Daytona 500 Odds
By Micah Roberts
Linemakers.com
The 2016 Daytona 500 is only weeks away on Feb. 21 and a few Las Vegas sports books such as the Westgate SuperBook and MGM Resorts already have odds posted for NASCAR’s biggest race of the season, which means it’s time to start handicapping and get some action on the best odds offered before the price drops as the race nears.
As always with restrictor-plate tracks, you have to come in with the handicapping mindset that almost anything can happen. It’s the type of racing that gives up to 38 of 43 drivers a legitimate shot at winning. The cars are almost all equal and the draft really closes the advantage some of the power teams have at the 32 other races. Who thought Trevor Bayne could win the 2011 Daytona 500 at 100-to-1 odds? Not many, but it’s the perfect example of why you can discount too many drivers’ chances of winning.
Because so many drivers have a real shot at winning in the four plate races between Daytona and Talladega, you’re not going to get great odds on quality longshots, but at the same time, you’re going to get nice value on the favorites. At Atlanta, Martinsville or Charlotte, you can get Danica Patrick at around 300-to-1 odds, but in plate races she’s in the 60-to-1 range.
The only major change in the rules package as it applies to restrictor-plate tracks is a reduction of size in restrictor plates from 29/32 inches to 57/64 which will give the drivers almost 10 more horsepower. Everything else will be relatively the same last season which should give you a head start on who to key on.
Practices will mean very little to the equation after they’ve run, so there is nothing wrong with firing away on five or six drivers right now before the prices change. Here’s a look at a few quality candidates to win using the best price offered between the Westgate and MGM.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1 MGM): Not only does he have plate race success with 10 career wins, but he’s also been the best on them over the past two seasons with three wins, including two at Daytona, and has led a series high 367 laps. He won the 2004 and 2014 Daytona 500.
Denny Hamlin (15/1 Westgate): He’s been sensational at Daytona over the past two seasons with finishes of second, sixth, fourth and third. He grabbed his first career plate win at Talladega in 2014 and has proven to be one of the best in the draft. In the eight plate races over the past two seasons, only Earnhardt Jr.’s 9.88 average finish is better than Hamlin’s 10th-place average.
Joey Logano (10/1 MGM & Westgate): Earnhardt Jr. won a race at Daytona and Talladega last season and so did Logano, which were the first two plate wins of his career. The kid just continues to grow each year as a driver and that could be bad news for the rest of the field in 2016. The last back-to-back Daytona 500 winner was Sterling Marlin in 1995.
Jimmie Johnson (7/1 MGM & Westgate): Only Earnhardt Jr. has led more laps than Johnson (259) in plate races over the past two seasons. Last season he finished fifth and second in the two Daytona races. Overall, he’s a three-time winner including a sweep of the 2013 season.
Kevin Harvick (10/1 Westgate): He’s a two-time winner at Daytona and almost won his third last season finishing second to Logano. In the summer race he finished fifth. His 12.1 average finish in the past eight plate races is third-best.
A few longshots to consider are Austin Dillon at 40-to-1, Casey Mears at 100-to-1 and Tony Stewart at 30-to-1 in his farewell Daytona 500. This will be Stewart’s last season to finally capture a Daytona 500 win. He has three wins at Daytona, but all came during the summer.
