Carfax 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It’s been eight races since Denny Hamlin last won a race. The last time came in the 15th race of the Sprint Cup schedule at Michigan which at that time was his fifth win within his last 12 starts. He was on top of the NASCAR world and anointed the slayer by many -- including me -- to take down the dragon of four-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson.
Winning races is a tough thing to accomplish, especially when considering the likes of the top-three in points like Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton haven‘t even won a race this season. But Hamlin has gone from third in points to sixth with a mix of bad luck, uncompetitive cars, and at least one lackadaisical attitude towards an up coming race. In the last seven races he’s only had one top-five finish, a fifth-place run at his best track of Pocono, mixed in with a couple of mediocre finishes, and three really bad finishes of 24th or worse.
He completely dismissed both road course races as not important and it showed as he finished 34th or worse at Sonoma and last week at Watkins Glen saying the team didn’t do any road course testing like all the other top teams because the races represent only two of the 36. The Sonoma race on June 20 was where his bad luck streak all started and he hasn’t been able to shake the funk.
There are only four races left in the “Race to the Chase” and Hamlin will be one of those drivers. His five wins would put him right at the top of the adjusted standings with Jimmie Johnson were the Chase to begin today, but can a team lay down during a final stretch run and just pick things back up during the playoffs as if momentum means nothing and performance can be turned on like a light switch.
We see teams all the time in other sports resting players in the final games of the regular season to save them for the playoffs, but a cohesion has been broken that is sometimes hard to get back into the rhythm that afforded them the option to rest players. Hamlin didn’t take his road races seriously and it has now carried over into his performance in other races.
The final “Race to the Chase” will be at his home-state track of Richmond where he always run well at and hopefully they can begin to gain some momentum there as they head into the Chase for the Championship 10 race run.
This week at Michigan, Hamlin and his team have chosen to use the 10th place chassis from last years Michigan race rather than the winner from earlier this year, which doesn‘t sound very promising amid their current struggles. Crew chief Mike Ford and the team know a lot more than I do and don’t have to validate their reasons, but it’s similar to two weeks ago at Pocono when they didn’t use the winning chassis there that was 3-for-3 in wins. They did finish fifth in that race, but it makes you wonder why they wouldn’t go in with their absolute best at a track they won at.
This week’s race at Michigan should see a nice mix of top candidates to win that now includes the Ford’s of Roush Racing again, a track that Roush has dominated over the years. Both Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle appear to have a little more under the hood than they had on their last visit to the Brooklyn, Michigan track. Edwards is a two-time Michigan winner and has the tracks best average finish at 6.6 per race. He finished 12th in the early race there this year while Biffle finished ninth. Biffle has an all-time average finish of 12.1 on the track that includes two wins.
Michigan is one of four tracks that Jimmie Johnson has never won at, but he’s been pretty good at crossing off tracks on his bucket list this season with wins at Bristol and Sonoma. He’s been good enough to win on several occasions, but always has a mishap near the end of what looked to be great days. In 17 career starts, he’s had only top-five finishes over his career. This week he’ll be using the chassis he used at Chicago where he finished 25th.
Jeff Gordon has perhaps the best streak of all coming into Michigan having finished runner-up in both races last year and fourth this year. He has been one of the best drivers on all the 1.5 and 2-mile tracks over the last two seasons, but can‘t seem to seal the deal. Look for Gordon to have one of his better opportunities to end his winless streak that dates back to early last season at Texas.
Kurt Busch finished third in the first Michigan race this season and has been tough on all the down force tracks capturing both of his wins this year at Charlotte and Atlanta. He has two career wins at Michigan, but a not-so attractive 19.4 career average finished helped dramatically by starting his Michigan career off with two 43rd place finishes during his rookie year in 2001.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #99 Carl Edwards (18/1)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (18/1)
4) #2 Kurt Busch (10/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
CARFAX 400 Driver Notes & Quotes: Michigan Speedway
By Micah Roberts
MARK MARTIN ON REJOINING THE TOP 12 IN POINTS: "We knew this was going to be a fight for us. And it's definitely not over. We gained points in Pocono, and we gained again in Watkins Glen. We have got to keep doing that. This team is improving every week; we just have to keep that going in Michigan this weekend. It's a good feeling to be back in there, but it's not at all a relief. We have four races to go. Anything can happen. We can't slip up. We can't have a bad day. We've got to keep moving forward."
