Dickies 500 News and Notes

Odds and Ends - Texas
By VI News

Texas Motor Speedway Data

Race #: 34 of 36 (11-8-09)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
Race Length: 501 miles
# Banking/corners: 24 degrees
# Banking/straights: 5 degrees
# Frontstretch: 2,250 feet
# Backstretch: 1,330 feet

Driver Rating at Texas

Matt Kenseth 105.8
Tony Stewart 105.4
Jimmie Johnson 103.8
Carl Edwards 102.4
Greg Biffle 95.7
Denny Hamlin 95.2
Kyle Busch 94.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 94.1
Jeff Gordon 92.2
Kurt Busch 89.3

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Texas.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (188.469 mph, 28.652 secs.)
2008 race winner: Carl Edwards, 144.219 mph, 11-2-08)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (196.235 mph, 27.518 seconds, 11-3-06)
Track race record: Carl Edwards (151.055 mph, 11-6-05)

Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, depending on fuel mileage.

Dickies 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Race No. 34 of 36 on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule takes us to Texas where we can get back some normal racing instead of the garbage witnessed last week at Talladega. More on that later.

The best thing about Texas is that you can use a wealth of data from the long season to help handicap for this race. You have results from the similar sister-tracks of Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, and the spring Texas race to go off of. Most of those tracks are all banked about the same and are very similar despite some unique traits of their own.

The most recent race run should get higher regards than the one ran earlier. If we sift through all the results I would pay more attention to the Charlotte race from a few weeks ago more than I would the March Vegas race, but necessarily more than the April Texas race.

Take Jeff Gordon for example. He won the first Texas race this season and has finished well at every one of the sister-tracks. His worse finish was at Charlotte in May when he finished 14th, but that was in part because of rain ending the race. Gordon was in that race as a strong contender to win. Even if we use that finish, Gordon’s average finish on the combined tracks is 5.8.

Jimmie Johnson almost went the entire season without winning on one of these type of tracks, which would have been a major shock because he has dominated on them since he came into the series. No one has been better. He didn’t get the win until a few weeks ago at Charlotte. In the five previous 1.5-mile high-banked races he had struggled, at least by his standards. He did finish second in Texas, but that was the only top-5.

Johnson will be bringing his chassis that he won at Dover with. His backup chassis will be the one he won with at Charlotte. He’s got a nice lead in points and we can expect him to let it all hang out, unlike last week. Knowing Johnson’s style, he’d love nothing more than to win his fourth title in a row in style.

Matt Kenseth hasn’t been good at too many places other than the first two stops of the season he won -- remember the Daytona 500 winner. Yeah, I know, it seems like two years ago since then. Anyway, Kenseth falls into that category of a driver that should do well based on his last race on these type of tracks and Texas itself.

Last month at Charlotte, Kenseth gave everything he had to beat Johnson but had to settle for second. In one of his rare six top-5 finishes on the year, Kenseth was able to finish fifth in the April Texas race. This is one driver that may slip under the Sports Books radar and present great value in all betting propositions.

Kasey Kahne started out slow, but was still respectable on these type of tracks at the beginning of the season. He really came on late with a win at Atlanta in September and then came back with a strong third in Charlotte. The former Texas winner looks like a top contender to win again this week.

Even though the 1.5-mile high banks appear to be the same as results show, Kahne has some particulars that are different to the driver.

"Getting into Turn One can be tricky,” Kahne said. “It is real flat and then as you are coming into the corner, you get into the banking. It’s almost like you fall into the corner at 190 miles per hour. Turn Three is similar but it is not as drastic. It is a difficult place to get your car to handle the way you want. It is a great track, but you really need your car to handle well on entry to be competitive."

This type of track usually doesn’t allow for many surprises, at least to the magnitude we saw the with the last two Talladega winners of Brad Keselowski and Jamie McMurray winning.

Speaking of Keselowski, he’ll be getting his first run with his new job in 2010 running for Penske Racing in the No. 12 Dodge. He’ll be running the final three races this season. Unlike David Stremme, Keselowski will be getting brand new equipment beginning this week.

TOP 5 Finish prediction:

1) #9 Kasey Kahne (12/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (20/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)

Last weeks race at Talladega was going so well with all kinds of lead changes and drivers shuffling from way back to the front in one or two laps. In was an exciting race, at least until the end.

