Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
This Saturday Night in Richmond, we got ourselves a good old fashioned Saturday Night Special.
For a few guys, they will be clawing their way to the front doing everything they can to make passes and get race themselves into NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship.
It’s the last race until the Chase starts with a few drivers very bunched pretty close together. It’s do or die time, the money race, and it’s the feature race just like at a local race track. It’ll have that old race track feel where driver’s dreams are on the line and the only way to make those dreams come true is race hard with reckless abandon.
It’s a shame it takes a one race shoot-out to bring out the very best, or worst, in the bubble drivers. But this is what makes this one race so great every year, because we all know what’s going to happen. This is the equivalent of football’s wild card; if a driver makes the final top 12 in points following Richmond, he’s still has to race himself to the top in what is essentially a ten week bracket culminating with the big game Miami on November 22.
Las Vegas’ very own Busch Brothers, Kyle and Kurt, are right in the mix of things coming into Richmond. Kurt Busch is essentially locked in sitting seventh in points and would need a crazy set of circumstances to not make it.
However, Kyle is the one that needs some help. He’s currently sitting 14th and 37 points out of the 12th and final spot. The good news for Busch is that he’s racing at Richmond, a track where he has had his most consistent performances among all tracks.
Kyle’s 6.1 average finish at Richmond is tops among all drivers. He won the spring race there in May and in nine career races he has seven Top-5 finishes. This is the driver that is going to make this year’s Race to the Chase finale the most exciting ever just because all the drama he brings with him.
Kyle Busch might be the most disliked, booed, and harassed driver on the circuit. For some reason his antics, showmanship, and success have rubbed racing fans across America the wrong way. He’s going into a Hornets nest in Richmond where they are famed for being the loudest, rudest, and most intoxicated crowd on tour.
Twice a year, these fans in the Capital of the Confederation pump themselves up all Saturday afternoon to get themselves in game condition for the race at night. It’s a party of all parties and Kyle Busch is public enemy number one, taking over that role a few years ago from Jeff Gordon.
The biggest feather in the cap for Kyle is that he has thrived so much in such a hostile environment. He has taken their heated energy towards him and fueled himself to a level of being totally unabashed by the surroundings.
His race this time around means more than it ever has. Not only does he have the pressure of trying to show the fans up again, but he’s got to win or come close in order to ensure he gets in.
It’ll be a tough task, but it‘ll definitely be worth the price of admission to watch what happens.
While all the hoopla surrounding Busch and his run to make the chase goes on, a few candidates are going to be also running as hard as possible to get that last win prior to the Chase which will elevate their position when the Chase starts.
Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Jimmie Johnson should all have terrific runs and race hard to get the bonus point for winning.
Stewart has finished second in three of the last four races, while Virginia native Hamlin has come close to winning, but has settled for three Top-3 runs in his seven starts.
Stewart had been the master of Richmond until Kyle Busch started with all his Top-5’s.
Stewart career average at Richmond in 21 starts is 10.1. He’s had three wins on the track, but none since 2002. Since 2002, Stewart has finished second four times, including this years race. Of all the drivers cemented in the Chase, Stewart seems like the most logical driver to let it all hang out late ad battle for the win.
Johnson has the distinction of winning this race last year and three of the last five.
However, in the two he didn’t win, he finished poorly at 30th and then 36th this year in May.
In all, Johnson has raced at Richmond 17 times, but has finished in the top-10 only four times, including those three wins which has made his average finish position look like an also ran at 18.7 a clip. He’s totaled five finishes of 30th or worse.
Chances are we’ll see the newer version of Johnson who has taken a liking to these type of tracks that include Phoenix and New Hampshire as well.
On that note, it’s a good idea for match-up bettors to take a look at the last races run at Phoenix and New Hampshire as well. When looking at New Hampshire, since it was rain shortened, just look at the lap leaders prior to the rain, or when Joey Logano took the lead by not pitting.
That race was shaping up similar to the way Richmond and Phoenix did earlier in the year with Johnson, Martin, Stewart, and Kyle Busch running well. No reason to think this race will be much different as those tops teams are likely to bring the same chassis’ for this race.
The only difference for this race is a mindset of do or die for some and the freedom of going all out with no consequences for others.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
5) #5 Mark Martin (12/1)
Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Odds
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series hosts its final race prior to the Chase for the Championship on Saturday night with the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 from Richmond International Raceway.
