Checker Auto Parts 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Only two races to go in the Chase for the Championship and Jimmie Johnson still has a commanding lead over the rest of the field. However, last week he saw his lead shrink from 183 points down to 106 after a sluggish Texas race that saw Carl Edwards fume his way to victory with a 68 lap final tank of fuel.
Despite the 77 point drop in points, Johnson’s lead is pretty large. The largest lead that anyone has ever come back from after two races is Alan Kulwicki in 1992 who was behind 85 points. That year was the only time that anyone has really ever come back. For some reason in NASCAR there are rarely upsets with the Champions. The driver gets the bulk of the credit, but in reality the true champion is basically the driver with the best team that puts out the best most consistent cars. Jimmie Johnson for the third consecutive year, and likely should have been the fourth consecutive, is that driver again.
If Johnson were to finish seventh or better in each of the next two races, no one can touch him regardless of what they do. The way he has been running lately, the under seven would be a great proposition wager right now.
Johnson goes to Phoenix this week to race on a track where he has won the last two races run there. In five of the six mid-flat tracks run this season, Johnson has won twice and finished second in the other. Those tracks are New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix. Any driver doing well on one should do well on the other because the crew chiefs use the same balance and weighting system for all three, or at least the good ones do.
The driver that could show up to give everyone a surprise is Clint Bowyer. He won at Richmond in the spring and last season he won at New Hampshire. Next up on the flat mid-track list is Phoenix. Because Bowyer isn’t a household NASCAR name like Johnson, Busch, and Edwards, he’s likely to be found a very high price. He will be our selection this week to win.
Bowyer’s Childress racing teammates, Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick, are both equally adept at running well in Phoenix and the tracks like it. Each has two wins in Phoenix along with multiple wins in Richmond and New Hampshire. Both can be counted on as being Top 10 contenders this week. Harvick hasn’t been as good as in the past on these track, but Burton will be on the brink for a possible upset.
Kyle Busch won this race in the fall of 2005 a sort of a tribute to his brother who was childishly suspended by Jack Roush for some trouble he got in with the law. The only reason Roush sat him was because he announced he was going to Penske the following year. Anyways, this is the ideal track for Kyle to get back on track in the win column. Just to be certain he gets the right feel for the track, Kyle will be driving in all three major NASCAR series starting Friday with the trucks, then Saturday in Nationwide, and of course Sunday in the Cup race. What might an appropriate over-under be on Kyle for wins over the weekend? How about 1 win over -175? He’s gonna win the Nationwide race and just might get lucky in the Trucks.
Other drivers that consistently do well here include the DEI teammates of Martin Truex Jr and Mark Martin. Martin was so good at Phoenix in the spring that changed his originally scheduled program of taking this off and racing in Miami and flip-flopped the dates. This will be Martin’s last race this season before he jumps I a full time ride for Hendrick Motorsports next season.
We’re still waiting for two of NASCAR’s best to get a win this year so they don’t get shut out. Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon have both failed to get a win despite running well enough to make the Chase. Gordon has gone 14 straight seasons with at least two wins, let alone just one. Each ahs a great career average finish at Phoenix and both have one win each there.
Top 5 Finish prediction:
1: #07 Clint Bowyer (18/1)
2: #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
3: #17 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
4: #8 Mark Martin (25/1)
5: #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
Driver to win the Checker Auto Parts 500
Jimmie Johnson +400
Carl Edwards +550
Danny Hamlin +800
Kyle Busch +800
Tony Stewart +1200
Greg Biffle +1200
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
Jeff Gordon +1500
Kevin Harvick +1500
Jeff Burton +1500
Matt Kenseth +1800
Clint Bowyer +1800
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Mark Martin +2000
Kurt Busch +3000
Kasey Kahne +3000
David Ragan +4000
Brian Vickers +4000
Ryan Newman +4000
Field +2500
TheGreek
Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 PreQ
Well things did not go very well for Jimmie Johnson at Texas last weekend. The #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet struggled all day and still managed to come home with a 15th place finish. It wasn’t what we, or many, expected and the championship race did tighten up some. Still, Carl Edwards is still over 100 points back in 2nd position with just two races remaining. Johnson now heads into Phoenix International Raceway where has he been dominant in his career especially in the last few seasons. In 10 career starts at Phoenix Johnson is averaging a 6th place finish. He has been even better recently averaging a 2nd place finish in the last four starts including back-to-back wins. Johnson doesn’t necessarily need to get to victory lane and may be cautious to ensure a solid finish but he will more than likely be among the front runners at the end of the day in the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.
