Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting News and Notes

Kyle Busch, historically dominant at Richmond, garners favorite status for Saturday
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Kyle Busch has dominated Richmond International Raceway more than any other driver in the Sprint Cup series since he made his debut in 2005, a big reason why the LVH SuperBook has posted him as the 5-to-1 favorite to win Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400. In 17 starts at the track, Busch has 12 top-five finishes and three wins, and has compiled a series-best 6.5 average finish position.

The other variables that make Busch the favorite this week have to do with the terrific run he’s currently on that has made him a true contender heading into the Chase. We’ve seen Busch fail miserably during the Chase, but this year seems different. He’s finished 12th or better in 12 of his past 15 starts, and has shown a vast range of excellence at varying tracks – he’s won the road course at Watkins Glen and on the 1.5-mile track last week at Atlanta, and he finished second at New Hampshire’s 1-mile layout.

Busch has four wins on the season, tied for second in the category with Jimmie Johnson and one behind teammate Matt Kenseth. Johnson and Kenseth are two of the three co-second choices at Richmond at 7-to-1.

Johnson has won three times at Richmond’s three-quarter mile track over his career and has typically run well on the shorter flat tracks. Had he not finished 28th or worse in his last three races, he may have been 5-to-1, too, or at least 6-to-1. But indeed he has. Johnson and his team are failing like rarely seen before – and at the worst possible time, just as the Chase is about to begin. The field of 12 will be set after this weekend’s race.

Not only are there doubts about Johnson winning this week, but there are also serious questions about him winning his sixth championship, which seemed like a gimme last month. Beyond his recent troubles, the real problem beginning next week for Johnson rests with the type of tracks he’ll see in five of the 10 Chase races – the 1.5-mile layouts at Chicago, Kansas, Charlotte, Texas and Miami. Johnson won five championships by being the best on those types of tracks, but in six attempts this season, he doesn’t have a win and has only one top five. Still, Johnson is the 3-to-2 favorite to win this season’s title.

Johnson’s troubles on 1.5-mile tracks have nothing to do with this week, but it’s another weight thrown on the back of the No. 48 team, and the burden is becoming too heavy for them to handle. The pressure is mounting, and if Johnson doesn’t run well this week, we may see the cockiest, most confident grin yet from the driver of the No. 18 car when the Chase begins.

Brad Keseloswki, the defending Sprint Cup champion, is the third driver listed at 7-to-1 this week. With his chances of making the Chase slim, he‘s got to come out swinging Saturday night and go all out for the win. He's in 15th place, 28 points outside the top 10, but if he gets his first win of the season, he may be able to sneak in.

Keselowski trails provisional wild-card holder Martin Truex Jr. by 13 points (Truex is in 13th place, but has a win; 11th place Jeff Gordon does not). Keselowski’s low odds this week are largely based on his mindset that he needs a win – they’re certainly not based on what he's done over his career at Richmond. In eight Cup starts on the track, he's averaged a 20.5 finish, his best being a seventh-place last fall. However, he did finish fourth at both Phoenix and New Hampshire, two tracks that require similar set-ups.

Kasey Kahne is listed at odds of 8-to-1, which may seem a bit extreme since he hasn’t won at Richmond since 2005 and has a bloated career average finish of 18.2 at the track. But Kahne has had a properly- balanced car and lots of horsepower all season. He practices well at just about every track and is a candidate to win almost anywhere. He’s the one driver for which the bookmaker feels it’s better to be safe than sorry, regardless of what trends say.

In addition to the track’s spring race, one of the better handicapping tools for Richmond is analyzing the results from the 1-mile flat tracks of New Hampshire and Phoenix. The layouts aren’t alike, but trends tell us that if a driver does well on one, he typically does well on the others.

Several drivers have performed extremely well with consistent finishes at each of the three races run on those flat tracks this season. Gordon is listed at 10-to-1 odds this week not only because of his desperation to make the Chase by making up six-points on 10th-place Kurt Busch, but also because he’s finished 11th or better on all three tracks this season. He also was runner-up in this race last season under almost the same Chase circumstances.

Kevin Harvick won four of the six races at Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire during the 2006 season, at least one on each of the tracks. He won the spring race in April and also finished 13th at Phoenix and seventh at New Hampshire. Overall, he’s a three-time winner at Richmond, and his 12-to-1 odds this week appear generous based on his history at these types of tracks.

The Richard Childress program has elevated its game over the last two months, and it’s shown – not only with Harvick, but also with Jeff Burton, a native Virginian and winner of the 1998 fall event. Burton has fared well on these tracks over his career, doing most of his winning at Phoenix and New Hampshire. He has finished in the top-10 on all three tracks this season, including a season-best third-place at New Hampshire in July. He’s an intriguing longshot at 100-to-1 this week, and worth at least a $5 throwaway.

