Budweiser Duel Odds
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- The Aliante sports book posted odds to win and driver matchups for Thursday’s Budweiser Duel qualifying races on Monday, with Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick the co-favorites at 9-to-2 in the first race, and Matt Kenseth opening at 9-to-2 to win the second race.
The Duels are 60-lap qualifying races. Where the drivers finish in these races determine where they start Sunday in the Daytona 500, with the exception of Danica Patrick and Jeff Gordon, who are locked into the front row. Also, two drivers will be eliminated. Only 43 drivers can start the Daytona 500, and 45 will be competing Thursday.
It will be very interesting to see how the drivers treat the Duels. They’re in a major pickle here; they want to learn as much as they can about the limitations of the new Gen-6 car in the draft, but they also don’t want to wreck their primary cars. In Saturday’s Sprint Unlimited, where 19 drivers raced competitively for the first time this season, we saw an immediate wreck.
The drivers that got to race for the entire Sprint Unlimited will have a bit of an edge here. They may not have learned everything they wanted to, but they sure know a lot more of the dos-and-donts than those who didn’t participate.
In the first race, we think Stewart and Harvick will be battling for the win with Joey Logano (8-to-1) having a nice outside chance at making some noise in his new Penske Ford.
Daytona pole sitter Danica Patrick is 15-to-1, but of all the drivers, she’ll probably be the most cautious. If she wrecks her car and goes to a backup, she’ll start the 500 from the rear.
Of the drivers who didn’t participate in the Sprint Unlimited, Carl Edwards in his Roush Ford at 15-to-1 looks to present the most value.
In the second race, we love the Gibbs cars driven by favorites Kenseth and Kyle Busch (5-to-1), but there might be some decent value with Jeff Burton at 8-to-1 and Mark Martin at 10-to-1.
Even though the Cup drivers have three more practice sessions following the Duels, we think this is the final piece of the equation to finalize your Daytona 500 bets. No one wants to wreck his or her primary car, and we may see several drivers sit out at least one of the sessions. Those who do practice Friday and Saturday will have a very orchestrated draft sequence with a select group of four or five drivers.
While this race is huge under the circumstances of the Gen-6 learning curve, historically, winning a Duel doesn’t necessarily translate to winning the Daytona 500. Only seven drivers (Cale Yarborough twice) have done the double, Dale Earnhardt Jr. being the last to do so in 2004. Prior to Junior, it was the master of the draft, Dale Earnhardt, in 1998. Those were the only Daytona 500 wins for both the father and son.
Here’s a look at the Aliante odds for the Budweiser Duel qualifiers:
ODDS TO WIN- BUDWEISER DUEL #1
TONY STEWART 9/2
KEVIN HARVICK 9/2
DALE EARNHARDT, JR. 6/1
DENNY HAMLIN 7/1
GREG BIFFLE 7/1
JOEY LOGANO 8/1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8/1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 10/1
MARTIN TRUEX, JR. 12/1
DANICA PATRICK 15/1
TREVOR BAYNE 15/1
JUAN MONTOYA 15/1
CARL EDWARDS 15/1
KURT BUSCH 15/1
REGAN SMITH 15/1
MICHAEL WALTRIP 25/1
DAVID GILLILAND 35/1
BOBBY LABONTE 35/1
CASEY MEARS 50/1
DAVID REUTIMANN 50/1
JOE NEMECHEK 50/1
SCOTT SPEED 75/1
DUEL #1 MATCHUPS:
DANICA PATRICK -115 vs. REGAN SMITH -115
TREVOR BAYNE -120 vs. KURT BUSCH -110
GREG BIFFLE -125 vs. JIMMIE JOHNSON -105
DENNY HAMLIN -105 vs. DALE EARNHARDT, JR. -125
KEVIN HARVICK -105 vs. TONY STEWART -125
JOEY LOGANO -120 vs. BRAD KESELOWSKI -110
ODDS TO WIN- BUDWEISER DUEL #2
MATT KENSETH 9/2
KYLE BUSCH 5/1
JEFF GORDON 6/1
KASEY KAHNE 6/1
CLINT BOWYER 8/1
JEFF BURTON 8/1
MARK MARTIN 10/1
PAUL MENARD 10/1
RICKY STENHOUSE, JR. 10/1
RYAN NEWMAN 10/1
JAMIE McMURRAY 12/1
MARCOS AMBROSE 12/1
ARIC ALMIROLA 15/1
AUSTIN DILLON 15/1
DAVID RAGAN 30/1
DAVE BLANEY 50/1
JJ YELEY 75/1
JOSH WISE 75/1
MICHAEL McDOWELL 75/1
MIKE BLISS 75/1
TERRY LABONTE 75/1
TRAVIS KVAPIL 75/1
DUEL #2 MATCHUPS:
JEFF GORDON -110 vs. JEFF BURTON -120
RYAN NEWMAN -115 vs.MARK MARTIN -115
KYLE BUSCH -105 vs. MATT KENSETH -125
KASEY KAHNE -120 vs. CLINT BOWYER -110
RICKY STENHOUSE, JR. -120 vs. AUSTIN DILLON -110
PAUL MENARD -110 vs. JAMIE McMURRAY -120
Budweiser Duel Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Budweiser Duel Race No. 1 Prediction:
1) #16 Greg Biffle (7/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (9/2)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #99 Carl Edwards (15/1)
Budweiser Duel Race No. 2 Pradiction:
1) #31 Jeff Burton (8/1)
2) #29 Ryan Newman (10/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
4) #1 Jamie McMurray (12/1)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (9/2)
Daytona Duels Preview
By: Greg Engle
Examiner.com
Let’s face it; there are very few things in life that are sure bets. And so it goes with NASCAR’s opening salvo in the 2013 Sprint Cup season, the Daytona 500. No one can say who will take the checkered flag Sunday. In fact at this point just where the 43 drivers will start and who exactly those 43 drivers will be is somewhat of a mystery.
