Carfax 400 News and Notes

Carfax 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The last time the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visited Michigan in June, the fans were treated to a fun-filled fuel conservation victory by Mark Martin in one of the better endings of the season that didn’t involve a crash.

Just as Jimmie Johnson was about to take the white flag signaling one lap to go, he ran out of fuel. Just as he started to slow, Greg Biffle sitting in second at the time, must have had his eyes light up in eagerness with the possibility of winning his first race of the season. Just as Biffle was beginning orchestrate his burn-out and victory lap celebration, he too ran out of fuel with less than a lap to go. Cherry picking just behind Biffle, was the elder statesman of the series, Mark Martin, who went on to win his third race of the season.

Most of the drivers knew that they were going to be short on fuel and went into a cruise control mode in order to save fuel without racing too hard, but Johnson and Biffle battled for the lead with five laps to go and all calculations of making 46 laps till the end of the race, when the fuel window is about 40 to 44 laps, went out the window.

The culprit of the attempting to go so long for the drivers were cautions, and lack of them, which seems to be the case at Michigan because of the 2-mile tracks configuration that has lots of room for drivers to maneuver. Only three cautions occurred that day, and the last came on lap 150.

This years race may, or may not come down to fuel mileage, but what we should do when considering the top candidates to win is analyze the June race and determine just who was the best on that day.

Prior to that race, Martin had the best car in Happy Hour, but during the race was maybe the third best car as he ran in the Top 5 for much of the day. During the Race Jimmie Johnson led the most laps, but was beaten off pit road in the last stop by Greg Biffle. Johnson reeled in Biffle with five laps remaining, but could that have been only because Biffle was in conservation mode? How would have Biffle done in the late stages had he been able to go all out with no worries of fuel strategy? It’s likely that he could have just based on Biffle’s history at Michigan where he owns two wins.

Johnson, for all his greatness on just about every track on the circuit, has never won at Michigan. In 15 career races, Johnson has been able to muster only two Top 5 finishes which is amazing considering how good he has been at Michigan‘s nearly identical sister track of California over the same span.

Even though this weeks Michigan race and the one in June are only two months apart, there is nothing set that says those who did well in that race will do equally as good this week. However, in last seasons two races, five drivers finished in the Top 10 for each race. The Fenway-Roush stable of drivers le the charge in 2008 with three of those drivers excelling in both races, and in this race last season, the team was able to place all five of their drivers within the Top 10.

This time around in 2009’s June race, only Biffle and Carl Edwards cracked the Top 10 with Jamie McMurray in toe in 11th. One of the track’s best performers ever Matt Kenseth struggled with a 20th and David Ragan in 15th. It’s still not bad, but it’s not a Top 10 for sure.

Along with Biffle, Edwards should be one to key on the this week because of his dominance on the track over his entire career. He leads all drivers with an average finish of fifth over his career. In June’s race, finished fourth, but wasn’t really a factor or in contention to win.

Towards the end of the June race, Jeff Gordon’s car really came around to being one of the best on the track, nearly as good as his teammates Johnson and Martin. He finished second in that race, which might have been a fourth if not for a few drops of fuel.

Gordon, like Johnson, hasn’t had the type of success he’s had in California as far as wins go. In 33 races, Gordon only has two wins, but does have 16 top-five finishes. His last win came in 2001 which was the last Chevy win at Michigan until Dale Earnhardt Jr won on fumes last season. He has been very happy about his cars for the 1.5 and 2-mile tracks this season, so he should be considered a contender again.