Sitting just behind Johnson on the PreQ forecast is teammate Jeff Gordon. Gordon salvaged an even better finish than Johnson last weekend although he did not have a great car either. Gordon was able to stretch his fuel mileage to record a 2nd place finish which has been his best finish during the Chase for the Championship. He moved to 5th position in the point standings and could make another move up the charts with a good run at Phoenix where he has run well in his career. Gordon has finished in the top 15 in each of his last 14 starts including a win last season. The Hendrick Motorsports duo has been running well and that will continue out in the desert.
Mark Martin has not run as well as expected the last few weeks with a 22nd place finish at Atlanta and a 12th place finish at Texas. He will be running his final race in the #8 DEI Chevrolet this weekend before making the move to Hendrick Motorsports for the 2009 and would love nothing more than to finish his tenure at DEI with a trip to victory lane. Martin was strong at Phoenix earlier this season leading late in the race before stopping for a quick gas and go. The eventual race winner, Jimmie Johnson, did not stop relegating martin do a disappointing 5th place finish. He should be strong once again this weekend where he is averaging a 9th place finish in his last 13 starts at the track. Martin could be a surprise winner during the Chase.
Casey Mears has been running very well as he winds his career down in the Hendrick Motorsports #% Kellogg’s Chevrolet. Mears will be replaced by the aforementioned Martin next season but he is showing why Hendrick gave him a chance as he has posted sic top 15 finishes in his last seven starts. Mears, however, has not had the best of luck at Phoenix in his career averaging a 22nd place finish in 9 career starts. Mears has run better at the track in the last couple of races but has yet to post a top 10 finish at the track. He could easily be a top 20 contender but anything more than that would be a surprise.
One driver that has had very little luck as of late has been Juan Pablo Montoya. Last weekend Montoya was blatantly taken out by David Gilliland resulting in a 43rd place finish for Montoya and Gilliland being parked for aggressive driving by NASCAR for the remainder of the race. Montoya has failed to finish five of the last seven races recoding a DNF in all five of those races. He has struggled at Phoenix in his career averaging a 22nd place finish in three career starts. Montoya has just as much driving ability on the track as anyone in the series. He is still learning how to play nicely with others however which has caused some of the on-the-track incidents.
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Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Race No. 9: Phoenix International Raceway
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – Carl Edwards keeps chipping away at leader Jimmie Johnson’s point lead.
The deficit is now 106 points. An Edwards comeback with two races remaining would be the largest since the current points system was implemented in 1975.But it’s not far off, which should keep Edwards optimistic. In 1992, Alan Kulwicki overcame an 85-point deficit over Bill Elliott with two races remaining to win the championship.Edwards has beaten Johnson by 106 points in consecutive races five times this year.
One instance was over the two races at Lowe’s Motor Speedway and Dover (Race Nos. 12 and 13). Edwards beat Johnson by 111 points over those two races.What makes that particular two-race span intriguing is that it occurred at tracks with identical distances as Phoenix and Homestead. Dover and Phoenix are one mile in length (though Phoenix is much flatter). Homestead and LMS are 1.5 miles.Still, the remaining schedule sets up favorably for both Edwards and Johnson.At Homestead and Phoenix, Johnson has two wins, seven top fives, 13 top 10s and an average finish of 9.1 in 17 races. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, he has a Driver Rating of 108.1 and an Average Running Position of 8.9 at those two tracks.Edwards has no wins, five top fives, eight top 10s and an average finish of 12.3 in 12 races at the remaining tracks. Since 2005, he has a Driver Rating of 104.5 and an Average Running Position of 11.9.
