Duck Commander 500 Betting News and Notes

Texas Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

· Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.545, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.917, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.1, fourth-best
· 475 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.513, sixth-fastest
· 4992 Laps in the Top 15 (67.7), sixth-most
· 819 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 HScott Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Three top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 13.850, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.876, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.1, ninth-best
· 163 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.303, ninth-fastest
· 4007 Laps in the Top 15 (59.8), 11th-most
· 671 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· One win, nine top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.450, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.860, third-best
· Driver Rating of 101.9, third-best
· 364 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.808, second-fastest
· 4873 Laps in the Top 15 (72.7), fourth-most
· 712 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· One win, three top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.455, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.405, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.7, 11th-best
· 214 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.144, 12th-fastest
· 4379 Laps in the Top 15 (59.4), 12th-most
· 732 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.409, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.714, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.2, sixth-best
· 284 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.574, fourth-fastest
· 5458 Laps in the Top 15 (74.0), third-most
· 922 Quality Passes, series-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.500, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.471, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.4, fifth-best
· 375 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.567, fifth-fastest
· 5203 Laps in the Top 15 (70.6), fifth-most
· 818 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

· Two wins, five top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 12.150, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.756, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, seventh-best
· 182 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.296, 11th-fastest
· 4383 Laps in the Top 15 (65.4), seventh-most
· 837 Quality Passes, second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

· Six top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.818, third-best
· Average Running Position of 14.351, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 10th-best
· 176 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 172.433, 13th-fastest
· 4686 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6), 10th-most
· 825 Quality Passes, third-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· Six wins, 13 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.545, second-best
· Average Running Position of 10.318, second-best
· Driver Rating of 108.0, series-best
· 637 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.820, series-fastest
· 5660 Laps in the Top 15 (76.8), second-most
· 803 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.955, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.328, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.2, 13th-best
· 271 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.355, eighth-fastest
· 4724 Laps in the Top 15 (64.1), ninth-most
· 802 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

· Two wins, 13 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.190, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.363, series-best
· Driver Rating of 104.7, second-best
· 366 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.805, third-fastest
· 5629 Laps in the Top 15 (80.0), series-most
· 808 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford)

· Four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.267, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.871, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.9, 12th-best
· 290 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.300, 10th-fastest
· 2612 Laps in the Top 15 (52.0), 13th-most
· 408 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota)

· Two top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.714, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.218, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 89.7, eighth-best
· 147 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 173.415, seventh-fastest
· 4565 Laps in the Top 15 (64.9), eighth-most
· 679 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Duck Commander 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We're already six races into the season and have had five different winners as the series shifts back to a 1.5-mile track at Texas Motor Speedway which means the low downforce package comes back into the equation and Jimmie Johnson will most likely win again.

It may sound presumptuous to assume Johnson is going to win again, but let's be real with what we've seen far this season and also in Texas history. He's the only driver with multiple wins this year and they both came on tracks (Atlanta and Fontana) where the low downforce set-up figured prominently. On the other track where the package was a big deal -- Las Vegas, Johnson finished third and led the most laps.

And that's just this year.

How about the fact that Johnson has won the past three races at Texas and has won a track record six times while leading a track record 1,023 laps?

He's so good at Texas that he even wins there when he doesn't have the best car like was the case last fall. Brad Keselowski led 312 of the 334 laps. He had the dominant car on the day, but Johnson stayed close and when it was money time he put pressure on Keselowski. With four laps to go Johnson would make the pass and Keselowski would finish just over a second behind as runner-up.

I guess that's what champions do, but when you add in all his continued history there, his crew chief, and how the season is going so far, it's easy to see why he's the 9/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $45) to win Saturday night's Duck Commander 500. The only reason he isn't favored by more is because there are several drivers right near his level with the low downforce package, and that's kind of the angle I'm going to roll with this week.

By no means will I be looking to bet against Johnson in any match-ups, but I'm not thrilled about taking 9/2 odds even though Johnson has burned me several times in his career because I didn't want to back his short prices. And really, let's face it, there have been 19 races Johnson didn't win at Texas -- track record five runner-up finishes.

I'm thinking more about Gibbs and Penske this week.

Only two drivers have a career average finish better than 10th-place at Texas. Johnson is one, of course, with an 8.4 average, but the other is two-time Texas winner Matt Kenseth (9.4).

Kenseth has led laps in five of the six races thus far in 2016 and has stared 13th or better in five of the races, but he's still looking for his first top-five finish of the season. He finished seventh at Phoenix and has been 14th or worse in in the other five races.

