Camping World RV Sales 500 Betting News and Notes

Driver Tale of the Tape at Talladega: 2013 Camping World RV Sales 500

1 - Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Home Depot “Let’s Do This” Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.7

2013 Rundown
Seven wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 12.4
Led 22 races for 1,402 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 17.6 in 27 races
Series-best Average Running Position of 14.1
Series-best Driver Rating of 91.5
59 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
5,142 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
Series-high 2,110 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%)
3,952 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most

2 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.9

2013 Rundown
Five wins, 13 top fives, 20 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 11.4
Led 19 races for 1,559 laps
Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 17.1 in 23 races
Average Running Position of 17.5, 11th-best
Driver Rating of 83.1, 10th-best
1,586 Laps in the Top 15 (49.0%), fifth-most
3,006 Quality Passes, sixth-most

3 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Jimmy John's Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 94.2

2013 Rundown
Three wins, eight top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 11.8
Led 10 races for 191 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 16.4 in 25 races
Average Running Position of 19.0, 21st-best
Driver Rating of 77.0, 20th-best
73 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
5,404 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
1,412 Laps in the Top 15 (43.6%), 11th-most
2,930 Quality Passes, seventh-most

4 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Axalta Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.2

2013 Rundown
Seven top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 14.2
Led 14 races for 304 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Six wins, 15 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 16.3 in 41 races
Average Running Position of 18.4, 18th-best
Driver Rating of 81.8, 11th-best
1,514 Laps in the Top 15 (46.8%), eighth-most
2,666 Quality Passes, 12th-most

5 - Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Halloween Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 102.5
2013 Rundown
Four wins, 15 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 13.2
Led 17 races for 1,204 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
One win, three top fives, four top 10s
Average finish of 22.9 in 17 races
Average Running Position of 19.1, 22nd-best
Driver Rating of 79.9, 16th-best
78 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
4,976 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
1,561 Laps in the Top 15 (48.2%), sixth-most
3,146 Quality Passes, fifth-most

6 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 Scotch Blue Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 83.1

2013 Rundown
One win, four top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 14.5
Led 4 races for 117 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Two top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 19.9 in 21 races
Average Running Position of 21.4, 28th-best
Driver Rating of 73.7, 24th-best
63 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most

7 - Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Wonder Bread Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 94.4

2013 Rundown
10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 14.5
Led 13 races for 441 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Six top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 16.7 in 25 races
Average Running Position of 15.1, third-best
Driver Rating of 86.8, fifth-best
5,819 Green Flag Passes, second-most
2,005 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), second-most
4,117 Quality Passes, second-most

8 - Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-hour ENERGY Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.1

2013 Rundown
Eight top fives, 15 top 10s
Average finish of 12.3
Led 9 races for 292 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s
Average finish of 16.3 in 15 races
Average Running Position of 21.2, 27th-best
Driver Rating of 78.9, 18th-best
75 Fastest Laps Run, third-most

9 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Mountain Dew / Xbox One Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.1
2013 Rundown

Six top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 14.1
Led 12 races for 274 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Five wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 15.1 in 27 races
Average Running Position of 15.1, second-best
Driver Rating of 89.9, second-best
73 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
5,551 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 192.891 mph, sixth-fastest
1,919 Laps in the Top 15 (59.3%), third-most
3,732 Quality Passes, fourth-most

10 - Carl Edwards (No. 99 Subway Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 93.6

2013 Rundown
Two wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 12.6
Led 13 races for 449 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Two top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 20.8 in 18 races
Average Running Position of 24.0, 39th-best
Driver Rating of 67.3, 34th-best
67 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most

11 - Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.6

2013 Rundown
One win, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 14.8
Led 12 races for 282 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Two top fives, four top 10s
Average finish of 20.0 in nine races
Average Running Position of 17.8, 14th-best
Driver Rating of 79.0, 17th-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 192.865 mph, eighth-fastest

12 - Ryan Newman (No. 39 WIX Filters Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.4

2013 Rundown
One win, six top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 15.9
Led 14 races for 95 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Four top fives, eight top 10s
Average finish of 22.2 in 23 races
Average Running Position of 21.6, 30th-best
Driver Rating of 70.7, 28th-best

13 - Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.4

2013 Rundown
Two wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 16.1
Led 8 races for 635 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:
Three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 21.5 in 19 races
Average Running Position of 21.1, 26th-best
Driver Rating of 71.2, 27th-best
5,188 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
2,818 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Camping World RV Sales 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve got five races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup remaining with Matt Kenseth holding on to a slim three-point lead over Jimmie Johnson with the biggest wild card race of NASCAR’s version of the playoffs coming up this week at Talladega Superspeedway‘s massive 2.66-mile layout. The only thing certain on this beast of a track is that nothing is certain.

It doesn’t matter how many points a driver has, who practices well, or who has a great history is restrictor-plate races, Talladega does not play favorites to any driver or sympathize with any teams’ needs. That uncertainty plays well into several drivers plan on catching Kenseth and Johnson in points.