Selected Driver Highlights – Phoenix International Raceway-specific
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Phoenix International Raceway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last seven races at Phoenix. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/Red Cross Ford)
• Two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 16.4
• Average Running Position of 14.5, 13th-best
• Driver Rating of 102.4, fifth-best
• Series-high 244 Fastest Laps Run
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.418 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,388 (63.6%) Laps in the Top 15, eighth-most
Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, 10 tops 10s
• Average finish of 11.1
• Average Running Position of 14.9, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.2, 15th-best
• Series-high 332 Green Flag Passes
• 1,378 (63.1%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
• 171 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.3, fourth-best
• 167 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.593 mph, second-fastest
• 1,613 (73.9%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
• 152 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• One win, eight top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 8.5
• Average Running Position of 8.8, third-best
• Driver Rating of 104.0, third-best
• 61 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.264 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,899 (87.0%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
• 119 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 13.7
• Average Running Position of 7.6, second-best
• Driver Rating of 106.7, second-best
• 130 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.436 mph, third-fastest
• 1,865 (85.4%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 144 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 6.0
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.5
• Series-high Driver Rating of 118.0
• 200 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 123.702 mph
• Series-high 2,070 (94.8%) Laps in the Top 15
• 173 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Mark Martin (No. 8 U.S. Army Chevrolet Ford)
• One win, nine top fives, 15 top 10s
• Average finish of 9.2
• Average Running Position of 11.9, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 96.1, seventh-best
• 118 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 1,252 (66.9%) Laps in the Top 15, tied for 11th-best percentage
Martin Truex Jr. (No. 1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet)
• Two top 10s
• Average finish of 13.8
• Average Running Position of 10.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 95.7, eighth-best
• 64 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.288 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,218 (78.1%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-highest percentage
• 105 Quality Passes (16.5 per race), ninth-best per race figure
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
• One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 9.8
• Average Running Position of 10.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 101.6, sixth-best
• 82 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.362 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,742 (79.8%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• 175 Quality Passes, third-most
At Phoenix International Raceway:
Hot Fact
Mark Martin has posted nine top-five finishes at Phoenix, more than any other driver. Martin has one victory and five second-place finishes in his 23 races and has just one DNF at Phoenix, that coming in his first race there.
Phoenix International Raceway Data
Race # 35 of 36 (11-9-08)
Track Size: 1 mile
• Banking/1 and 2: 11 degrees
• Banking/3 and 4: 9 degrees
• Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
• Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
• Frontstretch: 1,179 feet
• Backstretch: 1,551 feet
Driver Rating at Phoenix
Jimmie Johnson 118.0
Kevin Harvick 106.7
Jeff Gordon 104.0
Carl Edwards 103.3
Greg Biffle 102.4
Tony Stewart 101.6
Mark Martin 96.1
Martin Truex Jr. 95.7
Kurt Busch 95.4
Denny Hamlin 94.1
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (7 total) at Phoenix.
Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Carl Edwards (132.773 mph, 27.114 seconds)
2007 race winner: Jimmie Johnson, 102.989 mph, 4-21-07)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (135.854 mph, 26.499 seconds, 11-5-04)
Track race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph, 11-7-99)
Pit Window: Every 70-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase for the Cup
November 5, 2008
A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Phoenix International Raceway (in order of points):
DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson
CHASE POINTS: first, 6,366
CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: None.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 10
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: A chink in the armor? After taking a seemingly insurmountable lead in the points race, Johnson spent half of the race at Texas figuring out his car on the way to a 15th-place finish that left the door open just a touch for Carl Edwards.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I'm more frustrated in the fact we didn't do the job we needed to today than the fact that I lost points,'' Johnson said. ``I mean, if I lose five or 10, 20 points at a time to those guys because they win and I finish fourth or fifth, you know, I can handle that. But to go out there and not perform, get caught a lap down, stuck a lap down all day, that's the part I'm frustrated with.''
