Richmond preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It’ll be hard to beat last week’s epic race at Talladega with a first-time Cup winner taking the checkers, but the Capital of the Confederacy of Richmond in the Commonwealth of Virginia will do its best to take it up a notch. Tailgates start early and the intensity of the fans translate well on a nationally televised audience. The intoxicated flavor of this crowd in Richmond under the lights is annually the most rowdy, fun loving live audience on the circuit.
After everyone makes their future wagers on the Kentucky Derby, everything shifts to the NASCAR circuits with wagers abound in Nevada, offshore, and also the simple pool among fans in the stands. The question is who to take amid all the craziness of this season? What driver do we look at to win this week? Do you take the steady pick of a favorite like Jimmie Johnson, a nice mid-long shot like Mark Martin, or the Vegas brothers Busch duo?
The first thing you want to do is look at what happened at Phoenix a couple weeks ago. Mark Martin had the most dominant car in the field. Not only did he sit on the pole, but he proceeded to lead the most laps and win the race despite several cars hunting him down like Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart.
The reason we look at Richmond the same way as we look at Phoenix is because the two tracks are similar in setup, which also includes New Hampshire on the handicapping chart. All three tracks are similar only in distance and degree of banking on the tracks, However, they are all different in size and configuration. The only supporting evidence is that the crew chiefs usually use the same cars and set-up for each and the fact that there are several multiple winners on these tracks by the same driver over the course of any season.
Just to reflect on that Phoenix race since it is so important to any strategy of wagers this week, Martin rolled, but Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch were just a notch below in their cars. Jimmie Johnson is a three time winner at Richmond, but at Phoenix this time he was somewhat ordinary after he had won three straight races there. He never was in real contention for the win, but he did finish 4th, which is still misleading and a testament to his stellar driving ability.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. played the irregular pit cycle game for much of the Phoenix race and found himself leading several laps in the middle of the race while others followed the pack of leaders with a normal pit strategy. After a great 2nd place finish last week, the Junior Nation has only wet their beak. This is a track where Junior should run strong at as evident by his 3 career wins on the track. Last season he should have won one of the two races in Richmond, but settled for a 15thand 4th. After getting his first top 5 finish last week at Talladega, he could get into that greedy stage and take the quality finishes as they come en route to a position in the Chase.
The hint last season that a Phoenix top performer would do well at Richmond was Clint Bowyer from RCR. Bowyer has finished 2nd in Phoenix behind Johnson and then followed it up with a win in Richmond. If that scenario were to take place again, Tony Stewart would be that guy that does takes the victory lap. He was strong at Phoenix, a track he has always run well at, but didn’t have enough to chase Martin down in the final laps. He has 3 career wins in the Cup series there along with two truck series wins, and several IRL laps for the two years he drove there. If Stewart brings back he car he ran well with at Phoenix, Stewart is he realistic favorite to win this week.
Jimmie Johnson has won 3 of the last 4 Richmond races. Last year he took both Phoenix and Richmond fall races. Jimmie is currently third in points, 64 points behind the new leader, Las Vegas, Kurt Busch.
Kurt is sitting in the points lead for the first time since March 2005. This also marks the first time since 1986 that the top 4 in points are all former Cup champions. Busch, Jeff Gordon, Stewart, and Johnson have combine to win 10 Cup titles.
Kyle Busch has had 8 career races at Richmond and has finished in the top 5 on six of those occasions. He has yet to win although he did everything he could to win in this race last season by knocking Junior, who was leading, out of the way. Clint Bowyer, who wasn’t as good as Busch or Earnhardt, was in 3rd place and swooped in like a buzzard for the road kill and got the win. Hopefully we get to see Junior and Kyle mix it up this week under the lights.