It’s unlikely that we’ll see Kenseth or Johnson slip up massively on 1.5-mile tracks or shorter layouts like Martinsville or Phoenix. They’re too good and their teams are on top of their game. But at Talladega, they have to race like they’re on egg-shells, and rather than race the other drivers, they have to race the track.

If they happen to be at the wrong place at the wrong time on the track, they could quickly find themselves a feeling the wrath of the track as “The Big One” happens with 10 to 15 cars wrecking at once. There is no escape, even when a driver is running his line perfectly when some one three or four rows ahead slips. There’s nowhere to go but into the rear of the car in front, and as the tornado of cars spin around, they wipe out just about everything moving.

Because of the volatile nature of the race, many regular NASCAR bettors take a beat seat for this race and wager only a small portion of their allotted bankroll. Every edge they have in handicapping a race on tracks that run true goes out the window at Talladega because now instead of being an advantage player, that bettor is reduced to play roulette at random odds.

In any race of the season other than the four restrictor-plate races, you would never think of a wager on David Ragan’s No. 34 car, but because of his win at Talladega in May at 100/1 odds, he has to be considered, as does his teammate, David Gilliland in the No. 38, who finished second.

So now that we have to consider cars that are jalopies in the other 32 races, it reduces the chances from drivers that statistically have a chance to win. Usually, there are about 15 to 18 drivers a week that a case to win can be made for. At Talladega, that number goes up to 35 drivers. It’s hard enough to win a race weekly under somewhat controlled circumstances, now we have pick one out of 35 that have a chance?

This is why many sharp bettors take a pass on not only Talladega odds to win, but also the driver matchups. The odds for the top drivers are much better, all usually over 10/1, but it’s still not as advantageous as the other races.

However, there aren’t many NASCAR races that provide as much excitement in the final 20 laps of a race, and that feeling is accentuated even more with a wager on one of the drivers. Chances are, because they’re all bunched up so tightly, that no matter who you wager on, he’ll have a chance to be one of the top six drivers on the last lap, and then anything can happen. It’s like the Kentucky Derby on the final turn, except with 850 horses pulling the chariot.

That thrill can’t be matched with any other track, including Daytona, just because Talladega is so much more wider and allows for up to four-wide. The restrictor-plates keep everyone about equal and there really aren’t many tricks teams can do now to gain an edge in their creative engineering. Based on the three restrictor plate races run this season, there are a couple of drivers that have shown to be at least as consistent as one can be under such random conditions.

Jimmie Johnson won at both Daytona races and was fifth at Talladega in May. The No. 55 car has finished in the top-5 of all three races, with Michael Waltrip expected to drive it this week again. And then that’s about it.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #99 Carl Edwards (18/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (14/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (10/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (12/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)

Driver Handicaps: Talladega
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin breaks down all the stats and information to help steer you toward Sunday's Camping World RV Sales 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Who's HOT at Talladega

• Matt Kenseth and David Ragan each have a win and have finished in the top 10 in their last
three starts.
• Clint Bowyer, winner of the 2010 and 2011 fall race, leads all drivers that have competed in
the last 10 races with an 11.4 average finish.
• Jimmie Johnson finished fifth in the spring to help his series-leading average finish of 2.3
in the three restrictor-plate races (Daytona and Talladega) with the Gen-6 car.
• Brad Keselowski has the best average finish in the last four races, including a win in the
2012 spring race.
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers in wins (6) and laps led (840).
• Kyle Busch, winner of the 2008 spring race, has finished third or better in two his last three
starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Talladega

• Dale Earnhardt Jr., a five-time Talladega winner, has posted the second-best average finish (9.0) among all drivers that have competed in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car. Michael Waltrip (10.3), Bowyer (11.0) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (12.0) round out the top five.
• David Gilliland (12.2), Greg Biffle (13.6), Aric Almirola (13.7) and Martin Truex Jr. (14.2) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among all drivers that have raced in the last five events at Talladega.
• Denny Hamlin is one of only three drivers (Kenseth and Johnson) that have led more than 50 laps (53) in the three plate races with the Gen-6 car.
• Kurt Busch (149) and Carl Edwards (130) each ranked in the top five in the spring at Talladega in number of laps run in the top 15.
• Danica Patrick has posted one pole and an average finish of 18.3 in her three Cup starts on restrictor-plate tracks with the Gen-6 car.
• Jeff Burton, who has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts, ranks third in driver ratings over the last 17 races at Talladega.
• Justin Allgaier will be in the No. 51 Chevrolet this weekend, a team that has posted four top
10s - includng one win - at Talladega since 2009.
• Kevin Harvick has finished 11th or better in four of the last seven races at Talladega, including a win in the 2010 spring race.
• Jamie McMurray, winner of the 2009 fall race, is third in laps led (53) in the last five races at Talladega.
• Austin Dillon will be making his first start at Talladega in a Sprint Cup car - the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. Trevor Bayne will also be back in the No. 21 Ford for the Wood Brothers.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kurt Busch
Pete Pistone: Danica Patrick
Dustin Long: Jamie McMurray
John Singler: Paul Menard

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Talladega unless noted)

Matt Kenseth: Defending race winner (while with Roush Fenway Racing); Has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts; Led 142 laps en route to an eighth-place finish in the spring; Leads all drivers in laps led (229) in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Jimmie Johnson: Last of two wins came in the 2011 spring race; Finished fifth in the spring for 10th top 10 in 23 starts; Leads all drivers in average finish (2.3) and wins (2) in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 764) that he won the July Daytona race with and raced at Talladega in the spring.