DRIVER: Carl Edwards
CHASE POINTS: second, -106
CAR: No. 99 Office Depot Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 8
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 4th (twice)
LAST WEEK: Turned his Ford Fusion into the first NASCAR Hybrid by somehow stretching 69 laps worth of gas out of his last pit stop. The gamble paid off as he picked up his second straight win to chop Johnson's lead nearly in half.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I didn't expect to be able to close that many points on Jimmie without him having some sort of catastrophic problem,'' Edwards said. ``I think that's a good shot in the arm for all of our guys, all the guys that have been working so hard at the shop and here at the racetrack, that we can go out and perform well enough to win this thing.''
DRIVER: Greg Biffle
CHASE POINTS: third, -143
CAR: No. 16 3M Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 9
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 2nd (twice)
LAST WEEK: Had arguably the second-best car on the track in Texas behind Edwards, but missed a chance to steal the win when he had to make a late pit stop for fuel and tires.
CHASE CHATTER: ``I can't quite figure out how my teammate can go eight laps more than I can either, so we'll have to go back and do our homework and see what he's got that we don't have underneath the hood I guess,'' Biffle said. ``We got a top-five here today and gained points on (Johnson).''
DRIVER: Jeff Burton
CHASE POINTS: fourth, -212
CAR: No. 31 Cingular Wireless Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: None
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 18
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: Looks like another late-season fade for Burton. While Edwards and Biffle were able to take a sizable chunk out of Johnson's lead, all Burton could manage was a 13th-place finish at Texas, just two spots ahead of Johnson.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Luckily, we were able to overcome our poor qualifying effort but we weren't able to find the right combination to help our car's handling,'' Burton said. ``It's disappointing because Texas has been a pretty good track for us, but we weren't able to master it today.''
DRIVER: Jeff Gordon
CHASE POINTS: fifth, -255
CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 19
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (fall 2007)
LAST WEEK: Came close to ending a pair of winless streaks at Texas. Took the pole at a track in which he's never won, quickly fell back but found a way to finish second by squeezing every last drop of fuel out of his green machine.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We've improved, there's no doubt about it,'' Gordon said. ``One of the reasons why we haven't had a win to this point in the season's because we really were off track at the beginning of the season. Unlike Jimmie and their team, it's taken us a little longer to get it turned around.''
DRIVER: Clint Bowyer
CHASE POINTS: sixth, -267
CAR: No. 07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 6
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 2nd
LAST WEEK: Moved up a spot in the standings with a fourth-place finish at Texas. Led early and ran in the top 10 almost all day but like most drivers not named Edwards or Gordon, had to pit late for tires and fuel that cost him an opportunity to win.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Those guys, (Edwards and Gordon) they had a little more guts than we did,'' Bowyer said. ``Nonetheless, it was still a good run for us. It's go time.''
DRIVER: Kevin Harvick
CHASE POINTS: seventh, -279
CAR: No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet
TEAM: Richard Childress Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 2.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 11
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: Lost two spots in the standings despite another top-10. Finished seventh in Texas after qualifying 23rd. Ran in the top five at one point but needed a splash-and-go to finish the race, costing him track position.
CHASE CHATTER: ``Unfortunately, a lot of the Chase contenders finished ahead of me and we fell to seventh in the points,'' Harvick said. ``I am looking forward to going to Phoenix and, hopefully, breaking this winless streak we have.''
DRIVER: Matt Kenseth
CHASE POINTS: eighth, -393
CAR: No. 17 DeWalt Tools Ford
TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 12
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (2002)
LAST WEEK: Struggled with an ill-handling car all day then pitted early toward the end in hopes of having enough time to sneak into contention. The gamble didn't quite pay off as he finished ninth.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It felt like we had a tire going down,'' Kenseth said. ``These cars are just so much different and days like today are really frustrating. There are two races to go, hopefully we'll be able to pull something together in the next two weeks and run better.''
