Biffle bests Busch in Best Buy 400 qualifying
Fri 30th, May 2008
Dover, DE (Sports Network) - Greg Biffle edged both Kurt and Kyle Busch for the pole in Sunday's Best Buy 400 Sprint Cup race at the Dover International Speedway. The No.16 Roush Fenway Racing driver circled the one-mile cement oval, known as the "Monster Mile" in 23.193 seconds (155.219 m.p.h.).
The pole victory was Biffle's second of the season and sixth of his Sprint Cup career.
"They built me a great car," said Biffle. "It's exciting how the No.16 team has come around this year."
Starting on the front row with Biffle will be Kurt Busch who posted a second- best time of 23.381 seconds.
Sprint Cup points leader Kyle Busch (23.412) and two-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson (23.414) will make up row two.
Other drivers of note and their starting positions: Jamie McMurray (fifth), Jeff Gordon (seventh), Ryan Newman (11th), Carl Edwards (14th), Kasey Kahne (15th), Matt Kenseth (21st), Tony Stewart (22nd), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (25th) and Jeff Burton (38th).
"I've been excited since the first lap on the race track," said Gordon. "It's been fast and that's something we haven't had in a while. It's great to be able to do it right here in DuPont's backyard, especially after extending our contract through 2010."
Kyle Busch is currently the best driver in NASCAR, whether you pick the Sprint Cup Series, Nationwide Series or Craftsman Truck Series. All told, Busch has made 30 starts in NASCAR's three major series' in 2008 and has earned nine wins (30%), finished in the top-10 20 times (67%) and led a total of 1607 laps.
The younger brother of 2004 Sprint Cup Series champion Kurt Busch leads the Sprint Cup Series by 94 points over Jeff Burton and 139 points over Dale Earnhardt Jr. He also sits second in the Nationwide Series standings and seventh in the truck series despite missing a race due to scheduling conflicts.
Whatever car (or truck) he gets into is automatically a contender for the win. He can drive a car that's too loose to race and yet he will drive it up front. He is fun to watch, because you know something is going to happen - good or bad.
Burton on the other hand is the opposite of Busch both on the track and off. The driver of the No.31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet just quietly goes about his job.
Burton has made the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" in each of the last two seasons and is perfectly situated to do it again this year. He holds a 368-point advantage over the 13th-place driver. Burton has a win (Bristol) and has earned eight top-10s to date.
Despite their different approaches, both their methods seem to be working. The next chapter takes place when they drop the green flag on Sunday around 2 p.m. (et).
Best Buy 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Racing on Sunday afternoon is back as Dover International Speedway hosts NASCAR for the Bobby Alison dedication ceremony and the Best Buy 400 annual Autism Speaks benefit race at 2:15 p.m. on June 1.
Gamblers should keep in mind that "The Monster Mile" really does not favor any one driver as there have been nine different winners of the last nine races at Dover. Martin Truex, Jr. won this race last year, his first Sprint Cup win of his career. No active driver has more wins at Dover than Jeff Gordon, who is tied with Bill Eliot and Mark Martin with four while Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson both have three wins in Delaware.
Who will win the Best Buy 400?
Last weekend we had Jimmie Johnson to win at 8/1 and he did have a strong performance in the Coca-Cola 600. He led 35 laps and appeared to do no worse than finish in the top five, and perhaps even win, until his engine blew and he finished the race in 39th place. Teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. had a run of bad luck as well as he led the race for 76 laps but had to settle for fifth and another race without a victory bringing his winless streak to 74.
"Concrete" Carl Edwards won me a pile of money last year at Dover's September race, the Dodge Dealer's 400. Edwards does well on the concrete, which is one reason he has been set as the 5/1 favorite. Will we see another back flip from the No. 99 car driver? Something seems too easy about picking Edwards in this race.