Because the race is run in Virginia we have to naturally look at some of Natives. Cancel Elliott Sadler from the small bunch and you’re left with Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton. Burton won in the fall of 1998 and Hamlin has had solid finishes the last two season just to have a all sorts of issues on pit road and cost him a win. Hamlin led 381 laps in this race last season. He’s been searching for a Richmond win since he began the Cup series. He’s captured a win in Martinsville before, but Richmond is closer to his Chesterfield, VA home and considers this his home track.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #14 Tony Stewart (12/1)
2) #5 Mark Martin (15/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
Great show in Talladega
The Talladega finale was the most exciting finish in recent motor sports history. Beyond Edwards doing a flip in his car, instead of him flipping off his car, there were several memorable moments. Edwards impromptu Ricky Bobby run from the “Talladega Nights” movie after crashing short of the finish line was classic. Edwards being classy after the race and admitting guilt after Brad Keselowski won for the first time in his 5 race Cup career made me respect Edwards more than ever.
Keselowski paying off at 40 to 1 as Field bet finally paid off for those bettors who religiously dump a few bucks on the “Field” every week saying, “You never know”, even though, “You do know” that it will never happen. Well, it happened!
The final show of appreciation for the race goes to NASCAR and the track for their safety precautions. The new COT handled some unbelievable wrecks on Sunday that the older car may not have been able to handle. None of the drivers were hurt. It also tethered most of the parts and wheels so when Edwards spectacular crash came, the fans wouldn’t face death from a Goodyear. As for the track, the catch fence on the front stretch that caught most of the debris from the flying car. I’m no expert, but I have to think a 3400 pound car going 200 mph and hitting an object generates more force than some of our horrific natural disasters. How that fence held is beyond me, but it did, and thousands of fans can be thankful it did.
Hendrick Motorsports goes for 5 in a row, kind of
Jimmie Johnson won at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon won at Texas, Mark Martin won at Phoenix, and now Brad Keselowski wins at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt is looking to become the 5th different Hendrick car to win a race in a row. True, Keselowski is not officially a Hendrick driver. But the owner of that car, James Finch, bought the chassis from Hendrick and leased the engine from Hendrick as well. To me, it sounds like a Hendrick car.
I need some crown royal after yesterdays race
I need some crown royal after yesterdays race
;D
Try a little Denny Hamlin this week and you will be just fine.
ODDS TO WIN THE CROWN ROYAL 400
Jimmie Johnson +450
Kyle Busch +500
Denny Hamlin +500
Tony Stewart +700
Jeff Gordon +700
Kurt Busch +800
Mark Martin +800
Carl Edwards +1000
Greg Biffle +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
Matt Kenseth +2000
Kevin Harvick +2500
Clint Bowyer +2500
Jeff Burton +3250
Kasey Kahne +3500
Brian Vickers +3500
Martin Truex Jr +3500
David Reutimann +4500
Field (All Others) +1250
Crown Royal 400 PreQ
Denny Hamlin had a strong car at Talladega last weekend pushing cars to the front of the pack. Unfortunately for Hamlin his car was not strong enough to stay up front with the leaders and eventually fell into the calamity that is always restrictor plate racing wrecking with less than 10 laps remaining. Hamlin would be in store for a much better day on the short track at Richmond International Raceway this weekend. He is averaging a 9th place finish in six career starts at the track with four top 10s. Hamlin is looking for his first win since the spring race at Martinsville. He is the early favorite for the Crown Royal 400.
Sitting just behind Hamlin on the PreQ forecast is former teammate Tony Stewart. Stewart is also looking for his first win of the season since moving into the seat of his own #14 Old Spice Chevrolet. He has been inching closer each week that is until he had engine troubles at Talladega last weekend finishing in 23rd position. Stewart should be able to rebound this weekend at a track where he has posted four consecutive top 10 finishes.
