Cheez-It 355 Betting News and Notes

Driver Tale of the Tape at Watkins Glen

A J Allmendinger (No. 47 Scott Products Toyota)

· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 9.0
· Average Running Position of 14.2, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.4, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.404 mph, seventh-fastest

Marcos Ambrose (No. 9 Stanley/ CTC Jumpstart Ford)

· Two wins, five top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 2.0
· Average Running Position of 9.1, second-best
· Driver Rating of 120.1, second-best
· 95 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 120.216 mph
· 342 Laps in the Top 15 (75.7%), 12th-most
· 134 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Denver Mattress Chevrolet)

· One top five, four top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 20.8
· Driver Rating of 90.7, ninth-best
· 47 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 317 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.514 mph, sixth-fastest
· 395 Laps in the Top 15 (54.6%), 10th-most
· 147 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

· One win, three top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.0
· Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 110.2, fourth-best
· 60 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.645 mph, fourth-fastest
· 527 Laps in the Top 15 (72.8%), third-most
· 159 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kelloggs/ CHEEZ-IT Ford)

· Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.4
· Average Running Position of 12.8, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
· 506 Laps in the Top 15 (69.9%), fourth-most
· 162 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

· Four wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.8
· Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.6, 13th-best
· 360 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· 158 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)

· One top five, four top 10s
· Average finish of 19.6
· Average Running Position of 14.6, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.6, 10th-best
· 410 Laps in the Top 15 (64.9%), ninth-most
· 151 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

· One win, two top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 13.1
· Average Running Position of 15.6, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 12th-best
· 329 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.025 mph, 12th-fastest
· 442 Laps in the Top 15 (61.0%), fifth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.2
· Average Running Position of 9.8, third-best
· Driver Rating of 102.0, fifth-best
· 27 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.623 mph, fifth-fastest
· 573 Laps in the Top 15 (79.1%), second-most
· 164 Quality Passes, third-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 8.0
· Average Running Position of 12.7, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.7, sixth-best
· 25 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 119.384 mph, eighth-fastest

Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)

· One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.0
· Average Running Position of 11.0, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 110.5, third-best
· 59 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 120.036 mph, third-fastest
· 431 Laps in the Top 15 (79.5%), sixth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Rush Truck Centers/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average finish of 7.9
· Series-best Average Running Position of 5.7
· Series-best Driver Rating of 120.4
· Series-high 106 Fastest Laps Run
· Average Green Flag Speed of 120.062 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 678 Laps in the Top 15 (93.6%)
· Series-high 195 Quality Passes

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 13.7
· Average Running Position of 13.1, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.2, 11th-best
· 431 Laps in the Top 15 (68.2%), sixth-most
· 162 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Cheez-It 355 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

With only five races remaining before the Chase for the Championship begins in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series, the drivers head to the northeast for the annual road course event at Watkins Glen International. A few drivers will have a major edge in their quest to be one of the final 12 drivers chasing for the championship simply because road course racing isn't universally popular throughout the garages.

We've already had one road course event this season at Sonoma Raceway in Northern California, won by Martin Truex, a driver that had never had a top-5 finish over his career there. Between the two road courses, Watkins Glen is a much easier course to drive on for those that typically struggle. Sonoma has elevation changes and is a much more technical course, while Watkins Glen 2.45-mile course has lonmger straightaways where the drivers can go full throttle.

The past two seasons, everyone has been chasing Marcos Ambrose at Watkins Glen. Prior to winning in 2011 and 2012, the Australian road course ace had finished no worse than third in his previous three starts. His average finish at Watkins Glen over five races has been an amazing 2.0. Yes, that's not a typo, 2.0. There isn't a driver on any track over that duration in the series that is better than what Ambrose does at Watkins Glen, which is why he is the overwhelming favorite to win again this week.

