Camping World RV 400 preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Las Vegan Kyle Busch had a rough outing for the second consecutive week last week in Dover. We used to discuss things associated with Kyle, and consecutive, as wins and top 5’s, but now we’re discussing poor outings and the chase.
Kyle is currently dead last in the Chase, 210 points behind the leader. The largest deficit any eventual Champion ever came back from in the Chase was 165 points done by Jimmie Johnson in 2006. It seems so far out of reach, but in a weird way, it seems achievable, especially for Kyle Busch.
You would think that Kyle Busch’s odds would fall into the also ran area. Last week after a poor run, Busch was still a respectable 5 to 2. This week after another poor run his odds are at 8 to 1. The sole reason for the respect is basically because of what we all witnessed this season with Busch. He and his team have the ability to reel off 3 wins in a row and take 5 of 6, he’s that scary good. Just because it hasn’t been done before doesn’t mean Busch can’t do it, because he’s proved the odds wrong 8 times in 28 races this season.
I think he’s a long shot, but just the hint of what he’s capable of makes him an attractive wager at anything over 8 to 1. He’ll be good this week and then the following week he’s at Talladega where he’ll easily have the best car. A couple good runs and a few wins with some unfortunate finishes for others at a tough track like Talladega, then Kyle is right back in the mix. There is a lot help needed for him, but crazier things have happened…..Actually, no, there hasn’t been anything crazier.
The driver who rolls into this week’s race in Kansas City, Kansas with the swagger of a feared Dodge City gunslinger is Greg Biffle. Two races out of the gate, and two wins for Biffle. He sits tied for second with Johnson, only 10 points behind Carl Edwards. Should Biffle win the Championship, he would become the only driver to ever win a title in all 3 of NASCAR’s major series. He won the Truck Championship in 2000 and then took the Busch Series title in 2002, all while driving for Jack Roush.
Can Biffle make it 3 in a row this week? Well, let’s do the math. He won this race last season and has the best driver rating of any driver at Kansas over the last 5 seasons. He’s got all the momentum, his crew has been re-energized, and he’s got the cat in the hat ready to give him the best car possible, maybe even more so than Edwards because of the length of their relationship. I’d say his chances are pretty good of taking 3 in a row and the odds reflect it. Johnson, Busch, Edwards, and Biffle have all been installed as co-favorites to win at 6 to 1 each.
Kansas Speedway is in the classic cookie cutter mold with 15 degrees of banking in the turns and lots of room on the 1.5 mile tri-oval. It’s different from many of the other tracks and has its own traits, but can be closely linked to Chicagoland if pressed to find a like-facility.
Just to re-visit that Chicagoland race held back in July, Jimmie Johnson had a pretty large lead late in the race when a caution came out. Kyle Busch was in second and quick on re-starts but not as good as Johnson on the long runs. Busch passed Johnson and won his 7th race of the season up to that point. Other drivers that did well in that race were Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Brian Vickers. Carl Edwards was a factor as well but had an equipment issue late that forced him out of contention.
Let's go with past history and current situations to determine this weeks choices. A very Vanilla and unsatisfying bunch of choices, but its hard to recommend anyone else but those. The best value out there will likely be Harvick in the 20 to 1 area. The two other Childress drivers should be solid as well. Clint Bowyer finished 2nd last season and also happens to be from Emporia, Kansas which should give some incentive.
