Dover 400 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The second race of NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship takes us to the Monster Mile of Dover. The high banked concrete surface is a tough place for even the best drivers to get a consistent handle on. Over the last nine Dover races there have been nine different drivers to win.
Las Vegas’ favorite driver, Kyle Busch, hopes the trends end this week because he won the June 1st Dover race and he needs to get back on track after a poor outing last week in New Hampshire. After dominating the regular season it only took one race to send Busch sliding into 8th place, 74 points behind the series new point leader, Carl Edwards.
It always helps to get out of the gate quickly in the Chase. Kurt Busch won at New Hampshire to start the Chase a few years ago and didn’t win again for the remainder of the nine Chase races and held on to win by just being consistent. However, it doesn’t mean you can’t start out poorly and still win. Jimmie Jonson finished 39th at New Hampshire in 2006, but ended up winning the title anyway by basically just stomping the field. Kyle is very capable of duplicating that feat.
When Kyle won the earlier Dover race this year, he led the final 73 laps and lapped almost everyone. Only six cars finished on the lead lap that day. Following Kyle was a brigade of Roush cars led by the “Concrete King”, Carl Edwards, who won this race last year. Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth were in tow. Jimmie Johnson, surprisingly, finished a lap down.
There is a good chance that what we saw in June will repeat again this week, in particular, how well the Roush teams did. Greg Biffle who led the most laps in June could be on the brink of taking over the chase lead with a win. He pushed himself to his first win of the season last week and propelled himself all the way to 3rd in the standings. His odds to win the title took the biggest dive of any of the drivers going all the way from 35/1 down to 8/1.
The favorites to win the title are still Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch at 2/1 each, with Edwards moving up closer at 5/2.
Edwards will be the choice this week to win. His June run was impressive and his 10 career NASCAR wins on concrete is awfully good. Odds at 9/2 is very boring and I hate to jump on the favorite, but his record shows that he has excelled and won at almost all the tracks he was supposed to.
The best value on the board may be Martin Truex Jr who should be found in the 25/1 range. David Ragan and Jamie McMurray will also be competitive this week and may be offered at a much higher price than they should be after a few down weeks. I could see all five Roush cars finishing in the top 10 this week, that’s how good I believe they’ll be.
If looking for action on Saturday’s Nationwide race at Dover, do not look too far away from Denny Hamlin. He has won the last two Dover races in a row and will looking to become the only driver to win three straight Dover Nationwide races.
DOVER Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (9/2)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (10/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (9/2)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (14/1)
The most inexpensive fun in town rolls in this Saturday Night at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series takes its show to the fast 1.5 mile track of Vegas and there are opportunities everywhere for you and your family to see the race for free, yes FREE!
Several places around town are handing out tickets to all that want them. Places like PT’s Pub and Dunkin Doughnuts are the main outlets in town. The track would love to see a full house and is willing to sacrifice ticket sales for volume and concession sales. It’s a nice give and take situation, and fortunately for everyone in Vegas, you get to TAKE!
So get your girlfriend, wife, kids, Mom or Dad, and take them to the track for some great NASCAR racing. And before you drive out, stop at your favorite Station Casinos sports book and bet on the driver to win. Palace Station is very conveniently located on I-15 as you drive out. The race starts at 6:00 pm Saturday Night, see you out there.
The action should be great. The last nine Vegas races have had nine different winners. Jack Sprague is the only multiple winner in Las Vegas. Ron Hornaday has won the last two races of the season and is favored just barely over Johnny Benson just because of his record in the first 5 mile-and-a-half tracks this season. Hornaday has won two while 3 other drivers each won one. I like the charging Hornaday to win and eventually win the Championship. He sits only 74 points behind Benson.
My favorite Truck Series driver of all-time is another Vegas kid, Brendan Gaughan. He won the Vegas race a few years ago, but this will be his first start in this race while not driving for his family owned team over at South-Point. He hasn’t won this year, but he has shown a few signs of making a possible upset in a few races. Truck #10 should have plenty of support this week. Go Brendan!