A handful of drivers are still battling for a spot in the Chase for the Championship, so Saturday’s race will be very competitive. Jimmie Johnson, who is locked into the 10-race playoffs by sitting in third in the Sprint Cup standings, is the pre-race favorite to win on Saturday.
Johnson is a 5/1 favorite to win the race according to oddsmakers at the online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Other short odds to win are Kyle Busch (6/1), Tony Stewart (7/1), Denny Hamlin (7/1), and Mark Martin (7/1).
Johnson is the two-time defending champion of the race and is a three-time winner in 2009. Johnson has a spot in the playoffs is already set.
Busch sits 14th in the standings, 37 points behind Matt Kenseth for the final spot in NASCAR’s postseason. Busch needs a strong finish on Saturday in order to compete for the Sprint Cup Championship starting next weekend. Busch has four wins in 2009, but has been inconsistent, finishing outside the top 10 in six of his last eight races.
Stewart is also locked into the postseason, as he leads the Sprint Cup standings by 237 points over Jeff Gordon. Stewart has finished outside the top 10 in his last three races, his longest streak of the season. Stewart won at Richmond in 1999.
Hamlin is comfortably in fourth place in the Sprint Cup standings and has finished in the top 10 in his last five races.
Martin is 10th in the standings and not quite assured of a spot in the chase. Martin has four wins on the season and finished in the top five in his last two races.
The Chevy Rock & Roll 400 will take place Saturday, Sept. 12 from Richmond International Raceway at 7PM ET. For complete odds and track information on this year’s event, see below.
Odds to win the Chevy Rock & Roll 400
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Tony Stewart 7/1
Mark Martin 7/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Matt Kenseth 30/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
Martin Truex Jr 50/1
Joey Logano 60/1
David Reutimann 60/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
David Stremme 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Information
Race Date: Saturday, Sept. 12
Location: Richmond International Raceway, Richmond, Virginia.
Pre-Race: 7 PM ET
Green Flag: Approx. 7:43PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Radio Coverage: MRN
Track Type: Oval (400 laps)
Driver Highlights - Richmond
VegasInsider.com
All driver statistics that follow are from Richmond International Raceway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last nine races at Richmond. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
# Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.8
# Average Running Position of 15.5, 12th-best
# Driver Rating of 87.6, 13th-best
# 89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.188 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,243 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), 10th-most
# 158 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
# One win, two top fives, five top 10s
# Average finish of 18.7
# Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 94.8, fifth-best
# 237 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 408 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.379 mph, fifth-fastest
# 244 Quality Passes, third-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)
# One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 6.1
# Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
# Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
# 255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.675 mph, second-fastest
# 3,137 Laps in the Top 15 (86.9%), second-most
# 241 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
# Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
# Average finish of 11.9
# Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
# 208 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# 486 Green Flag Passes, third-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.269 mph, sixth-fastest
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
# Three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 9.6
# Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
# Series-best Driver Rating of 116.9
# 244 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.741 mph
# 2,754 Laps in the Top 15 (98.0%), fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
# One win, three top fives, nine top 10s
# Average finish of 16.7
# Average Running Position of 19.3, 21st-best
# Driver Rating of 80.8, 17th-best
# 68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
# 1,681 Laps in the Top 15 (46.6%), 15th-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg's/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
# One win, 16 top fives, 26 top 10s; three poles
# Average finish of 11.9
# Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
# Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
# 98 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.236 mph, eighth-fastest
# 2,320 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3%), eighth-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
# One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 11.7
# Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 94.6, sixth-best
# Average Green Flag Speed of 117.247 mph, seventh-fastest
# 3,082 Laps in the Top 15 (85.4%), third-most
# 215 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
# One top 10; two poles
# Average finish of 27.8
# Average Running Position of 25.1, 35th-best
# Driver Rating of 57.7, 36th-best
# 19 Fastest Laps Run, 25th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 116.414 mph, 39th-fastest
# 592 Laps in the Top 15 (18.4%), 26th-most
Odds and Ends - Richmond
VegasInsider.com
Richmond International Raceway Data
Race # 26 of 36 (9-12-09)
Track Size: .75 miles
# Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
# Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
# Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
# Frontstretch: 1,290 feet
# Backstretch: 860 feet
Driver Rating at Richmond
Denny Hamlin 116.9
Kevin Harvick 114.6
Kyle Busch 112.1
Tony Stewart 105.1
Kurt Busch 94.8
Ryan Newman 94.6
Mark Martin 93.6
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 92.9
Jeff Gordon 92.5
Clint Bowyer 92.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Richmond.