Kevin Harvick: Winner of the 2009 spring race; 28.3 average finish and one lap led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 432) in the Camping World RV Sales 500.

Jeff Gordon: Last of six wins came in this event in 2007; Finished second in this race last year for 15th top five in 41 starts; 21.7 average finish and 32 laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Posted a 2.5 average finish in both races in 2012; 27.7 average finish and 29 laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Greg Biffle: Posted a 5.5 average finish in both races in 2012; 19.7 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same chassis (No. 852) that he finished 36th with in the spring at Talladega after being involved in a 16-car accident.

Kurt Busch: Finished 30th in the spring in first track start with Furniture Row Racing after being involved in an accident; 21.3 average finish and two laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Clint Bowyer: 15.7 average finish in three starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Won this event in 2010 and 2011 with Richard Childress Racing; Fourth-best average finish (11.0) among all drivers that have raced in the three restrictor-plate events with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 752) that he finished fourth with in July at Daytona.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Last of five wins came in this event in 2004; Has posted four top 10s and led 167 laps in 11 starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Second-best average finish (9.0) among all drivers that have run in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 773) that he raced in all three plate races this season, posting two top 10s at Daytona.

Carl Edwards: Finished third in the spring for fifth top 10 in 18 starts; 21.7 average finish and five laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 797) in the Camping World RV Sales 500.

Joey Logano: Finished 35th (engine) in the spring in first track start with Penske Racing; His four top 10s came in previous eight starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; 31.3 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 653) that he finished 19th with in the Daytona 500.

Ryan Newman: Only top 10 (ninth) in last eight starts came in this event last year; A crash or an engine issue has taken him out of contention in four of those races; Seventh-best average finish (15.7) among all drivers that have driven in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Kasey Kahne: 19.3 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 768) that he posted a 36.7 average finish with in the three plate races this season.

Brad Keselowski: Leads all drivers that have raced in the last four events with a 6.8 average finish; Sixth-best average finish (12.0) among all drivers that have raced in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 648) that he finished 15th with in the spring at Talladega.

Jamie McMurray: Only top 10 (second) in seven starts in an Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet came in the 2010 spring race; Won this event in 2009 with Roush Racing; 20.7 average finish and 12 laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Martin Truex Jr.: 12.7 average finish in seven starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Coming off fifth top 10 in 17 overall starts; 24.0 average finish and five laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Paul Menard: 19.0 average finish in five starts with Richard Childress Racing; 30.0 average finish and two laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 406) that he last finished 43rd with at Daytona after engine issues sidelined him just 23 laps in.

Aric Almirola: 15.3 average finish in four starts with Richard Petty Motorsports; 20.3 average finish and one lap led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 780) that he finished 10th with in the spring at Talladega.

Marcos Ambrose: 21.2 average finish in five starts with Richard Petty Motorsports; 19.3 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 836) that he finished 14th with at Talladega in the spring.

Jeff Burton: Has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts; 24.7 average finish and two laps led in the three restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 410) in the Camping World RV Sales 500.

Camping World RV Sales 500 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS - There was nothing really gained in any of Friday's practice sessions or Saturday's qualifying that was rained out, so there's no need to upgrade any driver to win Sunday's Camping World RV Sales 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The bottom line here still remains that almost every driver in the starting lineup has a chance to win.

The first notion given that any pre-race practice session means little compared to 32 other races without the restrictor plates is that the teams don't care themselves. Kevin Harvick ran only 10 laps in Friday's first practice session, and his 34th fastest lap wasn't too impressive. But he'd prefer to practice conservatively than chance wrecking a brand new chassis specially made for this race.

The Richard Childress drivers have been missing the final practice ahead of plate races for a few years, so it's nothing new, but 13 other cars joined the RCR “I'm good” sentiment and didn't participate in happy hour either.

So where's the starting point to handicapping this race if there is no practice, in the usual sense, to go off of? I think it's fair to say Matt Kenseth has proven to be the most dominant in plate races this season, which also includes pre-season testing and Daytona speed weeks. He has yet to win any of the three plate races - two at Daytona and the other at Talladega in May nor has he captured a top-5 finish, which further illustrates how hard it is to gauge Talladega.

However, Kenseth did lead a lap in all three plate races, including eight different times for 142 of the 192 laps run on Talladega's 2.66-mile monster layout in May. Kenseth also won this race last season while driving for Roush Fenway Racing.

One of the great stories to watch, along with lesser name drivers like David Ragan and David Gilliland competing for a win late, will be watching how point leaders Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson handle this race. Do they go all out and try to stay up front with hopes of leading the most laps, or at least one lap, or do they hang back out of trouble until 10 laps remain? This is the wild card race of the entire 10-race Chase, so chances are we may see a case of monkey-see, monkey-do.