We'll have more on the Daytona 500 all February long. So until then, here's a look at all the driver odds currently posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
Daytona 500 betting odds
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KYLE BUSCH 15
JOEY LOGANO 10
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7
MATT KENSETH 12
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
KURT BUSCH 15
CARL EDWARDS 15
MARTIN TRUEX JR 18
DENNY HAMLIN 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 5
KASEY KAHNE 15
KYLE LARSON 40
CHASE ELLIOTT 25
RYAN BLANEY 40
JAMIE McMURRAY 40
TONY STEWART 30
AUSTIN DILLON 40
CLINT BOWYER 40
RYAN NEWMAN 40
GREG BIFFLE 40
PAUL MENARD 50
ARIC ALMIROLA 50
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 60
AJ ALLMENDINGER 80
DANICA PATRICK 60
TREVOR BAYNE 60
CASEY MEARS 100
MICHAEL WALTRIP 100
FIELD 40
Sprint Cup Series begins in Daytona on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Sprint Cup Series drivers will head to Florida for the iconic Daytona 500 on Sunday. This is the first official race of the 2016 season and the drivers will be more than ready to go at Daytona International Speedway. This course is 2.5 miles long and there are three drivers that will be itching to get this thing started. Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have all won this race twice in their careers. Kenseth won in 2009 and 2012, Johnson won in 2006 and 2013 and Earnhardt Jr. won in 2004 and 2014. Joey Logano was the winner in 2015 and he’ll be hoping to join that list of two-time winners on Sunday. Another guy who will definitely be hoping to notch his second victory is Kevin Harvick, who last won this race in 2007. With that being said, let’s now take a look at who might be winning the first race of the season come Sunday:
Drivers to Watch
Joey Logano (9-to-1) - Joey Logano was the Sprint Cup champion in 2015 and he got off to a solid start to the season this year. Logano was excellent in the exhibition race last weekend, finishing in second place at the Sprint Unlimited. There is no reason to believe that Logano won’t be in serious contention to win this race on Sunday. He was the winner at the Daytona 500 in 2015 and at 9-to-1, he’s a guy that is worth putting several units on.
Brad Keselowski (12-to-1) - Brad Keselowski had a very good season a year ago, finishing with nine top-fives and one victory. Keselowski also has had some success at Daytona in his career. Prior to finishing a lousy 41st in 2015, Keselowski had finished in the top-five at back-to-back races here. He could easily break through and win on Sunday and that is why putting a few units on him at 12-to-1 could end up paying off huge.
Chase Elliot (14-to-1) - Chase Elliot will be the new #24 driver in the Sprint Cup series and he has some serious hype coming into the season. Elliot was the first rookie in the history of the sport to win a national series championship when he won the Nationwide Series in 2014. He’s also going to be coming into this race in the top spot after winning the pole. He is the youngest driver to ever be the pole-sitter and at 14-to-1, he’s a good choice to continue to make headlines by winning on Sunday.
Ryan Newman (40-to-1) - There aren’t many dark horse options in the field that really stick out, but Newman is getting some pretty favorable odds at 40-to-1. Newman has won this race before, as he was victorious in 2008 and it’s more than possible that he can win it again this year. He was solid in 2015, finishing with five top-fives on the season. He did not, however, win any races. He’ll be eager to win again and there’s a good shot that it’s on Sunday.
Daytona 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Only four drivers have won the Daytona 500 after winning the Sprint Unlimited the week prior. No Toyota has ever won the Daytona 500 and Joe Gibbs Racing hasn't won the Daytona 500 since Dale Jarrett sailed through to the 1993 win in a Chevrolet with his dad cheering in the broadcast booth.
However, like I say four times a year in the restrictor-plate races, anything can happen. And in the case of choosing Denny Hamlin to win the 58th running of the Daytona 500 on Sunday, there's a lot of logical backing involved besides stats and trends, but he's got those too.
The first thing to review in Hamlin's case is what happened Saturday in the Sprint Unlimited where he was one of only three drivers to lead a lap. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards, helped push Hamlin to the front and then no one could pass him. Hamlin has become a very accomplished plate racer the past three years, which includes a Talladega win. He's won the Sprint Unlimited three times at Daytona, but a points-paying race win there has eluded him.
“We have certainly shown that we have the speed in the car that we need to win at Daytona," Hamlin said. "It’s just a matter of putting it all together in the big race on Sunday. We have put ourselves in position to win the Daytona 500 the last few years, but it hasn’t all come together yet. There are so many other variables involved that need to go your way to win the 500, and hopefully they will come together for our FedEx team this weekend."
