Coke Zero 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver Tale of the Tape at Daytona

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 BlueDEF Diesel Exhaust Fluid Toyota)

· Two top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 15.5
· Average Running Position of 15.9, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 86.6, seventh-best
· 68 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 3,123 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.593 mph, fourth-fastest
· 1,747 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 13th-most

Jeff Burton (No. 31 Kwikset Chevrolet)

· One win, nine top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.4
· Average Running Position of 15.9, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 84.9, ninth-best
· 68 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· Series-high 3,588 Green Flag Passes
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 188.739 mph
· 1,685 Laps in the Top 15 (54.8%), eighth-most
· 2,069 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Sealy Chevrolet)

· 10 top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 18.4
· Average Running Position of 16.7, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.0, sixth-best
· 64 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 3,026 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· 1,808 Laps in the Top 15 (58.8%), sixth-most
· 2,171 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)

· One win, five top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 18.9
· Series-best Average Running Position of 12.4
· Series-best Driver Rating of 97.0
· 75 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 3,173 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.625 mph, second-fastest
· Series-high 2,172 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6%)
· Series-high 2,334 Quality Passes

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet)

· Two wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.0
· Average Running Position of 14.6, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.3, fourth-best
· 79 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· 3,435 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.596 mph, third-fastest
· 1,958 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), second-most
· 2,297 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Subway Ford)

· Four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.5
· Driver Rating of 82.7, 12th-best
· 59 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
· 3,438 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.485 mph, 13th-fastest
· 1,647 Laps in the Top 15 (53.5%), ninth-most
· 2,230 Quality Passes, third-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Axalta Coating Systems Chevrolet)

· Six wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 16.1
· Average Running Position of 14.6, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, fifth-best
· 2,974 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· 1,804 Laps in the Top 15 (58.6%), seventh-most
· 1,913 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 20.5
· Average Running Position of 16.3, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.5, 10th-best
· 72 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.568 mph, sixth-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Folds of Honor Chevrolet)

· Two wins, five top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.5
· Driver Rating of 82.6, 13th-best
· Series-high 82 Fastest Laps Run
· 3,081 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.583 mph, fifth-fastest

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

· Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 18.2
· Average Running Position of 14.5, third-best
· Driver Rating of 85.3, eighth-best
· 1,919 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4%), fourth-most
· 2,040 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Home Depot Husky Toyota)

· Two wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.0
· Average Running Position of 14.1, second-best
· Driver Rating of 93.2, second-best
· 73 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 1,952 Laps in the Top 15 (63.5%), third-most
· 1,983 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average finish of 20.5
· Average Running Position of 17.3, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.8, 11th-best
· 62 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· 3,191 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 188.488 mph, 12th-fastest
· 1,561 Laps in the Top 15 (50.7%), 11th-most
· 1,780 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Brass Pro Shops/Ducks Unlimited Chevrolet)

· Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 17.0
· Average Running Position of 15.3, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, third-best
· 68 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 1,836 Laps in the Top 15 (59.7%), fifth-most

Coke Zero 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

If there was proof needed that restrictor plate races in the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup season with the new Gen-6 was the biggest crap shoot ever in the sport, all you need to do is refer back to the results of the top finishers from the February 24 Daytona 500 and May 5 race at Talladega.

Sure, Jimmie Johnson ended up winning at Daytona, but finishing in the top-10 were drivers like Danica Patrick, Regan Smith, Michael McDowell and J.J. Yeley. At Talladega, not only did David Ragan win while driving the No. 34 Farm Rich Ford, but coming in second was David Gilliland in the Love's Travel Stops Ford.

Those aren't the typical names or sponsors we see on a weekly basis doing well, but it's the perfect example of how throwing darts at car numbers before the race is just as good as any handicapping method when dealing with either of the two restrictor-plate tracks. It's also why the sports books will have maybe only one driver at single-digit odds this week. Last week, Johnson was 4-to-1, this week, he'll be 12-to-1.

While the plate races themselves have appeared to be boring at times this season with not a lot passing, the results show otherwise. At Daytona, there were 28 lead changes among 14 drivers, and at Talladega, there were 30 lead changes between 17 drivers.

The one dominator between the two races was last weeks winner Matt Kenseth, who led race highs with 86 laps at Daytona and 142 laps at Talladega. To give an example of how dominating he was, the next closest lap leader at Daytona was Denny Hamlin with 33 laps. At Talladega, the gap is even greater with Johnson leading the second most at only 16.

Between the two races, as great as Kenseth was, his best finish between the two was seventh at Talladega, proving emphatically that the best car doesn't always win. He's sure to eventually win one of these. He was the best during Daytona speed weeks and was the best in both plate races, but Kenseth winning doesn't flow with the theme set where everyone has a chance.

