Folds of Honor QuikTrip 400 Betting News and Notes

Atlanta Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Ortho Ford)

· Three top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.7
· Average Running Position of 13.9, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.8, 11th-best
· 237 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 1,031 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· 3,466 Laps in the Top 15 (66.2%), sixth-most
· 539 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), seventh-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Kelly Blue Book Chevrolet)

· One win, eight top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.3
· Average Running Position of 13.0, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 92.7, ninth-best
· 227 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
· 1,119 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.203 mph, eighth-fastest
· 3,382 Laps in the Top 15 (64.6%), seventh-most
· 535 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 ARRIS Toyota)

· Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.6
· Average Running Position of 12.4, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.1, third-best
· Series-high 371 Fastest Laps Run
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.499 mph, second-fastest
· 4,038 Laps in the Top 15 (77.1%), third-most
· 552 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 3M Chevrolet)

· Five wins, 16 top fives, 26 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 11.9
· Average Running Position of 10.2, second-best
· Series-best Driver Rating of 106.0
· 296 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.453 mph, fourth-fastest
· 4,161 Laps in the Top 15 (79.5%), second-most
· Series-high 612 Quality Passes

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)

· One win, three top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.8
· Average Running Position of 12.1, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.4, sixth-best
· 263 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.463 mph, third-fastest
· 3,312 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4%), ninth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Jimmy John's/ Budweiser Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.8
· Driver Rating of 90.4, 12th-best
· 280 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 949 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.232 mph, seventh-fastest
· 3,045 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), 12th-most
· 470 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 12 top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.5
· Series-best Average Running Position of 9.1
· Driver Rating of 104.9, second-best
· 280 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 171.523 mph
· Series-high 4,381 Laps in the Top 15 (83.7%)
· 582 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· Nine top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.3
· Average Running Position of 12.2, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.9, fifth-best
· 201 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· 1,034 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.339 mph, fifth-fastest
· 3,749 Laps in the Top 15 (71.6%), fourth-most
· 544 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 ENERGIZER Chevrolet)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 8.0
· Average Running Position of 11.3, third-best
· Driver Rating of 91.1, 10th-best

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.7
· Average Running Position of 12.3, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 98.1, fourth-best
· 233 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.191 mph, ninth-fastest
· 3,353 Laps in the Top 15 (68.3%), eighth-most
· 509 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas sports books enjoyed a great Daytona 500 with Joey Logano winning because hardly anyone bet him. The books all had Logano low to start with at 12/1, but when all the action started showing up on Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson, they raised Logano to 18/1 and still not many takers. Like a broken record, once again, the house does extremely well in a restrictor-plate race.

The Sprint Cup series travels to Atlanta’s 1.5-mile track this week where value is usually shifted back to the bettors because instead of 35 drivers having a chance to win, there are only about 15 with a legitimate shot. But this is year is a little different because of the new rules package that will see horsepower cut down from 850 to 725 as well as the rear spoiler shortened from eight to six inches.

As much of a crap shoot as Daytona was coming in, the cars were exactly the same as what was run last season so it wasn’t hard to forecast that Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing would be the cars to beat. They solidified that notion during practices, but still lost to Logano.

This week is much tougher because of less horsepower and down force. The cars figure to run a little more loose which may benefit a few drivers, but we still don’t know because there was no open testing in January to figure this new car out. The only testing that occurred happened with a few drivers in closed Goodyear tire testing. Most crew chiefs will be going off of notes from those sessions ran by a teammate and will be coming in cold with little idea of how they’ll run this weekend.

To get every team better acclimated to the new cars, NASCAR has scheduled five hours of testing on Thursday then they’ll start their regular race weekend schedule with practice and qualifying on Friday and the final two practices on Saturday.

So from an odds-making and bettors’ standpoint, you have to be careful here. The bookmaker can just lower odds on several drivers and wait to see what happens with testing. Regardless of the changes, the big-money teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske Racing all figure to be fast right off the hauler, but there is still that hint of uncertainty compared to other 1.5-mile tracks over the past three seasons. For the bettor, there is almost no reason to bet early because you could get stuck with a driver that doesn’t perform well in Thursday’s test.

The best bet scenario for wagering this week is to wait until at least seeing Thursday’s practice times. There is really nothing you can go off of that makes any bet a good one prior to Thursday. Several of the drivers haven’t even been able to drive the cars with the new rules package and Thursday will be their first go-around.

