Bank of America 500 Betting News and Notes

Charlotte Driver Tale of the Tape

1 - Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.8

2013 Rundown
· Seven wins, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.7
· Led 21 races for 1,401 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, seven top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.2 in 28 races
· Average Running Position of 14.3, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.3, fourth-best
· 3,947 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6%), sixth-most
· 732 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

2 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.1

2013 Rundown
· Five wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.7
· Led 18 races for 1,429 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Six wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 11.9 in 24 races
· Series-best Average Running Position of 8.1
· Series-best Driver Rating of 110.0
· 549 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 176.803 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 5,255 Laps in the Top 15 (86.1%)
· Series-high 879 Quality Passes

3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John’s Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 94.1

2013 Rundown
· Three wins, eight top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.0
· Led 10 races for 191 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 17.3 in 25 races
· Average Running Position of 18.3, 19th-best
· Driver Rating of 77.8, 18th-best
· 1,350 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· 3,206 Laps in the Top 15 (52.5%), 10th-most
· 571 Quality Passes, 11th-most

4 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Axalta Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.4

2013 Rundown
· Seven top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.4
· Led 13 races for 278 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Five wins, 16 top fives, 21 top 10s; eight poles
· Average finish of 16.2 in 41 races
· Average Running Position of 15.7, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.1, ninth-best
· 193 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 1,181 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 176.050 mph, seventh-fastest
· 3,523 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), ninth-most
· 649 Quality Passes, eighth-most

5 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 102.2

2013 Rundown
· Four wins, 14 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 13.5
· Led 16 races for 1,200 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Eight top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.5 in 19 races
· Average Running Position of 9.9, second-best
· Driver Rating of 107.2, second-best
· 434 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 176.833 mph
· 4,821 Laps in the Top 15 (79.0%), second-most
· 870 Quality Passes, second-most

6 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.2

2013 Rundown
· One win, four top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.4
· Led 4 races for 117 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.1 in 21 races
· Average Running Position of 14.6, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.1, sixth-best
· 302 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 1,223 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 176.081 mph, fourth-fastest
· 3,784 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), seventh-most
· 666 Quality Passes, seventh-most

7 - Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Denver Mattress Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 94.4

2013 Rundown
· 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.5
· Led 13 races for 441 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· One win, six top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 19.1 in 26 races
· Average Running Position of 17.3, 17th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.1, 11th-best
· 200 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 3,105 Laps in the Top 15 (50.9%), 12th-most

8 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Time Warner Cable Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.8

2013 Rundown
· Six top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.0
· Led 11 races for 255 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 19.6 in 27 races
· Average Running Position of 20.3, 24th-best
· Driver Rating of 78.2, 17th-best
· 146 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 1,284 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 175.727 mph, 13th-fastest

9 - Clint Bowyer (No. 15 Raspberry 5-hour ENERGY-Living Beyond Breast Cancer Toyota)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.3

2013 Rundown
· Eight top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.4
· Led 8 races for 291 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· One win, two top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 15.8 in 15 races
· Average Running Position of 17.1, 15th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.7, 14th-best

10 - Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil / Hertz Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.2

2013 Rundown
· One win, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.7
· Led 12 races for 282 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Three top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 9.6 in nine races
· Average Running Position of 14.3, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 88.9, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 175.899 mph, 11th-fastest

11 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 Fastenal Ford)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.6

2013 Rundown
· Two wins, nine top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.7
· Led 12 races for 448 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Five top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.9 in 17 races
· Average Running Position of 15.0, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.5, seventh-best
· 123 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 1,386 Green Flag Passes, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 175.867 mph, 12th-fastest
· 3,676 Laps in the Top 15 (60.2%), eighth-most
· 681 Quality Passes, fifth-most

12 - Ryan Newman (No. 39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 81.5

2013 Rundown
· One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.2
· Led 13 races for 93 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Four top fives, nine top 10s; nine poles
· Average finish of 19.6 in 25 races
· Average Running Position of 18.1, 18th-best
· Driver Rating of 76.8, 20th-best

13 - Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Quaker State Chevrolet)

· Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 97.0

2013 Rundown
· Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.6
· Led 7 races for 497 laps

Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
· Four wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.9 in 19 races
· Average Running Position of 11.8, third-best
· Driver Rating of 100.5, third-best
· Series-high 593 Fastest Laps Run
· 4,129 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), fourth-most
· 782 Quality Passes, third-most

Bank of America 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Jimmie Johnson may not have won last Sunday’s race Kansas Speedway, but his sixth-place finish -- coupled with point leader Matt Kenseth’s 11th-place finish -- did enough to impress Las Vegas so much that he is now the 5/7 (Bet $140 to win $100) favorite to win the Sprint Cup with six races remaining in NASCAR’s version of the playoffs.