MARTIN ON HIS CHANCES OF GAINING MORE POINTS THIS WEEKEND AT MICHIGAN: "I think, if you look back at how we improved at Indianapolis and how we improved at Pocono, that we have to look at Michigan as another track where we can build momentum and gain some points. We're taking the same car this weekend that we took to both of those tracks. It's my favorite car in the whole Hendrick stable. So that gives me a little confidence, too. Anything can happen though, and we need to be prepared for those anythings."
MARTIN MICHIGAN CHASSIS CHOICE: Gustafson has chosen Chassis No. 5-550 for Sunday's race at Michigan. This is the same chassis that Martin drove to a seventh-place finish at Pocono Raceway two weeks ago. In July, Martin raced this car to an 11th-place finish at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
DENNY HAMLIN ON THE HUGE GROUNDS HIS TEAM HAS RECENTLY MADE AT MICHIGAN: "Absolutely, this is a track where we never ran very well early in my career, we struggled and had some bad luck. It was also a combination of my comfort level and just not being able to get the car where we needed it. I think it was June of last season that we came here with a new car and a new set up and it clicked. We were fast off the truck and finished third and it was a turning point for us in a lot of ways. We came back in August and ran in the top ten and then really hit on it when we came back this year and dominated a race probably as much as I ever have. It was a great day for us so that definitely gives us confidence coming back to a track."
HAMLIN MICHIGAN CHASSIS SELECTION: The FedEx team will unload Chassis JGR 253 this weekend in Michigan. This car scored a tenth-place finish at Michigan in August of 2009. JGR 267 will serve in backup duty.
CLINT BOWYER ON THE PRESSURE HE AND HIS TEAM ARE FEELING AS THE CHASE NEARS: “The pressure is definitely there, but with the way our cars are running, we’re still looking ahead. We took a hit in the points the last two races, but I’m not too worried just yet. There are still four races left, all at different tracks. So, there’s a lot of racing left and plenty of time to get a lot of things accomplished. We just need to focus on each race, individually, and perform like we’re capable of performing. Our finishes the last two races are not necessarily signs of how good are cars have run. We’re better than those results and we just need to prove by finishing well the next few weeks.”
BOWYER ON WHAT HAPPENED IN JUNE'S MICHIGAN RACE WHERE HE FINISHED 22ND: "Michigan has been one of those tracks that we’ve always run well at. We always have some ups and downs as far as crazy, off-the-wall things that happen to us. We had a top-ten run going last time, but we pitted while others stayed out. We ended up in the fence and had a horrible finish. You never know how these races will shake out. These multiple attempts at green-white-checkered allow guys to get two laps back, put tires on, race their way into the top ten and knock you out of the way in the process. There are a lot of things that are happening and you have to play your cards right throughout the whole race, not just half of it. If we can do that, we’ll be successful.”
BOWYER MICHIGAN CHASSIS SELECTION: Bowyer will pilot Chassis No. 315 from the Richard Childress Racing NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stable. This is a brand new Chevrolet Impala that will be put through its first paces this weekend.
JEFF BURTON ON WHY HIS TEAM HASN'T FARED WELL AT MICHIGAN: “Michigan has been our worst race track. It has been a track where we have struggled and have not been good at all. It has pushed us, tricked us and made us mad. But, it’s a place where we have to find a way to improve. We had some circumstances and have been in some situations that made the finishes look worse than they really were. I like going to Michigan because it’s a fun race track. It gets pretty slick and there’s a lot of options and those are the places I tend to run well on. We took a step forward in the spring and we ran well. That was a step forward from what I’ve been doing there and I hope to be able to improve on that. Michigan has really been one of our weak points.”
BURTON MICHIGAN CHASSIS SELCTION: Burton will race chassis No. 317 from the Richard Childress Racing NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stable. Built new this season, this is the same Caterpillar Chevrolet Burton drove to an eighth-place finish at Pocono Raceway on August 1.