In was supposed to be a Green-White-Checkers end, but it didn’t seem like they got to the White flag when all the action started. The caution flag came out a little too late and it seemed like they were in a hurry to call the thing to avoid any more delays, and wrecks, or at least that‘s the way I wanted to believe it.

In all NASCAR’s efforts since the Carl Edwards flip into the catch-fence at Talladega in the spring to avoid those type of occurrences, they threw gasoline on the fire. It seems to me that the folks in NASCAR may want to do a better job a separating the cars more, because that seems to be where the big accidents always come from and the flipping of cars begin with.

The answer isn’t making the hole in the restrictor plate smaller to slow the fuel down because all that does is make the cars take longer to get up to full speed and then once the drafting starts, they go about 10 to 15 miles an hour faster.

If they want to solve the problem, the best way may be to go with a smaller engine that still has some response to the throttle and use some skinnier tires. If drivers start wrecking because they can’t grip, they’ll learn to control their throttle more instead of the full out mash on the gas they do now.

The late Dale Earnhardt used to always complain about not having control over his throttle in plate races, even after he’d won dozens of times in plate races.

Picture going uphill to an expressway driving a Yugo, trying to get up to speed, but getting no response as you continue to chug at 25 mph.

NASCAR has put these drivers in this position and they’re not happy about it. Poor Ryan Newman had to sit crammed in flattened car for 20 minutes until they opened his car like a can of sardines to get him out and it was a direct result of what NASCAR has done.

For my own benefit, If I’m going to spend the bulk of my Sunday morning watching a race that is competing for air-time with my previously unbeaten Denver Broncos, than I at least want to see a finish. Don’t give me all the fun and a frills of what looks to be great racing and then give me an ending like Geraldo’s search for Al Capone’s Lost Vault.

A glance at the 12 drivers in the Chase

A glance at the 12 drivers competing in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup championship heading into this weekend's race at Texas Motor Speedway (in order of points):

DRIVER: Jimmie Johnson

CHASE POINTS: first, 6,248

CAR: No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 12

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 8.5 (won in 2007)

LAST WEEK: Signs you're having a magical year: your strategy backfires and you spend the first 180 laps at Talladega at the back of the pack. A red flag, a brilliant fuel call and boom, you're sixth. This is Johnson's chase to lose. Again.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I am feeling much better about things,'' Johnson said. ``I was so concerned about this race. I thought I was going to lose points with about three or four to go. So to have it turn around and lead with points over the guys, I didn't expect it.''

DRIVER: Mark Martin

CHASE POINTS: second, -184

CAR: No. 5 Carquest/Kellogg's Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 17

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 13.8 (won in 1998)

LAST WEEK: Became a part of the carnage at Talladega, finishing 28th while getting collected in a major wreck that left his car a mangled mess.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I don't know what it looked like,'' Martin said. ``It looked pretty exciting from my view point. I don't have a clue. I don't know what happened out there.''

DRIVER: Jeff Gordon

CHASE POINTS: third, -192

CAR: No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet

TEAM: Hendrick Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 17

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 15.2 (won in 2009)

LAST WEEK: Ran near the front at Talladega before having a fuel problem during a red flag following Ryan Newman's accident and finished 20th as part of the melee at the end.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I certainly didn't think we were going to run out right then, but I guess I'm kind of glad we ran out when we did because we were at least able to get back out there and destroy our car,'' Gordon said.

DRIVER: Juan Pablo Montoya

CHASE POINTS: fourth, -239

CAR: No. 42 Target Chevrolet

TEAM: Earnhardt Ganassi Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 5

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 20.4 (best finish: seventh in 2009)

LAST WEEK: Finished 19th at Talladega, stuck somewhere in the middle of the chaos at the end.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I wanted to run up front, but you couldn't do anything,'' Montoya said.

DRIVER: Tony Stewart

CHASE POINTS: fifth, -279

CAR: No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart/Haas Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 15

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 12.6 (won in 2006)

LAST WEEK: Received an ill-timed nudge from teammate Ryan Newman with five laps to go, sending Newman on a wild ride down the backstretch and Stewart into the wall. He finished 35th.

CHASE CHATTER: ``I'm just glad (Newman) is all right,'' Stewart said. ``He'll be sore, for sure, but he's OK.''

DRIVER: Kurt Busch

CHASE POINTS: sixth, -312

CAR: No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge

TEAM: Penske Racing

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 13

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 14.8 (best finish: fourth in 2001)

LAST WEEK: Collected in a crash a couple laps from the finish, only question now is whether crew chief Pat Tryson will finish out the season in the box. Tryson is heading to Michael Waltrip Racing next year.