The driver that looked like he was going to win the Aaron’s 499 before the late race dramatics, Ryan Newman, should be in solid position for a top finishing spot this weekend as well. Newman did manage to hold onto the 3rd position even after plowing into the #99 of Carl Edwards and sending him into the catch fence. Newman has posted two of his first three top 10 finishes on the short tracks this season placing 7th at Bristol and 6th at Martinsville. With teammate Tony Stewart ranking among the top 10 as well it should be a good weekend for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Since the start of the 2008 season Jamie McMurray seems to have virtually zero racing luck. McMurray looked to have had a decent car at Talladega but was involved on the lap 7 ‘big one’ and was done for the day. The 42nd place finish dropped him all the way to 29th in the point standings. McMurray has had strong cars throughout the early part of the season only to suffer some sort of mechanical failure or get caught up in a wreck. Richmond has not been that kind to him during his career either as he is averaging a 27th place finish in 12 career starts at the track. He is averaging a 36th place finish in the last four starts at the track – we would avoid him at all costs this season.
After a decent start to the season A.J. Allmendinger has struggled in the last three events. He has failed to post a finish in the top 30 with an average finish of 35th place as he has dropped to the 27th position in the point standings. Allmendinger has struggled on the short tracks in his career as well as at Richmond averaging a 35th place finish at the track in four starts with zero top 20 finishes. Allmendinger has the skills to make it at this level but with his recent struggles and poor history on the short tracks makes us leery of adding to our roster for this race.
profantasysports.com
Crown Royal 400 Driver Rating
Richmond International Raceway — the site of Race 10 on the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule — has proven to be pivotal to the hopes of potential Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup contenders. Nearly 80 percent of the drivers who have been Chase eligible coming out of the spring Richmond race have gone on to qualify for the Chase, with the championship field set following the second Richmond race. The breakdown is as follows: 2004 (8-10); 2005 (6-10); 2006 (8-10); 2007 (11-12); and 2008 (10-12). The drivers know good and well that how they stand after Saturday night’s 300-miler at this .75-mile D-shaped oval, will serve as a good barometer in gauging their championship hopes.
Commonly referred to as “America’s Premier Short Track,” Richmond International Raceway features a storied NASCAR racing tradition. This Saturday night’s running of the Crown Royal Presents The Russ Friedman 400 will mark the 106th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race held at RIR. Only Daytona (124), Martinsville (120) and Darlington (108) have hosted more points-paying NSCS events and only Martinsville (1949) and Darlington (1950) have hosted NASCAR Sprint Cup races longer than Richmond, which hosted its first race in NASCAR’s premier series in 1953.
Three-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson will be aiming for his fourth trip to Victory Lane at Richmond. All three of his wins at RIR have come in the last two seasons, including last year’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 in September and a Richmond sweep in 2007. Considering his recent success at Martinsville Speedway as well, Johnson has been dominant in the Commonwealth of Virginia of late. Including a win in the March event this year, Johnson has won five of the last six races at Martinsville dating back to 2006. During that stretch, he has won an amazing eight of the last 10 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races in Virginia.
profantasysports.com
Driver Handicaps: Richmond
Racingone.com
This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Richmond International Raceway for Saturday's Crown Royal Presents the Russ Friedman 400. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 400-lap event.
Who's HOT at Richmond
• Kyle Busch leads all drivers with a 6.8 average finish.
• Richmond is Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s best track based on finishing average at 11.1.
• Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson join Earnhardt Jr. as the only active drivers with three wins.
• 2006 September winner, Kevin Harvick has the best average driver rating at Richmond at 118.8.
• Denny Hamlin, who led 381 laps in this event last year, has finished sixth or better in four of his six starts.
• Defending event winner Clint Bowyer has finished 12th or better in his six starts.
• Two-time winner Jeff Gordon is coming off four consecutive top 10s.
Keep an Eye on at Richmond
• Of the drivers already mentioned, David Reutimann is the only other driver to lead over 100 laps at RIR with the new car.
• Mark Martin will return in the same car that won at Phoenix two weeks ago.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in the last five spring races at Richmond.
• Kurt Busch is driving the same car that finished third at Phoenix.
