10s help give him an overall average finish of 7.6. The weekend he will be carrying the Dish Network colors on chassis No. RK-540. This is the same car that posted some fast times in the California test.
20. Martin Truex Jr. (Points Behind: -87): Martin Truex Jr. suffered a disappointing DNF, resulting in a 42nd-place finish, at California Speedway in the this event last year due to engine problems. He rebounded in the second race to post his first top 10 (sixth) in four starts.
23. Clint Bowyer (Points Behind: -94): California Speedway is one of Bowyer's top five tracks based on his finishing average of 10.8. Last September his average slipped due to a 20th-place finish. Bowyer, who finished sixth in this event last year, will be racing the same car (chassis No. 237) that was tested at California.
26. Jimmie Johnson (Points Behind: -103): This weekend Johnson returns to the site of his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win, which was scored back on April 28, 2002, in his first start at California Speedway. Since then, Johnson has finished no worse than 16th and has three second-place finishes and another win last September. In both of his victories, Johnson led a combined 146 of his track total of 219 laps. This weekend he will debut the ca (chassis No. 48465) that was tested at California.
27. Jamie McMurray (Points Behind: -105): McMurray's worst finishes at California Speedway have come in the last three respective events in 20th, 37th and 16th. His best finish with Roush Fenway Racing came in his first track start with the team in 2006 when he scored his fifth overall top 10 with a sixth-place finish. His previous five starts came with Chip Ganassi Racing where he posted an average finish of 7.2. The only time McMurray has led at California came in his first start in 2003 when he held the No. 42 Dodge out front for 41 laps.
28. Michael Waltrip (Points Behind: -109): Waltrip will be attempting to start in his 15th race at California Speedway. Last year he only qualified for the second race and went on to finish 42nd after a fiery crash. His two top-10 finishes at the track came with Dale Earnhardt Inc.
31. Mark Martin (Points Behind: -120): Last year in this event, Martin finished fifth in his first start at California Speedway in a Chevrolet. His previous 13 starts all came with Roush Fenway Racing where he posted seven top 10s, including a win in 1998.
32. Juan Pablo Montoya (Points Behind: -123): This weekend Montoya will be making his third Sprint Cup start at California Speedway. Last year in this event, he captured his best finish (26th) after falling a lap down due to an untimely caution. Montoya clinched the 1999 CART championship with Chip Ganassi Racing with a fourth-place finish at California. In addition, he made another start there in the 2000 CART Series finale.
35. Matt Kenseth (Points Behind: -130): Kenseth has won the last two races in February and has finished seventh in the last three Labor Day events at California Speedway. His 10.3 average finish leads all drivers that have made more than 11 starts at the track and his 379 laps led is only second to Jeff Gordon. Kenseth, who also has won four Nationwide races at Fontana, will be racing the same car (chassis No. RK-550) that was tested at Las Vegas and California Speedway.
36. Casey Mears (Points Behind: -132): Mears has made nine starts at California Speedway and has finished in the top 10 twice with Chip Ganassi Racing. Last February, he finished 31st in his first track start with Hendrick Motorsports. Mears also has competed in the CART and Busch Series at the two-mile track. His best finishes in a stock car there came in the Busch Series where he took the runner-up spot twice. This weekend he will be racing the same car (chassis No. 479) that was tested at California.
37. Dave Blaney (Points Behind: -136): Blaney has yet to score a top-25 finish with Bill Davis Racing in four starts at California Speedway. His last two finishes of 39th and 38th, respectively, have resulted from engine failures. This weekend Blaney will pilot chassis No. 11, which was rebuilt in the off season after racing in 2007.
39. Jeff Gordon (Points Behind: -139): Gordon is one of three drivers that has scored multiple victories at California Speedway. His three victories, seven top fives, and 457 laps led currently leads all drivers. His finishing average (11.8) is the best among all drivers that have competed in every event since 1997. Last year in this event, Gordon won his second track pole.
42. David Ragan (Points Behind: -153): California Speedway is one of Ragan's best tracks based on his 14.0 finishing average.
Auto Club 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
The Old Man, Mark Martin, will be honored for his 700th start as the high-octane road show that is the National Stock Car Association travels to California Speedway in Fontana for the next stop on the Chase for the Sprint Cup on at 3:30 p.m. Those looking for a return on their Sunday afternoon NASCAR investment need to look no further than sportsbook.com where, despite their poor showing and engine difficulties at Daytona, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon are listed as 6/1 favorites to win the race.