On the same note from a local feel, both Jamie McMurray and Carl Edwards are from Missouri and call this their home track.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1- #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
2- #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3- #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
4- #16 Greg Biffle (6/1)
5- #20 Tony Stewart (12/1)
Driver to win the Camping World RV Sales 400
Jimmie Johnson +450
Kyle Busch +450
Greg Biffle +500
Carl Edwards +550
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
Tony Stewart +1200
Matt Kenseth +1200
Denny Hamlin +1400
Jeff Gordon +1800
Clint Bowyer +2200
Mark Martin +2200
David Ragan +3000
Brian Vickers +3000
Kasey Kahne +3500
Kevin Harvick +3500
Jeff Burton +3500
Martin Truex Jr +3500
Kurt Busch +5000
Ryan Newman +5000
Field +3000
TheGreek
Camping World RV 400 PreQ
After posting back-to-back wins Greg Biffle has gone from dark horse to win the championship to one of the favorites. Biffle’s surprising surge has re-vitalized the #16 3M Ford team after they had not won a race through the first 26 events. There is even more good news on the horizon – Biffle is the defending race champion at Kansas Speedway. He has been spectacular at the track in the last four races averaging a 4th place finish with the win, a 2nd place, and a 3rd place finish. Biffle is on a tear right now and with his stellar history at Kansas he is the early week favorite heading into the second consecutive Camping World RV 400 only this time in Kansas.
At some point Mark Martin will get the #8 DEI Army Chevrolet into to victory lane. Maybe he won’t but he has been posting top 10 finishes every time he gets in the car. In his last four starts behind the wheel Martin has finished no worse than 8th place with a top finish of 4th place coming last weekend at Dover. This was the last track in which Martin recorded a win coming back in the 2005 season and he is hungry as ever to get back to victory lane. He will be a factor at Kansas where he is averaging a 9th place finish in the last four races. Expect a solid run out of Martin.
Last season to start the Chase for the Championship it was Clint Bowyer that surprised everyone by winning at Loudon and following it up a decent run at Dover. He didn’t quite get the run he wanted at Loudon this season but has been solid nonetheless. Bowyer heads into Kansas on the heels of a top 10 finish and the knowledge that he is averaging a 5th place finish in two career starts at Kansas. He was the runner-up to Biffle last season in this event and would like nothing more to put Biffle in the bridesmaid spot this season. Bowyer will be a contender during the Chase and he should be able to make up some ground this weekend.
As things haven’t started off bad enough for Kyle Busch in the Chase the series heads to Kansas where he has had mixed results in his career. In his last three starts at Kansas Busch is averaging a 23rd place finish with a pair of finishes outside the top 20 wrapped around a 7th place finish. Busch ran horrendous in this race last season finishing in the 41st position. Busch desperately needs a big run out at Kansas this weekend but with the team struggling and his poor history at the track he gets the ‘buyer beware’ label for the weekend. We recommend looking elsewhere.
Another Chase driver that could see there championship dreams come to an end this weekend is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth rebounded nicely at Dover after struggling at New Hampshire but he is still well back in the point standings and can ill afford another poor run. That may occur at Kansas however where Kenseth has struggled in his career. In seven career starts at the track he has just two top 10 finishes with four finishes coming outside the top 20 with an average finish of 22nd place. He had a horrible run at Kansas last season during the Chase finishing in 35th place. Along with Busch there has to be some concern for the #17 DeWalt ford team. And, like Busch, we recommend looking elsewhere.
profantasysports.com
A glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase
September 24, 2008
DRIVER: Carl Edwards
CHASE POINTS: first, 5390
CAR: No. 99 Office Depot Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 4
BEST KANSAS FINISH: third
LAST WEEK: Vaulted into the Chase lead with a solid third-place finish behind teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth at Dover. Had a chance to win but took two tires instead of four during his last pit stop, a move that cost him down the stretch.
CHASE CHATTER: ``You've got teammates in front, I'm still leading the points, and I got to race like I haven't raced in a long, long time,'' Edwards said after the race. ``That's fun. I'm not going to hang over this one.''
DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson
CHASE POINTS: second, -10
CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 6
BEST KANSAS FINISH: third
LAST WEEK: Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus fiddled with the setup early and rallied from a 20th-place start to finish fifth, his fourth consecutive top-10.