DRIVER: Tony Stewart
CHASE POINTS: ninth, -404
CAR: No. 20 Home Depot Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 13
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (1999)
LAST WEEK: Finished 16th at Texas after being forced to start at the rear of the field when his primary car got banged up during Saturday's first practice session. His backup car was good but not great and he couldn't find the combination to crack the top 15.
CHASE CHATTER: ``It's always hard to go to a backup car and they worked really hard to get the car ready for today,'' Stewart said. ``We got just a little bit of practice with the car, so to finish like we did, given the circumstances, was pretty good.''
DRIVER: Kyle Busch
CHASE POINTS: 10th, -428
CAR: No. 18 M&Ms Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 7
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (spring 2005)
LAST WEEK: The regular-season champion appears to have gotten past his early Chase problems, finishing sixth at Texas. Has shown a newfound maturity in the way he's fought back after falling out of the Chase race so quickly. The finish was his 20th top-10 of the season.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We battled all day to get up there and then we got shuffled back,'' Busch said. ``It was the best we could do with the car we had.''
DRIVER: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
CHASE POINTS: 11th, -429
CAR: No. 88 AMP Energy-National Guard Chevrolet
TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 12
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 1st (twice)
LAST WEEK: Tried to make a go of it on fuel at the end, but ran out of gas with five laps remaining then stalled coming out of pit road and finished 20th.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We win as a team and lose as a team, and that's the way it goes sometimes,'' Earnhardt said. ``We took a gamble, didn't have enough fuel, but that's the way it goes. I think if we started conserving sooner it would have worked out.''
DRIVER: Denny Hamlin
CHASE POINTS: 12th, -431
CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota
TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing
POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1.
CAREER PHOENIX STARTS: 6
BEST PHOENIX FINISH: 3rd (three times)
LAST WEEK: Ended the day in Texas where he started, 17th. Blame it on a poor-handling car that wouldn't let him get any grip coming off the corner.
CHASE CHATTER: ``We tried everything and nothing fixed the problems,'' Hamlin said. ``We went 500-miles today - we started 17th and came home in the same spot - unreal. So, we're off to Phoenix where I hope we can rally one for the FedEx team before the season ends.''
Checker Auto Parts 500 HOT! Sheet
Although it probably feels weird as a lame duck driver, Casey Mears is ending his stint in the #5 car on a pretty good note. In the last seven weeks, he has posted six top 15s. As you can see on our chart below, he has a 10.67 average finish in the last three weeks. There were reports that surfaced that he would be replaced at Homestead, but they were false. He’s come a long way since the back-to-back DNFs that started the season. He was 11th here back in April, so he’s a safe start.
Even though the title looks like it may be out of reach, don’t tell Greg Biffle that. He has been hanging in there just waiting for some kind of slip up from the two drivers ahead of him in the standings. In the last four races, he has an average finish of about 8th. The #16 car has gained bonus points for leading at least one lap in five straight races, and seven of the last eight overall. He’s got an excellent track record at each of the last two stops, so we suggest that you have him on your roster.
Another pretty consistent driver lately has been Kevin Harvick. In 14 races since the debacle at the Brickyard that sent him home 37th, he has finished outside the top 10 only three times (Talladega – 20th, Charlotte – 13th, Atlanta – 13th). In the last three weeks, he has an average finish of 9th place. At Texas, he overcame a poor qualifying spot (23rd) and came in 7th. He’s a former back-to-back winner here, so get him if you can.
At the very bottom this week is Kasey Kahne. The former Chaser has been running on rocky ground for most of the second half of the season. As our chart shows, he has a 22.78 average finish in the last nine events. In that span, he only has three top 20s, and one of those was 19th at Richmond. He hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in the last three times to the desert, so stay away from him.
Also stay away from David Gilliland. Far away, or he might run in to you. This past week, he was reprimanded by NASCAR for his on-track actions, which just added to his woes. He has not finished on the lead lap in eight straight events, and 13 of the last 14. The #38 team has only two top 20s in that span (18th – Richmond, 19th – Dover). His average finish in his limited experience here is in the mid 20s. Don’t even think about putting him in your lineup.