Here are a few thoughts after the Daytona 500. Congrats to Ryan Newman and Team Penske for a great win at Daytona. Enjoy it because there may not be too many more wins this season. Does the long hair mean we have a kinder, gentler Tony Stewart? Not! But I'd say the honeymoon at Gibbs Racing between Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart is off to a roaring start if we can judge a relationship by one race. And I do. The new teammates worked really well together and these two could prove to be a dangerous combination as the season progresses. Perhaps this year Busch can help keep Stewart from running out of gas halfway through the season. What happened to HMS? Sure, they had engine troubles leading up to the race but Junior saved face for the team. Yep, Junior is going to win a few for HMS that is for sure.
Aside from restrictor plates, another huge difference between Daytona last week and California Speedway this week is custom aerodynamics. At Daytona the rear wing set is mandated at 10 degrees with a one-inch downdraft thickness but at Fontana the spoiler can be set anywhere between zero and 16 degrees with the down force thickness of as little as 3/16ths of an inch. Unlike Daytona, California tracks and other down force tracks give teams leeway on how they want to set up their cars to best handle the CoT. The front splitter still has to be four inches above the ground but teams can choose whether they want to bring it all the way forward to increase the down force or leave it al the way back like they did last week at Daytona. So the emphasis will be on how the crew and the drivers work together on the aerodynamic adjustments to earn a nano-second edge over the competition; the difference between winning and losing our wager.
Who will win the Auto Club 500?
Dodge dominated last weekend by putting six cars in the top eight with Toyota contributing the other two cars. However, Chevrolet owned Fontana last year doing everything but winning the checkered flag. Chevy captured seven of the top nine spots, but Matt Kenseth's Ford won starting out of the 25th position and paid off at (8/1) odds. Pole sitter Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top three places while (4/1) favorite Tony Stewart finished the race in eighth place. Granted, Toyota has probably made the greatest strides this year of all the manufacturers and the added competition has definitely made it harder to handicap the outcome of each race. Certainly their obvious power makes them a contender at California's big intermediate track.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Kurt Busch win the pole again this year as he has won the pole three out of the last four races at Fontana. You won't find my money backing him if he does since he has never finished better than seventh place when starting from first. The last time Busch won this race was 2003. If you are going by last year's pattern -- HMS won half of the races last season -- it would be safe to assume a HMS driver will win this week in California. That gives us Junior (10/1), Johnson (6/1), Gordon (6/1) and Mears (35/1) as likely candidates. You can throw out Mears, so one strategy might incorporate throwing a buck down on each Gordon, Johnson and Junior, so if one of them hits the worst you'll do is double your money. This is one strategy going into the race, but not mine. It's easy to get torn between all three drivers and Junior's race at Daytona has me driven to distraction about California; almost, but not quite.
The teams I am looking at and was most impressed with last weekend, other than Penske and Dodge, was Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing. It's truly remarkable how far Toyota has come in such a short period of time. The match between Toyota, JGR and Busch might be inspired like when Gates, Balmer and Allen started hanging out. Plainly put: Toyota's engines were the bomb last week and that bodes well this week since on a big intermediate track big horsepower can and will win or lose the race. Kyle Busch looks like he's having a blast over at Joe Gibbs and with a little help from his friends he could win on Sunday. Heck, Busch even has the highest recorded qualifying speed at this track at 188 and change in 2005 and he wasn't driving a Toyota. Like green M&Ms, money makes me horny.
Pick! Kyle Busch 12/1
Auto Club 500 Matchups
It couldn't have come much closer, or further away, last weekend as Stewart almost won the 50th Annual Daytona 500, finishing third and costing us as we backed Johnson at -1.20. Our second matchup pitted fourth wheel at HMS, Casey Mears, against Clint Bowyer, and much like our pick to win Daytona, we were victim of HMS dusting off the engines, as it were. This matchup was not even close as those who backed the 07 car won +1.05 on the race. Mears ended a disappointing 35th while Bowyer had to overcome some bumping and bruising early on in the race to finish in 24th. We won our match-up between Hamlin and Edwards. We backed Hamlin at -1.30 and his 17th place was better than Edwards 19th. The win not withstanding, I am in a hole early with my NASCAR picks to the tune of -3.15 and a 1-2 record eating chalk on the Super Speedway. With 35 races to go I figure there is more than enough time to recoup this minor setback.