Brian Vickers comes in with four straight Top 10 finishes at Michigan dating back to 2007. He sat on the pole in June’s race, but failed to lead a lap giving way to Kyle Busch. He feels confident his team will race a race before the seasons out and this is the type of track where he can let his horses under the hood run full throttle, which is an ideal situation for him.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
4) #5 Mark Martin (10/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)

Driver Highlights - Michigan
By VI News

Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Michigan International Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last nine races at Michigan. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

# Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 12.5
# Average Running Position of 8.4, second-best
# Driver Rating of 107.2, third-best
# 124 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# 590 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.972 mph, third-fastest
# 1,487 Laps in the Top 15 (85.7%), second-most
# 418 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most

Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

# Two wins, two top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 19.4
# Average Running Position of 12.5, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 97.3, sixth-best
# 100 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 1,218 Laps in the Top 15 (70.2%), eighth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

# One top five, three top 10s
# Average finish of 16.9
# Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 95.8, eighth-best
# 73 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# 1,286 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), fifth-most
# 339 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)

# One win, three top fives, six top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 16.6
# Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 99.3, fifth-best
# 99 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.586 mph, fifth-fastest
# 1,282 Laps in the Top 15 (73.9%), sixth-most
# 402 Quality Passes, third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)

# Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 6.3
# Series-best Average Running Position of 7.4
# Series-best Driver Rating of 114.0
# 138 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# 639 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.126 mph
# Series-high 1,554 Laps in the Top 15 (89.6%)
# Series-high 455 Quality Passes

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)

# Two wins, 16 top fives, 21 top 10s; five poles
# Average finish of 11.5
# Average Running Position of 13.2, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 94.0, ninth-best
# 86 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.325 mph, ninth-fastest
# 1,154 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), ninth-most
# 307 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)

# Two top fives, three top 10s
# Average finish of 13.7
# Average Running Position of 12.3, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 91.4, 10th-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.305 mph, 10th-fastest
# 923 Laps in the Top 15 (69.1%), 12th-most
# 308 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

# Two top fives, six top 10s
# Average finish of 14.9
# Average Running Position of 8.5, third-best
# Driver Rating of 109.6, second-best
# Series-high 205 Fastest Laps Run
# Average Green Flag Speed of 174.047 mph, second-fastest
# 1,417 Laps in the Top 15 (81.7%), third-most
# 333 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)

# Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 9.7
# Average Running Position of 11.8, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 103.4, fourth-best
# 82 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# 595 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 173.741 mph, fourth-fastest
# 1,342 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), fourth-most
# 381 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Odds and Ends - Michigan
By VI News

Michigan International Speedway Data

Race # 23 of 36 (8-16-09)

Track Size: 2 miles
Race Length: 400 miles
Banking/Corners: 18 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 12 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees

Driver Rating at Michigan

Carl Edwards 114.0
Jimmie Johnson 109.6
Greg Biffle 107.2
Matt Kenseth 103.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 99.3
Kurt Busch 97.3
Tony Stewart 96.0
Kyle Busch 95.8
Jeff Gordon 94.0
Denny Hamlin 91.4

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Michigan.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: Brian Vickers, 188.536 mph, 38.198 seconds
2008 race winner: Carl Edwards, 140.351 mph, 8-17-08)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (194.232 mph, 37.069 seconds, (6-18-05)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph, 6-13-99)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.

Driver Handicaps: Michigan
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for Sunday's CARFAX 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 200-lap event.

Who's HOT at Michigan
• Defending event winner Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 6.3 average finish.
• Two-time winner Matt Kenseth has only finished outside of the top 15 three times in 20 starts.
• June winner Mark Martin has five victories and 29 top 10s in 47 starts.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon has an 11.5 average finish in 33 starts.
• Tony Stewart has a 6.7 average finish in his last six starts.
• Brian Vickers has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts.

Keep an Eye on at Michigan
• Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps (223) with the new car at Michigan.
• Michigan is one of four tracks at which Greg Biffle has scored multiple wins.
• Kyle Busch has a 7.0 average finish in the six races on 2-mile tracks with the new car.
• David Ragan has recorded an 8.7 average finish in his last three starts at MIS.
• Denny Hamlin has a 4.5 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2009.
• Juan Pablo Montoya will be back in the same car that dominated at Indianapolis and finished second at Pocono.
• Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both have top 10 driver ratings in the last nine races at MIS.