CHASE CHATTER: ``It was the most emotional highs and lows that I've experienced since I've been racing here at Talladega,'' he said.

DRIVER: Greg Biffle

CHASE POINTS: seventh, -340

CAR: No. 16 3M Scotch Brand Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 1

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 11

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 22.1 (won in 2005)

LAST WEEK: One of the few Chasers to emerge from Talladega unscathed, Biffle was a strong fourth behind winner Jamie McMurray.

CHASE CHATTER: ``It was a good run,'' Biffle said. ``I'm glad we avoided the big wreck.''

DRIVER: Ryan Newman

CHASE POINTS: eighth, -402

CAR: No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet

TEAM: Stewart/Haas Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 1

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 12

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 23.2 (won in 2003)

LAST WEEK: Miraculously escaped a late-race crash unhurt after flying through the air, landing on Kevin Harvick's car then sliding the roof into turn three and flipping several times. Had to be cut out of his car after finishing 36th.

CHASE CHATTER: ``When I hit the roll cage and landed on my head I was a little worried and I was happy to be able to walk out of that in a roundabout way,'' Newman said.

DRIVER: Kasey Kahne

CHASE POINTS: ninth -414

CAR: No. 9 Budweiser Dodge

TEAM: Richard Petty Motorsports

POSITION CHANGE: Plus 2

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 10

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 21.9 (won in 2006)

LAST WEEK: Another lap and Kahne might have chased down Jamie McMurray. Still, was remarkably competitive after a series of early race problems had him chasing the field.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We just kind of shot up through there, had great track position on that restart and ran second,'' Kahne said.''

DRIVER: Carl Edwards

CHASE POINTS: 10th, -437

CAR: No. 99 Aflac Ford

TEAM: Roush Fenway Racing

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 9

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 13.4 (won three times)

LAST WEEK: Got his turn at Talladega, leading a few laps but didn't have enough time or room at the end to do better than 14th.

CHASE CHATTER: ``My car just wasn't as fast as it needed to be,'' Edwards said. ``We were lucky to avoid those wrecks at the end and get out of here in one piece.''

DRIVER: Denny Hamlin

CHASE POINTS: 11th, -448

CAR: No. 11 FedEx Toyota

TEAM: Joe Gibbs Racing

POSITION CHANGE: Minus 2

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 8

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 11.6 (best finish: fourth in 2006)

LAST WEEK: Roller coaster Chase continued when his engine blew at Talladega, his third finish of 30th or worse in his last four races.

CHASE CHATTER: ``Hopefully it will make our engine department stronger and our team stronger and when we setup ourselves for a championship next year, we won't have mechanical issues and then we'll be able to fight them at the end,'' Hamlin said.

DRIVER: Brian Vickers

CHASE POINTS: 12th, -556

CAR: No. 83 Red Bull Toyota

TEAM: Red Bull Racing

POSITION CHANGE: None

CAREER TEXAS STARTS: 10

AVERAGE TEXAS FINISH: 22.2 (best finish: 12th in 2004)

LAST WEEK: Mixed it up as usual at Talladega, giving Kahne a much-appreciated bump at times before finishing 13th and was hardly impressed with the bump-drafting ban in the corners.

CHASE CHATTER: ``We crashed just as much today on the straightaway as we've ever done and the new rule was in place,'' Vickers said. ``I don't know what the intent was.''

Driver Handicaps: Texas
Racingone.com

This weekend the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday's Dickies 500. To help you make your fantasy racing picks, RacingOne brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for the 334-lap event.

Who's HOT at Texas
• Carl Edwards leads all drivers in average finish (4.0) and wins (2) with the COT.
• Jimmie Johnson, the 2007 event winner, has a 5.0 average finish in his last four starts.
• Jeff Gordon is coming off his first win at the track and leads all drivers with a 4.9 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
• Matt Kenseth, who won in 2003, has finished ninth or better in seven of the last eight races.
• Mark Martin, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart and Jeff Burton each have average finishes of 9.3 or better in the three races with the COT.
• Greg Biffle, who led 93 laps in the spring, is coming off consecutive top fives.

