Citizen Soldier 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Wave goodbye to four drivers this week.
We've got two races down in NASCAR's 10-race playoff format and at the conclusion of Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway we'll see four of the 16 Chase drivers eliminated. Two drivers, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, have automatically for next round of three races by virtue of winning the last two weeks at Chicago and New Hampshire.
The four drivers sitting 12 through 16 in the Chase standings that are in danger of being eliminated from championship contention and the four that most experts believed would be on the chopping block first. Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray are 5-points behind 12th-place Kyle Larson. Tony Stewart is 6-points behind and Chris Buescher, the Cinderella of the bunch, is 25-points back.
In the May 15 race at Dover, Buescher had the best finish among the four with 18th-place. McMurray was 21st, Dillon 33rd and followed by Stewart in 34th. This will be Stewart's last visit to Dover, a place he has won three times at over his career, the last time in 2013 which was his last win before winning at Sonoma in June.
Because Dover's 1-mile, high banked concrete oval is so unique and there is only one race of data to apply, to handicap every angle possible I like to refer to race run at Bristol, which is a half-mile shorter, but it is high-banked and concrete. I got the idea about a decade ago when I started seeing crew chiefs refer to it when discussing Dover and sometimes bring the exact same chassis to each track. If it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me, and there have been some strong correlations with results over the years.
It was just over a month ago that the series was at Bristol. Harvick would win the race, but some of the top finishers were surprises, such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finishing second, Dillon fourth with Buescher in fifth and McMurray in eighth. That's a wild group that no one could have possibly predicted, but it gives reason to believe that Larson might not be so safe with his five-point lead.
However, Larson has a 6.2 average finish in five Dover starts, including runner-up behind Matt Kenseth in May where he led 85 laps. Harvick, who won this race last year -- his first ever at Dover, finished 15th but led a race-high 117 laps. The May race featured 19 lead changes among 10 drivers and had 12 cautions which kept things competitive with lots of restarts.
Before we get into to will win Sunday, let's take a look at the updated Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook odds to win the Sprint Cup.
Odds to win 2016 Sprint Cup
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Joey Logano 10/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 6/1
Kyle Larson 12/1
Tony Stewart 80/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Austin Dillon 200/1
Field (all others) 5000/1
Now for Sunday's race. I'm going out on a limb, but not really based on past history. The driver I like looks to be in the worst run of his storied career, but he's the best all-time at Dover. Is current form the real selling point?
Jimmie Johnson has gone two races without winning at Dover, and that's big news because his longest winless stretch in the last 15 races there has been two races. He has a track-record 10 wins and 3,003 laps led in 29 Dover starts. The reason to like him this week despite not winning since Week 5 at Fontana is because the No. 48 showed lots of speed at Chicago's 1.5-mile layout, which can be somewhat applied to this race because it's so recent.
Look out for Martin Truex Jr. as well this week. He captured his first career win at Dover in 2007, a place the New Jersey native calls his home track. He's already qualified for the next round so he can just race with the purpose of winning to pad his starts. He leads the series with 1,407 laps led this season. One more win and he'll tie Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch with four for the series lead.
And last of all for the state of Delaware, which allows parlay wagers on sports, but not straight bets: Start letting the people attending the race bet the NASCAR races that visit there twice a season. The track is part of the hotel and casino there -- you can watch the race from your room -- where they also have a beautiful sports book, which William Hill U.S. manages for the state. Some day the silly loop hole against it happening will be closed.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
2) #42 Kyle Larson (10/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1)
Dover Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway.
Who's HOT at Dover
• Matt Kenseth has scored five top 10s in seven track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in May.
• Kyle Larson is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (10) and laps led (3,003).
• Defending race winner Kevin Harvick has combined to lead 810 laps in the last five races.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races.
• Brad Keselowski has finished sixth or better in five of the last eight races, including a win in this event in 2012.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Dover
• Jeff Gordon, a five-time Dover winner, is making his seventh start of the season behind the wheel of the No. 88 Chevrolet.
• Rookies Chase Elliott (3rd) and Ryan Blaney (8th) each finished in the top 10 in their first Dover Sprint Cup start in May.
• Carl Edwards posted a 6.0 average running position in May and was running second with 40 laps to go when contact took him out of the race.