Qualifying Tidbits
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with five poles at Richmond Int'l Raceway. Bobby Allison and Richard Petty both have eight poles at the track. Eleven RIR pole winners will be in the field for Saturday's race. Only two race winners since 1993 have come from the pole position at Richmond. Jimmie Johnson won the Sept. 2007 race from the pole and Kasey Kahne won the 2005 May race from the pole. Last May, polesitter Denny Hamlin led a race record 381 laps before a tire problem cost him a shot at the victory. Qualifying has been cancelled six times at Richmond, most recently last fall. Past Pole Winners | Starting Positions of Richmond Winners
RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Jimmie Johnson
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Rachael West: Denny Hamlin
Kym Opalenik: Tony Stewart
Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
1. Kurt Busch: This weekend, Busch will try to redeem himself in the May race at RIR after crashing out just over halfway in this event last year. That 42nd-place finish was his worst to date at the track and came on the heels of two top-10 finishes in the previous races. Busch has won once at RIR in the 2005 fall race, which was his last appearance there for Roush Racing. Since joining Penske, Busch has posted three top 10s, including one last September. On Saturday, Busch will be driving the same car (Chassis No. 576) that finished third at Phoenix two weeks ago.
2. Jeff Gordon: In the last 17 races at Richmond International Raceway, Gordon has scored 10 top-10 finishes, including a win in the 2000 fall race - his last of two victories at RIR. His best run at the track since 2004 came in 2007 when he led a combined 305 laps en route to a pair of fourth-place finishes. In total, Gordon has finished in the top five 12 times and in the top 10 20 times, and has led 1,065 laps. This weekend marks his 33rd start on the .75-mile track. With his 7.8 starting average, Gordon has the best average among drivers who have started in seven or more races at RIR. This average is bolstered by his five pole starts.
3. Jimmie Johnson: Richmond International Raceway is Johnson's worst short track based on his finishing average of 17.5. However, Johnson has figured out the track as of late, winning three of the last four races there. He lowered his finishing average by leading a combined 241 laps in that span. The victories were three of only four top-10s at the track. Johnson's only DNF at Richmond came in the 2005 May race when his day ended with a trip to the backstretch inside retaining wall, which resulted in a 40th-place finish. This weekend, Johnson will race the same chassis (No. 520) that won at Richmond, Martinsville and Phoenix in 2008, and Martinsville this season.
4. Tony Stewart: In his first of three Sprint Cup wins at Richmond International Raceway, Stewart led a dominating 333 of the 400 race laps on September 11, 1999. His last win there came in the 2002 spring race, and since then, he has finished in the top 10 eight times, including the last four races. Stewart has also been successful in the Truck Series at RIR with two wins and a top-three finish in three starts. This weekend, Stewart will pilot a new car (chassis No. 530) when he makes his first start at RIR with Stewart-Haas Racing.
5. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin will be looking to redemem himself in the May race at Richmond International Raceway after he had to settle for a 24th-place finish last year in this event. The finish, which is his worst at the .75-mile track, was the result of a cut tire after leading 381 laps of the race's 410. Hamlin is coming off his second career third-place finish (fourth top 10) after leading four laps last summer. This weekend, Hamlin will be driving the same car (chassis No. 238) that finished second at Martinsville in March.
6. Kyle Busch: Richmond International Raceway is Busch's best track based on his finishing average of 6.8. With the exception of the past two summer events, Busch has finished in the top five in all of his starts, including three runner-up finishes. Richmond is also the site of Busch's first NASCAR win when he won the May 2004 Nationwide Series race.
7. Carl Edwards: Edwards captured his best Sprint Cup finish (sixth) at Richmond International Raceway in his first start at the track in 2004. His only other top-10 in eight starts came in the 2006 and 2008 May races when he finished seventh. This weekend, Edwards will pilot the same chassis (No. 587) that won at Pocono in August.
8. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer benefitted from Denny Hamlin's misfortune in this event last year at Richmond as he took the victory after the dominant Hamlin cut a tire late in the race. The win was his third top 10 in six starts. This weekend, Bowyer will be driving the same car (chassis No. 218) that finished fifth at Martinsville in March.