To make the story feel somewhat closer to what we have seen this season, we need an underdog, a surprise winner, but also with someone that has shown an inkling for plate racing, in particular at Daytona. While both tracks use restrictor-plates, and both are big fast tracks, they race completely different.

The driver that pops up is Hamlin, who was leading the Daytona 500 with 28 laps to go, before settling for 14th. He'll have a car set-up similar to his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kenseth and he's also in the underdog role right now. I also like the fact that he's going all out for wins as he's sitting 25th in points -- needing to make the top-20 in order the have a chance at one of two wild card positions which are given out to those with the most wins. He's a 50-to-1 long shot to win the Sprint Cup Championship right now, but those odds will drop in half if he does win his first race of the season this week.

I grabbed the dice and rolled 11, so I'm cruising with Hamlin. It's just as good as any other method at picking a winner in plate races.

Top-5 Finish Predictions:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (20/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (18/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (12/1)

Driver Handicaps: Daytona
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com's Jeff Wackerlin brings you his weekly detailed analysis to help steer you toward Saturday night's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Daytona

• Defending race winner Tony Stewart has a total of four wins in this event.
• Matt Kenseth has one win and has led the most laps in the five races on the current track surface.
• Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished second in three of his last seven starts - fourth in the 2010 July race.
• Ryan Newman and Brad Keselowski are the only drivers to finish in the top 10 in the last two races.
• Kevin Harvick, winner of this event in 2010, has finished seventh or better in four of his last seven starts.
• Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with six wins and his last top 10 came in this event in 2011.
• Jeff Burton has finished in the top five in two of his last three starts.
• Jimmie Johnson won the first points-paying race at Daytona with the Gen-6 car.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Daytona

• Aric Almirola (11.5), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (12.5), Michael Waltrip (13.0) and Clint Bowyer (14.5) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among all drivers that have races in both restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.
• Along with Kenseth (228), Johnson (33), Gordon (32) and Keselowski (14), Denny Hamlin is the only other driver to lead more than 10 laps in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car with 33.
• David Ragan will be back in the same car he won with at Talladega Superspeedway in May.
• Paul Menard and Joey Logano lead all drivers in average finish (11.6) in the five races on the current Daytona track surface.
• Kyle Busch's only Daytona Sprint Cup points-paying win came in this event in 2008.
• Kurt Busch will be shooting for his third consecutive top 10 of the season when he makes his first Coke Zero 400 start in the No. 78 Furniture Row Chevrolet.
• Greg Biffle (80) and Martin Truex Jr. (42) each rank in the top five in laps led on the current Daytona track surface.
• Daytona is the site of Danica Patrick's only Sprint Cup pole and top-10 finish.
• Bobby Labonte, who will return in the No. 47 Toyota this weekend, finished 10th in this event last year. Also, AJ Allmendinger will be back in the No. 51 Chevrolet.

First Practice Report: AJ Allmendinger topped the first practice session with a lap of 200.218 mph. Clint Bowyer (200.214), Carl Edwards (199.831), Juan Pablo Montoya (199.707) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (199.344) rounded out the top five. Allmendinger also posted the best 10 consecutive lap average at 197.280 mph. He was followed by Greg Biffle (196.797), Matt Kenseth (196.751), Jeff Burton (196.581) and Tony Stewart (196.459). 1st Practice Speeds

MotorRacingNetwork.com Writer Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pete Pistone: Jeff Gordon
Dustin Long: Kurt Busch
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Daytona unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: 25.2 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; Win in this year's Daytona 500 was first finish of 19th or better in the last five races; 3.0 average finish and 33 laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 764) that he last led 16 laps and finished fifth with at Talladega Superspeedway.

Carl Edwards: 17.2 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; Has finished eighth or better in three of the last five races; 18.0 average finish and five laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 829) that he was involved in a practice crash for the Sprint Unlimited at Daytona.

Clint Bowyer: 20.8 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; 17.0 average finish in three starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; 14.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Kevin Harvick: Winner of the 2010 Coke Zero 400 and 2007 Daytona 500; Last top 10 in the July race came in 2011 in seventh; 41.0 average finish (accidents) in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 387) that he won the Sprint Unlimited at Daytona with.

Matt Kenseth: Led 86 laps in this year's Daytona 500 in first points-paying track start with Joe Gibbs Racing; Finished third or better, including a win in the 2012 Daytona 500, in previous three starts with Roush Fenway Racing; 15.4 average finish and most laps led (239) in the five races on the repaved track surface; 22.5 average finish and 228 laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car that he finished eighth with at Talladega Superspeedway.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Finished second in the last two Daytona 500s; Last top 10 in the July race came in 2010, in fourth; 12.4 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; 9.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 773) that he finished second with in the Daytona 500 and 17th with at Talladega Superspeedway in May.

Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2008 July race; Last of six top 10s (fifth) in 17 starts came in the 2011 July race; 17.6 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; 35.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car

Martin Truex Jr: Only top 10 (sixth) in 16 starts came in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing, the 2010 Daytona 500; 15.5 average finish and fifth in laps led (42) and five laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Greg Biffle: Coming off sixth top 10 in 21 starts; 16.6 average finish and third in laps led (80) in the five races on the repaved track surface; 21.0 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same chassis (No. 798) that he last finished sixth with in 2012 fall race at Talladega Superspeedway.

Joey Logano: Finished 19th in the 2013 Daytona - first point-paying track start with Penske Racing; Finished ninth or better in previous three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Tied for the best average finish (11.6) in the five races on the repaved track surface; 27.0 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 652) in the Coke Zero 400.

Kasey Kahne: Only top 10 in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports came in this event last year, in seventh; 39.0 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same chassis (No. 703) that tested at DIS in January and raced at Daytona International Speedway in July 2012.

Jeff Gordon: Last of six wins came in the 2005 Daytona 500; Last of 19 top 10s in 41 starts came in this event in 2011; 15.5 average finish and 32 laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Brad Keselowski: 17.6 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; 9.5 average finish and 14 laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 655) in the Coke Zero 400.

Kurt Busch: Finished 28th in this year's Daytona 500, his first points-paying track start with Furniture Row racing; 29.0 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Paul Menard: Tied for the best average finish (11.6) in the five races on the repaved track surface; 23.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 406) that he finished 26th with at Talladega Superspeedway.

Tony Stewart: Defending race winner; Win was fourth in the July race; 16.4 average finish in the five races on the repaved track surface; 34.0 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 762) that he finished 41st with in the Daytona 500 after getting caught up in an accident.

Aric Almirola: Coming off best finish in four starts, in 13th; 11.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 722) that he finished sixth with in the Sprint Unlimited.

Ryan Newman: Has finished fifth in his last two starts; Winner of the 2008 Daytona 500 with Penske Racing; 15.2 average finish and fourth in laps led (65) in the five races on the repaved track surface; 18.5 average finish and five laps led in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 606) that he finished fifth with in the Daytona 500.

Jamie McMurray: Has yet to finish in the top 10 since his 2010 Daytona 500 win; Won this event in 2007 with Roush Racing; 27.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Finished 12th in this year's Daytona 500; 12.5 average finish in the two restrictor-plate races with the Gen-6 car; Will pilot the same chassis (No. 781) that Greg Biffle led 35 laps en route to a 21st-place finish in last year's Coke Zero 400.

NASCAR tackles Daytona on Saturday night
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com

The NASCAR drivers will head south to Daytona Beach, FL on Saturday night for the Coke Zero 400 powered by Coca-Cola. Daytona International Speedway, completed in 1959, is a 2.5-mile, tri-oval track with huge bankings (31° turns, 18° tri-oval banking). The frontstrech measures 3,800 feet with the backstretch coming in at 3,000 feet. Tony Stewart is the defending champion of the Coke Zero 400, while Jimmie Johnson won the last race at this track, the Daytona 500 in February. This is one of two tracks that are restrictor plate races.

Drivers to Watch

Denny Hamlin (18/1) - Hamlin is beyond due to win at this track, leading at least four laps in nine of his past 12 Daytona starts, but failing to finish better than third. And after finishing in the top-8 in three of four races shortly after returning from a back injury, Hamlin has been slumping. In his past three starts, the No. 11 car has placed 30th, 23rd and 35th last week in Kentucky as the result of a crash. At 18-to-1 odds, Hamlin presents the best value on the board and is our pick to finally earn his first win at this superspeedway.

Tony Stewart (15/1) - Stewart broke out of a major Daytona drought -- five straight finishes outside top-10 -- last July with his victory, marking his fourth career win at this track, which have all occurred in the summer race. That victory came from the 42nd starting position, marking the worst such start for any eventual champion, and marked his eighth top-5 and 13th top-10 in his profitable Daytona career. And even though he's underperformed in the past two weeks at Sonoma (28th place) and Kentucky (20th place), these tracks are nothing like this 2.5-mile beast coming up on Saturday night. With odds more favorable this time around than last July (12-to-1), Stewart represents a great payoff for a moderate wager.