However, nobody has had worse luck than Tony "Smoke" Stewart who saw his first Sprint Cup win in nine months blow out when he cut his tire and slammed into the wall as he held a comfortable lead with three laps to go. Instead of a first Stewart finished 18th and once again suffered a disappointing loss in a race he should have won. This is the third time this has happened to Stewart this season. The No. 20 car also led late in the two other races at Daytona and Bristol before losing to engine and tire troubles in the waning laps of the races.
Back in the old days Stewart did very well at Dover; he won twice, had five top-three finishes and nine top-fives. Joe Gibbs Racing brings a very fast car to the track and if Stewart hopes to end his streak of bad luck Dover's Monster Mile is a great place for him to start.
Pick! No. 20, Tony Stewart, (8/1)
Best Buy 400 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Best Buy 400, considered one of the hardest tracks to race on in the Sprint Cup, this weekend. Last week, I won one unit on my Square Tire Pick backing Kasey Kahne at +1.25 against the 'Old Man' Mark Martin. Too bad we didn't pick Kahne outright to win as he swept two races at LMS in eight days. This brings my record Over-the-Wall to 9-8 with -.55 units on the season and a return over .500 with 12 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.
Long Odds Value Pick
Earlier this season Richard Childress Racing had a 1-2-3 finish on the short track at Bristol. Jeff Burton's No. 31 car won the race outright beating teammates Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer in that order. Currently Burton is ranked second in the Sprint Cup standings and he is 94 points behind Kyle Busch. In 12 starts this year Burton has had one win, three top-fives and eight top-10 finishes and has not recorded a DNF. He has done some of his best racing on the short/intermediate tracks and is eager to get his Chevrolet back on the victory lap. If you are looking for some good excitement and value for your long odds play Burton will keep you cheering until the end.
Pick! Jeff Burton 25/1
Square Tire Pick
Matt Kenseth (-1.5)/Jeff Gordon (+1.05)
The reason for this number quite simply has more to do with Gordon's perceived difficulties and problems this year than perhaps is actually the case. Granted Gordon has not had his best year this year but he is far from awful and the dangerous part about Gordon is that he is a threat to win every time he gets behind the wheel. Of Gordon's 81 career wins, four of them have come at Dover and just about 50 percent of his total wins have come on intermediate tracks. Gordon has an average finish of 12.3 at Dover. Kenseth, on the other hand, has not been inspirational despite moving up four places in the standings to 16th after the Coca-Cola 600. Kenseth has one win at Dover, five top five finishes and an average finish of 15.3. At 10th place in the Sprint Cup standings Gordon is well within the Chase while Kenseth is still chasing. Anyway you look at it it's hard not to like Gordon in the position and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the 12/1 shot won the race outright.
Pick! Jeff Gordon +1.05
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NASCAR tackles the Monster Mile
Brian Gabrielle
Kyle Busch comes into this weekend atop the points board, with Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr. close behind. All three will have to contend with the Miracle Mile at Dover.
Last Week: Argh. We had a winning week, but we also had Tony Stewart at a ludicrous (for him) +1200, and he had the Charlotte race won. With just three laps left and Smoke leading comfortably, he burst a tire and smacked into the wall, letting Kasey Kahne have a gift of a win.
Fortunately, Kyle Busch was able to beat Jimmie Johnson, so we won our head-to-head matchup, but anyone who has said we've been lucky so far this year can officially stick it where the sun doesn't shine. That was a really tough way to lose good money last week.
Anyway, for the week, we profited 0.17 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 11.3%. For the season, we've profited 7.46 units on 17 units wagered, a return of 43.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 11 of 12 events.
At this week's Best Buy 400 at Dover International Speedway, take Greg Biffle (+1000), 1/6th unit: This week, we head to the Monster Mile at Dover, which is like Bristol on steroids – high-banked and concrete, a brake-intensive place that nevertheless allows you to go fast through the corners. No one on the Sprint Cup circuit has a better finishing average in the five Car of Tomorrow races that've happened at Dover and Bristol than Greg Biffle.