LAS VEGAS 350 Truck Race Prediction:
1) #3 Ron Hornaday (5/2)
2) #22 Scott Speed (15/1)
3) #99 Erik Darnell (10/1)
4) #88 Matt Crafton (15/1)
5) #10 Brendan Gaughan (20/1)
Driver to win the Camping World 400
Kyle Busch +400
Carl Edwards +500
Jimmie Johnson +600
Greg Biffle +800
Matt Kenseth +1000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1000
Denny Hamlin +1400
Jeff Gordon +1600
Kasey Kahne +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2500
Kevin Harvick +2500
Jeff Burton +2500
David Ragan +3000
Brian Vickers +3000
Clint Bowyer +3000
Mark Martin +3500
Kurt Busch +4000
Ryan Newman +5000
Tony Stewart +1200
Field +3000
TheGreek.com
Driver Highlights - Dover
VegasInsider.com
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Dover International Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last seven races at Dover. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford) 8/1
# One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 12.1
# Series-best Average Running Position of 6.3
# Series-best Driver Rating of 116.1
# Series-high 267 Fastest Laps Run
# Average Green Flag Speed of 141.742, second-fastest
# Series-high 2,651 (94.5%) Laps in the Top 15
# 212 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green), second-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet) 20/1
# One win, six top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 16.6
# Average Running Position of 13.6, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 90.8, 10th-best
# 298 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# 1,931 (68.9%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
# 169 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) 9/2
# One win, five top fives
# Average finish of 10.3
# Average Running Position of 11.9, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 106.9, third-best
# 166 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 260 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 141.640 mph, third-fastest
# 2,059 (73.4%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
# 154 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford) 9/2
# One win, four top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 8.3
# Average Running Position of 10.4, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 102.9, fourth-best
# 232 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# 265 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
# 1,951 (69.6%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
# 183 Quality Passes, third-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) 6/1
# Three wins, four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.5
# Average Running Position of 12.3, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 101.5, fifth-best
# 173 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
# 300 Green Flag Passes, third-most
# 2,039 (72.7%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford) 14/1
# One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 14.7
# Average Running Position of 7.0, second-best
# Driver Rating of 112.3, second-best
# 244 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 268 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# Fastest Green Flag Speed of 141.752 mph
# 2,577 (91.9%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
# Series-high 222 Quality Passes
Mark Martin (No. 8 U.S. Army Chevrolet) 25/1
# Four wins, 20 top fives, 27 top 10s
# 13.0 average finish
# Average Running Position of 10.5, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.7, eighth-best
# 174 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 141.358 mph, sixth-fastest
# 2,063 (73.6%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
Ryan Newman (No. 12 Alltel Dodge) 55/1
# Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
# 10.3 average finish
# Average Running Position of 8.3, third-best
# Driver Rating of 99.7, sixth-best
# 82 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 2,438 (86.9%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet) 20/1
# One win, three top 10s
# 9.6 average finish
# Average Running Position of 11.0, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 99.4, seventh-best
# 144 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 141.362 mph, fifth-most
# 1,525 (76.3%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-best percentage
# 149 Quality Passes (average of 29.8 per race), third-best average
Odds and Ends - Dover
VegasInsider.com
Dover International Speedway
History
# The official opening of Dover International Speedway, then called Dover Downs International Speedway, was in 1969.
# The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on July 6, 1969.
# The first two races at Dover were 300 miles. The race length was changed to 500 miles in 1971.
# The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Dover was May 15, 1982.
# The track surface was changed to concrete in 1995.
# The race length was changed to 400 miles beginning with the second race in 1997.
# The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race was held in September 2000.
# The track name was changed to Dover International Speedway in 2002. Notebook
# There have been 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Dover International Speedway since the track opened in 1969.
# There was one race in 1969 and 1970. There has been two-a-year since 1971.
# There have been 33 different pole winners, led by David Pearson (six). Qualifying has been canceled three times.
# David Pearson won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole in July 1969.
# Mark Martin and Ryan Newman lead all active drivers, each with four poles.
# 32 different drivers have posted victories led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty, each with seven.
# Richard Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
# Bill Elliott, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin lead all active drivers, each with four victories.
# Hendrick Motorsports has 10 wins, more than any other car owner.
# 46 races at Dover have been won from a top-five starting position, while only 17 races – including three of the past four – have been won from a starting position outside the top 10.
# The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 37th by Kyle Petty in 1995.
# There has been one green-white-checkered finish at Dover: September 2005 (404 laps). Hot Facts
# Carl Edwards has an average finish of 8.3 in five races at Dover, the best among active drivers. Only David Pearson (8.0 in 16 races) has a better average finish among the drivers with more than two starts there.
# Ryan Newman won at Dover in June 2003 - the first victory for Dodge there since 1975. Newman repeated as the race winner in the fall race, the first time Dodge posted consecutive victories at Dover. Newman then won again in the fall of 2004, giving Dodge three of their five Dover victories in the four-race span.
NASCAR in Delaware
# There have been 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Delaware, all at Dover International Speedway.
# Eight drivers in NASCAR’s three national series have their home state recorded as Delaware, though none have posted victories.
Dover International Speedway Data
Race #: 28 of 36 (9-21-08) Track Size: 1 mile
# Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
# Banking/Straights: 9 degrees
# Frontstretch: 1,076 feet
# Backstretch: 1,076 feet
Driver Rating at Dover
Greg Biffle 116.1
Matt Kenseth 112.3
Kyle Busch 106.9
Carl Edwards 102.9
Jimmie Johnson 101.5
Ryan Newman 99.7
Martin Truex Jr. 99.4
Mark Martin 98.7
Kurt Busch 97.3
Jeff Burton 90.8
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (7 total) at Dover.
Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (154.765 mph, 23.261 seconds)
2007 race winner: Carl Edwards (101.846 mph, 6-4-07)
Track qualifying record: Jeremy Mayfield (161.522 mph, 22.288 secs., 6-4-04)
Track race record: Mark Martin (132.719 mph, 9-21-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 72-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Camping World RV 400 PreQ
After taking the lead, well tying for the lead, in the point standings Carl Edwards is looking forward to Dover International Speedway where he ranks as the early week favorite to make the trip to victory lane in the Camping World RV 400. Edwards loves racing at Dover averaging an 8th place finish in eight career starts at the track. Even more impressive than that Edwards four straight top 3 finishes with a win in this race last season. Edwards is one of the top speedway drivers in the series averaging a 12th place finish in his last 30 speedway starts. If Edwards has his way he will be the outright point’s leader when all is said and done this Sunday afternoon.