Keep an Eye on at Texas
• Kasey Kahne has recorded an average finish of 7.1 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
• Juan Pablo Montoya will be driving the best chassis in the EGR stable.
• Denny Hamlin will drive the same car that led 54 laps at Lowe's last month before engine problems.
• Clint Bowyer has recorded two top 10s and has led 36 laps with the COT at Texas.
• David Reutimann has the fourth-best average finish (10.9) on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will pilot the same car that led 41 laps at Kansas before suffering an engine failure.
• Kurt Busch finished eighth in the spring at Texas and has led 240 laps on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

Track Performers
Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with a 4.9 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009. Gordon won at Texas Motor Speedway in April for the first time after leading 105 laps. Kasey Kahne, who won in Spetember at Atlanta, is the only other driver with an average finish (7.1) of 10.0 of better. Tony Stewart (10.8) is third, with May Lowe's winner David Reutimann (10.3) fourth, and October Lowe's winner Jimmie Johnson (12.8) rounding out the top five. Gordon, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Mark Martin and Kurt Busch are the only drivers that have led more than 200 laps on 1.5-mile tracks. Johnson leads all drivers with 330 laps led. Based off 1.5-mile tracks in 2009: Las Vegas, Atlanta (1.54-mile), Texas, Lowe's, Chicago and Kansas.

RacingOne Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kasey Kahne
Pete Pistone: Matt Kenseth
Rachael West: Mark Martin

Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Texas Motor Speedway unless noted)

1. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of this event in 2007; Has an 8.5 average finish in 12 starts; Finished second in April; Has led 3300 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 552) that won at Dover in September.

2. Mark Martin: Finished sixth in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in April; Finish was one of nine top 10s; Won the 1998 race with Roush Racing; Has led 220 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 555) in the Dickies 500.

3. Jeff Gordon: Coming off first win in 17 starts; Led 105 laps in April; Leads all drivers with a 4.9 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Finished second in this event last year.

4. Juan Pablo Montoya: Finished seventh in April for second top 10; Has a 20.4 average finish in five starts; Has a 15.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 819) that last finished third at Auto Club last month.

5. Tony Stewart: Finished fourth in first track start with Stewart-Haas in April; Posted one win and eight top 10s in previous 14 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Has recorded a 10.8 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

6. Kurt Busch: Has posted a 19.0 average finish in seven starts with Penske Racing; Finished eighth in the spring for third top 10 with the team; Has led 240 laps on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 702) in the Dickies 500.

7. Greg Biffle: Winner of the 2005 spring race; Led 93 laps and finished third in April for fourth top 10; Has led 247 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

8. Ryan Newman: Finished 15th in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing in April; Posted one win and three top 10s in previous 11 starts with Penske Racing; Has posted an average finish of 14.0 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 508) that finished ninth at Atlanta in September.

9. Kasey Kahne: Won the 2006 spring race from the pole; Has yet to finish in the top 15 in last six starts; Has led 130 laps and recorded an average finish of 7.1 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

10. Carl Edwards: Three-time winner; Leads all drivers with two wins and an average finish of 4.0 with the COT; Has posted a 16.8 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 587) that finished 15th at Richmond in September.

11. Denny Hamlin: Has an 11.6 average finish in eight starts; Finished 12th in April; Has led 78 laps and has posted an average finish of 14.5 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 256) that led 54 laps at Lowe's last month before engine problems.

12. Brian Vickers: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 10 starts; Has posted an average finish of 16.7 in the three starts with the COT; Has led 46 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

13. Kyle Busch: Has posted a 9.0 average finish in three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Four top-10 finishes in nine starts; Has led 250 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Dave Rogers will make debut as the No. 18 crew chief; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished 13th at Kansas last month.

14. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2002 race; Has finished ninth or better in seven of the last eight races; Has an 18.3 average finish and has led 102 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

15. Clint Bowyer: Last of three top 10s came in this event in 2008; Has a 16.4 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished sixth at Lowe's last month.

16. David Reutimann: Won the pole and led 40 laps en route to an 11th-place finish in April; Only top 10 in four starts came in this event last year; Has the fourth-best average finish (10.9) on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

17. Jeff Burton: Winner of the inaugural and 2007 spring race; Has posted five top 10s with Richard Childress Racing; Has led 61 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 289) in the Dickies 500.

18. Marcos Ambrose: Finished 41st in April after engine problems; Best finish (21st) in two starts came in this event last year; Has a 24.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

19. Joey Logano: Worst 1.5-mile speedway on the schedule based on his 35.0 average finish; Finished 30th in April; Has posted an average finish of 19.4 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 258) that finished 14th at Auto Club last month.