Like Burton, Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 at all three similar tracks, including claiming his only win of the season at Phoenix in March. Edwards has never won at Richmond, part of the reason he’s listed so high at 18-to-1 odds.

Here’s a look at the LVH’s complete list of Richmond odds, as well as updated Sprint Cup championship prices.

ODDS TO WIN FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400, RICHMOND, SATURDAY, SEPT. 7

KYLE BUSCH 5-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7-1
MATT KENSETH 7-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 7-1
KASEY KAHNE 8-1
JEFF GORDON 10-1
DENNY HAMLIN 12-1
KEVIN HARVICK 12-1
CLINT BOWYER 12-1
KURT BUSCH 15-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15-1
CARL EDWARDS 18-1
JOEY LOGANO 18-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 20-1
BRIAN VICKERS 25-1
GREG BIFFLE 30-1
RYAN NEWMAN 40-1
JUAN MONTOYA 60-1
MARK MARTIN 60-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 75-1
PAUL MENARD 100-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 100-1
JEFF BURTON 100-1
MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300-1
DANICA PATRICK 1000-1
FIELD 500-1

Richmond International Raceway Data

Season Race #: 26 of 36 (09-07-13)
Track Size: 0.75-miles
Banking/Turns 1 & 2: 14 degrees
Banking/Turns 3 & 4: 14 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 1,290 feet
Backstretch Length: 860 feet
Race Length: 400 laps / 300 miles

Top 12 Driver Rating at Richmond

Denny Hamlin 117.8
Kyle Busch 113.0
Kevin Harvick 111.1
Clint Bowyer 100.4
Tony Stewart 96.5
Jeff Gordon 95.7
Mark Martin 92.2
Ryan Newman 91.1
Jimmie Johnson 90.9
Kurt Busch 90.0
Carl Edwards 88.9
Kasey Kahne 87.3

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2013 races (17 total) among active drivers at Richmond International Raceway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2012 pole winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet, 127.023 mph, 21.256 secs. 9-6-12
2012 race winner: Clint Bowyer, Toyota, 100.019 mph, (02:59:58), 9-8-12
Track qualifying record: Matt Kenseth, 130.334 mph, 20.716 secs. 4-27-13
Track race record: Dale Jarrett, Ford, 109.047 mph, (02:45:04), 9-6-97

Driver Tale of the Tape at Richmond

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-Hour Energy Toyota)

· Two wins, three top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 9.1
· Average Running Position of 9.8, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.4, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.451 mph, fifth-fastest
· 4,771 Laps in the Top 15 (79.3%), fifth-most
· 467 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row/Sealy Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 17.9
· Average Running Position of 15.1, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, 10th-best
· 331 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 772 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· 405 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's American Heritage Chocolate Toyota)

· Four wins, 12 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 6.5
· Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
· Driver Rating of 113.0, second-best
· 519 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.818 mph, second-fastest
· 5,934 Laps in the Top 15 (87.1%), second-most
· 509 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Time Warner Cable Chevrolet)

· Three wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.8
· Average Running Position of 15.2, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.6, 13th-best
· 320 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· 885 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
· 380 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kellogg’s/Frosted Ford)

· Three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.4
· Average Running Position of 15.1, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.9, 11th-best
· 268 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 875 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.319 mph, 12th-fastest
· 4,010 Laps in the Top 15 (58.8%), 10th-most
· 399 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)

· Two wins, 16 top fives, 25 top 10s; five poles
· Average finish of 14.3
· Average Running Position of 13.9, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.7, sixth-best
· 319 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.416 mph, sixth-fastest
· 4,227 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0%), ninth-most
· 400 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)

· Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 8.1
· Series-best Average Running Position of 5.9
· Series-best Driver Rating of 117.8
· Series-high 582 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 116.882 mph
· 5,221 Laps in the Top 15 (93.1%), third-most
· 400 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.3
· Average Running Position of 7.6, second-best
· Driver Rating of 111.1, third-best
· 445 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.721 mph, third-fastest
· Series-high 6,310 Laps in the Top 15 (92.6%)
· Series-high 575 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's / Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)

· Three wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.3
· Average Running Position of 15.0, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.9, ninth-best
· 252 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· 763 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.328 mph, 10th-fastest
· 3,990 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5%), 11th-most
· 398 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.2
· Driver Rating of 87.3, 12th-best
· 336 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 817 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.330 mph, ninth-fastest
· 397 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.8
· Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.1, eighth-best
· 821 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· 5,165 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), fourth-most
· 510 Quality Passes, second-most

Martin Truex Jr (No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota)

· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 23.7
· Average Running Position of 16.8, 17th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.3, 18th-best
· 324 Quality Passes, 17th-best
· 3,306 Laps in the Top 15 (55.0%), 16th-most

Federated Auto Parts Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Seven drivers have already punched an entry ticket to the Race for the Sprint Cup Championship, NASCAR’s 10-race version of the playoffs, with five more invites to be awarded at the conclusion of Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Eight drivers are in contention for those final five spots, and the tension will be thick for each of them as they try to maintain their position, as is the case for Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne and Martin Truex Jr., or for others like Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Brad Keselowski, who have to try and race themselves in.