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Johnson wins pole for Phoenix, Edwards starts 15th
Avondale, AZ (Sports Network) - Jimmie Johnson continued his winning ways at the Phoenix International Raceway by capturing the pole for Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. The No.48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver and two-time defending series champion turned in a fast lap at the one-mile track in 26.721 seconds (134.725 m.p.h.).
The pole victory was Johnson's sixth of the season and the 19th of his Sprint Cup career.
Johnson has won the last two races at Phoenix, and is looking to become the first driver to win three in a row there.
"I think track position here is important," Johnson said. "This is really a sprint race with 300 laps, and keeping track position is very important. We had a fast car, but lost some track position due to fuel strategy in the spring race, and had to take a chance on going the distance in fuel to get the race won. Hopefully we can keep the track position all night long this time."
Johnson currently holds a 106-point lead over Carl Edwards with two races remaining in the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship. Edwards qualified 15th.
Starting alongside Johnson will be Jamie McMurray, who posted the second fast time of 26.741 seconds.
"We unload good and we were good in race trim earlier," McMurray said. "The car drove really good, but I just fought the grip, and I can't believe how bad the sun was in turn one. I way over drove that corner."
McMurray finished a season-best third last weekend at Texas.
Kurt Busch (26.760) and David Reutimann (26.763) will start on the second row.
The remainder of the "Chase" field will start in the following order: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (fifth), Jeff Gordon (seventh), Denny Hamlin (eighth), Kyle Busch (14th), Kevin Harvick (19th), Jeff Burton (24th), Clint Bowyer (28th), Tony Stewart (29th), Greg Biffle (31st) and Matt Kenseth (34th).
Joe Nemechek was the only driver who did not qualify.
Last Sunday, Edwards became the first driver to score three Cup victories at Texas, and it also marked the fourth consecutive time the fall race winner at Atlanta also won the following week at Texas. Edwards began the streak in 2005, with Tony Stewart doing it in 2006 and Johnson accomplishing it last year.
An Edwards comeback is within the realm of possibility as he heads to Phoenix with a lot of momentum.
In 1992, Alan Kulwicki trailed leader Bill Elliott by 85 points with two races remaining, but Kulwicki's fourth-place finish compared to a 31st-place run for Elliott at Phoenix allowed Kulwicki to take a 10-point lead into the season- finale at Atlanta. He finished the year with the same point-margin over Elliott, making it one of the closest championship battles in the sport's history.
Edwards has yet to win at Phoenix but finished fourth twice. He finished 42nd there one year ago.
Meanwhile, Johnson could possibly clinch his record-tying third-consecutive Cup championship one race early, but doing so at Phoenix would be difficult.
Johnson would have to gain 90 points on Edwards and 52 on third-place Greg Biffle for a 196-point lead in order to clinch at Phoenix.
If Johnson heads to Homestead with a 162-point advantage, he would just simply need to start the season-finale to capture the championship.
Johnson will win the title if he finishes seventh or better in the last two races, regardless of any other driver's performance.
The green flag is scheduled to drop Sunday around 3:45 p.m. (et).
Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500: Flat In The Desert
By: Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: What's that I said last week about cookie-cutter races not paying off big, but paying off? Very predictably, Carl Edwards followed up his Atlanta win two weeks ago with a victory at the eminently similar track in Texas, giving us a win but only delivering on +350 odds. That's all right, we'll take it. For the week, that meant a 50% profit: we netted 0.25 units on 0.5 units wagered. For the season, we've profited 5.53 units on 38.5 units wagered, a return of 14.4%. We've also given you a winning week in 24 of 33 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won 1.5 units on three units wagered; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 19.73 units on 121 units wagered, a return of 16.3%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+900), 1/6th unit. Hamlin would've won here in the spring had Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer (+1800) not been able to make the checkers on fumes; Hamlin did have the fastest car by race's end. And that's not the first time that's happened to him at Phoenix. He drives really well at the flatter tracks in the Car of Tomorrow, and while the No. 11 team has been ice cold, I think Hamlin has one more good run in him, this week at the flat track in the desert.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. If I have to place a bet on one of the two title contenders at Phoenix International Raceway, I'm taking Johnson over Carl Edwards (+500). There's no question, Edwards has it in him to register a top 10 on Sunday, but I just don't like the Roush flat-track program enough to wager on him. Instead, I'll take J.J., who may play it an eensy bit safe Sunday, making sure he doesn't go a lap down early again (as he's done each of the past two weeks), but who is a true dominator at the flat tracks in the COT.