Track Performers
Mark Martin leads all active full-time drivers with six wins on 2-mile speedways. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth are right behind with five. Martin tops all drivers with 37 top 10s, and Gordon leads all in laps led with 1,545. Carl Edwards, who has made 20 starts, holds the best finishing average on 2-mile tracks at 6.5. Kenseth is second in average finish at 9.7 and Jimmie Johnson (10.8), Gordon (11.1) and Kyle Busch (12.8) round out the top five. Edwards also has the best average finish (4.3) in the six races on 2-mile tracks with the new car.

RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Jeff Gordon
Pete Pistone: Carl Edwards
Rachael West: Tony Stewart
Kym Opalenik: Greg Biffle

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Michigan unless noted)

1. Tony Stewart: Finished seventh in June in track debut with Stewart-Haas; Scored one win and 13 top 10s in previous 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Has only led a combined three laps in last eight starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 493) that finished fourth at Chicagoland after suffering a pit road miscue and a flat tire.

2. Jimmie Johnson: Led 146 laps in June; Finished 22nd in that event after running out of fuel on the last lap while leading; Has recorded six top 10s in 15 starts; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 552) that finished eighth at Chicagoland.

3. Jeff Gordon: Finished second in June after starting from the rear of the field; Also finished second at Auto Club; Has recorded two wins and 21 top 10s in 33 starts; Says his back will be OK after a hard crash last weekend at The Glen.

4. Kurt Busch: Winner of this event in 2007; Finished eighth in June for his seventh top 10; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 605) that finished eighth at Texas.

5. Denny Hamlin: Finished third in June; Has posted three top 10s in seven starts; Will debut a new chassis (No. 253) in the CARFAX 400.

6. Carl Edwards: Defending event winner; Leads all drivers with a 6.3 average finish; Has finished seventh or better in last five starts; Also won the 2007 June race; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 639) that finished fourth at MIS in June.

7. Juan Pablo Montoya: Scored first top 10 (sixth) in June in track debut in a Chevrolet; Will make sixth start in the same car (chassis No. 819) that finished second at Pocono.

8. Kasey Kahne: Winner of the 2006 June race; Finished 21st in June; Has a 16.8 average finish in 11 starts.

9. Ryan Newman: Finished 23rd in June in track debut with Stewart Haas Racing; Recorded two wins and four top 10s in 15 starts with Penske Racing; He will race the same car (chassis No. 531) that finished sixth at Chicagoland.

10. Greg Biffle: Is a two-time winner; two of his six top fives have come in last two starts; Will race the same car (chassis No. 648) that finished fifth in June.

11. Mark Martin: Leads all full-times drivers in wins (5), top fives (17) and top 10s (29); Won June race on fuel mileage; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 550) that finished second at Indianapolis.

12. Matt Kenseth: Two-time winner at the track; 9.6 average finish in 20 starts; Finished in the top 10 in 10 of the last 13 races; Finished 20th in June because he had to pit late due to a loose wheel.

13. Kyle Busch: Scored best track finish (second) in this event last year; Started second and finished 13th in June; Will debut a new chassis (No. 249) in the CARFAX 400.

14. Brian Vickers: Has won the last two poles; Has finished ninth or better in last four races; Finished ninth in June.

15. Clint Bowyer: Coming off first top 10 at the track; Has a 23.0 average finish in seven starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 267) that finished 19th and 22nd, respectively, at Auto Club and Texas.

16. David Reutimann: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in five starts; Finished 19th in June.

17. Marcos Ambrose: Has posted a 37.0 average finish in two starts; Best finish (31st) came in June.

18. Jeff Burton: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 10 starts with Richard Childress racing; Eight top 10s came with Roush Racing; Will race the same car (chassis No. 283) that finished 25th at Indianapolis after cutting a right-side tire.

19. Joey Logano: Finished 25th in first Sprint Cup track start in June; Fell a lap down to the leader early in the race; Will race the same car (chassis No. 247) that finished 12th at Indianapolis.

20. Jamie McMurray: Has scored three top 10s in seven starts with Roush Fenway; Lone top five came with Ganassi in this event in 2004; Will debut a new chassis (No. 670) in the CARFAX 400.