Some of those variables involve having all his teammates ready to push him and also getting a few of his top competitors to have some poor luck with a short day. Saturday night he got a little both with his teammates hanging around and also having the favorites of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson get involved in wrecks.
Over the past four Daytona races, Hamlin has finished sixth or better for a 3.75 average finish. His team is strong, he's trending upward and he's also in a contract year. He's got all the motivation needed to win and the means to do it within the JGR stable. Even at 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,0000), down from 15/1 before Saturday's win, Hamlin still presents value.
If you don't want to go with a driver like Hamlin that has never won, then taking Joey Logano at 8/1 odds should be your guy. We haven't seen back-to-back Daytona 500 winners since Sterling Marlin in 1995, but between winning two of the four plate races last season and looking so strong Saturday night, he's got a great shot to accomplish the feat. I loved the way he and Penske teammate Brad Keselowski worked in the draft Saturday and when adding Ryan Blaney to the mix -- the No. 21 has an affiliation with Penske, they look just as fierce as the JGR Toyota's. That trio of Fords, with the new body package other manufacturers didn't get, were 1-2-3 while running the draft together in the second Daytona 500 practice session.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a four time winner at Daytona, including the 2004 and 2014 Daytona 500 and comes in as the 6/1 favorite at most Las Vegas sports books. He won two of the four plate races Logano didn't win last season and has won three of the past eight plate races overall. He has the advantage of being able to draft with teammate Jimmie Johnson, who also has two Daytona 500 wins. Hendrick Motorsports has won eight Daytona 500's as an organization.
There really is no bad bet to be made because you can make a case for up to 38 drivers to win. The cars are as equal as you'll see in any race all season. In the Las Vegas race in two weeks, there will be only 12 drivers that have a legitimate chance to win and Danica Patrick will have odds at around 500/1 odds. For Sunday's race she's 80/1.
A case can be made for taking a long shot in the plate races because we've seen it happen often lately between the races at Talladega and Daytona. In 2011 Trevor Bayne became the youngest driver at 20 years old to win the Daytona 500 and he was at 100/1. Aric Almirola won a rain shortened race in the summer of 2014 at Daytona and paid out at 50/1 odds. Yes, you cash with a long shot at Daytona like no where else.
After watching the Unlimited, I was pumped and felt the racing was good. I thought the added 10 horsepower made a bigger impact than I first expected. But was I just disillusioned simply because I was starved for some NASCAR racing after not seeing anything since November? When I looked at the box score, I saw that 23 of 25 cars had damage. There was only three drivers to lead a lap and there were seven cautions. Maybe the racing wasn't all that good, and I'm not the type of fan that likes wrecks.
If Sunday's race mimics what happened Saturday, this thing is going to be wild -- maybe too wild. The tough thing about playing the favorites in plate races is that your driver is more apt to be involved in a wreck than a place like Las Vegas. You've got the cars bunched up all together going side-by-side -- sometimes three wide -- for the entire race. When one driver makes an error, the wreck usually takes out a half-dozen innocent drivers. Nothing seems worse than having a driver you bet get caught up in that mess, because you knew the big one was coming and you knew betting plate races was a risky venture.
The long shots I like Sunday start with the Ganassi drivers of Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson -- each at 30/1, who did great working together Saturday night. McMurray has two wins at Daytona, including the 2010 Daytona 500. His best success has come in plate races with four of his seven career wins coming on them.
The other long shots I have taken a serious look at is the Richard Childress Racing drivers of Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman and Paul Menard.
Because the driver ratings in plate races are so diluted due to the volatile nature of the tight racing, there rarely is any value betting driver match-ups, but if you find plus-money +110 or higher on anyone, it's not a bad move.
