Emory Healthcare 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
This week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race takes us to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second of their two races this season. This will be the last year the track will host two races, a year after having at least two annually since 1960 -- a span of 103 races run -- due to Speedway Motorsports Incorporated moving one of their Atlanta dates to their Kentucky facility for the 2011 schedule. It will be good to have a new venue for fans in the rabid NASCAR region of southern Ohio and Kentucky to be closer to, but it won’t necessarily produce better racing and is sure to be much shorter.
Kentucky’s race will be a 400-mile race as opposed to both of Atlanta’s races traditionally being 500 milers. The latest trend in NASCAR over eight of the last 10 races has seen events last less than thee hours. The shorter races have been in part to longer green flag runs, drivers respecting each other more than ever and the handful of jalopies who start and park their cars just to steal a paycheck each week. The start and parkers are good in a way because those have been the type of cars that helped stockpile cautions throughout a race just by being in the way of faster cars. NASCAR is now getting races in at a faster pace than it took to repair the pot-hole during this year season opening Daytona 500.
With Atlanta only having one race a season, we still have the luxury of seeing two Charlotte races a year which runs the most similar to Atlanta and then Texas twice a year, which is close, along with the March Las Vegas date. And, all four of the SMI sister tracks are high banked 1.5-mile tracks. The other 1.5-mile tri-oval tracks, although much flatter in banking -- a category Kentucky will fall into, are Chicagoland and Kansas. Homestead-Miami is the only other 1.5-mile track, but it’s shaped more like a paper-clip with high banks making it sort of unique among them all.
So far we have seen five of those 1.5-mile tracks run this year which is a great tool of reference to go back on when attempting to figure out who presents the best value to win this week. Kasey Kahne is the only driver to have finished within the top-12 of all five races with Kevin Harvick having done so at all four of the SMI sister tracks. However, neither Kahne nor Harvick won any of those races, they just showed great consistency throughout.
The driver that should top the list of consideration is Kurt Busch who won at both Atlanta and Charlotte this season. Busch even won the non-points All-Star race at Charlotte the week prior to the marathon race, the Coca-Cola 600. Busch is a three-time winner in Atlanta and has won two of the last three races run there.
Jimmie Johnson has been in a funk over the last seven races after coming off of back-to-back wins at Sonoma and New Hampshire in June. Over those seven races, five have seen him finish 22nd or worse, which has dropped him way down in season points from second-place all the way to ninth. Something isn’t clicking with the No. 48 teams because they certainly have a car capable of winning each week, they just can’t finish. At Chicagoland, Johnson led a race high 92 laps, but finished 25th. Two weeks ago at Bristol, Johnson led 192 laps, but finished 35th. If this were baseball with a contender having the same type of issues, the club would sacrifice their entire farm system to get a quality closer.
Johnson’s slump has also elevated his odds at Las Vegas sportsbooks. Generally at tracks like Atlanta, a bettor would be lucky to find Johnson at 4/1 or higher, but this week can be found at 6/1 or higher. It may not seem like a big hike in price, but a 50% increase from normal odds is pretty chunky when considering just how good Johnson has been on these types of tracks and knowing that the issues he had wasn’t just because of having a car lacking horsepower. This team has speed, and most of all they have Johnson himself behind the wheel, the defending four-time NASCAR champion.
The drivers that have taken the biggest dip in odds over the last five races have been a trio of Roush-Fenway drivers, who are all showing they are the upswing just as the Chase arrives. All the tinkering and testing to get their engines to produce more horsepower has finally come to fruition. It only took half the season to figure out, but luckily for Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle they were able to finish well enough to have themselves firmly entrenched in the Chase with hopes that the best is yet to come.
For Edwards, he’s a three-time Atlanta winner who had one of his better runs of the season as runner-up on the 1.5-mile track of Chicago a few weeks ago. Kenseth has never won in Atlanta, but despite not having the best horsepower output early on, still managed to finish within the top-13 in four of the five 1.5-mile races this season, including runner-up in the first Atlanta race.
Greg Biffle is the only Roush driver to capture a win this season and finished eighth in the Atlanta race back in March. In his last five starts, Biffle has a win, third, fourth and eighth-place finishes and has given himself a nice comfortable cushion in the race to the Chase where he currently sits 11th with two races to go.
The driver who has been charging hard in the standings in points has been Jamie McMurray. When July came around, McMurray was mired in 18th position, but yet he’s still showing in practices and races that he was good enough to compete with the best. He put it all together at the Daytona Firecracker with a fifth and has charged all the way to 13th in points coming into this week only 100 points behind Clint Bowyer. His team obviously found something that was wrong and fixed it, but is it too late?