CHASE CHATTER: It's just two of 10 (races) and we have eight more to go,'' Johnson said. ``With the type of racing we've seen the last few weeks, I think the fans are getting what they paid for.''
DRIVER: Greg Biffle
CHASE POINTS: second, -10
CAR: No. 16 3M Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 6
BEST KANSAS FINISH: 1st (2007)
LAST WEEK: Picked up his second straight win by outdueling Roush Fenway teammates Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards over the final laps. The hottest driver on the circuit now heads to a track where he won last year. Could be this year's breakout star.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I've been thinking about what a championship would mean for several years and that's really what I've been focused on and that's what's given me a lot of drive here in 2008,'' Biffle said.
DRIVER: Jeff Burton
CHASE POINTS: fourth, -82
CAR: No. 31 Cingular Wireless Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: fifth
LAST WEEK: Mr. Steady picked up his 14th top-10 of the season with a ninth-place finish at Dover. Started 21st but managed to pick his way through the field and find enough horsepower pick up four places over the last 100 miles.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We're only 20 percent into the Chase and anything can happen, but you can believe that we're going to continue to keep digging.''
DRIVER: Kevin Harvick
CHASE POINTS: fifth, -101
CAR: No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 5
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: sixth
LAST WEEK: Notched his eighth straight top-10 with a sixth-place finish at Dover despite starting 34th. The top-10 streak is the longest of his Sprint Cup career and helped him rise five spots in the standings.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I think we only made a few minor adjustments on it during the race,'' Harvick said. ``I am just really proud of all my guys and I really think we still have the momentum to win this thing.''
DRIVER: Clint Bowyer
CHASE POINTS: sixth, -106
CAR: No. 07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 2
BEST KANSAS FINISH: 2nd
LAST WEEK: Heads home to Kansas this week with some momentum after an eighth-place finish in Dover, a nice bounce back after a middling 12th-place finish at New Hampshire.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I needed a couple more laps and I think I could have gotten by Jeff (Gordon), but we got out of Dover with all four fenders and a top-10,'' Bowyer said. ``We'll take that and roll on to Kansas.''
DRIVER: Tony Stewart
CHASE POINTS: seventh, -113
CAR: No. 20 Home Depot Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: 1st (2006)
LAST WEEK: Surged from 33rd to 11th at Dover thanks to constant tinkering with the setup by crew chief Greg Zipadelli.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Just where we ended up was about where we deserved to be. That was about as good as we were all day,'' Stewart said.
DRIVER: Jeff Gordon
CHASE POINTS: eighth, -118
CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 3
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: Finished a disappointing seventh after starting on the pole in a bid to win his first race of the season. His winless streak is now at 33 races.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I can say personally I've worked harder this year testing, working with the team at the racetrack, away from the racetrack, than I have in any other season that I've run in the Cup Series, and the frustrating part is that the results aren't showing for it,'' Gordon said.
DRIVER: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
CHASE POINTS: ninth, -129
CAR: No. 88 AMP Energy-National Guard Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 5
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: sixth
LAST WEEK: Earnhardt Jr. had a frustrating day at Dover, finishing 24th and three laps down after a right-rear tire failure that put his chances of a serious run at the Chase title in jeopardy.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I really hate how it hurt our points race, but that's the best we could do today,'' Earnhardt Jr. said. ``You've got to get over it and go onto the next one.''
DRIVER: Matt Kenseth
CHASE POINTS: 10th, -167
CAR: No. 17 DeWalt Tools Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 7
BEST KANSAS FINISH: fifth
LAST WEEK: After struggling for weeks to get a competitive car, Kenseth stormed to the front at Dover as he and fellow Roush Fenway teammates Edwards and Biffle ran the doors off their cars in a thrilling 1-2-3 finish, with Kenseth coming up just short in second.
CHASE CHATTER: ``The plan was to let Greg win, but we were supposed to make it look really good,'' Kenseth said.