Kenseth missed this race last fall due to be suspended for spearing Joey Logano's car at Martinsville. In 26 starts he's had 13 top-five finishes which is a track record he and Johnson both hold. He's also led 834 laps which is second only to Johnson. The Joe Gibbs Racing stable have all been stellar on these types of tracks this season, and Kenseth should have his best results of the season Saturday.

JGR driver Kyle Busch has finished in the top-five in five of the six 2016 races, including last weeks win at Martinsville. He was third at Atlanta and fourth at Las Vegas. Last years Sprint Cup champ won at Texas in 2013 and has a 12.4 average in 20 starts. He's been fourth or better in five of his past six starts there and it's likely to happen again this week.

Kevin Harvick finished second 13 times last season while only winning three races. He led a series-high 2,294 laps, the second straight year he led over 2,000 laps. He won at Phoenix this year like he always does, but he's left a couple of wins on the table just like last season. He's led 485 laps this season, including leading the most at Atlanta and Fontana (finished second). He'll be good again, but he seems to be a better bet at finishing second than winning. It's a crazy thing, his team just can't close out races -- too bad there's no first-half wager in NASCAR like basketball or football. He's so good at finishing second that one more and he'll tie Johnson for 10th all-time in NASCAR history with 46.

Harvick has never won at Texas in 26 starts, but does have a very respectable 12.3 average finish.

Brad Keselowski has three top-fives in his last four Texas starts, including a series-high 446 laps led over that span. He won at Las Vegas last month and should be right there with teammate Joey Logano trying get a top-five finish.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (9/2)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)

Texas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin takes a look at some notes and statistics for Saturday night's Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Texas

• Jimmie Johnson has won five of the last seven races, including the last three.
• Kevin Harvick, who led 96 laps in this event last year, has posted a 2.3 average finish in the last three races.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in his last three starts and has combined to lead 476 laps in the last five races.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in five of his last six starts, including a win in the 2013 spring race.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished sixth or better in four of the last five races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five in four of the last six races, including a win in the 2014 spring race.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Texas

• Carl Edwards, who is a three-time winner at Texas, finished in the top 10 in his first two Texas starts with Joe Gibbs Racing last season.
• Kurt Busch, who won the pole for this event last year, has finished in the top 10 two of his last three starts at Texas.
• Martin Truex Jr. finished in the top 10 in both Texas races last season. He also led 34 laps and finished seventh at Atlanta this year.
• Denny Hamlin swept Texas in 2010 and has six top 10s, including one win (Chicago) in the last 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
• Austin Dillon (8.0) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (11.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks this season with the lower downforce package.
• Rookies Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott each have one top 10 finish at a 1.5-mile track this season.
• Kasey Kahne has posted a 9.3 average finish in the last four Texas spring races with Hendrick Motorsports.
• Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in his last three Texas starts.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Texas

Jimmie Johnson has won five of the last seven Texas races, including the last three. Johnson won at Atlanta earlier this year and ranks first in average finish (2.0) and second in laps led (128) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce rules package.

Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in four of his last five Texas starts, including a win in this event in 2013. This year Busch ranks second in average finish (3.5) in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top five in the last three Texas races. He ranks second in laps led (476) in the last five races and led a race-high 312 last fall en route to a runner-up finish. Keselowski won at Las Vegas earlier this year and 5.0 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package.

Brian Vickers scored his last of two top 10s at Texas in this event in 2014 driving for Michael Waltrip Racing, in fourth. He will make his first Texas start since 2014 this weekend driving the No. 14 Chevrolet for the injured Tony Stewart. Vickers did make one start in the '14' this season at a 1.5-mile track at Las Vegas, but finished 36th after the car suffered a broken rear gear.

Kevin Harvick has finished in the top three in his last three starts at Texas with Stewart-Haas Racing. He led 96 laps in this event last year en route to a runner-up finish. Earlier this season, Harvick led 131 laps at Atlanta and has posted a 6.5 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package. This weekend, Harvick will debut a new car (chassis No. 986) in the Duck Commander 500.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top six in his last three Texas starts, including a third-place run last year in this event. Earnhardt has yet to lead a lap in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package, but has posted a 5.0 average finish and finished second at Atlanta.

Joey Logano won this event in 2014 after leading 108 laps. It marked his fourth top five in the last six races at Texas. This season, Logano has recorded an average finish of 7.0 and has led 74 laps in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package.

Greg Biffle's last of 13 top 10s at Texas came in this event in 2014. That finish was the last in a streak of six top 10s in the spring race that included a win in 2012. This season in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package, Biffle has posted and average finish of 16.5 and has yet to lead a lap.

Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in his last two Texas starts. He led 34 laps and finished seventh at Atlanta earlier this season to help give him a 9.0 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce rules package.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in the last three races at Texas. His best finish this season in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce rules package was 16th at Las Vegas.