21. Casey Mears: Finished 24th in his first track start with Richard Childress Racing in June; Best finish (fourth) came with Ganassi in 2007; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 282) that finished 19th at Indianapolis.

22. Kevin Harvick: Has recorded six top 10s in 17 starts; Finished 18th in June; Will race the same car (chassis No. 281) that most recently finished 12th at Pocono.

23. Martin Truex Jr: Only top 10s is a pair of runner-up finishes in 2007; Finished 36th in June; Will make eighth start in the same car (chassis No. 80) that raced at Las Vegas and Michigan.

24. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 39th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in June; Qualified sixth in that event; Best finish (19th) came with Team Red Bull in 2008; Will have Mike Shiplett as his new crew chief starting this weekend.

25. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Won 2008 June race in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Has posted a 12.7 average finish in three starts with HMS; Has six top 10s in 20 overall starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 556) that raced at Indianapolis and Pocono.

26. Elliott Sadler: Has posted an average finish of 10.0 in last three starts; Has recorded five top 10s in 21 starts.

27. Bobby Labonte: Has three wins and 16 top 10s in 34 starts; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 530) that finished 28th in his track debut with Hall of Fame Racing.

28. Sam Hornish Jr: Has posted a 24.3 average finish in three starts; Worst finish came this past June in 29th.

29. Reed Sorenson: Finished 27th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in June; Only top 10s came in his first two starts in 2006 with Ganassi; Will have Sammy Johns as his new crew chief starting this weekend.

30. David Ragan: Has posted a 13.0 average finish in five starts; Lone top five (third) came in this event last year; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 633) that finished 15th at MIS in June.

Vickers puts Toyota on pole in Big 3's backyard

BROOKLYN, Mich. (AP) -Thanks to Brian Vickers' fast lap in qualifying Friday, a Toyota will be in pole position for Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan International Speedway.

Although the Michigan track is located less than 100 miles from Detroit, essentially putting it in the backyard of the U.S. auto industry, Vickers didn't seem to think that made it a particularly significant achievement for a team backed by a Japanese automaker.

But in downplaying the significance of outqualifying domestic automakers' teams in their home state, Vickers might have delivered an inadvertent dig.

I don't know if this is the Big Three's home or not,'' Vickers said. ``I guess a couple of them are based out of Washington, D.C., now. And I don't know where the rest are based. So I never really thought about it that way.''

Vickers clearly was referring to the U.S. government's financial assistance to troubled domestic automakers, but insisted he wasn't trying to be flippant.

I'm not trying to be funny,'' Vickers said. ``I don't know where they're headquartered. The government owns them, so I don't know what they'd call their headquarters. Except for Ford. I don't want to make a false statement.''

The government owns 60 percent of General Motors, whose Chevrolet division supplies engines to NASCAR teams. GM recently emerged from bankruptcy and has received government loans. The Canadian government also received a stake in GM, whose headquarters remain in downtown Detroit.

The United States also has an 8 percent interest in Auburn Hills-based Chrysler, maker of Dodge.

MARTIN'S COMEBACK: Winning the June NASCAR race at Michigan was not a rare feat for Mark Martin. How he did it was.

Martin climbed from the 32nd position to set a track record for the greatest improvement from a starting position for a race winner. In 80 NASCAR races at MIS, only 10 winners have come from drivers starting outside the top 15.

Martin, who has five career victories at Michigan, downplayed the significance of the feat.

It's nice to start in the front,'' Martin said. ``But you don't have to. You just do the best you can with what you have to work with. Last time here we qualified 32nd. We didn't want to, but we did. It was what we had to work with.

I don't like to lose qualifying. I felt like I lost. Being 32nd with a car capable of doing what our car is capable of doing, I was embarrassed.''

The 50-year-old Martin said not worrying about his starting position at the time made a difference. Now he is trying to not think too much about his fight to be in the top 12 for NASCAR's championship chase.

I'm just not getting caught up into it,'' said Martin who is 11th in the points standings. ``It would be nice to be locked in, but it's also nice to be contending to get in.