KEVIN HARVICK ON WHY RCR TEAMS ALWAYS SEEM TO STRUGGLE AT MICHIGAN: “I don’t know. We just struggle finding a balance in the car. Obviously, we have great horsepower and that’s not a problem. Our cars are great week in and week out, but for whatever reason, we find it tough to find a balance on the car – whether it’s too loose or too tight. It’s a fun race track. I really enjoy going there and you have a lot of options as a driver to be able to move from the top to the bottom of the race track. It’s a fun place to go, so, hopefully, this time we can turn it around.”
HARVICK MICHIGAN CHASSIS SELECTION: Harvick will pilot Chassis No. 288 from the Richard Childress Racing NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stable. Earlier in the year, this Chevrolet scored a runner-up finish at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and at Auto Club Speedway finished ninth at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and finished seventh at Dover International Speedway. Additionally, Harvick raced this chassis three times in the latter part of the 2009 season, finishing 18th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, fifth at Texas Motor Speedway and third at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. ON BRINGING BACK THE SAME CHASSIS FROM JUNE: “Lance (McGrew, crew chief) and the guys unloaded a great car last time at Michigan. We’ve had some good runs with this car. I enjoy going to Michigan because it’s so wide. It has a lot of different grooves, and we can move around and find places to run on the track. We like coming here because it’s in the backyard of the manufacturers. Hopefully we’ll get a win for Chevrolet.”
EARNHARDT JR CREW CHIEF LANCE McGREW ON MICHIGAN BEING A FUEL-MILEAGE RACE: “It’s very strange because even in the (NASCAR) Nationwide Series, they changed the length of the race to try to make it not be a fuel-mileage race, and it still always comes down to that. I don’t know if it’s just luck, but it doesn’t make any sense why it always seems to come down to it but it always does. It’s not like we always have an even number of pit stops. I guess probably more than anything else, there are not usually a lot of cautions, so you’re going to stretch it the most you can because track position still means a lot just like everywhere else. It just kind of works out that way.”
MCGREW ON WHY EARNHARDT LIKES CHASSIS NO. 88-599: “We’ve had success with this car, but it’s not vastly different than any of our other cars. We’ve used this car at racetracks that he (Earnhardt) really enjoys going to, and it just happened that we ran the same car at those events. We have made some substantial changes to it since the first Michigan race. Even though we felt like we were really good there last time, as a company we are going in a direction that we feel like is going to make us even better this time.”
GREG BIFFLE ON RACING AT MICHIGAN: I love Michigan. It is my favorite track on the circuit and I’m really looking forward to going there. I like Michigan because I’ve had success there with wins in the Sprint Cup Series and the Truck Series. I also like that you can race three and four wide at a down force track. As a driver, you have so many options. You can run the bottom, middle or top. It is a strategy race and fuel mileage often comes into play – sometimes in your favor and sometimes not. I just like the way the track is laid out and I think you see good racing there.”
BIFFLE CREW CHIEF GREG ERWIN ON MICHIGAN AND CHASSIS CHOICE: “Well, we’d obviously love to give Ford their second cup win of the season in their own backyard this weekend in Michigan. We are taking the car we raced at Chicagoland earlier this year. We had a top-five run going at that race before the engine failure left us with a 35th-place finish. This is a race where pit strategy is important and fuel mileage is usually a factor. You also have to watch for overheating because there can be a lot of trash blowing around at this track. We need a good finish this weekend and I feel like we can get it done in Michigan.”
MATT KENSETH ON RACING AT MICHIGAN: “I consider Michigan one of my favorite tracks on the Cup circuit. I always enjoy going to Michigan since it’s the Midwest and we’ve had some good runs there in the past. Success at Michigan is about having a car that handles well since it’s a big sweeping track with plenty of room and lanes to pass. If you can get your car to handle the right way, you can have a lot of fun racing there. Racing at Michigan is also significant because it’s the headquarters for Roush Industries and Ford Motor Company, so it’s always a big weekend for us at a place we consider one of our home tracks.”