Ambrose is one of those drivers that use Watkins Glen to his advantage and gain a Chase spot. It's a real long shot, but still possible. He currently sits 22nd in points, seven points behind Jeff Burton for 20th, which is the deepest any wild card hopeful can be in to gain one of the two positions based on wins. If Ambrose can win here, which is a strong possibility, and he can find a way to steal a win in one of the final four races, he'll be in the drivers seat for a wild card spot.

Jeff Gordon is a four-time winner at Watkins Glen and has been the most dominant road course racer in NASCAR history when including his five Sonoma wins. Gordon, currently ninth in points, is racing for his Chase life right now. He's only three ponts ahead of Greg Biffle and eight up on Tony Stewart. The reason Gordon can't feel too comfortable yet is because he doesn't have any wins on the season. Should he fall to 11th and not have any wins, he'd be passed up in the Chase by drivers with wins like Martin Truex, Jr. or Ryan Newman.

The good news is that Gordon comes off a runner-up finish at Pocono last week and he also finished second at Sonoma in June. The bad news is that Watkins Glen hasn't been too nice to him over the years. Since winning for the fifth and final time at the Glen in 2001, Gordon has failed to finish in the top-5 there. That's a span of 11 races with his best finish being ninth in 2009.

Stewart is a five-time winner at the Glen, the last coming in 2009, but will miss this week and more because of breaking his leg on a dirt track race Monday night. With Stewart out of the mix, the favorites become even more favored to win.

One of the biggest performance discrepencies for a driver at sonoma to Watkins Glen has been Brad Keselowski. At Sonoma, he's got a 19.5 average finish in four starts, but at the Glen, he's finished second to Ambrose the last two seasons. Keselowski has to perform well this week if he's looking to have any chance at being eligible for the Chase and defending his championship he won last season. He's seven points behind Biffle for 10th-place, but doesn't have a win on the season.

Kurt Busch is doing the impossible by taking his single-car underfunded team to heights rarely seen inthis era of NASCAR. He hasn't won yet this season, but is sitting 13th in points, just 11 behind Biffle for 10th. He's got a 2010 Sonoma win to his credit, and finished third there in 2011 and fourth in June, but Watkins Glen has been another story, where his best finish was second in 2010. His past two seasons there have seen him finish 38th and 31st.

Other drivers that have shown well at the Glen include Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Juan Pablo Montoya and Truex Jr. Points leader Jimmie Johnson tied a career best of third last season, but is still searching for his first win on the track.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
2) #9 Marcos Ambrose (7/2)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (9/1)
4) #56 Martin Truex Jr.(15/1)
5) #42 Juan Pablo Montoya (8/1)

Driver Handicaps: Watkins Glen
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Sunday's Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International.

Who's HOT at Watkins Glen

Marcos Ambrose - Shooting for his third straight win on Sunday, Ambrose has five career triumphs at The Glen including his victories in the Nationwide Series. In five Cup starts at the track, he has an average finish of 2.0.

Brad Keselowski - Throw out his Sprint Cup debut at Watkins Glen and Keselowski is no slouch there. After finishing 20th in 2010, he has put together back-to-back runner-up efforts including chasing Ambrose to the checkered flag in last year's wild last-lap finish.

Kyle Busch - The Joe Gibbs Racing driver also came up short in last year's last-lap craziness but has a streak of seven straight top-10 efforts on the line Sunday. Busch has an average finish at The Glen of 9.0.

Jimmie Johnson - You might not consider Johnson one of the circuit's elite road racers, but don't overlook the five-time series champion. He was third last year and after last week's Pocono frustration, there will be a dangerous element of determination around the No. 48 team this weekend.

Kurt Busch - The upstart Furniture Row Racing team is on a roll thanks to the effort Busch is putting in behind the wheel. Momentum is on this team's side and even though Busch has only two career top 10's at The Glen, he does have a Nationwide Series win at the track.

Who's NOT

Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Road racing has never been his strong suit. He has only a 20.8 average finish in his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen. "Junior" hasn't finished better than 10th since 2005.