DRIVER: Denny Hamlin
CHASE POINTS: 11th, -193
CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 5
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 3
BEST KANSAS FINISH: 18th
LAST WEEK: A broken drive shaft on lap 244 forced Hamlin to the garage at Dover. He made it back on the track but finished 38th, 38 laps down from the leaders.
CHASE CHATTER: The team did everything we could to get Denny back out on the track as fast as we could,'' crew chief Mike Ford said. ``It was very unfortunate, but the FedEx crew worked quick to fix the gear and drive shaft. We lost valuable points we'll work hard to make them up next week.''
DRIVER: Kyle Busch
CHASE POINTS: 12th, -210
CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 4
CAREER KANSAS STARTS: 4
BEST KANSAS FINISH: seventh
LAST WEEK: How quickly the once-mighty Busch has fallen. Engine problems ended his day early at Dover, where he finished 43rd. Two weeks into the Chase, Busch has dropped from the lead he held much of the season to 12th and all but out of it.
CHASE CHATTER: ``If I were Kyle, I'd go out there and just worry about winning races again,'' JGR teammate Tony Stewart said. ``It's been a remarkable, record-setting year for that kid, and the best way to finish it off now is to go out there and win three or four races during the Chase.''
Chase For The NASCAR Sprint Cup Week 3: Kansas Speedway
Nascar.com
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – One word defines the two-race-old 2008 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup: unpredictable.Two drivers in particular personify that word: Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch.Biffle became the first driver to begin the Chase with two consecutive wins. He’s now 10 points behind series leader and Roush Fenway Racing teammate Carl Edwards.Busch, an eight-time winner in this season’s first 26 races, has started the Chase off with two finishes outside the top 30, including a last-place finish at Dover on Sunday. He’s now 12th, 210 points off the lead.What’s next? Likely, more of the same.In its Chase history, Kansas – the site of Sunday’s Camping World RV 400 presented by Coleman – has quietly evolved into arguably the most unpredictable track on the circuit.Of the four Chase races previously held at Kansas, three were won by drivers not eligible for the Chase.Joe Nemechek began the trend in 2004, ending a 54-race winless drought with his Kansas win. Tony Stewart followed suit in 2006, and Biffle did it again last season. Mark Martin, in 2005, is the only Chase-eligible driver to win at Kansas.In addition, there have been five different winners in the last five Kansas races.Biffle hopes to buck all those trends. He has the top pre-race Driver Rating at Kansas with a 118.5, and has finished inside the top three in three of the last four Kansas races.The last driver to win three straight was Jimmie Johnson, who won four consecutive races last season on his way to the championship.
Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Kansas Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last three races at Kansas. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One win, three top fives
• Average finish of 11.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 6.4
• Series-high Driver Rating of 118.5
• 80 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 163.814 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 702 (94.4%) Laps in the Top 15
• 98 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most
Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Jack Daniel’s Chevrolet)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 5.5
• Average Running Position of 9.3, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 106.5, fourth-best
• 26 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 163.585 mph, fourth-fastest
• 373 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2), fifth-best percentage
• 67 Quality Passes (average of 33.5 per race), tied for fifth-best percentage
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• Two top 10s
• Average finish of 19.4
• Average Running Position of 15.4, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
• 45 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.970 mph, seventh-fastest
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 17.0
• Average Running Position of 13.2, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 90.2, ninth-best
• 28 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 519 (69.8%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
• 96 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Two wins, four top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 10.6
• Average Running Position of 11.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.3, sixth-best
• 20 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 163.474 mph, fifth-fastest
• 599 (80.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 103 Quality Passes, third-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• One top five, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 12.0
• Average Running Position of 7.8, third-best
• Driver Rating of 115.6, second-best
• Series-high 87 Fastest Laps Run
• 186 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• Fastest Green Flag Speed in the series of 164.005 mph
• 664 (89.2%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• Tied for series-high 111 Quality Passes
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• One top five, two top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 22.1
• Average Running Position of 12.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 93.2, eighth-best
• 48 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• 460 (61.8%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
Mark Martin (No. 8 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 12.4
• Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 105.0, fifth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 162.819 mph, ninth-fastest
• 561 Laps in the Top 15 (75.4%), fifth-most
• 71 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 11.1
• Average Running Position of 7.3, second-best
• Driver Rating of 108.7, third-best
• 29 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 163.728 mph, third-fastest
• 662 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%), third-most
• 111 Quality Passes, tied for series-high
At Kansas Speedway:
History
• Groundbreaking for the Kansas Speedway was held on May 25, 1999.