KENSETH MICHIGAN CHASSIS: Primary: RK-672 (last raced at Charlotte)
KYLE BUSCH ON IF HE HE'S LOOKING FORWARD GOING BACK TO MICHIGAN: “I know Denny (Hamlin, driver of the No. 11 JGR Toyota and the winner of the June event at Michigan) is really looking forward to going back there because he’s going to take the same car, same stuff, same everything (EDITOR NOTE - HE'S WRONG). Myself and Dave (Rogers, crew chief), we’re going to take a new car there and try to shake down a new Interstate Batteries Camry. We feel like we only have one really, really good racecar for the Chase. We need to find a second one. You can’t go into a 10-race stretch with one bullet. We’ve got a little bit of work ahead of us, but we’re hoping this week at Michigan we can find a good racecar. We’ve got some work ahead of us to find some good tuning tools to work within the Chase. We’ll try to keep ourselves locked into it here the next four races and then go fight them at the end.”
TONY STEWART'S APPROACH HEADING INTO THE LAST FOUR RACES BEFORE THE CHASE: “You have to be cautiously aggressive. You still have to keep in mind that if you take a chance and don’t finish a race, that you’ll lose a lot of points, and the 10 bonus points you thought you might gain for the Chase won’t happen either. You have to do the same things that have gotten you to victory lane in the past. You can’t afford to take too many unnecessary chances. The main thing for us is to do the things we’ve been doing to keep us in position where we can win races each week and get those bonus points for the Chase.”
STEWART ON HOW HE'S BEEN ABLE TO STAY CONSISTENT SINCE FINISHING 23RD ON MAY 8 AT DARLINGTON AND SINCE, FINISHING OUTSIDE THE TOP-10 ONLY TWICE: “We’re getting our cars better, and that’s what I’m happy about. I’m not really that worried about the points. I mean, it’s not like we’re comfortable because we’re not locked in yet. So, you still have to worry about it, but I’m more worried about what we’ve got if we get to the Chase. It doesn’t matter if we get to the Chase and don’t have anything to run for a championship with. We’ve got to just keep plugging away. We’re not all the way there, but we’re gaining on it and that’s encouraging. This is the time of the year when you want to be building momentum and not losing it. We’ve had some strong runs here recently. I’m hoping that trend is going to keep going. If it does, I’d much rather be in this situation than leading the points when it doesn’t get you anything.”
Michigan Tale of the Tape: The Favorites
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
· Enters Michigan 11th in points
· Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 12.8
· Average Running Position of 9.5, third-best
· Driver Rating of 102.8, third-best
· 129 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 789 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.747 mph, third
· 1,740 Laps in the Top 15 (81.5%), third-most
· 517 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), second-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite/Vortex Dodge)
· Fourth in points
· Two wins, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 19.4
· Average Running Position of 12.2, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.5, fifth-best
· 122 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.413 mph, eighth-fastest
· 1,535 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), fifth-most
· 392 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
· Seventh in points
· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 17.7
· Average Running Position of 14.9, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.2, 11th-best
· 73 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.133 mph, 10th
· 1,447 Laps in the Top 15 (67.8%), ninth-most
· 390 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard “Drive The Guard”/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
· 16th in points
· One win, four top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.5
· Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.6, sixth-best
· 113 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 821 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.470 mph, fifth-fastest
· 1,497 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), eighth-most
· 492 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
· Ninth in points
· Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 6.6
· Series-best Average Running Position of 7.9
· Series-best Driver Rating of 111.2
· 143 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· 792 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.943 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 1,901 Laps in the Top 15 (89.0%)
· Series-high 558 Quality Passes
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
· Second in points
· Two wins, 18 top fives, 23 top 10s; five poles
· Average finish of 11.0
· Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 97.9, eighth-best
· 113 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.417 mph, seventh-fastest
· 1,533 Laps in the Top 15 (71.8%), sixth-most
· 421 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)
· Sixth in points
· One win, three top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 11.9
· Average Running Position of 11.0, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.4, seventh-best
· 80 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.455 mph, sixth-fastest
· 1,292 Laps in the Top 15 (74.5%), 11th-most
· 411 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)
· Fifth in points
· Two top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 15.4
· Average Running Position of 7.9, second-best
· Driver Rating of 110.7, second-best
· Series-high 252 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 174.048 mph
· 1,809 Laps in the Top 15 (84.7%), second-most
· 449 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Ford)
· 17th in points
· One win, six top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.2
· Average Running Position of 16.8, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.9, 13th-best
· 99 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 808 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.962 mph, 13th-fastest
· 1,035 Laps in the Top 15 (48.5%), 13th-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
· 10th in points
· Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.0
· Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.2, fourth-best
· 90 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 817 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.592 mph, fourth-fastest
· 1,607 Laps in the Top 15 (75.3%), fourth-most
· 499 Quality Passes, third-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet)
· 12th in points
· Five wins, 17 top fives, 29 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.3
· Average Running Position of 15.0, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.9, 12th-best
· 64 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.072 mph, 11th-fastest
· 1,305 Laps in the Top 15 (61.1%), 10th-most
· 363 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
· Eighth in points
· One win, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.1
· Average Running Position of 13.3, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.7, ninth-best
· 56 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 782 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.392 mph, ninth-fastest
· 1,522 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), seventh-most
· 431 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Driver Handicaps: Michigan
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for Sunday's CARFAX 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 200-lap event.