Logano and Biffle should get in based on each of them having a win and being at least 28 points ahead of Newman for one of the two wild card wins awarded to drivers with the most wins on the season. But the best race of the night will be between Gordon and Kurt Busch, who are separated by only six points. Busch holds the 10th position, and needs to maintain it in order to make the Chase because he doesn’t have a win this year. Gordon needs to have a run similar to last season when he raced race himself into the Chase at Richmond with a second-place finish.

It’s been a while since either Busch or Gordon won at Richmond, but both have been very competitive there in recent years. Busch last won in 2005 while driving for Roush Racing and Gordon last won there in 2000, which was the second win of his career on the three-quarter-mile flat track.

While Gordon hasn’t won in Richmond in a longer span than Busch has even been driving in the series, he has been very consistent at this venue. He’s finished 12th or better in 11 of his last 13 starts there, which includes six top-5 finishes. Over the same span, Busch has finished 12th or better seven times, including besting Gordon by two positions in the spring when Busch was ninth.

To get a better read on who might do well Saturday night, I like to look over at what happened at Phoenix in March, the first Richmond race in April and New Hampshire in July. Phoenix and New Hampshire are both mile tracks with completely different layouts than Richmond, but all three have relatively flat banking which makes the set-ups similar. Teams that do well on one track traditionally do well on the others.

This season we have seen Carl Edwards finish eighth or better on all three, including his only win of the season at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick finished 13th or better on all three, including a win in the first Richmond race. Gordon was 11th or better in all three, Matt Kenseth was ninth or better in all of them, and surprisingly, Jeff Burton had at least a top-10 in each with his best finish of the season coming at New Hampshire where he finished third.

The correlation between the three tracks is nothing new. It’s been going on since each of them have been existence together. Recent drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr., Burton, Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Jimmie Johnson have all compiled wins in season at two or more of these tracks. In the case of Harvick in 2006, he won on all three tracks, including a sweep of Phoenix.

Clint Bowyer is a driver that also shown his best on these type of tracks. He’s a two-time winner at Richmond, including winning this race last season.

The best overall driver at Richmond since he came onto the scene in 2005 has been Kyle Busch, who incidentally grabbed one of his two wins during his 2005 rookie campaign at Phoenix. He finished both Richmond races during his rookie season in the top-5 and he’s been running strong ever since with a 6.5 average finish that includes three wins, the last coming in April, 2012.

Busch notched his fourth win of the season last week at Atlanta, and of all the drivers headed to the Chase, he looks like the driver to beat because he has the most momentum going for him. We’ll see five races on 1.5-mile tracks during the 10-race Chase and Busch has captured two wins in the six races run on them already this season. The LVH Super Book currently has him listed as the co-second choice to win with Kenseth at 7/2 odds, just behind the favored Johnson at 3/2.

As for Johnson, he’s a three-time winner at Richmond, and has always raced well on these type of tracks, but his team is struggling big time. He’s finished 28th or worse in his last three starts, and all the wins and quality finishes throughout the season mean nothing right now as they limp into the Chase. I thought last week was the perfect place for them to get their act together, but the type of trouble the No. 48 has always eluded over his career has found him in bunches recently, as if making up for all his lost time of avoiding the inevitable in NASCAR.

Look for Kyle Busch to find his way to the front and battle with Gordon who will try to give it all he’s got to win and not have to worry about where Kurt Busch is.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (10/1)
3) #29 Kevin Harvick (10/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (15/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)

Driver Handicaps: Richmond
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com's Jeff Wackerlin breaks down all the stats and information to help steer you toward Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Who's HOT at Richmond

• Defending race winner Clint Bowyer has posted a 3.3 average finish in his last three starts.
• Kyle Busch leads all drivers in wins (4) and average finish (6.5).
• Kevin Harvick is coming off his second win in the last four races.
• Jeff Gordon has finished third or better in four of the last eight races.
• Carl Edwards has led the most laps (330) in the last five races.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in five of the last seven races, including wins in this event in 2009 and 2010.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Richmond

