BRIAN GABRIELLE
Take Carl Edwards (+450), 1/6th unit. This Saturday, the Sprint Cup circuit heads to Darlington, which has a newly repaved racing surface that will make for a very different race at the Lady in Black. Without the gritty, sandpaper-like surface, worn-out tires won't be nearly as much of an issue as they used to be, and drivers won't have to reconcile themselves to being loose from the beginning of the race to the end. It's also going to be really, really fast. I think all of this benefits Edwards, who has dominated at the downforce tracks so far this season. Edwards was actually very strong at Darlington last year in the Car of Tomorrow, and even though he suffered a pit penalty, still came back and finished fifth. Expect him to be near the lead all night Saturday. Take Denny Hamlin (+600), 1/6th unit. Yes, we're going right back to Hamlin, even though he broke our hearts last weekend. Hamlin had the race's best car at Darlington last year before a bad late pit stop forced him into second place, but at least you know he's almost always in contention. Eventually his buzzard's luck has to turn around. Doesn't it? Take Jeff Gordon (+900), 1/6th unit. It's not often you get perhaps the sport's greatest driver ever at odds these long; Gordon is actually the seventh pick on the board this weekend. I guess I understand that; he hasn't won a race yet this year, and hasn't really been close to the dominating force he was in '07. The No. 24 currently sits 13th in points, and is therefore out of the Chase right now, but I don't expect that to last much longer. The way Gordon came back from starting 43rd last week, going a lap down, getting the Lucky Dog, and then gradually improving on his car until he finished ninth? That was impressive. Also impressive are the seven career wins he has at this venue, including last year, when his radiator was overheating and spewing water all over the place for the race's final laps, but somehow Gordon won anyway. I also like the fact that Gordon was strong at Vegas before wrecking late while trying to catch Edwards on a restart.
Dodge Challenger 500 PostQ
In his career at Darlington Raceway Jimmie Johnson has finished outside the top 10 just once. That stat as well as a 3rd place qualifying position and ranking in the top 10 on the Speed chart propels Johnson into the No. 1 spot on the PostQ forecast. Johnson has six consecutive top 10s at the track including a pair of wins. Johnson has been running extremely well before getting involved in a wreck at Richmond last weekend finishing in the 30th position. He will be looking to make those lost points up this Saturday night and you can bet the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet will be strong at Darlington.
It was difficult to watch Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kyle Busch get into it last weekend while racing for the lead with Junior coming out of the short end of the stick. Junior was poised to win his first race for Hendrick Motorsports and his first race in over two years. The wreck obviously took him out to contention for the win and he dropped back to the 15th position. Junior had a solid car in the previous race at Talladega before a late race wreck took him out of contention. Junior’s day will come and it could be at Darlington where he has never won a race. He ranks second on the PostQ forecast and looks to have a just as good of a car as his teammate Johnson. The Hendrick boys look good this weekend and Junior should be added to your roster.
Mark Martin headed into the Dodge Challenger 500 as the No. 1 driver but has fallen back to the 11th position due to a poor qualifying run in which he will start 27th and was in the same area in the practice sessions. Martin, however, is one of those savvy veterans that saves his stuff for race say and may have been a little nervous after wrecking his primary car in the Nationwide series. Martin may not be racing for the win as we expected earlier in the week but you can bet he will be near the front at the end of the race.
Last weeks winner, Clint Bowyer, was more in the right spot at the right time than anything else. Bowyer has been running well this season but he could take a hit in the point standings if his early week struggles remain. Bowyer qualified well back in the pack in the 38th position and was even worse on the Speed chart ranking 41st out of the 43 drivers. Bowyer did place 9th in this race last season but he qualified on the pole. It is likely he will be in for a long day – night – at Darlington. We recommend avoiding the #07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet for this race.
How long will it take before Matt Kenseth turns his season around? Well it sure doesn’t look like it will be this week as Kenseth has looked horrible through the practice sessions and qualifying. Kenseth qualified in the 34th position but even more concerning for the #17 DeWalt Ford team is that he ranks dead last on our Speed chart. He was never in the top 30 in any practice session and was dead last out of 45 cars in the 2nd practice session. Kenseth has posted back-to-back top 10 finishes at Darlington but he has just five total top 10 runs in 14 career starts with a 19th place average finish. It is doubtful he will be contending for a top 10 finish this Saturday night.
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