It would be a lot worse if you were in the back and didn't have a shot at it. With our race team and the performance we've had on the race track, all we've got to do is go out and race. If things go against us, we can't help that. The performance of the race team certainly makes me comfortable.''

THE (OTHER) KING: Richard Petty is known as ``The King'' in racing circles, but Juan Pablo Montoya spent part of his week learning about another American icon by the same nickname.

After making an appearance at Target House, a residence for families and patients receiving treatment at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Montoya took his family on a side trip to Graceland.

The verdict?

It was pretty cool. It is a really, really tacky house but it was cool,'' pausing as a crowd of reporters laughed. ``It was! I know for the time, where he was and everything, that was cool but ... like the yellow room and this and that, it was different.''

So, is Montoya an Elvis fan?

I don't mind his music,'' Montoya said. ``Do I turn the radio to listen to Elvis? No. But if a song comes on, I think it is pretty cool.''

SPARK PLUGS: Vickers said he had nothing new to report on his ongoing contract situation. ``It's the same old situation,'' Vickers said. ``It's been going on since October, and I'm just about burned out about it. We agreed on everything, and then it just kept changing.'' ... Nationwide series driver Brad Keselowski also had no update on his plans for next season. ``It's coming, so we'll see,'' he said. ``When I make a move it's just going to happen all at once.'' ... In a post-qualifying news conference, Montoya delivered remarks in Spanish - clearly impressing Martin. ``That is really cool,'' Martin said. ... NASCAR officials said Kasey Kahne, Dave Blaney and Mike Skinner will have to start Sunday's race at the back of the pack after engine changes.

Practice Notes - Carfax 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The final two practice sessions run Saturday as a prep for Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan International Speedway gave somewhat of a preview of who will do well in the race. Most of the drivers who ran well in the first Michigan race in June had a good showing, with a couple shining much brighter than they did then.

One of the surprises from all the teams that ran well in June was that other than Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, most have brought different chassis than they ran then. A portion of the teams have brought their Chicago chassis from the July race. Though the tracks are different in length, the banking in and out of the turns are similar. Others have either brought brand new rides and in a few cases, some have their Indy or Pocono cars.

The star of the day was Brian Vickers who has had some success on these type of horsepower tracks this year, but yet the team still opted to go with a brand new chassis in hopes of attacking the last four races in the race to the chase a bettering their current status of 14th and 96 points behind.

The decision looks to have paid off because if just comparing the June practice times to this weekends. Vickers was fast throughout the June Michigan practices, netted the pole, but finished only ninth, which is the main statistic they look to improve upon this week.

This week, Vickers looks much faster and better suited to captured Red Bull Racing's first win and more importantly, chop their deficit in the Chase.

In the first session Vickers ran the quickest lap early on and went on to have the second best average speeds among drivers running at least 15 laps. He ended up getting 27 laps in and showed that he should be really good in the critical Michigan long runs.

During Happy Hour, Vickers laid down his quickest lap early which was second fastest overall. Overall, Vickers ran the most laps combined between the two sessions and was consistently fast throughout.

Mark Martin was fastest at Michigan in June's Happy Hour and won the race. This week, Martin is once again fastest in Happy Hour as he'll be attempting to win the sixth Michigan race of his career. Martin, surprisingly, didn't bring his winning chassis from June, but rather his Indy chassis that finished second. For whatever reason that caused the change, this team is dialed in once again and will contend for the win.

Jimmie Johnson had the best car in June's race leading the most laps, but his team brought his eighth place Chicagoland chassis. He was a faster in practice this time around, but equally good in average times. Michigan has seen Johnson have the best car on a few occasions, but can never seal the deal. It remains one of the few tracks Johnson has yet to win at.

While Johnson will be running hard for win to get bonus points in the Chase, Juan Pablo Montoya will be taking it easy and keeping his goals modest with gaining a high top-10 finish. However, his car looks good enough to contend for the win this week.

Montoya was third fastest in the first session, but the most attractive stat of all in practice was his average times and Montoya was faster than anyone in all combined average laps from both practices. He brought his second place finishing Pocono chassis and used notes from their sixth place Michigan finish in June to re-set it. Should Montoya win, it would be his second career Michigan win, with the other coming in Champ Cars.