• The official opening of Kansas Speedway was in 2001, with the first events being an ARCA race and a NASCAR Camping World Series, West race on the same day – June 2.
• The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race was July 7, 2001.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race was Sept. 29, 2001.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on Sept. 30, 2001.
Notebook
• There have been seven NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Kansas Speedway since the track opened in 2001.
• All of the races at Kansas have been scheduled for 267 laps.
• 15 drivers have competed in all seven races at Kansas.
• Jason Leffler won the first pole in September 2001.
• Six different drivers have won poles, led by Jimmie Johnson with two.
• Jeff Gordon won the first two NASCAR Sprint Cup races.
• Six different drivers have posted victories, led by Jeff Gordon (two).
• Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing have each won two races at Kansas, more than any other organization.
• Four of the seven races have been won from a top-10 starting position.
• The furthest back in the field that race winner started was 21st, by Tony Stewart in 2006.
NASCAR in Kansas
• There have been seven NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Kansas, all at Kansas Speedway.
• 14 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Kansas, including Jim Roper who won the very first NASCAR Sprint Cup race – Charlotte in 1949.
• There have been two race winners in the top three NASCAR series from Kansas:
Driver NSCS NNS NCTS
Clint Bowyer 1 6 1
Jim Roper 1 0 0
Kansas Speedway Data
Race #: 29 of 36 (9-28-08)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
• Banking/Corners: 15 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 10.4 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees
• Frontstretch: 2,685 feet
• Backstretch: 2,207 feet
Driver Rating at Kansas
Greg Biffle 118.5
Jimmie Johnson 115.6
Tony Stewart 108.7
Clint Bowyer 106.5
Mark Martin 105.0
Jeff Gordon 98.3
Kurt Busch 94.0
Matt Kenseth 93.2
Carl Edwards 90.2
Casey Mears 88.2
Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (3 total) at Kansas.
Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (175.063 mph, 30.846 seconds)
2007 race winner: Greg Biffle, 104.981 mph, 9-30-07)
Qualifying record: Matt Kenseth (180.856 mph, 29.858 seconds, 10-8-05)
Race record: Mark Martin (137.774 mph, 10-9-05)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Camping World RV 400 Driver Rating
Greg Biffle heads NASCAR’s Driver Ratings for the Camping World RV 400 at Kansas Speedway. In his last five races at Kansas, he has five top 15s and three top 5s, including a win last season. With back-to-back victories to lead off the Chase, Biffle has established himself as a real contender for the title. You should take advantage of his recent hot streak and success at Kansas. Using Biffle as one of your fantasy options this weekend seems to be a no-brainer. In the long run, Carl Edwards or Jimmie Johnson will likely win the championship, but it’s good to see Biffle get his time in the spotlight.
Clint Bowyer has only started at Kansas twice, but has made the most out of both opportunities. He finished 9th in 2006 and 2nd last season. He currently sits in 6th place in the Sprint Cup standings, 106 points behind Edwards. Bowyer needs to make a run very soon to get back into contention. Don’t be surprised if it happens this weekend at a track he feels very confident at.