Qualifying/Race Data
2008 pole winner: None (inclement weather)
2008 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (92.680 mph, 9-7-08)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (129.983, 20.772 seconds, 5-14-04)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph, 9-6-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 85-95 laps, based on fuel mileage
Driver Handicaps: Richmond
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Richmond International Raceway for Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.
Who's HOT at Richmond
• Spring winner Kyle Busch leads all drivers with a 6.1 average finish.
• Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. lead all active full-time drivers with three wins each.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon has finished ninth or better in his last five starts.
• Denny Hamlin has led 562 laps and posted a 10.0 average finish with the new car.
• Mark Martin has finished in the top five in his last three starts.
• 2006 September winner, Kevin Harvick has the second-best average driver rating at 118.8.
Keep an Eye on at Richmond
• Ryan Newman has posted a 5.8 average finish on short tracks in 2009.
• Clint Bowyer has recorded an average finish of 10.4 in five races with the COT at Richmond.
• Jeff Burton has a 4.5 average finish in his last two starts at Richmond.
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Rachael West: Tony Stewart
Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Richmond unless noted)
1. Tony Stewart: Three-time winner; Last win came in the 2002 spring race; Has finished eighth or better in last five starts; Finished second in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing.
2. Jeff Gordon: Two-time winner; Finished in the top 10 in last five starts; Has 21 top 10s in 33 starts; Led 96 of his 1,161 career laps in May; Will race the same car (chassis No. 524) that led 147 laps and finished fourth at Martinsville.
3. Jimmie Johnson: Three-time winner; Last win came in this event in 2008; Finished 36th in May to give him an overall average of 18.7 in 15 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 461) that raced at RIR this past spring.
4. Denny Hamlin: Three top-five finishes in seven starts; Best finish (second) in track debut in 2006; Has led laps in every start for a total of 600; Led a race high 381 laps in spring of 2008 but finished 24th; Average finish is 9.6; Has won two pole positions (2008 and 2006).
5. Carl Edwards: Three top 10s in 10 starts; Average finish of 19.0; Best finish of sixth in track debut in 2004; Has only led laps in one race (15 in this race in 2007); Driving a modified chassis RK-587 that was last run at Martinsville in March and finished 26th; Needs to finish 24th or better to make the Chase.
6. Kasey Kahne: Site of first career victory in spring of 2005; Started from the pole and led 242 laps in that race; Five top 10s with an average finish of 18.5 in 11 starts; Finished 29th in the spring; Has a spot in the Chase if he finishes 21st or better.
7. Kurt Busch: Three top 10s in seven starts with Penske Racing; Lone win came with Roush Racing in this event in 2005; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 621) in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.
8. Juan Pablo Montoya: Best finish of 10th in spring race; Average finish of 27.8 in five Cup starts; Needs to finish 18th or better to make the Chase; Driving same car (chassis No. 817) from spring race.
9. Ryan Newman: One victory, five top fives and nine top 10s in 15 starts; Finished fourth in spring race debut with Stewart-Haas Racing; Avg. finish of 5.75 in four short track races in 2009; Must finish 16th or better to make the Chase.
10. Mark Martin: Finished fifth in first start with Hendrick Motorsports in May; Finish was third consecutive top five; Scored one win (1990) and 22 top 10s with Roush Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 538) that won at Phoenix in April.
11. Greg Biffle: Five consecutive top-10 finishes from fall 2004 to fall 2006 are only top 10s; Average finish of 15.8 in 14 starts; 71 laps led in four races; 54 laps led from the pole in the spring of 2006; Racing a new car (chassis 576); Needs to finish 11th or better to make the Chase.
12. Matt Kenseth: Nine top-10 finishes in 18 starts; Led 192 laps in eight of his starts; Has finished outside the top 10 in his last three starts; Average finish 18.2 in five Chase cut off races at Richmond; Needs to finish second and lead at least one lap to clinch the Chase outright.
13. Brian Vickers: Won the pole in 2004 and 2009 spring races; Combined to lead 53 laps in those events; Finished 15th in the spring; Has posted an 25.8 average finish with Team Red Bull; Needs to gain 21 points on Matt Kenseth and stay ahead of Busch to clinch a Chase spot.