While he is not in the Chase for the Championship Mark Martin is a driver to watch this weekend. Racing a part time schedule Martin has been ranking in the top 5 on a consistent basis on the PreQ reports when he is entered in an event. That is that case at Dover where Martin has three wins and 13 top 10s in his last 20 starts. He has not been disappointing fantasy players either with his performances as Martin has recorded three consecutive top 10 finishes. He still has what it takes to compete at this level and it would not be a surprise to see him take the checkered flag at Dover.
Another non-Chase participant ranks in the top 5 on PreQ forecast in Martin Truex Jr. Truex’s lone Cup win came at this track in the spring race last season. He does run well at Dover posting a 10th place average finish in five career starts with three top 10 finishes. He is a solid speedway driver as well averaging an 11th place finish over his last 19 speedway starts with nine top 10s. It also helps that the series was just at a speedway last weekend in New Hampshire where Truex recorded a 7th place finish. He is worthy of including in your fantasy lineup this weekend.
There has been much ado about the relationship between Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his cousin and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. While there has been some ‘disagreements’ between the duo Junior has been running well the past few weeks posting back-to-back top 5s. The #88 Mountain Dew Chevrolet team will have to pick it up however at Dover where Junior has struggled in his career. This may be the race in which Junior sees his championship dreams evaporate. He does have a win at the track but that was back in 2001. Since then he has posted just four top 10s while averaging a 20th place finish in his last four starts at the track. Junior does have the ability to run in the top 10 but he gets our ‘buyer beware’ label for the week.
It was unfortunate that Kasey Kahne did not make the Chase this season. It is unfortunate that the series has to visit Dover for Kahne. In nine career starts at the track Kahne has just two finishes in the top 15 with an average finish of 26th place. He has also failed to finish in the top 30 in three of the last four races. Kahne has nothing to lose after missing out on the Chase and may take some chances this weekend but with his poor history at Dover we would leave him on the shelf for this race.
profantasysports.com
A glance at Chase drivers
September 17, 2008
A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Dover International Speedway (in order of points):
DRIVER: Carl Edwards
CHASE POINTS: tied for first, 5220
CAR: No. 99 Office Depot Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 8
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (spring 2007)
LAST WEEK: Edwards took advantage of points leader Kyle Busch's struggles, taking third-place behind teammate Greg Biffle. Not bad for a driver who admits his car was ``terrible'' in practice. Has plenty of momentum heading to Dover, where he finished second in the spring race.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It's a huge relief to have finished this race without any issues,'' Edwards said. ``My guys did awesome.''
DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson
CHASE POINTS: tied for first, 5220
CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 13
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (3 times)
LAST WEEK: The hard-charging Johnson appeared ready to win his third straight race, leading 96 laps in New Hampshire. A couple of late cautions, however, bunched the field and opened the door for Biffle to slip by with 12 laps remaining.
CHASE CHATTER: ``The last three or four months we've been making a lot of progress,'' Johnson said. ``At Brickyard we were able to show that when we get it right, we can go out and race for these wins and in some cases do it in a dominating fashion. So the million-dollar question is: Can we do it during this final 10 (races) and over a long enough period of time during this final 10 to be the champions?''
DRIVER: Greg Biffle
CHASE POINTS: third, -30
CAR: No. 16 3M Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 6
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 12
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (spring 2005)
LAST WEEK: This year's Clint Bowyer? Biffle stunned the field in New Hampshire, sweeping by Johnson for the lead to pick up his first win of the season to surge from ninth to third in the standings. The schedule gets friendly too. He'll soon head back to Kansas, his last victory before winning at New Hampshire.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I felt like we were a definite threat for the Chase if we made it because of the momentum we've had and how good the (Chase) race tracks are for me,'' Biffle said. ``There were some that I was a little nervous about, and one was Loudon. We've gotten through the one a little better than I expected, which is here, so I feel like we're definitely the dark horse.''
DRIVER: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
CHASE POINTS: tied for fourth, -50
CAR: No. 88 AMP Energy-National Guard Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 17
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (spring 2001)
LAST WEEK: Steady as usual, Earnhardt ran up front most of the day, leading twice for 79 laps but couldn't bring it down the stretch on his way to a fifth-place finish, his ninth top-five this season. Heads to a track at Dover where he hasn't won in seven years.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I told Dale Jr. before the race in New Hampshire if he finishes fifth every week from here on out, we'll be sitting at the head table,'' crew chief Tony Eury Jr. said.
DRIVER: Jeff Burton
CHASE POINTS: tied for fourth, -50
CAR: No. 31 Cingular Wireless Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 29
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (fall 2006)
LAST WEEK: Fell back a little early, but looked strong on long green-flag runs on his way to a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire. Just another day in the office for one of the Sprint Cup's most consistent drivers.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It's just too early to be, you know, deciding who is going to win, and who is not going to win,'' Burton said. ``It's just way too early.''
