Bojangles Southern 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Only two races remain in NASCAR's regular season before the 10-race Sprint Cup Chase starts at Chicagoland Sept. 18 and Sunday night's Bojangles Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway will help finalize the 16 drivers eligible for postseason play.
Kyle Larson's first career win last week at Michigan made him the 13th driver to win in the first 24 races which means there are only three Chase spots available.
The Southern 500 used to be NASCAR's feature race of the season every Labor Day weekend. It began in 1950 and while NASCAR took the date away during its rapid expansion -- greed was the real reason, last year it made a return back to its rightful spot on the schedule at Darlington and everyone embraced it.
The track painted the facility just the way it was in the 1950's, and the teams got into the theme as well with retro paint schemes. For the past two months, every team has been unveiling their Darlington paint schemes, and they all look pretty cool. You're going to do a double take wondering if David Pearson, Cale Yarborough or Junior Johnson is driving.
Beyond the historical element added, the best thing about races at Darlington is the 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval that features high banks with four different corners. No matter how skilled a driver is 'The Lady in Black' always manages to give away some unwanted Darlington stripes.
“The Darlington Stripe is when you run up right by the wall and you are trying to get the best speed you can out of the car," said Kurt Busch who makes his 20th Darlington start Sunday and finished sixth there last year.
"Just that quick (snaps fingers), the wall just sucks you right on it and you’ve got the right side of your car pancaked. The teams build the cars with extra support on the right sides. It’s extra weight but it helps protect you from running into the wall too hard. It helps where you can keep your day going and not actually ruin your day when you run into the wall. You think, hitting the wall, usually your day is done. At Darlington, that is a tattoo. It’s a stamp that says now you are racing.”
It's a tough track for all, which is why it's often called 'The Track Too Tough To Tame'.
The first handicapping tool we need to start with is understanding that all the teams will be running the regular package that has been run with most of the year that Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated with. There have been 24 races run this season and a Gibbs car has won 11 of them, but if we back out the three restrictor-plate races and the three races with the new low downforce package, a Gibbs car has won 10 of the 18 races. That is an incredible ratio of success.
While Darlington is configured like no other on the circuit, we can still apply a lot of what we've seen already in the six races run on 1.5-mile tracks. Then, let's back out the July 9 race at Kentucky, won by Brad Keselowski, because it used the low downforce package and now we're looking at the last three winners using the regular package on 1.5s coming from the Gibbs stable. This is where we'll start for this week, and there's one Gibbs driver that has been very well liked by 'The Lady in Black.'
No one has been better than Denny Hamlin at Darlington. How does a 6.5 average finish sound in 10 career starts? The track definitely hasn't been too tough for Hamlin to tame. His lone win there came in 2010 and he's been runner-up three times. Last year he finished third. The track just suits his style and you can believe between his own skills and the Gibbs equipment that he'll be running in the top-five for most of the race.
Hamlin and his crew have been in a Chase simulation mode the past few races and they probably wish it was the real deal happening now because they are in their absolute best form of the season with six straight top-10 finishes, including his first career win at Watkins Glen.
He's a good bet right now to win his first Sprint Cup Championship at 12/1 (Westgate SuperBook) and if you do some searching around town, you might find a sports book that overlooks him this week and posts him at 10/1 odds or higher. NASCAR isn't a priority right now for the books with football starting, so there could be an opportunity to catch one of them sleeping at the wheel in other areas, such as this week's Southern 500.
If Hamlin's not your choice this week, Kevin Harvick will surely give you a good run for your money. He's had top-five finishes in his last three Darlington starts including his first career win there in 2014.
Jimmie Johnson has three Darlington wins, second most among active drivers behind Jeff Gordon's seven. Johnson's last win came in 2012 which began a string of three straight top-fives before finishing 19th last season. He has a 9.1 average finish in 17 career starts. Gordon is active again this week after skipping Michigan and is 30/1 to win.
Chevrolet has won the last two races in the series, but the most probable winner this week comes from the Gibbs stable in a Toyota. Hamlin looks to be the best of the bunch this week, but Carl Edwards is close behind as a candidate. After being runner-up twice at Darlington in his first 11 starts, he finally took the checkers last season. The interesting thing to note about that race is that the package they're using for most of this season was used on a trial basis at Darlington last year.
Kyle Busch has had rough weeks back-to-back at Bristol (39th) and Michigan (19th), but Darlington should see his best effort. He's been seventh or better in his last four starts there and captured a win during his magical year of 2008 when he won a career-high eight races.
Matt Kenseth has been sluggish lately as well, but he grabbed his first Darlington win in 2013.
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
3) #19 Carl Edwards (8/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
Darlington Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com
To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Sunday night’s Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
Who's HOT In Darlington
Kevin Harvick: A win at Bristol and a top five last week in Michigan has Harvick near the top of the list of drivers on a roll right now. He goes into Darlington with three consecutive solid performances at the track, including a win in 2014.
Denny Hamlin: He tops the list of best average finishes in the last 10 Darlington races with a stellar 6.5 mark. Hamlin has a win, two seconds and a third in his last six starts.
