Daytona 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
For those of those us that were starving for any type of NASCAR action through a January with no testing, we sure had our cravings satisfied over the weekend with a wreck-filled Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 qualifying. Sure, we can all say we don’t like crashes and that only the feeble-minded are attracted to the sport because of it, but come on, we’ve been waiting for anything NASCAR for so long and they showed up with a literal bang.
What I learned the most over the weekend was that I didn’t need to learn that much because the cars ran almost exactly like last season. That was my biggest fear coming into the season without preseason testing -- the uncertainty. And while you can never be certain about any restrictor-plate racing because of the volatile nature, we can be certain there is nothing new that will throw us for a loop like tandem racing did a couple years ago.
We can almost say the racing is a continuation of 2014 and that was confirmed when we saw Joe Gibbs Racing finish first and third in the Sprint Unlimited and Hendrick Motorsports put two of their cars on the front row during Daytona 500 qualifying. Last season JGR won the Sprint Unlimited and both Budweiser Duel races as well as the first Talladega race while HMS won the Daytona 500 with Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Despite having a good read on who has the competitive advantage, it stills means very little in the grand scheme of things because things happen so fast at Daytona where one lap you’re leading and the next lap you’re involved in a 14-car pile up.
Because of that volatile nature, you don’t want to go crazy with wagers. Yes, we’re excited because racing is back, but you also have to be realistic and play the percentages. Next week in Atlanta following practices, the odds are in your favor because the top drivers will hold more true to their rating where you’ll start with maybe eight drivers that present the best value at the beginning of the week, and then you‘ll narrow it down to maybe four or five after final practices and then have a great shot at showing a profit for the week. For Daytona, even though we’re all excited about it being the first real race of the year, you should be betting only half of what your normal weekly NASCAR bankroll is.
There will be 43 drivers starting in Sunday’s race and 35 of them have a legitimate shot to win. Next week in Atlanta, there are only 15 drivers that a legitimate case can be made for. Translation: Daytona odds favor the sportsbooks, which is why most are willing to give double-digit odds to win on all of them. You won’t see a favorite as high as 10/1 odds on any other non-restrictor plate track like Earnhardt Jr. is this week at the Westgate SuperBook.
This week, we get some kind of NASCAR racing almost every day up until Sunday. There will be two practices on Wednesday, a practice Thursday and then two Budweiser Duel qualifying races later that night, which wagering will also be offered. Friday there are two more practices then final practice Saturday and then the Great American Race on Sunday. That’s quite a bit of action to take in for one week after being starved for so long.
My betting strategy is pretty simple here. I’m not betting it like a normal race, but the wagers will be spread across a few of the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski (12/1) in both matchups and odds to win. Because it’s Daytona, I’ll also throw in a couple of long shots like Greg Biffle at 35/1 and Paul Menard at 50/1. We’ve seen the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Aric Almirola cash in a odds of 50/1 of higher at Daytona in recent years, so it’s not a bad idea to take a shot with one or two drivers with long odds.
A driver I have had some good luck picking against in Daytona matchups over the years has been Jimmie Johnson. I actually had him to win the 2006 Daytona 500 as my main driver, and I was burned by going against him in 2013 when he swept the season, but I've had more success on the track betting against the No. 48. He's finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona races -- including the summer 400 mile event. There aren't too many matchups in NASCAR plate races where you can say there is value, but Johnson has proven to be a good bet against.
Overall, I'm sticking with the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski to win. To me, it just has a feel of being Keselowski's turn. He's in his prime right now, has a championship and knows how to run well with the plates on. He has three wins at Talladega, but has yet to win at Daytona, although he did have a career-best third-place in the 2014 Daytona 500. I wish I had something more concrete to state my case for Keselowski other than 'it just feels right' but that's kind of the guessing game you play when wagering the Daytona 500, which is why you shouldn't bet too much. It worked last year when I took Junior to win with my most weighted odds to win wager, and he hadn't won a plate race since 2004.
The bottom line is that there is really no bad bet to win the race until it losses. It's a crap shoot and I'm just hoping my toss of the dice comes up snake eyes with the No. 2.
Now the real key is finding a place to watch it with sound on. On Sunday, you’re going to have to state your case brilliantly to a sports book supervisor that the Super Bowl of NASCAR deserves to be on with sound more than the Cavaliers/Knicks NBA game or Ohio State/Michigan college hoops. It helps sway their opinion if several people ask showing that a large portion of the guests in the room want the race on with sound. It also helps if you show them some bet tickets on the race at their property.
For an event like this you don’t want to stay at home to watch it, you want to be around several others hootin’ and hollerin’ for your driver, but finding a spot was difficult so I just started going to the race itself with a few buddies. If I had to make a bet on the sports book most likely to have the race on with sound it would be at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sports book. I won’t be at Daytona this year, so I might try my luck with those two places on Sunday.
Top-5 Daytona 500 Finish Prediction:
1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (35/1)
Drivers to Watch - Daytona
By Sportsbook.ag
Another NASCAR season gets underway with the historic Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon. Daytona International Speedway, completed in 1959, is a 2.5-mile, tri-oval track with huge bankings (31-degree turns, 18-degree tri-oval banking). The frontstretch measures 3,800 feet with the backstretch coming in at 3,000 feet. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won this race last year, is the favorite to repeat his Daytona 500 victory (9/1).