14. Kyle Busch: Won the 2009 spring Richmond race; Led 53 laps in the event; Has led 398 laps in nine starts; Seven top fives, including three runner-up results; Will drive the same car (chassis No. 249) that finished 23rd at Michigan; Needs to gain 17 points on Vickers and 37 points on Kenseth to make the Chase.
15. David Reutimann: Only top 10 in five starts came in fall race last year; Led 104 laps en route to ninth-place finish; Average finish is 20.2.
16. Clint Bowyer: Winner of the 2008 spring race; Win was last of three top 10s; Finished 18th in May; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 264) that finished ninth at Chicagoland.
17. Marcos Ambrose: Finished 11th in Sprint Cup track debut in May.
18. Jeff Burton: Has a 4.5 average finish in last two starts; 14 top 10s in 30 starts; Will drive the same car (chassis No. 255) that finished third in May.
19. Joey Logano: Finished 19th in Sprint Cup track debut in May; Will debut a new chassis (No. 252) in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.
20. Casey Mears: Finished ninth in track debut with Richard Childress Racing in May; Finish is only top 10 in 13 starts; Will be driving the same car (chassis No. 248) that finished 11th at New Hampshire in June.
21. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Has posted a 15.3 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Led 90 laps en route to a fourth-place finish in this event last year; Captured three wins and nine top 10s in previous 17 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; Will race the same car (chassis No. 539) that finished eighth at Martinsville in March.
22. Jamie McMurray: Worst non restrictor-plate track on the circuit based on 25.5 average finish; Scored third top 10 (seventh) in 13 starts in May; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 626) that finished 11th at Michigan in June.
23. Kevin Harvick: Won this event in 2006; Finished 34th in May, breaking a eight race top 10 streak; Has posted an 12.8 average finish in 17 starts; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 285) in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.
24. Martin Truex Jr: Lone top 10 (fifth) came in the 2008 spring race; Finished 22nd in May: 23.9 overall average finish in seven starts; Chassis No. 51 will make its 2009 debut in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.
25. AJ Allmendinger: Finished 21st in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports; Finish is best in five starts.
26. Elliott Sadler: Has posted an average finish of 25.3 in six starts with Richard Petty Motorsports/Gillett Evernham; Lone top 10 in 21 starts came with Yates Racing in 2005.
27. Sam Hornish Jr: Finished sixth in May; Finish was first top 10 in three starts; Has a 22.3 average finish.
28. Reed Sorenson: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts; Finished 20th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in May.
29. David Ragan: Posted a best finish of third in this race in 2007; Only top-10 finish in five starts; Will drive the same car (chassis RK-584) that finished 23rd in spring at RIR; Making his 100th career Cup start.
30. Bobby Labonte: Finished 31st in track debut with Hall of Fame Racing; Will return to the team after driving for TRG at Atlanta; Four top fives and 10 top 10s came with Joe Gibbs Racing.
NASCAR ready for Richmond
By Brobury Sports
NASCAR’s regular season concludes Saturday night at Richmond International Speedway.
The 12 drivers for the Chase for the Cup will be decided after this race. There are plenty of racers on the proverbial ‘bubble’, and they’ll be leaving everything out on the track.
Only four drivers have clinched already (Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin) and it looks like 10 drivers will be fighting for eight spots. Here are the current standings and point totals.
5th) Carl Edwards, 3,16
6th) Kasey Kahne, 3,153
7th) Kurt Busch, 3,152
8th) Juan Montoya, 3,145
9th), Ryan Newman 3,138
10th) Mark Martin, 3,126
11th) Greg Biffle 3,125
12th) Matt Kenseth, 3,077
13th) Brian Vickers 3,057
14th) Kyle Busch 3,040
Here’s a look at the favorites for Saturday night’s Chevy Rock and Roll 400, broadcast on ABC at 7:30 pm EST.
Jimmie Johnson (+500)
Johnson has clinched a spot in the Cup, and he’s the favorite Saturday with three wins in the last five races here. However, those were Johnson’s only three wins in 15 Richmond starts and he only has four Top 5’s and four Top 10’s overall here.
Kyle Busch (+600)
Busch is at the right track as he desperately tries to move from 14th place into the Top 12. Busch has a one win, three seconds, two fourths and a fifth in nine Richmond starts. The win was this spring and his 6.1 average finish leads all active drivers.
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Hamlin has had a terrific season so far and he’d love to top it off with his first Sprint Cup win at his home course. He has led the most laps at three of the last five Richmond races without getting into the winners’ circle.