Here’s the NASCAR betting strategy I follow each week that I’ll share with you. First, you start off with your core group of drivers based on history at track. This list can be anywhere from 15 to 20 drivers, but it’ll be based on how they’ve done in recent history, the past five years and the past 10 years. Certain drivers like certain tracks and over the long haul, it’s easy to identify who the best are.

After that, you’ll look at current form. In the case this week, we only have one race and Daytona doesn’t apply in any way to Atlanta and the only nugget from last week that can be found is that someone like Logano could go all out for wins with no regret since he’s already made the Chase.

Past history and current form are two pieces of information that is the foundation to set weekly NASCAR odds, but it also applies to betting. I would then forecast practices based on similar past practices and come out with an early rating on each driver. And then after seeing the practices and start position, I would upgrade or downgrade each driver and finally have a finished product ready for action.

This week in Atlanta, there is only half of the equation in play here and the remainder won’t be known until Thursday with even more solid information gained Saturday as crew chiefs do the final tuning and set-up of the car we’ll see race Sunday.

There’s only half of the equation in, so why bet now? You’ll probably have a better chance of wining a bet by just taking red or black in roulette. Isn’t that why we all wager, because we think we have some type of advantage over the odds? So my advice this week is to slow play it and see what the books do and if they make a mistake after Thursday’s all-telling practice, then you should bet the drivers who shines that weren’t updated enough.

The most likely of candidates to be good again are the big names with the new rules package, but who knows? We didn’t see a Gibbs car win on any 1.5-mile track while Keselowski and Logano combined to win five of the 11. Kevin Harvick dominated on 1.5-miles last season even though he won only one of them. Kasey Kahne’s only win of 2014 came at Atlanta, which gave him three there for his career. Jeff Gordon also makes his final start at Atlanta, a track he made his Cup debut at in 1992. He’ll be going for his sixth career Atlanta win.

One driver I know I’ll be rooting for will be Brendan Gaughan driving the No. 62 Chevy, who is now Las Vegas’ only representative in the Cup Series driving with both Kyle and Kurt Busch out. Gaughan’s last Atlanta appearance in the Cup Series was in 2004 when he finished 18th.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1 #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)

NASCAR Sprint Cup Odds
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Jeff Gordon wasn't even on the odds board when he made his first career NASCAR Cup start at Atlanta Motor Speedway in 1992, but in what is likely to be his final start on the high-banked 1.5-mile layout, he's listed by the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook as the 6-to-1 co-favorite, along with Kevin Harvick, to win Sunday's QuikTrip 500.

This is no tip of the cap by the SuperBook to honor a four-time Cup champion who is retiring at the end of the season. Gordon was made the favorite because he has proven to be one of the best at Atlanta over his career with five wins and five runner-ups. Since NASCAR began compiling Loop data from each race in 2005, Gordon tops all drivers at Atlanta with a 106.0 rating; Jimmie Johnson is second at 104.9.

Among all drivers with at least two starts at Atlanta, Gordon's 9.9 average finish over the past 20 races is also the best among all drivers. In 41 career starts, he's averaged an 11.9 finish, including his start in the ’92 season finale (Hooter's 500), where he finished 31st (Bill Elliott won the race, but second-place finisher Alan Kulwicki won the season championship. The race was also the final start of Richard Petty's career. This NASCAR royalty story of one generation's end meeting another's beginning continues, as as Elliott's son -- Xfinity series driver Chase Elliott -- will be taking over Gordon's famed No. 24 next season).

Oddsmakers and bettors this week must forecast how these new cars will perform and who truly has the edge. We can look at drivers’ histories at Atlanta and on 1.5-mile tracks to get a base on who should be favored, but no one really knows who will come out strongest in cars with 125 less horsepower and spoilers two inches shorter than in 2014. All those notes with Penske winning five of 11 1.5-mile races or Kevin Harvick dominating during practices can be thrown out the window. This is an entirely new venture, and it's possible for a few unexpected names to show up near the top of Thursday's test session.

The only testing that occurred for the new rules package was for Goodyear tires, and those were closed to the public and media and no speeds were revealed. Only one driver from each team participated, so notes have to be shared among teammates. When the cars come off the hauler, crew chiefs will be getting to work immediately trying to find speed.

Chances are that Hendrick Motorsports drivers will have an edge – they always seem to whenever there are any changes. Stewart-Haas Racing's relationship with Hendrick also leads us to believe that Harvick might be as good as last season, but we won't fully know until Thursday.

Will Penske be as good as the team was in 2014? Even with the same package, it might have difficulty recreating the same success.