Good luck, enjoy the racing and let's bring Joe Gibbs another trophy.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1)
NASCAR betting doesn't get any bigger and better than the Daytona 500
By Greg Engle
CupScene.com
You may know nothing about the world of NASCAR. You may not follow it or hear much about it. But when a sport starts its season with its version of the Super Bowl, it’s hard to ignore it.
For those who like to bet on sports, NASCAR gives another opportunity to play the odds, wager a few bucks and have a little fun. So how do you bet on NASCAR? Let us count the ways.
Like any sport, there is a winner and loser. However there are a total of 40 entries – so that means 39 losers. Every driver has a team behind them: engine builders, fabricators, pit crew. In essence then, instead of two teams or two single players contesting each other like other sports, you have 40 teams all going for one single win.
But wagers can also be put down on such things as leading the most laps, highest finisher, Over/Under offerings, head-to-head and even who will finish in the Top 3. NASCAR props allow you to bet on several elements of a race.
Now that we know what we can bet on, let’s turn our attention to figuring out who has the best chances of winning this year’s Daytona 500 and the long NASCAR Sprint Cup season ahead.
Drivers to watch
You can bet on the most obvious - who will win the Daytona 500? Nothing is a certainty, but we can combine several stats to choose the drivers who have the best chance for victory. Below is the Top 5 along with their outright odds.
The Driver Rating is a number NASCAR figures using several stats at a particular track, this week for Daytona. They combine such things as average finish, laps led and average green flag speed to come up with a Driver Rating for active drivers in the last 22 races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5/1) is always a favorite at a restrictor plate track (which Daytona is). He has four wins here, which is the most of any active driver (he is tied with Tony Stewart, who will miss this race due to an injury). NASCAR’s most popular driver has a driver rating of 93.7 - second best. He won at Daytona last July, was third in this race last year and was a Daytona 500 champion in 2014. Earnhardt is probably the safest bet in the field.
Jimmie Johnson (8/1) didn’t have the 2015 season he wanted. He is, however, a two-time Daytona 500 champion and has a July win here in 2013. He was fifth at Daytona last year after leading the second most laps. He has the fifth best driver rating, 89.2 and is always a threat to run up front.
Kyle Busch (12/1) isn’t the odds on favorite, but he’s the defending series champion and has the highest driver rating 94.4. He does have a win at Daytona in July of 2008 and showed the type of maturity it takes to get that first Daytona 500 win throughout last season. He missed the Great American Race last February after suffering horrible injuries in a race the day before, so Busch might have a little extra motivation to win in 2016.
Matt Kenseth (12/1) is a two-time Daytona 500 champion (2009, 2012) and has the fourth best driver rating, 89.5. He suffered mechanical issues in this race last year but was one of the fastest cars all year. Kenseth could be the one to beat Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (14/1) is a long shot. He’s never scored a Sprint Cup points win at Daytona, but does have the sixth best driver rating there (88.7) and after the show he put on last Saturday, when he stormed to victory in the Sprint Unlimited exhibition race - his second win in the non-points race - Hamlin shouldn’t be ignored.
Sprint Cup futures
Futures refer to the ultimate winner at the end of a very long season, when they crown a Sprint Cup champion. As mentioned, there are a lot of variables, and also several drivers that should at least be in the title mix come the final race at Homestead in November.
Chief among them is Matt Kenseth (8/1 to win Sprint Cup Championship). Had it not been for controversy with Joey Logano, Kenseth was poised to win it all. Speaking of Logano (6/1), he too should be in contention at the end of the season as well as 2014 champion Kevin Harvick (5/1), who looked strong all season long.
Props
Props are probably the hardest to figure out. However, by using the driver ratings, you can usually narrow down the choices. Use them to figure out the head-to-head and other areas such as who will lead the most laps.
Capping car manufacturers can give you an inside edge at breaking down props. When it comes to car makes, forget about Toyota, one of three automakers in the sport. Toyota has never won a Daytona 500 and has been victorious in only one points-paying race here, coming in July 2008. It’s been all Chevy and Ford at Daytona in the past 11 years (Dodge won in 2008 but no longer competes in NASCAR) with Chevy winning five and Ford also taking five checkered flags, including Logano last season.