20. Casey Mears: Finished 21st in track debut with Richard Childress Racing in April; Four top 10s in 11 overall starts came with Ganassi Racing; Has posted an average finish of 21.9 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 248) that last finished 11th at Auto Club last month.

21. Kevin Harvick: Last of five top 10s (seventh) came in this event last year; Has posted an average finish of 18.4 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 285) that finished 10th at Martinsville last month.

22. Jamie McMurray: Last of six top 10s (third) came in this event last year; Has posted a 24.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that finished 28th at Dover in September.

23. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Won the 2000 race for first of seven top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Has one pole and an average finish of 17.3 in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Has led 47 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 556) that led 41 laps at Kansas before suffering an engine failure.

24. Martin Truex Jr.: Won the pole for this event in 2007; Last of four top 10s (eighth) came in this event last year; Has led 71 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 082) that finished sixth and led 61 laps at Darlington.

25. Elliott Sadler: Won the 2004 race with Yates Racing; Has yet to post a top 10 in six starts with Richard Petty Motorsports (Gillett Evernham); Has posted an average finish of 25.8 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

26. AJ Allmendinger: Has yet to finish in the top 20 in three starts; Will drive a Ford for the rest of the season; Has posted a 23.6 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

27. David Ragan: Has yet to post a top 10 in five starts; Best finish (11th) came in this event last year; Has posted a 29.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 615) that finished 35th at Kansas.

28. Reed Sorenson: Has yet to post a top 10 in seven starts; Finished 36th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in April.

29. Sam Hornish Jr.: Coming off best finish (17th) in three starts; Has posted a 27.1 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.

30. Bobby Labonte: Finished 40th in track debut with Hall of Fame Racing in April; Has yet to post a top 10 in last six starts; Finished in the top 10 in the first four events at the track with Joe Gibbs Racing; Scored two poles with JGR in 2003 and 2004.

Gordon grabs first pole of the season

Fort Worth, TX (Sports Network) - Jeff Gordon won his first pole since one year ago after posting the quickest lap in Friday's qualifying for the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Gordon, currently third in points, lapped the 1.5-mile oval at 191.117 m.p.h. (28.255 seconds) for his 68th career Sprint Cup Series pole, but his first since last year's fall race at Texas.

"What a lap," said Gordon, who has won a pole in 17 consecutive seasons. "I wasn't sure if it was good enough, but I'm sure proud it held up."

Gordon is one pole away from tying Cale Yarborough for third on the all-time pole winners list. He also is one victory away from equaling Yarborough for fifth on the all-time race winners chart. Gordon's 82nd and most recent Cup win came at Texas earlier this year.

"We have a lot of confidence, especially qualifying up front," Gordon added. "We got a lot of work ahead of us, and we'll be going to work [Saturday]."

Kasey Kahne will start alongside Gordon on the front row after turning a lap at 190.975 m.p.h.

"It was a really good lap," Kahne said. "Everything was perfect there. I felt like I was really quick in [turns] one and two and might of given up just a touch in turns three and four."

Kurt Busch qualified third, followed by Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch.

Carl Edwards, the defending race winner, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Clint Bowyer completed the top-10.

Jimmie Johnson will start 12th. Johnson, who is looking to win his unprecedented fourth straight Cup championship, holds a 184-point lead over Martin and a 192-point advantage over Gordon with three races remaining.

Brad Keselowski qualified 35th in his first start as driver of the No.12 Dodge for Penske Racing. Keselowski is replacing David Stremme in the final three races before taking over driving duties in the Penske car full-time next season.

Tony Raines, Dave Blaney, Max Papis and Mike Bliss failed to qualify.

Sunday's 500-mile race is scheduled to start just after 3:15 p.m. (et).

Dickies 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard

Jimmie Johnson somehow avoided the big one last week at Talladega and finished an improbable sixth to extend his Sprint Cup lead to an insurmountable 184 points (the largest lead ever in the Chase format since 2004) with three races remaining in the Chase as NASCAR heads down to Fort Worth and Texas Motor Speedway for the Dickies 500 this Sunday afternoon at 3:30.

Who will win the 2009 Dickies 500?