How about Joe Gibbs Racing? The team didn't win a race last season on 1.5-mile tracks after winning seven of 11 in 2013. They have to be better this year, right?

There are all kinds of questions around every team, and NASCAR leveling the playing field by banning testing may benefit some of the smaller ones. Maybe Roush Fenway Racing steps it up this year, or how about Richard Petty Motorsports?

Not all of the questions will be answered this weekend, but after Thursday's test and the weekend practices, we'll get a broader view of what to expect in Sunday's race, as well as for the 10 other 1.5-mile tracks this season, including Las Vegas in two weeks.

The best wagering strategy this week is to wait and see what happens in Thursday's testing. Odds on the favorites are low enough that they shouldn't change much, but you'll be looking for that surprise driver who may offer strong value before the books adjust. Maybe it's Greg Biffle (50/1) that comes out blazing fast or an entry from Richard Childress Racing, a team that went winless in 2014.

Be sure to check back over the weekend as we share everything learned from testing and practices that may assist your weekend NASCAR wagering.

Here's a look at the complete list of odds for Sunday's race:

FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500, ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY, MARCH 1, 2015

JEFF GORDON 6-1
KEVIN HARVICK 6-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 7-1
JOEY LOGANO 8-1
MATT KENSETH 8-1
DENNY HAMLIN 10-1
CARL EDWARDS 10-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 12-1
KASEY KAHNE 12-1
KYLE LARSON 15-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 30-1
TONY STEWART 30-1
RYAN NEWMAN 30-1
CLINT BOWYER 30-1
ERIK JONES 50-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50-1
GREG BIFFLE 50-1
PAUL MENARD 75-1
AUSTIN DILLON 75-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 100-1
TREVOR BAYNE 100-1
REGAN SMITH 100-1
SAM HORNISH JR 100-1
DANICA PATRICK 200-1
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500-1
CASEY MEARS 500-1
FIELD 100-1

Drivers to Watch - Atlanta
By Sportsbook.ag

Race: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Date-Time: Sunday, March 1 – 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Location: Hampton, Georgia

The NASCAR season continues when the racers head to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The 1.54-mile quad-oval track was first built in 1960 when it began having races and annually hosting this event. The venue is well known for having some of the fastest speeds on the circuit as the qualifying speeds average around 193 MPH on the 24-degree turns.

Last year, it was Kasey Kahne who was able to get the win here, but there has not been a back-to-back victor since Bobby Labonte did so in ’96-’97, so let’s take a look at a few drivers who could be celebrating in victory lane this weekend.

Drivers to Watch

Jeff Gordon (13/2) - Gordon has some of the highest odds in this race and for good reason as he has an average finish of 7.9 at AMS and has placed in the top-10 10 times over the last decade (14 races); including a victory in 2011. He won the first pole of this year at the Daytona 500 and led for 87 laps before finishing 27th and should be on the warpath with this being his final season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1) - Earnhardt Jr. is always a threat to win a race and he has placed in the top-five of this event three times in his past 14 attempts. Overall he has one victory and 12 top-10s at this racetrack in his career and has twice earned a pole. His 1,119 green flag passes ranks him as third and he has averaged a finish of 12.3, so he is certainly a solid choice to drop a few units on.

Kyle Larson (14/1) - The youngster has won rookie of the year in nearly every circuit he’s joined, including getting the award for the Sprint Cup Series last season. He has 17 top-10 finishes in the Sprint Cup over 41 career races run but is still searching for his first win. Last year he started out with a solid pole position of third before pulling out an eighth place finish in his first visit to AMS. If he is able to get another great starting spot expect him to do more with it and a top-five finish is not out of the question.

Greg Biffle (40/1) - Biffle may be past his prime, but his 19 career victories are no joke and his odds in this one would provide for a nice payout if he was able to regain his former glory. He still ranked 14th on this circuit last year despite having no wins and brings in 10 career top-10s and a pole at this track. Giving the 45-year-old a chance in this one could be the right choice as he is being overlooked.

Trevor Bayne (75/1) - Bayne flew out of the gates in this circuit when he became the youngest winner of the Daytona 500 back in 2011. Since then he has failed to get another victory, but was solid in his only race in Atlanta, starting deep in the field at 32nd and made plenty of quality moves to get up to 16th when it was all said and done. This is a risky selection, but there is lightning in a pan here and if he can perform better in poles, he should have a shot at a top-10.