Where a driver starts can help determine where they finish. Nine Daytona 500 winners have started from the pole followed by the No. 2 and No. 4 spot on the grid, both with seven winners apiece. From there, both No. 7 and No. 9 starting spots have five winners each. Last year's winner started No. 5, while the pole sitter - Jeff Gordon - finished 33rd.
Being a restrictor-plate track, though, starting up front isn’t always a winning formula. Five winners have started deeper then 31st. Chase Elliot will start on the pole Sunday - the youngest pole sitter in Daytona history. Keep in mind that the last time a driver won from the pole was in 1999, when Gordon accomplished that flag-to-flag feat.
As well, certain drivers thrive on certain course types, such as super speedways, short track ovals, and road courses. Recognizing a driver’s strength is a power handicapping tool when betting NASCAR props.
Daytona 500 Prop Bets and Picks
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
The Daytona 500 is NASCAR's Super Bowl. So naturally, we need some prop bets to go with it.
The Linemakers' Micah Roberts has a few plays on prop bets. Get them below, as well as William Hill's full list.
How about Chase Elliott?
William Hill has his finish position set at 15.5 and paired in a driver matchup with Martin Truex Jr. (-125). It’s a plate race so you can never say never, just like when Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500 to be the youngest ever to do so. Elliott became the youngest ever sit be a Daytona pole sitter, but it would be a complete shocker if he ran in the top-10 most of the race. Look for a bit of a learning curve making over 15.5 a decent play and lay -125 with Truex Jr. for the better finish.
Finishing position picks:
Kevin Harvick under 9.5 (EV), Hamlin under 10.5 (-120), Danica Patrick over 20.5 (-110).
How will the pace of the race be?
Based the Sprint Unlimited, when there were only three lap leaders and seven cautions in 79 laps of racing, there could be some of the same Sunday with drivers leading for long stretches in clean air once. It’s really hard to pass, especially with someone skilled like a Hamlin, Earnhardt Jr. or Harvick taking the point. So from that logic, staying under 14.5 drivers to lead a lap is attractive. Last years Daytona 500 had 12 different lap leaders.
Matchups
Dale Earnhardt Jr. -140
Kevin Harvick +120
Jimmie Johnson -120
Kyle Busch Even
Joey Logano -105
Matt Kenseth -115
Brad Keselowski +110
Denny Hamlin -130
Kurt Busch Even
Carl Edwards -120
Martin Truex Jr. -125
Chase Elliot +105
Kyle Larson -115
Kasey Kahne -105
Jamie McMurray -110
Ryan Newman -110
Greg Biffle -110
Clint Bowyer -110
Austin Dillon -120
Ryan Blaney Even
Paul Menard -130
Casey Mears +110
Aric Almirola -105
AJ Allmendinger -115
Danica Patrick -110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -110
Ty Dillon -115
Trevor Bayne -105
Michael Waltrip -115
Chris Buescher -105
Which manufacturer will win Daytona 500?
Chevy -150
Toyota 13-5
Ford 4-1
Finishing positions
Dale Earnhardt Jr 8.5
Jimmie Johnson 9.5
Kevin Harvick 9.5
Kyle Busch 10.5
Joey Logano 10.5
Matt Kenseth 10.5
Denny Hamlin 10.5
Brad Keselowski 11.5
Carl Edwards 12.5
Kurt Busch 14.5
Chase Elliot 15.5
Danica Patrick 20.5
Over/unders
Number of drivers on lead lap at finish 23.5
Average speed 153.5 mph
Most laps led by any driver 60.5
Total cautions 7.5
Drivers not completing 100 laps 3.5
How many drivers will lead a lap? 14.5
Number of Chevy’s in top 10 at finish 5.5
Number of winning car
1-19 (+105)
20-98 (-125)