Who's HOT at Michigan
• June winner Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts.
• Two-time winner Kurt Busch led 60 laps en route to a third-place finish in June.
• Two-time winner Carl Edwards leads all drivers with a 6.6 average finish.
• Two-time winner Matt Kenseth has only finished outside of the top 15 three times in 22 starts.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon has a 2.7 average finish in his last three starts.
• Two-time winner Greg Biffle has a 9.5 average finish in his last four starts.
• 2009 June winner Mark Martin leads all full-time drivers in wins (5) and top 10s (29).
• Tony Stewart has a 7.8 average finish in his last eight starts.
Keep an Eye on at Michigan
• Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps (356) with the COT at Michigan.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Michigan.
• Jeff Burton has a 5.5 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010.
• 2008 June winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a 9.6 average finish in the five races with the COT at Michigan.
• Kasey Kahne finished second in June.
• Clint Bowyer finished in the top 10 in both Michigan races in 2009.
• Kevin Harvick will pilot the same car that finished second at Indianapolis and Auto Club this season.
• Jamie McMurray will be driving the same car that has scored two poles and two top fives this season.
Top 25 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Michigan unless noted)
1. Kevin Harvick: Six top 10s in 19 starts; Eighth-best average finish (13.8) in the five races with the COT; Has yet to lead a lap in the last 13 races; Finished 19th in June; 10.5 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 288) that he finished second with at Indianapolis and Auto Club this season.
2. Jeff Gordon: 13.6 average finish in the five races with the COT; Finished second in both races in 2009 and fourth in June; Has recorded two wins and 23 top 10s in 35 starts; 12.0 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010.
3. Jeff Burton: Coming off first top 10 (eighth) in 12 starts with Richard Childress Racing; 15.6 average finish in the five races with the COT; Scored eight top 10s with Roush Racing from 1996-2002; Third-best average finish (5.5) in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 317) that he finished eighth at Pocono.
4. Kurt Busch: Led 60 laps from the pole en route to a third-place finish in June; Finish was fourth top 10 in nine starts with Penske Racing; Won this event in 2007 after leading 92 laps; Also won the 2003 June race with Roush Racing; Second-best average finish (4.5) in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 734) in the CARFAX 400.
5. Jimmie Johnson: Coming off seventh top 10 (sixth) in 17 starts; 16.8 average finish in the five races with the COT; Only driver to lead more than 130 laps with the COT (356); Led 133 laps in this event last year; Finished 33rd in that event; Leads all drivers with a 3.5 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will race the same car (chassis No. 610) that he led 92 laps with at Chicago before finishing 25th.
6. Denny Hamlin: Captured first win in nine starts in June after leading 123 laps; Win was third consecutive top 10; Sixth-best average finish (13.4) in the five races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 253) that he finished 10th with in August of 2009.
7. Kyle Busch: Tenth-best average finish (14.2) in the five races with the COT; Only top five (second) in 11 starts came with Joe Gibbs Racing in the 2008 August race; Started 39th and finished 23th in this event last year; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 280) in the CARFAX 400.
8. Tony Stewart: 9.7 average finish in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Fifth-place run in June was best finish with the team; Scored one win and 13 top 10s in previous 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Second-best average finish (9.2) in the five races with the COT; Has only led a combined five laps in last 10 starts; 7.0 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 564) that he finished fifth with at Michigan in June.