Sportsbook.ag - Odds to win Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Jeff Gordon 6/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Brad Keselowski 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kyle Larson 15/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Tony Stewart 30/1
Erik Jones 50/1
Greg Biffle 50/1
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1
Austin Dillon 75/1
Paul Menard 75/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
Danica Patrick 200/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Justin Allgaier 500/1

Check out more NASCAR Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Driver Handicaps: Atlanta
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 with a look at some detailed driver notes and stats at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Atlanta

• Five-time winner Jeff Gordon has finished in the top 10 in 11 of his last 15 starts.
• Three-time winner Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with more than one start with an 11.5 average finish.
• Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth have posted respective average finishes of 6.0 and 7.0 in the two races since the introduction of the Gen-6 car and current tire combination for the track.
• Carl Edwards, who will make his track debut with Joe Gibbs Racing, has finished in the top five in five of the last seven races when he's been running at the finish, including a win in 2008.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races, including a win in 2012.
• Kevin Harvick dominated the race last season, leading 195 laps from the pole, up until a late-race turn of events that saw him get caught up in a multi-car accident.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Atlanta

• Joey Logano led all drivers in average finish (7.4) at 1.5-mile tracks last season. His Penske teammate Brad Keselowski led all drivers in wins with three.
• Jamie McMurray (191.549), Kyle Larson (190.195), Harvick (189.850), Clint Bowyer (189.720) and Kenseth (189.675) were the top five in the opening test session at Atlanta. Testing Speeds
• Kasey Kahne recorded his third win at Atlanta last season, snapping a streak of four consecutive finishes of 23rd or worse.
• Larson finished eighth at Atlanta last season and posted a 12.1 average finish in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has posted a 9.5 average finish in the last two Atlanta races.
• David Ragan will fill-in for the injured Kyle Busch in the No. 18 Toyota and Regan Smith will return behind the wheel of the No. 41 Chevrolet.
• Atlanta is the site of Danica Patrick's best career finish in sixth.
• Paul Menard (12th fastest in opening test session at AMS), AJ Allmendinger, Keselowski and Kenseth were the only drivers to get some on-track time prior to Thursday's test session at Atlanta when they participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
• Tony Stewart will look to turn around his recent record at 1.5-mile tracks with crew chief Chad Johnston, who led Martin Truex Jr. to consecutive top fives at AMS in 2012 and 2013.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Larson
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Matt Kenseth

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in Last Five Races at Atlanta

Jeff Gordon: Leads all drivers with a 7.8 average finish in the last five races at Atlanta. His last of five wins came in 2011, which marked his 85th of his 93 career wins. Gordon finished 17th last season, snapping a streak of three consecutive finishes of sixth or better. This weekend, Gordon will return in the same car he led a race-high 161 laps en route to a 10th-place finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Kyle Larson: Finished eighth in his first start at Atlanta last season. Larson ranked seventh among all drivers last year in average finish (12.1) in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks - his Atlanta finish was one of six top 10s.

Matt Kenseth: Has posted an 8.6 average finish in his last five starts at Atlanta. Kenseth led 53 laps last year and finished second, to lower his average finish in two track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing to 7.0. With no testing in place, Kenseth was one of the drivers that were able to participate in a Goodyear Tire test at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month. Last year, Kenseth ranked fourth among all drivers in average finish (9.9) in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Martin Truex Jr.: Has posted an 11.2 average finish in his last five starts at Atlanta. Truex Jr's 23rd-place finish in his first track start with Furniture Row Racing was his first finish outside the top 15 in that span. His lone top 10 on a 1.5-mile track last season came at Kansas Speedway.

Carl Edwards: Has posted a 13.2 average finish in his last five Atlanta starts. Edwards's last of three wins at Atlanta came in the 2008 fall race. This weekend will mark Edwards' first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing. With the testing ban, Edwards was able to turn laps on the 1.5-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway during a Goodyear Tire test in December. This will mark Edwards' first intermediate track race with crew chief Darian Grubb, who helped lead Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, respectively, to a wins at Atlanta in 2010 and 2012. Last year with Roush Fenway Racing, Edwards posted an 11.5 average finish in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Has posted a 13.4 average finish and has yet to lead a lap in his last five Atlanta starts. Earnhardt's last of third top 10s in 10 track starts with Hendrick Motorsports cam in 2013, in eighth. With the testing ban, Earnhardt was able to turn laps on the 1.5-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway during a Goodyear Tire test in December. This weekend, Earnhardt will pilot a new car (chassis No. 920) in his first intermediate track start paired with crew chief Greg Ives.