The Biff finished second and sixth at Dover last year, and was fourth at Bristol this March. He's a great bet to finish in the top five, and considering how close he was to winning at both Darlington and Charlotte over the last three weeks, he's due.
Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit: Edwards won at both Dover and Bristol last fall, and also posted a third-place finish at Dover in this race last spring. He was disappointing last weekend at Charlotte, though he was on the comeback trail before he got his front end bashed in during a late restart. I expect him to be in close contention for this win.
Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800), 1/6th unit: I'm going to be honest here; I think Kyle Busch (+500) probably has a better chance of winning this race, but at odds that low for a driver who often has bouts of wildness, I just think that's kind of a sucker bet. So I'm going to go with the guy who replaced the Shrub in the Hendrick stable.
Junior has been so close on several occasions this year, including last week, when it looked like he had the car to beat late at Charlotte, but a late blown tire caused him to crash into the wall, whereupon J.J. Yeley T-boned him. Junior has the fifth-best COT average at Dover and Bristol combined, including a third here at Dover last fall and a fifth, fifth and seventh in three COT Bristol events. He's so close. His 74-race non-winning streak could end this week.
Trading Paint: Best Buy 400 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Best Buy 400 in Dover, Del.
The rules are simple:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.
After 12 races, the standings are as follows, with their pick of last week's winner in parentheses:
1. Steve Kaminski (Dale Earnhardt Jr.) -- 1,778
2 Antoine Pitts (Carl Edwards) -- 1,653
3. Mike Pryson (Jeff Gordon) -- 1,584
4. Jeff Bleiler (Denny Hamlin) -- 1,569
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Let's be honest. It's been a rough past few weeks. My picks are finding ways to not win -- some, I believe, to spite me -- and I've dropped from a comfortable spot in second to being in a virtual dead heat for last with Pryson. Not good. It's time for a do-over in Dover. Just like when we were kids and someone booted the kickball into a tree, it's do-over time. Do-over in Dover. Has a nice ring to it.
• Winner -- Carl Edwards. In his last five races at Dover, his worst finish is 15th -- much better than my winning driver picks actually finished in the last two races (they've finished 22nd and 24th. Thanks). Take out that race, and his average finish there in the past four events is about fourth. Works for me.
• Sleeper -- Tony Stewart. He was seemingly a lock for a win in Charlotte before getting friendly with the wall. Enough close calls. The guy needs, and deserves, a win.
• No chance -- Kurt Busch. In two races last year, he finished 29th and 42nd. He did have a top-five at Dover a couple years ago, but the bet here is he won't get one this week.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
Someone better tell these guys that this contest doesn't have the Chase for the Championship, in which we basically start over after 26 races. Did you know that I could take this week off,Bleiler still wouldn't be able to catch me?
Bleiler's cohort, Pryson, would need to pick the winning driver and have him lead the most laps, and after that, Pryson would only have a one-point lead over me.
Maybe I should pick someone like Robby Gordon this week. They talk about Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s losing streak. Gordon hasn't won since 2001. Now that's a guy who is due. Nah.
• Winner -- Greg Biffle. He's back on track with strong two weeks at Lowe's, and he will cash in at Dover.
• Sleeper -- David Ragan. He will be the next first-time winner on the Cup circuit. It just might come this weekend.
• No chance -- Kasey Kahne. It will be back to reality for Kahne, who has failed to crack the top 20 in five of his eight Dover starts.
Antoine Pitts -- The Ann Arbor News
Well, after last week's double, it's good to be back on just the NASCAR circuit this week. I'm hearing that this is Fox's and DW's last race of the season. Good, because that Waltrip has been on me all season for my picks.
• Winner -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. It's time. The car looks good, he keeps racking up
the top 10s. I'm going to drive him into Victory Lane this week, for sure.
• Sleeper -- Matt Kenseth. Steadily moving up in the points standings the last few weeks.
• No chance -- Martin Trueax. A 34th-place finish at the Coca-Cola does not foretell upcoming success.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
From the bright lights of Charlotte and the 600 last week to beautiful Dover this week. Dover is a city of about 35,000 people, which makes it a little smaller that Jackson. Hmm. I did not know that.