9. Jeff Burton: Burton has competed in 29 Sprint Cup races at Richmond International Raceway, capturing one win, one pole and 13 top-10 finishes. His best RIR finish (sixth) in nine races with Richard Childress came last September. This weekend, Burton will pilot the same chassis (No. 255) that finished 15th at Martinsville.
10. Greg Biffle: Biffle had a pretty good record going at Richmond, with five consecutive top-10 finishes from 2004-2006, until the COT was introduced there four races ago. Over the last four races he's scored a best finish of 14th, in both events last year, and has an average finish of 21.5. In 13 total starts at Richmond Biffle's average finish is 15.7.
11. David Reutimann: Reutimann is coming off his best finish at Richmond. He led 104 laps last fall at the track en route to a ninth-place finish. In four starts he has an average finish of 18.2. The track is sentimental for him as it's where he made his first NASCAR start in the Nationwide Series start for Joe Nemechek in 2002. This weekend Reutimann is using the same chassis (No. 628) that he drove to an eighth-place finish at Phoenix a few weeks ago.
12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in half of the 18 races he's participated in at Richmond, including a win in the fall of 2002. But his last one came in this race in 2007 with a 10th-place finish. Last year, Kenseth finished 38th and 39th, respectively, at RIR. That year marked his worst year at the track since his rookie year in 2000.
13. Ryan Newman: Newman won the 2003 fall race at Richmond and posted runner-up finishes there in his first two starts. Since then, he's fared better in the spring races than the fall races, with top 10s in his last five spring races and none in the fall events. In 14 starts, his average finish is 12.3.
14. Kasey Kahne: Kahne is making his first start at Richmond with Richard Petty Motorsports. He's made 10 prior starts there and recorded a win in this event in 2005 from the pole. He has an average finish of 17.5 with five top 10s.
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr: Since winning his third Sprint Cup race at Richmond International Raceway in the 2006 May race, Earnhardt Jr. has gone on to post a 15.8 average finish. His fourth-place finish (second RIR start with Hendrick) last September was his only top 10 in that span. In 19 starts, Junior has finished in the top-five eight times and the top-10 ten times. This weekend, Earnhardt will be driving a new car (chassis No. 541) in the Crown Royal Presents the Russ Friedman 400.
16. Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya's best finish so far at Richmond in four Cup starts was 26th in his track debut in this event in 2007. He qualified sixth for this race last year but failed to capitalize on it and finished 32nd. The team is bringing chassis No. 817 to the track, which Montoya raced to a 12th-place finish at Martinsville this season.
17. Brian Vickers: Vickers is making his 10th Cup start at Richmond this weekend. He has only one top-10 finish and an average of 29.2. His only top 10 at the track came in his track debut in the spring of 2004. Vickers finished eighth after starting on the pole while driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
18. Mark Martin: Richmond is one track on the schedule where Martin chose to run full-time while participating in two part-time Cup seasons the last two years. Last year, he scored two top-five finishes at the short track. The NASCAR veteran started from the outside pole and finished third last May. In 46 starts there he has one win, 25 top 10s and an average finish of 12.1. Martin is making his second start in the team's Chassis No. 5-538, which made its debut with a win at Phoenix a few weeks ago.
19. Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose is riding the wave of his best oval finish of fourth-place at Talladega to Richmond this weekend where he'll be making his Cup debut. The team is bringing a new car to the track (chassis No. 622) for the race. Ambrose has raced in four Nationwide Series races at the track with a best finish of 13th there last fall.
20. Kevin Harvick: Harvick has the highest average finish of all drivers in the last eight races at Richmond (6.0) due to the fact that he's posted eight consecutive top-10 finishes at the track, including one victory in the fall of 2006. He has led the most laps over the last eight races of any driver (679) and his driver rating of 118.8 also leads the field. Harvick will be behind the wheel of chassis No. 212 for Saturday's race. It's the same car his teammate Bowyer won with at New Hampshire in 2007 and Richmond last year.