Carl Edwards has the best average finish at Michigan among all divers, but his speeds were less than what he did in June when he finished fourth. Happy Birthday Carl!

Greg Biffle looked to have one of the best cars in June when he battled Johnson for the win for the final 10 laps, but struggled in both sessions today despite bringing the exact same chassis. Chances are based on their past at Michigan, Biffle's team will make the needed changes to be better as the race goes on.

Jeff Gordon had a strong final practice in average laps times between both sessions where he came close to Montoya's times. The most consistent area of Gordon's 2009 campaign has been on the 1.5-mile and two-mile tracks. At Michigan in June, Gordon didn't lead a lap, but he did finish second. He's in that comfortable mode right now where he could let it all hang out for bonus Chase points and go for the win.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. brought the chassis he ran at Indy and Pocono this week to Michigan and had a great Happy Hour with the eighth quickest lap. He ran 36 laps and was very competitive with the leaders in average lap speeds.

Kyle Busch is starting 39th and needs to have a good run to help erase his 56 point deficit in the Race to the Chase where he sits in 13th. Busch brought himself a chassis for this race in hopes of breathing some fresh air into the garage, but unlike Vickers, Busch's practice times Saturday didn't show much improvement from their June Michigan practice.

This may be a race where Busch has to bite the bullet and shoot for a top-15 finish rather than push the car more than it can do. He still has Bristol and Richmond coming up where he should run well considering he won their in the spring, so the best thing to do right now is points race, stay out of trouble, and stay out on a caution to lead a lap gaining five points.

Saturday Happy Hour: Top 5 Speeds
1) Mark Martin 181.717 mph - AVG 37 laps @ 175.414
2) Brian Vickers 181.621 mph - AVG 46 laps @ 176.653
3) David Ragan 180.519 mph - AVG 39 laps @ 175.650
4) David Stremme 180.451 mph - AVG 30 laps @ 175.286
5) Jimmie Johnson 180.419 mph - AVG 38 laps @ 176.650

Saturday's First Practice: Top 5 Speeds
1) Brian Vickers 184.909 mph - AVG 27 laps @ 178.063
2) Tony Stewart 184.838 mph - AVG 18 laps @ 177.364
3) Juan Pablo Montoya 184.696 mph - AVG 13 laps @ 179.395
4) Joey Logano 184.544 mph - AVG 22 laps @ 177.939
5) Mark Martin 184.488 mph - AVG 22 laps @ 175.202

Top 10 Driver Rating for this weeks Michigan race following all practice and qualifying sessions with a slight mix of June's Michigan race, current team situation, and overall Michigan track history.
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Mark Martin
3) Brian Vickers
4) Juan Pablo Montoya
5) Jeff Gordon
6) Carl Edwards
7) Kurt Busch
8) Tony Stewart
9) Clint Bowyer
10) Greg Biffle

Carfax 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

By virtue of winning his third race of the season at Watkins Glen last week all Tony Stewart needs to do is get in his car and start his engine at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday at 1 p.m. for the Carfax 400 and Smoke is guaranteed a spot in the Chase, which means there are 11 Chase spots up for grabs with four races to go before the points reset.

Gamblers looking for an edge this Sunday should note that 64 percent of the races run at Michigan, or 51 of 80 races, have been won from within the Top-5 spots on the grid. However, in recent history at Michigan this has been the exception. Only three races in the past 10 have been won by a driver who started in the Top 10 on the grid while four of the past 10 races have been won by drivers who started 24th or higher. In fact, in the spring race Mark Martin won after starting from 32nd.

Who will win the 2009 Carfax 400?

Carl Edwards kind of figured that Watkins Glen race leaders Tony Stewart and Mark Ambrose would run out of gas and he’d pass them for the win. They didn’t and Edwards finished third at the Glen. He needed a strong finish to keep his hold on sixth place in the NSCS standings. This Sunday Edwards has a good chance to improve on last week’s third-place finish.