Casey Mears will look to build momentum for the 2009 season at Kansas. He will be moving to Richard Childress Racing, which is probably his last chance to make a lasting impact in NASCAR. "Richard Childress and everyone at Jack Daniel's have put a lot of faith in me to continue the winning tradition that's been established by the No. 07 Jack Daniel's team over the last couple of years and I look forward to the chance to live up to those expectations," Mears said. He’s had his string of success and Kansas is one of his best tracks. He has three consecutive top 10s, including a 2nd place finish in 2006. Mears is a viable fantasy options this week as a “B” or “C” level driver.
profantasysports.com
Fantasy Picks 'N' Pans: Getting Your Cookie Cutter Lineup Set At Kansas
Bryan Davis Keith and Mike Neff
The Chase heads to the Midwest this weekend for its eighth visit to Kansas Speedway. The teams will once again be trying to make the boxier new car go through the air quickly and still turn when it gets to the corners. Gamers will need to look at the previous races this season to get an idea of how their drivers have handled the cookie cutter style tracks earlier this year to have an idea of how they might perform this weekend. There are some lower echelon drivers that seem to excel on the mile and a half tracks and some higher priced competitors who have struggled on this style track.
Carl Edwards has all but owned the Intermediate tracks this year, can he continue to put a whooping on the field this weekend and expand his point lead? Jimmie Johnson is peaking earlier than he has in recent years, which may result in him running away with the Championship this year. Kyle Busch has proclaimed he’s out of it, is that really the case? Read this week’s Picks ‘N’ Pans to see which drivers should be running for your team and which ones would be better off driving a combine through a wheat field.
Bryan’s Race Rewind:
In what was one of the most controversial finishes of the 2007 season, Greg Biffle crossed the finish line third, but was awarded the win at Kansas Speedway. The race, already delayed twice by rain, was ended on Lap 210 due to darkness. As the field coasted to the finish under yellow, Biffle, who was reportedly out of fuel, crawled along the apron of the frontstretch, running at such a slow pace that Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer both crossed the line ahead of him. Nonetheless, NASCAR ruled that Biffle maintained an acceptable pace. While Chasers Bowyer, Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne all finished in the Top 10, six drivers in the Chase finished outside the Top 25 in this event due to various incidents throughout the day (Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch).
Mike’s Keys to the Race:
The annual trip to Kansas will once again showcase the teams that are good at making the new car design turn through the corners. The teams are understanding more and more how to make the cars turn better and the racing has been improving. Added to that is the fact that Kansas has aged in its eight years of existence, and should begin to offer more competitive, multi-groove racing. The teams this year that have consistently run well on the intermediates will most likely run near the front again this weekend. Roush is always a force on the cookie cutters, and Hendrick has multiple wins on these style tracks. JGR has also been very strong on the mile and a half and two mile tracks.
Mike’s Picks:
Crank ‘em up:
Carl Edwards has been very dominant on the Intermediate tracks this year, scoring four of his victories on mile and a half or two mile tracks. Edwards is also riding quite a wave of momentum, finishing third last weekend thanks in large part to what turned out to be a bad pit call, taking two tires on the final pit stop of the race. If he’d taken on four new shoes, there’s no telling where he might have ended up. Also, two of his four races at Kansas have resulted in top 10 finishes, so it’s a better than decent bet that Cousin Carl will be battling for the win again this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson is trying a totally different approach to the Chase this year. In past years he has started very slowly and come on strong at the end of the Chase to win his titles. He has finished second and fifth in the first two races of the Chase this year, and sits only 10 points out of the lead. His average finish over the last four races is 2.2, with two wins, a second and the fifth. The way this team tends to get stronger as the Chase progresses, Johnson may very well win half of the races in the final 10 this year.
Sit ‘em down:
Denny Hamlin has had some great runs this year, and some poor runs this year. Interestingly, more of the races he’s had on Intermediate tracks have resulted in poor runs vs. good runs. He’s coming off of a bad run at Dover and he was sounding quite down on his prospects for the Chase after his team’s bad luck last weekend. On top of that, his history at Kansas is not impressive. He’s got an average finish of 26.3 on the track and his highest finish is 18th. Don’t expect Hamlin to do much this weekend.