DRIVER: Denny Hamlin
CHASE POINTS: sixth, -72
CAR: No. 11 FedEx Chevrolet
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 5
BEST DOVER FINISH: 4th
LAST WEEK: Concerns about fuel mileage forced Hamlin to pit off sequence at New Hampshire, and a pair of late cautions allowed the field to make late fuel stops. Hamlin finished ninth, his 15th top-10 this season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It's a tough way to end, but we got a top-10 and that keeps us right in the middle of the Chase,'' Hamlin said. ``We know we can build on that and we know we are running really well right now.''
DRIVER: Tony Stewart
CHASE POINTS: seventh, -73
CAR: No. 20 Home Depot Chevrolet
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 19
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: ``Smoke'' gained a spot despite an erratic day in New Hampshire. Was among the leaders early, but dropped back after bumping into Johnny Sauter while leaving the pit box. His eighth-place finish means he's still winless on the season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I got a drive-through penalty that got us way behind,'' Stewart said. ``We had some bad luck and then I made our problem worse with the speeding penalty. To fight back to eighth I'm pretty happy with that.''
DRIVER: Kyle Busch
CHASE POINTS: eighth, -74
CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 7
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 7
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (spring 2008)
LAST WEEK: Busch's first postseason start began with a whimper and a clang. A broken bolt on his front sway bar sent him to the back of the field early, and things didn't get any better when he spun out later in the race on his way to a 34th-place finish.
CHASE CHATTER: ``(Crew chief) Steve (Addington) and all the guys have given me great stuff this year, so one problem isn't going to deter me,'' Busch said. ``I believe in these guys. Whenever we've had a bad race, we've been able to put it behind us the next week.''
DRIVER: Clint Bowyer
CHASE POINTS: ninth, -83
CAR: No. 07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 4
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 5
BEST DOVER FINISH: 8th
LAST WEEK: The last man into the Chase hoped to repeat his stunning win in New Hampshire last fall. It never happened. He muddled through and avoided a major mistake on his way to a 12th-place finish, but hardly looks like a threat to get crack the top five.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I'll be honest, I'm disappointed to have finished 12th,'' Bowyer said. ``I think we had better car than that. Our pit strategy didn't work out as well as we hoped. We'll be better next week at Dover.''
DRIVER: Kevin Harvick
CHASE POINTS: 10th, -86
CAR: No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 15
BEST DOVER FINISH: 3rd
LAST WEEK: Struggled early with control problems, and even worried that he wouldn't be able to keep the car on the track until the competition caution on lap 35. Managed to fight the car to a 10th-place finish.
CHASE CHATTER: ``(Crew chief) Todd (Berrier) and the guys kept working on our Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet all race long, but we just couldn't quite get it where we needed to be,'' Harvick said. ``We were in trouble on the restarts. It is a top-10 but it is not what we wanted.''
DRIVER: Jeff Gordon
CHASE POINTS: 11th, -99
CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 31
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (four times)
LAST WEEK: Gordon could get nothing going in New Hampshire, stumbling to 14th place. Needs to make a move quickly to have any shot at getting back in it, a daunting task considering he still hasn't won this season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We shake off every race that is behind us - whether we win or finish 40th,'' Gordon said. ``We are a dangerous organization and we enter each race thinking we can win. And that's what we hope to do at Dover.'' ---
DRIVER: Matt Kenseth
CHASE POINTS: 12th, -177
CAR: No. 17 DeWalt Tools Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER DOVER STARTS: 19
BEST DOVER FINISH: 1st (spring 2006)
LAST WEEK: Kenseth entered the Chase saying he wasn't sure if he could be competitive. He wasn't in New Hampshire, struggling in the middle of the field before being taken out in a crash on his way to a 40th-place finish and his first DNF of the season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We just really have to approach it one week at a time and work as hard as we can every week to get our cars better,'' Kenseth said. ``If we can get our cars better and run up front, most of the time things like this won't happen.''
Camping World RV 400 HOT! Sheet
The name at the top of our sheet may surprise some people, but if you’ve had David Reutimann on your roster it comes as no surprise. In four of the last five races he has posted a top 15 finish. As you can see on the chart below, his average finish in the last three is right at 11th place. He posted back-to-back 9th place finishes at California and Richmond. In the Richmond race he was credited with leading the most laps (104). He is coming off of a 15th place at New Hampshire. Keep him in mind this weekend.
Returning to the track this weekend in the #8 car will be Mark Martin, and all we can say is: GET HIM! When he has been on the track, he has compiled plenty of points for fantasy owners. In his last three events, he has an average finish of about 6th. At Pocono, he started on the outside pole and ended up leading 55 laps before settling for 8th. He climbed up to 6th at Michigan, and 5th at Richmond. He has conquered the Monster Mile four different times. Last year in this race, he led for a while and wound up 4th. If you want points, you’ll heed our advice and pick him up.
