Chicagoland 400 Betting News and Notes

Chicago - Driver Tale of the Tape

Chicagoland 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

When the green flag drops Sunday afternoon at Chicagoland Speedway, it begins the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Championship, NASCAR's version of the playoffs. And the format that has been tweaked over the past few seasons now actually gives the fans something similar to other sports with a major build up for the finale.

“It’s very comparable," said 2004 Sprint Cup champion Kurt Busch. "The way that the 2004 Chase was introduced that puts us into a 10-week stretch of accumulating the most points or doing the best in the postseason. Now, with our new structure where it’s three races, advance, three races, advance, it’s a bit tougher because you can have a part failure come up in one of those three and completely kill the whole season. Yet, you’ve got to be your best at the end. That is what this format is all about. You have a regular-season atmosphere; you have your playoff season, Chase atmosphere.”

Sunday's event will be the seventh race this season on a 1.5-mile layout and the first of five in the 10-race Chase. Do well on these type of tracks over the next 10 weeks and chances are great of hoisting the championship trophy in the Chase finale, or NASCAR's Super Bowl, at Homestead on November 20.

As a refresher, let's review how this playoff format is structure. There are 16 drivers competing and they are stacked with bonus points based on wins this season. Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski each won four races during the 26 regular season events and will be given 3-points for each. They're both 3-points ahead of Denny Hamlin, who won three times. Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray didn't win, so they start at the lowest total with no bonus points.

The 10-race Chase is broken down into four stages, the first three consisting of three races each with the four worst performers of each being eliminated from contention. If an eligible driver wins any of those three races, they immediately advance to the next stage no matter how points they accumulate. The drivers that don't win during a three-race stage have to advance to the next round by accumulating the most points.

The first round consists of races at Chicagoland, New Hampshire and Dover. The next round, featuring only 12 eligible drivers, has races at Charlotte, Kansas and a huge wild card event at Talladega as the turn race. Eight drivers will battle for the right to advance to the final four at Homestead with races at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix. Then it's one race for all the marbles at Homestead where the best finisher among the four win the title.

The driver coming in that is at peak performance in all facets with his own driving skills, high performing reliable engines and a great crew on pit stops is Denny Hamlin who is riding a career-best eight race streak of top-10 finishes that includes two wins. Last season he kicked off the Chase with a win at Chicagoland and he's got tracks in each of the stages where he'll be favored at like Talladega and Martinsville and he's also a two-time winner at Homestead.

The only negative going against Hamlin is that he's had only one top-five finish (Charlotte) between the six races on 1.5-mile tracks. It's kind of a surprise because all of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have fared well on those tracks led by Las Vegan Kyle Busch with wins at Texas and Kansas. Busch is also the defending Cup champion and feels the competition might be a little stiffer for him this season.

“I kind of feel about the same (as 2015), actually," Kyle Busch said. "I feel like we kind of are right even with where we were last year – kind of doing the same things – but there are other guys who are better than us, so we’re just going to have to figure out how to out-race them and out-finish them when we need to. A couple of our ‘teammates’ – the 78 (Martin Truex Jr.) especially – he’s just been stellar fast each and every week. He’s had some bad luck go his way and hasn’t been able to finish all the races where he should have. You can see that in the Chase, as well – something happening to you and taking you out of a round. That’s why you’ve got to be careful and try to again minimize your bad days and make it forward.”

Martin Truex Jr., who isn't 'officially' a Gibbs teammate, but uses their equipment, led 392 of 400 laps at Charlotte in late May in the most dominating performance in track history. The main concern about wagering on him to win is just as Kyle noted with the pit crew blowing so many winning opportunities. One or two errors happens to everyone, but when the errors happen more than a dozen times in 26 races, it's more than just a trend, it's the reality of who they truly are. Think is similar terms of a running-back in football who keeps fumbling the ball.

Brad Keselowski also has two wins on 1.5-mile tracks taking the checkers at Las Vegas and Kentucky, which was the last race (July 9) run on a cookie-cutter layout. Keselowski ran the gauntlet clean in 2012 with his first and only Cup title.

Kevin Harvick won his only Cup title in 2014 and did it by being the most consistent and he's got that going for him again this year, even though he's captured only two wins this year. He's still the favorite to win it all on the basis of his 13 top-five finishes, which are tops in the series, and his 18 top-10s are three more than any other driver. His 8.5 average finish is also best in the series.

Let's go with Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Harvick and Keselowski to make the final four at Homestead and then go with Hamlin to win his first career title at 10/1 odds.

Odds to win 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup

Kevin Harvick 5/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Martin Truex Jr. 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 10/1
Kyle Larson 10/1
Chase Elliott 25/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Tony Stewart 30/1
Austin Dillon 80/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Field (All Others) 500/1

As for this week's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicago, let's go with Keselowski to win. He's won two of the past four races there and has been strong on 1.5s this season. And of course, all the Gibbs car will be chasing him. Harvick is going to be right up there again -- he won the first two Cup races in Chicago history.

We can also expect Kyle Larson to be in the top-10 all race -- he's really coming on strong over the last month -- and both his career starts were top-10s (third in 2014, seventh last year).

Jimmie Johnson hasn't won since the fifth race of the season at Fontana, and he's never won at Chicago in 14 career starts -- runner-up three times. The six-time Cup Champ has a 9.3 average finish at Chicago.

Top-5 Chicago Finish Prediction

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
3) #19 Carl Edwards (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)

Chicagoland Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.