Even though Johnson is still three points behind Kenseth, and Kenseth has three more favorable 1.5-mile tracks to race on, the LVH SuperBook thought enough of Johnson’s consistency over his last four Chase races to raise him considerably higher than Kenseth’s 5/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $125). Basically, we’ve seen this out of Johnson before as he’s won more Chase races than anyone in NASCAR history while Kenseth is kind of new to being the top dog.

Kenseth does have a Cup title to his credit, but that came in 2003, one year before the Chase was implemented. It is said by many that the entire Chase process was thought up because of Kenseth’s rather boring championship run that year which saw him win only one race on the season, but still win the title.

In all the other sports, we like to talk about nerves and how a pitcher deals with the emotions of a big moment or stage he’s never been on, or a quarterback starting for the first time on the road. Even though Kenseth has been racing in the Cup series since the 2000 season, two years longer than Johnson, he doesn’t have the same database on similar situations to feed off of like Johnson has acquired in winning five championships under the Chase format.

Granted, winning in NASCAR is usually about the car and less about the driver, but for that 30 percent that may come down to the driver, Johnson is the driver most would want to have their money on. So from more than an odds standpoint on what risk the LVH might have on the two drivers, a factor that was involved is the perception of what the public is thinking. In most cases, or least five of the last seven season, we’ve seen Johnson come out ahead.

This week’s race at Charlotte will be the ninth event on 1.5-mile tracks. Kevin Harvick won the first race there in May and also took home the checkers last week in Kansas. His two wins on these type of tracks should give him and his team plenty of confidence this week, and also later at Texas and Homestead. He’s only 25-points behind Kenseth and has been posted at 15/1 odds to win the Sprint Cup and he’ll be around 15/1 to win this week’s race.

Kenseth will be the favorite this week and comes in with two Charlotte wins over his career, including his first career win in 2000 as a rookie. He won this race in the fall of 2011, but what mostly sets him apart as the favorite here beyond anything he’s done specifically at Charlotte is his four wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season. However, the one negative for Kenseth is that none of his wins came on the high baked tracks like Texas, Atlanta or Charlotte.

Kyle Busch dropped down to fifth in the standings, 35-points behind Kenseth, after an accident caused a 34th-place finish at Kansas. It ended his run of three straight top-5s in the Chase, but he looked doomed for a terrible weekend after crashing in practice as well. Is Busch resorting back to old his Chase failures now? Is this the beginning of the end? I don’t think so, and it’s just because of Charlotte being a track he has run well at despite never grabbing a win there. On the high banked tracks where Kenseth failed to win at, Busch has two wins this season. Look for a big bounce back this week.

Johnson has six wins all-time at Charlotte, but none since 2009. He won five of six Charlotte from 2003-05. Since his last win, he’s finished 22nd or worse in four of seven races. During the Chase last season, he finished third, which ties his best finish since 2009. So far, so good for Johnson in two 1.5-mile races in the Chase. He finished fifth at Chicago and then sixth at Kansas, which is the best two race stretch on these type of tracks throughout the season. However, he has still yet to win on any of the 1.5- or 2-mile tracks this season, which would be the first time in his career he’s gone winless on those types in a season. He has three chances remaining.

A long shot to take a shot with might be Kurt Busch who has now finished five straight 1.5-mile track races with finishes of sixth or better, a string started with his third-place runs at Charlotte in May and continued through last week with runner-up at Kansas. He has yet to win on the season, but does have a 2010 Charlotte win.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (15/1)
3) #78 Kurt Busch (18/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (20/1)

Driver Handicaps: Charlotte
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone breaks down all the stats and information to help steer you toward Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway:

Who’s HOT at Charlotte

Kevin Harvick: Last week’s Kansas winner, Harvick won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte back in May. The Richard Childress Racing driver has finished inside the top 10 at CMS five of his last six Sprint Cup Series starts.

Jimmie Johnson: The five-time series champion hasn’t won at Charlotte since 2009, but does have six career victories at the track. He comes into the weekend only three points out of the Chase lead.

Kasey Kahne: The Hendrick Motorsports driver owns four career Charlotte wins including a sweep back in 2006. He has scored four straight top-10 performances including a second behind Harvick in last May’s 600.

Joey Logano: Since his opening Chase woes in Chicago, Logano has been strong including another nice 1.5-mile effort last week in Kansas. The Penske Racing driver was fifth at Charlotte in May.

Carl Edwards: Edwards has an All-Star Race win at Charlotte and an 11.9 average finish in 17 career Charlotte starts. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has three top-10 finishes in his last four CMS outings.

Who’s NOT

Juan Pablo Montoya: The Earnhardt Ganassi Racing driver is winding down his NASCAR career, which has not been very good at Charlotte. Montoya’s 23.4 average finish includes only one top-10 finish.