9. Carl Edwards: Two-time winner; Leads all drivers with a 5.6 average finish in the five races with the COT; Overall 6.6 average finish in 12 starts also leads all drivers; Has finished 12th or better in the last seven races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 695) that he finished seventh with at Indianapolis.
10. Matt Kenseth: Fourth-best average finish (11.2) in the five races with the COT; Two wins and 13 tops 10s in 22 starts; Finished 14th in the last two races; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 672) that he finished 10th with at Charlotte.
11. Greg Biffle: Two-time winner; Fifth-best average finish (11.6) in the five races with the COT; Coming off ninth top 10 in 15 starts; 9.5 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 571) that he was running sixth with at Chicago until the engine expired.
12. Mark Martin: Leads all full-times drivers in wins (5) and top 10s (29); Won the 2008 June race on fuel mileage; 15.8 average finish in the five races with the COT; Finished 16th in June; 10.0 average finish in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010; Will race the same car (chassis No. 550) that most recently finished seventh at Pocono two weeks ago.
13. Clint Bowyer: Scored first top 10s in nine starts in 2009 races; Eighth-place finish last August is best-to-date; Finished 22nd in June; 17.2 average finish in the five races with the COT; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 315) in the CARFAX 400.
14. Ryan Newman: 23.3 average finish in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Last of four top 10s in 2004 was one of two wins with Penske racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 579) that he finished 11th with at Texas in April.
15. Jamie McMurray: Started second and finished 24th in June with Earnhardt-Ganassi; Last of four top 10s came in 2008 when he finished 10th in both races with Roush Racing; Will make 16th start in the same car (chassis No. 1006) that he won the pole with at Darlington and Chicagoland and finished second and fifth, respectively.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Won 2008 June race in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; 9.6 average finish in five starts with HMS; Coming off eighth top 10 in 22 starts with a seventh-place run in June; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 599) that he finished seventh with at Michigan in June.
17. Kasey Kahne: Coming off sixth top five in 13 starts after finishing second in June; Winner of the 2006 June race; 15.2 average finish in the five races with the COT.
18. David Reutimann: Scored only top 10 (ninth) in seven starts last year in this event; Started ninth and finished 18th in June; 19.0 average finish in the five races with the COT.
19. Juan Pablo Montoya: Only top 10 (sixth) came in the 2009 June race; Finished 13th in June; Has yet to lead a lap in seven starts; 20.2 average finish in the five races with the COT; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 1015) that finished 13th at Michigan in June.
20. Martin Truex Jr: Only top 10s in nine starts is a pair of runner-up finishes in 2007; Finished 17th in June in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; 21.4 average finish in the five races with the COT.
21. Joey Logano: 14.0 average finish in three starts; Best finish (seventh) came in this event last year; Fifth-best average finish (7.5) in the two races on 2-mile speedways in 2010.
22. AJ Allmendinger: 25.0 average finish in six starts; Coming off best finish in 11th; Will pilot a car (chassis No. 288) that he finished in the top 15 with four times this season.
23. Paul Menard: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in eight starts; 24.0 average finish in the five races with the COT; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 683) that he finished 25th with at Michigan in June.
24. David Ragan: Posted two top-10 finishes in 2008, with a best third in the August event; 18.4 average finish in seven starts;
Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that he finished 34th with at Michigan.
25. Brad Keselowski: Finished 27th in first track start with Penske Racing in June; First start came in this event last year with Hendrick Motorsports where he finished 24th; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 726) that he finished 21st with at Pocono in June.
NASCAR Betting: Roush Racers The Sharp Bet at Michigan
By Greg Engle
For the second time this season, NASCAR heads back to the Irish Hills in Michigan. This time for Sunday’s CARFAX 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
The second visit nearly always gives teams a challenge as the track tends to be very different than the first race in June. The other difference is that a team that once dominated at MIS seems to be coming out of its slump and could be ready to put on a show this weekend.
Roush-Fenway Racing drivers used to be the ones to beat. And since the last visit to Michigan in June, Roush drivers are starting to show signs of finding their winning ways. Three of their drivers have two wins each at MIS, making them the team to beat.