Mark Martin (+700)
Martin finished fifth, third and fifth in his last three Richmond races. He has one win, 16 Top 5’s and 26 Top 10’s overall here. The win came way back in 1990. His average finish is 11.9 and that’s excellent as he tries to stay within the Top 12.
Tony Stewart (+700)
Stewart has three wins, nine Top 5’s and 15 Top 10’s in 21 Richmond races. He finished second here in the spring and also had a second place finish in 2007 and 2008. Stewart is a good value to bump it up one spot this time around.
Jeff Gordon (+800)
Gordon has two wins, 12 Top 5’s and 21 Top 10’s in 33 Atlanta starts. The two victories came in 1996 and 2000. Gordon has clinched a spot in the Chase, but he still wants to win to add to his ‘bonus points’ which carry over.
More of The Field
Carl Edwards (+1500)
Kurt Busch (+1500)
Clint Bowyer (+2000)
Greg Biffle (+2000)
Kasey Kahne (+2000)
Kevin Harvick (+2000)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+2500) – Three Richmond Wins
Ryan Newman (+2500)
Jeff Burton (+3000)
Juan Pablo Montoya (+3000)
Matt Kenseth (+3000)
Brian Vickers (+4000)
Practice Notes - Richmond
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Juan Pablo Montoya was the fastest in Friday’s final practice session for Saturday Night’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond. Montoya reeled out the quickest speed of 124.412 mph near the end of the session while in qualifying trim.
Prior to the changes set up for qualifying, Montoya still had solid times in the few laps he ran. During the first session, Montoya 13th quickest while running 47 laps in race trim.
All Montoya has to do is finish 18th or better Saturday and he’ll make his goal come to fruition by qualifying for the Chase to the Championship. If looking at his career average finish at Richmond of 27th, it may seem a bit dicey. However, he’s brought the same chassis he raced to a Richmond career best of 10th in May.
Richmond’s weekend schedule of events is similar to what Atlanta did last week with two practice sessions followed by qualifying all in one day. Because most drivers used the final session for the qualifying set-up, it can be treated like a normal race schedule first practice.
The most telling practice this week in regards to how they may run in race conditions was the first practice. There a few exceptions such as drivers that ran more than 30 laps during happy hour like Kasey Kahne, Denny Hamlin, and Tony Stewart.
In the first practice almost everyone was in race trim and ran several laps. The fastest or those drivers was Greg Biffle followed by Kyle Busch and Clint Bowyer.
Biffle brought a brand new chassis for this week and hopes to clinch a position in the Chase. He could take matters into his own hands by finishing 11th or better and make it regardless of what anyone else does.
Kyle Busch needs a lot more help, but has to feel confident coming to a track where he has the best average finish of anyone (6th) and where he claimed one of his four wins this season. Busch brought a chassis that finished 23rd at Michigan, kind of a perplexing move since he won in the spring at Richmond. Why not bring that car?
However, the last time they did something that appeared awkward like that and not bringing the winning chassis from the Spring, he won at Bristol a few weeks ago. He needs to gain 17 points on Vickers and 37 on Kenseth to make the Chase. It should be fun watching him try.
Clint Bowyer had the third best average times in the first practice among drivers that ran at least 35 laps. Bowyer’s may be a bit more impressive than first and second best times of Kevin Harvick and Mark just because he ran many more laps than they did with 62.
Bowyer won the spring Bristol race last year thanks to some hard racing in front of him while he was running third. In all, Bowyer has been brilliant at Richmond with an average finish of 10th. Bowyer brought his Chicagoland chassis that he finished ninth with.
Virginia native Denny Hamlin was as good as ever in both practices running a total of 109 laps between the two sessions. In the first practice he had the fifth best time then he ran a ton of laps in the final practice with top speeds and then put his qualifying trim on and was sixth quickest overall.
Hamlin has had at least two instances where he probably should have won on his home track, but has still had quality runs in just about every one of his seven starts. Only Kyle Busch has a better Richmond average finish than Hamlin’s at 9.6. Look for Hamlin to let it all hang out and go for the win to better his position in the Chase, but more importantly to him, get that elusive Richmond win.
Tony Stewart was the King of Richmond when he first arrived, winning as a rookie and then two other times giving him three wins in his first seven starts at the track. Since then, he hasn’t won any, but he has run very well getting second place in three of his last four races there.