Michigan is the place where it all began for Edwards, who popped his Sprint Cup cherry at MIS. This week Edwards is the Carfax 400 defending champion and it’s highly probable that the driver who won six races last year will win his first race of the year on Sunday. How good is “Concrete” Carl at MIS? In 10 races Edwards has six Top-5 and nine Top-10 finishes.

Michigan’s second best driver is Stewart with an average finish of 7.40. However, given his position in the NSCS standings I have a hard time seeing the ultra-competitive Stewart pushing too hard for the chance at 10 bonus points. As it is Smoke already will have 30 bonus points when the points reset and while I see Stewart finishing in the Top 10 (or even Top 5) I don’t see him taking un-necessary chances to win either; an eighth place finish feels about right to me.

I don’t think there is any chance that Kurt Busch overtakes Jeff Gordon for third in the NSCS standings this week, but Gordon slammed hard into the wall last week and he’ll have a hard time shaking it off with the damage and pain he’s already had in his back. Something tells me he’ll be driving to earn points this week rather than to win and I look to Gordon to finish in the high Top 10 to Top 15.

Kyle Busch is set at 8/1 to win on Sunday and really needs to do well at Michigan but if past history is an indication, and sometimes it is, Joe Gibbs Racings’ cars and Kyle Busch have not run well at MIS. While Kyle qualifies well at MIS he manages to lose between 5-7 positions during the race and ends up not doing nearly as well as you would expect him to do and this week I don’t see Busch improving on 13th in the NSCS standings.

In fact, in the last five races at MIS Edwards is the best driver in the Sprint Cup with an average finish of 4.00. So if you don’t like Edwards to win you can hedge your sports investment by backing Edwards to finish in the Top 3 at 2/1 and cover your win market bet as well and have a good chance of both of your bets cashing.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (7/1)

2009 Carfax 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

MIS was the place where Dale Earnhardt, Jr, killed a 76-race winless streak and now he’ll hope he can kill another one -- a bad luck streak. To say Junior has weathered bad luck this year is to put it mildly. The fan-favorite is enduring one of the worst years in his racing career. Bad years happen. But when you are driving for a proven winner like Hendrick Motor Sports, who have already had wins with three drivers this year, it is expected that you fix what is wrong quickly. And when you drive for HMS when bad things happen they should not happen for more than a race or two, right? Replacing Junior’s crew chief in mid-season this year has not brought the improvement that HMS had hoped; in Junior’s last five races he’s notched three DNFs and a 15th at the Lifelock 400 and a 28th two weeks ago at Pocono. Junior returns to Michigan as the fifth best active driver at MIS. In 10 races he has one win, three Top-5s and four Top-10s. His average start position is 18.10 but has an average finish of 12.00 at MIS. So this week I am going to take a flyer on NASCAR’s most popular driver at tasty 35/1 to win odds.

Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No. 88, (35/1)

2009 Carfax 400 - Odds for Top-3 Finish

Biffle is the fourth best active driver at MIS. In 10 races Biffle has won twice and posted five Top-5s and seven Top-10 finishes and while his average start position is 14.80, Biffle’s average finish is 10.50 -- just slightly worse than Matt Kenseth, who is third at MIS with an average 10.30 finish. Add that to the fact that Rousch Fenway Racing does really well in their backyard (RFR is just up the road from MIS). Biffle won at Michigan back-to-back in August 2004 and June 2005 but hasn’t won since. However, Biffle’s last two races at Michigan have produced Top-5 results; a fourth in August and a fifth this June. Last week at The Glen Biffle improved on his starting position of seventh with a fifth-place finish, which put him firmly in 10th place in the NSCS standings, with a great chance to make the Chase. Like last week, though, Biffle will feel the pressure from bubble-boy Kyle Busch who is 13th in the standings and looking to make up 57 points for the 12th and final spot. I see Biffle having another great race at Michigan this Sunday. I will also put down a few ducats on Junior to finish the Carfax 400 in the Top-three at 11/1.

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (27/10)
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No. 88, (11/1)