Right below him this week on the chart is the winner of last week’s event, Greg Biffle. Despite not winning at all in the first 26 races, the #16 team still managed to work their way in to The Chase, and now he’s a championship contender. They have found a way to get the car out front to lead at least one lap in 13 races so far. The Monster hasn’t tamed him at all as he has five straight top 10 finishes here. He led nearly half of the race in June before coming in 3rd. Watch out for the Biff on Sunday.
At the very bottom this week is Joe Nemechek. The numbers are pretty staggering because you almost can’t get any worse. In his last nine races, his best finish is 29th. His average finish over that span is a whopping 37th place. To his credit, a lot of it has not been his fault as he has gotten caught up in an accident in four of those. He ended up last on the score sheet in 43rd place at California and also last week at New Hampshire. He has failed to finish on the lead lap at this track in each of his last five trips here. Stay away, or else.
It’s been almost as bad for Robby Gordon. Things have gotten so bad that he has had a few different crew chiefs atop his pit box this season. He only has two top 30 finishes in the last eight races. His average finish in that span is 35th place. There was also one DNF in there when he was involved in a wreck at Bristol that sent him home 39th. The #7 car hasn’t ended on the lead lap in each of the last five events. He’s got back-to-back starts of 41st and finishes of 19th at this track. If you’re satisfied with that, go ahead. But, our advice is to look elsewhere.
profantasysports.com
Rocketman Sports Nascar Dover Top 5 Drivers to Win!
by: Rocketman Sports
The Sprint Cup boys move to Dover this Sunday for the 28th race of the season. Dover International Speedway is a 1 mile Oval Track located in Dover, Delaware. Here are my Top 5 drivers to win in Dover this weekend. We still have to wait for Qualifying and Happy Hour before finalizing our Head to Head matchups. Dover is normally a very good money track for us!! Now 33-22 60% the past 20 weeks with our Head to Head Nascar matchups.
For starters, I think Kyle Busch has the best shot of winning this race. Busch has 1 win, 5 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes in his 7 starts here in Dover. Busch has an average finish of 10.3 here in Dover which is 3rd best. Past 2 years, Kyle Busch's average finish at track type - INTERMEDIATE SPEEDWAY is 14.5. In 8 races, he has 3 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. Kyle Busch's average finish over the past 10 races is 11.4. In 10 races, he has 3 wins and 6 top 10 finishes.
Next in line I would go with Jeff Gordon. Gordon has four wins, 14 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes in 31 starts here in Dover. Gordon has an average finish of 12.1 here in Dover. Past 2 years, Jeff Gordon's average finish at track type - INTERMEDIATE SPEEDWAY is 6.8. In 8 races, he has 1 win and 6 top 10 finishes which is best among all drivers.
Then, back in my 3rd spot, I have to go with Mark Martin. Martin has 4 wins, 20 Top 5 finishes and 27 Top 10 finishes in his 44 starts in Dover. Martin has an average finish of 13.0 here in Dover.
Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Ryan Newman. Newman has three wins, 6 Top 5 finishes and 8 Top 10 finishes in his 13 starts in Dover. Newman has an average finish of 10.3 in Dover which is 4th best among all active drivers.
Rounding out my Top 5 and sitting in the 5th position is Tony Stewart. Stewart has two wins, nine Top 5 finishes and 12 Top 10 finishes in his 19 starts in Dover. Stewart has an average finish of 12.2 in Dover. Tony Stewart's average finish over the past 10 races is 10.4. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 6 top 10 finishes.
The odds for these drivers to win in Dover currently at Bodog are:
#18 Kyle Busch 4 to 1
#24 Jeff Gordon 15 to 1
#8 Mark Martin 35 to 1
#12 Ryan Newman 50 to 1
#20 Tony Stewart 10 to 1
Camping World RV 400: Concrete Carl
By: Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: Jimmie Johnson could only manage a second-place finish for us, and the Gibbs cars were never really contenders (though they did manage top 10s), which means we didn't come away from Loudon happy. We lost the 0.5 units we wagered, but on the season we're still sitting at a profit of 5.19 units on 34.5 units wagered, a return of 15%. We've also given you a winning week in 19 of 26 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost three units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 12.73 units on 99 units wagered, a return of 12.9%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Carl Edwards (+500), 1/6th unit. This week, it's back to the Monster Mile in Dover. In three Car of Tomorrow events at this track, Edwards has finished third, first and second, and considering he won at Bristol just a few weeks ago, I'd say King Carl has got this racing-on-concrete thing figured out. He's currently the points co-leader, and while there's something of a jinx there (in the four-year history of the Chase for the Championship, no leader coming into Dover has been the leader leaving Dover), I think Edwards has a chance to be dominant Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. The Shrub didn't fare well at Loudon, squandering the lead he spent the entire "regular season" building when his rear swaybar cracked. However, Busch only knows one speed: breakneck. He'll be back among the contenders on Sunday, not playing it one ounce of conservative as he seeks to repeat his Monster Mile win from back in June. I say he's got a really great chance of doing it.
Take Greg Biffle (+800), 1/6th unit. Yes, I actually do believe the Chase could begin with a back-to-back winner. I actually consider Biffle's win at Loudon last week something of a shocker: he'd finished 31st, 13th and 21st in three COT races at the Miracle Mile. By comparison, his COT finishes at Dover (sixth, second and third) look downright amazing. Like his teammate Edwards, The Biff is also very good at Bristol in the "new car," and I give him a very good chance of hitting on the right setup again on Sunday.