• Hendrick Motorsports, Penske Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Germain Racing were among the teams that tested at Richmond last month.
• AJ Allmendinger, who tested the No. 55 Toyota last month at Richmond, will be back behind the wheel of the No. 47 Toyota this weekend.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has posted three top 10s in the four short-track races this season with the Gen-6 car.
• Matt Kenseth led the most laps (140) in the spring at Richmond in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Jimmie Johnson is looking to snap a streak of bad luck with his fifth win of the season at Richmond, a victory that would tie Matt Kenseth for the regular-season series lead.
• Juan Pablo Montoya led 67 laps and finished fourth in the spring at Richmond.
• Jeff Burton, who announced Wednesday that he will be leaving the No. 31 team at the end of the year, has finishes of sixth and fifth in his last two starts at Richmond.
• Mark Martin will be driving the same chassis that Tony Stewart posted an average finish of 3.5 and combined to lead 133 laps with in both races at Richmond last season.
• Paul Menard, who finished 13th in the spring at Richmond, has scored the fourth-most points in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car.

Note: Sprint Cup Series teams will be running the same left- and right-side tire codes that they have run at Richmond since 2011. In that five-race span, Clint Bowyer (7.6) and Edwards (8.0) have the top two average finishes. Edwards (330), Busch (307), Hamlin (240), Bowyer (219) and Harvick (218) are the top five in laps led.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Writer Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Clint Bowyer
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Dustin Long: Clint Bowyer
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Richmond unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Finished 12th in April; Three-time winner; 13.1 average finish in the last 10 races; last top 10 (eighth) in this event came in 2010; Second among all drivers in laps led (346) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 778) that he raced in the spring at Richmond.

Clint Bowyer: Defending race winner; Has finished seventh or better in six of the last eight races; Tested at Richmond last month; Leads all drivers with a 5.8 average finish in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 743) that he led 113 laps and finished second with in the spring at Richmond.

Kevin Harvick: Coming off third win in 25 starts; Winner of this event in 2011; 10.5 average finish in last 10 races; Will return in the same car he drove to victory at Richmond in April; He last finished seventh with the car at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Carl Edwards: Finished sixth in April; Has finished in the top 10 and led 427 laps in six of the last seven races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 857) that he last finished eighth with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Kyle Busch: Led 40 laps and finished 24th in April; Winner of the four previous spring races; 6.5 average finish in 17 starts; Last top 10 (sixth) in this event came in 2011; Third-best average finish (10.5) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car.

Matt Kenseth: Led 140 laps and finished seventh in first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing in April; Posted one win and 10 top 10s in previous 26 starts with Roush Fenway Racing; First among all drivers in laps led (470) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finished 10th in April; 8.7 average finish in last three starts; Defending race pole winner; Has posted three top 10s in 11 starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Last of three wins came in the 2006 spring race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; Tested at Richmond last month; Sixth-best average finish (12.5) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 721) that he tested and last finished 14th with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Joey Logano: Tested at Richmond last month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 853) that he finished third with in the spring in first Richmond start with Penske Racing; Fifth-best average finish (12.0) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Only other top 10 (fourth) in nine starts came in this event in 2010 with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Greg Biffle: Finished 36th in spring; Only top 10 in last 13 starts came in this event last year, ninth place; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 856) that he last finished 15th with at New Hampshire in July.

Kurt Busch: Led 36 laps and finished ninth in the spring; Finish was eighth top 10 in 25 starts; Won this event in 2005 with Roush Racing.

Jeff Gordon: Two-time winner; Has finished third or better in four of the last eight races; Tested last month at Richmond; Finished 11th in April; Eighth-best average finish (13.8) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car.

Kasey Kahne: Finished 21st in April; 12.7 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Tested at Richmond last month; Second-best average finish (7.0) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 815) in the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Martin Truex Jr.: Finished 17th in April; 21.3 average finish in seven starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Tested at Richmond last month.

Ryan Newman: Finished 15th in April; Has finished eighth in this event the last two seasons; Won this race in 2003 with Penske Racing; Tested at Richmond last month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 790) that he tested and raced in the spring at Richmond.

Brad Keselowski: Finished 33rd in April; Finish snapped streak of two consecutive top 10s; Tested at Richmond last month; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 845) that he last finished fourth with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Jamie McMurray: Finished 26th in April; Best finish in seven starts with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing is 14th, twice.

Paul Menard: Finished 13th in April; Fourth-best average finish (11.8) in the four short-track races with the Gen-6 car; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 419) he raced in the spring at Richmond.

Aric Almirola: Finished eighth in April; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 837) that he raced in the spring at Richmond.

Juan Pablo Montoya: Led 67 laps and finished fourth in April; Finish was fourth top 10 in 13 starts.

Marcos Ambrose: Finished 42nd in April due to engine issues; Best finish (fifth) in nine starts came in this event in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 847) in the Federated Auto Parts 400.