Budweiser Duels Betting News and Notes

Budweiser Duel Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- This Thursday night NASCAR offers us the twin Budweiser Duel 150 qualifying races (7:22 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), which determines the Daytona 500 starting lineup from positions 3-43. Odds to win each race, along with 12 driver matchups, have been posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

After watching Saturday's Sprint Unlimited and Sunday's qualifying session, it's fair to say the cars are running almost exactly like they did in 2014. In both events, we saw tempers flare with several wrecks, and with some drivers having to stay aggressive to give themselves a chance to make the Daytona 500, it's a good bet we'll see a couple more wrecks.

Unlike in the Sprint Unlimited, the cars used in the Budweiser Duels will be the same ones used in the Daytona 500. Those involved in a wreck will have to use a back-up, and no driver wants that.

You might think we’d have more drivers win one of the Budweiser Duels and Daytona 500 in the same year, but it’s only happened nine times since 1959. The last driver to accomplish the feat was Matt Kenseth in 2012. Before him it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004, and Dale Earnhardt did it in 1998 the only year he ever won the Daytona 500. Cale Yarborough is the only driver to do it twice (1977, 1984). The first driver to do it was Fireball Roberts in 1962. Others include Bill Elliott (1985), Bobby Allison (1988) and Sterling Marlin (1995).

Last season we saw Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth sweep the Bud Duels. Hamlin also won the Sprint Unlimited last year, and Kenseth won it Saturday. Between those two, Kyle Busch and new teammate Carl Edwards, they look to be the best bet to get at least one of the wins. Hamlin, Busch and Edwards are the top three favorites to win in Duel No. 2.

Budweiser Duel Race No. 1 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (6/1)
3) #27 Paul Menard (20/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (12/1)

Budweiser Duel Race No. 2 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (9/2)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
4) #3 Austin Dillon (12/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1)

Note: Jeff Gordon is on the Daytona 500 pole and has no need to mess around with his car and risk wrecking it by racing hard in this race. The same goes for Jimmie Johnson in the second race. Johnson will start on the front row along side Gordon on Sunday. If either wrecks and goes to a back-up car, they'll start from the rear. The only theory that makes Gordon a good play is that this is his last Budweiser Duel and he might want to let it all hang out. However, I'm thinking Gordon is bigger-picture thinking and is set on winning his first Daytona 500 since 2005 and he knows his chances will be diminished in a back-up. I don't think he'll win Sunday, but it would be a great story book ending and we've seen several instances of great stories somehow occuring in NASCAR.

NASCAR Betting For People Who Hate NASCAR Betting
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

For a sport that promotes itself on speed, NASCAR betting can seem like one of the slowest options to sports bettors.

There are a handful of betting selections for each week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup event – outright odds, matchups, speed rows - but sitting around watching cars turn left for three or four hours is a grueling practice, especially if your bets don’t pan out.

Enter the Budweiser Duels. The pair of preliminary races at Daytona unofficially opens the Sprint Cup betting schedule, with the top drivers in NASCAR revving their engines Thursday night with Duel No. 1 at 7 pm ET and Duel No. 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET (Sprint Cup moved the Duels to a night race last season).

For those not familiar with the duels, they’re basically a condensed version of a regular race. The field is cut in half and split in two 150-mile mad dashes to determine the starting order for this Sunday's Daytona 500.

Drivers and teams don’t have time for methodical fuel-management strategies to play out nor can they afford to sit back in the pack and make adjustments, hoping to find the right groove late in the race. If they want a shot to run up front at Daytona, they have to leave it all on the track Thursday night. There's betting value to be had all over the board.

The top guns carry a heftier price tag, with some elite drivers looking to kick start the season with a win and others just trying to protect their cars in qualifying. Figuring out which guys are going all out or not can stretch your money pretty far. And then you have the live long shots, looking to make a name for themselves and punch a ticket to the "Great American Race". As well, you have your super speedway specialists who consistently dominate the restrictor-plate events on the big tracks.

The Budweiser Duels are racing at its most primal. And that’s why they’re the most exciting wagering options for those who aren’t quite sold on betting NASCAR. It’s basically the closest thing you’ll find to horse racing, but with 800 horsepower instead of one.

But while the Budweiser Duels are some of the most exciting ways to wager on auto racing, they might also be some of the most ignored. According to Ed Salmons, manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, the Duels draw about 10 percent of the total action that the Daytona 500 does.

“The Duels have historically been a non-event,” Salmons told Covers. “Betting on these races has been much smaller than normal races. Maybe that changes with the night running, but I doubt it.”

Salmons says NASCAR betting overall is growing in popularity every year, and some of the options – like head-to-head driver matchup betting – is outdrawing popular props like PGA golf matchups each week.

Not having the appeal and audience of the Daytona 500 is a blessing in disguise. NASCAR bettors can find Budweiser Duels odds closer to their opening price without the public having their say and sucking all the value out of potential contenders and popular favorites.

So, if you’re on the fence about NASCAR betting or just looking for something different Thursday night, take a gamble: Try gambling on the Budweiser Duels. You’ll quickly see that turning left never felt so right.