Stewart ran the second most laps (76) in the first practice and was 12th quickest. During happy hour, Stewart ran 47 more laps and had the 11th best time while in qualifying trim. Stewart will be in the same race mode as Hamlin looking to move up the Chase ladder for start position by getting a win.
Jimmie Johnson has been hit or miss at Richmond. Despite winning there in three of the last five races, he has only one other top-10 finish there in his 15 career starts. Four top-10’s for Jimmie Johnson at any track would be considered struggling, as would his 18th average finish position.
Fortunately for Johnson, he looks to be trending upward at Richmond even though he finished 36th there in the spring. Based on what he’s done on the similar set-ups required at Phoenix and New Hampshire since the COT was introduced, not many are better.
Johnson was second fastest in happy hour while in qualifying trim and 11th best in the first practice while running the most laps (79). Johnson brought the same chassis that he ran with at Richmond in the spring.
Brian Vickers needs to gain 21 points on Kenseth to get the final Chase position while attempting to hold off Busch. Tough task, especially when considering his average finish position of 27th throughout his career on the track. The good news for Vickers is that he had a solid 15th place finish in the spring, his best run there since he was a rookie with and 8th.
The bad news for Vickers, other than Busch, is that both his practice sessions went poorly in race trim and qualifying trim. It’s quite unusual for Vickers to struggle in qualifying trim, but he was only able to mange the 21st quickest lap in happy hour. In the first session, he was only 36th quickest running 69 laps.
Fortunately, the Red Bull team does have the luxury to tinker some more in the garage prior to the race, but they won’t be able to test it until the race.
Mike Bliss had two good practice sessions in the No. 71 despite running limited laps. Bliss only gets brought up just because of the fact that the car he’s driving this week was bought from the Richard Childress stable of cars. Richmond has been one of the better tracks for Childress in both the old car, and the COT.
The regular driver of the No. 71, David Gilliland, is filling in for Robby Gordon in the No. 7 while Gordon takes the NASCAR race weekend off so he can participate in the off-road event in Baja. ?
First Richmond Practice - Top 5 Speeds:
1. Joe Nememchek 122.867 mph - AVG 12 laps @ 120.325
2. Greg Biffle 122.594 mph - AVG 60 laps @ 117.378
3. Kyle Busch 122.482 mph - AVG 48 laps @ 118.464
4. Clint Bowyer 122.410 mph - AVG 62 laps @ 118.533
5. Denny Hamlin 122.288 mph - AVG 53 laps @ 118.197
Best Average Speed among drivers running at least 35 laps: Kevin Harvick 39 Laps @ 118.699
Most laps run: 79 each by Ryan Newman (10th) and Jimmie Johnson (11th)
Final Richmond Practice (Happy Hour) - Top 5 Speeds:
1. Juan Pablo Montoya 124.412 mph - AVG 12 laps @ 121.414
2. Jimmie Johnson 124.390 mph - AVG 14 laps @ 121.301
3. Mark Martin 124.218 mph - AVG 11 laps @ 122.013
4. Jeff Gordon 124.836 mph - AVG 33 laps @ 117.536
5. Kasey Kahne 123.836 mph - AVG 58 laps @ 117.536
Best Average Speed among drivers running at least 30 laps: David Reutimann 34 Laps @ 119.119
Most laps run: 64 by Jeff Burton (22nd fastest)
Top 10 Rated drivers for Richmond based on First Practice session, some of Happy Hour, current state of team, and a mix of the three 2009 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond.
1) Denny Hamlin
2) Tony Stewart
3) Clint Bowyer
4) Jimmie Johnson
5) Kyle Busch
6) Greg Biffle
7) Ryan Newman
8) Mark Martin
9) Jeff Gordon
10) Kevin Harvick
Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
Kyle Busch has “One Last Race to Make the Chase” and the make up the 37 points that separates Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 18 car from the 12th and final spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup as NSCS visits “America’s Premier Short-Track” at Richmond International Speedway Saturday night at 7 p.m.
Gamblers should be aware that Carl Edwards is currently nursing a broken foot and that definitely affected his driving last week. Edwards has finished out of the Top 10 in his last two races and Richmond is not a track that he has done well at. Edwards has never finished in the Top 5 and has only three Top-10 finishes in 10 starts at Richmond. Edwards is set at 15/1 to win and those odds are generous. A total of 122 points separate Edwards (fifth) from Kyle Busch (14th). I’d lay off the No. 99 car on Saturday night even though he is still fighting for a spot in the Chase.