Take Jeff Gordon (+1500), 1/6th unit. How the mighty have fallen. I can't say I recall Gordon's odds being this long at any point in the past few years. The fact is, though, that he's got the second-best finishing average at the Phoenix track type over the past two years (since the COT has been in effect). He only finished 13th here back in April, which doesn't do much for me, but he finished second and fourth at Martinsville this year, plus had two other top-10 finishes at the flattish shorter track in Richmond. I'll give the oddsmakers this: it is relatively unlikely that Gordon gets it done Sunday. Still, at this price, I think it's worth the chance.
Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Two races separate Jimmie Johnson from his third consecutive Sprint Cup but before this happens he will have to stave off red hot Carl Edwards, winner of the last two Chase races, who shaved off 77 points of Johnson's 186 point lead at Texas last Sunday, as NASCAR heads west across I-10 for Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
Gamblers should note that not only is Johnson the defending race winner, but he won the spring race as well. If you invest in manufacturer outcomes bear in mind that Chevrolet has won nine out of the past 10 races at Phoenix. Trend jumpers should pay attention to the fact that only once in 24 races has the pole-sitter won at Avondale; No. 24, Jeff Gordon, in 2007.
Who will win the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds
Last weekend my pick to win the Dickies 500, Carl Edwards, gambled and managed to get 69 laps out of one tank of gas to best Jeff Gordon, and pull within 106 points of Chase leader Jimmie Johnson. Thanks to a tight car the No. 48 car found itself in 29th place and a lap back after 100 laps--this could have proved disastrous for Johnson, but since it was early enough in the race Johnson was able to make back to the lead lap and finish the race in 15th place; good enough to pick up 118 points to Edwards' 190 points.
Sunday's race is almost a must finish in the top-five for Johnson or he risks the chance of battling Edwards (or Biffle) at Homestead; a track Johnson has not fared well at in the past but where Edwards has done exceeding well. For Hendrick Motor Sports' Chad Knaus he'd rather see Johnson wrap-up his third Chase Cup on a track he has dominated than have to win (or lose) the Chase in Florida.
Granted Johnson did not have a great race in Texas, but I sort of expected that considering how large Johnson's lead was in the points standings combined with how well Edwards had raced in Atlanta. But now NASCAR is back to a one-mile track similar to New Hampshire - which Johnson almost won but didn't thanks to an incredible pass by Greg Biffle in the inaugural Chase race. Don't think Johnson hasn't forgotten that one!
Carl Edwards, meanwhile, is doing everything in his power to keep the Chase a snooze-fest for NASCAR fans. Edwards' has approached each race with a reckless win-or-go-home attitude and this has served him well as he has done just that-won. But I think he'll have a much harder time winning this weekend. Edwards has never won a Cup Series race at Phoenix and his three top-fives are belied by an average finish of 14.3 (including five top-10s).