History says it’s possible, but there have been five drivers who have made the Chase while trailing with two races to go. The largest gap at the same juncture to have made it was Kasey Kahne’s 90 points in 2006.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (12/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
5) #2 Kurt Busch (8/1)
Odds & Ends - Atlanta
Atlanta Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 25 of 36 (9-5-10)
Track Size: 1.54 miles
Race Length: 325 laps/500.5 miles
# Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
# Banking/Straights: 5 degrees
# Frontstretch: 2,332 feet
# Backstretch: 1,800 feet
Driver Rating at Atlanta
Jimmie Johnson 109.5
Jeff Gordon 101.8
Carl Edwards 99.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 98.7
Tony Stewart 98.7
Kurt Busch 97.0
Matt Kenseth 96.5
Greg Biffle 95.0
Denny Hamlin 94.5
Kasey Kahne 93.3
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Atlanta.
Qualifying/Race Data
2010 pole winner: Martin Truex Jr. (184.149 mph, 30.106 secs.)
2010 race winner: Kasey Kahne (134.033 mph, 9-6-09)
Track qualifying record: Geoffrey Bodine (197.478 mph, 28.074 secs., 11-15-97)
Race record: Dale Earnhardt (163.633 mph, 11-16-97)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 48-52 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Driver Highlights - Atlanta
Greg Biffle (No. 16 SCOTCH BLUE Ford)
# Enters Atlanta 11th in points
# Three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 15.0
# Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
# Driver Rating of 95.0, eighth-best
# 214 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
# 594 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.711 mph, 11th-fastest
# 2,647 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5%), fourth-most
# 353 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
# 10th in points
# Three wins, three top fives, seven top 10s
# Average finish of 18.7
# Average Running Position of 14.4, 11th-best
# Driver Rating of 97.0, sixth-best
# 233 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.796 mph, seventh-fastest
# 2,223 Laps in the Top 15 (61.8%), 11th-most
# 342 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 Pedigree Toyota)
# Third in points
# One win, two top fives, two top 10s
# Average finish of 18.3
# Average Running Position of 15.2, 13th-best
# Driver Rating of 88.7, 11th-best
# 142 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
# 655 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
# 305 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet)
# 18th in points
# One win, eight top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.0
# Average Running Position of 11.6, fifth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.7, fourth-best
# 222 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
# 666 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.989 mph, third-fastest
# 2,657 Laps in the Top 15 (73.8%), third-most
# 363 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford)
# Fourth in points
# Three wins, six top fives, eight top 10s
# Average finish of 15.3
# Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
# Driver Rating of 99.4, third-best
# Series-high 291 Fastest Laps Run
# Average Green Flag Speed of 172.022 mph, second-fastest
# 2,629 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0%), fifth-most
# 316 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/Jeff Gordon Foundation Chevrolet)
# Second in points
# Four wins, 14 top fives, 23 top 10s; two poles
# Average finish of 12.4
# Average Running Position of 10.7, second-best
# Driver Rating of 101.8, second-best
# 155 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.717 mph, 10th-fastest
# 2,857 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), second-most
# 365 Quality Passes, second-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota)
# Fifth in points
# One top five, three top 10s
# Average finish of 15.9
# Average Running Position of 11.2, third-best
# Driver Rating of 94.5, ninth-best
# 133 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.854 mph, fifth-fastest
# 2,181 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), 13th-most
# 316 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet)
# Ninth in points
# Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
# Average finish of 10.8
# Series-best Average Running Position of 7.8
# Series-best Driver Rating of 109.5
# 223 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
# Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.196 mph
# Series-high 3,220 Laps in the Top 15 (89.4%)
# Series-high 374 Quality Passes
Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser/Valvoline Ford)
# 16th in points
# Two wins, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 16.0
# Driver Rating of 93.3, 10th-best
# 210 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.675 mph, 12th-fastest
# 2,261 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), 10th-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford)
# Eighth in points
# Eight top fives, 12 top 10s
# Average finish of 13.1
# Average Running Position of 12.9, seventh-best
# Driver Rating of 96.5, seventh-best
# 138 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
# 666 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.869 mph, fourth-fastest
# 2,588 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), seventh-most
# 365 Quality Passes, second-most
Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet)
# 19th in points
# Three top fives, three top 10s
# Average finish of 18.3
# Driver Rating of 86.8, 13th-best
# 288 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet)
# Sixth in points
# Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
# Average finish of 12.0
# Average Running Position of 11.5, fourth-best
# Driver Rating of 98.7, fifth-best
# 162 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
# 2,597 Laps in the Top 15 (72.1%), sixth-most
# 344 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)
# 20th in points
# Two top 10s; one pole
# Average finish of 24.6
# Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
# Driver Rating of 87.6, 12th-best
# 109 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
# Average Green Flag Speed of 171.810 mph, sixth-fastest
# 2,306 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4%), ninth-most
# 333 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Some drivers must go all out at Atlanta
By GREG ENGLE
The word this week for the NASCAR Sprint Series drivers is “clinch”.