Also, did you know that Dover is the only state capital in the country with an all-volunteer fire department? Hopefully they won't be needed down at the speedway this weekend.
On to the picks.
• Winner -- Jeff Burton. Take the quiet man. The guy is having a dream season, tooling along in second place in the points and hardly making any enemies along the way. He's been solid at Dover in recent years, finishing in the top seven three times in his last four tries with a win in 2006.
• Sleeper -- Matt Kenseth. Don't look now, but Kenseth is creeping into the Chase picture. He moved up four spots last week to 16th overall, but he's still a healthy 190 points out of the key 12th position. Look for the 2003 Cup champion to continue to make a run up the charts this week.
• No chance -- Kasey Kahne. There's no way he makes it two in a row. He's only posted one top-10 finish in eight starts at Dover, a seventh in 2006. He's also finished just three of those races. Plus, sitting 12th on the overall points chart puts a huge target on his back. A lot of drivers will be gunning to put Kahne in the rearview mirror this week.
Best Buy 400 PostQ
We all know that Greg Biffle likes Dover International Speedway – we just didn’t know that he liked it this much. Since NASCAR began keeping track of the Driver Rating statistical analysis (6 races for Dover) Biffle is considered to be the No. 1 driver at the track. He not only rates as the top driver for the Driver Rating category but he then came out and took the pole on Friday while ranking as the top driver on our Speed chart as well. Biffle apparently knows how to tame the Monster Mile and should be in every fantasy player’s lineup for the Best Buy 400 because there are very few drivers that have run well consistently at this track. Jump on the #16 3M/Dish Network Ford bandwagon.
Is it much of a surprise to see Kyle Busch’s name sitting atop the PostQ forecast – of course not. Busch has been dominant this season leading the series in the point standings while tyring with Carl Edwards for the series lead in wins with three. Busch has just one finish outside the top 20 on the season but there is a small eye of concern as he is averaging just a 16th place finish on the speedways in his last 23 starts. Still, he has three wins and 13 top 10s in that span. It has always been feast or famine for Rowdy but he seems to have reigned some of the rowdiness in. If Busch maintains this pace there is no reason he should not be the 2008 series champion.
Jamie McMurray desperately needs a good run and Dover is a track where he has shown the ability to run well. In 10 career starts he has finished in the top 20 seven times with a top finish of 2nd place. He ran well the lsat time out at Dover finishing in the top 10 and has the chcane to do so again. McMurray is in search of a solid finish as he has just one top 10 finish on the season (Martinsville) as he sits 23rd in the point standings. Things have looked good so far for McMurray as he qualified in the 5th position and ranked in the top 10 on our Speed chart. He could end the day with a top 10 run and get himself back in the running for a spot in the Chase for the Championship.
A driver that has not had a very good weekend so far is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin entered the week in the 7th position on our PreQ forecast but dropped all the way to 19th on the PostQ forecast. He hs been running exteremly poorly qualifing well back in the pcak in the 39th position while ranking even lower on our Speed chart in the 39th position. Hamlin did pick it up in the rain shortened final practice session ranking 2nd but he will have plenty of work to do on one of the toughest tracks in the series. Unless he has some great pit strategy and a bit of luck we would advise to stay away from the #11 FedEx Toyota for this race.
We mentioned him on the PreQ forecast report and will say it again – stay away from Juan Pablo Montoya. Again, we have stated multiple times this year that we do like Montoya overall but just not at this time. He ran poorly in this race lsat season before turning out a tpo 10 in the fall race when he qualified in the 2nd position. For this race he will be starting in the 35th position which means there will be plenty of bumping and banging as he attempts to make his way to the front. Montoya has been known to use his fender and his aggressive driving will likely cause some headaches for his crew this weekend. It would be best to wait to use Montoya when we get to some of the flat race tracks in a few weeks.
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