Jimmie Johnson (12/1) - Despite the slew of bad luck Johnson has encountered at Daytona with five DNF results (four crashes and a rear axle issue) in his past 13 starts, he's still managed two victories, seven top-5's and nearly $8.5M in career earnings at this track. That includes his win at the Daytona 500 to start the season, and he nearly won at the other superspeedway, Talladega, finishing fifth after leading for 16 laps. Johnson has been in first place in the Sprint Cup Points Standings for 12 straight weeks now, thanks to three wins, seven top-5's and a sparkling 9.4 average finish this season. Johnson once again represents the best chalk in this field, with the added bonus of getting double-digit odds.

Joey Logano (25/1) - He’s the best darkhorse candidate for Saturday’s race, with finishes of 3rd and 4th in the past two Coke Zero 400 races. Logano also placed 9th in the 2012 Daytona 500, and has a pair of top-5's in his young career at the other NASCAR superspeedway in Talladega. He had a good chance to post another strong finish at Talladega a few weeks ago before his fourth-place start was ruined by engine failure. The 23-year-old has also been excellent in each of his past six starts this season with an average finish of 7.7. His 11th-place showing at Sonoma's road course is the worst finish he's had during this stretch, with last week's fourth-place finish being the best. At 25-to-1, Logano is worthy of a small wager.

Dave Blaney (200/1) - Admittedly there aren't many longshots in such a wide-open race, but Blaney sure has some seriously favorable odds at 200-to-1. While he's yet to win a NASCAR race in 447 tries, earning just two poles and four top-5's in this monster span, the 50-year-old Blaney has had mild success at Daytona. In the 11 Daytona races he's actually finished since 2004, he's placed 17th or better in five of those, including two of the past three. He led at least one lap in two of those races, and also led in two other races he eventually crashed in, both which occurred since 2008. As long as you treat Blaney like a lottery ticket that you don't expect to win, go ahead and place a one-unit wager on him during this holiday weekend.

Coke Zero 400 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

The only thing that practice and qualifying at Daytona provided was more questions for bettors trying to pick a winner for Saturday night's Coke Zero 400. Already baffled by the likes of David Ragan winning the last restrictor-plate race at Talladega, Thursday's practices added A.J. Allmendinger and David Reutimann to the jumbled mess of quality candidates to win after being fastest in each of the sessions.

On Friday, order seemed to be restored without the draft during qualifying laps where Joe Gibbs Racing heavyweights Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth will start Saturday's race from the front row. Busch has always found his way around Daytona pretty well -- winning this race in 2008 -- while no one has been better in plate races this season than Kenseth. Although Kenseth doesn't claim one of his four wins this season on a restrictor-plate track, he has led 228 of the 392 laps between the Daytona 500 and the May Talladega race. He's also a two-time Daytona 500 winner.

The best wagering strategy to employ for Saturday's race is to be selective and cautious. Even before this season with the Gen-6 car that seems to give more drivers than ever a chance at winning, successful NASCAR bettors always bet less in the plate races because of the uncertainty and volatile nature of the races. They'll take more attempts with longer shots, but bet less. And the only time they'll take a shot with driver matchups is if finding a few drivers at larger plus-money.

It's a rarity to see any book post a driver over a -150 favorite in matchups during plate races as opposed to normal tracks where they sometimes get up as high as -300 if a driver practiced well. This is the perfect example of why plate-race practices tell very little and should only be small portion of any final betting strategy. If 26 drivers can say they don't need practice in the final session because nothing more can be gained, like they did Thursday, then that should be good enough for the bettor as well.

A nice betting strategy to employ is taking your set bankroll and bet two of the favorites, like Kenseth or Kevin Harvick, using 40 percent of your allotted money. Take two more drivers with middle-of-the-road odds, like Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin, at 18-to-1, using up 30 percent of your money. Then with the other 30 percent, select three drivers with larger odds like Ragan or teammate David Gilliland at 75-to-1, along with maybe someone like a Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at 40-to-1.

Or, you could say the heck with it all and roll the dice for one big payout and throw the entire bankroll on Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 10-to-1, which isn't uncommon. If it's such a crap shoot, some fans/bettors figure, "why not hope my favorite driver comes in, finally, on a track he loves."

Over the past 20 races, no one has a better average finish (12.9) than Junior. Ragan and Gilliand will be driving the same chassis they used to finish 1-2 at Talladega, and Stenhouse will be driving a chassis that used to be in Greg Biffle's garage and finished third in the 2012 Daytona 500.

If this were a normal race track with the type of data Kenseth has accumulated this season on similar tracks, he would be about a 7-to-2 favorite. He should have the best car again, but as we have seen, the best car doesn't always win at Daytona. In fact, it rarely wins.