Who will win the 2009 Rock & Roll 400?
Kasey Kahne (set at 18/1 to win this week) won his second race of the season last week at the Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway and cemented his position in the Chase by moving up five spots to sixth place overall in the standings. During the race it looked like there would be a shake-up in the standings, but by the end of the race 11 of the top 13 spots were won by drivers in the Chase. However, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch finished 36th, 37th, and 38th, respectively. And while Johnson is a lock to make the Chase, Johnson dropped to third, Busch dropped to seventh and Edwards remained in fifth.
If Kahne makes the Chase it will be the first time that Richard Petty Motorsports will field a car since the Chase began in 2004. Keep in mind though that while Kahne has won at Richmond in 2005 and has two Top-5s and five Top-10s in Virginia last year he hasn’t done well his last two starts, notching a 19th place last September and a 29th in May. While I think Kahne will do enough to make the Chase I don’t see him winning or coming in the top-three on Saturday night.
NSCS leaders Tony Stewart and Keff Gordon are both set at 8/1 while Jimmie Johnson is set at 6/1 to win the Rock & Roll 400. All three are locks to make the Chase so I don’t really see the ambition in any of these three drivers to go above and beyond to win, or really even come in the Top 3 in Virginia. I see theses Top 3 NSCS drivers doing just enough to finish -- perhaps in the Top 10 -- but that might even be a stretch. I am laying off these three public drivers for the last race before NASCAR’s playoffs and would advise everyone to do the same despite the juicy odds (that I believe have “sucker” written all over them).
Will he or won’t he make the Chase? That has been the question on NASCAR fans’ minds for the past month as Kyle Busch tumbled out of the Top 10. Two weeks ago I picked “Rowdy” to win the Sharpie 500 at Bristol and he did. It looked like Busch was going to break the Top 12 but with a fifth place finish at AMS last week combined with 11 Chase drivers finishing in the Top 13, Busch actually lost a spot and dropped to 14th place. The good news is that Busch is well within striking distance of the Chase. If Busch can come out and run a good race, lead a bunch of laps, and then finish first or second, he should make the Chase with 40 bonus points to boot.
Busch won at Richmond where he led the race three times for 53 laps in the spring race on his birthday (May 2), marking the 14th different track on which Kyle has won a Sprint Cup race. Keep in mind that “Rowdy” has historically done very well at Richmond with seven Top-5 finishes in nine starts. The reality is that Kyle will most likely need to win to make the Chase.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 16, (6/1)
Rock & Roll 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
In a sign of the times Dewalt has vacated the hood of Rousch Fenway Racing’s No. 17 car next year. Kenseth currently occupies the 12th and final spot in the Chase, but that could quickly change during the Rock & Roll 400. Kenseth has one win and nine Top-10 finishes in 19 starts at Richmond and has not necessarily contended for wins since the second race of the season at Fontana. Kenseth’s fortunes have gone downhill since. Last week at the Pep Boys Kenseth slammed into the wall and was down a lap early in the race. However, his pit-crew fixed the damage and Kenseth made it all the way into the Top 10 before finishing in 12th place; good enough to keep the hard charging Brian Vickers 20-points out in 12th place and Kyle Busch 37-points in 13th place behind him for the final spot in the Chase. Kenseth showed last weekend that he is a gamer with the ability to overcome a lot of setbacks. That same grit will serve him well this week in Virginia, which is why I like him as my Lucky Dog Long Odds pick.
Pick! Matt Kenseth, No. 17, (20/1)
Rock & Roll 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
If you like feuds (and I do) keep an eye on Kyle and Vickers during the race because there are sure to be some fireworks between both as they try to make the Chase. Red Bull Racing’s Vickers will return to the track where the feud started with Kyle Busch. Back in May Busch started it by pushing Vickers up the track and Vickers continued it by pushing back. Guess you could say Busch won round won as he finished the race first. Their feud hit the zenith in August in Michigan where after Vickers won he called Busch a “cry-baby” and said it must be tough for the younger Busch to live with such anger. Don’t think Busch has forgotten that. Vickers won the pole in the spring race but finished the race 15th on the grid. If Vickers makes the Chase it will because he finished in front of Busch, but I don’t necessarily see that happening as Vickers has only one Top-10 finish in 10 starts, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vickers dueling it out with Kyle Busch to the finish.
Pick! Brian Vickers, No. 83, (8/1)