Jimmie Johnson: Is coming off his third top five in the last five races to help give him a 14.2 average finish in that span. Johnson's last of three wins came in 2007 when he swept both races. Last year, Johnson posted two wins and a 12.2 average finish in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Johnson will return in the same car (chassis No. 910) that he won at Texas with in the fall.

Kevin Harvick: Has posted a 14.6 average finish in the last five races at Atlanta. Harvick won the pole and led 195 laps last year in his first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing, but finished 19th. Harvick's only win at Atlanta came in his first start there in 2001 with Richard Childress Racing, but has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 843) that he won with at Darlington and Phoenix last season.

Ryan Newman: Newman finished seventh last season in his first track start with Richard Childress Racing to help give him a 15.0 average finish in the last five Atlanta races. Last season, Newman has the third-best average finish (9.5) in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks. This weekend, Newman will debut a new car (chassis No. 486) in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Jamie McMurray: Has a 15.6 average finish in the last five races at Atlanta, but has no top 10s or laps led in that span. McMurray did end 2014 strong at 1.5-mile tracks with three consecutive top-five finishes. This weekend will mark his first intermediate track start with crew chief Matt McCall.

Trevor Bayne: Has made one Cup Series start at Atlanta, finishing 16th in 2012 with the Wood Brothers. Bayne's crew chief Bob Osborne went to Victory Lane at Atlanta in both events in 2005 as well as the fall event in 2008 with Carl Edwards.

Tony Stewart: Stewart has posted a 16.8 average finish in the four of the last five races at Atlanta, including a win in the 2010 race. Last year, Stewart only recorded one top 10 in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Joey Logano: Has posted a 17.0 average finish in his last five Atlanta starts. Logano's last two starts have come with Team Penske and he led 78 laps en route to a second-place finish in 2013. Last year, Logano posted the best average finish (7.4) in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks, which included two wins and led 374 laps led.

Greg Biffle: Finished 10th last season to lower his average finish to 17.6 in the last five Atlanta races. Last year's finish was one of only two top 10s for Biffle in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Has posted a 18.0 average finish in two Atlanta starts. Last year, Stenhouse failed to finish in the top 10 in the 11 races at 1.5-mile tracks. He will race the same car that Carl Edwards finished 34th with at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Denny Hamlin: Has finished eighth or better, including a win in 2012, when running at the finish in the last five Atlanta races. This will mark Hamlin's first intermediate track race with crew chief Dave Rogers, who helped lead Kyle Busch to a win at Atlanta in 2013.

Danica Patrick: Finished sixth last season to lower her average finish to 18.7 in three Atlanta starts. Patrick's Atlanta finish was one of two top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks in 2015. The best finish she scored with current crew chief Daniel Knost at 1.5-mile tracks was 18th at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Patrick will return in that same car (chassis No. 908) she drove at HMS this weekend.

Aric Almirola: Finished ninth last season to lower his average finish to 20.5 in four Atlanta starts. Almirola's ninth-place finish was one of two top 10s last season at 1.5-mile tracks.

AJ Allmendinger: Last of two top 10s came with Richard Petty Motorsports in 2011. Allmendinger, who did not record at top 10 at a 1.5-mile track last season, participated in a Goodyear Tire test at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month.

Brad Keselowski: An engine issue and crash in the last two respective races raised his average finish to 24.0 in six Atlanta starts. Keselowski led all drivers with three wins at 1.5-mile tracks last season and was second in laps led with 490. Last month, Keselowski was one of four drivers that participated in a Goodyear Tire test at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Chevrolet Shines During Atlanta Testing on Thursday
Kevin Harvick
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Since the 2014 Sprint Cup season ended in November, the main topic of concern for those who make odds and bet on NASCAR was how the five dozen changes to the rules package would affect cars on 1.5-mile tracks. There was no preseason testing, and nothing was revealed at Daytona Speedweeks, so Thursday’s two test sessions at Atlanta Motor Speedway offered the first look at cars with 125 less horsepower than they carried in 2014 and a rear spoiler that is 2 inches shorter.

Based on the speeds of both sessions, it doesn’t look like much has changed from 2014 in terms of speed and who has the most of it. In fact, Jamie McMurray’s fast lap at 191.549 mph was quicker than Kevin Harvick’s 190 mph pole-winning speed from Atlanta last fall.