Johnson could actually take Sunday off and still lead the Chase. If Johnson can finish the next three races in 10th place or better then he'll win another championship. This will cash my 7/2 futures ticket I advised in my 2009 season preview I wrote for Doc's Sports in February. Chances are slim that Johnson, the best active driver in NASCAR, will blow the lead for his fourth consecutive Sprint Cup championship.

Even a sweep at Texas would not help teammate Jeff Gordon out too much. Perhaps it would only help to regain second place from his other teammate, Mark Martin. Johnson would have to record a DNF or finish 15th on the grid, at the very least, to help them close the gap in the remaining two Chase races. It is highly unlikely that this happens; even if Gordon wins he'll have a hard time out-pacing Johnson and making up a fraction of the 192 points that he is behind.

Gordon has notched seven top-five and nine top-10 finishes in 17 starts at TMS.However, considering that five of the top-10s have come in the last six races, it makes Gordon a good play on Sunday. However, having picked Gordon to win the past two weeks in a row with no luck I am abandoning the No. 24 car this Sunday.

As the 2009 NASCAR season winds down I can see the Dickies 500 being won by a Chase drive. Other than McMurray's first win in 86 races last week at Talladega, all the Chase races have been won by Chase drivers. This Sunday I like Rousch Fenway Racing to dominate at Texas. Two drivers stand out in the RFR stable: Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle.

If you remember in April's race Biffle led for 93 laps until a lug-nut issue in the pits cost him the victory. Even then he almost won the race. After a late-race, 11th-place restart he moved up eight positions to finish the Samsung 500 in third place. This week he arrives at Texas fresh off a fourth-place finish at Talladega, which moved him up to seventh-place overall in the standings. This sounds great until you see that Biffle has to make up 340 points to win the Sprint Cup this year -- that won't happen. However, Biffle has won at TMS and also has three top-five finishes. Of those three top-fives Biffle finished fifth last November and third in April. I think he improves to first on Sunday.

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (12/1)

2009 Dickies 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In the Samsung 500 in April Rousch Fenway Racing's Matt Kenseth led at TMS for 55 laps and ultimately finished fifth in the Race. This came on the heels of two consecutive wins a month earlier. It looked like Kenseth would contend for the Sprint Cup title, or at the very least make the Chase. However, he had fortunes reversed. He lost his main sponsor, DeWalt Tools, and never really contended for the rest of the year and missed the Chase for the first time since its inception. His streak of bad luck continued last week at Talladega. He was in second place with four laps to go when Ryan Newman landed on his roof in a spectacular airborne wreck and with the three extra laps in the race Kenseth ran out of gas and finished 24. However, Kenseth sports a 105.8 driver ranking at Texas and has led for 497 laps more than any other active NASCAR driver. Kenseth also has one win, six top-five and nine top-10 finishes at the 1.5 mile Fort Worth track which makes him my long odds lucky dog play this Sunday.

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No 17, (14/1)

2009 Dickies 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

After watching Chad Knaus' strategy at TMS fail miserably, he showed once again why he is one of the greatest active crew chiefs in NASCAR. With 18 laps to go Johnson was 30th on the grid but with five laps to go Knaus ordered Johnson to pit for fuel. This move enabled Johnson to speed by the field as they ran out of gas at the end of the race and Johnson finished an unlikely sixth and virtually cemented another Sprint Cup championship. In the last nine races at TMS Johnson is rated the third-highest driver at 103.8 behind Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth. The truth is that Johnson almost can't race conservatively. Racing to avoid a wreck is not his style; especially in Texas where he has been nothing but money in the last six races at TMS where he has notched one win and three second-places. It is almost impossible to leave Johnson off your auto-racing investment ticket this Sunday.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (6/5)

Texas Practice Analysis
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

If Happy Hour is any indication of how the Texas NASCAR Sprint Cup race will be run on Sunday, then Jimmie Johnson is likely to widen his lead in the Chase for the Championship and quite possibly win his seventh race of the season.

Johnson laid down the fastest lap in Texas’ final practice session at 186.670 mph while running the second most laps with 49. After escaping Talladega with a gift sixth place finish while simply looking to just finish, Johnson looks like he wants to finish the last three races of the season with his guns-a-blazin’.

A great tool to use helping who may run better than others is referring to all the other similar track’s data using practices and what happened in the race itself. In Texas’ case, we have six similar instances this year of races run on 1.5 mile high banked tracks that include Las Vegas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and the first Texas race. The two most recent races run are the most likely indicators of the six as to how well Saturday’s practice times relate to a driver’s actual expected performance.