Crown Royal 400 HOT! Sheet
If he makes the race, it’ll only be the sixth time that Brad Keselowski takes the green flag at the Cup level. But his name is being added to fantasy rosters everywhere thanks to what happened at Talladega. It’s not just that victory you should look at though. In four of his five career races, he improved impressively from the start to the end. Keep your eye on him, and if he’s in the starting lineup on Saturday night, he may be a steal for you.
The man who may have taken the hardest hit of all last week, Ryan Newman, is also near the top of our sheet this week. In his last five races, he has a 9th place average finish. Included in this run are finishes of 7th at Bristol and 6th at Martinsville. What are those? Short tracks. What are they racing on this Saturday night? A short track. He’s got an average finish of 7th in the last five spring races at Richmond, so it’s safe to say that he’s a good option.
The fastest riser in the rankings has to be Greg Biffle. Not too long ago, he was catching hard luck with two straight DNFs in Atlanta (accident) and Bristol (engine). He followed that up by finishing two laps down in 28th at Martinsville. But since then, he has been on fire. As you can see on our chart below, his average finish in the last three events is 5th place. It’s been a while since he won a race, but that may come to an end this weekend.
At the very bottom of the sheet this week is Clint Bowyer, which is hard to believe considering he had the longest streak of finishing races (81). Notice the word ‘had’. That impressive stat came to a screeching halt this past Sunday when he was part of the first ‘big one’ which forced him home in 39th. It was the third straight race in which he failed to finish on the lead lap which has pushed him down to 8th in the standings. He won this race last year, so we can’t say sit him. But he gets a ‘buyer beware’ label.
That same distinction also goes for his teammate Kevin Harvick. As you can see below, his average finish has been awful recently. In fact, he’s only had one top 25 finish in the last five races (11th – Martinsville). That was the only time he’s finished on the lead lap in that span as well. Things have gone so awry, he’s getting a new crew chief this weekend. His track record at Richmond has been tremendous with a 6th place average finish in his last six trips, so maybe things start to turn back toward the positive side this weekend.
profantasysports.com
Hamlin looks for redemption at home track
May 1, 2009
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -Kyle Busch celebrated his Las Vegas victory this season like it was the biggest win of his career.
From a distance, Denny Hamlin couldn't help but feel a twinge of jealousy. Every driver wants to win on his home track, and Busch crossed that goal off his list with his March win in Vegas.
Hamlin, his teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing, desperately wants to win at Richmond International Raceway and is confident a win on his home track would be far bigger than Busch's accomplishment. Hamlin starts third in Saturday night's race.
``Vegas is a big area. I'm from here. I'm from right down the road,'' Hamlin said Friday, pointing his arm toward Chesterfield, his hometown located roughly 20 minutes South of RIR.
``I think it's a little smaller community than what Vegas is. Vegas fans out there are more people that are from here, there and everywhere. The Richmond fans are the people that are from here. I think it would probably mean a little bit more to me than what the Vegas win means to him.''
It's why it took Hamlin almost two months to get over the disappointment after last year's near miss at Richmond. He opened the weekend with a win in the Nationwide Series, and knew he had an excellent shot at the sweep with the stout car JGR gave him for the Sprint Cup Series main event.
He started from the pole and never looked back, leading 381 laps while steadily pulling away from the field. But a leaking right front tire snatched away his chance for a victory. Forced to slow his car, Hamlin was caught by Dale Earnhardt Jr. with 11 laps to go.
Then the tire began to fail, and Hamlin had to stop his car on the track to get NASCAR to call a caution so he could pit. In an instant, Hamlin went from daydreaming about his victory celebration to wanting to rip off his steering wheel.
He wound up a devastating 24th.
``It was just frustrating,'' he said. ``You can't describe the emotion. It's just one of those points in a driver's career where he says that 'This is the race that this track owes me.'