Bobby Labonte continues to do some amazing things in Petty equipment this year, but he also continues to do his best on tracks where he’s had success in the past. Kansas is not one of those tracks. Labonte has a best finish of 16th in the Heartland and four of his seven finishes have been 22nd or worse. While Labonte could surprise with a strong run, he’s more than likely going to finish in the 20s again this weekend.
Roll the Dice:
David Ragan almost made the Chase this season, but was ultimately done in by Richmond, which is a short track. Over the length of the season, his strength has been on the Intermediate tracks, and fortunately for Ragan and Fantasy gamers, Kansas is an Intermediate track. Ragan has run once at Kansas, and while most of his 2007 season was forgettable, he finished 16th at Kansas. Expect to see more success for Ragan this weekend and you can hopefully score some big points for little investment.
Bryan’s Picks:
Crank ‘em up:
While it was controversial, Greg Biffle did win the lone Cup race at Kansas Speedway in 2007. What isn’t controversial though is that Biffle knows better than most how to get around Kansas’s oval. Since Biffle’s rookie season with Roush Racing in 2003, Biffle has never finished outside the Top 15 at the track, with a stout average finish of 6.0. Biffle has led multiple laps in each of the last four Kansas races, and has never finished off the lead lap in any Cup race he has contested at the track with Roush. The fact that the No. 16 team is suddenly the hottest in NASCAR, and Kansas Speedway is one of Biffle’s best tracks. Do the math.
The annual Cup trek to Kansas Speedway is homecoming for Clint Bowyer, but his performance on-track is just as much cause for celebration for the No. 07 team as for the team’s driver being able to return home. In the last two seasons, Bowyer has done everything short of winning at Kansas. In 2006, he finished fifth in the Nationwide Series race, then led 43 laps and finished ninth on Sunday. Last season, more of the same, with Top 5s in both series’ races. More importantly, the No. 07 team has gotten their intermediate track program back on track with the rest of Richard Childress Racing. They’ve been the model of consistency as a team through the Chase so far, and look for Bowyer to lead the charge for RCR as they tackle the fastest track on the Plains.
Sit ‘em down:
Even last season, when Juan Pablo Montoya proved capable, albeit inconsistently, to compete on an intermediate oval, Kansas Speedway was none too kind to the driver of the No. 42. Last year, Montoya finished off the lead lap in 28th position. This season doesn’t look to be too much more promising. Montoya has an average finish of 31.0 in the last four Cup races on ovals longer than one mile, and with his teammate and the No. 41 team in limbo an all too visible distraction at CGR, there’s no reason to see Montoya stealing a good finish this weekend.
Early in his career, Ryan Newman fans couldn’t wait to see the driver of the No. 12 tackle the Kansas Speedway. Newman scored three Top 2 finishes in his first three Cup races at the track, including a win in 2003. Since then, however, the Rocketman has dropped from contention at Kansas. In his last four starts at Kansas, Newman has an average finish of 30.75, without a single Top 20 run. In that span, Newman has finished on the lead lap only once. The No. 12 team also struggled on Kansas’ sister track at Chicago earlier this season (their tenth place finish was thanks to late cautions and tire strategy). Midpack is where Newman has run recently, a trend that will likely continue Sunday.
Roll the Dice:
You’d never know it, but in the last four races at Kansas Speedway only two drivers have scored more points than Casey Mears. You’d also likely never guess that Mears is currently on one of his better stretches of the 2008 season. Mears has scored two Top 15s in the last three races, and was competitive for much of the race at Loudon. Mears is also riding a wave of momentum at Kansas which has seen him score three Top 10s in consecutive seasons, posting an average finish of 4.67 at the track since 2005. If there’s a race to start Mears in this year, this likely is the one.
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