Paul Menard - Even though Menard has road racing experience and has done fairly well in the Nationwide Series, his Sprint Cup career at Watkins Glen is not great. The Richard Childress Racing driver has made nine starts with an average finish of 23.4.

Denny Hamlin - After last week's 43rd-place Pocono finish, things might not be much better for Hamlin this week based on past Watkins Glen performances. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has three straight finishes outside 30th including 34th in 2012.

Kasey Kahne - Kahne's win last week at Pocono thrust him into the top 10 of the Sprint Cup Series point standings, but he might have to work pretty hard to stay there after Sunday's run at The Glen. Kahne does not have a top-10 finish there to his credit in nine career Cup starts.

Ryan Newman - Newman's Chase hopes took a huge step forward with the injuries to his boss, Tony Stewart, who will be out indefinitely after suffering a broken leg earlier this week in a sprint car accident in Iowa. But Newman will need to step up his Watkins Glen game with only a 17.2 average finish over the last 10 starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Watkins Glen

Max Papis - The road racing ace will fill in for Stewart in the No. 14 Chevrolet. He recently tested the car at Road Atlanta.

Owen Kelley - Phoenix Racing handed the wheel to the Australian road racer, who ran very well in a Nationwide Series start at Road America back in June for Joe Gibbs Racing.

AJ Allmendinger - Speaking of Road America, the Nationwide Series race winner there in June will pilot the No. 47 JTG/Daugherty Racing Toyota at The Glen. Allmendinger has two top-10 finishes in four career Watkins Glen Cup starts.

Carl Edwards - Not too shabby on road courses, Edwards has a 9.4 average finish in his eight career Watkins Glen races.

Martin Truex Jr. - The Sonoma road-course winner has fallen on hard times of late. He does have four top-10 finishes in seven starts at The Glen.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kurt Busch
Pete Pistone: Juan Pablo Montoya
Dustin Long: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Jeff Gordon

Cheez-It 355 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- For 42 drivers starting in Sunday's Cheez-It 355 road race at Watkins Glen, they'll have a tough challenge in store for them. It's bad enough that they all come in with knowledge of how great Marcos Ambrose is on this course, but now they'll have the difficult task of trying to not only catch him, but also pass him as he starts from the pole.

Ambrose has made a complete mockery of the NASCAR Sprint Cup series during his five years of competing at Watkins Glen. In hasn't mattered what team he has driven for -- his skills on the course far exceed those of everyone else. He rarely makes a mistake entering and exiting turns, and he seems to go through them just a click faster than everyone else. He is like a machine out there, and it's a beautiful thing to watch.

Just how good is he? Well, in most cases, stats don't do a driver justice because of having a bad outing or two due to mechanical issues, wrecks or fuel mileage miscalculations that might have ruined a great performance. For Ambrose, his Watkins Glen stats tell the entire story: five starts with a 2.0 average finish. He's won the past two races here and has never finished worse than third.

It's hard to think about betting any other driver to win, but we have a few that could take advantage if Ambrose does happen to slip up somewhere or have a car that fails him.

The first driver to take notice of is this year's Sonoma road-course winner, Martin Truex Jr., at 20-to-1 odds. He was outstanding in Friday's first practice session with the fastest single lap, and he also was the only driver to run 10-consecutive laps during the rain-shortened session. Truex took a long time between wins over his career, but with one on the board this year already -- and all kinds of confidence -- he could get greedy and snag another one.

Kyle Busch gave Ambrose all he could handle in last season's Watkins Glen race, but he came up short while leading with two laps to go. He's tenacious on the roads and swept the 2008 season, which put him in a unique class with the best-of-the-best road racers in NASCAR history. He starts fifth Sunday and should move up quickly and take another shot at dueling with Ambrose.

Brad Keselowski was also in a duel with Ambrose on the final two laps and finished second for the second consecutive season behind Ambrose. He had a good pair of practices and offers decent value at 10-to-1 odds.