``I forgot it was last year. I thought it was 10 years ago.''
Hamlin has an idea of how a home track can torment a driver - former teammate Tony Stewart was famously haunted at Indianapolis Motor Speedway before winning the first of his two Brickyard races in 2005. And he was aware of Dale Earnhardt's famous struggles in the Daytona 500, a race he didn't win until his 20th attempt.
He doesn't want to suffer a similar fate.
But Stewart is confident Hamlin will eventually have his day at Richmond.
``The good thing is he's been close and he knows it's just a matter of time before he gets one here,'' Stewart said. ``I don't think it's something where he lays awake at night because he feels like he's never going to get one. The good thing is you get two chances a year here. You only get one at Indy.''
Indeed, Hamlin has two shots a year to make it to Victory Lane in Richmond. And since his first Cup visit to RIR, he's always challenged.
Hamlin has led laps in all six of his career Cup starts, started from the pole twice and finished sixth or better four times. Before the tire failed him last spring, his previous worst finish was 15th his rookie season.
When he tries for that elusive win Saturday night, Hamlin will likely have nearly 50 friends and family cheering him on from the grandstands. He opted out of racing Friday night's Nationwide race, giving him the opportunity to sit in the stands with them for the first time since 2004.
Then he hopes to give them a show on Saturday night, this time without the late-race disappointment. He's certain a win would be the biggest of his career, surpassing even a possible Daytona 500 victory.
``Winning the Daytona 500 has a lot of prestige to it over the long run,'' he said. ``But this, for me, would be really good here at home.''
Crown Royal 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard
With 67 points separating first from fourth in the Sprint Cup standings, NASCAR revs up the weekend racing under the lights at the short-track of Richmond International Raceway for the Crown Royal presents the Russ Friedman 400 on Saturday night at 7:45, televised by FOX.
After Carl Edwards provided the networks some amazing late race footage (how great was it that he ran across the finish line?) Kurt Busch earned 165 points for his sixth place finish at Talladega last Sunday, good enough by five points, to take the lead from Jeff Gordon in the Sprint Cup standings. Jimmie Johnson is 64 points behind for third place and Tony Stewart is 67 points behind in fourth place.
While all four drivers have won at Richmond, Johnson is the only driver of the three to have won two consecutive races; sweeping in 2007 and winning the fall race in 2008.
Who will win the 2009 Crown Royal 400?
Last year at Richmond it was late in the race when Dale Earnhardt, Jr and Kyle Busch wrecked (some might say Busch caused it) as they fought for the lead late in the race. This week Junior said there were no hard feelings from either driver and as wrecks go it was a clean wreck. Maybe it was.
Coming into the Crown Royal 400 this week Junior gets to wear the mantle of the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to emerge from the carnage of Talladega finishing in the Top 10. In fact, Junior did a lot better than finish in the Top 10; he finished second. The confidence is running high in Earnhardt, Jr Nation and the thrill of victory is seemingly one race away. Just ask any No.88 fan.
Is Richmond the race that will bring team HMS another victory? Perhaps, as three of their four drivers have already notched Sprint Cup wins this season with Junior being the exception. A lot of people like Junior's chances this week, but it will take more than a lucky second at 'Dega to convince me. And as good as HMS driver's have been this season you can't ignore the fact that last year there was one driver who dominated 95 percent of the race: Denny Hamlin.