Gordon edges Martin for pole at Dover
Dover, DE (Sports Network) - Jeff Gordon beat Mark Martin by just a tick to capture the pole for Sunday's Camping World RV 400 at the Dover International Speedway. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver and four-time NASCAR Cup champion rounded the one-mile, concrete-surface oval in 22.921 seconds (157.061 m.p.h.).
It was Gordon's third pole of the season and the 66th of his Sprint Cup Series career. Gordon is currently ranked fourth on the series' all-time pole winners list, but he is now just four poles away from tying Cale Yarborough for third on the list.
"This is a really big boost," Gordon said. "I know it's just qualifying but (it's) still (a) small victory. This is really going to boost this team hopefully to get us through this weekend. We tested in Kentucky. I feel like that was a good start in our week, and today certainly (was) a great start to the weekend."
Gordon, currently 11th in the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship standings, has 81 career race victories, including four at Dover, but has yet to win this year.
Starting alongside Gordon is Martin, who just missed the pole by 0.001 of a second. Martin turned in a lap in 22.922 seconds.
"Jeff Gordon just went incredibly fast, and we didn't get it done," Martin said.
Martin is also a four-time race winner at "The Monster Mile."
Denny Hamlin, sixth in the "Chase" standings, qualified third at 23.001, and Kurt Busch was fourth at 23.021.
Greg Biffle, last week's race winner at New Hampshire, will start fifth. Biffle moved from ninth to third in points after winning the first race in the playoffs.
The remainder of the "Chase" field will start in the following order: Clint Bowyer (sixth), Matt Kenseth (eighth), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (10th), Kyle Busch (11th), Jimmie Johnson (20th), Jeff Burton (21st), Carl Edwards (22nd), Kevin Harvick (24th) and Tony Stewart (33rd).
Chad Chaffin, Johnny Sauter and Stanton Barrett failed to qualify.
Last Sunday's race at New Hampshire created a surprising shakeup in the standings. After dominating the "regular season" with eight victories, Busch finished 34th and dropped from first to eighth, 74 points behind leaders Edwards and Johnson.
If Busch is looking to rebound, Dover is the place where he can do it. He has scored five top-five finishes in seven starts at Dover, including a victory there in June.
Edwards is the defending race winner. He grabbed the lead from Kenseth with 38 laps to go and then held off Biffle at the finish for the victory. Kenseth, who led the most laps with 192, suffered engine failure in the very late stages and ended up finishing 35th. Edwards' car failed post-race inspection after officials found the right rear of his car to be too low. The victory held, but Edwards was docked 25 driver points as part of his team's penalty.
The green flag is scheduled to drop Sunday around 2 p.m. (et).
Camping World RV 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards, finishing second and third respectively at NHMS, made up the deficit in points from Kyle Busch quicker than anyone expected, after the first race of the Chase. Now the Sprint Cup points co-leaders roll to the second race of the Chase this Sunday at 2 p.m. EST; and at a track both drivers do very well at.
Gamblers who like to follow trends should note that Hendrick Motorsports has 10 wins at Dover, the most of any team racing on Sunday. Three of the past four races at Dover have been won by a driver outside of the top-10 on the grid.
Who will win the Camping World RV 400?
Don't look now, but there's two-time defending Sprint Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson tied for first with Carl Edwards. Thanks to what some call a points re-set (start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup awarding each Chase driver 5,000 points) combined with Biffle's win and Busch's 34th-place finish at New Hampshire Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson now share the points lead after the first race of the 10-race Chase.
Jimmie Johnson almost won his third consecutive race until Greg Biffle passed the No. 48 car with 31 laps and sprinted to the checkered flag. An unlikely winner was Biffle, who had not won in 33 races (since Kansas last year). But as I said last week anything can happen at NHMS and it often does. Jimmie Johnson has three wins at Dover and as the active driver with the second most wins at Dover behind Jeff Gordon, JJ will be a force on Sunday without a doubt.
Kyle Busch, who has also won at Dover, will look to end his six-race winless drought. Before the Chase began Kyle had not gone more than four races without a win. Even the 80 bonus points Busch earned by winning eight of the first 26 races was not enough to immunize him from a disastrous start to the Chase and the very real possibility that, like Jeff Gordon last year, he could lead the whole season only to have Johnson win the Sprint Cup during the Chase. Right now things don't look good for Kyle.
He isn't called "concrete" Carl for nothing. Edwards won his ninth-career race on concrete at Bristol in August and he came in second after leading 64 laps at Dover in June. Carl Edwards won this race last September and has done no worse than third place in the past four races at Dover; and owns the best average finish at 8.25 of all drivers. In my mind this race is a no-brainer. I picked him to win last year and I'm advising the same this year.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (5/1)
Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Camping World RV 400 this weekend but here are two that should cash. Last weekend there were no NASCAR matchups by deadline so my record Over-the-Wall remains at 13-15 and +.15 units on the season after 27 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.