Jimmie Johnson -1.30/Matt Kenseth Even
This great matchup pits two-time Auto Parts 500 defending champion Kenseth against perennial second place finisher Johnson. In fact, you'd have to go all the way back to 2002 when this race was called the NAPA Auto Parts 500 to find Johnson's name as the winner. From 2004-2006 Johnson finished this race in second place and in 2007 came in third. So it is safe to say that if anyone owns Johnson at California it is Kenseth. This is probably one of the few times I'll go against Johnson in a matchup this season.
Pick! Matt Kenseth Even
Kevin Harvick -1.05/Mark Martin -1.25
At last year's Auto Club 500 Martin finished fifth and Harvick finished 17th. This year's edition of the race will be historic in that the old man, Mark Martin, will race in his 700th consecutive race. We're talking Cal Ripken-esque longevity in a sport, folks. They'll pull out all the stops due the occasion but when it comes down to it he'll still have to race and it is doubtful that the other drivers will let him win because it's a milestone moment. Last season in Martin's first five races he had four top-five finishes and five top-10 finishes; a feat that won't happen this year.
Pick! Kevin Harvick -1.05
Greg Biffle -1.60/Kasey Kahne 1.30
Biffle finished the race in 42nd place in 2005 after starting second, last year he finished 15th and in 2004 at the Pop Secret 500 he finished 35th after starting in seventh. This does not bode well for Rousch Fenway Racing. Fact is that Biffle has had trouble at Fontana. Funny enough, Kahne, powered by Dodge, last year went from second to 35th at the Auto Club 500. Kahne also finished 40th in 2005. But it was in Fontana in 2006 that Kahne finished fourth and then finished fourth at the UAW 500 and win the Golden Corral the following week. I like Kahne as the dog in this spot - especially after the prowess we saw from Dodge last week.
Pick! Kasey Kahne 1.30
Docsports.com
Two-time defending race champion Kenseth unsure if he should be favorite
February 22, 2008
FONTANA, Calif. (AP) -Matt Kenseth goes for his third straight victory in the Auto Club 500 at California Speedway. Still, he's not sure he should be considered a favorite.
``I never thought we'd win two, so you never really know,'' Kenseth said, coming off a 36th-place finish in last weekend's season-opening Daytona 500.
But the 2003 NASCAR champion certainly hasn't lost confidence as he approaches Sunday's race at a track that has treated him well.
In his last five Cup races on the 2-mile California oval, Kenseth has seventh-place finishes in the last three fall events to go with those two wins. He will also go into Saturday's Nationwide event having won four times and added six other top 10 finishes in 13 starts at the track in what was previously the Busch Series.
``I always feel pretty confident going to California,'' Kenseth said. ``It's been one of our better tracks throughout our time in the Nationwide Series and in the Cup series, and it's one I certainly look forward to.
``It's just a real big, wide track. You get a lot of speed, especially this new car has less drag, so you really go fast down the straightaways. It's got some pretty big corners where you can run around the bottom or you can run up high and you're always kind of searching for a groove, so it's always a lot of fun.''
Kenseth is also hoping that the return to the track 50 miles east of Los Angeles will help him build some momentum after a crash ended his race early at Daytona.
Kenseth this year is no longer working with longtime crew chief Robbie Reiser, who was promoted last fall to general manager of Roush Fenway. Reiser stayed on as crew chief to the end of 2007. Replacement Chip Bolin, who has worked with Kenseth and Reiser the past 10 years, was given more responsibilities during those events to acclimate him to the new job.
``We got to do a five- or six-race trial last year and everything was good there,'' said Kenseth, who finished the season with five straight top-five finishes, including a season-ending victory at Homestead.
``I know Chip is going to do a great job,'' Kenseth said. ``He's done a great job so far. He's been very involved and a big part of the team ever since its inception, so I'm not super worried about that part.
``Certainly the new car is a challenge,'' he added, referring to the Car of Tomorrow, which is making its California race debut this week. ``But, on the other hand, having one car to work on for the year, instead of two, I think will make it a little easier on the engineering staff and easier on the crew chiefs and everybody else. So I feel pretty good about it.''
The strong finish last year kept spirits on the No. 17 Ford team high over the winter and heading to Daytona.
And it appeared the new pairing might pay off big when Kenseth, who started 28th in the 43-car Daytona field, quickly worked his way into the top 10. He then briefly took the lead just past the halfway point in NASCAR's biggest event.