Who's HOT at Chicagoland

• Brad Keselowski has finished eighth or better in the last five races, including a wins in 2012 and 2014.
• Kyle Busch, the 2008 winner, has finished ninth or better in his last four starts and led 121 laps in 2015.
• Kevin Harvick, winner of the first two races in 2001 and 2002, has finished in the top five in two of his last three starts.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 577 laps led and has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his 14 starts.
• Matt Kenseth has one win and an average finish of 5.3 in three track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Tony Stewart leads all drivers with three wins.
• Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts.
• Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Chicagoland

• Martin Truex Jr. has one win and leads all drivers in laps led (785) in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Kyle Larson has finished in the top 10 in his two Chicago starts and has a 2.0 average finish in the last three races on the season.
• Carl Edwards (10.2), Austin Dillon (11.5) and Ryan Newman (12.3) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the top 10 in four of the six races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, including a fifth-place run at Texas Motor Speedway - a race that used the same tire combination that teams will run this weekend.
• Joey Logano has posted a 5.0 average finish in his last two Chicagoland starts.
• Harvick, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Newman, Regan Smith, Jamie McMurray, Johnson and Logano were the top eight, respectively, on the speed chart in testing last month at Chicagoland.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Chicagoland

Brad Keselowski has finished eighth or better in his last five starts at Chicagoland, including wins in 2012 and 2014. This season he has two wins in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Kyle Larson has finished seventh or better in his two starts at Chicagoland, including a third-place run in 2014. This season, Larson has yet to finish in the top 10 at a 1.5-mile track, but has been the hottest driver in the last three races on the season with one win and a 2.0 average finish.

Jimmie Johnson has yet to win in 14 starts at Chicagoland. His last of 10 top 10s at the track came in 2013 when he finish fifth after leading 40 laps. This season, Johnson has recorded a 10.0 average finish and one win in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Ryan Newman is coming off his first top 10 (fourth) in two Chicagoland starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman posted eighth top 10s in his previous 12 starts, including a win in 2003 with Team Penske. This weekend, Newman will return in the same car (chassis No. 557) that he was caught up in an accident with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway after running as high as eighth. He tested at Chicago last month.

Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 and combined to lead 234 laps in the last four races at Chicagoland. Busch, who won at Chicagoland in 2008, has two wins an average finish of 9.0 in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks this season. Busch tested at Chicago last month and was second fastest.

Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Chicagoland, including his last two starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This season, Busch leads all drivers with a 5.8 average finish in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Busch will debut a new car (chassis No. 1016) in the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400.

Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in his three Chicagoland starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in the 2013. In his previous 12 starts with Roush Fenway Racing, Kenseth finished in the top 10 four times.

Carl Edwards finished second last season in his first Chicagoland start with Joe Gibbs Racing. In his previous 10 starts with Roush Fenway Racing, Edwards finished in the top 10 three times. This season, Edwards is coming off a runner-up finish at a 1.5-mile track and has posted a 10.2 average finish overall in the six races at the intermediates. Edwards led 124 laps at Texas in April, a race that saw same tire combination that will used this weekend.

Tony Stewart leads all drivers with three wins at Chicagoland. Stewart's last victory came in 2011 when he went on to win the championship. This season, Stewart has only competed in three of the six races at 1.5-mile tracks and finished fifth in the last - Kentucky Speedway. This weekend, Stewart will debut a new chassis (No. 1023) in the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400.

Kasey Kahne scored his only top 10 (third) in four Chicagoland starts with Hendrick Motorsports in 2012. This season, Kahne has yet to lead a lap in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks and his two top 10s came early in the season.

Kevin Harvick finished 42nd last season at Chicagoland after contact from Jimmie Johnson caused a left-rear tire to go down, which results in him hitting the wall. Harvick led 79 laps and finished fifth in his first Chicagoland start with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. In his previous 13 starts, Harvick finished in the top 10 eight times, including wins in 2001 and 2002. Harvick, who holds the second-best average finish (6.0) in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2016, will debut a new car (chassis No. 1009) that was tested at Chicago last month where he was fastest.

Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Chicagoland with Team Penske. He led 32 laps from the pole with the team in 2013, but engine issues forced him out of the race. Logano's only other top 10 in seven overall starts came in 2012 with Joe Gibbs Racing. Crashes in the two of the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks this season have raised his finishing average to 17.2 in the six overall races at intermediates.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has posted a 14.3 average finish in three starts at Chicagoland. His best finish, and only top 10, came in his first track start in 2013. Stenhouse Jr's team was at the Chicago test last month, but Trevor Bayne drove the car.

Martin Truex Jr. led 39 laps and finished 13th last year at Chicagoland. Truex, who has two top 10s in 10 overall Chicago starts, has been dominant at 1.5-mile tracks this season, leading the most laps (785) and posting the fourth-best average finish in the six races at the intermediates. Truex led 141 laps at Texas in April, a race that saw same tire combination that will used this weekend.

Clint Bowyer has a 13.8 average finish in 10 starts at Chicagoland. This season with HScott Motorsports, Bowyer has yet to lead a lap or finish in the top 15 in the six races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner. The victory was his fourth top 10 in 10 Chicago starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin's only top 10 (fourth) at a 1.5-mile track this season came at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Paul Menard scored his lone top 10 (10th) in nine starts at Chicagoland back when he drove for Richard Petty Motorsports in 2010.

Greg Biffle has only one top 10 (fourth) in 13 Chicagoland starts with Roush Fenway Racing. Biffle is coming off a top 10 at a 1.5-mile track, finishing sixth at Kentucky Speedway.