Camping World RV 400 Matchup
Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (+1.05) vs. Matt Kenseth, No.17, (-1.35)
Everything in this matchup points to Kenseth blowing away Hamlin this weekend at Dover. But I don't buy it. Not after witnessing last week's sorry showing by Kenseth and his team. Dover is a good place for Kenseth to gain some ground in the Chase. Kenseth's aced 19 times at Dover and sports one win, six top-fives and 11 top-10s with an average finish of 14.7. Compare this to Hamlin's five starts, no wins, one top-five and two top-10s with a whopping 21.0 average finish. This is a matchup where the numbers don't tell the whole story. Kenseth is currently 177 points behind the leader and 12th (last place) in the Chase. Hamlin is in striking distance at 72 points off the pace, good enough for sixth in the Chase and good enough to have my money solidly behind the No. 11 car.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (+1.05), 3 units.
Greg Biffle, No. 16, (+1.25) vs. Kyle Busch, No. 18, (-1.55)
Okay, I'll bite on this one. Sure Busch won this race in June but that was when he owned NASCAR. He hasn't won in six races and since his sway bar malfunction, one-lap penalty, a spin-out, and 34th-place finish (after winning the pole courtesy of yet another qualifying rain-out) last Sunday at NHMS; it looks like No. 18 has run into some bad Juju. But bad Juju never stops the public from hammering the favorite of this ilk. Don't forget in June Biffle led the Best Buy 400 for 164 laps to Kyle's 154 but ended up finishing fifth to Kyle's first.
Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (+1.25), 1 unit.
Long Odds Pick
Martin Truex Jr., won the Autism Speaks 400 at Dover by a gaudy 7.355 seconds last June. Just because a driver didn't make the Chase doesn't mean they won't win. Truex Jr., drives well at Dover as his 9.6 average finish attests. The only driver in the Chase who has a better average finish at Dover is our pick to win, Carl Edwards, with an average finish of 8.6. Truex, Jr., has notched one win, one top-five and three top-10s at the Monster Mile. Despite not being in the Chase for the Sprint Cup I like the No. 1 car's chances on Sunday.
Pick! Martin Truex, Jr., No. 1, (25/1)
Docsports.com
Camping World RV 400 picks
Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Camping World RV 400 in Dover, Del.
The rules:
1. A panelist can't pick the same driver in back-to-back weeks.
2. Standings -- Chase-adjusted and overall -- will be calculated each week based on the actual points earned by the drivers each panelist picks to win.
The standings after 27 races and the first in the Chase for the Championship, with last week's pick in parentheses:
Chase standings
1. Steve Kaminski (Tony Stewart) -- 5,197
2. Mike Pryson (Jeff Gordon) -- 5,131
3. Jeff Bleiler (Kyle Busch) -- 5,086
3. Antoine Pitts (Kyle Busch) -- 5,086
Overall
1. Steve Kaminski -- 4,108
2. Mike Pryson -- 3,655
3. Jeff Bleiler -- 3,609
4. Antoine Pitts -- 3,436
Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
Doesn't that figure? I go basically the whole year without jumping on the Kyle Busch bandwagon, finally decide to side with him for the first Chase race, and he falls on hard times. I mean, 34th place? C'mon! Not the way I wanted to start the Chase, but there it is. Thank goodness for the five bonus points he got for leading the first lap or it would have been a total loss. Enough of that, though. Dover awaits, so there's no use crying about it.
• Winner -- Jeff Gordon. I've said all year that he will start racking up victories. It's getting late in the game to actually rack them up, but it's not too late to get started. It happens this weekend.
• Sleeper -- Greg Biffle. Look out for this guy, who won last week and was third at Dover in June. He's getting hot at the right time.
• No chance -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. He finished 35th the last time around Dover and was 13 laps down. Not good.
Steve Kaminski -- The Grand Rapids Press
Be careful what you wish for gentlemen.
My opponents wanted the points to be reset once the Chase began, so that's what we did. Same old view, huh guys?
• Winner -- Carl Edwards. His worst Dover finish in his past four starts is third.
• Sleeper -- Kurt Busch. He is coming off a pair of solid runs at Richmond and New Hampshire.
• No chance -- Kasey Kahne. He has had one top-30 finish in his past four Dover starts.
Antoine Pitts -- The Ann Arbor News
Week 1 of the Chase riding with Kyle Busch was not too good for me, but I'm sure Week 2 will be better.
• Winner -- Carl Edwards. He'll continue his late-season charge and stay at the top of the standings.
• Sleeper -- Kurt Busch. He had a good run at Loudon -- much better than his
brother.
• No chance -- Sam Hornish Jr. Well, his average finish has been in the 30s.
Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen Patriot
A fresh start and no Kyle Busch to worry about. Life is good again!
Here's what will happen this week at beautiful Dover:
• Winner -- Greg Biffle. Talk about jumping on a bandwagon. This guy went from tooling around in the middle of the top 12 to suddenly being a guy in third place and within a strong finish of leading the Chase. The hunch here is that the team is energized and ready to take another step toward winning the championship.