Some of the mystery will be solved Thursday with the running of the Duels At Daytona. The annual qualifying races will set the field for Sunday’s big show and while there is very little drama this year as to who will be racing Sunday and who won’t, racers compete to win and that always makes for a great show.
Here’s what we know: Danica Patrick starting position will be No. 1 and Jeff Gordon starting position will be No. 2. That’s it. A few other drivers, thanks to either their results in last Sunday’s pole qualifying or 2012 owner points – or, in the case of Kurt Busch, his 2004 championship – know they’re in the show. Beyond Patrick and Gordon however, no one knows just where they will start. Starting near the front in a restrictor plate race such as Daytona can help ensure survival. 2006 Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson and then rookie Patrick learned that lesson the hard way in last year’s Daytona 500. On the start of the second lap Johnson, Patrick and several others who were running in the middle of the pack were swept up in a multi-car crash eliminating them from competition even before the race was underway. So starting near the front Sunday will be important. And getting that premium starting position is what the field will be racing for Thursday. Here’s how it works.
The top 15 finishers in each Duel – not including Patrick or Gordon – will fill spots 3-32 in the starting lineup. The top 15 from the first Duel will make up the inside row; the top 15 from the second Duel will fill the outside row. Spots 33-36 will go to those drivers not already locked-in who earned the top four speeds during last Sunday’s pole qualifying. Spots 37-42 will go to the top six cars in 2012 owner points that are not already locked in. The 43rd position goes to the most recent past champion. If there is no eligible past champion, it reverts back to 2012 owner points. For Mike Bliss and Brian Keselowski, the Duel at Daytona is vital. Because of their owner points and qualifying results (speeds were 44th and 45th, respectively), the only way they can make the Daytona 500 is via their Duel races. Keselowski is in the first Duel; Bliss is in the second. Consider them wildcards; they have very little chance of winning but that doesn’t mean they won’t try to get near the front.
Patrick will lead the 23 starters in the first Duel. While she may try and maintain the lead, look for her to be guarded should she fall back. Patrick will want to simply survive the 150 mile race intact. If she wrecks her car and is forced to a backup she will lose her pole position and be forced to start in the back. The other unknown in both races will be the new Gen 6 car. With the exception of the few drivers who survived the Sprint Unlimited last Saturday night, no one has had any real drafting practice with the new cars. That alone could make for a couple of very wild races.
Among the favorites in the first race are Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. Harvick won the Sprint Unlimited last Saturday. The first Duel should come down to Harvick, Johnson and Stewart. The win will probably be settled among them with the best shot going to Harvick. The spoiler could be Greg Biffle; he was second in the Unlimited and knows how to survive to be around at the end.
The second Duel will be led by Jeff Gordon who is not only a Daytona 500 winner but knows how to stay out in front at restrictor plate races. He has six wins at Daytona the most among active drivers. If Gordon’s Hendrick Motorsports Chevy has the same speed he had last Sunday look for him to stay at the front and possibly go all the way. Expect his teammate Kasey Kahne to give him a run for his money however. Kahne has never won here, but showed he had the speed last Sunday. Same with Kyle Busch; Busch does have a win here and was looking strong last Saturday night until he was caught up in an accident. The overall favorite of the second race though is Matt Kenseth. In his first outing in his new Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, last Saturday night, Kenseth staged a dominating performance but faded late. If he has that same magic Thursday and can maintain it for 60 laps, he could be the car to beat.
Who to Watch in Twin Qualifying Races
By Jeff Owens
Sportingnews.com
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — They are two of the most anticipated races of Speedweeks, and often the most exciting.
The Budweiser Duel qualifying races Thursday not only will set the field for the Daytona 500, but they will give drivers, teams and fans an idea of what to expect in NASCAR’s biggest race.