Kenseth was still in the top 10 with 40 laps to go when David Ragan slid up the track and the two cars wound up in the wall.
``We had a disappointing finish, but we made some great adjustments on the car,'' Kenseth said. ``We went from being good to getting it off to figuring out how to fix it and being pretty competitive right before we got wrecked.''
Kenseth's focus now is regaining momentum.
``You always want to win,'' he said. ``If you won the week before or you won the year before or whatever it is, you always want to win. That's the goal.
``Obviously, the longer you go in between wins, the more desperate you feel toward it, or the more you're worried about ever winning again. That's how I get anyway.''
Friday practice and Qualifying for the Auto Club 500 at Auto Club Speedway has been cancelled due to rain/wet track and the field will be be set by the rules book, top-35 in 2007 owners pts, one 2007 race winner, two past champs, three who in the top 35 in 2008 owners pts, then two by 2008 race attempts [ties broken my 2008 owners pts pos]. So #2-Busch [won a race in 2007], then #44-Jarrett and #21-Elliott in by the past champ, then #83-Vickers, #00-Reutimann and #55-Waltrip who are in the 2008 top 35 of owners pts, then #34-Andretti and #78-Nemechek [1 attempt, 40th and 41st in 2008 owners pts]. Five teams/driver who will not make the race are: #84-Allmendinger, #49-Schrader, #10-Carpentier, #27-Skinner and #08-Lamar.
STARTING LINEUP
1 48 Jimmie Johnson Chevy 1st in 2007 owners pts
2 24 Jeff Gordon Chevy 2nd
3 07 Clint Bowyer Chevy 3rd
4 17 Matt Kenseth Ford 4th
5 5 Casey Mears Chevy 5th
6 20 Tony Stewart Toyota 6th
7 77 Sam Hornish Jr. # Dodge 7th
8 31 Jeff Burton Chevy 8th
9 99 Carl Edwards Ford 9th
10 29 Kevin Harvick Chevy 10th
11 1 Martin Truex Jr. Chevy 11th
12 11 Denny Hamlin Toyota 12th
13 12 Ryan Newman Dodge 13th
14 16 Greg Biffle Ford 14th
15 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevy 15th
16 8 Mark Martin Chevy 16th
17 01 Regan Smith # Chevy 17th
18 26 Jamie McMurray Ford 18th
19 43 Bobby Labonte Dodge 19th
20 9 Kasey Kahne Dodge 20th
21 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Dodge 21st
22 18 Kyle Busch Toyota 22nd
23 41 Reed Sorenson Dodge 23rd
24 6 David Ragan Ford 24th
25 96 J.J. Yeley Toyota 25th
26 40 Dario Franchitti # Dodge 26th
27 19 Elliott Sadler Dodge 27th
28 7 Robby Gordon Dodge 28th
29 15 Paul Menard Chevy 29th
30 28 Travis Kvapil Ford 30th
31 66 Scott Riggs Chevy 31st
32 38 David Gilliland Ford 32nd
33 70 Jeremy Mayfield Chevy 33rd
34 22 Dave Blaney Toyota 34th
35 45 Kyle Petty Dodge 35th
36 2 * Kurt Busch Dodge 2007 race winner
37 44 * Dale Jarrett Toyota Past Champ Prov 1999
38 21 * Bill Elliott Ford Past Champ Prov 1988
39 83 * Brian Vickers Toyota 13th in 2008 owners pts
40 00 * David Reutimann Toyota 18th
41 55 * Michael Waltrip Toyota 28th
42 34 * John Andretti Chevy 1 attempt 40th in 2008 owners pts
43 78 * Joe Nemechek Chevy
Jayski.com
Auto Club 500: Roush Racing Hits SoCal
by: Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: So close. We took Kurt Busch at +1200 odds, and Busch made a great final push, sending his teammate Ryan Newman to a win in the Daytona 500, but leaving us holding just a second-place ticket. Fortunately for us, in a disappointingly not-so-exciting 500, Jeff Gordon's car broke before Jimmie Johnson got wrecked out of the race, so we still did connect with our -110 head-to-head wager on the week. That gave us a winner in the first event of the season: we made .41 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 27.3%. Not a bad way to start the year. (Note that if you eschewed the conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply put one unit on every wager we recommend, you'd have lost 2.09 units on 4 units wagered. But it'll get better. Hopefully.)