• Sleeper -- Jeff Gordon. What? Gordon a sleeper, you say? Hey, the guy is winless (even though he's been my pick about 10 times this year!). He's about two bad races from behing out of the hunt. Something still tells me that this guy will be in it until the last race.
• No chance -- Matt Kenseth. Being 177 points out and in 12th place won't get you your team's best equipment or all that extra attention on race day. Expect Roush and Co. to spend that little extra effort needed to win on race day on someone else.
mlive.com
Biffle wins second straight Chase race
Dover, DE (Sports Network) - Greg Biffle is two-for-two in the 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" as he scored his second consecutive victory Sunday in the Camping World RV 400 at the Dover International Speedway. Biffle, who won the "Chase" opener last week at New Hampshire, grabbed the lead from his Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth with eight laps to go to secure the win at Dover.
The victory was Biffle's second of the season and the 14th of his Sprint Cup Series career. He won the spring race at Dover in 2005.
"I knew I had to race Matt Kenseth clean, he's a great teammate, and Carl Edwards," Biffle said. "The car was so loose, but I got a run on the outside of (Kenseth)."
Kenseth, who led a race-high 136 laps, finished second, and Edwards came in third, giving Roush a 1-2-3 sweep at "The Monster Mile." The three Roush drivers battled fiercely for the lead in the final 30 laps.
"I was just hoping they didn't get tangled up in a hair ball coming off of turn four on the last lap," team co-owner Jack Roush said.
Chevrolet drivers Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top-five.
After dominating the "regular season," Kyle Busch took another hit in his quest for the championship. Busch was running in the top-10 when smoke began coming out of the exhaust pipes of his Toyota. His engine finally let go on lap 172 with his day ending in a 43rd-place finish.
"Something broke inside the engine, and I'm not sure what it was," Busch said.
Busch started this year's "Chase" with a 30-point lead, but after finishing 34th at New Hampshire and last at Dover, he has fallen to 12th in the standings, 210 points behind leader Edwards.
In 2006, Busch started the "Chase" with a 38th-place finish at New Hampshire and 40th-place run at Dover. He was last of the 10 drivers competing for the championship, 224 points behind then-leader Jeff Burton.
"The same thing happened two years ago, the exact same thing," Busch said. We wrecked at Loudon and blew up (at Dover). So where did we end up, dead last."
Busch ended the 2006 season in 10th place.
Jeff Gordon led the field to the green, but the race quickly saw its first caution when Kurt Busch spun on the third lap. Paul Menard also spun while trying to avoid Busch's car.
Patrick Carpentier spun on lap 11. While trying to avoid Carpentier's car, Edwards made slight contact with Carpentier, but decided not to pit. Edwards was running 15th at the time.
Biffle and Tony Stewart were among the few drivers who pitted during the second caution. Biffle made air-pressure and wedge adjustments after his car struggled on the track in the opening laps.
Jamie McMurray ran fourth on the restart on lap 16, but moved up to second 10 laps later. After Gordon led the first 30 laps, McMurray moved around him to take the top spot.
Joe Nemechek blew a right-front tire on lap 64, putting the race under caution for the third time and setting up the first round of stops. Kenseth advanced four positions as he exited pit road first. Kenseth led the field for the restart five laps later.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ran among the top-10 in the opening laps, but dealt with a very loose car that put him back to 25th after the first 100 laps. Earnhardt, blew a right-rear tire and spun on lap 141. He fell one lap behind and never recovered as he finished 24th.
On lap 161, Robby Gordon got loose and spun, collecting McMurray in the process. McMurray, who was running fifth at the time, suffered right-side damage to his Ford.
Sam Hornish, Jr. spun on lap 185 to set up another round of stops. Kenseth pitted and handed the lead over to Johnson, who remained on the track.
Johnson ran out in front for 53 circuits before he pitted on lap 240. Edwards inherited the lead for the first time.
Denny Hamlin suffered rear-end issues during the mid-stages of the race. Hamlin was the next "Chase" driver to spend time behind the wall on lap 243 when his crew replaced both axles on his car. He returned 32 laps later but finished 38th. Hamlin fell five spots in the standings to 11th.
Juan Pablo Montoya smacked the wall on lap 350 for the 10th caution. Edwards took on two new tires only and exited the pits first on his final stop, while Martin grabbed four tires and came out second.
Edwards' two-tire strategy paid off as he held off Martin after the restart on lap 356. Kenseth and Biffle moved ahead of Martin to take the second and third positions.
Then it became a battle among three teammates for the win.
Kenseth ran down Edwards and made several attempts to take the lead. But Edwards was able to fight off the challenge. Biffle joined in the action as he made it a three-wide battle for the lead. Kenseth managed to dive below Edwards to reclaim the top spot with 23 laps remaining. Biffle followed Kenseth to take the second position.
Biffle moved to the outside of Kenseth on lap 392 and then pulled away, beating his teammate to the finish line by 0.934 seconds.
"We were just too loose," Kenseth said. "We just got a little bit behind in all of that pit strategy stuff."
With the victory, Biffle moved to within 10 points of Edwards. Johnson is also 10 markers outside of the lead.
The third race in the "Chase" is scheduled for Sunday, September 28th, at the Kansas Speedway, where Biffle is the defending race winner.