As the series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Emory Healthcare 500, the focus will be on the upcoming Chase - the final ten run stretch for the championship. Atlanta marks the next to final race before the field is set and for drivers in the Top 5 that could affect how they will race this weekend.
Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon have already clinched their berths in the final 12, while third through fifth Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin should have no problem clinching their spots this weekend. That is as long as they stay out of trouble.
Look for those three to focus less on winning and more on simply surviving with a decent finish.
The real action will be behind the Top 5 as those inside the Top 12 in points let It all hang out in order to try and position themselves for the Chase.
Drivers like those in sixth place Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth and this week’s favorite Jimmie Johnson.
No doubt just a few weeks ago Johnson, the four time defending series champion, could not have envisioned his tumble down in the points. But after a few terrible weeks, Johnson knows he has to go out and win - nothing less, nothing more. With three wins here, the last coming when he swept both races in 2007, he certainly has the history to do it. And with the motivation of having something to prove, he will be tough to beat.
The spoiler in all this is the driver who won this race last season, Kasey Kahne. Kahne will be a driver to watch this week. He’s far enough out of the points that making the Chase for him will be a long shot. And to him, winning is what it’s all about, especially given the fact that he’s in his final few races at Richard Petty Motorsports before heading to another team next season.
“I got 12 races left,” Kahne said. “That's where I'm at. I don't want to be done winning in a Ford, I don't want to be done for Richard Petty Motorsports. Hopefully we can find some spark to that.”
Keep an eye out for the racing behind Johnson in the points. That’s where the real melee could break out. Clint Bowyer is in the 12th and final spot, 100 points ahead of Jamie McMurray. Neither driver has won at Atlanta but Bowyer said this week that he thinks his dirt track experience will give him an advantage over McMurray.
"That's exactly what you're doing,” Bowyer said. “You're dirt tracking at 200 miles per hour around a big race track. You have to get up on the wheel to make things happen, but hold onto the car and don't let it get out from underneath you. Most of the time, you're really loose as the back end of the car is trying to come out from underneath you. It happens about every corner on every lap.”
Directly behind McMurray is Mark Martin, who is 101 points away from 12th, while Ryan Newman is in 14th, only 118 points back. But in the Martin-Newman matchup, look for Newman to prevail.
"No matter how many realistic ways you dissect the numbers our backs are to the wall in every scenario," said Newman, a three-time Chase participant, including last year. "We're going into the race with the expectation of contending for the win.”
Emory Healthcare 500 picks:
Jimmie Johnson (+600)
Kasey Kahne (+1000)
Kevin Harvick (+800)
Driver Chassis Selections for Atlanta Emory Healthcare 500
By Jeff Wackerlin
1. Kevin Harvick: Finished ninth in the spring for sixth top 10 in 19 starts; Finish was third consecutive top 10; Led 66 laps and finished second in this event last year; Leads all drivers with a 7.0 average in five starts with the COT; Sixth-best average finish (12.6) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 288) that he drove to Victory Lane at Michigan in August.
2. Jeff Gordon: Four-time winner with last win coming in 2003; 18th-place finish in the spring ended streak of five consecutive top 10s; 8.4 average in five starts with the COT; Third-best average finish (12.2) and most laps led (393) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
3. Kyle Busch: Winner of the 2008 spring race after leading 173 laps; Posted first finishes outside the top 10s with Joe Gibbs Racing in the last three events; Never scored a top 10 in first seven starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Fifth-best average finish (12.6) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 274) that he finished eighth with at Indianapolis.
4. Carl Edwards: Scored his third win in the 2008 fall race; 37th-place finish in this event last year broke a streak of five consecutive top 10s where he was running at the finish; Was parked in the spring race after contact with Brad Keselowski; 20.4 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 702) in the Emory Healthcare 500.
5. Denny Hamlin: In 10 starts, finished a best third in the fall of 2008; Has three top 10s, all coming in the second race; Led 26 laps and finished sixth in this event last year; Eighth-best average finish (13.4) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
6. Tony Stewart: 10.7 average finish in three starts with Stewart-Haas; Posted two wins and 11 top 10s in previous 20 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; 15.2 average finish and 82 laps led in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 515) that he won the pole and finished second with at Pocono.
7. Jeff Burton: Five top 10s in 11 starts with Richard Childress Racing; Last top 10 with RCR came in the 2008 spring race; 19.2 average finish in the five starts with the COT; 10th-best average finish (15.) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 314) in the Emory Healthcare 500.