After two emotional wins I see Edwards primed for a letdown on Sunday. Edwards' hope to win the Championship, other than winning at Phoenix, is to finish much higher up than Johnson this Sunday and then take it next week at Homestead. But that is a lot of "ifs". Especially when No. 99 is going against Johnson, who finds himself in a must win position. And over the past three years whenever Johnson has to win he does.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (4/1)
Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Solid Gold Picks
Long Odds Value Pick
There is something about the Old Man that just makes you want to root for him no matter which team he drives. Martin is always a class act and while he doesn't win a lot these days he still brings it every race and sometimes it's fun to back age and experience. Here is why I like Martin as a longs odds value pick this Sunday. Martin has more top-five finishes at Phoenix than any other active driver with nine and is one of four active drivers to post better than a 10th place average finish. Martin's 9.2 average finish is better than Tony Stewart (9.8) but significantly behind Johnson's (6.0) and Jeff Gordon's (8.5). Martin has historically run well at Phoenix and in 23 races he has found the checkered flag once and finished second five times. The only time that Martin earned a DNF was his first year at Phoenix. Besides, he ran really well here in the spring race starting fourth and finishing fifth and in last year's Checker he finished sixth after starting 21st on the grid. For these reasons and despite the fact he is not in the Chase I am backing the No. 8 car on Sunday as my long odds value pick.
Pick! Mark Martin, No. 8, (25/1)
Docsports.com
Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 PostQ
This could be the weekend in which Jimmie Johnson locks up his third consecutive championship title. He entered the week as the No. 1 driver on the PreQ forecast. He has held down that spot on the PostQ forecast and for the first time ever has a PostQ rating at 1.0. Johnson not only won the pole but was the No.1 driver on our Speed chart and is also the No. 1 driver in NASCAR’s Driver Rating category giving him a clean sweep in all four statistical categories we use to calculate the PostQ rankings. Johnson is the driver to beat and could head into the final weekend of the season with the championship assured. Look for the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet team to get it done this weekend in the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
There are only a few drivers that even have a chance of catching Johnson for the championship, and that is only if Johnson has some bad luck. One of those drivers is teammate Jeff Gordon 255 points back of Johnson. Gordon looks to have a strong car as well at Phoenix qualifying in the 7th position with ranking in the 5th spot on our Speed chart. Gordon is averaging a 7th place finish in his last 14 starts at Phoenix so you know he knows how to get around this uniquely configured track. It could be a battle of teammates to the checkered flag this Sunday afternoon.
Looking at a driver that is not in the Chase for the Championship that should be in for a good run is Kurt Busch. Busch does like this track but has struggled here a little bit as of late. He had posted four consecutive top 10 finishes including a win before missing the race due to being released from Roush Racing after an incident with the local police in the Phoenix area back in 2005. He has since had five starts at the track with just one top 10. Busch looks to be in old form however as he qualified in the 3rd position and ranked in the 2nd spot on our Speed chart. Busch is in need of a good day before the end of the season and it should come this weekend.
Matt Kenseth has virtually no chance to win the championship this season but could still make a move up the point standings. The way he has been running at Phoenix so far this weekend it doesn’t look like he will be able to do much damage however. He has recorded three straight top 10 finishes but that streak will likely come to an end this weekend as he has looked awful at Phoenix. He qualified well back in the pack in the 34th position and was just 23rd on our Speed chart. Kenseth has won at this track in his career but the last time out finished in the 38th position. We are not predicting that dire of a situation for the #17 DeWalt Ford but we do not think he will be in the top 15. Kenseth gets the “buyer beware” label for the race.
In what will likely be Kyle Petty’s final race for Petty Enterprises, and most likely his NASCAR career, it is unlikely that he will be in for a good day. Petty has struggled in the #45 Wells Fargo/Victory Junction Gang Dodge this season failing to record a top 20 start in any of his 14 starts. He has struggled at Phoenix in his career as well posting just two top 20s in his last 12 starts with an average finish of 29th place. He has again looked slow this weekend qualifying in the 35th position while ranking 36th on our Speed chart. Petty has been unable to carry to load for quite some time and it looks like he will meekly leave this NASCAR series.
profantasysports.com
I want to protest the shortened title of this thread. The race is the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 from Phoenix International Raceway.
Checker Auto Parts 500 leaves me wanting more
I want to protest the shortened title of this thread. The race is the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 from Phoenix International Raceway.
Checker Auto Parts 500 leaves me wanting more
I am wanting a winner in Nascar ;D
NASCAR moving to ESPN 2
I hate when this happens.
Surprise Surprise another race and another favorite wins again. 😛