Without having to look at anything, Johnson stands out despite his practice times just because he’s, well, he’s Jimmie Johnson. Even though he won at Charlotte, the last like-track, he’s had his worst combined season of finishes on these type of tracks which should give hope to some of the others.

What may turn out to be more good news for the field is that Johnson is using that Charlotte rocket as his back-up car this week, opting to go with the chassis that won at Dover instead.

The driver that looked the most promising among those who haven’t done well on these type of tracks this season is Carl Edwards who had the second fastest lap in Happy Hour. He does have two top-5 finishes on these types this season, but Edwards just doesn’t get top-5’s, he gets wins on them and dominates, or at least he did.

Last season at Texas, he continued the Fenway-Roush dominance at Texas by sweeping the season giving him three career wins on the track. It also contributed to Roush’s beefy all-around performance at the track since it opened giving his stable seven wins in 17 races there.

These are supposed to be Roush-friendly tracks and always have been. Yet as the stars aligned in February, everything seemed to change. Roush ended up winning his first Daytona 500 ever, but in the process, sold his season’s soul to do it, or at least that how it looks.

Following Matt Kenseth’s two straight wins to start the season, it’s been one of the worst years ever for Roush.

There has never been a driver so dominant one year with nine wins, to the next having zero wins, while starting every event like Edwards is on the verge of. Greg Biffle won two races late last season and hasn’t won either. David Ragan has gone from barely missing the Chase last season to competing for 26th position in points with the likes of A.J. Allmendiger.

The lone bright spot since Kenseth’s run was the Jamie McMurray win last week, a driver who is in lame duck status. The taint on the bright spot was that the win gave no hope to a once strong program because it was in a restrictor plate race.

Somehow, some way, all things look to be better for Roush this week based on practice. Not only is Edwards second fastest, but Biffle came in fourth, Ragan sixth, McMurray 13th, and Kenseth 27th.

Kenseth’s times are always lousy and he never really puts any emphasis on them. What is encouraging was the nice run he had in the last Charlotte race where he finished second to Johnson as well as his fifth at Texas in the spring.

Denny Hamlin had the third fastest Happy Hour lap and the best average lap times while running his same chassis that led 54 laps at Charlotte last month before having engine problems.

Dale Earnhardt Jr looked solid in his final practice as he came in with the eighth best lap, but more encouraging for him is that he was fast in long runs having the best average lap times over the session. He ran 39 laps in his Kansas chassis, the one that led 41 laps before engine trouble, andd has a car capable of winning on race day; something we haven’t been able to say too often this season. It was one of his best practices of 2009.

David Reutimann got off to a blazing start in Saturday’s first practice session by running the overall fastest lap of 186.812 mph on his first of 22 laps run. His fast times should come as no surprise because he’s been doing it all season on the high-banked 1.5 mile tracks all season.

Not only has Reutimann had great practices for these races, but he’s also turned into success in the actual race. In the six races run on the like-facilities, Reutimann has captured three of his five top-5 finishes, including the only win of his career in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600.

Top Speeds - Saturday’s Final Practice (Happy Hour):
1) Jimmie Johnson 186.670 mph - AVG 49 laps @ 179.239
2) Carl Edwards 186.265 mph - AVG 34 laps @ 179.479
3) Denny Hamlin 185.810 mph - AVG 29 laps @ 179.604
4) Greg Biffle 185.503 mph - AVG 31 laps @ 178.739
5) Bill Elliott 184.894 mph - AVG 33 laps @ 177.448

Top Speeds - Saturday’s First Practice:
1) David Reutimann 186.812 mph - AVG 22 laps @ 181.520
2) Tony Stewart 186.716 mph - AVG 16 laps @ 182.866
3) Juan Pablo Montoya 186.265 mph - AVG 11 laps @ 181.639
4) Kyle Busch 186.252 mph - AVG 32 laps @ 180.853
5) Kurt Busch 185.714 mph - AVG 28 laps @ 180.381

Top 10 Rated Drivers at Texas following all qualifying and practice sessions. Ratings based on those practices, recent results on similar tracks, and current state of the team.
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Carl Edwards
3) Greg Biffle
4) Matt Kenseth
5) Denny Hamlin
6) Jeff Gordon
7) Dale Earnhardt Jr
8) Kyle Busch
9) Tony Stewart
10) Mark Martin