Brian Scott finished 14th in his only Cup start at Texas last fall. This season with Richard Petty Motorsports in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks, Scott has posted a 29.0 average finish.

Matt Kenseth finished outside the top 20 in both events at Texas last season to snap a streak of two consecutive top 10s there with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth, who is a two-time Texas winner (Roush Fenway Racing), has combined to lead 57 laps in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, but a penalty and an accident, respectively, took him out of contention.

Ryan Newman has yet to finish in the top 10 in four Texas starts with Richard Childress Racing. This year in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks, Newman has posted an 18.5 average finish with his best coming at Las Vegas, 13th.

Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 in the last three Texas races with the last two coming with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards, who scored his last of three Texas wins in 2008, finished fifth in the first race of the year at a 1.5-mile track, Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin scored his last of 10 top 10s at Texas in the 2014 fall race. Hamlin, who swept both races in 2010, has posted a 17.5 average finish in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks this season with the lower downforce rules package.

Kasey Kahne has posted a 9.3 average finish in the last four Texas spring races with Hendrick Motorsports. He finished eighth in this event last year for his seventh top 10 in 23 overall starts. Kahne's lone top 10 of the season came at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway, 10th.

Clint Bowyer posted his last of 10 top 10s at Texas in this event in 2014 with Michael Waltrip Racing. Bowyer has yet to finish inside the top 15 this season with HScott Motorsports, including an average finish of 28.5 in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Kurt Busch won the pole and led 45 laps en route to a 14th-place finish last year in this event. Busch has recorded an average finish of 9.7 in his last three Texas starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch has won the pole for both races at 1.5-mile tracks this season and has finished in the top 10 in each. This weekend, Busch will return in the same car (chassis No. 962) that he finished ninth with at Las Vegas after recovering from a pit road speeding penalty.

AJ Allmendinger has yet to post a top 10 in four Texas starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. He is coming off a runner-up finish at Martinsville and finished 14th at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month.

Paul Menard's two top 10s in 10 Texas starts with Richard Childress Racing came in this event in 2011 and 2014. This year in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks with the lower downforce package, Menard has posted and average finish of 16.5.

Drivers to Watch - Texas
By Sportsbook.ag

The Sprint Cup Series drivers head to Fort Worth for the Duck Commander 500 on Saturday. This track runs 1.5 miles long and the drivers will be going 334 laps in this race.

One guy that will be looking forward to getting out on this track is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has already won this race twice in his career (2002, 2011) and that ties him with Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle for the most victories ever recorded in this race.He’ll be looking forward to the opportunity to break that record on Saturday.

Jimmie Johnson will, however, have victory on his mind as well. Johnson won this race in 2015 and he can become the first driver to ever win the Duck Commander 500 in back/back years. It’s also worth noting that three of the past five winners drove Ford manufactured cars.

With that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best plays for Saturday’s race:

Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (7/1) - Kenseth has had a bit of a disappointing season, failing to record a single top-five finish thus far. He is, however, very good when he comes to Fort Worth. As mentioned earlier, Kenseth has already won the Duck Commander 500 twice in his career and that is the most wins in this race amongst all active drivers. He’ll be looking to become the outright leader in wins at this race on Saturday and he should only be fueled by his struggles this season. He desperately needs to make a splash and he’s a great bet to do it at 7/1 odds.

Joey Logano (7/1) - Like Kenseth, Logano has had a bit of a down season and will be coming into this race with plenty of motivation to win. While he hasn’t been as bad as Kenseth, Logano is winless on the season and he is far too good of a driver for that to hold up much longer. Logan has two top-five finishes on the season and he also happens to be pretty good at Texas Motor Speedway. Logan was the winner of this race in 2014 and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t be in the running to emerge victorious once again on Saturday. He’s getting the same odds as Kenseth in this race and is a very good play for the weekend.

Denny Hamlin (15/1) - Denny Hamlin has had a fantastic season thus far, winning the Daytona 500 in the first race of the year and also coming away with two other top-fives. Hamlin has consistently been one of the best drivers in the Sprint Cup Series over the past few years and that is why it’s a bit ridiculous that he is getting 15/1 odds on Saturday. Hamlin also happens to be solid at Texas Motor Speedway in his career. He won this race back in 2010 and is an excellent pick to do it again on Saturday. He’s worth putting a few units on.

Chase Elliot (20/1) - There are not many good dark horse candidates coming into this race, but Elliot is a guy that could pay off nicely on Saturday. The youngster has been extremely impressive on the season, racking up three top-10 finishes already. He has really improved since coming in just 37th at the Daytona 500 and he should be due for a victory soon. This is a good weekend to take him and it’d be a smart decision to pair him with a guy like Kenseth when playing this race.