Paul Menard: The Richard Childress Racing driver turned in a good run at Kansas last week but will have his work cut out for him in Charlotte where he has one top-10 outing in 13 career starts.

Marcos Ambrose: Although he was 10th in the Coca-Cola 600, Ambrose has struggled at Charlotte over the years with a 20.7 average finish.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: He came close to winning the 600 a couple years ago but Charlotte hasn’t been kind to Junior. He missed last year’s Bank of America 500 while recovering from a concussion and has a 19.9 average finish over his last 19 starts.

Jeff Burton: The veteran driver has put up some gaudy numbers at Charlotte in recent years and hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since he won at the track in 2008.

Who to watch at Charlotte

Matt Kenseth: The seven-time winner has been strong on 1.5-mile tracks in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing and won at Charlotte as recently as 2011.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is the defending Bank of America 500 winner and followed with an eighth-place performance in this year’s Coca-Cola 600.

Kyle Busch: Prior to finishing 38th in the 600, Busch had 10 top-10 Charlotte finishes in his previous 11 starts.

Kurt Busch: The Furniture Row Racing driver brings a great deal of momentum into Saturday night after his second-place Kansas finish and posted a third in May’s Coca-Cola 600.

Jamie McMurray: Charlotte always has been special to McMurray where he won his first career Sprint Cup Series race in 2002 and also took the 2012 Bank of America 500. The Earnhardt Ganassi Racing driver has run stronger as the season winds down.

MRN.com Writer Picks

Pete Pistone: Matt Kenseth
Dustin Long: Kasey Kahne
Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson

Bank of America 500 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS - It's been a long time since the Busch brothers came 1-2 in our weekly ratings, but as a result of Kyle Busch finishing with the top speed (189.447 mph) during Friday's early practice session and Kurt Busch being fastest (190.759) during happy hour, the two top our chart as the most ideally suited to win Saturday's night's Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Of course, there are so many other factors that go into rating each driver before a race, and a lot of it comes from what they have done lately on similar tracks, how they are running overall, and past history in general.

In Kyle Busch's case, he has a big negative placed upon on him because of a 34th-place finish at Kansas last week. His problems started in practice when he wrecked, and they continued on race day while using a back-up car. This is the fork in the Chase crossroads for Busch. Kansas was his first race in the Chase that he didn't finish in the top five.

Now here comes to another 1.5-mile track at Charlotte, a place that drives much faster with higher banking than Kansas, and a place at which he's won 12 times over his career. However, all those wins came between the Nationwide and Truck series. He's finished third or better six times in the Cup series at Charlotte, and maybe best of all for his resume is that he won on the Charlotte sister tracks this season at Texas and Atlanta, two tracks that resemble Charlotte the most.

When looking at what he did Friday during the final practices, it elevated him right to the top of the chart as the driver to beat. He's got the wins on the season, and he still has a shot at the title (15/1 odds). He also has a very fast car for Saturday's race. In addition to the top single lap of the early session, Kyle Busch also had the second-best 10-consecutive lap average behind Jimmie Johnson.

With Kurt Busch, we've come to grips with the fact that he's finally going to win a race sooner or later, and this week looks just as good as any for the 2010 Charlotte winner. If we look back at the last five 1.5-mile tracks at which he's run, he has finished sixth or better in all of them, a streak that started with a third-place finish in the May Charlotte race. He also finished third on the wide-open 2-mile layout at Michigan. His top speed is nothing new in practice because he's been doing it on almost all of the tracks at which he's done well, but elevating him higher this week is more about other top teams dropping a notch -- or, more specifically, Matt Kenseth not looking so great.

Kenseth has won on four of the eight 1.5-mile tracks season, but none came on the high-banked tracks at Charlotte, Atlanta or Texas. He was eighth in Saturday's early practice, but he followed it up with a 23rd during happy hour. Last week at Kansas, his type of track, he was sluggish and finished 11th, which allowed Johnson to close the gap on the leader by just three points in the standings.

Johnson hasn't won on any of the 1.5-mile tracks this season, but he does have six Charlotte wins, not including his All-Star race non-points win in May. The good news for Johnson's team is that they're getting better on these tracks, having finished fifth at Chicago and sixth at Kansas last week. They only have three top-five finishes on these types all season. Johnson also practiced very well Friday while using the same car he won with at Dover's one-mile high-banked layout.

The driver the Busch brothers should fear the most as their biggest challenger this week looks to be Kevin Harvick, who won the May Charlotte race. He finished the final practice session with the second-fastest lap behind Kurt Busch, and in a rare move for back-to-back races, he's using the same car he won with at Kansas last week.