Matt Kenseth: Discard Kenseth’s 21st-place finish in last year’s race when looking at potential winners on Sunday. His smooth style fits perfectly at Darlington and Kenseth has a 9.6 average finish in his last 10 outings at the track.
Jimmie Johnson: Like Kenseth, Johnson’s last Darlington finish was a bit of an anomaly at 19th. Overall, Johnson runs well at the track "Too Tough to Tame" and his most recent win there came in 2012.
Kyle Larson: If you believe in momentum, then Larson’s your guy. He goes to Darlington after his initial Sprint Cup Series win last week in Michigan and has two Southern 500 finishes of eighth and 10th.
Who's NOT
Danica Patrick: She’s struggled at Darlington during her Sprint Cup career and her four starts have ended in finishes of 31st, 28th, 22nd and 42nd last season.
Casey Mears: His last nine races have added up to an average finish of 28.8, with the best being 17th in 2006.
AJ Allmendinger: Darlington has been challenging for Allmendinger, who scored his best career finish two years ago - 15th.
Paul Menard: Any chance of stealing a Chase spot hinges on finding Victory Lane in one of the last two regular-season races. Menard may have a hard time pulling that off at Darlington, where his average finish over the last nine starts is 25.9.
Trevor Bayne: The Roush Fenway Racing driver is in the same boat as Menard in that a win is most likely his only avenue to a Chase berth. Bayne's lone Darlington Sprint Cup start ended in a 35th-place finish.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Darlington
Ryan Newman: The Chase berth Newman eyes will come through consistent finishes unless he can end a three-year winless drought. He’s been pretty good at Darlington, with a 12.1 average finish over his last 10 starts.
Chase Elliott: After a frustrating Michigan race, when a late restart led to a second-place finish, Elliott arrives at Darlington - where he did win an XFINITY Series race.
Tony Stewart: Will try to get a Darlington win in what will be his final start at the historic track on Sunday. He’s had two 15th-place finishes in his last three starts there.
Jeff Gordon: A seven-time Darlington winner, Gordon is back in the No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports ride, subbing for the injured Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Brad Keselowski: Ran second last year in the Southern 500 and is looking to end a Ford drought at the track that dates back more than a decade.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Pete Pistone: Carl Edwards
Jeff Wackerlin: Denny Hamlin
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Kevin Harvick
Drivers to Watch - Darlington
By Sportsbook.ag
The Sprint Cup drivers head to Darlington Raceway on Sunday for the Bojangles’ Southern 500. With only two more races until the Round of 16 begins, the drivers will be extra motivated to earn a win on Sunday. The points are crucial at this time of year and that should make for some very exciting action on the 1.366-mile track.
Hendrick Motorsports drivers will be extra excited to get out there on Sunday, as a member of the team has won this race 11 times in the past. Jeff Gordon happened to be responsible for six of those victories himself. He’ll be out on the track once again on Sunday, as he’s going to be filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. once again in this one. This is the fifth time Gordon has filled in for Earnhardt this season and it’s unclear when the driver will be making his return. Two guys that will be looking forward to this race are Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle. Outside of Gordon, those are the only two active drivers that have won this race multiple times.
With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best values for Sunday’s event:
Drivers to Watch
Joey Logano (13/2) - Joey Logano has been driving as well as any Sprint Cup driver heading into this race, as he has now racked up 10 top-10 finishes in his past 12 races. Logano has, however, won only one race this season and has never won the Bojangles’ Southern 500. It is, however, only a matter of time before Logano changes that and wins at Darlington. This might just be the year, as Logano came very close to winning just a year ago. Logano finished in fourth place in 2015 and a slight improvement could mean he will be entering victory lane on Sunday. At 13/2, taking Logano would be a wise move.
Jimmie Johnson (17-to-2) - One guy that represents a ridiculous value coming into this race is Johnson. As previously mentioned, Johnson won this race back in 2004 and then again in 2012. He knows what it takes to get it done on this course and he’ll also be entering this race with some confidence. Johnson finished in seventh place at Bristol two weeks ago and he followed it up with a sixth place finish at the Pure Michigan 400 last week. With all of that momentum, taking Johnson at 17-to-2 is a very good idea when considering how well he has done at Darlington in his career.
Jeff Gordon (20/1) - As mentioned earlier, Jeff Gordon is going to be racing on Sunday and Gordon is somebody to take very seriously coming into this one. It’s only a matter of time before Dale Earnhardt Jr. comes back, so every race that Gordon appears in could be his last. That will give him some extra motivation to win, but he doesn’t necessarily need any. Darlington Raceway is a track that Gordon has dominated in his career, as he has already won this race six times in his career. At 20-to-1, it’s worth putting a few units on Gordon to win his seventh.
Austin Dillon (65/1) - When looking for a dark horse in this race, Dillon is a guy that stands out. He is receiving some very enticing odds at 65-to-1 and has been racing very well recently. Dillon has cracked the top-15 in nine of his past 15 races and he also happens to have two top-five finishes in that span. He is getting closer and closer to winning his first ever Sprint Cup Series race and this just might be the event he does it at. Backing him with a half-unit might just end up paying off huge on Sunday.