Coming off a pole and a fifth-place finish last week at Watkins Glen, Carl Edwards (+1,500) will be the favorite this week. Sunday will mark the sixth anniversary of Edwards’ first Cup race and he clearly has the momentum on his side.
“It's because of all the hard work everybody has been putting in,” Edwards said this week. “Greg (Biffle) got that win a couple weeks ago, and right now we've got three cars in the Chase. Michigan is one of the best tracks we could be going to right now. We've been working really hard on our intermediate program. The new FR9 engine has been running well.”
Michigan is known for long fuel-mileage runs and according to Greg Erwin, crew chief for Greg Biffle that will shift the focus away from the driver somewhat.
“This is a race where pit strategy is important and fuel mileage is usually a factor,” Erwin said. “You also have to watch for overheating because there can be a lot of trash blowing around at this track.”
Speaking of Greg Biffle (+1500), he’s coming off a breakthrough win, the first of the season for him and Ford a few weeks ago. And with a record of two wins, six Top 5s and nine Top-10 finishes here, Biffle could easily be the one to beat Sunday.
Others to watch
Kurt Busch (+800): Busch has shown signs of life lately. He was a surprising second at Watkins Glen and has a record of two wins, one pole, one Top 5 and three Top 10s at Michigan. Busch could very well surprise again this weekend and wheel his Dodge into victory lane.
Mark Martin (+3000): Despite a mediocre season, Martin did win the first race at MIS last season and rolls in with an impressive five wins, leading all active drivers, along with 17 Top 5s and 29 Top 10 finishes. After the announcement of where Kasey Kahne will be next year was settled this week, Martin no longer has to worry about being bombarded with questions about his future. He could be ready to head back to the front.
Head to head
Matt Kenseth vs. Denny Hamlin: Kenseth is one of the Roush drivers to have two wins at Michigan, along with nine Top 5s and 13 Top-10 finishes. Hamlin was the last winner here, having taken the June race. In addition to his win, he has three Top 5s and five Top-10 finishes. Despite being off his game this season, Kenseth should be part of the Roush revolution this weekend while Hamlin seems to have lost his early season magic. Look for Kenseth to prevail in this matchup.
Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon: It wasn’t too long ago that Johnson was a favorite everywhere, but lately has been mired back in the pack. He’s never won here and has an overall record of two Top 5s and seven Top-10 finishes. His teammate, Gordon, is still searching for his first win of the season. He has two wins with 18 Top 5s and 23 Top-10 finishes at MIS. There’s no reason to think that Johnson will have found the cure to what ails the team while Gordon will try to capitalize on his past success to finish ahead of him his weekend.
Practice Notes - Michigan
By Micah Roberts
Top 8 Driver Ratings following all Qualifying and Practice Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Greg Biffle 15/1 5th 6th 1st 5th
Two-time Michigan winner with a career 12.8 average finish; using Chicago chassis.
2. Kevin Harvick 15/1 3rd 8th 15th 4th
Using runner-up chassis from Fontana and Indy; no top-fives at Michigan since 2003.
3. Jimmie Johnson 4/1 6th 2nd 7th 1st
Using chassis that led 92 laps at Chicago; 0-17 all-time at Michigan, finished sixth in June.
4. Jeff Burton 15/1 1st 11th 4th 6th
Consistent fast average speeds in final practices; using chassis that finished eighth at Pocono.
5. Kurt Busch 8/1 11th 13th 5th 8th
Two-time Michigan, the last coming in 2007. Using a brand new chassis this week.
6. Carl Edwards 15/1 4th 24th 9th 11th
Two-time Michigan winner holds the all-time track record with a 6.6 average finish.
7. Tony Stewart 12/1 9th 4th 13th 10th
Won 2000 Michigan race and has a 12.1 average finish. Using fifth-place Michigan car from June.
8. Kasey Kahne 15/1 22nd 1st 3rd 13th
Won 2006 Michigan race; has a 15.1 average finish that includes six top-five finishes in 13 starts.
Note: The June 13 Michigan race was won by Denny Hamlin, followed by Kahne, Ku.Busch, Gordon and Stewart.
Great practice info if you are looking for help.