Danica Patrick and Jeff Gordon, who are locked into the front row for Sunday’s Daytona 500, will start on the pole for the two qualifying races. Though they are locked into the Daytona 500, they both will be looking to gain valuable experience for Sunday’s race.
Others will not only be trying to earn a starting spot for Sunday but to learn how their cars will handle in the draft and what moves they may need to make to win on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the starting lineup for the Budweiser Duels (2 p.m. ET on Speed) and some observations on what to expect from some of the top drivers:
Budweiser Duel No. 1
1. Danica Patrick, Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet: Patrick must avoid a wreck to protect her No. 1 starting spot, but she also needs to mix it up in the draft, learn as much as she can and try to keep her car up front.
2. Trevor Bayne, Wood Brothers Racing Ford: Watch him. He could be a sleeper again—like in 2011 when he won NASCAR’s biggest race.
3. Tony Stewart, Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet: Stewart will be a favorite in this race and a Daytona 500 contender and a favorite, but his mission Thursday might be helping Danica.
4. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota: He’s surrounded by Fords and Chevys and may have a hard time finding drafting help.
5. Joey Logano, Penske Racing Ford: Will be looking for teammate Brad Keselowski.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet: Speedweeks woes continued when he blew an engine in practice Wednesday. Must drop to rear of field for start and was already concerned about speed in his car.
7. Juan Pablo Montoya, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet: Glad it’s going to be a sunny day; no jet dryers to worry about.
8. Casey Mears, Germain Racing Ford
9. Carl Edwards, Roush Fenway Racing Ford: Not a good start after struggling in Sprint Unlimited and getting in wreck with Ryan Newman in practice Wednesday.
10. Martin Truex Jr., Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota: Not many Toyotas in first race.
11. Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet: The 2006 Daytona 500 champion wrecked on Lap 2 of last year’s Daytona 500; looking to stay out of trouble and learn the draft on Thursday.
12. Brad Keselowski, Penske Racing Ford: Our first look at the new champ, who had to miss Sprint Unlimited and had fuel issues in practice Wednesday.
13. Kevin Harvick, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet: The favorite in this race and the early favorite to win the Daytona 500 after dominating Sprint Unlimited.
14. Greg Biffle, Roush Fenway Racing Ford: Couldn’t find drafting help in Sprint Unlimited; hoping to find more speed.
15. David Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports Ford
16. Michael Waltrip, Swan Racing Toyota: All eyes will be on the two-time Daytona 500 winner, who must race his way in to Daytona 500.
17. Kurt Busch, Furniture Row Racing Chevrolet: Has already wrecked two cars in Speedweeks. Needs to come out of this one clean and not mean.
18. Scott Speed, Leavine Family Racing Ford
19. Regan Smith, Phoenix Racing Chevrolet
20. Bobby Labonte, JTG Daugherty Racing Toyota
21. David Reutimann, BK Racing Toyota
22. Joe Nemechek, Nemco-JRR Toyota
23. Brian Keselowski, Brian Keselowski Racing Toyota
Budweiser Duel, No. 2
1. Jeff Gordon, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet: Has a fast car, but will it draft? After wreck Saturday, he's ready to find out.
2. Ryan Newman, Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet: Newman already behind after wreck in practice Wednesday.
3. Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet: Will be looking to hook up with Gordon, his teammate.
4. Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota: Rowdy should be fast, and he has a teammate behind him.
5. Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota: Kenseth had one of the fastest cars in Sprint Unlimited, and he has his Gibbs teammate to draft with. A favorite to win this race and defend last year's Daytona 500 victory.
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford: His romance with Danica has been the talk of Speedweeks, but it’s time to get down to business.
7. Paul Menard, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
8. Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet: Rookie needs a good finish to make Daytona 500; he has a fast car.
9. Clint Bowyer, Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota: Like Keselowski, he missed the Sprint Unlimited, so we don’t know what he has. Parked it early in practice Wednesday.
10. Jeff Burton, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet: May hook up with Dillon to help him make the race, giving RCR four cars in Daytona 500.
11. Jamie McMurray, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet: We know he can draft, but can his car?
12. Marcos Ambrose, Richard Petty Motorsports Ford: Was not happy with the speed in his Ford last week.
13. Aric Almirola, Richard Petty Motorsports Ford: Has his teammate right in front of him; the duo will try to hook up.
14. Mark Martin, Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota: He’s been involved in three wrecks so far. Looking for better luck the rest of the way.
15. David Ragan, Front Row Motorsports Ford
16. Josh Wise, Front Row Motorsports Ford
17. Michael McDowell, Phil Parsons Racing Ford
18. Terry Labonte, FASLane Racing Ford
19. Dave Blaney, Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet
20. J.J. Yeley, Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet
21. Travis Kvapil, BK Racing Toyota
22. Mike Bliss, Humphrey-Smith Racing Toyota