Drivers to Watch
Jeff Gordon (12/1) - Gordon won the pole for this race and it will be the last Daytona 500 of his career. He’s had success here in the past, winning the Daytona 500 in 1997, 1999 and 2005. He finished 4th here last year, his best finish at the track since winning 10 years ago. At +1200, Gordon is an excellent value and is worth making a small-to-medium play on in the last chance you’ll ever get to pick him at this historic track.
Denny Hamlin (10/1) - Hamlin has never won the Dayton 500, but he has come extremely close to doing so. Hamlin had a 3rd-place showing back in 2009, placed 4th in the crazy 2012 Daytona 500 won by Matt Kenseth and finished second a year ago, after leading for 16 laps. Hamlin finished the 2014 season with four top-10 finishes in a row and is one of the most consistent drivers there is. He’s a great play at +1000, and it wouldn’t surprise anybody if he finally broke through and won this event.
Kevin Harvick (12/1) - Harvick won the Dayton 500 back in 2007 and has historically driven well at this track. He placed 2nd back in 2009 and has seven total top-10 finishes in this race. Harvick had an excellent 2014 season, winning five races and finishing in the top-5 an outstanding 14 times. He was the #1 ranked driver when the season ended and is getting some pretty excellent odds for somebody who would have surprised nobody if he was listed as the favorite to win.
Sam Hornish Jr. (100/1) - Hornish Jr. was only a part-timer in the Sprint Cup a year ago, but could be heading towards a breakout 2015 season. He’s going to be driving full-time with Richard Petty Motorsports and is feeling very confident about a big year ahead. Hornish Jr.’s best finish at the Daytona 500 was 15th back in 2008, but he’s capable of much more. Although he’s new to being a full-timer in the Sprint Cup, Hornish Jr. has a championship pedigree when it comes to racing and nothing will change that. At +10000, his potential alone makes him worthy of a small wager.
Tony Stewart (15/1) - Stewart is getting some very favorable odds this Sunday and a lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s starting in the 29th position. Stewart is widely considered to be the best active driver who has never entered victory lane at the Daytona 500 and he will be eager to change that this weekend. It’s going to be tough to overcome his position, but he’s finished in the top-10 of this race six times and knows how to operate this track. Stewart’s desire to finally win this race is reason enough to throw a small wager on him at 15-to-1.
Daytona 500 Post-Practice Driver Ratings
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- Between eight practices, the Sprint Unlimited and Budweiser Duels, there is more than enough information to make an educated guess on who will win Sunday’s Daytona 500. It’s almost information overload, to the point where you have to throw out a few of those practice sessions, especially considering practices mean less at restrictor-plate tracks and some of the teams didn't participate in them all.
Perhaps the best source of information is how teams performed at restrictor-plate races last season because it’s apparent not much has changed. The Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports cars look fast -- just like in 2014. Their performances over the past week have just strengthened a belief most of us already had.
While my thoughts from last week haven’t changed too much, it’s fair to say I’m not as high as I once was on Brad Keselowski and I’m not as down as I was on Jimmie Johnson.
Initially, I had Keselowski as a driver who could break through the JGR/HMS stranglehold, but after watching him not do much of anything the past week, I have to back off a bit. I’ve already placed some wagers on him, and there’s nothing I can do about that now, but I’m in a position where I have to bet a little more on some other candidates than I would have liked.
Johnson isn’t one of those drivers I’ll be looking to get new wagers on, but I definitely won’t be picking on him anymore. I already made a few matchup wagers against him, but watching the second Budweiser Duel race – where Johnson hung onto the lead for the final 23 laps by masterfully erasing any momentum from either line chasing him – gave me the nauseous feeling that I had made some bad bets by going against the No. 48.
Johnson still has some poor recent history at Daytona, as he’s finished 20th or worse in seven of his past 10 starts. But the way he battled in the Bud Duel – when he was already locked into the front row – was impressive.
Although these cars are almost identical to last season, I don’t remember it being as hard to pass at Daytona. Between the Sprint Unlimited and two Bud Duel races, it was as though every driver behind the leader was stuck in quicksand. They couldn't propel themselves past the leader. Matt Kenseth held his grip on the Sprint Unlimited lead for the final six laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. held on for the final 17 laps in the first Bud Duel, and then Johnson for the final 23 laps in the second Duel.
In all three cases, an experienced driver knew how to derail an oncoming rush by manipulating the air flow – that skill figures to be huge on Sunday.
Also in all three cases, the winners came from JGR or HMS and the drivers chasing them came from from JGR or HMS as well.
The biggest breakthrough to matching class with JGR and HMS was Martin Truex Jr., who was second in the Sprint Unlimited and fifth in the second Bud Duel. He’s had only one top-10 finish in 19 points-paying Daytona races over his career, but it’s clear by his performances over the last week that he’s up for the challenge of slaying giants on Sunday.