Take Carl Edwards (+700), 1/6th unit. Hey, isn't this week's race suppose to be in Southern California? Then what the heck were the cars doing covered in plastic wrap all day on Friday? That's right, the season truly begins under a dark cloud: practice and qualifying were rained out in SoCal, which means the cars will roll off Sunday in the order they finished the season last year. So read absolutely nothing into the fact that Edwards will begin this race ninth. But do read something into the fact that King Carl was fastest in testing here just a couple weeks ago. Roush is typically very strong at the two-milers in Fontana and Michigan, and Edwards has done everything but win a race at this venue: in the seven times he's run here in a Cup event, Edwards has finished in the top six on six different occasions. He's got a great chance to post his first win of '08 on Sunday.
Take Matt Kenseth (+700), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Edwards, his fellow Roushketeer in the No. 17 makes a mighty fine bet as well. Kenseth has won two of the last four events in Fontana (the most recent two spring races here, as a matter of fact). The last time Milwaukee Matt visited Victory Lane was here in February of '07, and he hasn't failed to finish inside the top seven at this track in five straight Cup races. I won't be surprised to see him go backwards to begin the race (he'll start fourth because of owner points), but that's simply his modus operandi. He'll improve the car, make a late run, and be there at the end.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+500), 1/6th unit. Is it an adventurous wager? Well, no. But is it smart? Um, yeah. As the defending points champ, J.J. starts on the pole this Sunday, but of course, that tells us nothing about whether his car will be fast. This just in: his car will be fast. Only his teammate Jeff Gordon (+600) was better in the Car of Tomorrow last year, and no one has a better finishing average at Fontana (5.8) over the last three seasons. Johnson cruised to a big win here in the "old car" last fall, and while this is the first time the CoT will run a race at a true downforce track, and thus it remains to be seen how well the cars will be able to pass, bet on J.J. to set up his racecar loose and be very, very fast.
spreadexperts.com
Cup race postponed after 87 laps
Mon 25th, February 2008
Fontana, CA (Sports Network) - Jimmie Johnson will lead the field to the green flag to restart the race on Monday at 12:45 p.m. (et) after a third rain storm halted the race 87 laps into the 250-lap Auto Club 500 at the Auto Club Speedway (formerly California Speedway). NASCAR officials tried to dry the track, but finally gave up at 2 a.m. (et).
Behind Johnson will be Travis Kvapil, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne. Jeff Gordon is sixth, defending champion Matt Kenseth is 14th and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 40th after being involved in a crash.
The rain that had disrupted both Friday and Saturday race activities continued through Sunday and delayed the start of the race by more than two hours, but finally the call to "start your engines" came just past 6:15 p.m. (et) and the race began a few minutes later.
Johnson sat on the pole, but it was Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon who led the first lap and gained five bonus points. Gordon was flying building a two-second lead by lap four.
On lap 10, two-time Auto Club 500 champion made an unscheduled pit stop with an overheating engine. The team quickly pulled off debris from the front grill, but the 2003 Sprint Cup Series champion fell a lap down to the field.
Gordon's big lead lasted until lap 14 when Denny Hamlin slapped the outside wall following a tire failure. He blamed weepers for the incident. A weeper is water pushing through a crack in the surface from below because of previous rain storms.
Kevin Harvick had been pitting just as the Hamlin accident happened (overheating) and his bad luck turned into good, keeping him on the lead lap when the incident happened.
Gordon let Johnson lead one lap and then charged back to the lead. Then on lap 20, Casey Mears got spun around and Dale Earnhardt Jr. tried to slip underneath him, but couldn't make it, getting collected along with Reed Sorenson and Sam Hornish Jr.
"I think I hit some water (from a weeper)," said Mears. "There were a few in (turn) one and more in (turn) three."
"The track's real dirty and everybody's sliding around," said Earnhardt Jr. "The track ain't ready today. The track's dirty, and this was a bad move."
NASCAR brought out the red flag to get the drivers out and clean up all the debris. They also tried to dry up the seeping water, but it seemed to be a losing battle. They even tried cutting grooves in the track to allow the water to get out and that finally seemed to do the trick. After a 70-minute delay, the engines were fired again.
Again, Gordon opened up a two-second lead on his teammate as the field passed the 30-lap mark. But he was complaining that his water temperature was climbing. Would he have to stop to clean debris off his front grill?
He slowed to let Johnson go by and hope that the air flow would knock the debris off. It did and Gordon's water temperature fell back to the normal level.