The temperatures were much cooler on Thursday than they were last August, but the dropoff in speeds isn’t nearly as dramatic as anticipated. McMurray’s speed in the early stages of the first 85-minute session held on to be the fastest on the day, and his teammate Kyle Larson was right behind him at 190.195 mph as the second fastest, which upgrades the ratings of both Chip Ganassi Racing cars. Both were good on 1.5s last season, but they were really good Thursday.

In the second session, Jeff Gordon topped the charts at 188.424 mph (he also had the best 10-consecutive lap average), showing once again that when NASCAR changes the car set-up, Hendrick Motorsports will be ahead of the curve. The four Hendrick cars all posted times within the top-11 during the final 115-minute session.

A few quick testing observations:

Kevin Harvick is going to be fast again, just like he was last season when he dominated every practice session on 1.5-mile tracks. He was third fastest in both sessions. Might he be in store for his first Atlanta win since 2001?

Chevrolet cars produced nine of the fastest 12 laps in the first session and the top-six speeds in the late session. They combined to win six of the 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2014.

Ford looks to be a bit behind. The fastest Ford in the first session was 17th (Joey Logano), and in the second session Greg Biffle came in 12th.

Should Penske Racing be worried? Penske drivers won five of the 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks last season and practiced extremely well all year, but both Logano and Brad Keselowski were very ordinary Thursday. It’s just a test, and who knows what they were trying out, but no one wants to be slow in any situation. We’ll follow this closely over the weekend when practices begin because both cars were considered among the favorites to win on Sunday.

Toyota showed some competitive speeds, which is already an improvement from its 1.5-mile package last year. After winning seven of 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks in 2013, Toyota didn’t win any in 2014. Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards all looked strong for Joe Gibbs Racing. Clint Bowyer also looked much better as well with the fourth fastest lap (189.720 mph) in the second session.

Richard Childress Racing had a good test with Ryan Newman posting the second-fastest lap (188.418 mph) in the second session. This is great news for the team considering it didn’t win a race in 2014.

Everyone else fell right about where we might expect. This is just a test, so let’s not make too much out of it, but it at least gives us a base for handicapping and setting odds because prior to Thursday there was a lot of uncertainty.

During Friday’s qualifying and Saturday’s practices things could be much different as most teams will likely use a completely different car or at least a different engine than what was tested. But now the teams have some first-hand notes to apply – not only for the weekend, but for the next few months of races on 1.5-mile tracks. The formula to winning a season championship starts by being good on the type of track that there are the most of, and there are 11 races on the cookie-cutters during the season.

NASCAR Practice notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

There appeared to be a huge gap between Kevin Harvick, our No. 1 rated driver for Sunday's QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and the No. 2 driver, but he blew an engine midway through Saturday's final practice session. Now he'll have to start from the rear, which slightly diminishes his overall race rating, but not enough to displace him from the top of our chart.

If this were a 200-mile race, then he would downgraded severely, but he’ll have plenty of time to race his way to the front.

Harvick had an outstanding week between testing and practices at Atlanta and also has a superb chassis, refitted to meet the 2015 rules package requirements. When looking at the chassis’ 2014 resume, you'll understand why we give Harvick such high pre-race marks even though he's starting dead last. The chassis led 748 laps season and captured wins at Darlington and Phoenix. Even with all the changes this season, the thing still came out and rolled like nothing had changed, including running third fastest in both test sessions Thursday, second in practice and qualifying on Friday, and then fastest on Saturday before the engine blew.

Harvick hasn't won at Atlanta since his dramatic victory over Jeff Gordon as a rookie in 2001 -- by a margin of just 0.006 of a second -- but he could double his win total at the track Sunday.

Denny Hamlin is just below Harvick in our ratings, as it looks like he and his Joe Gibbs Racing gang might have benefited the most from the new rules package. They were very ordinary (mildly stated) last season on 1.5-mile tracks after blowing the doors off of everyone in 2013 with seven wins in 11 races.

Hamlin had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average in the final practice session and should be battling for the lead most of the race. If you could make a bet on who would lead the most laps, Hamlin would be your guy. The 2012 Atlanta winner could also be a nice investment on future prices because if he's good on Sunday, he'll likely be good on the other 1.5-mile tracks. Five of those 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks are in the Chase.

The best long shot in the race is Jamie McMurray at 30-to-1. McMurray tested and practiced well and is our 11th rated driver for the Sunday.

Be sure to pay close attention on Sunday because it'll help you get a head start on handicapping next week’s race at Atlanta's sister track in Las Vegas.