• Joey Logano has only led three laps in 15 Dover starts, but has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last nine races.
• Kurt Busch finished fifth in May for his first top 10 in five Dover starts with Stewart-Haas Racing.
• Kasey Kahne has finished in the top 10 in his last three Dover starts and the last four races of the season.
• Kyle Busch, who finished second in this event last year, has finished in the top 10 in the last three races of the season.
• Denny Hamlin, who finished seventh in May, has combined to lead 133 laps in the last three Dover races.
• Jamie McMurray and Aric Almirola each have finished in the top 10 in two of the last three races at Dover.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Matt Kenseth
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Carl Edwards
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Dover
Chase Elliott finished third in his first Dover Sprint Cup start in May. He ranked second in that race among all drivers with 51 green flag passes. Elliott has finished in the top five in the three races (Texas, Dover and Chicagoland) this season that utilized this weekend's left-side tire code.
Kyle Larson is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races at Dover. Larson, who led 85 laps in May, has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races of the season.
Brad Keselowski led 49 laps and finished sixth in May at Dover. The finish marked his fifth top 10 in the last eight races, including a win in this event in 2012.
Martin Truex Jr. led 47 laps and finished ninth in May at Dover. The finish was his fourth top 10 in five starts with Furniture Row at the 1-mile track where he has a 7.8 average finish in the span.
Ryan Blaney finished eighth in his first Sprint Cup start at Dover in May.
Jeff Gordon returns behind the wheel of the No. 88 Chevrolet for the seventh time this season at Dover. Gordon is a five time Dover winner with his last coming in this event in 2014. The victory is part of a five top 10s in last seven starts.
Kevin Harvick dominated this event last year, leading 355 laps en route to the win. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, Harvick has led 810 laps and an average finish of 9.6 in five starts at Dover. He led 117 laps in May but was caught up in a multi-car accident on a restart on lap 354. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 846) that he last led 142 laps and finished second with at Auto Club Speedway.
Clint Bowyer finished 12th in May in his first Dover start with HScott Motorsports. The finish is one of four top-15 finishes this season with the team.
Kasey Kahne has finished sixth or better in his last three starts at Dover. Kahne also has finished in the top 10 in the last four races this season and has a 7.2 average finish in that span.
Joey Logano finished 22nd in May after getting caught up in a multi-car accident on a restart on lap 354. The finish snapped a streak of nine consecutive finishes of 11th or better, which includes two top fives. Logano's two laps led in May are the most he's led in one race in 15 Dover starts.
Matt Kenseth is coming off his third Dover win in 35 starts. The win was his fourth finish of seventh or better in five track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Denny Hamlin is coming off his seventh top 10, and first since the spring race in 2014, in 21 starts at Dover.
Jamie McMurray finished 21st in May and was caught up in the multi-car crash on a lap 354 restart. The finished snapped a streak of two consecutive top 10s at the track.
Paul Menard finished 11th in May to give him a 14.0 average finish in the last five races at Dover. Menard's best finish in 11 track starts with Richard Childress Racing is eighth in the 2015 May race.
Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 10 wins and 3,003 laps led at Dover. His last win came in the May 2015 race, but his last two respective finishes are 41st and 25th. Johnson, who led four laps in May, was the leading that race when he had a transmission issue on a lap 354 and it resulted in a multi-car crash.
Aric Almirola saw his streak of two consecutive fifth-place finishes at Dover come to an end in May when he was caught up in the multi-car crash on a lap 354 restart.
Carl Edwards has yet to finish in the top 10 in three Dover starts with Joe Gibbs Racing and has a 20.7 average finish in that span. Edwards was running second with 40 laps to go in May, but spun and hit the wall after contact from Kyle Larson. He recorded the third-best average running position (6.0) in that race even with the accident. Edwards' lone Dover win came in this event in 2007 with Roush Fenway Racing.
Kurt Busch finished fifth in May for his first top 10 in five Dover starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch won this event in 2011 with Team Penske.
Chris Buescher finished 18th in his first Sprint Cup start at Dover in May. It's one of six top-20 finishes this season.
Ryan Newman scored his last of 13 top 10s at Dover in this event in 2014, eighth. The finish is his only top 10 in five track starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman's three Dover wins came early in his career with Team Penske.