Gordon flew around Johnson and was leading on lap 39 when the rain began to fall again. Seven laps under yellow and the green flag dropped to restart the race.
By lap 50, Carl Edwards joined the two Hendrick cars to see what he could do. And Kyle Busch, who had an overheating problem and had to restart the race in 37th, was just outside the top-10.
Gordon, Edwards and Johnson built a three-second margin on fourth place as Edwards was showing he was equal to the two HMS stars.
Jeff Burton, in the No.31 RCR Chevrolet, took just two tires to grab the lead and five bonus points after a Jeremy Mayfield flat tire caused the fourth caution flag. But with only two new right-side tires, he quickly fell back through the field.
Gordon, Johnson Edwards were one-two-three, but the man on the move was Busch, who flew past Greg Biffle and Burton for fifth place just before caution flag No.5.
Biffle used a two-tire stop to move ahead of the Gordon and Johnson and he easily passed Jamie McMurray, who stayed out on old tires, for the lead on lap 73.
Biffle was holding the lead at about one second over Johnson despite having only put on two right-side tires at the last stop. Another caution flag and this time when the leaders came in, Biffle took four tires, coming out fourth.
Before the green flag dropped on lap 85, the bad weather began again, and NASCAR called off the restart. The rain got heavier and NASCAR called the cars down pit lane for a second red flag.
They never restarted the race and officials rescheduled the race for Monday at 12:45 p.m. The rain also forced the Nationwide race, to be started one hour after the Sprint Cup race was over, to move to Monday as well.
Edwards outduels reigning NASCAR champion to win in California
February 25, 2008
FONTANA, Calif. (AP) -Carl Edwards won the rain-delayed Auto Club 500 on Monday, charging past NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson with 13 laps remaining.
Johnson, winner of the past two Cup titles, came out of the final pit stop in the lead with 26 laps left. But Edwards came from third to capture the eighth victory of his career.
Edwards showed good form on his traditional victory backflip in front of the main grandstand after taking the checkered flag in a race that ended under caution when Dale Jarrett spun on the final lap.
Edwards had it all but wrapped up at that point, driving his Roush Fenway Racing No. 99 Ford to a lead of more than four seconds over Johnson. It was his first victory at Fontana but his seventh top-10 finish in eight starts at Auto Club Speedway, formerly known as California Speedway.
``Well, it looked like Jimmie was the guy to beat at the end,'' Edwards said. ``It was fun racing with him. I want to thank Bob (Osborne, the crew chief) and all my teammates for working so hard this winter.''
Jeff Gordon, who dominated Sunday's racing, was third. He was followed by Kyle Busch and Roush's Matt Kenseth, who had won the two previous February races at this track. Another Roush driver, Greg Biffle, won this event in 2005.
The Roush Fenway team got off to a slow start with NASCAR's new Car of Tomorrow that was introduced with a 16-race schedule in 2007. It was Johnson, Gordon and their Hendrick Motorsports teammates that dominated the CoT race last year.
But, with the new car running the full schedule this season, it appears Roush Fenway has figured it out.
``Carl Edwards was in another league. We've got some work to do to catch those guys,'' said Gordon, whose engine blew seconds before the last of 12 caution flags in the race froze the field and assured his third-place finish.
Gordon, a four-time Cup champion, and teammate Johnson, who finished 1-2 in points last year, got off to a tough start last week at Daytona. They finished 39th and 27th.
``It's a good rebound from Daytona and we'll roll on,'' said Johnson, who won 10 races last season. ``I was too loose off the corners to do anything with Carl.''
Johnson said the new car performed well on the two-mile oval at the track formerly known as California Speedway.
``Maybe another practice session would have helped,'' Johnson added, referring to all the track time lost to rain Friday and Saturday. ``I think it would have helped the whole field.''
About 25,000 fans, far short of the approximate 120,000 capacity, showed up Monday, with the sun peeking out from high clouds and temperatures moving into the high 60s.
The drivers spent most of Sunday waiting through rain, track drying and attempts to stop water seeping through seams of the track. The race finally began about 2 1/2 hours late, followed by a rain delay of just more than an hour and then a five-hour wait after a downpour. NASCAR and track officials finally gave up after 11 p.m. and postponed the conclusion until Monday.
Accidents during Sunday's 87 laps involved Dale Earnhardt Jr., Casey Mears, Sam Hornish Jr., Reed Sorenson and Denny Hamlin. Only Mears and Hornish were unable to get back into the action.