There are a few reasons why Hamlin looks good this Saturday. In six starts at Richmond, Hamlin has finished in the Top 5 50 percent of the time. In last year's Crown Royal Hamlin managed 24th, but the two previous spring races Hamlin finished second in 2006 and third in 2007. And if it wasn't for some bad luck last April perhaps he would have won. Hamlin has led for 452 laps and has never had a DNF while his average finish is only bettered by his average start. Besides in his last five races, Hamlin has notched two seconds and a sixth. He's definitely due for a win.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No.11, (6/1)
2009 Crown Royal 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
A quick start to the season has kept Richard Childress Racing's Clint Bowyer in the Top 10 of the Sprint Cup standings. A fourth place finish at Daytona and a second place finish two weeks later at Las Vegas kept Bowyer in the Top 10. April was cruel to Bowyer as his best finish was a 22nd at the Samsung 500 and last week he posted a 39th. Even so, Bowyer is lucky he is in eighth place in the standings, 201 points behind the leader. That said, Bowyer is this race's defending champion. In his career at Richmond Bowyer has completed 2,410 laps without a DNF, has an average finish of 9.3 and last year when he won he started from 31st on the grid. A repeat is not likely but Bowyer has a good team and RCR cars seem to do well on the short tracks. At least you know that with this lucky dog long shot he'll finish the 400 laps.
Pick! Clint Bowyer, 33, (25/1)
2009 Crown Royal 400- Odds for Top 3 Finish
Chances are good that if Denny Hamlin doesn't win the Crown Royal 400 then Johnson will. Johnson is coming off a disappointing 30th place DNF at Talladega , victim of the second "big one" of the afternoon. Johnson was visibly upset after the race but there is no doubt he'll pull it together for Richmond. You won't win a lot by backing No. 48 in this race, but a win is a win. Johnson has won at Richmond the past three of four races and is currently third place and 64-points out of the lead in the Sprint Cup standings. Chances are very good Johnson races with a vengeance this Sunday.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (5/4)
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Crown Royal 400 PostQ
Denny Hamlin maintains his hold on the top spot form the PreQ forecast to the PostQ forecast. Hamlin had an excellent qualifying effort as he will be starting in the 3rd position. He was also fast in the practice sessions sitting in the 6th position on our Speed chart. Hamlin has four top 10s in six career starts at Richmond International Raceway with an average finish of 9th place. He is still searching for his first win of the season and could very well be making that left hand turn into victory lane this weekend in the Crown Royal 400.
If not for a porous start to the season Mark Martin would probably be among the point standing leaders. That poor start plus a wreck last weekend now has Martin sitting just inside the top 20 in the 18th position. Martin runs well at Richmond however, as he had a pair of top 5 finishes running a part-time schedule last season. He posted his first win in three seasons at Phoenix a few weeks ago and he could again be back in victory lane this weekend. Look for a good day out of the #5 CarQuest Chevrolet and a move up in the point standings.
After the race at Daytona many felt that Kevin Harvick would be a contender each and every week this season. That has not been the case as Harvick is fighting to remain in the top 20 in the point standings. He has not had a top 10 finish in the last five races with four of those finishes coming outside the top 25. Harvick was involved in the early wreck at Talladega last weekend and is looking to rebound in a big way. The race at Richmond could cure his ills as he has run very well at the track in his career. Harvick has eight consecutive top 10 finishes at the track and ranks No. 1 overall on NASCARs Driver Rating report. Jump on the #29 Pennzoil Chevrolet for this race.
Carl Edwards should have been in victory lane last weekend at Talladega. That wasn’t the case however as he got outmaneuvered by Brad Keselowski and ended up in the fence finishing in 24th place. Things might not get any better this weekend as he has fallen from the 10th position on the PreQ forecast to 22nd on the PostQ forecast. He struggled in qualifying and will be starting well back in the pack in the 37th position. That starting spot will be difficult to overcome on the short track of Richmond. Edwards wasn’t much better in the practice sessions ranking 41st on our Speed chart. With those struggles in mind we recommend avoiding Edwards this weekend.
It doesn’t look like it will be a good weekend for Roush-Fenway Racing. Edwards’ teammate Matt Kenseth is another driver we recommend to avoid for this race. Kenseth qualifying a few spots ahead of Edwards in the 35th position and was just as bad in the practice sessions ranking 40th on our Speed chart. He posted a pair of finishes outside the top 35 at Richmond last season and that streak could continue in the Crown Royal 400. Stay away from the #17 DeWalt Ford and consider avoiding the entire RFR team.
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