8. Matt Kenseth: Coming off best finish (second) and eighth top five in 21 starts; Finished 12th in both races in 2009; Previous five starts resulted in finishes of eighth or better; Second-best average finish (10.0) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 694) that he finished 12th with at Indianapolis.
9. Jimmie Johnson: Three-time winner; Last win came in the 2007 fall race after leading eight laps; 14.4 average finish in the five races with the COT; 15.4 average finish and 185 laps led in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 592) that he finished 10th with at Pocono in July.
10. Kurt Busch: Coming off second consecutive win in the spring race; Finished 38th in this event last year after a crash took him out of contention; Most laps led (375) in the five races with the COT; 13.4 average finish and 383 laps led in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 704) that he most recently finished sixth with at Pocono in June.
11. Greg Biffle: Coming off ninth top 10 in 15 starts with an eighth-place finish; Best finish (third) came in the 2005 spring race; Finished 10th in this event last year; 13.2 average finish in the five starts with the COT; 19.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 696) that he drove to Victory Lane at Pocono.
12. Clint Bowyer: 26.0 average finish in last two starts; Four top 10s in nine races have resulted in sixth-place finishes; 15.6 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 310) that he finished fourth with at Indianapolis.
13. Jamie McMurray: 20.9 average finish in 16 starts; Best finish (sixth) came in the 2005 fall race with Ganassi Racing; Finished 29th in the spring in first track start in an Earnhardt-Ganassi Chevrolet; 20.0 average finish and 111 laps led in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 1016) in the Emory Healthcare 500.
14. Mark Martin: Won the pole in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in the 2009 spring race; Best finish, and only top 30 with HMS, came in this event last year in fifth; Finish was 14th top 10 in 49 starts; Two wins came with Roush Racing in 1991 and 1994; Fourth-best average finish (12.4) in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will be back in the same car (chassis No. 550) that he most recently finished seventh with at Pocono.
15. Ryan Newman: 16.0 average finish in three races with Stewart-Haas; Finished ninth in this event last year for fifth top 10; Seven-time pole winner; 15.6 average finish in the five starts with the COT; 15.4 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
16. Kasey Kahne: Defending event winner; Two victories came behind the wheel of a Dodge; Led 144 laps and finished fourth in the spring in first track start in a Ford; Last three starts have resulted in top 10s with Richard Petty Motorsports; Leads all drivers with a 7.2 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
17. David Reutimann: Finished fourth in this event last year for only top 10 in six starts; Latest winner on a 1.5-mile track (Chicago); 19.2 average finish and 55 laps led in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 11.4 average finish in five starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Posted one win and nine top 10s in previous 17 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Won the pole and finished 15th in the spring; Will debut a new chassis (No. 612) in the Emory Healthcare 500.
19. Juan Montoya: Coming off consecutive third-place finishes; Led 31 laps from the 22nd starting position last year in this event; 17.8 average finish in the five starts with the COT; 25.6 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1003) that finished 16th at Chicago.
20. Martin Truex Jr: Finished 27th in the spring in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; Posted two top 10s in previous 10 starts with Dale Earnhardt, Inc./Earnhardt Ganassi; Won the pole and led 68 laps in this event last year; 18.0 average finish in the five races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
Practice Notes - Atlanta
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Top 8 Driver Rating Following All Atlanta Practice Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualifying Spring Results*
1 Kasey Kahne 10/1 1st 6th 10th 4th
Notes: His win in this 2009 race was his last to date; Two wins and four other top-fives in 12 starts.
2 Kurt Busch 8/1 2nd 24th 11th 1st
Notes:Three-time Atlanta winner including this spring; using sixth-place Pocono chassis this week.
3 Greg Biffle 12/1 7th 10th 15th 8th
Notes:Using same stout chassis that finished third at Indy and won the following week at Indy.
4 Denny Hamlin 12/1 5th 14th 1st 21st
Notes:Best average lap times during first practice; won on the similar track of Texas in April.
5 Ryan Newman 40/1 9th 1st 2nd 17th
Notes:Practiced the best he has all season prior to a race; had the best 10-lap average speeds.
6 Carl Edwards 12/1 22nd 2nd 4th 39th
Notes:Three-time Atlanta winner; runner-up at last 1.5-mile track run on at Chicago. New car this week.
7 Matt Kenseth 18/1 6th 28th 29th 2nd
Notes:Eight Atlanta top-five finishes including runner-up in the spring; Using new chassis this week.
8 Tony Stewart 12/1 8th 9th 5th 13th
Notes:Two time Atlanta winner; will be using same car that sat on the pole finishing second at Pocono.
* Race results from March 7 Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta
Note: There were only two scheduled practices Saturday followed by qualifying. The first practice in race trim was the more important of the two.